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Joel Alter
Course: ECON 302
1-Introduction
long-run the dynamics between FDI, openness and macroeconomic factors shows
consistency.
The current study uses market size, openness, total investment, indirect
taxes, real exchange rate, military expenditures and developmental expenditures as
explanatory variables to see their impact in attracting FDI in Pakistan. The expected signs
for market size, openness, total investment, labor force and developmental expenditures
are positive whereas for indirect taxes, military expenditures and exchange rate the
expected signs are negative. The objective of this research is to estimate the results of
these policy variables and to suggest the policy relevance to attract FDI in Pakistan. The
paper is divided into different sections section 2 consists of literature review, section 3
consists of methodology, section 4 consists of description of variables, section 5 consists
of interpretation of estimated results and section 6 consists of conclusion and policy
relevance.
2- LITERATURE REVIEW
Nishat and Anjum (2004) observed that Over the past ten years foreign
direct investment has increased at least twice as rapidly as trade, Nishat and Anjum
(2004) examined that most of the developing countries have introduced the ongoing
process of integration of the world economy and liberalization of the economies which
have increased the competition of inward FDI in these countries. The study analyzed that
market-based economic reform policies initiated by Pakistan government has increased
the FDI in Pakistan since that time. Nishat and Anjum (2004) took the tariff rate,
exchange rate, tax rate, credit to private sector and index of general share price, wages
and per capita GDP to test for relative demand for labor and market size as explanatory
variables to analyze the effect of FDI in Pakistan. The study also takes scrutiny that
which government policies are attracting FDI and which policies deter FDI in Pakistan.
According to Nishat and Anjum (2004), political environment plays an important part in
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capturing the brains of foreign investors. It has been seen that due to fluctuations and
inconsistency in governments and their policies in Pakistan the FDI remained low
compared to other developing countries. Nishat and Anjum (2004), empirically identifies
the determinants of growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan over the period
of 1961-2003. The study focuses on the role of these policy variables in attracting FDI
and determining its growth both in short-run and long-run in Pakistan. The study focuses
to analyze how different variables or indicators reflecting trade, fiscal and financial sector
liberalization attract FDI in Pakistan. Nishat and Anjum (2004) used the co-integration
and error correction techniques to identify the variables in explaining the FDI in Pakistan.
The empirical results of the estimation are according to the prior expectations. The
expected sings of the variables were correct and are statistically significant except for
wage rate and share price index which shows the insignificant behavior of stock market
index. It also shows that the stock market is not explaining the growth of FDI inflows in
Pakistan. Thus the estimated results of Nishat and Anjum (2004) research give some
evidence that reducing import tariffs and corporate tax rate would positively affect the
growth of FDI. Moreover, the coefficient of exchange rate is positive implying that when
rupee appreciates, FDI increases as investors see it as a good sign for the economy and
expect high returns. Also the sign of GDP is positive, it means that the size of the market
has increased and GDP is attracting FDI in Pakistan. The study also includes some lagged
dependent variables showed positive signs and statistically significant. It means the short-
run dynamics of inward FDI are influenced by previous development of FDI.
variables. The study also uses Jhonson-Juselius test for co- integration by error correction
model ECM to test the significance level of the variables. Using OLS techniques the
expected sign is used for cost of capital is significant and negative. It shows cost affecting
factors determine FDI in Pakistan. Tariff and exchange rate have also expected signs and
have positive effects on inward FDI. The expected sign for GDP and GNP per capita
income is positive it shows that size of the market of Pakistan is increasing and attracting
FDI inflows to Pakistan. The result of political dummy is highly significant and positive
which indicate that a democratic regime is more likely to attract FDI. The study
concludes that statistical results found the selected variables(GDP, GNP per capita,Cost
of Capital, Tariff, Exchange rate, Political instability) to be highly significant in the
long-run with the expected signs.
of tariff and wage rate are statistically insignificant. It shows that tariff rates are
meaningless. Though wage rate is not high in Hungry as compare to Eastern Europe but it
is attracting foreign investors in Hungry. The signs of imports and exports are statistically
insignificant. It shows that trade policy of Hungry is not attracting FDI. Similarly, the
estimated results in the case of China have expected results. Most of the variables are
found to be statistically significant. The sign of the GDP is positive and for both cost of
the capital is negative. The result also shows positive correlation between FDI and low
labor cost. The result shows negative relation between FDI and tariff barriers.
