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(Global Economy) German Industrial Production increases 0.7% in March.
(Indian Economy) India's IIP Growth came in at 7.3% for March 2011.
(Economic Calendar)
Global Economy
US consumer debts rose 0.3% (USD 33 bn) to USD 11.5 tn in the first 0.7%. Industrial production fell 0.9% in March on a YoY period, pulled
quarter of 2011 on the back of rising mortgage balances. Retail down by a decline in consumer goods. Portugal’s economy shrank
sales too rose 0.5% in April, after a 0.9% advance in March. However 0.7% in the first quarter of 2011 compared to a revised 0.6% drop in
the rise was the slowest in nine months highlighting the risks that the fourth quarter of 2010. With this decline, the country has re-
rising gasoline prices pose for the US economy. The Bloomberg entered recession.
Consumer Comfort Index dropped to -46.9 in the period to May 8. China’s inflation rose 5.3% in April for the year. The country also
UK house prices rose 0.3% in April on average to GBP 223,352 on a raised banks’ reserve requirements for the fifth time this year to
sequential basis. From a year earlier, prices were up 0.9%. 21%, up 0.5% from May 18. Besides raising interest rates and reserve
German industrial production rose 0.7% in March, after a 1.7% rise requirements, and guiding banks to limit credit growth, officials
in February, as construction surged. For the year, production has have accelerated gains in the Yuan, to tame inflation rise.
risen 11.2% when adjusted for working days. German exports also The Bank of Korea kept interest rates unchanged at 3%, opting to
surged 7.3% in march from a month ago at EUR 98.3 bn. The trade judge whether gains in the Won will contribute to a slowdown in
balance widened to EUR 18.9 bn in March from 11.9 bn in February. inflation. Hong Kong’s economy expanded 7.2% in the first quarter,
However, inflation in the European powerhouse accelerated to the fastest pace in a year, beating estimates, but increasing the
2.7% in March, from 2.3% in the previous month, due to surging risk of a bubble in the economy.
energy costs.
Spain’s economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter of 2011, the same as
the previous quarter. From the year ago period, the economy grew
Indian Economy
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India dipped 11% YoY in March under review, inflation in non-food primary articles was 28.62%
to USD 1.07 bn in the backdrop of financial turmoil in Europe. The and the fuel price index climbed 13.53% during the week under
country had received USD 1.2 bn in FDI in the corresponding period review. Also India’s April exports provisionally rose an annual
last year. For the fiscal 2010 – 11, inflows declined by 25% to USD 34.4% while imports rose 14%. India will target at least 25% export
19.43 bn compared to USD 25.83 bn in FY10. growth in this fiscal year.
Industrial output rose to 7.3% in March from a year earlier against According to Organization for Economic co-operation &
3.65% in February. Manufacturing output, which constitutes about development (OECD) India’s economy is likely to lose pace even
80% of the industrial production, rose an annual 7.9%. Better than as China and the US are expected to see good expansion in the
expected IIP numbers have allayed fears of a slowdown in the coming months. The latest assessment comes amid concerns that
economy that will allow the central bank to continue with rate hikes spiraling inflation and hawkish monetary regime could hurt India’s
to control stubbornly high inflation. economic growth. OECD’s observations are based on Composite
Food inflation fell to an 18-month low of 7.7% during the week ended Leading Indicators (CLIs) that provide early signals of turning
April 30 on the back of declining prices of pulses and vegetables, points with regard to economic expansion and slowdown. In March,
prompting the government to predict further moderation in prices CLI for India stood at 99.4 as compared to 99.7 in February. CLI for
due to record production of many food items. During the week India has been marginally falling since November 2010.
