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Anul PIB (milioane lei, preturi curente) Cursul de schimb leu/euro

1999 55126.4 1.6296


2000 80873.1 1.9956
2001 117391.4 2.6027
2002 152271.5 3.1255
2003 191917.6 3.7556
2004 244688.3 4.0532
2005 286861.9 3.6234
2006 342762.6 3.5245
2007 425691.1 3.3373
2008 539834.6 3.6827
2009 530894.4 4.2373
2010 528514.5 4.2099
2011 558889.9 4.2379
2012 591799.1 4.4560
2013 634967.8 4.4190
2014 669703.9 4.4446
2015 711929.9 4.4450
2016 763652.5 4.4908
2017 857895.7 4.5681
2018 951728.5 4.6535
2019 1058190.3 4.452

Anul PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile) Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
1999 33828.2 10855.5
2000 40525.7 10771.6
2001 45103.7 10657.3
2002 48719.1 9573.9
2003 51101.7 9569.4
2004 60369.2 9187.5
2005 79169.3 9159.1
2006 97251.4 6336.0
2007 127555.5 9488.4
2008 146586.6 9359.1
2009 125290.7 9017.1
2010 125540.9 8725.1
2011 131879.0 8522.7
2012 132809.5 8645.3
2013 143690.4 8569.4
2014 150678.1 8634.6
2015 160164.2 8525.7
2016 170048.2 8429.6
2017 187801.4 8631.0
2018 204518.9 8638.8
2019 237688.7 8493

PIB este variabila dependenta (Y)


Populatia ocupata este variabila independenta (X)

Seriile de date prezentate sunt serii cronologice (serii de timp).


Reprezentarea grafica a unei serii cronologice poarta numele de CRONOGRAMA.

Evolutia PIB (milioane euro) total in perioada 1999-2019


250000.0

200000.0

150000.0

100000.0

50000.0

0.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)


1999 10855.5
2000 10771.6
2001 10657.3
2002 9573.9
2003 9569.4
2004 9187.5
2005 9159.1
2006 6336.0
2007 9488.4
2008 9359.1
2009 9017.1
2010 8725.1
2011 8522.7
2012 8645.3
2013 8569.4
2014 8634.6
2015 8525.7
2016 8429.6
2017 8631.0
2018 8638.8
2019 8493
Totalul 189790.2

O serie cronologica ( o serie de timp) se poate caracteriza cu ajutorul a 3 tipuri de indicatori:


Indicatori absoluti
Indicatori relativi
Indicatori medii

Indicatorii medii
a. Nivelul mediu al seriei cronologice Indice mediu de din
Se foloseste media aritmetica simpla. Ritmul mediu de mo
b. Modificarea medie absoluta
c. Indicele mediu de dinamica
d. Ritmul mediu de modificare (modificare relativa/modificare procentuala).

a. Numarul mediu al populatiei ocupate in perioada 1999-2019


b. Modificarea medie absoluta
Pop ocupata (mii pers) PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
-118 10193

In perioada 1999/2019, numarul mediu al populatiei ocupate a scazut de la an la an cu 118 mii persoane (cu 1.22%)
In perioada 1999/2019, valoarea medie a PIB in preturi comparabile a crescut cu 10193 milioane euro de la an la an

c. Indicele mediu de dinamica(%)

Pop ocupata (mii pers) (%) PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
98.7804 1.10

0.782368384689789 7.02635364379742

Realizarea modelului econometric unifactorial


X
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
10855.5
10771.6
10657.3
9573.9
9569.4
9187.5
9159.1
6336.0
9488.4
9359.1
9017.1
8725.1
8522.7
8645.3
8569.4
8634.6
8525.7
8429.6
8631.0
8638.8
8493

Reprezentarea grafica a dependentei dintre 2 variabile se face cu ajutorul DIAGRAMEI DE IMPRASTIERE(DIAGRAME


SCATTER DIAGRAM.

Pentru realizarea corelogramei in Excel


selectez datele cu tot cu capul de tabel, intru in INSERT-SCATTER (PRIMA OPTIUNE).
Se da click dreapta pe orice punct al graficului, Add Trendline, Line si se bifeaza ultimele 2 optiuni de jos.
Display Equation on Chart
Display R-squared value on chart
X Y
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane) PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
10855.5 33828.2
10771.6 40525.7
10657.3 45103.7
9573.9 48719.1
9569.4 51101.7
9187.5 60369.2
9159.1 79169.3
6336.0 97251.4
9488.4 127555.5
9359.1 146586.6
9017.1 125290.7
8725.1 125540.9
8522.7 131879.0
8645.3 132809.5
8569.4 143690.4
8634.6 150678.1
8525.7 160164.2
8429.6 170048.2
8631.0 187801.4
8638.8 204518.9
8493 237688.7

