Science behind global warming 1

Science behind Global warming

Global warming means increase in earth surface air temperatures. The increased air temperature

has several effects that degrade the quality of life on earth.

Higher temperatures lead to glacier melts with consequent rise in sea levels. It also leads to

changes in the quantity and timing of rainfall, affecting agricultural yields. Other consequences

include extreme weather conditions, desertification of large land areas and increases in

mosquito-borne diseases.

Global warming is a problem that is heating up. It is caused mainly by us, humans, but natural

global warming will occur no matter what. However not to such a degree as we have caused

because of industrialization. If nothing is done to stop it, catastrophes will occur. Global

warming cannot be blamed for heat waves or floods, those happen on their own, but the constant

temperature change can. Global warming is something that is constantly growing. It is

accountable for the average temperature rise in the world; and that is worse than having extreme

heat waves. Some effects of global warming are already taking place but much worse are soon to

come. Mt. Kilimanjaro has lost 75% of its ice cap since 1912. Glacier Park in Montana will lose

all of its glaciers by 2070 if nothing is done. But what is to come is much worse; it will harm all

of the world’s oceans by bleaching the coral, it will die and erosion which will cause some sea

side homes to become new homes for fish. The coral will also bring the economy down because

it alone is a 30 billion dollar fishing and tourism industry. Animals could also die if the

temperature rises too quickly because they cannot adapt fast enough. Extreme weather will cause

floods tornados and hurricanes. Global warming will also melt the polar ice caps causing the sea

level to raise sinking islands, cities, and island resort towns (Stuart R. Gaffin of Global Warming

Opposing Viewpoints). Diseases also spread faster in heat, which would affect us because it will

bring over diseases from Africa like Malaria and Dengue. Greenhouse gasses are the problem
 Science behind global warming 2

that is heating up the globe. When the sun emits light on the earth, the atmosphere reflects about

30% of the sun’s rays back to space and the atmosphere absorbs another 30%. The 40% left over

reaches the earth. 15% of that is reflected off the earth’s surface back into space, so only about

25% of the heat from the sun heats the earth’s surface. But greenhouse gasses are causing more

of the sun’s rays to heat the earth. When the 15% that are reflected off the earth and hit green

house gasses in the atmosphere, they are reflected back to the earth, therefore rising the average

surface temperature of the earth. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the leading causes of

greenhouse gasses. They are caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as wood, oil, natural gas,

coal, and using just about everything that is in your house. Methane is a factor not to be left out,

it happens when garbage decomposes and in the transportation of coal and natural gas. But some

are still skeptical of this problem ruining our world. If it were true that Global Warming is

currently destroying our earth there would be much more research being done and a lot more

media coverage of the problem. This problem is not a huge one currently, but it is starting to get

going. Minor effects of this problem have already started such as glaciers melting, coral dying,

and our ozone layer is gaining more Greenhouse Gasses. The US isn’t showing too much care

for these issues, but it is necessary for us to find a solution to leave this planet inhabitable for

future generations. (see Reference, 1) ( Global warming, http://www.associatedcontent.com)

Global Warming Causes

Earth absorbs most of the heat radiated by the sun and reflects back the remaining part.

Greenhouse gases such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and ozone trap the reflected

heat. Thus prevented from escaping, the reflected heat adds to the warmth of surface air.

An overwhelming majority of our scientific community agrees that human activities have a

significant impact on global warming. Factories emitting smoke, fossil-fuel-burning vehicles and

even the burning of firewood lead to increased emission of carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is
 Science behind global warming 3

one of the "greenhouse" gases that trap the heat from the sun.

The warmer air leads to increased water evaporation, and water vapor is another greenhouse gas

that traps the heat. Another human activity that leads to global warming is the felling of trees for

timber and firewood.

Global Warming Effects

A. Changes in Atmospheric Composition

The composition of the atmosphere has changed markedly since pre-industrial times: CO2

concentration has risen from about 270–280 parts per million (ppm) by volume to over 360 ppm

today, CH4 has risen from about 700 parts per billion by volume (ppb) to over 1700 ppb, and

N2O has increased from about 270 ppb to over 310 ppb. Halocarbons that do not exist naturally

are now present in substantial amounts. The pre-industrial levels of these gases are known

because the composition of ancient air trapped in bubbles in ice cores from Antarctica can be

measured directly (Etheridge et al., 1998; Güllük et al., 1998). These ice cores show that the

changes since pre-industrial times far exceed any changes that occurred in the preceding 10,000

years.

