Monthly Commodity Markets Roundup

Apr 2011

Markets performance
Units Apr-2011 % chg % chg
(MoM) (Year to
date)
Index
Vegetable oils
SBO @ CBOT US c/ lb 58.13 -1.11% 0.68% > Market performance
CPO @ BMD MYR / T 3,270.00 -1.68% -13.67%
RBD Olein, FOB, Mly US$ /T 1,197.50 1.91% -4.39% > Analysis
SBO, FOB, Arge US$ /T 1,209.00 -2.97% -4.80% • Oil and oilseeds
Sunoil, Ex NWE € /T 1,400.00 2.19% -6.04% • Natural Rubber
Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch € /T 975.00 -4.88% -10.55%
CPO, cif, Rotterdam € /T 1,142.50 -1.51% -11.09%
CSBO degummed, Ex NWE € /T 862.00 -9.26% -16.55%
> Market visuals
Softs and Plantations • Commodity fundamentals gauge
Sugar 11 @ ICE 23.38 -13.76% -27.21%
• Price seasonality
USc /lb
Rubber @ TOCOM JPY /kg 389.10 -9.97% -6.13%
• Price charts - Agriculture
Cocoa @ ICE US$ /T 3,390.00 14.84% 11.70%
• Price charts - Energy
Coffee C @ ICE USc /lb 299.35 13.33% 24.47% • Indices
Tea, Best BP1, Kenya US$/Kg 3.40 0.00% -9.09% • Currency
Energy and Metals • Macroeconomic gauge
Crude oil @ NYMEX US$ /barrel 113.93 6.76% 24.68% • Traders positions vs. price
Gold spot US$ /troy oz 1,563.60 9.34% 10.16% • Spreads Corner
Silver spot US$ /oz 47.95 27.53% 55.38%
Copper @ LME US$ /T 9,320.00 -1.15% -2.92%
Aluminum @ LME US$ /T 2,767.50 4.51% 12.04%
Zinc @ LME US$ /T 2,247.00 -4.87% -8.44%
Indices
DJIA 12,810.50 3.98% 10.65%
FTSE 100 6,069.90 2.73% 2.88%
Strait times 3,179.86 2.38% -0.32%
S&P GSCI 758.80 4.57% 20.09%
Currencies
US Dollar Index 72.9330 -3.85% -7.71%
GBP / USD 1.6701 4.18% 7.06%
EUR / USD 1.4799 4.48% 10.63%
USD / JPY 81.2100 -2.33% 0.07%
USD / SGD 1.2239 -2.89% -4.57%
USD / MYR 2.9610 -2.12% -3.93%
USD / BRL 1.5765 -3.37% -4.99%
 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011

Analysis
Oil and oilseeds: Key market drivers in the short to medium term

Vegetable oils yr 2010/11 balance sheet remains tight

Global oilseed production for the year 2010/11 is estimated at 446.97 million tons. Global demand is
projected at 443.07 million tons during the same Table-1: Global Oilseed Production, in million tons
period. Increase in soybean production from 2009/10 2010/11 YoY Apr over Jan
Jan est. Apr est. chg (%) chg in %
South America and other origins helped to ease
Soybean 260.2 255.5 261.0 0.3% 2.1%
the initially anticipated supply squeeze (Table-1). Rapeseed 60.6 58.3 58.6 -3.4% 0.4%
Global oilseed ending stocks are currently Cottonseed 39.2 43.5 43.2 10.1% -0.8%
estimated at 70.57 million tons, which was on Peanut 33.0 34.1 34.7 5.2% 1.7%
Sunflowerseed 30.5 30.1 30.9 1.6% 2.8%
par with previous year stock level. Palm Kernel 12.2 12.8 12.7 4.2% -0.4%
Total 441.6 440.4 447.0 1.2% 1.5%
However, the supply tightness persists in vegetable oil markets. World production of eight major
vegetable oils in 2010/11 is currently expected at 145.95 million tons, up 4.2% year on year while the
consumption is expected at 146.43 million tons, up 6.08% year on year. Year ending stocks are
expected at 9.38 million tons, sharply lower by 25% from previous year. In relative terms, the stocks
account for 6.41% of the projected use vs. 9.07% in the year 2009/10. However, market has factored in
the current year stock tightness and is on look out for hints on next marketing year supply and demand
balance scenario.