Majeed and Syed (2006) observed that the relationship between FDI and domestic
investment is insignificant; it shows the poor performance of domestic investment in
south Asian countries. This shows that local investors are not investing in the host
countries. The effect of taxes is negative and insignificant on FDI, it depicts that lack of
fiscal incentives to the foreign investors and it is a hurdle for FDI in south Asian
countries. The study suggest that in order to attract Foreign Direct Investment the host
country should adopt the policies which attain macroeconomic stability and friendly
business environment. Stable exchange rate policy should be introduced to attract foreign
investment. The study concludes that the government should invest on productive sector
more in order to capture the mind of foreign investors to invest in the host country.
favorable for investment in Pakistan. Openness of the economy shows positive relation
with FDI in Pakistan. The study concludes that social and political factors are highly
significant and have negative effect on FDI. It means the political environment is not
favoring or attracting foreign investors to Pakistan. The study emphasis on the policies to
make a stable political environment in Pakistan. Such policies should be made that attract
FDI in Pakistan. One of the major determinants that deter FDI in Pakistan is political
instability.
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3- METHODOLOGY
Justification of FDI determinants and their expected signs: The justification of the
determinants of FDI in Pakistan has been made in the following lines.
Market Size: According to the economic theory market size of an economy is positively
related to the Foreign Direct Investment because most of the economies use production
benefits policies for foreign investors, Majeed and Syed (2006) quoted, Root (1979). A
large market size attracts foreign investors to invest in the host country. Real GDP is used
as a proxy to estimate the effect of market size of Pakistan on Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI). Therefore we expect a positive sign of market size in terms of FDI.
Openness: The ratio of (import + export) has been used as proxy for openness. We
expect a positive sign of Openness with respect to FDI according to the economic theory.
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In case of market seeking investment the trade restriction can have a positive sign with
FDI. Due to the liberalization of the economy the expected sign of Openness is positive.
Total Investment: Total Investment includes investment from abroad and domestically.
The expected sign of total investment with respect to FDI is positive. Foreign investors
seek to invest in those countries whose total investment is increasing significantly.
Therefore we expect a direct relationship between FDI and total investment.
Indirect Taxes: Indirect Taxes have a negative impact on FDI. So it shows that FDI and
indirect taxes have negative relationship. Foreign investor deters to invest in those
countries that have high rate of indirect taxes. So we expect a negative sign of indirect
taxes in case of FDI.
Labor Force: Another determinant of Foreign Direct Investment is the labor force
participation rate. Labor force means the availability of labor as being particularly
imported for labor-intensive, efficiency seeking Foreign Direct Investment-rather than the
cost of labor. So economic theory suggest positive relationship between FDI and labor
force. So we expect a positive sign of labor force.
Exchange Rate: The coefficient of exchange rate is ambiguous in many studies. Its sign
is expected to be positive when the foreign investors consider it as lower cost of capital
and negative if the foreign investors are considering high returns on their investments. An
economy whose currency is depreciating will not attract FDI, Majeed and Syed (2006)
quoted, Akhtar (2000). The use of real exchange rate as compare to nominal exchange
rate on the bases of methodological ground affected by inflationary impacts, Majeed and
Syed (2006) quoted, Ragazzi (1973). In imports oriented countries foreign investors like
to invest more. When their will be trade barriers on imports such kind of ventures become
more desirables. So TNCs find it attractive to produce locally. Taking under
consideration all these facts we expect a negative sign of real exchange with FDI in case
of Pakistan.
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^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
FDI=α +β1 RGDP+β2 OP+β3 INDIR+β4 LF+β5 RER+β6 T INVES+β7 ME+β8
^
DEX+ ui
INDIR=Indirect Taxes
LF=labor force
T INVES=Total Investment
ME=military expenditures
DEX=Developmental Expenditures
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4-Description of variables:
Foreign Direct Investment is the net inflows towards the host region
and economy. It also includes inflows of foreign investment to the host country. FDI data
has been collected from UN Statistical Division from 1970-2005 in US million $,
according to the World Bank estimates. The data is in 1999-2000 base year.
GDP (MP) is the sum of gross value added by all domestic producers in
an economy. GDP (MP) data has been collected from, Pakistan Statistical Division, FBS,
in million rupees. Data has been converted into 1999-2000 base year. After that GDP
deflator has been used and than GDP (MP) is divided by GDP deflator and it is converted
into Real GDP. The research uses Real GDP as an explanatory variable.
Openness is the ratio of export plus import. Export is the value of all
those goods and services which have been produced with in the host country and send
abroad in different countries. It shows the economic growth of a country. Import is the
value of goods and services which have been imported from abroad. The data of export
and import has been collected from, Pakistan Statistical Year Book; 2006. The data is in
1999-2000 base year. Export and Import data is in local currency million rupees.
