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EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. To vote for EFG hermes, go to www.euromoney.com / MiddleEast2011.
EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. To vote for EFG hermes, go to www.euromoney.com / MiddleEast2011.
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EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. To vote for EFG hermes, go to www.euromoney.com / MiddleEast2011.
Drepturi de autor:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Formate disponibile
Descărcați ca PDF, TXT sau citiți online pe Scribd
EuroMoney
is
currently
conducting
its
Middle
East
Research
and
Best
Managed
Companies
Survey.
The
EuroMoney
Survey
runs
until
24
June
2011.
To
vote
for
EFG
Hermes,
go
to
www.euromoney.com/MiddleEast2011
Thank
you
for
your
support.
UAE
MSCI
to
announce
the
UAE’s
and
Qatar’s
market
assessment
on
21
June
2011
Emaar
confirms
Dubai
Bank
stake
write-off
Aramex
amends
BOD’s
constitution
Emirates
Islamic
Bank’s
CEO
resigned,
acting
CEO
appointed
Kuwait
Jazeera
Airways
begins
flights
to
Cairo
Parliament
confrontation
adjourns
session
to
the
end
of
May
2011
Qatar
QCB
offers
local
banks
QAR2
billion
in
T-bills
QNB
launches
broking,
advisory
arm
Aamal
to
list
GDRs
on
London
Stock
Exchange
in
June
2011
Bahrain
Consumer
prices
fell
2.3%
Y-o-Y
in
April
2011
EFG
Hermes
Research
Qatar
Economics
and
Banking
Update
-
Deepening
Monetary
Liquidity
Management:
Slightly
Positive
for
Banks’
Margins
-
18
May
2011
Bank
Muscat
-
Valuation
Undemanding,
but
Lacking
Catalyst;
Maintain
Neutral
Rating
-
Flash
Note
-
18
May
2011
Agenda
Qatar
Wed
25
May
>>
Vodafone
Qatar
FY2010-‐2011
(March
year
end)
results
Wed
1
June
>>
Al
Khaliji
Commercial
Bank
BOD
meeting
UAE
News
MSCI
to
announce
the
UAE’s
and
Qatar’s
market
assessment
on
21
June
2011
MSCI
Inc.
will
announce
on
21
June
2011,
shortly
after
11:00
pm
Central
European
Time
(CEST),
the
results
of
the
2011
Annual
Market
Classification
Review,
the
index
provider
announced
on
its
website.
Four
MSCI
Country
Indices
are
currently
included
on
the
review
list
of
the
2011
Annual
Market
Classification
Review:
MSCI
Qatar
and
MSCI
United
Arab
Emirates
Indices
for
a
potential
reclassification
to
Emerging
Markets,
and
MSCI
Korea
and
MSCI
Taiwan
Indices
for
a
potential
reclassification
to
Developed
Markets.
(MSCI
Website)
Emaar
confirms
Dubai
Bank
stake
write-off
Emaar
(EMAR.DU)
has
confirmed
in
a
statement
that
it
will
write
off
its
AED172.4
million
stake
in
Dubai
Bank
in
2Q2011,
as
expected.
We
currently
value
Emaar’s
stake
in
Dubai
Bank
at
AED173
million
(at
a
50%
discount
to
the
1H2010
book
value);
the
investment
was
subsequently
impaired
in
4Q2010
to
AED172.4
million.
The
complete
write-‐off
of
the
stake
will
decrease
our
current
fair
value
slightly
to
AED5.12/share,
or
by
0.6%.
We
maintain
our
Buy
on
the
stock
with
our
AED5.15
fair
value
providing
significant
upside
potential
from
the
current
levels.
(Company
Disclosure,
Jad
Abbas)
Aramex
amends
BOD’s
constitution
Aramex
(ARMX.DU)
announced
that
its
EGM
approved,
on
18
May
2011,
amending
Article
22
of
the
board
of
director’s
(BOD)
constitution,
allowing
the
board
to
be
constituted
of
nine
members
instead
of
eight
and
for
the
majority
of
the
board
to
be
GCC
nationals
instead
of
UAE
nationals.
(Company
Disclosure)
Emirates
Islamic
Bank’s
CEO
resigned,
acting
CEO
appointed
Emirates
NBD
(ENBD.DU)
said
on
18
May
2011
that
the
CEO
of
its
Islamic
banking
division
(Emirates
Islamic
Bank)
resigned
and
that
it
named
Abdulla
Showaiter
as
the
unit’s
acting
CEO.