Global vegetable oil production, consumption and stock to Global oilseeds and vegetable oil stocks to use ratio
trends
use ratio annual trend 20%
Oilseed
150 12% 18% Vegetable oil
140 10% 16% Meal
qty in million tons

stocks to use ratio

8% 14%
130 12%
6%
(% )

120 10%
4% 8%
110
2% 6%
100 0% 4%
2%
90 -2%
0%
2005/06 08/09 10-11/Oct 10-11/Jan 10-11/Apr 1980-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 2000-01 05-06 10-11
Source: USDA and Pacrim research Fig-2
Production Consumption
S/D (%), RHS stocks to consumption ratio, RHS
So urce: USDA and Pacrim research Fig-1

Notwithstanding the support from tight carry forward balance sheet, slowing demand as explained
below and fund activities shall dominate the scenario in the immediate front till a clear perspective on
MY2011-12 supply / demand balance emerges.

Slowing demand amid weak crush margins

Soybean crush margins in China that were Declining soybean crush margin in US and China
in uptrend till Jan2011 have turned lower as 80
crush margin in US$ per T

evident in Fig-3. This has impacted the 60

40
crushing pace and lowered the import 20
demand from China. The crush margin has 0
recovered marginally in the past two weeks -20
-40
following the recent correction in soybean -60
prices and relatively higher product prices, -80
however still farther away from being Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-
06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11
sufficiently attractive to restore the margin in China, active month futures
Source: Reuters and margin in China, spot month continuation Fig-3
demand. Pacrim research
crush margin in US

-1- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011

US soybean accumulated export shipments have reached 36.14 million tons and accounted for 84% of
the projected marketing year exports (43 million tons), less than the previous year same period level of
86.2%. Further, the outstanding sales (export sales not yet shipped) in current market year stood high
at 4.92 million tons vs. 1.87 million tons outstanding at this point of time in the previous year. High
outstanding sales highlight the underlying risk of shipment cancellations which is already evident from
the recent talks of cancellations from China.

At the domestic consumption front, US soybean crush has accumulated to 1014.54 million bushels till
Mar2011 in the current MY (Sep-Aug) and US monthly soybean crush, in million bushels
need to average 127.1 mb per month in the 180
remaining five month period to achieve the

monthly soybean crush, in mb

170
projected marketing year crush of 1650 mb. 160
The soybean crush that begun at above 150
average pace in the current marketing year
140
has lost momentum in the first quarter of CY 5 yr min 130
2011. US soybean oil stocks are hovering at 5 yr max
2009-10 120
3.4 billion lbs (1.54 million tons) and were
2010-11 110
marginally below the decade high of 3.55 5 year average
billion lbs. Although slowing down crush pace 100
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Fig-4
might help trim the stocks amid the Source: US census and Pacrim research
expectation of increased consumption
demand in the coming period, the impact of the same on prices could be subdued till the current
scenario of profit booking liquidation by funds turns around.

Soybean harvest in South America

Soybean harvest reached 95% in Brazil and about 64.1% of the crop was harvested in Argentina for the
week ending Apr 29, 2011. The soybean production in these two nations is currently anticipated at
around 72 million tons and 49.5 million tons respectively, with possibility of further upside revision
following the higher yields realized in the late harvests.