Total Investment includes all the investments which have been made from
abroad and all the domestic investments to the host country. The data of total investment
has been collected from Pakistan Statistical Division; FBS. Data is from year 1970-2005
and is in 1999-2000 base year. The data of total investment is in local currency million
rupees. Total investment is used as an independent variable to see its impact on Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI).
Indirect taxes are the taxes made on the consumption of the people of the
host country. Indirect taxes include taxes made on custom duties, federal excise duties,
sales taxes and etc. The data of indirect taxes has been collected from; 50 years of
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Pakistan in statistics. The data of indirect taxes is from year 1970-2005. The data is in
1999-2000 base year. It is in local currency million rupees.
Labor Force includes all the employed labor force and unemployed labor
force of the country. Labor force is the supply of labor to the labor market. It shows the
skill level of the labor force of the country. The data of labor force has been collected
from; 50 years of Pakistan in statistics, population and labor force. The study uses data
from year 1970-2005 in 1999-2000 base year.
Real exchange rates are the exchange rates determined by the stock exchange
market. It shows that the currency of the host country is appreciating or depreciating. It
also shows the efficiency of the stock market of the host country. The data of nominal
exchange rate has been collected and than with the help of USA’s CPI and Pakistan’s CPI
it has been converted into real exchange rate. The data has been collected from; UN
Statistical Division. The study uses data of real exchange rate from year 1970-2005 in
1999-2000 base year. The data of real exchange rate is in US $.
Military expenditures are the expenditures made on the armed forces of the
country. It does not include any developmental expenditure. Military expenditures show
that how much budget of the host country has been made on the armed forces. The data
of military expenditure has been collected from; 50 years of Pakistan in statistics, public
finance. The study uses data from year 1970-2005 in 1999-2000 base year. The data is in
million rupees.
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OLS method has been used to determine the results. Regression has been run
on the explanatory variables against the dependent variables to calculate the results. The
value of R-square is very high. It turns out to be 98%. This shows the explanatory power
of the mode. So 98% of the variation is explained by the explanatory variables. The value
of Durbin-Watson is turn out to be 2.142 which is in the acceptable range.
Real GDP is used as proxy for the size of the market. Real GDP is used as
lead variable. It turns out to be highly significant. The estimated result of the RGDP is
according to the prior expectation. It shows the growing size of the market of Pakistan
economy. The size of the Pakistan market is attracting FDI in Pakistan to a significant
level. Real GDP is a strong indicator of a country’s economic growth. The study shows a
stable economic environment that attracts foreign investors to the host country. The size
of the Pakistan market is providing opportunities for the foreign investors to invest in
Pakistan and is offering a higher demand and absorptive capacity in the economy. The
estimated result of the Real GDP is strongly attracting Foreign Direct Investment in
Pakistan. So we can conclude on the basis of these results that Pakistan’s size of the
market is leading towards success in attracting the Foreign Direct Investment to the host
country.
The ratio of (import + export) is used as proxy for openness. It shows the level of
trade liberalization of the country. It turns out to be statistically insignificant at 10% level
of significance. The MNCs like to invest in the country that has sound trade policies and
has less trade barriers. The liberalization in the trade policy provides benefits to MNCs to
import raw material, equipments and plant machinery and also export promotion
facilities. The research shows that trade policies of Pakistan is not facilitating MNCs. It
shows that openness of the Pakistan economy is not attracting Foreign Direct Investment
in Pakistan. So we can say that liberalization of Pakistan economy in trade policies is
insignificant for attracting FDI to Pakistan.
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Variable Coefficients
C -1951.640
RGDP 0.001009*
T INVES 0.015573**
INDIR -0.022280**
OP -0.002889
LF 8.953050
RER -65.58119**
ME 0.016177
DEX 0.045718**
R-square 0.981827
ESTIMATED RESULTS
• * 1 % level of significance
• ** 5 % level of significance
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The sign of the total investment is according to the prior expectations. It turns
out to be statistically significant at 5% level of significance with positive sign. Total
investment is an important indicator in determining the behavior of FDI. It shows the
investment facilities and environment of a country. Foreign investors will seek to invest
in that country whose total investment is increasing. The estimated result shows that total
investment is attracting FDI at significant level. Total investment has a huge impact in
attracting FDI in Pakistan. It means that MNCs are attracting in Pakistan for the purpose
of investment. Pakistan with its high total investment is attracting FDI to great extent.