Human activities — fossil-fuel burning, land-use changes, agricultural activity, the production

and use of halocarbons, etc. — are the dominant cause of these changes. This is undeniable for

halocarbons like CFC11 and CFC12 because these gases do not occur naturally. For CO2, CH4,

and N2O, the human role is virtually certain too, partly because of the rapidity of changes since

pre-industrial times. For CO2, analyses of radiocarbon (carbon-14) changes prove that emissions

from fossil-fuel combustion (coal, oil, and gas) have been a major contributor to the

concentration increase. Land-use changes (mainly associated with deforestation) have also

contributed significantly. For CH4, the primary sources have been agriculture (rice paddies),
 Science behind global warming 4

animal husbandry, land-fill emissions, and leakage associated with fossil-fuel production and

distribution. The main source for N2O appears to be linked to the use of nitrogen compounds in

agriculture as fertilizers. For these three gases, their total emissions are reasonably well defined.

Their emissions “budgets” (i.e., the breakdown into different source categories) are more

uncertain. The gases do, of course, have important natural sources. However, in pre – industrial

times the sources were balanced by natural removal or “sink” processes: by fluxes into the

oceans and terrestrial biosphere for CO2, and, for CH4 and N2O, mainly by chemical reactions in

the atmosphere.

Human activities have disturbed these balances. For the halocarbons, the most climatically

important of which are the chloro-fluorocarbons CFC11 and CFC12, the sources are almost all

anthropogenic. Today, these sources are largely controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its

Amendments and Adjustments. However, new “substitute” chemicals, which are not controlled

because they do not cause depletion of stratospheric ozone, are being introduced. These new

gases, like all halocarbons, are strong greenhouse gases (although their net effects on future

climate are expected to be small relative to CO2). In addition to the gases mentioned above, there

have been other important atmospheric compositions changes due to anthropogenic activities.

Emissions of gases like carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and volatile organic

compounds (VOCs) such as butane and propane, which have resulted from industrial activity and

land-use changes (biomass burning), have led to large changes in tropospheric ozone.

Tropospheric ozone is a powerful greenhouse gas. Finally, emissions of SO2 from fossil-fuel

burning (particularly coal), and of other substances released by biomass burning activities, have

increased the aerosol loading of the atmosphere. This increase is important because the presence

of aerosols has a cooling effect that may partly offset the warming effect of greenhouse gases, as

discussed below.
 Science behind global warming 5

B. Radiative Forcing

The above changes in atmospheric composition have disturbed the overall energy budget of the

Planet, upsetting the balance between incoming (solar) short-wave radiation and outgoing long-

wave radiation — the planet’s “radiative balance.” Such a change is referred to as “radiative

forcing.” The climate system responds to positive radiative forcing by trying to restore the

radiative balance, which it does by warming the lower atmosphere. The larger the radiative

forcing, the larger the eventual surface temperature change. For each greenhouse gas, and for

sulfate and other aerosols, it is possible to calculate the corresponding global-mean radiative

forcing. By adding the separate forcings together, we can determine the overall (past or future)

external forcing on the climate system. Information on the relationships between forcing and

concentration changes (or, for SO2, emissions changes) has been given by the IPCC

(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, and Switzerland). Figure 1 summarizes

the forcing over the period from 1765 to 1990. The numbers in Figure 1 are current best-estimate

values. For the greenhouse gases individual components may be uncertain by up to ±10 percent

(Myhre et al., 1998). For total greenhouse-gas forcing, the uncertainty is probably similar. For

sulfate aerosol forcing (items 6 and 7) the uncertainty is considerably larger than for greenhouse

gases, particularly for the indirect aerosol forcing effect (i.e., the effect these aerosols have on

the reflectivity of clouds). The author’s judgment is that the 90 percent confidence interval for

total sulfate aerosol forcing from 1765 to 1990is about -1.1±0.5 W/m2. (See Reference,3).
 Science behind global warming 6

Figure 1. Breakdown of global–mean anthropogenic radiative forcing from 1765-1990 in watts

per square meter (W/m2).

