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L a n e A s s e t M a n age m e n t
Stock Market Commentary
Market Recap month (falling then recovering). Investment Outlook
March was a rocky month for the stock mar- It was another strong month for silver, The ultimate driver of stock market perform-
ket. Equity markets took a dive along with the though gold had little change. Oil fell ance is corporate earnings. It is also responsive
disaster in Japan, not to mention continuing sharply then recovered. to the flood of money (or lack thereof) that
turmoil in the Middle East, debt problems in Economic Outlook comes government stimulus. At any point in
Europe and inflation in emerging economies. time, however, the market is making a predic-
I believe the economic outlook remains se-
By the middle of the month, investors shook tion about future earnings and the prospects
verely challenged. While some improvement
It is difficult in a period off all the bad news, as certain economic indi- for changes in government stimulus. Some-
is occurring in employment, wage growth and
of sustained market im- cators showed improvement and investors times those predictions are wrong. Accord-
the Conference Board’s Leading Economic In-
provement to increase seemed to feel the correction was overblown. ingly, despite the trend in the S&P (which is
dicators, other indicators (e.g., construction,
caution in investing. But,
The S&P 500 ended the month basically un- showing some current weakness), in the face of
I ask myself, would I housing, capital goods orders and consumer
changed. Emerging markets reversed a economic and geopolitical headwinds and in an-
rather be early or late sentiment) remain weak.
prior slide and ended up almost 6%, perhaps ticipation of a slow down in government stimu-
leaving a falling market. As a reminder from last month’s commentary,
due to the expectation of commodity lus, I continue to recommend heightened cau-
While the technician in the wind down of QE2 in June worries many
me says to remain in- growth as a result of the earthquake and tion relative to broad market sectors.
analysts who see a strong correlation between
vested, the fundamental tsunami in Japan. Accordingly, I favor high quality, dividend-
the Fed’s balance sheet (or credit growth gen-
analyst sees greater risk The global bond index was unchanged again paying equities and sectors that will benefit
erally) and stock market performance.
for downside surprises
reflecting the fact that 10-year Treasury from global tension and weakening currencies,
than upside.
bond rates were also unchanged for the such as energy and other commodities, pre-
This would be a good cious metals, and securities that benefit from
time to avoid taking on
rising interest rates. As a result of the Japanese
additional investment
earthquake and the continuing growth in
risk without a watchful
emerging markets, especially China and India,
eye on emerging trend
and market momentum.
global building materials also have a positive
outlook.
As always, I welcome
your comments and sug- For taxable portfolios, I would also give consid-
gestions. eration to a well-diversified municipal bond
— Ed Lane portfolio. I believe the municipal bond scare
was and is overblown resulting in high current
yields and capital gains down the road. With
current tax free yields at 4% or more, and with
bond prices depressed, an allocation to munici-
pal bonds may prove timely.
Page 2
L a n e A s s e t M a n age m e n t
S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 index experienced a minor correction in November at its previous line of resistance, but
bounced back strongly since partly as a result of a reallocation of funds from emerging to the developed mar-
kets. On a technical basis, the 75– and 150-day moving averages remain positive not quite so much as last
month. On the other hand, the MACD (another moving average-based momentum indicator) weakened in
March, but is now showing signs of recovery. The index is still hovering around its new technical line of sup-
port/resistance of about 1300 which gives some reason for caution. At this point, giving due regard to the economic headwinds in the U.S.
and other developed economies, but also keeping in mind the stronger, but overheating, economies in the emerging markets, it is difficult to
be convinced about the sustainability of the current uptrend in the S&P 500. The caution light is out and any additional exposure to U.S. equi-
ties should be entered into slowly and carefully with the understanding that a pullback of 10-20% or so would be consistent with the pattern
established over the last 18 months.