Palm oil production revival in Malaysia and Indonesia and export demand
The Malaysian palm oil production is recovering from year 2010 LaNina impact. The production in Mar
2011 increased by over 29% over previous month (+2% year on year) and production in the first
quarter of the current calendar year
Malaysian Palm oil production and exports
accumulated to 3.56 million tons compared to
(Jan-Mar total, in mln.Tons)
same period previous year production of 3.86 4.2
million tons.
3.9 3.9
3.8
Amid the signs of higher biological yields and
production recovery, the global palm oil 3.6 3.6
production is projected to reach 48.6 million
tons in CY 2011, a quantum jump of 3 million
tons year on year compared to just 0.5 million
tons increment witnessed in CY 2010. Production Exports
2009 2010 2011
Production in Indonesia is currently projected Fig-5
at 23.8 million tons for CY 2011, up 1.8 million Source: MPOB and Pacrim research
tons year on year while Malaysian palm oil production is forecasted at 17.8 million tons, up by 0.8
million tons over previous year.
-2- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011

Mean while; demand rationing has kicked in in the first quarter amid high prices as evident from the
lack luster performance of Malaysian palm oil exports. Palm oil exports in the first quarter fell by 14%
year on year to 3.567 million tons, as majority of the buyers from India and China remained sidelined
waiting for prices to correct from multi month highs. This has resulted in stocks rise to 1.61 million tons
by end Mar2011 from the Jan2011 low of 1.41 million tons.

The recovery in palm oil import demand from major destinations like India, China and EU shall be
important amid the increasing signs of strong seasonal rebound in palm oil production. The steep
discount of palm oil against soy oil (Ref Spreads in charts section) is in favor of palm oil from the
demand perspective. Though prices could find support near the lower end of the price range on
expectations of pent up demand, ability to push through the crucial resistances shall await concrete
evidence of increase in demand.

Lateral factors to monitor

i) Volatile crude oil prices amid the persistent geopolitical disturbances in MENA region
ii) Resurfacing EU sovereign debt crisis and macro economic stability
iii) US dollar index: The index slipped below 73 this month and seems to be stabilizing around that level
as evident by a series of doji candles in the past few trading sessions. Although a technical bounce
could be expected following the deeply oversold momentum indicators on daily and weekly
timeframes, a sustained move above 75.5 levels is needed to over come the near term bearish
pressures.
iv) Profit booking liquidation by funds. The latest CFTC data shows that net long position of speculative
funds was considerably reduced in various commodities (Refer Trader positions in Charts section) and
the same needs to be observed in the following period.

Natural Rubber

Natural Rubber production expected to grow by 5.8% in CY 2011

Natural rubber production for the calendar year 2011 is projected at 10.025 million tons, up 5.8% year
on year facilitated by an expansion in the area and improvement in the productivity. The top two
producers; Thailand and Indonesia are expected to contribute for majority of the production increment
followed by others (Table-2).

Production growth could have been higher but for the unseasonal rains in Mar/Apr period in Thailand
and Malaysia and its impact on production. The production growth in the ensuing months will be
crucial as NR enters into higher production months post May onwards as per the production
seasonality (Fig-6). The production in the second quarter is projected to increase to 2303 TMT, up
10.5% year on year compared to first quarter aggregate of 2265 TMT.

-3- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011
Table-2: Natural Rubber Production in CY 2011
NR production seasonality,
2009 2010 2011 % chg (% of month prodtn to annual total, average of yr 2008 and 2009)

m o n th p ro d tn a s % to a n n u a l to ta l
Tapped Area 6777 6991 7174
in '000 ha 18
2.6% 16
Yield, Kgs / 1314 1355 1397 14
ha 3.1% 12
Production, 8905 9473 10025 10
'000 MT 5.8% 8
Thailand 3164 3252 3375 3.8% 6
Indonesia 2440 2736 2972 8.6% 4
Malaysia 857 939 975 3.8% 2
India 820 851 902 6.0% 0
Vietnam 711 755 780 3.3%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
China 643 647 685 5.9%
Sri Lanka 136.9 153 159 3.9% China India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam
Philippines 97.7 98.8 113.5 14.9% Source: ANRPC and Pacrim research Fig-6
Cambodia 34.5 42.2 63.3 50.0%

Consumption growth in yr 2011

Natural Rubber demand increased at marginal pace in first quarter as evident from the slower export
growth from leading exporters. The cumulative exports from world major exporters, who account for
more than 92% of global exports, is estimated at 1854 TMT in the first quarter of current year,
marginally up by 0.5% over previous year.

