Transport & the Society

(Transportation, Land Use,

and the Environment)

Kuliah ke - 1
SJ5121 Rekayasa Lalu Lintas

Harun alRasyid Lubis

Program Magister Sistem & Teknik Jalan Raya ITB

 Background of development
z Automobile industry
z Urbanization

z Environmentalism (green transportation system

and sustainable development concept)

z Computer and ITS (Intelligent Transportation

System
 OUTLINE
z Consumer oriented economy via logistics and
automotive industry & toll road industry
z Land use & Urban form
z Roles of Public Transport
z Trasnport and the environment
z Admin , Planning and Funding

z Intro to Traffic Engineering

 Consumer oriented economy
z Driver 1: The consumer goods industry and
retail trade
z Driver 2: The automobile industry
 The Structure of the Consumer oriented Economy
The following chart depicts the main elements of a consumer oriented
economy with the dominant consumer good industry, the automobile industry, the network of
expressways and the traffic of cars and trucks on these. The so-called heavy industries,
namely coal and steel production, and transportation by railroad play only a minor role.

If we take the elements of the consumer good industry, automobile industry, truck transport,
and expressway network altogether, we derive the following theorem:
The consumer oriented economy relies heavily on high performance logistics and vice versa:
There is no high performance logistics without a consumer oriented economy.
(This theorem can be supported by the comparison of a consumer oriented economy with a
communist economy).

Cars

Express Trucks Consumer

ways Industry

Rail
road

Market Heavy
Economy Industry

5
 The Consumer Oriented Economy

The consumer oriented economy as driver towards high performance logistics:

Driver 1: The consumer goods industry and retail trade
Driver 2: The automobile industry

Both industries have faced a strong differentiation and diversification of their products
since 1950 (in the US 30 years former), called mass customization,
imposing a high load on logistic services in the procurement of material and
in the distribution of finished goods into the retail outlets.
Think of the 20 yards of shelve space filled with cereals in your shopping mall.

6
 Consumer Goods and Automobile Industry

The development in the distribution of consumer goods 1950 - 2000 inducing transportatio
¾Forming chains in the retail trade.
¾Establishing distribution systems with central warehouses and regional warehouses.
¾Synchronizing marketing actions with the punctual delivery of goods to the outlets.

The development of the automobile industry 1950 - 2000 inducing transportation:

¾Outsourcing of production steps to suppliers.
¾Outsourcing of warehouse operations to logistic companies.
¾Supply with material by the just-in-time-concept where speed and quality is necessary.
¾Spread of plant locations in Europe and all over the world - globalization.

7
Locations of General Motors in Europe

8
 Iconografic Cars of Mass Motorization in Europe
One important aspect of the consumer oriented economy is Mass motorization.
It started in Europe in the 1950s (30 years after it began in the US).

Fiat 500 in 1957

Volkswagen in 1948

Citroen 2CV in 1948

9
Toyota’s Global Strategy—Moving
Toward Global Motorization

With a long recession after the burst of the

bubble-economy and a yen appreciation
since 1993, the Japanese automobile industry
is at turning point for strategic business
planning.
 Toyota’s Global Strategy—Moving
Toward Global Motorization
z Core to the industry's strategy are:
― Restructuring domestic business contents and
systems.
― Strengthening overseas production.

― Establishing a global strategy through the

formation of worldwide networks for overseas
production and business bases.
 Toyota’s Global Strategy
z Toyota Motor Corporation is the third largest
automaker in the world.
z Global sales of its Toyota and Lexus brands,
combined with those of Daihatsu and Hino,
totaled 6.16 million units in the 2002 calendar
year.
 Toyota’s Global Strategy
z As of March 2003, Toyota:
― Operated its own 12 plants and 11 manufacturing
subsidiaries and affiliates in Japan,
― Collaborated with 45 manufacturing companies in
26 countries and regions, which produce Lexus-
and Toyota-brand vehicles and components,
employs 264,096 people worldwide
― Markets vehicles in more than 140 countries and
regions.
 Toyota’s Global Strategy
― Automotive business, including sales
finance, accounts for more than 90%
of the company's total sales.
― Toyota also has a growing portfolio of
diversified operations, with ventures in
telecommunications, prefabricated
housing and leisure boats.
Toyota’s Global Strategy
Global Vision for 2010
Technology Strategy
Global Scale Motorization
Profit Earnings
Toyota Production System (TPS)
z Main Features of TPS:
― Greater Product Variety
― Fast Response (Flexibility)