C. Changes in Global-Mean Temperature

The simplest and most revealing index of global warming is the global-mean temperature near

the Earth’s surface. Analysis of this record provides us with valuable insights into the causes of

past climate change. The standard record used by the IPCC combines land data developed in the

Climatic Research Unit and marine (sea surface) temperature data compiled by the U.K. Hadley

Centre. Spurious changes may also arise from, for example, urban heat-island effects and

coverage changes. Errors arising from these factors have been painstakingly minimized, but

small residual uncertainties remain. The latest record is shown in Figure 2. The most striking

feature of this record is the overall warming trend, with the most recent years being the warmest.

The record, however, shows a number of other important features. First, there are large variations

from year to year. Some of these variations are associated with El Niño, a small number reflect

short - term cooling due to volcanic eruptions, and the remainder are probably manifestations of

the climate system’s own internally generated variability.

 Science behind global warming 7

Figure 2. Global mean (land plus marine) temperature changes related to the 1880-1899 mean

as a reference period. (The last value shown is 1998. The curve line gives the annual values,

while the dotted line gives a smoothed representation to show trends more clearly)

The record also shows large changes on the 10 to 30 year timescale. These probably reflect

anthropogenic and solar forcing effects combined with internal variability. It is true that this

warming was too rapid to be accounted for by anthropogenic forcing alone. However, when the

possible effects of internally generated variability and solar forcing are accounted for, there is no

serious discrepancy. Over the whole period of record, the warming amounts to about 0.6°C since

the late1800s (with a measurement uncertainty of about±0.1°C). Solar forcing and anthropogenic

forcing together are enough to explain the overall warming trend (See Reference, 4), although

there could be additional influences from factors internal to the climate system.

Future Climate

Even though the results presented in the previous section do not include the effects of sulfate

aerosols, they can still provide useful information about future climate change possibilities over

the United States and can be illustrated with a specific example. Suppose we are interested in the

implications of the SRES A1 scenario and that we wish to derive patterns of climate change for a
 Science behind global warming 8

period centered on 2030. Suppose further that the climate sensitivity is assumed to be DT2x =

2.5°C (the current IPCC best-estimate value). To obtain patterns of climate change for 2030, one

simply reads the global-mean warming directly from Figure 3(namely, 0.7°C). To obtain an

absolute climate scenario, one would add these changes to the current (1990) climate. Sulfate

aerosol effects will undoubtedly modify these results. At the global-mean level, the forcing

contribution from sulfate aerosols is small relative to the total forcing. However, because of the

large spatial variability in the emissions of SO2 and the forcing from sulfate aerosols, there may

still be important effects at the regional level.

Figure 3. Temperature estimates for maximum global mean temperature.

These effects will vary with emissions scenario and time. At present, it is not possible to give

any reliable indication of what they may be, partly because appropriate O/AGCM model

experiments have yet to be performed, but also because of the very large uncertainties

surrounding the quantification of the relationships between SO2 emissions and the resulting

forcing effects.

Sea level rise

 Science behind global warming 9

There is little doubt that the Earth is heating up. In the last century the average temperature has

climbed about 0.6 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) around the world. From the

melting of the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, to the loss of coral reefs as

oceans become warmer, the effects of global warming are often clear.

However, the biggest danger, many experts warn, is that global warming will cause sea levels to

rise dramatically. Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20

centimeters). But that's nothing compared to what would happen if, for example, Greenland's

massive ice sheet were to melt, the consequences would be catastrophic. "Even with a small sea

level rise, we're going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands

of years. Another example, that a 1-meter (3-foot) rise would swamp cities all along the U.S.

eastern seaboard. A 6-meter (20-foot) sea level rise would submerge a large part of Florida. (see

References )

Remedy of Global Warming

Global warming consequences is thus is too serious to be ignored. Remedial action is

complicated by the fact that some individual scientists disagree with the consensus. According to

some, the cyclical climate patterns are nothing new. The earth has gone through such cycles and

survived several ice ages. (Earth might have survived, but not earth dwellers such as dinosaurs).

Despite the controversy, governments are taking steps to protect the environment. An attempt is

being made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to penalize the emitters. In several

countries, the law requires that each felled tree must be replaced by planting two new saplings.

