Why are the following countries at different stages of the Demographic Transition

Model?

• Amazon Rainforest in Brazil

• Tanzania
• Kerala in Southern India
• England
• Japan

There are several factors that determine at what stage a place is on the Demographic
Transition Model. However, it is mainly due to whether the place in question is an
economically developed country or not. More economically developed countries will be at
another stage to a less economically developed country.

The Amazon Rainforest in Brazil is at stage one of the Demographic Transition Model
(DTM) meaning that birth and death rates are high. Stage one of the DTM, shows a
consistent fluctuation in birth and death rates, unlike stage 3 for example, which shows a
significant decrease in birth rates, this is where England or Japan is on the DTM. People
who are living in remote areas of Brazil such as the Amazon Rainforest are not coming in
contact with the modern world. Therefore, they are not aware of healthier sanitation or
improved medicine that society has come across. This means that these small communities
have a shorter life expectancy because they can easily contract disease such as the
Bubonic plague and cholera, which are not so common in MEDC’s because vaccinations
are available. Additionally, famine and under nourishment contribute to the high death rates
because families cannot afford to buy food. There is also a lack of clean water and
sewerage facilities meaning water borne diseases can easily be contracted from the dirty
rivers and lakes. The lack of medical care is also a primary factor in why the death rates in
Brazil are so high.

The birth rates are so high because families in the Amazon Rainforest tend to have a lot of
children to help work on the land and to carry extra food and water for the family. When the
parents contract a disease or get to old to work, then the children have to work full-time to
provide for the family. It is also due to the death rate being so high, that families are having
so many children. Numerous children catch disease when they are very young, killing them
when they are just babies. Families in Brazil have a lot of children to make up for this.
Having a lot of children also increase a person’s importance in the village and makes the
family more prominent. People living in the Amazon are often from tribes that forbid
contraception. The main reason for a family to have a lot of children is so that they can work
and create a stable income for the family.

I think that the Amazon rainforest will soon move on to the second stage of the DTM. The
birth rates will still be high because the families will still need workers but death rates will
decrease slightly because sanitation and medical care will begin to steadily improve.

Stage 2 of the DTM shows birth rates remaining high but death rates decreasing because
of the improvement in medical care and cleanliness. In Tanzania, over the past 100 years
the country was at the end of stage 1. More recently Tanzania has moved into stage 2
where the death rate has fallen because health care programmes have taken place.
Children are now getting vaccinated against major diseases and fewer children will die from
unclean water. Families living in Tanzania, which is an LEDC are not as unfortunate as
those living in Brazil. Parents are now being trained to bring their children up on a healthier
and more nutritional diet meaning that children are generally in good health and more parts
of Tanzania are being issued safe water supplies. A high percentage of Tanzania’s
population is made up of people under the age of 35, so the death rate is now low.
In Tanzania, women are being more careful about how many children they have and when
they have them. Families still need a lot of children so that they can work but Tanzanian
mothers have taken to family planning. Now, mothers are working out when it is the safest
and healthiest time to have a child, so that there own and their child’s life is not put in any
danger. This is also reducing the death rate. The birth rate still stays high because more
children means more workers and carers and as the Tanzanian government do not provide
old age pensions it is up to the children to work for their parents health. A country in stage 2
of the DTM shows that they are improving their economy and can therefore supply cleaner
water, better sewerage facilities and enhanced medical care. There has also been an
improvement in the quality and the quantity of food that is being supplied in the country so
people are eating a healthy 2-3 meals a day.

In the future, Tanzania will successfully move on to stage 3 of the DTM because the death
rate will keep falling and soon because of controlled birth and family planning, the birth rate
will soon decrease as well.

Kerala in Southern India is on stage 3 of the DTM unlike the rest of the country because it
does not just rely on agriculture as its source of employment; this means that families will
not need to have as many children because they will not need to work on the land. The area
has made a lot of money in trade due to the canal system there; it is also very close to the
coast. Since the area is wealthier than the rest of the country, the local government can
supply the area with medical care. The government has also encouraged women to get
sterilised after having two children and they are not afraid of having this procedure because
the health care has improved so much. All of these things are causing the birth rate to
decrease.

Women are also having access to further education and pursuing careers in Kerala and are
choosing to do this before starting a family and having children. Most families are moving
from remote country areas to the cities where it is more expensive to support a child,
consequently birth rates will decrease because families will not be able to financially
support lots of children. Although, if a women has a career and chooses to raise a family at
the same time as having a career she will have less children because it is more difficult to
maintain a constructive family life if the mother is preoccupied with her work.

Stage 4 of the DTM represents a country like England where the birth rate and death rate
are low because women are not having children until they are financially stable meaning
until they have been successful in their career. Women who are in their thirties and set in
their careers feel they have more to lose if they begin a family now, and because of this the
government are trying to reduce the financial impact that children make on successful
women. The situation in an MEDC like England is different to the situation in places like the
Amazon Rainforest in Brazil. In an LEDC, the families need as many workers as they can to
make any profit so they have more children. The more children per family in an LEDC
means more of an income unless the family are affected by disease or famine. In an MEDC
having a child is in fact a huge investment and many people suffer financially from having
children. Subsequently, less people are choosing to start a family for this reason, this
obviously has a negative impact on the birth rate requiring it to decrease.

Health care is also very stable at stage 4 because mostly it is only MEDC’s at this stage of
the DTM and all MEDC’s have an established health care system. Therefore, treatments
and procedures are much safer and are carried out much more regularly and efficiently.
Predominantly, in an MEDC there is a better general standard of living, which is not
necessarily cost effective, contributing to the impact a child may have financially.

It can be argued that a 5th stage is needed for the DTM because in places like Japan the
death rate is higher than the birth rate meaning that there is a negative natural increase and
a decline in the population.
If all the countries in the world were at stage 4 then the population growth would not
increase at all. If the world were to achieve zero population growth then the rate in which
the Earth’s natural resources are being used up would decrease and so would pollution. If
the population of the world continued to grow and grow then there would be severe
problems in working out how to feed, clothe and house them all.

In conclusion, the 5 countries that I have spoken about all fit on to different stages of the
DTM because the economic status at which the country is at affects incline in the
population. In the Amazon Rainforest, Brazil the average way of living is so poor because
the country has very little money to develop itself. In upcoming years, the country may
become more secure and as a result its economy would become stronger so the lives of its
inhabitants would become better. In England, the average way of living it’s already at a very
high standard because the countries economy is very strong. This means that the
government can offer the general public more services to accommodate their needs.