(Zawya
Dow
Jones)
Jazeera
Airways
begins
flights
to
Cairo
Jazeera
Airways
(JAZK.KW)
launches
the
Kuwait–Cairo
route
with
10
flights
per
week,
which
it
plans
to
increase
to
21
flights
per
week
by
16
June
2011.
With
the
addition
of
this
new
route,
Jazeera
now
flies
to
six
Egyptian
destinations:
Alexandria,
Cairo,
Luxor,
Sharm
El
Sheikh,
Assuit
and
Sohag.
(Zawya
Dow
Jones)
Parliament
confrontation
adjourns
session
to
the
end
of
May
2011
According
to
press
reports,
a
scuffle
broke
out
in
the
parliament
as
a
result
of
which
the
session
was
adjourned
to
31
May
2011.
The
altercation
appeared
to
play
along
sectarian
lines,
as
a
Shiite
pro-‐government
MP
Hussein
al-‐Qallaf
labelled
Kuwaiti
detainees
in
Guantanamo
as
terrorists,
which
offended
Salafist
lawmakers.
(Reuters)
Qatar
News
QCB
offers
local
banks
QAR2
billion
in
T-bills
The
Qatar
Central
Bank
(QCB)
has
offered
treasury
bills
(T-‐bills)
worth
QAR2
billion
(USD549
million)
to
the
banking
sector
to
manage
the
liquidity
of
local
banks,
Qatar
News
Agency
(QNA)
quoted
the
Central
Bank
Governor,
Sheikh
Abdullah
bin
Saud
al-‐Thani,
as
saying.
The
QCB
will
continue
issuing
bills
worth
QAR2
billion
per
month
in
the
coming
period,
QNA
reported.
In
April,
the
QCB
slashed
key
interest
rates
by
at
least
50
basis
points
for
the
first
time
since
August
2010.
We
see
the
monthly
T-‐bill
auctions
as
an
important
step
towards
deepening
monetary
policy
and
liquidity
management
tools,
with
the
focus
in
the
short
term
to
remain
on
absorbing
excess
liquidity
from
the
banking
sector.
We,
however,
believe
that
the
QCB
and
the
government
will
ensure
that
there
is
ample
liquidity
in
the
banking
system
for
economic
needs.
(Reuters,
Monica
Malik)
QNB
launches
broking,
advisory
arm
Qatar
National
Bank
(QNB)
[QNBK.QA]
announced
yesterday
that
it
has
launched
a
new
broking
and
advisory
unit
after
receiving
a
licence
from
Qatar’s
Financial
Markets
Authority,
Zawya
Dow
Jones
reported.
QNB
Financial
Services
(QNBFS)
“will
offer
a
range
of
services
to
foreign
institutional
investors,
mutual
funds,
domestic
institutional
investors,
high-‐net
worth
individuals,
retail
and
corporate
clients,
including
brokerage,
research
and
advisory
services”
with
fund
management
and
custody
also
planned
at
a
later
stage,
the
company
said
in
a
statement.
The
Qatar
Financial
Markets
Authority
had
issued
broking
licences
last
year
to
domestic
banks,
and
we
expect
a
number
of
banks
to
follow
QNB
in
launching
broking
businesses,
a
move
that
will
potential
boost
their
non-‐interest
income.
(Zawya
Dow
Jones,
Elena
Sanchez-‐Cabezudo)
Aamal
to
list
GDRs
on
London
Stock
Exchange
in
June
2011
Aamal
Company
(AHCS.QA)
announced
that
it
plans
to
offer
the
company’s
ordinary
shares
in
the
form
of
global
depository
receipts
(GDRs)
to
be
listed
on
the
London
Stock
Exchange
in
June
2011,
the
company
said
in
a
statement
to
the
Qatar
Exchange.
The
offering
consists
of
118.8
million
shares
held
by
H.E.
Sheikh
Faisal
Bin
Qassim
Al
Thani,
representing
up
to
24.0%
of
Aamal’s
share
capital
to
be
offered
in
the
form
of
GDRs
to
institutional
investors
outside
the
United
States
in
reliance
on
Regulation
S
and
to
certain
qualified
institutional
buyers
in
the
United
States
under
Rule
144A.
The
company’s
free
float
is
expected
to
increase
to
a
maximum
of
24.3%
from
approximately
0.3%,
following
the
offering.
Aamal
will
maintain
its
listing
on
the
Qatar
Exchange.
(Qatar
Exchange)
Bahrain
News
Consumer
prices
fell
2.3%
Y-o-Y
in
April
2011
Bahrain’s
consumer
prices
fell
2.3%
Y-‐o-‐Y
in
April
2011,
as
housing
costs
plunged.