At an individual level, we too can contribute. For example, we can:

*Burn less fossil fuel by going in for fuel-efficient small cars, or even better, using public

transport
 Science behind global warming 10

* Reduce energy consumption by switching off appliances when not needed

* Use energy-efficient light bulbs and heating devices

* Minimize the use of timber-based products such as paper, and fossil-based products such as

plastic

* Recycle paper and plastic products

Conclusions

Since the late 1800s, both the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O,

etc.) and the atmospheric loading of sulfate aerosols have increased markedly, due almost

entirely to human activities. At the same time, the average surface temperature of the Earth has

warmed by about 0.6°C. There is strong evidence that the two are related: indeed, when the

radiative forcing effects of greenhouse gas and aerosol increases are considered together with

those due to estimated changes in solar output, agreement between model predictions of global-

mean temperature and observed changes is excellent. Furthermore, the observed patterns of

temperature change, both at the surface and in the zonal-mean/vertical plane, also agree well

with model predictions of anthropogenic forcing effects. It is highly unlikely that such

agreements could have occurred by chance or be due to natural climatic variability.

If central estimates of model parameters are used, global-mean warming from 1990 to 2100

ranges from 1.9°C to 2.9°C. Sea-level rise estimates over the same period range from 46 to 58

cm. The ranges here arise solely from differences in the emissions scenarios. For temperature,

these values represent warming rates between three and five times the rate of warming that has

occurred over the past century. When the full range of emissions, climate sensitivity and ice-melt

mode parameters is considered, the global-mean temperature change from 1990 to 2100 ranges

between 1.3°C and 4.0°C while the sea-level rise ranges between 17 cm and 99 cm. Regional
 Science behind global warming 11

changes may differ markedly from global-mean changes. For the United States, the rate of future

warming is expected to be noticeably faster than the global-mean rate. The only result that is

common to all climate models is an increase in winter precipitation in northern latitudes, from

the northern Great Plains to the northeastern states. Changes in weather and climate extremes

over the United States are certain to occur as the global climate changes. For hurricanes and

tropical storms, model-based evidence suggests that there could be small increases in their

intensity: i.e., lower central pressures and higher wind speeds. Further, such storms will probably

be accompanied by larger rainfall amounts. Empirical evidence suggests that a small increase in

frequency of hurricanes is possible in the North Atlantic region. The frequency of extremely hot

days is almost certain to increase, and the frequency of frosts should decrease.

The general consensus is that human activities such as fossil-fuel burning, tree-felling and other

practices lead to global warming. Global warming has several disruptive effects as outlined

above. In addition to governments, we as individuals can do much to reduce global warming.

(See Reference, 2) (Global warming: causes, effects and prevention,

http://www.associatedcontent.com)
 Science behind global warming 12

References

1. Global warming, http://www.associatedcontent.com)

2. (Global warming: causes, effects and prevention, http://www.associatedcontent.com)

3. Alcamo, J., Bouwman, A., Edmonds, J., Grübler, A., Morita, T. and Sugandhy, A., 1995.

An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. In Climate Change 1994: Radiative

Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios

(eds. J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites,

N. Harris and K. Maskell), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 247-304.

4. Christy, J.R., 1998. Measuring global temperature. In Do We Understand Global Climate

Change? Norwegian Academy of Technical Sciences (NTVA), Trondheim, Norw a y, pp.

45-63.

5. Fowler, A.M. and Hennessy, K.J., 1995. Potential impacts of global warming on the

frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation. Natural Hazards 11: 282-303.

6. Frei,C.,Schär, C., Lüthi, D. and Davies, H.W., 1998. Heavy precipitation processes in a

warmer climate. Geophysical Research Letters 25: 1,431-1,434.

7. Harvey, L.D.D., Gregory, J., Hoffert, M., Jain, A., Lal, M., Leemans, R., Raper, S.B.C.,

Wigley, T.M.L. and de Wolde, J., 1997. An introduction to simple climate models used in

the IPCC Second Assessment Report: IPCC Technical Paper 2 (eds. J.T. Houghton, L.G.

Meira Filho, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

Geneva, Switzerland.
 Science behind global warming 13

8. Santer, B.D., Hnilo, J.J., Wi g l e y, T.M.L., Boyle, J.S., Doutriaux, C., Fiorino, M.,

Parker, D.E. and Ta y l o r, K.E., 1999. Uncertainties in observationally-based estimates

of temperature change in the free atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 104:

6,305-6,333.

9. Sea level rise,

(http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/04/0420_040420_earthday_2.html)