Headline Inflation by WPI (%) (Mar’11) INR Exchange Rate (As on May 6, 2011)
Annualized Rate Annualized Rate Change Change
Current 1 Week 1 Year
(current) (last month) Weekly annual
Headline Inflation USD 44.87 44.78 0.29% 45.58 -1.47%
8.98 8.31
(WPI) GBP 73.06 73.43 -0.50% 67.05 8.96%
Internals Euro 64.03 65.27 -1.90% 57.81 10.76%
Yen 55.67 55.59 0.14% 49.52 12.42%
Primary Products 12.96 14.79
Debt Market Yields (%)
Fuel Power and
12.92 11.49 10 year Gilt 8.36
Lubricants
Manufactured 1 Year Gilt 8.03
6.21 4.94 Source: CCIL
Goods
Source: CCIL
Silver ($/OZ)
360
Pr ice (USD)
Gold ($/OZ)
1300 35
Inve ntor y
90 350
1200 30
340
1100 25 80
330
1000 20
320
70
900 15 310
800 10 60 300
May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11
Silver Gold Inventory Crude Oil
USD / JPY
1.35 0.0115
USD / GBP
USD / AUD
0.95
1.6
1.3 0.9
0.011
1.55
1.25 0.85
1.5 0.0105
1.2
0.8
1.15 1.45 0.01
0.75
1.1 1.4
0.0095 0.7
May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11
May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11
USD / EUR USD / GBP
USD / JPY USD / AUD
Economic Calendar
India US
Date Event Period Prior Date Event Period Prior
16-May Monthly WPI YoY APR 8.98% 16-May Empire Manufacturing MAY 21.70
19-May Food Articles WPI YoY 7-May 7.70% 16-May NAHB Housing Mkt Index MAY 16.00
19-May Fuel Power Light WPI YoY 7-May 12.25% 17-May Housing Starts APR 549K
19-May Primary Articles WPI YoY 7-May 11.96% 17-May Building Permits APR 594K
17-May Industrial Production APR 0.8%
18-May Minutes of FOMC Meeting
19-May Initial Jobless Claims 14-May 434K
19-May Continuing Claims 7-May 3756K
19-May Existing Home Sales APR 5.10M
Nikkei-225 9,648.77 -2.1% import prices increasing 2.2%, producer prices increasing by 0.8% and consumer
Key Indices (Indian) prices up 0.4%. Core CPI was higher by 0.2%. The US trade balance was higher
% Change than expected at $48.2 billion. US Data to watch next week: Empire Manufacturing,
Indices Close
(week) Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production,
BSE SENSEX 18,531.28 0.1% Minutes of FOMC Meeting, Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators.
BSE IT 6,039.60 -0.3% in cash market, though participation remained muted. Data to watch next week:
Weekly Gainers (BSE 100) Monthly Wholesale Prices, YoY%, Food Articles WPI YoY, Fuel Power Light
WPI YoY, Primary Articles WPI YoY.
Ranbaxy 491.85 11.3%
BSE 130.6 policy statement. Some pullback rally was seen on Friday’s session after the
election results, but unlikely to sustain at higher levels. Trend remains bearish
NSE CASH 466.9
as FIIs have been continuously selling Index futures and stock futures over
NSE F&O 5399.6
the last few weeks. Results to watch in the coming week: MRPL, JSW Steel, JP
Institutional Activity in INR Bn (Weekly)
Associates, Optocircuits, Uco bank, HT Media, Bajaj-Auto, LT, Sre Infra, ICSA.
Institutions Net Inflow
FII -2.3
DIIs 4.0
• India VIX for the week ended at 20.63, down 0.34 from previous week’s
5,000,000
4,000,000 close (20.97). In the week VIX touched low of 19.40 and high of 21.95.
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
Weekly Open Interest Analysis (Nifty Option)
- Across all expiries, open interest is highest at the 6000, 5800, 5700 call options,
5200
5400
5600
5700
5800
5900
6100
5300
5500
6000
6200
Strike
while open interest in the put options is highest at 5500, 5400, 5300 strike
prices, suggesting 5300-5800 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short
Call Option
Change in OI
4,000,000
Put Option
term.
3,000,000
1,000,000
0
5200
5300
5500
5600
5700
6000
6100
5400
5800
5900
6200
(1,000,000)
Top 5 Price Gainers
(2,000,000)
SCRIPS % Change - Price %Change - Volume % Change
Strike Cash Future Cash Future in OI
RANBAXY 13.95% 13.31% 441.73% 59.15% 4.15%
Cement HDIL 12.67% 12.26% -57.56% -7.75% -13.94%
CapitalGoods
HINDUNILVR 11.15% 11.70% 29.95% 214.99% 18.67%
IT
OFSS 11.78% 11.14% 6.97% 204.12% -7.20%
Pharma
Sec tors
Auto
SUZLON 8.87% 9.03% 10.74% 82.58% 9.87%
Metal&Mining
Power
Cash Future Cash Future in OI
RENUKA -11.32% -11.28% 182.41% 138.27% 23.85%
50%
-100%
-50%
0%
100%
150%
200%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
250%
11-May
13-May
9-May
12-May
Technical Analysis
(Source: Iris)
Conclusion
Last week Nifty shut on a marginal negative note @ 5545, down by 6 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly
chart has formed doji candle stick pattern, which shows sideways sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 5575
and made a low of 5472 and made high of 5605, then finally closed neutral at 5551. Stochastic and the RSI are slightly oversold signaling
that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. The close below the 200 day moving average (5755) indicates the short
term trend could be turning sideways to negative. Stochastic trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move higher especially
if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 5450-5600. The next area of
resistance is around 5622-5675. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 5450-5375 levels. For short
term trading long positions, stop loss of 5440 is advisable.
Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5622-5675 and supports at 5450-5375.
Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 11273-11455 and supports at 10850-10712.
Weekly Recommendations
IRB
LTP 165.00.
View: Positive
Oscillators Analysis: Stochastic and RSI are positive crossover and are in oversold territory on daily chart reading, which indicate positive
sentiment in stock momentum with decent volume support.