The performance of automobile segment, which account for more than 50% of natural rubber
consumption, was mixed by the end of first quarter Table-3: Automobile sales for the period Jan-
(Table-3). The natural disaster that hit Japan in Mar in year 2011 vs. year 2009 in major
countries. Sales in mln. units.
Mar2011 has reduced its domestic automobile 2011 2010 %
production and sales by more than 50% and severely change
disrupted the global automobile supply chain. It is China
expected that it would be a while before the (Jan/Feb) 3.16 2.88 9.9%
US (Light
production is restored to the normal pace and hence vehicle sales) 3.06 2.55 20.2%
might impact the natural rubber consumption growth EU-27 (New
in the coming period. The other important factors to car
registrations) 3.58 3.67 -2.3%
influence the global automobile industry and hence
Japan 1.08 1.33 -18.5%
the rubber consumption are the credit tightening Source: JAMA, CAAM, Reuters, ACEA and Pacrim research
measures in China and the resurfacing sovereign debt
problems in EU.

Much would depend upon the growth of natural rubber consumption in the current year amid these
mixed signals. At 4.5% year on year growth (vs. 8.62% in the previous year) the global natural rubber
consumption would amount to 10.66 million tons in the current calendar year, marginally below the
projected global natural rubber production of 10.74 million tons. The surplus shall help increasing the
year ending stocks to 1.73 million tons from the previous year level of 1.64 million tons. In relative
terms, the stocks account for 1.94 months of use vs. 1.93 in the previous year. Although the expected
increase in supplies coupled with ongoing fund liquidation might pressurize the prices in the immediate
front, underlying tightness and increase in collective bargaining power of major producing countries
shall extend the underlying support to prices near lower price ranges.

-4- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011

Table-4: Natural Rubber balance sheet, qty in million tons.

1991 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011F
Production 5.16 6.04 6.76 8.90 9.62 10.23 10.74
Consumption 5.09 6.00 7.34 9.20 9.39 10.20 10.66
Production deficit/
surplus 0.07 0.04 -0.58 -0.30 0.23 0.03 0.08
Ending stocks 2.38 2.45 2.18 1.75 1.61 1.64 1.73
Stocks to use ratio 46.8% 40.8% 29.7% 19.0% 17.2% 16.1% 16.2%
Stocks in months to use 5.61 4.90 3.57 2.29 2.06 1.93 1.94
Source: Pacrim research

Currency impact
Besides the underlying supply and demand
forces, the currency factor should also be Fig-7: Appreciating currencies of major NR
monitored in the coming period. The currencies exporters vs. NR price.
RSS3 BKK US$kg (5.55816, 5.55816, 5.55816, 5.55816, -0.06328) 6
of major producers cum exporters’ viz. RSS3, FOB, BKK, US$/kg 5
4
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have 3
2
appreciated against the US dollar (Fig-7) and 1

the same shall be supportive to prices as USDMYR 4.5

4.0
exporters forced to increase their offers to 3.5
3.0
compensate for the loss in export earnings. Any 2.5

further appreciation (or weak US dollar) shall USDIDR 15000

10000
be supportive to the prices.
5000

USDTHB
50
40
30

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

A short term technical bounce is also on the cards aftermath to the recent price slide. However,
concrete evidence of demand recovery should accompany for the expected corrective bounce to
sustain.