9038 119062.875773128
PIB (milioane euro, preturi Populatia
comparabile)
totala ocupata (mii persoane)
33828.2 10855.5
40525.7 10771.6

45103.7 10657.3

48719.1 9573.9

51101.7 9569.4

60369.2 9187.5
79169.3 9159.1
97251.4 6336.0
127555.5 9488.4
146586.6 9359.1
125290.7 9017.1
125540.9 8725.1
131879.0 8522.7
132809.5 8645.3
143690.4 8569.4
150678.1 8634.6
160164.2 8525.7
170048.2 8429.6
187801.4 8631.0
204518.9 8638.8
237688.7 8493

PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)


1999 33828.2
2000 40525.7
2001 45103.7
2002 48719.1
2003 51101.7
2004 60369.2
2005 79169.3
2006 97251.4
2007 127555.5
2008 146586.6
2009 125290.7
2010 125540.9
2011 131879.0
2012 132809.5
2013 143690.4
2014 150678.1
2015 160164.2
2016 170048.2
2017 187801.4
2018 204518.9
2019 237688.7

9-2019

014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Evolutia populatiei ocupate in perioada 1999-201


in Romania
12000.0

10000.0

8000.0

6000.0

4000.0

2000.0

0.0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
4000.0

2000.0

0.0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Pop ocupata (mii pers) PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)


Medie
Modificare medie absoluta
Indice mediu de dinamica(%)
Ritmul mediu de modificare(%)

9038 mii persoane/an

cu 118 mii persoane (cu 1.22%).


93 milioane euro de la an la an (adica cu 10%).

Y
PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
33828.2
40525.7
45103.7
48719.1
51101.7
60369.2
79169.3
97251.4
127555.5
146586.6
125290.7
125540.9
131879.0
132809.5
143690.4
150678.1
160164.2
170048.2
187801.4
204518.9
237688.7

Dependenta dintre
EI DE IMPRASTIERE(DIAGRAMEI populatia
NORULUI ocupata si PIB (preturi comparabile)
DE PUNCTE/CORELOGRAMA).
250000.0

200000.0 f(x) = − 33.3649362584117 x + 420602.713433782


R² = 0.319515137335994

150000.0

100000.0

50000.0

0.0
6000.0 7000.0 8000.0 9000.0 10000.0 11000.0 12000.0

ele 2 optiuni de jos.

(xi-xmediu) (yi-ymediu)
1817.9 10855.5-9038 -85234.7
1734.0 10771.6-9038 -78537.2
1619.7 10657.3-9038 -73959.2
536.3 9573.9-9038 -70343.8
531.8 9569.4-9038 -67961.2
149.9 9187.5-9038 -58693.7
121.5 9159.1-9038 -39893.6
-2701.6 6336.0-9038 -21811.5
450.8 9488.4-9038 8492.7
321.5 9359.1-9038 27523.8
-20.5 9017.1-9038 6227.9
-312.6 8725.1-9038 6478.0
-514.9 8522.7-9038 12816.1
-392.3 8645.3-9038 13746.6
-468.2 8569.4-9038 24627.5
-403.0 8634.6-9038 31615.2
-511.9 8525.7-9038 41101.3
-608.0 8429.6-9038 50985.3
-406.6 8631.0-9038 68738.6
-398.8 8638.8-9038 85456.0
-544.6 8493-9038 118625.9

media

covarianta
abaterea standard pt X
abaterea standard pt Y
dispersia lui X
dispersia lui Y
coeficientul de corelatie liniara

Coeficientii ecuatiei de regresie


(xi-xmediu)*(yi-ymediu) (xi-xmediu) la patrat (yi-ymediu)la patrat
33828.2-119062.7 -154945882.894603 3304663.45604444 7264953586.14369
40525.7-119062.2 -136181357.100727 3006663.52071111 6168086948.88795
45103.7-119062.2 -119789704.748824 2623341.70671111 5469959680.47205
48719.1-119062.8 -37723499.1859473 287589.088044444 4948248907.8732
51101.7-119062.2 -36139933.1224505 282782.878044444 4618719404.53878
60369.2-119062.7 -8796622.06366708 22462.0160444443 3444951672.09773
79169.3-119062.6 -4847606.12010756 14765.490177778 1591500506.43565
97251.4-119062.5 58926433.3903605 7298786.64604444 475739971.655482
127555.5-119062.7 3828520.85039257 203223.645344444 72125327.1342883
146586.6-119062.8 8848980.27492704 103364.393344445 757557311.298787
125290.7-119062.9 -127712.481175216 420.523377777834 38786138.2026349
125540.9-119062.0 -2024869.20262365 97704.1725444451 41964382.6968458
131879.0-119062.1 -6599478.42496498 265159.770677778 164252350.084071
132809.5-119062.6 -5393164.44342143 153920.213377779 188969480.196838
143690.4-119062.5 -11531255.3546908 219236.211377778 606514084.600542
150678.1-119062.2 -12741779.9540225 162430.494044446 999522641.064583
160164.2-119062.3 -21040867.477291 262068.912044448 1689319426.49435
170048.2-119062.3 -31000442.620093 369696.427377778 2599504272.89265
187801.4-119062.6 -27950928.0744938 165345.246044445 4724988464.53392
204518.9-119062.0 -34082124.0494958 159062.710044445 7302724688.90194
237688.7-119062.9 -64606812.6256053 296618.206044445 14072097236.724
-643920105.428524 19299305.7274667 67240486482.93