Foreign investors will avoid investing in those countries that have high indirect
taxes. The estimated sign of indirect tax is according to the prior expectations. The
estimated result of indirect tax is significant at 5% level of significance. It shows the
fiscal incentives given to foreign investors. It means that the history of indirect taxes is
not attracting FDI in Pakistan. Because more the custom duties, excise duties and sales
taxes less will be the FDI. The result shows that Pakistan’s indirect tax system is not
suitable for FDI in Pakistan. Pakistan government is not giving fiscal incentives to the
foreign investors.
The estimated result of labor force is not according to the prior expectations.
The result of labor force is statistically insignificant at 10% level of significance. Foreign
investor seeks to invest in the country whose labor force is skilled, productive, efficient
and hard working. The estimated result shows the low level of skilled workers in
Pakistan. The study shows that Pakistan’s labor force is not highly skilled, productive and
efficient. The estimated result shows that labor force of Pakistan is not determining and
attracting FDI in Pakistan due to its low skilled level. Labor force of Pakistan is not
leading towards success in attracting FDI in future.
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The estimated result of real exchange rate is according to the prior expectations.
The result of real exchange rate is statistically significant at 5% level of significance.
Depreciation of the currency tends to increase the prices of goods and services imported
from abroad and decrease the price of exports. It shows that country is in deficit and has
burden of foreign debts. The study shows that Pakistan rupee is depreciating, which
means that the value of imports is increasing and the value of exports is decreasing. It
shows the macroeconomic instability of a country and also shows that the foreign debts
of Pakistan are increasing. It decreases FDI in host country. The foreign investors avoid
investing in that country whose currency is depreciating. So the history of Pakistan’s real
exchange rate is not determining and attracting FDI in Pakistan.
to attract the foreign investors. It means that developmental expenditures made by the
government are attracting FDI in Pakistan.
The research uses FDI as dependent variable and Real GDP, Openness, Total
Investment, Indirect Taxes, Labor Force, Real Exchange Rate Military Expenditures,
Developmental Expenditures as independent variables. The regression has been run using
OLS method. The estimated results of size of market, total investment, indirect taxes, real
exchange rate and developmental expenditures are statistically significant and openness,
labor force and military expenditures turn out to be insignificant with respect to Foreign
Direct Investment in case of Pakistan.
Thus the study suggests that size of the market (RGDP) is a positively attracting
FDI in Pakistan. Openness is negative and insignificant in attracting FDI in Pakistan, so
in order to attract FDI Pakistan government has to remove the trade barriers and should
liberalize the trade policies of the economy to significant level. Total investment is
positively attracting FDI in Pakistan positively and significantly. Indirect taxes turn out to
be negative and significant; it shows the lack of fiscal incentives to the foreign investors.
Thus the study suggests that more tax incentives should be given to the foreign investors
in order to attract FDI. Such policies should be made which give more tax incentives to
the foreign investors to attract the brains of foreign investors in order to invest in
Pakistan. Labor force is positive and insignificant in case of Pakistan which suggests the
low level of skilled workers, therefore the study concludes that Pakistan government
should made such policies and should introduce new techniques in labor force that
enhance their skills and productivity in order to attract FDI. Real exchange rate is
negative and significant. The study suggests that the stock exchange market of Pakistan
has to play its role and has to work efficiently in order to capture FDI in Pakistan.
Pakistan government is expending more than 70% of its budget on military. It shows that
Pakistan is not sending too much on economic development. The study suggests that
Pakistan has to decrease its non-developmental expenditures in order to attract FDI.
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References
Aqeel Anjum and Nishat Mohammad (2004), “The Determinants of FDI in Pakistan”,
The Pakistan Developmental Review. Vol 43:4 Part II, pp 651-664
Dar, A.Hamayon, Presley, R.John and Malik, H.Shahid (2004), “Determinants of FDI
inflows to Pakistan”, Economics Research Paper .Vol 04, pp 20-33.
Hakro, Nawaz Ahmed and Ghumro, Ahmed Akhtiar (1999), “Foreign Direct
Investment, Determinants and Policy Analysis: Case study of Pakistan”, Quaterly
Magazine of the IMF. Vol 36, pp 1-40.
Majeed, Tariq Muhammad and Syed, Haider Shabib (2006), “The Behavior of FDI in
South Asian Countries”, Economic Journals FCCU. Vol 2, pp 18-27.
Shah, Zahir and Ahmed, Masood Qazi (2003), “The Determinants of FDI in Pakistan:
an Empirical Investigation”, The Pakistan Developmental Review. Vol 42:4 Part II,
pp 697-714.
Wang, Quan Zhen and Swain, J.Nigel (1996), “The Determinants of FDI in
Transforming Economies: Empirical Evidence from Hungary and China”, Review of
World Economics.Vol 132, pp 359-381.
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Joel Alter
09-12132
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
ECON 302
SEC A