Housing
and
utilities
costs
fell
14.2%
Y-‐o-‐Y,
while
food
prices
increased
0.4%
Y-‐o-‐Y,
according
to
data
published
by
the
Central
Informatics
Organisation.
We
expect
an
annual
average
inflation
of
1.7%
in
Bahrain
for
2011.
(Bloomberg,
Monica
Malik)
EFG
Hermes
Research
Qatar
Economics
and
Banking
Update
-
Deepening
Monetary
Liquidity
Management:
Slightly
Positive
for
Banks’
Margins
-
18
May
2011
Qatar
to
Start
Monthly
T-‐Bill
Auctions
in
June:
The
Qatar
Central
Bank
(QCB)
has
announced
that
it
will
start
monthly
Treasury
bill
(T-‐bill)
auctions
in
June.
The
QCB
plans
to
issue
T-‐bills,
with
three-‐month
maturities,
worth
QAR2
billion
(USD550
million)
each
in
June
and
July.
The
QCB
could
also
consider
different
maturities
in
future
auctions.
A
Deepening
in
Monetary
Tools
and
More
Proactive
Management:
We
see
the
monthly
T-‐bill
auctions
as
an
important
step
towards
deepening
monetary
policy
and
liquidity
management
tools.
We
see
a
need
for
Qatar
to
set
up
the
framework
for
regular
monetary
management,
along
with
developing
a
more
holistic
policy
approach.
In
the
past,
Qatar
tended
to
have
more
one-‐off
and
larger
issues
to
absorb
excess
banking
sector
liquidity.
This
announcement
follows
the
50
bps
benchmark
(lending,
deposit
and
repo)
rate
cut
and
new
restrictive
retail
lending
regulations
introduced
in
April,
which
we
believe
suggests
that
the
QCB
is
taking
a
more
proactive
and
integrated
monetary
stance.
The
benchmark
overnight
deposit
rate
of
1%
is
now
more
in
line
with
other
GCC
countries
and
has
reduced
the
previously
large
deposit
rate
differential,
leading
to
a
decline
in
foreign
deposits
in
4M2011.
This
has
likely
supported
the
shift
to
monthly
T-‐bill
auctions.
Previously,
the
QCB’s
stance
was
to
not
pay
interest
on
banks’
deposits
at
the
QCB
above
the
reserve
requirement
to
limit
speculative
deposits.
Focus
to
Remain
on
Absorbing
Excess
Liquidity:
We
believe
that
the
focus
in
the
short
term
will
remain
on
absorbing
excess
liquidity
from
the
banking
sector.
Liquidity
in
the
banking
system
increased
after
the
Qatar
Investment
Authority
(QIA)
injected
capital
into
a
number
of
DSM-‐listed
banks
in
January
2011,
increasing
their
share
capital
by
10%.
Furthermore,
domestic
deposit
growth
in
Qatar’s
banking
sector
has
been
well
above
loan
growth
since
the
beginning
of
the
year.
We,
however,
believe
that
the
QCB
and
the
government
will
ensure
that
there
is
ample
liquidity
in
the
banking
system
for
economic
needs.
Qatar’s
monetary
policy
is
also
focused
on
supporting
non-‐speculative
private
sector
credit
growth.
Slightly
Positive
for
Banks’
Net
Interest
Margins:
Qatari
banks’
asset
yields
have
seen
downward
pressure
this
year,
owing
to
pricing
competition
in
lending
and
also
to
excess
liquidity
in
the
system.
Liquidity
yields
have
been
negatively
impacted
by
the
QCB’s
decision
earlier
in
the
year
to
cut
to
0%
the
rate
it
pays
on
deposits
from
banks
above
the
reserve
requirement,
with
the
move
seen
as
a
way
to
reduce
foreign
speculative
deposits.
More
frequent
T-‐bill
auctions
will
have,
in
our
view,
an
overall
slightly
positive
impact
on
net
interest
margins,
as
banks
will
be
able
to
earn
higher
asset
yields
on
their
excess
liquidity.
The
magnitude
of
the
impact
will
be
dependent
on
the
yields
offered
by
the
QCB.
(Monica
Malik,
Elena
Sanchez-‐Cabezudo)
Bank
Muscat
-
Valuation
Undemanding,
but
Lacking
Catalyst;
Maintain
Neutral
Rating
-
Flash
Note
-
18
May
2011
No
Near-‐Term
Catalyst;
Maintain
Neutral
Rating
and
Fair
Value:
Bank
Muscat’s
valuation
remains
undemanding,
at
an
estimated
2011
P/BV
of
1.3x;
however,
we
believe
that
the
lack
of
a
positive
catalyst
is
likely
to
keep
the
stock
price
range-‐bound
in
the
near
term.