― Stable Production Schedules

― Supply Chain Integration

― Demand Management
z Comes… the Toll road industry
Mass Motorization

The mass motorization in the 1950s

let to traffic jam,
unsafe roads and high rates of accidents.

22
 Automobile Lobby

The automobile lobby put strong pressure on European governments to improve roads
and to build a network of expressways to attain quick and safe traffic.

23
 A network of expressways in Europe

Country Germany France Italy UK

Year
1960 2671 174 1065 202
1970 6061 1533 3913 1183
1980 9225 5264 5900 2683
1990 10809 6824 6193 3180

Table: Length (km) of expressways

In the table, data on the growth of expressway networks in France, Great Britain,

Italy and West Germany between 1960 to 1990 are shown. France and Great Britain

started from a low level in the 1960s to build expressways whereas Italy and

West Germany started already from a high level due to certain programs

in the fascist era before 1945.

24
z Land Use, Urban form and regional
development
 The City in Development –
Two Core Phenomena
zUrbanization -strongly correlated with income
growth – particularly as countries move from low to
middle income levels
– Linked to industrialization, economies of scale and
agglomeration, educational and social desires, etc.
zSuburbanization – spreading out of cities and
reduction in population densities
– Driven by rich and poor settlements alike, influenced by changes in land use
allowances (agricultural conversion), infrastructure investments, consumer
desires, economic realities (lower land and development costs), motorization

– The larger the city, the more sub-centers – “polycentric”

 World Urbanization Trends

Total population (billions)

World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Urban population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions

Source: UNPD, World Urbanization Prospects: the 1999 Revision

World “Suburbanization” Trends

Will the developing world follow? Seems to already be so.

Suburbanization is not just people
zSatellite cities, industrial parks, office parks
following people, infrastructure and land
prices
- Increased mobility/telecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken
and other factors (additional space, freeway
access) play a role

- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and

highly mobile – 3-5% annual mobility rates
(Ingram)
 The “Developing City”
z Often high concentration of national population,
economic activity, motor vehicles
z Inadequate transportation infrastructure – shortfalls,
poor maintenance, poor management
z Weak/unclear institutional, fiscal and regulatory
structures at metropolitan level
z In comparison to “Industrialized City”
– Greater income disparities, larger relative number of
poor, greater social needs and fewer public resources
– Higher population densities, lower road network
densities, fewer motor vehicles per capita
 The City, Accessibility, Mobility
z Accessibility: “The potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic
opportunities” – What we want

z Mobility: the ability to move between different

places (overcome distance); key for enhancing
(firms’ & individuals’) accessibility

z Higher accessibility is almost always better;

higher mobility depends on net contribution to
accessibility
The City, Accessibility, Mobility
 Land Use, Transport, Accessibility
z Distribution of jobs, residences, schools, etc. defines a city’s
potential accessibility
– Determines virtually all transportation activity
– In developing world, particularly crucial, due to lower general
levels of individual mobility
z “Stylized” developing country traits – Metro level
– Historic concentration of trip attractions in city
center
– High densities
– Socio-economic and functional segregation, forcing
long trips for poor, often isolated on the urban fringe
 Land Use, Transport, Accessibility
z Densities, local distribution of land uses, “design”
factors (street design, layout)
– Unclear impact on trip frequency, distance, mode
z Density shown to influence travel (Newman &
Kenworthy, Pickrell)
– But, difficult to isolate other influencing factors
z Household size, relative travel costs, socioeconomic factors

– Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory

– Few “generalizable” influences;
– Little, if any, work specific to developing country cities
Transport, Land Use, Accessibility
z Transport system performance effects an area’s
relative accessibility (attractiveness)
– Open up new areas for development
z i.e., urban fringe highway
– Facilitate densification
z i.e., a center city metro
z Also influences other attractiveness
characteristics
– Noise, pollution, safety risks
z Do “highways cause sprawl”?
– Ultimate effects depend on households/firms relative
sensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transport’s “Vicious or
virtuous” Cycle
Transportation – Providing Access
• Facilitate movement of goods
and services
• Improves accessibility to work,
education, etc.
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets /Ownership

z Motorization – Growth in Motor Vehicle

Fleets
z Motorization Rate –Motor Vehicles per
capita (typically expressed vehicles/1000
population)
― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels
z Both are strongly correlated to income
 Motorization Rate & Income
z Time-series and cross-section econometric models
(i.e., using income per capita, vehicles per capita,
and often other variables) across many countries or
one country in time (see, especially, Ingram & Liu)
– Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
– Income shown to account for typically 70-90% of private
vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
– Income elasticities (“stylized” facts):
z Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1
z National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities
z Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
 But, Income Does not explain
everything
z Prices, taxes, policies, public transport
provision, land uses, culture, etc.
– For example, same motorization rate seen in:
z Morocco, Chile , Mauritius, Hong Kong
z Argentina, Korea
z Poland, Israel
z Mexico, Singapore
 Perspectives on Motorization
z Anthropological – auto as status symbol
Political – freedom & privacy
z Economic – rational economic decision
Sociological (Vasconcellos, 1997)
– Middle class reproduction, effects on
consumption/lifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income & Accessibility -The
Demand for Trips
z ROLES of Public Transport Important
z Transport and the environment
Automobility Vs. PT Performance
Auto Bus vs. Auto –– Travel Speeds
 Growth of the “Informal” Sector
z Minibuses, shared sedans, vans, etc. illegal or licensed
but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City, Lima, Recife (Brazil), San Jose (Costa
Rica), etc.
z Combination of initiating factors:
― Liberalization of the public transport market, scarce alternative
employment opportunities, public sector employment restructuring
(Peru), institutional weakness
z Positive Impacts
― Employment, fill demand with “door to door” service
z Negative Impacts
― System-wide effects (congestion, pollution), political
clout, unsafe on-road competition
 “Informal” Sector Informal” Sector

z Rio
– Kombis: complementary service in
inaccessible areas
– 14-seater “luxury” vehicles: competing express
service
– Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare
– Early 1990s, 600 vehicles; today, 6,000 to 9,000
– Buses have responded to competition, diversifying
operations and adding amenities (i.e., A/C)
The Rise of the “Informal” Sector in
Mexico City
 Urban Rail Transit
z Metros, suburban rail, light rail
z Typically the exception in developing cities,
including Latin America
– High capital costs, lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns,
long construction times
– Still, often highly prized as visible,
“modern” solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America
z Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires, Santiago, São
Paulo, Rio, and several other Brazilian cities
z Buenos Aires
– 7 lines, 840 kms, 8% of trips
z Rio
– 264 kms, 2% of trips
z São Paulo
– 6 lines, 270 kms, 2% of trips
z Santiago
– 1 line, 85 kms, <<0.3% of trips
Metros in Latin America
 Metros
z High Capacity – 60Passengers/Hr/Direction
z High Cost -$40-$150 mn./Km
z Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered
z Operating Revenues/Operating costs – “Farebox
Ratio” (in 1990)
― Mexico City, Rio, São Paulo < 1
― Santiago > 1.5
― Policy outcome, planning outcome, operations
outcome?
 Towards sustainable development with UN

Sustainable development and transport :

•Transport is essential for today's society
•Today’s transport sector is very harmful to health, safety and
environment
• I.e. transport causes 20% of the global CO2-emissions*, and it is at the
same time one of the sectors where CO2- emissions increase the most.
Mobility and economical growth are walking hand in hand.
We cannot stop the process, but we need to plan and develop a more
sustainable mobility
Sustainable transport systems are needed and they have to be
based on railways as the backbone

UN should place TRANSPORT higher at its agenda !

*International Energy Agency