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Adiah afraz
April 13 2011
Carl Sagan, a world renowned astronomer and cosmologist, in his article ³Nuclear Winter´ tries
to enlighten the world about grievous physical and chemical effects of a thermonuclear war. At
the time his article was published, Oct 31 1983, the two Superpowers of the world were
competing in an Arms race; both excelling in the production of nuclear weapons. However, this
article, to some extent has helped both countries to realize the intensity of a nuclear war; Ronald
Reagan, president of USA, in one of his interviews said ³« as a great many reputable scientists
are telling us, that such a war could just end up in no victory for anyone, because we would wipe
out the Earth as we know it´(Ronald Reagan, interview with Bernard Weinraub and Gerald
Boyd, New York Times). Although, author has excelled in grabbing the reader¶s attention by use
of certain facts and figures, emotional appeal, persuasive and alarming tone and has achieved his
goal of making the reader aware of dire circumstances of a nuclear war, yet his findings are more
theoretical and based on computer models and lacks substantial support for generalizations about
southern hemisphere.
In his essay, Carl Sagan explains the destructive effects of a nuclear War. He claims that
the nuclear arsenal produced during cold war is much more than it is needed to destroy the
world. Portraying the aftermath of a nuclear war, author writes that ³buildings would vaporize,
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people will be reduced to atoms´ and ³shadows and structures would blow like matchsticks´
(Sagan, 1). In addition, author uses the results of the study of World Health Organization and
states that more than 2 billion people, which is around half of the world¶s population would be
destroyed. Moreover, writer reveals the critical effects on Ozone layer, which shields the earth
from harmful solar ultraviolet radiations, if destroyed can have serious consequences for the
biology of Planet. Furthermore, Carl compares the current situation of Mars with the after-effects
of a nuclear war. Nuclear explosions would produce heavy smoke because of air bursts and
would emit huge amount of fine dust due to ground bursts in the atmosphere, absorbing sunlight
and causing dark shadows which will reduce the average global temperature to minus 25 Celsius,
somewhat similar to the conditions of mars. Hence, plants, crops and animals would be
destroyed and the human survivors would starve. The author concludes that although we haven¶t
experienced a global thermonuclear war since the invention of nuclear weapons, yet men and
Analyzing the article critically reveals that the article is well structured along with
adequate use of literary devices including personification and similes. Author personifies the
nuclear weapons with faithful servants: ³the detonation of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons
that now sit quietly, inconspicuously, in missile silos, submarines and long-range bombers,
faithful servants awaiting orders´ (Sagan, 1). Moreover, use of sentences like ³people would be
reduced to atoms and shadows´ and ³outlying structures will be blown down like matchsticks´
(Sagan, 1) creates the image of deadly consequences of a nuclear war in the mind of readers. In
addition, to enforce the seriousness of the topic, Author has used emotional appeal as he says ³I
do not think our luck can hold forever. Concentrating always on near future, we have ignored the
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long term consequences of our actions. We have placed our civilization and our species in
In addition to the well structured article, the author has used good examples and
estimations which have created interest for the reader in this article. Author begins with the
estimations of the destruction that can occur by 2 megatons of explosives that is equivalent to 2
million tons of TNT, equal to total explosives used in World War 2 (Sagan, 1). The credibility of
these estimations can¶t b doubted and need no reference as author himself is credible enough and
his forces included Richard Turco, who has studies the effects of nuclear weapons for many
years (Sagan, 2). In addition, author has used findings of the World Health Organization to
support his arguments and make his essay more credible. Furthermore, legitimacy of the article
does not need to be questioned as author gives the reference of his colleagues, who were the part
of NASA¶s Ames Research center. Moreover, as author says ³Our results have been carefully
scrutinized by more than 100 scientists in the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union´ leaves
no doubt that his arguments, findings, and results are authentic, valid and credible (Sagan, 5).
Furthermore, the author has achieved his purpose; his persuasive style of writing
influences the reader to believe in his arguments. Moreover, the author grabs the attention and
alerts his audience by using alarming tone and scaring them of the devastating effects of nuclear
war as he says ³Some of what I am about to describe is horrifying. I know, because it horrifies
In spite of this, most of the findings of Carl Sagan in his article are more theoretical
rather than practical. World had encountered a nuclear war when Hiroshima n Nagasaki were
bombarded with nuclear bombs in World War II. Although children there are still born with
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disabilities, yet nothing such as µNuclear Winter¶ was witnessed at that time. In addition, most of
the results such as µdeadly Gloom¶ and the amount of dust and smoke generated are merely
hypothesized scenarios, which means that if the model presented by the author has to be true, the
exact amounts of dust and smoke have to enter the atmosphere in real too as generated by the
computer-based models. Therefore, the author¶s analysis of the effects of a nuclear war may have
Besides, the author has failed to analyze the effects of a nuclear war in southern
hemisphere and has generalized the effects linking them with northern hemisphere without any
substantial support. Likewise, author has constrained his findings only to climatic effects and has
ignored other, maybe important, effects that may had affected the author¶s findings significantly.
Nevertheless, author has succeeded in creating awareness amongst the readers about the
serious disasters of nuclear war. Author¶s style of writing, that is informative and persuasive
simultaneously, grabs the reader¶s interest and makes them to agree to the author¶s views. In
addition, author¶s use of personification, similes, emotional appeal and credible support
persuades the reader to agree with the author¶s thought of disarmament of nuclear weapons. On
the other hand, the generalizations and results of computer based models together with omission
In brief, author has achieved his motive of persuading his audience against the
development of nuclear arsenals. He has successfully created awareness amongst his audience
about the catastrophic effects of nuclear war. Examples and support provided by the author and
their credibility makes his article more effective. Despite of few weaknesses, overall author has
Works Cited
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