-5- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011

Market Visuals
Commodities fundamental gauge
Global Palm oil Stocks to use vs. Price World Soybean oil Stocks to use vs. Price
all veg oil stocks to use Palmoil stocks to use
all veg oil stocks to use Soybn oil stocks to use
25% Annual avg price Price max 5000
18% Annual avg price Price max 80
Price min 4500
16% Price min 70
20% 4000
14%
60
stocks to use (%)

3500

stocks to use (%)

price in MYR / T
12%

price in USc/lb
15% 3000 50
10%
2500 40
10% 2000 8%
30
1500 6%
5% 1000 20
4%
500 2% 10
0% 0 0% 0
1980/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

World Soybean Stocks to use vs. Price World soybean meal stocks to use vs. price
stocks to use ratio Annual avg price
30% Annual avg price Price max Price min 1800 8% Price max Price min 500

1600 450
7%
25% Stocks to use 400

price in US$ per short ton

1400
price in USc/bushel

6%

stocks to use (%)

stocks to use (%)

350
20% 1200
5% 300
1000
15% 4% 250
800
3% 200
10% 600
150
2%
400 100
5%
200 1%
50
0% 0 0% 0
1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11 1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11

World Corn Stocks to use vs. Price World Wheat Stocks to use vs. Price
Stocks to use Annual avg price Stocks to use Annual avg price
50% Price max Price min 900 40% Price max Price min 1400
45% 800 35% 1200
40% 700
30%

price in USc / bushel

price in USc / bushel

35% 1000
stocks to use (%)
stocks to use (%)

600
30% 25%
500 800
25% 20%
400 600
20% 15%
300
15% 400
10%
10% 200
5% 200
5% 100
0% 0 0% 0
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

World Sugar Stocks to use vs. Price World Cotton Stocks to use vs. Price
Stocks to use Annual avg price Stocks to use Annual avg price
35% Price max Price min 70 70% Price max Price min 270

30% 60 60%
220
25% 50 50%
stocks to use (%)

stocks to use (%)

price in USc/lb

price in USc/lb

20% 40 40% 170

15% 30 30%
120

10% 20 20%
70
5% 10 10%

0% 0 0% 20
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

Average, Min and Max prices for yr 2011 are Jan 01, 2011 to till date statistics, Source: USDA and Pacrim research

-6- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011
Price seasonality
SBO at CBOT, price in USc /lb CPO at BMD, price in MYR/T

70

year 4000
60 year
2005 2005
3500
50 2006 2006
value

2007 3000

value
2007
40 2008 2008
2500
2009 2009
30 2010 2000
2010
2011 2011
20 1500

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
day of year day of year

SB at CBOT, price in USc / bushel Corn at CBOT, price in USc /bushel

1600
year 700 year
1400
2005 2005
600
1200 2006 2006
value

value
2007 500 2007
1000 2008 2008
400
2009 2009
800
2010 300 2010
600 2011 2011
200

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
day of year day of year
SBM at CBOT, price in USD / short ton Wheat at CBOT, price USc / bushel

450
year 1200 year
400
2005 2005
1000
350 2006 2006
value
value

300 2007 800 2007

2008 2008
250 600
2009 2009
200 2010 2010
400
150 2011 2011

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
day of year day of year
Sugar at ICE, price in USc / lb RSS3 (Natural Rubber) at TOCOM, price in JPY / kg

35
500
year year
30 2005 2005
400
25 2006 2006
value

value

2007 2007
20 300
2008 2008

15 2009 2009
200
2010 2010
10
2011 2011

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
day of year day of year
Source: Pacrim research

-7- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011
Price charts - Agriculture
CPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous
Palm oil continous 3 m onth cum ulative vol (3,290.00, 3,305.00, 3,271.00, 3,271.00, +1.00000) SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (58.0600, 58.6000, 57.1200, 57.2700, -0.86000) 75
4500 70

4000 65
60
3500 55

3000 50
45
2500 40

2000 35
30
1500 25

1000 20
15
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 500 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous
SOYBEANS COMPOSITE Continuous (1,389.50, 1,400.00, 1,352.00, 1,359.25, -33.5000) 1700 SUGAR 11 ICE Continuous (22.1900, 22.4300, 21.4500, 22.0500, -1.33000)
1600 35
1500
1400 30
1300
1200 25
1100
1000 20
900
800 15
700
600 10
500
400 5
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous
RUBBER CONTI 6 MONTH (388.400, 390.500, 374.600, 386.800, -2.30002) 550 CORN COMPOSITE Continuous (752.750, 757.750, 716.000, 719.000, -35.0000) 800
500 750
700
450
650
400 600
350 550
500
300
450
250
400
200 350