-30662862.1632631
958.652470111455 radical din (919014.5585)
56585.5805639438 radical din (3201927928)
919014.558450793
3201927927.75857
-0.56525670039018 (-30662862.16)/(958.65*56585.58)
Legatura dintre PIB si populatia ocupata in perioada 1999-2019 este liniara, inversa si de intensitate medie.
X
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
10855.5
10771.6
10657.3
9573.9
9569.4
9187.5
9159.1
6336.0
9488.4
9359.1
9017.1
8725.1
8522.7
8645.3
8569.4
8634.6
8525.7
8429.6
8631.0
8638.8
8493
189790.2

Se selecteaza datele cu tot cu capul de tabel


Data, Data Analysis, Regression

405285420.276802
170464147483575.00
420602.713433784
a este coeficientul termenului liber, nu are semnificatie din punct de vedere economic.
Reprezinta valoarea lui y cand x este 0.
Valoarea PIB cand populatia ocupata este 0.
b este coeficientul de regresie (panta dreptei de regresie)
daca b este mai mare decat 0, legatura este directa (creste X, creste si y)
daca b este egal cu 0, nu exista legatura intre cele 2 variabile.
daca b este mai mic decat 0, este legatura inversa (o variabila creste si una scade).
-13522322213.9991
-33.3649362584117

Daca populatia ocupata creste cu o unitate(o mie de persoane), valoarea PIB va scadea cu 33, 36 milioane euro.
Y
PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile) X patrat
33828.2 117841880.25
40525.7 116027366.56
45103.7 113578043.29
48719.1 91659561.21
51101.7 91573416.36
60369.2 84410156.25
79169.3 83889845.5396
97251.4 40144896
127555.5 90030303.8649
146586.6 87593314.3569
125290.7 81308453.0944
125540.9 76126497.5025
131879.0 72636244.8361
132809.5 74741212.09
143690.4 73434616.36
150678.1 74556317.16
160164.2 72687560.49
170048.2 71058156.16
187801.4 74494161
204518.9 74628865.44
237688.7 72131049
2500320.4 1734551916.8

determinantul sistemului
deteminant caracteristic a SUMMARY OUTPUT
coeficientul a
punct de vedere economic. Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
X, creste si y) Standard Error
Observations
ila creste si una scade).
deteminant caracteristic b ANOVA
coeficientul b
Regression
ane), valoarea PIB va scadea cu 33, 36 milioane euro. Residual
Total

Intercept (a)
b Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
XY
10855.5*10855.5 367221793.814433
10771.6*10771.6 436526700.721588
10657.3*10657.3 480683662.050947
9573.9*9573.9 466431647.368421
9569.4*9569.4 489012749.344978
9187.5*9187.5 554641704.394059
9159.1*9159.1 725122344.418502
6336*6336 616184943.566463
9488.4*9488.4 1210301802.04746
9359.1*9359.1 1371923371.41174
9017.1*9017.1 1129761525.52994
8725.1*8725.1 1095350349.94299
8522.7*8522.7 1123963605.04755
8645.3*8645.3 1148177908.26526
8569.4*8569.4 1231340363.27676
8634.6*8634.6 1301045154.78108
8525.7*8525.7 1365511979.39932
8429.6*8429.6 1433438388.26044
8631*8631 1620914118.93347
8638.8*8638.8 1766797499.9033
8493*8493 2018690525.13477
21953042137.6