The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged index which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
L a n e A s s e t M a n age m e n t Page 3
Morgan Stanley Emerging Market Index
The MSCI Emerging Market Index had a setback in November and again in January as a result of concerns of
overheating economies and government policy actions to control rising inflation. The 75– and 150-day mov-
ing averages remain flat (without trend). The MACD, a shorter term indicator, is showing some sign potential
improvement, but it is too early to hang one’s hat on this. A positive sign is the retention of the breakout
above the last support line at 1050 while, on the other hand, 1200 is proving to be a difficult line to break
through. Given the generally positive fundamental long term outlook, this may be an opportunity to add to a position for
more aggressive investors. Others may want to wait a bit longer for a confirmed move upwards. I think performance over the next couple of
weeks will be telling for a longer term commitment and we may now be looking at a ―basing period‖ for the next move up. At this time, I sug-
gest investors be cautious of the ―risk-on‖ trade in emerging markets.
The MSCI Emerging Markets index is an unmanaged index which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
L a n e A s s e t M a n age m e n t Page 4
Barclays Capital Global Bond Index
The Barclays Capital Global Bond Index represents the total return (capital gains and interest income) of a
composite of domestic and international government and corporate bonds and similar instruments. As such,
it blends bond yields available globally along with the impact of currency fluctuations. As shown in the chart
below, this index has a steady upward momentum with very low volatility. It should be noted that the per-
formance of the securities in this index has been a beneficiary of declining interest rates and decline in the value of the dollar,
producing capital gains along with interest income. With the expectation that interest rates will be rising in the future, that component of the
total returns in this index will be harder to achieve in the future. On the other hand, there are other components of total return including
higher interest rates abroad and currency movement that can prove beneficial. For the portion of a portfolio where capital preservation has a
high degree of importance and also to provide diversification, an allocation to a global bond portfolio may be appropriate. While a stable or
declining interest rate environment would be positive for this index, the current upward pressure on rates in both developed and emerging
markets does not bode well for this index at the current time. On the other hand, the MACD appears poised for an upward movement in total
return and the next few weeks or months will be quite interesting.
The Barclays Capital Bond—Global Index is an unmanaged index which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
L a n e A s s e t M a n age m e n t Page 5
Gold and Silver
The chart below shows the 5-year monthly performance of gold and silver indexes, along with a comparison of
the performance of a U.S. dollar index. The chart shows an inverse correlation in the price of the metals
against the value of the dollar except for the period November 2009 through May 2010 when the dollar ad-
vanced as did the price of the precious metals. The inverse correlation is understandable as the metals can be
seen as an alternative to fiat currency. But other factors are clearly at play as the metal prices have advanced far more than the value of the
dollar has declined. The primary answer, I believe, has to do with supply and demand imbalances caused by market and geopolitical uncertainty.
If that’s the case, then a good argument can be made for continuation of strong performance in these (and other) precious metals as long as
governments (and others) around the world stockpile these metals as a hedge against future inflation or as an alternative to holding dollars.
That said, as shown in 2008 and as suspected by some today, the value of the metals can be quite volatile and can contract rapidly. An interrup-
tion in the pace of price advances should not come as a surprise and might be taken as a buying opportunity. Therefore, caution is advised when
investing in precious metals.
This chart shows the performance of gold and silver indexes created by stockcharts.com that are intended to represent prices of the precious metals and is a very close approximation to the
value of exchange-traded funds that hold these metals. These unmanaged indexes cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
L a n e A s s e t M a n age m e n t Page 6
Year-to-Date Index Comparisons
The chart below shows the 12-month performance of selected indexes. Several observations can be made:
A high degree of correlation can be seen among the equity markets in the U.S., Europe and, to a lessor extent, in the
emerging markets.
While performance of the S&P 500 has lagged emerging markets for the last 12 months, the gap is now essentially closed.
European equities continue to lag other equity markets.
After suffering the largest decline in the first 3 months of the period shown, oil has rebounded the most strongly and now is just shy of gold
for the highest total return over the entire period as well as the strongest current momentum.
Global bonds have turned in a respectable performance with low volatility but incremental improvement evaporated over the last 7 months.
Gold performed extremely well for the first 9 months but began a sharp decline in late December. As suspected, this reversal was not long-
lived.