150 300
250
100
200
40 EMA 200 EMA 50 40 EMA 200 EMA 150
15 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous
WHEAT COMPOSITE Continuous (772.000, 793.000, 748.250, 760.750, -8.50000) 1400 COTTON NO 2 ICE Continuous (178.050, 180.230, 172.790, 179.210, +0.43001)
1300
1200 200
1100
1000
900 150
800
700
600 100

500
400
50
300

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 200 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA

Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-8- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011
Price Charts – Energy and Metals
Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly Natural Gas at NYMEX,
LIGHT CRUDE COMPOSITE Continuous (113.890, 114.830, 110.300, 111.050, -2.88000) NATURAL GAS COMPOSITE Continuous (4.68500, 4.72900, 4.63700, 4.67000, -0.02800)
150 16
140 15
130 14
120 13
110 12
100 11
90 10
9
80
8
70
7
60
6
50
5
40 4
30 3
20 2
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 10 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 1
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Gold, spot, weekly, US$ / oz Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.

gold (1,567.29, 1,575.79, 1,527.02, 1,535.88, -27.7200) s ilver (47.9000, 48.1200, 40.6400, 41.6400, -6.31000)
1600 50
1500
45
1400
1300 40
1200
35
1100
1000 30
900 25
800
700 20
600 15
500
400 10
300 5
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 200 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
3MT COPPER USD (9,230.00, 9,350.00, 9,220.00, 9,350.00, +30.0000) 10500 3MT ZINC DLR (2,224.00, 2,245.00, 2,224.00, 2,245.00, -2.00000)
10000 4500
9500
9000 4000
8500
8000
7500 3500
7000
6500 3000
6000
5500 2500
5000
4500
4000 2000
3500
3000 1500
2500
2000 1000
1500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA1000 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 500
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
3MT ALUMINIUM $ (2,750.00, 2,798.00, 2,747.00, 2,797.00, +29.5000) 3500 3MT LEAD DLR (2,512.00, 2,515.00, 2,509.00, 2,509.50, +18.5000) 4000

3500
3000
3000

2500 2500

2000

2000
1500

1000
1500
500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-9- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011
Indices, weekly charts
DowJones Industrial Average, US S & P 500, US
Dow Jones INDU AVERAGE NDX (12,810.20, 12,876.00, 12,750.00, 12,807.50, -3.00000) 14500 S&P 500 INDEX (1,363.61, 1,370.51, 1,349.71, 1,356.62, -6.98999) 1600
14000
13500 1500
13000
12500 1400
12000 1300
11500
11000 1200
10500
10000 1100
9500 1000
9000
8500 900
8000
7500 800
7000
700
6500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 6000 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

FTSE-100, UK Strait Times Index, Singapore

FTSE 100 INDEX (6,069.90, 6,103.73, 6,050.71, 6,082.88, +12.9800) STI FTSE STRAIT TIMES INDEX (3,180.68, 3,182.46, 3,143.73, 3,153.57, -26.2900) 4000
7000

6500
3500

6000
3000
5500

5000 2500

4500
2000

4000
1500
3500

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA1000

15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9
50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Shangai Composite Index, China BSE Sensex, India

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX (2,911.51, 2,933.46, 2,890.22, 2,932.19, +20.6799) BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX (19,224.00, 19,253.90, 18,502.40, 18,534.70, -601.301)
6000
20000
5500
5000
4500 15000
4000
3500
3000 10000

2500
2000
5000
1500
1000
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly VIX (Volatility Index)