Regression Statistics
0.56525670039018
0.319515137335994
0.283700144564204
49073.5930756835
21

df SS
1 21484353273.1324
19 45756133209.7976
20 67240486482.93

Coefficients Standard Error


420602.713433782 101522.19958036
-33.3649362584117 11.1706132108857

Predicted PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile) Residuals


58409.6478805946 -24581.4691864365
61208.9660326754 -20683.2594782556
65022.5782470118 -19918.8782431697
101170.150189375 -52451.0652429664
101320.292402538 -50218.5776299316
114062.361559625 -53693.19645551
115008.591151914 -35839.3302367513
209202.477300486 -111951.065752749
104021.851291381 23533.6876173173
108335.937549594 38250.6972563907
119747.079399333 5543.64818662933
129491.976332328 -3951.10837821959
136243.70483358 -4364.73175729209
132152.829998936 656.662819735357
134685.22866095 9005.15377851646
132509.834816901 18168.268949467
136143.276375442 24020.930598686
139349.646749875 30698.562923234
132629.948587431 55171.4787018136
132369.702084616 72149.1546898551
137234.309791092 100454.436839636
Y patrat
10855.5*33828.2 1144345673.76 33828.2*33828.2
10771.6*40525.7 1642332891.73 40525.7*40525.7
10657.3*45103.7 2034343754.04 45103.7*45103.7
9573.9*48719.1 2373549238.02 48719.1*48719.1
9569.4*51101.7 2611385252.70 51101.7*51101.7
9187.5*60369.2 3644436095.37 60369.2*60369.2
9159.1*79169.3 6267771873.85 79169.3*79169.3
6336.0*97251.4 9457837048.03 97251.4*97251.4
9488.4*127555.5 16270415506.29 127555.5*127555.5
9359.1*146586.6 21487641503.74 146586.6*146586.6
9017.1*125290.7 15697766419.02 125290.7*125290.7
8725.1*125540.9 15760509526.67 125540.9*125540.9
8522.7*131879.0 17392063539.66 131879.0*131879.0
8645.3*132809.5 17638361382.75 132809.5*132809.5
8569.4*143690.4 20646926005.60 143690.4*143690.4
8634.6*150678.1 22703890954.63 150678.1*150678.1
8525.7*160164.2 25652573195.65 160164.2*160164.2
8429.6*170048.2 28916393613.03 170048.2*170048.2
8631.0*187801.4 35269376091.88 187801.4*187801.4
8638.8*204518.9 41827962776.34 204518.9*204518.9
8493*237688.7 56495940274.89 237688.7*237688.7
364935822617.6

MS F Significance F
21484353273.1324 8.92126767613547 0.007579129016731
2408217537.35777
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
4.1429629694031 0.000552779383012 208114.307655648 633091.1 208114.3
-2.98684912175615 0.007579129016731 -56.7452984112867 -9.984574 -56.7453
Populatia totala ocupata (mii
persoane) Residual Plot
200000
Residuals

100000
0
-100000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 0
00 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0.
60
-200000 70 80 1 90 1 100 10 20
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
Upper 95.0%
633091.1
-9.984574
X
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
10855.5
10771.6
10657.3
9573.9
9569.4
9187.5
9159.1
6336.0
9488.4
9359.1
9017.1
8725.1
8522.7
8645.3
8569.4
8634.6
8525.7
8429.6
8631.0
8638.8
8493
189790.2
Y
PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
33828.2
40525.7
45103.7
48719.1
51101.7
60369.2
79169.3
97251.4
127555.5
146586.6
125290.7
125540.9
131879.0
132809.5
143690.4
150678.1
160164.2
170048.2
187801.4
204518.9
237688.7
2500320.4

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept (a)
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane) (b)

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
tistics
0.56525670039018
0.319515137335994
0.283700144564204
49073.5930756835
21

df SS MS F Significance F
1 21484353273.13 21484353273.13 8.921268 0.007579
19 45756133209.80 2408217537.36
20 67240486482.93

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


420602.713433782 101522.1995804 4.142962969403 0.000553 208114.3
-33.3649362584117 11.17061321089 -2.986849121756 0.007579 -56.7453

Predicted PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile) Residuals


58409.6478805946 -24581.46918644
61208.9660326754 -20683.25947826
65022.5782470118 -19918.87824317
101170.150189375 -52451.06524297
101320.292402538 -50218.57762993
114062.361559625 -53693.19645551
115008.591151914 -35839.33023675
209202.477300486 -111951.0657527
104021.851291381 23533.68761732
108335.937549594 38250.69725639
119747.079399333 5543.648186629
129491.976332328 -3951.10837822
136243.70483358 -4364.731757292
132152.829998936 656.6628197354
134685.22866095 9005.153778516
132509.834816901 18168.26894947
136143.276375442 24020.93059869
139349.646749875 30698.56292323
132629.948587431 55171.47870181
132369.702084616 72149.15468986
137234.309791092 100454.4368396
Populatia totala ocupata (mii
persoane) Residual Plot
200000
Residuals

100000
0
-100000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 0
00 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0.
60
-200000 70 80 1 90 1 100 10 20
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
Significance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
633091.1 208114.3 633091.1
-9.984574 -56.7453 -9.984574