Pattern Analysis: A clear piercing bullish hammer candle stick formation on weekly chart, which indicates stock may upside till resistance
level, is a confirmation of a trend in that direction.
Technical Analysis:
IRB has bullish candle stick on weekly chart with good volume support. Stock has double bottom formation around 156-160 levels. Daily
RSI has shown positive crossover into oversold territory which will tend to supports reversal action if it occurs. The market tilt is positive
with the close above 10 DMA on daily chart basis. The next area of resistance is around 187 and 200, while 1st support hits at 161 and below
there at 158. It is also heading towards Fibonacci resistance level 23.60% at 187.00.
We recommended the stock market price and on declines around 161 with stop loss at 150 (closing basis) for a target of Rs. 187-198.
JSWSTEEL.
LTP 935.00.
View: Positive
Oscillators Analysis: MACD and RSI are positive crossover and are in oversold territory on weekly chart reading, which indicate positive
sentiment in stock momentum.
Pattern Analysis: A clear head and shoulders pattern neckline breakout (positive trend) and shoulder resistance and breakout at 952,
which indicates stock upside is a confirmation of a trend in that direction with volume support.
Technical Analysis:
On daily chart JSWSTEEL has been trading above medium term moving average (65 DMA) crossover at 920 levels, which indicates
positive sentiment in short term trading and strong buying pressure above resistance zone around Rs.952, we expect the momentum to
continue till 1050 on the upside (resistance zone). And any genuine correction should see in stock price around supports at 920, which
should be used as a buying opportunity for the potential target 1050.00.
We recommended the stock initially above 952 and declines till 920, with stop loss at 895.00(on closing basis) for a target of Rs. 1050.00.
Banking
• Union Bank of India has got clearance from the Reserve Bank of India for opening new branches in Sydney and Belgium. The bank at
present has one established branch in Hong Kong and representative offices in Sydney, Shanghai, London, Beijing and Abu Dhabi. It
is also opening a subsidiary in the United Kingdom and has already got the permission to open representative office in Canada.
Information Technology
• Persistent Systems Ltd. has announced the expansion of the company’s board of directors with the inclusion of Sanjay Bhattacharya,
former MD, SBI as an independent director on the board.
• Wipro Ltd. has signed an agreement to acquire a majority stake in Brazil-based hydraulic cylinder manufacturer RKM Equipmentos
Hidraulicos Ltd.
• CMC Ltd. has announced a 1:1 bonus as well as a dividend of 200% on its common stock.
Logistics
• Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone intends to invest nearly INR 32 bn to expand port operations across India over the next two to
three years. It is investing INR 22 - 25 bn to develop the port at Hazira in Gujarat. It plans to pump in INR 4 bn in Goa and another INR
3 bn for the terminal at Vizag.
Telecom
• The Telecom Ministry has issued a show cause notice to Idea Cellular for the Karnataka circle and Spice for the Andhra Pradesh circle
for cancellation of licences on account of a delay in network roll-out.
Ø Mutual Funds (MFs) made investments worth Rs 539.30 crore and sold off Rs
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
395.80 crore worth of equities on May 11, 2011, according to data released by the
Debt Equity
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). Thus, MFs stood as net buyers of
Rs 143.50 crore in equities on that day In the month of May, MFs have made total
investments of Rs 4432.5996 crore and sold off Rs 3908.5002 crore worth of equities, FII Trading Activity ( In Billions)
so far. 13-May
12-May
11-May
10-May
9-May
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
Debt Equity
Source: Accord Fintech
Weekly Activity
Equity (INR in Bn) Debt (INR in Bn)
Date
Purchase Sales Net Purchase /Sales Purchase Sales Net Purchase /Sales
Mutual Fund Activity
11-May-11 5.39 3.96 1.44 26.20 21.38 4.82
10-May-11 4.57 3.21 1.36 17.52 30.01 -12.49
9-May-11 2.74 3.77 -1.03 18.87 29.37 -10.51
FII Activity
13-May-11 16.03 24.79 -8.77 12.75 11.55 1.20
12-May-11 23.74 21.30 2.44 2.39 8.00 -5.61
11-May-11 14.75 13.74 1.01 11.79 0.92 10.88
10-May-11 19.36 16.92 2.44 12.25 6.55 5.70
9-May-11 26.14 29.65 -3.51 4.23 3.78 0.45
Source: Accord Fintech
Dividend Declaration
Scheme Name Category Record Date Gross Corporate Non-Corporate
FT India Cap Safety-5Yrs(AD) Hybrid 20-May-11 11.01 11.01 11.01
FT India CPO-5 Yrs(AD) Hybrid 20-May-11 7.48 7.48 7.48
ICICI Pru FMP-51-14M-D-Ret(D) Debt 18-May-11 3.38 3.38 3.38
ICICI Pru Qrtly Inv I-Inst(D) Debt 18-May-11 1.21 1.21 1.21
Source: Accord Fintech
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