S&P GSCI INDEX (755.840, 761.660, 739.740, 742.868, -15.9270) Volatility Index (15.0700, 17.2900, 15.0700, 16.7000, +1.95000) 95
900 90
850 85
800 80
750 75
700 70
650 65
60
600
55
550 50
500 45
450 40
400 35
350 30
300 25
250 20
200 15
150 10
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 5
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-10- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011
Currencies, weekly charts
US Dollar Index spot GBP / USD
US DOLLAR INDEX (72.9930, 73.3190, 72.7220, 73.1400, +0.20700) UK pound sterling (1.67090, 1.67370, 1.64620, 1.64800, -0.02210) 2.15
120 2.10
2.05
115
2.00
110 1.95
1.90
105 1.85
100 1.80
1.75
95 1.70
90 1.65
1.60
85 1.55
80 1.50
1.45
75 1.40
70 1.35
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 1.30
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

EUR / USD USD / JPY

EuroDollar (1.48230, 1.49020, 1.47510, 1.48260, +0.00270) Japanes e yen (81.1100, 81.6900, 80.6600, 80.9300, -0.28000)
1.60 135
1.55 130
1.50
1.45 125
1.40 120
1.35 115
1.30
1.25 110
1.20 105
1.15 100
1.10
1.05 95
1.00 90
0.95
85
0.90
0.85 80

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 0.80 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 75

Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USD / SGD USD / MYR

Singapore dollar (1.22230, 1.22920, 1.22080, 1.22790, +0.00400) Malaysian ringgit (2.96100, 2.97900, 2.96100, 2.97300, +0.01200)
1.85
1.80 3.9
1.75 3.8
1.70
3.7
1.65
1.60 3.6

1.55 3.5
1.50 3.4
1.45
3.3
1.40
3.2
1.35
1.30 3.1
1.25 3.0
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 1.20 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 2.9
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USD 10 year treasury yield EUR 10 year treasury yield

Line, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 3.2529 Yield Line, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 3.27 Yield
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 3.0833 SMA, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 2.852

5 4.5
4.5
4
4
3.5 3.5
3
3
2.5
.1234 2.5
.123
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 35.602 Value
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 46.373 StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 46.242 Value
30 StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 58.097
.123 .123
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-11- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011

Macroeconomic gauge
Unemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%) Industrial production index (manufacturing) in US, GBP and JPY
Value Value
Line, QaUSUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 8.8 Line, QaGBMFG/CA, (Base Year=2006)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 92.7
Line, QaJPUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 4.6 Germany Line, QaUSMFG/CA, (Base Year=2007)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 90.709 JPY
Line, QaXZUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 9.9 Line, QaJPIPMAN/A, (Base Year=2005)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 82.9
Line, QaGBUEMPYT/A, (S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 7.8 10 100
Line, QaDEUNR/A, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 7.10
EUR 9 95
8 GBP
90
7
US 85
USD 6
UK JPY 80
5
75

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Automobile sales in US and China US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence
Value Value Value
Line, QaCNDSLSAUT, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 1.828M Line, QaUSNPMI/A, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 60.4
Line, QaUSVHLS, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 1.242M Line, QaUSNMFGPMI, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 57.3 ISM manufacturing
1.6M
120 Line, QaUSCONCF/A, (Base Year=1985)(S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 65.4 55
1.4M

1.2M 100
50
USA 1M
80
ISM services 45
800,000

600,000 60
40
400,000 CB Consumer confidence, LHS
40
China 200,000 35

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Key interest rates, in % Consumer price inflation (YoY), %
INR
Price Value
Line, QJPPRIME=, 31/05/2011, 1.7 PctCng, QaUSCPI/A, (Base Year=1982)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 2.702
Line, QGBPRIME=, 31/05/2011, 0.5 PctCng, QaGBCPI, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 4.053
Line, QECBMRO=ECBF, 31/05/2011, 1.25 Line, QaINCPINET, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 8.823 12
Line, QUSPRIME=, 31/05/2011, 3.25 10 Line, QaXZCPIALL, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 2.8
Line, QaINPLR, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 9.5 Line, QaJPCPINY, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 0
Line, QaCNLENR1Y, (S1, S2), 31/05/2011, 6.31 US Line, QaCNCPIYY, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 5.383 9
8
CNY 6
6

GBP 3
4

EUR
2 0
JPY
.12 .123
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research