We
expect
loan
growth
recovery
to
be
sluggish
in
2011,
while
high
operating
costs
and
a
negative
contribution
from
BMI
Bank
(a
49%-‐owned
associate
of
Bank
Muscat)
are
likely
to
offset
an
improvement
in
net
interest
spreads,
in
our
view.
We
maintain
our
Neutral
rating
on
the
stock,
as
our
unchanged
fair
value
(FV)
of
OMR0.810/share
implies
only
12%
upside
potential.
Earnings
and
Valuation
Risks
from
BMI
Manageable:
Standard
&
Poors’
downgraded
the
ratings
outlook
to
negative
on
BMI
Bank.
The
rating
agency
cited
credit
risk,
rising
funding
costs,
and
a
contracting
asset
base
as
key
risks
to
earnings.
BMI
posted
a
net
loss
of
BHD26
million
in
2010
(See
Financial
Statements
on
Page
2)
and
our
current
forecasts
for
Bank
Muscat
incorporate
a
net
loss
of
BHD20
million
at
BMI
in
2011.
Bank
Muscat’s
investment
in
BMI
amounts
to
OMR42
million
(5%
of
Bank
Muscat’s
book
value).
Even
if
we
completely
write
off
Bank
Muscat’s
investment
in
BMI,
valuations
remain
undemanding,
at
an
estimated
2011
P/BV
of
1.4x.
1Q2011
Net
Interest
Spreads
Surge
on
Lower
Funding
Costs…:
Bank
Muscat’s
net
interest
spreads
widened
by
47
bps
in
1Q2011
to
3.56%,
supported
by
a
55
bps
decline
in
funding
costs.
A
steady
decline
in
interest
rates
coupled
with
the
maturity
of
some
relatively
high-‐cost
deposits
in
1Q2011
led
to
this
sharp
fall
in
funding
costs.
We
believe
that
there
is
sufficient
liquidity
in
the
market
to
enable
the
bank
to
sustain
this
improvement
in
net
interest
spreads
in
the
near
term.
…But
Asset
Quality
Deterioration
Surprises:
Bank
Muscat’s
NPL
ratio
rose
by
52
bps
Q-‐o-‐Q
to
4.72%
in
1Q2011,
which
was
a
surprise,
as
we
were
expecting
asset
quality
trends
to
show
a
steady
improvement
in
2011.
The
hike
in
NPLs
is
likely
to
have
been
driven
by
domestic
corporate
clients,
while
credit
indicators
of
international
operations
have
remained
stable.
The
NPL
coverage
dropped
to
84.5%
in
1Q2011.
However,
we
expect
this
to
steadily
build
up
over
the
year
to
close
to
100%.
(Murad
Ansari,
Gigi
Tharian
Varghese)
[Note
–
EFG
Hermes
is
not
responsible
for
the
accuracy
of
news
items
taken
from
other
media.]
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Our
investment
recommendations
take
into
account
both
risk
and
expected
return.
We
base
our
fair
value
estimate
on
a
fundamental
analysis
of
the
company’s
future
prospects,
after
having
taken
perceived
risk
into
consideration.
We
have
conducted
extensive
research
to
arrive
at
our
investment
recommendations
and
fair
value
estimates
for
the
company
or
companies
mentioned
in
this
report.
Although
the
information
in
this
report
has
been
obtained
from
sources
that
EFG
Hermes
believes
to
be
reliable,
we
do
not
guarantee
its
accuracy,
and
such
information
may
be
condensed
or
incomplete.
Readers
should
understand
that
financial
projections,
fair
value
estimates
and
statements
regarding
future
prospects
may
not
be
realized.
All
opinions
and
estimates
included
in
this
report
constitute
our
judgment
as
of
this
date
and
are
subject
to
change
without
notice.
This
research
report
is
prepared
for
general
circulation
and
is
intended
for
general
information
purposes
only.
It
is
not
intended
as
an
offer
or
solicitation
with
respect
to
the
purchase
or
sale
of
any
security.
It
is
not
tailored
to
the
specific
investment
objectives,
financial
situation
or
needs
of
any
specific
person
that
may
receive
this
report.
We
strongly
advise
potential
investors
to
seek
financial
guidance
when
determining
whether
an
investment
is
appropriate
to
their
needs.
No
part
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