-12- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011

Traders positions vs. Price

Soybean at CBOT Soybean oil at CBOT
200

800 1000 1200 1400 1600

100
Producers Net Producers Net
Swap dealers Net Swap dealers Net

60
100

Speculative Net Speculative Net

50
Close price,RHS Close price,RHS

price, USc/bushel

price, USc/lb
0

50
'000 lots

'000 lots
-50
-100

40
-200 -150 -100
-200

30
-300

600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sugar No:11 at ICE Crude oil at NYMEX

140
Producers Net Producers Net
200

Swap dealers Net Swap dealers Net

30

120
Speculative Net Speculative Net

200
Close price,RHS Close price,RHS

price, US$/barrel
0

25

100
price, USc/lb
'000 lots

'000 lots
0
20
-200

80
-200
15

60
-400

10

40
-400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Gold at COMEX Copper at COMEX

300

60

450
Producers Net Producers Net
1400

Swap dealers Net Swap dealers Net

200

40

250 300 350 400

Speculative Net Speculative Net
Close price,RHS Close price,RHS
100

20
1200
price, USD / t.oz

price, USc / lb
'000 lots

'000 lots
0
0

1000

-20
-300 -200 -100

800

-40

150 200
-60
600

-80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Corn at CBOT Cotton No:2 at ICE 200

100
400

Producers Net Producers Net

700

Swap dealers Net Swap dealers Net

50

Speculative Net Speculative Net

200

Close price,RHS Close price,RHS

600

150
price, USc / bushel

price, USc / lb
0
'000 lots

'000 lots
500

-100 -50
-600 -400 -200

100
400
300

-200

50
200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: CFTC and Pacrim research

-13- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011

Spreads corner
PME vs. ULSD CPO vs. PFAD

Spread, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 03/05/2011, 400.17 Value

Spread, QPME-CIFARA, 04/05/2011, 299.75 Value
EMA, Spread(QPALM-MYFOB-P1, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1), 03/05/2011, 213.96 USD
SMA, Spread(QPME-CIFARA, QULSD10-C-NWE), 04/05/2011, 353.63 USD
T
T 300
200 252.58
200

0 100
.12 .12

Line, QPME-CIFARA, 29/04/2011, 1,335 Price Line, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,145.17 Price
Line, QULSD10-C-NWE, 04/05/2011, 1,035.25 USD Line, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1, 03/05/2011, 745 USD
T
T
900 800

600 600

.12 400
.12
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF

Spread, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 03/05/2011, 170 Value Spread, QPALK-MYID-P1, 03/05/2011, 770 Value
EMA, Spread(QCNUT-PHID-P1, QPALK-MYID-P1), 03/05/2011, 3.68 USD SMA, Spread(QPALK-MYID-P1, QPALM-MYCRD-P1), 03/05/2011, 605.76 USD
T
T
100
400
0
-100
0
.12
.12

Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,920 Price

Line, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 03/05/2011, 2,090 Price
Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,920 USD Line, QPALM-MYCRD-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,150 USD
T T

1,000
1,000
500
500
.12
.12
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

SBO @ CBOT vs. CPO @ BMD Sugar white premium, Sug@LIFFE vs. Sug @ ICE

Spread, QBOc1, 04/05/2011, 170.855 Value Line, QLSUc1, 03/05/2011, 609.5 Price
SMA, Spread(QBOc1, QKPOc3), 04/05/2011, 81.284 USD Line, QSBc1, 03/05/2011, 486.1 USD
T T
200
400
100
200
0
.123 .1

Line, QBOc1, 04/05/2011, 1,263.69 Price Spread, QLSUc1, 03/05/2011, 123.38 Value
Line, QKPOc3, 04/05/2011, 1,092.836 USD SMA, Spread(QLSUc1, QSBc1), 03/05/2011, 96.501 USD
T T
900 100

600 50

300 0
.123 .123
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1990 2000 2010 [Delayed] 1980 1990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-14- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Apr 2011

Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sources
we believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as
a recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.

-15- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd