Focus Economics Consensus Forecast Asia - September 2010

FOCUSECONOMICS
CONSENSUS FORECAST
Asia Contents
Summary .................................... 3
Calendar .................................. 1 3
China ........................................ 1 4
Hong Kong ............................... 2 5
India .......................................... 3 4
Indonesia ................................. 4 4
Korea ........................................ 5 3
Malaysia .................................. 6 3
Philippines ............................... 7 2
Singapore ................................ 8 1
Taiwan ..................................... 9 0
Thailand ................................... 9 9
Vietnam ................................. 109
Notes ....................................... 112
Order Form ............................. 113
September 2010
Publication date: 31 August 2010
Information available: up to and including 30 August 2010
Forecasts collected: 24 - 27 August 2010
Next edition: 28 September 2010
Arne Pohlman Armando Ciccarelli Marcos Felipe Casarin

Chief Economist Economist Economist
Ángel Talavera Gerardo Morán Joan Enric Domene

Senior Economist Economist Economist
Keith Catlin Ricardo Aceves

Senior Economist Economist
© FocusEconomics 2010 Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain

ISSN 2013-4940 Phone: +34 932 651 040
Fax: +34 932 650 804
info@focus-economics.com
Economic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists www.focus-economics.com
FOCUSECONOMICS Summary September 2010
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia
Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World 4.0 1.8 -1.9 3.8 3.6 3.2 4.6 0.9 2.6 2.6
United States 1.9 0.0 -2.6 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.8 -0.4 1.6 1.5
Euro area 2.8 0.6 -4.1 1.2 1.4 2.1 3.3 0.3 1.5 1.6
Asia 7.0 4.0 2.1 6.6 5.9 2.6 4.6 0.0 2.4 2.5
Japan 2.4 -1.2 -5.2 3.1 1.6 0.1 1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.2
Asia (ex Japan) 9.7 7.0 6.1 8.7 7.6 4.1 6.4 0.8 4.0 3.6
China 13.0 9.6 9.1 10.0 8.9 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.2 3.1
India 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 4.7 8.4 3.8 8.1 5.4
Asean 6.6 4.3 1.4 7.2 5.5 3.9 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5
Indonesia 6.3 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.0 9.8 5.0 4.8 5.9
Malaysia 6.3 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.3 2.0 5.4 0.6 2.0 2.6
Philippines 7.1 3.7 1.1 5.6 4.8 2.8 9.3 3.2 4.4 4.2
Thailand 4.9 2.5 -2.2 6.8 4.4 2.2 5.4 -0.9 3.4 3.1
Vietnam 8.5 6.2 5.3 6.5 7.0 8.3 23.0 6.9 9.9 8.7
NIEs 5.8 1.9 -0.9 7.0 4.4 2.3 4.6 1.4 2.5 2.7
Hong Kong 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.6 4.5 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0
Korea 5.1 2.3 0.2 5.8 4.3 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.1
Singapore 8.5 1.8 -1.3 12.8 5.2 2.1 6.5 0.6 2.7 2.6
Taiwan 6.0 0.7 -1.9 7.3 4.3 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.3 1.6
Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual average variation in %
12 12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011

8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-8 -4
World United Euro area Japan Asia (ex China India World United Euro area Japan Asia (ex China India
States Japan) States Japan)
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World -0.7 -2.3 -7.0 -6.4 -5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -1.1 -3.2 -10.0 -9.3 -7.8 -5.2 -4.9 -3.0 -3.3 -3.5
Euro area -0.6 -2.0 -6.3 -6.5 -5.4 0.2 -1.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.0
Asia -0.5 -2.7 -5.4 -4.9 -4.2 6.2 5.0 4.3 3.6 3.3
Japan -2.5 -5.8 -9.9 -9.2 -8.8 4.8 3.2 2.8 3.7 3.9
Asia (ex Japan) 0.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 6.9 5.9 5.1 3.7 3.1
China 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.7 4.1
India -2.6 -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -1.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.6 -2.4
Asean 0.3 -0.4 -3.3 -3.0 -2.3 8.3 5.1 6.9 5.5 4.8
Indonesia -1.2 0.0 -1.6 -1.7 -1.3 2.6 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.8
Malaysia -3.2 -4.8 -7.0 -5.6 -4.8 15.7 17.5 16.7 14.0 12.7
Philippines -0.2 -0.9 -3.9 -3.7 -3.1 4.4 2.2 5.3 4.2 3.8
Thailand -1.7 -1.1 -4.4 -3.6 -3.3 6.4 0.6 7.7 4.4 3.4
Vietnam -1.8 -2.1 -4.5 -6.1 -4.8 -9.8 -9.3 -7.8 -7.8 -6.4
NIEs 3.9 1.1 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 6.1 4.9 8.5 5.9 5.2
Hong Kong 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.5 -0.1 12.3 13.6 8.7 8.6 9.0
Korea 3.5 1.2 -1.7 -0.4 0.3 0.6 -0.6 5.1 1.8 1.2
Singapore 12.1 5.7 -2.0 -1.1 0.5 27.6 19.2 19.1 17.7 16.2
Taiwan -0.4 -0.9 -4.0 -2.7 -2.2 8.3 6.6 11.0 8.0 7.2
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 2

Summary
Regional outlook improves
• Asia continues to rebound strongly, as countries continue to report
better-than-expected growth figures in the second quarter. As a result
of continued strong growth, regional behemoth, China, surpassed
Japan to become the world’s second largest economy in the second
quarter.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages • Consensus Forecast panellists have lifted their estimate for ex-Japan
Asian growth this year from the 8.6% expected last month to the
2000-04 2005-015 2010-14
GDP growth (%) 6.8 7.9 7.8 current 8.7% forecast. In 2011, panellists see the regional economy
Inflation (%) 2.3 3.5 3.5 growing 7.6%.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -1.0 -1.7
Current Account (% of GDP) 3.3 5.8 3.0 • Amid persistent upward price pressures, Consensus Forecast
Note: Data refer to GDP-weighted Asian (ex Japan) average based on panellists have left their inflation estimates for this year unchanged
market exchange rates. For details see note at end of publication.
at 4.0%. In 2011, regional inflation will moderate and average 3.6%.
Keith Catlin ASIA | Regional outlook improves a notch

Senior Economist The outlook for the Asian economies improved over last month, as Consensus
Forecast panellists lifted their forecast for ex-Japan Asia output growth in 2010
from the 8.6% expected last month to the current 8.7% projection. The
improvement represents the fourteenth consecutive monthly upgrade and marks
a notable improvement compared to the 6.1% expansion recorded in 2009.
Quarterly forecasts show that growth is estimated to have peaked at 10.6%
year-on-year expansion in the first quarter, as many economies experienced a
strong rebound from last year’s first quarter slump. Throughout the remainder
Change in 2010 GDP Growth Forecast
of the year, growth will moderate as the favourable base effect progressively
Thailand fades away, with year-on-year growth decelerating to 9.5% in the second quarter
Singapore
Taiwan
and averaging 7.7% in the second half of the year.
Asean
NIEs
Malaysia
This month, Consensus Forecast panellists lifted their GDP growth forecast for
Hong Kong nine of the eleven economies surveyed (Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea,
Philippines
Korea
Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand), left the forecast for
Indonesia one country unchanged (Vietnam) and cut the forecast for another country
Asia (ex Japan)
India
(China).
Vietnam
China
CHINA | Growth continues to slow
-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9
Despite having surpassed Japan as the world’s second largest economy in the
Note: Change between September and August 2010 in percentage points.
Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
second quarter, recent data confirm the notion of an overall slowdown in the
Chinese economy. The moderation is the result of concerted government policies
aimed at slowing the rapid expansion of the economy, as policy makers
implemented a series of measures such as shutting down old facilities in specific
industries as well as policies to cool the housing market. As a result of the
continued slowdown as well as the newly implemented policies, China’s growth

forecast was cut for the second consecutive month from the 10.1% expected
last month to 10.0% this month.
Thailand | Growth forecasts improve after strong second quarter result

Thailand experienced the strongest adjustment to this year’s growth forecast.
Consensus Forecast panellists raised their projection for GDP growth by 0.8
percentage points over last month, lifting the Consensus Forecast to 6.8%. In
the second quarter, the Thai economy expanded a faster-than-expected 9.1%
annually. The strong result was buttressed by robust external demand that
helped to compensate for a weaker domestic sector, which had been adversely
affected by political unrest in April and May. As a result, the government raised
its official forecast for 2010 GDP growth from 3.5% – 4.5% to 6.5% - 7.5%.
KOREA | Outlook improves further

In Korea, Consensus Forecast panellist raised their projections for output growth
this year by 0.1 percentage points over last month and now expect GDP to
expand 5.8% in 2010. The improvement continued to reflect the country’s strong
growth momentum, as both the domestic and external sectors remain robust.
Industrial production continues to expand at a double-digit pace and exports
have rebounded to above their pre-crisis peak.
INDIA | Growth prospects improves despite amid moderating industrial

production
Consensus Forecast panellists have raised their projection for the region’s
second largest economy, by a notch this month, from the 8.2% expansion
expected in August to 8.3%. Although the June industrial sector reading
undershot expectations, exports continue to surge ahead. However, owing to
rising inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to lift the
repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on 27 July. The bank also
Change in 2010 Inflation Forecast
announced that it would change the periodicity of its monetary policy meetings.
India
The Bank will now hold policy meetings every six weeks, instead of the previous
Indonesia
Asean three-month interval. The current tighter monetary policy may dent growth
Thailand
somewhat in the coming months.
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
Vietnam
Singapore INFLATION | Inflation expectations unchanged
Malaysia
NIEs
After raising their inflation estimate in August, Consensus Forecast panellists
Hong Kong left their forecasts unchanged this month. Panellists currently estimate 2010
Korea
China
inflation for ex-Japan Asia to average 4.0% this month, which is well above the
Philippines 0.8% inflation recorded in 2009.
-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Note: Change between September and August 2010 in percentage points. Inflationary pressures expected to remain moderate in China but strong
Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
in India
Compared to last month, Consensus Forecast panellists cut their 2010 inflation
forecast for three of the eleven economies surveyed (China, Hong Kong and
Philippines). The panel raised its estimate for three countries (India, Indonesia
and Thailand) and maintained their projections for the remaining five economies
(Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam). India experienced the
strongest upward revision, as panellists lifted their forecast by 0.3 percentage
points from 7.8% last month to 8.1% this month. Wholesale price inflation in
India moderated but still remained in double-digit territory in July. Owing to the
mounting price pressures driven by strong domestic demand growth, the RBI
has embarked on a policy-tightening course. Meanwhile, Consensus Forecast
panellists cut their inflation estimate for China from 3.3% to 3.2%. If attained,
the level would be only slightly above the 3.0% inflation target set by Primer
Wen Jiabao for this year.

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

China 9.6 9.1 10.0 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1
China
Hong Kong 2.2 -2.8 5.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2
Asia (ex Japan)
India 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.3
India
Indonesia 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5
Korea 2.3 0.2 5.8 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.1 Taiwan
Malaysia 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.4 Asean

Philippines 3.7 1.1 5.6 4.8 5.2 4.8 4.5 Malaysia
Singapore 1.8 -1.3 12.8 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.9 NIEs
Taiwan 0.7 -1.9 7.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.8 Thailand
Thailand 2.5 -2.2 6.8 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.2 Vietnam
Vietnam 6.2 5.3 6.5 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.9
Indonesia
Korea
Asia (ex Japan) 7.0 6.1 8.7 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.9
Hong Kong
Asean 4.3 1.4 7.2 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.7
NIEs 1.9 -0.9 7.0 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.4 Philippines
4 6 8 10 12 14
12
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. All
8 data for India refer to fiscal year ending in March.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
-4
Asia (ex China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
Japan)
GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

China 3,406 3,664 4,155 4,813 5,525 6,265 7,171
Hong Kong
Hong Kong 30,694 29,991 31,982 33,886 35,766 37,844 40,120
NIEs
India 1,049 1,087 1,339 1,570 1,788 2,004 2,242
Korea
Indonesia 2,127 2,320 2,768 3,123 3,435 3,758 4,138
Korea 19,162 17,078 21,086 24,124 25,953 27,243 28,637 Taiwan
Malaysia 7,992 6,763 7,589 8,442 9,110 9,899 10,977 Malaysia

Philippines 1,847 1,747 1,951 2,156 2,298 2,419 2,599 Thailand
Singapore 38,904 35,514 40,709 44,350 46,778 49,189 52,096 China
Taiwan 16,630 16,775 18,366 20,088 21,366 22,371 23,860 Asia (ex Japan)
Thailand 4,135 3,971 4,326 4,756 5,102 5,437 5,824 Asean
Vietnam 1,050 1,056 1,157 1,266 1,442 1,665 1,776
Indonesia
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan) 2,835 2,912 3,359 3,844 4,320 4,798 5,368
India
Asean 2,831 2,785 3,184 3,537 3,837 4,151 4,510
NIEs 20,576 19,172 22,427 25,059 26,790 28,152 29,754 Vietnam
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
30,000
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: GDP per capita in current USD.
22,500 Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
15,000
7,500
0
Japan)

Private Consumption, annual variation in % Private Consumption Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

China 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.4 9.4
Asia (ex Japan)
Hong Kong 2.4 -0.4 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.0
Vietnam
India 6.8 4.3 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.2
India
Indonesia 5.3 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.8
Korea 1.3 0.2 4.4 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.8 Malaysia
Malaysia 8.5 0.8 5.4 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.3 Singapore

Philippines 4.7 4.1 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.4 Indonesia
Singapore 2.7 0.4 5.3 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.6 Hong Kong
Taiwan -0.6 1.5 2.5 2.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 Asean
Thailand 2.7 -1.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.7 4.3 Philippines
Vietnam 9.2 4.8 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.6 6.7
Korea
NIEs
Asia (ex Japan) 6.7 6.2 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.7 7.7
Thailand
Asean 5.1 2.6 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.4
NIEs 1.2 0.5 4.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.7 Taiwan
0 3 6 9 12
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources
8 Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Data
for China are based on FocusEconomics estimates.
6
0
Japan)
Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

China 26.1 30.5 25.0 21.7 23.4 20.7 21.8
Asia (ex Japan)
Hong Kong 0.8 -1.8 9.1 7.5 5.9 4.9 5.2
Taiwan
India 4.0 7.2 11.8 12.2 13.2 12.9 12.5
India
Indonesia 11.9 3.3 8.7 9.7 9.0 9.2 9.7
Korea -1.9 -0.2 6.3 4.2 4.7 4.3 4.0 Singapore
Malaysia 0.8 -5.5 6.6 5.8 5.7 6.5 6.4 Hong Kong
Philippines 2.9 -3.5 6.7 4.6 5.9 6.2 5.9 NIEs
Singapore 13.6 -3.3 11.3 8.0 6.4 6.6 6.9 Indonesia
Taiwan -11.2 -11.8 14.4 5.7 3.9 3.7 3.9 Thailand
Thailand 1.2 -9.0 8.5 6.5 8.8 8.8 7.8 Asean
Vietnam 3.8 5.5 6.8 6.8 7.7 7.9 8.0
Vietnam
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan) 14.6 16.8 17.8 15.5 16.8 15.4 16.1
Malaysia
Asean 6.8 -1.6 8.4 7.6 7.7 8.0 8.1
NIEs -2.0 -3.5 9.0 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 Korea
0 8 16 24 32
40
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
30 Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Data
for China refer to nominal urban investment in fixed assets.
20
10
-10
Japan)

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Philippines

China 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2
Indonesia
Hong Kong 4.1 4.9 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8
India - - - - - - - Taiwan
Indonesia 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.0 Asean

Korea 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 Vietnam
Malaysia 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 Hong Kong
Philippines 6.8 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.7 7.7
China
Singapore 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2
Taiwan 5.0 5.7 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.5 NIEs
Thailand 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 Asia (ex Japan)
Vietnam 4.7 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.3 Malaysia
Korea
Asia (ex Japan) 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5
Singapore
Asean 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.9
NIEs 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.0 Thailand
0 2 4 6 8
10
Note: End-of-year unemployment rate. China end-of-year urban
8 unemployment. India has no official unemployment statistics.
Sources: National statistical institutes.
2
Asia (ex China NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
Japan)
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Korea

China -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.4 -1.5 -0.9
Hong Kong
Hong Kong 0.1 0.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 1.4 1.8
NIEs
India -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -4.7 -3.7 -3.3
Singapore
Indonesia 0.0 -1.6 -1.7 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9
Korea 1.2 -1.7 -0.4 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.5 Indonesia
Malaysia -4.8 -7.0 -5.6 -4.8 -4.1 -3.6 -3.4 China

Philippines -0.9 -3.9 -3.7 -3.1 -2.5 -2.4 -2.5 Taiwan
Singapore 5.7 -2.0 -1.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 Asia (ex Japan)
Taiwan -0.9 -4.0 -2.7 -2.2 -2.2 -2.0 -1.9 Asean
Thailand -1.1 -4.4 -3.6 -3.3 -3.6 -2.1 -2.8 Thailand
Vietnam -2.1 -4.5 -6.1 -4.8 -2.1 -1.8 -2.2
Philippines
India
Asia (ex Japan) -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2
Malaysia
Asean -0.4 -3.3 -3.0 -2.3 -1.9 -1.5 -1.6
NIEs 1.1 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.8 Vietnam
-8 -6 -4 -2 0
2
Notes and sources
0 Note: Fiscal balance in % of GDP.

Sources: National statistical institutes, finance ministries and
Asian Development Bank (ADB) for China.
-2
-4
-6
2008 2009 2010 2011
-8
Japan)

Inflation, annual average variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

China 5.9 -0.7 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2
India
Hong Kong 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.1
Indonesia
India 8.4 3.8 8.1 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.3
Philippines
Indonesia 9.8 5.0 4.8 5.9 6.0 5.6 5.2
Korea 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.2 Asean
Malaysia 5.4 0.6 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 Asia (ex Japan)
Philippines 9.3 3.2 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.5 Thailand
Singapore 6.5 0.6 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.6 China
Taiwan 3.5 -0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 Korea
Thailand 5.4 -0.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.5 Singapore
Vietnam 23.0 6.9 9.9 8.7 7.3 6.7 6.0
Hong Kong
NIEs
Asia (ex Japan) 6.4 0.8 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
Malaysia
Asean 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.0
NIEs 4.6 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 Taiwan
0 3 6 9 12
12
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: Annual average variation of consumer price index in %.
8 Data for India refer to wholesale price index (WPI).
-4
Japan)
Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

China 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.0 7.5
Indonesia
Hong Kong 1.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.0
India
India 5.0 5.0 6.3 7.2 6.6 6.8 7.1
China
Indonesia 9.3 6.5 6.9 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.5
Korea 3.3 2.0 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 Asia (ex Japan)
Malaysia 3.3 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.8 Asean

Philippines 6.1 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.0 5.2 4.8 Philippines
Singapore 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.6 Malaysia
Taiwan 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 Korea
Thailand 2.8 1.3 2.0 2.6 3.4 3.8 4.0 Thailand
Vietnam 8.5 8.0 9.4 9.5 10.3 9.3 9.2
NIEs
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan) 4.8 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.6
Singapore
Asean 5.6 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.6
NIEs 2.4 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.0 Hong Kong
0 3 6 9 12
10
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
8 Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.
China: 12-month lending rate.
Hong Kong: 91-day Hong Kong interbank offered rate
(HIBOR).
6
India: RBI repurchase rate.
Indonesia: Overnight BI rate.
Korea: Overnight call rate.
4
Malaysia: Overnight policy rate.
Philippines: 91-day Treasury bill rate.
Singapore: 3-month Singapore interbank rate (SIBOR).
2 Taiwan: CB discount rate.
Thailand: 1-day repurchase rate.
Vietnam: Base rate.
0 Sources: National central banks.
Japan)

Nominal Depreciation vs. USD, in % Depreciation versus USD, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

China -6.9 -0.1 -1.4 -3.6 -3.7 -2.7 -2.9
Hong Kong
Hong Kong -0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
China
India 21.6 -12.9 -6.2 -3.3 -3.9 -1.6 -0.9
Taiwan
Indonesia 15.1 -17.0 -11.2 -2.8 0.4 1.2 -0.3
Korea 25.7 -8.2 -5.4 -4.1 -3.5 -1.9 -0.8 Singapore
Malaysia 4.5 -1.2 -4.4 -5.2 -1.2 -1.3 -2.1 Philippines

Philippines 12.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.3 -0.1 1.9 -0.7 Asia (ex Japan)
Singapore -0.1 -2.6 -2.8 -2.5 -0.1 0.3 -1.2 NIEs
Taiwan 1.3 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.3 -0.2 -1.6 Malaysia
Thailand 3.4 -4.7 -5.0 -3.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.8 Thailand
Vietnam 6.1 8.7 6.6 3.5 -0.9 -2.1 4.5
Korea
Asean
Asia (ex Japan) 3.6 -3.9 -3.2 -3.3 -3.0 -1.9 -2.0
India
Asean 8.4 -7.5 -6.1 -2.9 -0.1 0.4 -0.5
NIEs 14.1 -5.1 -3.7 -2.9 -2.2 -1.1 -0.9 Indonesia
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
30
20 Note: Nominal depreciation of national currencies versus
USD in %. Positive number means currency is losing value
against USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative
10 information.
China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
0
-10
-20
Japan)
Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

China 9.4 6.0 4.7 4.1 4.3 4.1 3.8
Malaysia
Hong Kong 13.6 8.7 8.6 9.0 8.0 8.4 7.6
Hong Kong
India -2.5 -2.4 -2.6 -2.4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.4
Taiwan
Indonesia 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0
Korea -0.6 5.1 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 NIEs
Malaysia 17.5 16.7 14.0 12.7 11.6 10.6 9.9 Asean

Philippines 2.2 5.3 4.2 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.8 China
Singapore 19.2 19.1 17.7 16.2 14.1 13.3 13.5 Thailand
Taiwan 6.6 11.0 8.0 7.2 6.9 7.4 7.4 Philippines
Thailand 0.6 7.7 4.4 3.4 2.0 2.2 2.0 Asia (ex Japan)
Vietnam -9.3 -7.8 -7.8 -6.4 -6.1 -5.2 -4.8
Korea
Indonesia
Asia (ex Japan) 5.9 5.1 3.7 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.8
India
Asean 5.1 6.9 5.5 4.8 3.8 3.5 3.2
NIEs 4.9 8.5 5.9 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.4 Vietnam
-16 -8 0 8 16 24
12
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP.
8 Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
-4
Japan)

Exports, annual variation in % Exports Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

China 17.4 -15.9 23.5 14.1 12.2 11.4 10.3
Singapore
Hong Kong 5.6 -11.9 12.9 10.9 5.3 5.9 6.0
Korea
India 13.7 -7.8 19.9 18.6 9.9 8.3 9.6
Asia (ex Japan)
Indonesia 18.3 -14.4 18.5 12.2 13.4 12.3 9.2
Korea 14.2 -13.7 22.3 10.9 9.0 9.4 11.4 Asean
Malaysia 13.1 -21.1 18.7 11.2 10.7 8.4 8.2 Vietnam

Philippines -2.2 -22.3 20.0 8.7 9.3 8.4 3.5 Thailand
Singapore 12.7 -20.2 23.5 11.1 9.8 9.7 11.2 Philippines
Taiwan 3.4 -20.2 18.6 9.9 8.2 5.6 5.6 India
Thailand 16.8 -13.9 20.1 9.1 11.7 12.3 9.0 NIEs
Vietnam 29.1 -9.7 20.5 17.1 11.4 14.0 15.8
Malaysia
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan) 13.7 -15.7 21.4 12.6 10.4 9.9 9.6
Indonesia
Asean 14.4 -17.8 21.2 11.2 10.9 10.6 9.9
NIEs 9.4 -16.0 19.7 10.8 8.1 7.9 9.0 Hong Kong
10 13 16 19 22 25
30
Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports
China: Customs Department.
-15
2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
Japan)
Imports, annual variation in % Imports Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

China 18.5 -11.3 34.3 16.9 10.4 13.1 11.2
Korea
Hong Kong 6.2 -10.2 16.3 11.3 4.1 4.5 4.8
Thailand
India 21.2 -10.2 24.1 18.4 7.1 7.3 9.2
Asia (ex Japan)
Indonesia 36.9 -27.7 27.0 16.0 15.7 16.6 11.1
Korea 21.8 -25.7 33.7 13.1 10.0 10.0 11.2 Indonesia
Malaysia 6.5 -21.0 24.7 12.5 15.3 10.7 9.6 Taiwan

Philippines 6.2 -24.1 19.1 9.7 11.6 11.8 5.4 Malaysia
Singapore 21.3 -23.1 22.8 11.8 10.0 10.0 10.6 NIEs
Taiwan 9.4 -27.0 26.5 11.8 8.4 5.6 6.2 India
Thailand 26.4 -24.9 29.5 11.1 11.7 12.1 8.5 Asean
Vietnam 28.6 -14.7 20.4 10.3 11.2 14.6 15.0
Singapore
Vietnam
Asia (ex Japan) 17.5 -17.1 27.3 14.5 9.7 10.6 9.9
Philippines
Asean 20.7 -23.0 24.1 12.1 12.2 12.0 10.2
NIEs 14.7 -20.9 24.3 12.0 8.0 7.7 8.5 Hong Kong
15 20 25 30 35
50
2008 2009 2010 2011
Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports.
China: Customs Department.
-25
-50
Japan)

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

China 20.6 28.7 24.3 22.8 21.8 20.5 19.2
Taiwan
Hong Kong 5.6 8.8 7.9 8.1 8.7 8.5 8.7
Asia (ex Japan)
India 9.9 11.9 10.4 9.6 9.7 9.6 8.8
Philippines
Indonesia 5.3 9.4 8.4 7.9 7.3 6.5 6.5
Korea 5.7 10.2 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.0 6.6 Thailand
Malaysia 7.5 9.9 8.6 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.6 India

Philippines 7.4 11.1 10.9 11.1 10.9 10.0 9.8 NIEs
Singapore 6.6 9.2 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.6 6.6 Malaysia
Taiwan 14.8 24.2 20.7 19.9 19.9 20.3 20.1 Asean
Thailand 7.6 12.6 10.8 10.6 9.6 8.9 8.3 Singapore
Vietnam 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.2
Indonesia
Korea
Asia (ex Japan) 11.9 17.5 15.2 14.6 14.1 13.5 12.8
Hong Kong
Asean 6.5 9.5 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.4 6.8
NIEs 7.4 11.8 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.3 Vietnam
0 8 16 24 32
32
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: International reserves as months of imports.
24 Sources: Central banks.
16
0
Japan)
External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Korea
China 8.3 8.0 6.9 6.1 6.0 5.5 5.1
Hong Kong 308 319 304 255 212 174 139 Philippines
India 18.5 18.7 16.4 15.3 14.0 13.4 12.4
Vietnam
Indonesia 31.9 32.2 25.9 22.8 21.1 19.9 18.3
Korea 40.6 48.3 39.9 36.5 34.2 32.5 30.6 Malaysia
Malaysia 30.8 35.7 28.4 25.2 24.2 22.1 20.5
Philippines 32.3 33.1 31.3 28.4 28.4 26.5 24.4 Indonesia
Singapore 216 235 217 217 217 216 209 Asia (ex Japan)
Taiwan 23.6 21.1 22.5 21.8 20.9 20.4 19.9
Thailand 24.0 26.6 23.5 21.5 21.2 20.4 19.7 Thailand
Vietnam 31.4 26.7 28.8 28.3 27.0 24.9 24.5
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan) 28.8 28.7 25.5 22.5 20.3 18.3 16.3 India
Asean 54.6 58.1 51.4 48.5 47.0 44.8 42.3
China
NIEs 89.6 99.1 89.1 80.6 73.3 67.2 61.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
125
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
100 Note: External debt as % of GDP.
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and
finance ministries.
75
50
25
0
Japan)

Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2008 - Q4 2010
Gross domestic product 2008 2009 2010

annual var. in % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
China 11.3 10.7 9.9 7.5 6.5 8.2 9.5 11.1 11.9 10.3 9.4 8.8
Hong Kong 8.6 5.6 2.6 -1.2 -7.7 -3.8 -2.4 2.5 8.0 6.5 4.7 3.3
India 8.6 7.8 7.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 8.6 6.5 8.6 8.6 7.9 8.7
Indonesia 6.2 6.4 6.4 5.3 4.5 4.1 4.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.0 6.0
Korea 5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3 -4.3 -2.2 1.0 6.0 8.1 7.2 4.2 4.3
Malaysia 7.6 6.5 4.9 0.1 -6.2 -3.9 -1.2 4.4 10.1 8.9 5.7 4.8
Philippines 3.9 3.7 4.6 2.8 0.5 1.2 0.2 2.1 7.8 7.9 5.4 5.0
Singapore 7.4 2.7 0.0 -2.5 -8.9 -1.7 1.8 3.8 16.9 18.8 9.4 10.7
Taiwan 6.9 5.4 -0.8 -7.1 -9.1 -6.9 -1.0 9.1 13.7 12.5 5.6 2.4
Thailand 6.4 5.2 2.9 -4.2 -7.1 -4.9 -2.7 5.9 12.0 9.1 5.3 3.0
Vietnam 7.5 6.7 6.5 5.6 3.1 4.5 6.0 6.9 5.8 6.2 7.0 7.0
Asia (ex Japan) 9.2 8.3 7.3 4.2 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.7 10.6 9.5 7.9 7.5
Asean 6.4 5.4 4.5 1.4 -1.3 0.3 1.5 4.9 9.1 8.9 6.3 5.9
NIEs 6.4 4.6 1.9 -3.8 -6.4 -3.5 0.2 6.1 10.4 9.7 5.2 4.5
GDP, year-on-year variation in % Consumer Prices, year-on-year variation in %
15 15
Asia (ex Japan) China
India Korea
10 10
5 5
0 0
Asia (ex Japan) China
India Korea
-5 -5
Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10
Yoy change of quarterly 2008 2009 2010

avg. CPI % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
China 8.0 7.8 5.3 2.5 -0.6 -1.5 -1.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 3.4
Hong Kong 4.6 5.7 4.6 2.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.4 2.4
India 5.8 9.6 12.5 8.6 3.2 0.6 -0.1 5.0 10.2 11.0 9.1 8.0
Indones ia 7.6 10.7 13.5 12.6 9.2 5.7 2.8 2.6 3.7 4.4 5.4 5.6
Korea 3.0 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.2 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.9 3.2
Malaysia 2.6 4.9 8.4 5.9 3.7 1.3 -2.3 -0.2 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.3
Philippines 5.5 9.7 12.2 9.7 6.9 3.2 0.3 2.9 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.3
Singapore 6.6 7.5 6.6 5.4 2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 0.2 0.9 3.6 3.1
Taiwan 3.6 4.2 4.5 1.9 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 -1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3
Thailand 5.1 7.5 7.3 2.2 -0.3 -2.8 -2.2 1.9 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.4
Vietnam 11.1 15.5 20.2 23.0 22.4 17.4 11.0 6.9 5.2 5.9 9.1 9.1
As ia (ex Japan) 6.5 7.4 6.8 4.4 1.6 0.1 -0.3 1.6 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.1
As ean 6.2 9.0 10.9 9.0 6.4 3.2 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.4 4.5 4.5
NIEs 3.7 4.4 4.7 3.8 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.7

FOCUSECONOMICS September 2010
Economic Release Calendar
Date Country Event

1 September Indonesia August C onsumer Prices
Korea August C onsumer Prices
2 September India July Merchandise Trade
Malaysia July Merchandise Trade
Thailand August C onsumer Prices
6 September Taiwan August C onsumer Prices
Taiwan August Producer Prices
7 September Philippines August C onsumer Prices
Taiwan August Merchandise Trade
9 September Malaysia July Industrial Production
10 September India July Industrial Production
Philippines July Merchandise Trade
11 September Indonesia July Industrial Production
13 September C hina August C onsumer Prices
C hina August Fixed Asset Investment
C hina August Retail Sales
C hina August Industrial Production
14 September India August Wholesale Prices
15 September Korea August Merchandise Trade
Korea August Unemployment
Philippines Q2 2010 Unemployment
16 September Hong Kong August Unemployment
17 September Philippines Q2 2010 Balance of Payments
Singapore August Merchandise Trade
21 September Hong Kong August C onsumer Prices
22 September Malaysia August C onsumer Prices
23 September Singapore August C onsumer Prices
Taiwan August Industrial Production
Taiwan August Unemployment
24 September Singapore August Industrial Production
27 September Hong Kong August Merchandise Trade
28 September Philippines July Industrial Production

FOCUSECONOMICS China September 2010
China
China
Outlook deteriorates
• According to data recently published in China and Japan, the Chinese
economy overtook Japan’s to become the world’s second largest
economy in the second quarter. Going forward, China is expected to
continue to gain ground on the world’s largest economy, the United
States, but it will be decades before it can seize the No 1 spot.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 • Consensus Forecast panellists have cut their forecasts for GDP
Population (million): 1,294 1,326 1,382 growth by 0.1 percentage points over last month and expect the
GDP (USD bn): 1,510 3,562 7,817
economy to grow 10.0% this year. For 2011, the panel sees economic
GDP per capita (USD): 1,165 2,681 5,645
GDP growth (%): 9.2 10.7 9.2 growth slowing to 8.9%.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.3 -0.8 -1.7
Inflation (%): 1.1 2.6 3.1
• Inflation rose from 2.9% in June to 3.3% in July. Panellists expect
Current Account (% of GDP): 2.4 8.6 4.2
External Debt (% of GDP): 12.0 10.4 5.9 inflation to average 3.2% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage
points over last month’s projection. In 2011, the panel expects inflation
to moderate a notch to 3.1%.
Keith Catlin REAL SECTOR | China surpasses Japan to become world’s second largest
Senior Economist economy
According to second quarter data published by the National Bureau of Statistics
of China (NBS) and the numbers published by the Cabinet Office (CO) in Japan,
Gross Domestic Product | nominal value China surpassed Japan as the world’s second largest economy in U.S. dollars
terms. In the second quarter, China’s GDP reached USD 1.34 trillion, whereas
8,000
Japan’s GDP was USD 1.29 trillion. Quarterly comparisons are fully dependable,
China Japan as the numbers do not take into account the seasonal variations in each
6,000
economy.
4,000
For the full year, Consensus Forecast panellists expect China to surpass Japan
USD Bn
in total output, which will mean that China will officially become the world’s
2,000
second largest economy, right behind the United States. Currently, estimates
for when China will surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy vary greatly,
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
with some analysts seeing China taking the number one spot as early as 2027
and others not expecting it to do so until more than a decade later.
Note: Nominal value of GDP in current USD bn.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the Cabinet Office of
Japan (CO) and FocusEconomics calculations. For this year, the government maintains an 8.0% economic growth target, but
the private sector expects growth to come in well above this level. Panellists
have cut their projections 0.1 percentage points over the previous month and
expect the economy to expand 10.0%. For next year, panellists expect the
economy to expand 8.9% which is unchanged over last month’s Consensus.

Industrial Production | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Government announces plant closures

In July, industrial production expanded 13.4% over the same month last year.
25.0 The reading came in below the previous month’s 13.7% expansion but was in
Year-on-year Annual Average
20.7 20.7
line with market expectations.
20.0 19.2
18.5 18.1 17.8
16.1 16.5
One of the primary drivers behind the monthly slowdown was automobile
15.0 13.9 13.7 13.4 manufacturing, which increased 9.7% year-on-year, slightly down from 9.9% in
12.3
%
10.8 June. Automobile manufacturing has been spurred by a tax incentive on small
10.0
car purchases, which are being partially rolled back throughout 2010.
5.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Despite the July slowdown, annual average growth in industrial production
increased for the eleventh consecutive month, rising from 16.5% in June to
Note: Year-on-year and annual average var. of industrial production in %. 16.7%.
Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, January and Feb-
ruary data are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics
calculations. On 8 August, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology ordered 2,087
plants to close outdated facilities by the end of September. The move was
aimed at “eliminating backward production capacity” as well as improving the
environmental efficiency of the economy, according to the government. The
firms targeted by the policy are mostly in high-polluting, resource-intensive
Nominal Retail Sales | variation in % industries, such as steel, coal, glass and paper production. The government
24.0
did not order the complete closure of all these plants, but only specific
components with “backward production capacity”, such as outdated blast
22.1
22.0 furnaces and coke ovens.
20.0
%
18.5 18.7 18.3
Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial output growth to slow to
18.0 17.9
18.0 17.5 15.3% for the full year 2010, which is unchanged over last month’s estimate.
16.2 For 2010, the panel expects industrial production to moderate further to 13.6%.
15.8
16.0 15.5
15.2 15.4 15.2
14.0 REAL SECTOR | Retail sales come up short

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
In July, nominal retail sales increased 17.9% over the same month last year.
The figure came in below the 18.3% increase registered in June and undershot
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of retail sales in %. Janu-
ary and February data are affected by to seasonal factors related to the market expectations, which had seen retail sales accelerating to a 18.5%
Lunar New Year.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics increase.
calculations.
The slowdown in retail was, in part, the result of weaker automobile sales growth,
which fell from 28.3% year-on-year growth in June to 27.6% in July. Car sales
Nominal Urban Fixed Investment | variation in % have been a key component of the strength of the retail sector during the last
year, as government incentives helped spur car purchases.
40.0
Year-on-year
Annual Average
35.1
Despite the slowdown observed in the June reading, annual average retail
35.0 33.6
sales continued to rise, improving from 17.2% in June to 17.4%, which is the
31.6
29.9
highest level since July 2009.
30.0
%
26.6 26.6 26.3
25.4 25.4
24.9
Consensus Forecast panellists expect retail sales to grow 19.2% this year,
25.0 24.3
22.3
which is unchanged over last month’s forecast. For 2010, the panel anticipates
20.5 retail sales to slow to 17.1%.
20.0
REAL SECTOR | Investment continues to slow

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of nominal urban fixed in- In the first seven months of the year, nominal urban fixed-asset investment
vestment in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year,
January and February data are reported together. increased 24.9% over the same period last year. The reading was down from
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics
calculations. the 25.5% figure tallied in the first half of the year and undershot market
expectations, which had seen investment adding 25.3%.

Based on the seven-month growth rate published by the National Statistical

Office (NBS), urban fixed-asset investment grew 22.3% year-on-year in July,
which was down from the previous month’s 24.9% reading, and represented
the slowest rate of expansion so far this year.
Consensus Forecast participants expect urban fixed-asset investment growth

to expand 25.0% for the full year 2008, which is unchanged from last month’s
Purchasing Managers’ Index estimate. For 2011, the panel expects investment to moderate to 21.7%.
60 OUTLOOK | PMI continues to fall in July
55
The July Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFPL)
50 fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51.2%, which was in line with market forecasts.
%
Despite the moderation in July, the index has now tallied 17 consecutive months
45
above 50% threshold after plummeting far below that level in November 2008.
40 A reading above 50% indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding,
while a reading below 50% implies a contraction.
35
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
The weakening was broad-based, as all but one of the 11 components

Note: Purchasing Managers’ Index from the National Bureau of Statistics of
composing the index fell over the previous month. That said, the category that
China (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). experienced the most marked decrease was production, which may augur for
A reading above 50 shows an increase while a value below 50 shows a
decrease. a continued deceleration in industrial output, as the government tries to cool
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the China Federa-
tion of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). the economy.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises to highest level in nearly two years

In July, consumer prices rose by 3.3% annually. The figure came in above the
2.9% year-on-year increase registered in the previous month, but was in line
with market expectations. Furthermore, the reading represented the highest
level observed since November 2008. The main drivers behind the increase
were higher prices for food as well as for housing. Higher food prices were
partially caused by flooding that disrupted food supplies. As a result of the July
figure, annual average inflation jumped from the 1.1% posted in June to 1.6%.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index

Producer prices, in contrast, continue to moderate. In June, the producer price
index (PPI) added a less-than-expected 4.8% annually, which came in well
4.0
Year-on-year 2.8
3.1
2.9
3.3
below the previous month’s 6.4% reading. A moderation in producer prices
2.7
2.4
Annual Average
1.9
may feed into lower consumer prices going forward.
2.0 1.5
0.6
0.0
Although the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has kept interest rates on hold at
% -0.5 5.31% since December 2008, monetary authorities continue to tighten the reins
-0.8
-2.0
-1.2 by raising the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). The PBOC raised the RRR
-1.8
three times this year, but has left ratio unchanged since May.
-4.0
Going forward, higher wages could feed through to higher prices, according to
Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Despite
Note: Annual and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) . the warning, Sheng stated that the country would be able to meet this year’s
3.0% inflation target. Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to
average 3.2% in 2010, which is 0.1 percentage points down from last month’s
estimate. For 2011, the panel expects inflation to moderate a notch to 3.1%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Export growth moderates slightly in July

In July, exports added 38.1% over the same month last year to reach USD
145.5 billion. The figure came in below the 43.9% expansion in June, but
overshot market expectations, which had seen exports growing 35.0%.

Merchandise Trade | USD bn Meanwhile, imports grew 22.7% year-on-year (June: +34.1% yoy) to reach USD
116.8 billion. As a result, the trade surplus rose from USD 20.0 billion in July to
150
USD 28.0 billion in June, the largest surplus tallied since January 2009. As a
result, the three month average in exports reached USD 138.2 billion, which is
100
above the USD 136.0 billion pre-crisis peak reached in September 2008.
Consensus Forecast panellists estimate year exports to grow 23.5% this year
50
and 14.1% in 2011.
Trade Balance Exports Imports
-50
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10
Note: Monthly exports, imports and trade balance in USD billion.

Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China
and FocusEconomics calculations.

Economic Indicators | 2005 - 2014

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
Population (million) 1,322 1,314 1,323 1,331 1,340 1,365 1,374 1,382 1,391 1,400
GDP per capita (USD) 1,685 2,032 2,564 3,406 3,720 4,180 4,818 5,559 6,364 7,302
GDP (USD bn) 2,228 2,671 3,391 4,535 4,984 5,705 6,619 7,685 8,855 10,224
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 10.4 11.6 13.0 9.6 9.1 10.0 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 12.0 9.8 10.7 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.4 9.4
Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %) 26.0 23.9 25.8 26.1 30.5 25.0 21.7 23.4 20.7 21.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 16.3 16.4 18.0 12.9 11.1 15.3 13.6 13.1 12.6 12.3
Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 12.9 13.7 16.8 21.7 15.5 19.2 17.1 18.2 18.2 19.0
Unemployment (% of active population) 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -0.7 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.4 -1.5 -0.9
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 11.8 17.5 21.4 8.6 32.4 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.6 2.8 6.5 1.2 1.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 3.2 3.0 5.4 -1.1 1.7 - - - - -
12-Month Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.58 6.12 7.47 5.31 5.31 5.61 5.95 6.67 7.05 7.53
Stock Market (SSE comp. var. in %) -8.3 130 96.7 -65.4 80.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 8.07 7.82 7.30 6.83 6.83 6.64 6.36 6.18 6.03 5.84
Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, average) 8.18 7.94 7.59 6.93 6.83 6.73 6.50 6.27 6.11 5.94
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.2 9.4 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.7 4.1 4.3 4.1 3.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 161 250 372 426 297 267 268 329 363 393
Trade Balance (USD bn) 102 177 262 297 197 161 147 192 183 201
Exports (USD bn) 763 969 1,218 1,430 1,202 1,492 1,702 1,909 2,126 2,345
Imports (USD bn) 660 792 956 1,133 1,005 1,330 1,555 1,717 1,942 2,160
Exports (annual variation in %) 28.4 27.1 25.7 17.4 -15.9 23.5 14.1 12.2 11.4 10.3
Imports (annual variation in %) 17.7 19.9 20.7 18.5 -11.3 34.3 16.9 10.4 13.1 11.2
International Reserves (USD bn) 819 1,066 1,528 1,946 2,399 2,690 2,956 3,116 3,311 3,450
International Reserves (months of imports) 14.9 16.2 19.2 20.6 28.7 24.3 22.8 21.8 20.5 19.2
External Debt (USD bn) 281 323 374 375 398 396 407 458 491 518
External Debt (% of GDP) 12.6 12.1 11.0 8.3 8.0 6.9 6.1 6.0 5.5 5.1
Quarterly Data Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 13.0 6.4 5.3 9.0 12.3 17.9 19.6 16.0 14.6 12.7
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 5.3 2.5 -0.6 -1.5 -1.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 3.4
12-Month Lending Rate (%, eop) 7.21 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.52 5.61
Monthly Data Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10
Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %) 24.3 20.5 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.4 25.4 24.9 22.3 -
Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 19.2 18.5 20.7 20.7 18.1 17.8 16.5 13.7 13.4 -
Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 15.8 17.5 15.2 22.1 18.0 18.5 18.7 18.3 17.9 -
PMI (50.0%-point threshold) 55.2 56.6 55.8 52.0 55.1 55.7 53.9 52.1 51.2 -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.6 1.9 1.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.3 -

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 1995 - 2014 | % variation 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation Real GDP growth in %
18 20
China Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
China
Asia (ex Japan) Allianz 10.0 9.0
Asia (ex Japan) World
World 15 ANZ 10.2 9.6
12
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 9.5 9.0
10 Capital Economics 10.0 8.0
6
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9.5 8.8
Core Pacific-Yamaichi 9.5 -
5
Credit Suisse 9.7 8.8
0 Daiwa Capital Markets 9.8 8.6
0 DBS Bank 11.0 10.0
Deutsche Bank 9.6 8.6
-6 -5 Goldman Sachs 10.1 10.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Hang Seng Bank 9.5 9.0
HSBC 10.0 8.9
ING 10.0 9.0
3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts
JPMorgan 10.8 9.4
14 12
Maximum Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 9.5 8.7
Maximum
Consensus Morgan Stanley 10.0 9.5
Consensus
Minimum
12
Minimum RBC Capital Markets 9.7 8.8
10 Standard Chartered Bank 10.0 8.0
UBS 10.0 8.7
10 United Overseas Bank 10.0 8.3
Wing Hang Bank 12.0 -
8 Summary
8 Minimum 9.5 8.0
Maximum 12.0 10.0
Median 10.0 8.9
6 6 Consensus 10.0 8.9
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul History
30 days ago 10.1 8.9
5 | Consumption | % variation 6 | Investment | % variation
60 days ago 10.2 9.0
90 days ago 10.0 9.1
15 40
China Additional Forecasts
China
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) IMF (July 2010) 9.8 9.6
30 ADB (July 2010) 9.6 9.1
10
20
Notes and sources

10
General:
5
Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All real
sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS),
0
Asian Development Bank (ADB) and FocusEconomics estimates. See be-
low for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Fore-
cast.
0 -10
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: NBS.
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts
3 GDP, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
11 30 4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2010 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: FocusEconomics
2011
estimate.
6 Nominal urban fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.
7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
10 25
18 months.
8 Nominal urban fixed investment, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts
during the last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.
9 20 10 Urban unemployment, % of active population. Source: NBS.
11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: ADB.
12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
2010
last 18 months.
2011 13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18
8 15 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption Investment Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance
% variation % variation % variation % of active pop. % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
Allianz - - - - - - - - -2.9 -2.5
ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 9.8 9.4 25.0 21.5 15.6 16.0 4.3 4.0 -3.0 -1.5
Capital Economics - - - - - - - - -3.0 -2.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9.0 9.5 - - 14.5 12.7 4.1 4.0 -2.7 -2.4
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - - - 4.0 - - -
Credit Suisse 9.5 9.0 - - - - 4.2 4.2 -2.7 -2.0
Daiwa Capital Markets - - - - 12.3 12.5 - - -1.0 1.5
DBS Bank - - 25.0 22.0 - - - - -2.8 -2.5
Deutsche Bank 9.0 9.0 21.0 20.0 13.5 12.0 - - -2.5 -2.0
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -1.9 -
Hang Seng Bank - - - - 14.0 12.0 - - - -
HSBC 9.5 9.2 26.0 20.0 15.5 13.3 4.6 4.5 -2.7 -2.6
ING - - 28.0 25.0 17.8 17.0 4.2 4.2 -2.8 -2.4
JPMorgan - - - - 15.9 13.6 4.4 4.2 -2.1 -1.8
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 9.2 9.7 - - - - 4.3 4.2 - -
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - -3.0 -3.0
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - -2.3 -1.1
Standard Chartered Bank - - - - - - - - - -
UBS 9.7 9.0 - - - - - - -3.5 -2.0
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - - -2.7 -1.9
Wing Hang Bank - - 25.0 - 19.0 - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 9.0 9.0 21.0 20.0 12.3 12.0 4.0 4.0 -3.5 -3.0
Maximum 9.8 9.7 28.0 25.0 19.0 17.0 4.6 4.5 -1.0 1.5
Median 9.5 9.2 25.0 21.5 15.5 13.0 4.3 4.2 -2.7 -2.0
Consensus 9.4 9.3 25.0 21.7 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.9
History
30 days ago 9.4 9.3 25.0 21.7 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.8
60 days ago 9.5 9.2 24.7 21.9 15.3 13.9 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.8
90 days ago 9.5 9.2 24.5 21.8 15.3 13.9 4.2 4.2 -2.6 -1.7
9 | Industry | % variation 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

24 5 4
China
China China
Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan)
World
18
4 0
12
3 -4
6
0 2 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
16 4.7 -1
2010 2010 2010

2011 2011 2011
14 4.5 -2
12 4.3 -3
10 4.1 -4
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

Monetary Sector | Inflation, Money, Producer Prices and Stock Market
15 | Inflation | 1995 - 2014 | in % 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %
20 12
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
China China
Asia (ex Japan)
Allianz 3.2 3.0
Asia (ex Japan)
15 ANZ - -
8
4
5
0 Daiwa Capital Markets 3.5 2.5
0 DBS Bank 4.0 3.0
-5 -4 Goldman Sachs 2.4 1.3
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Hang Seng Bank 3.0 2.5
HSBC 2.9 2.5
ING 2.5 2.5
17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 3.2 2.5
6 6
Maximum Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 3.8 4.4
Maximum
Consensus Consensus Morgan Stanley 2.8 2.5
Minimum Minimum
RBC Capital Markets - -
4 4 Standard Chartered Bank 2.5 4.0
UBS 3.0 4.0
United Overseas Bank 3.9 4.7
2 2 Summary
Minimum 2.4 1.3
Maximum 4.0 5.2
Median 3.0 2.7
0 0 Consensus 3.2 3.1
30 days ago 3.3 3.1
19 | Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation
60 days ago 3.3 3.3
90 days ago 3.4 3.4
10 40
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Apr. 2010) 3.1 2.4
ADB (Mar. 2010) 3.6 3.2
30
5
20
0
10
-5 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Notes and sources
General:
21 | MSCI Broad China Index 22 | Stock Market | SSE Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China
3,500 6,000 (NBS) and People’s Bank of China (PBOC). See below for details. Fore-
casts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
3,000 5,000 15 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in
%. Source: NBS.
16 Quarterly inflation, average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in
2,500 4,000
%. Source: NBS.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2,000 3,000 18 Inflation, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
19 Producer price index, annual variation in % (eop). 2000-2009.
Source: NBS.
1,500 2,000 20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: PBOC.
21 Daily MSCI Broad China index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end of
previous month. Source: MSCI Barra.
1,000 1,000 22 Daily index levels, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul (SSE). Jan. 2008 until end of previous month. Source: Shanghai Stock
Exchange.

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
14 8
Interest Rate Exchange Rate
% CNY per USD
12 Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011
Allianz - - 6.60 6.30
7
10
ANZ 6.12 - 6.62 6.21
Bank of China (Hong Kong) - - 6.40 6.20
Capital Economics 5.31 6.12 6.70 6.50
8
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - - 6.70 6.50
6
Core Pacific-Yamaichi 5.85 - 6.62 -
6 Credit Suisse - - 6.70 6.47
Daiwa Capital Markets 5.58 5.58 6.45 6.20
DBS Bank 5.85 - 6.69 -
4 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Deutsche Bank - - 6.70 6.47
Goldman Sachs - - 6.70 6.49
Hang Seng Bank 5.30 5.60 6.65 6.50
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst HSBC 5.31 5.31 6.67 -
7 8 ING - - 6.75 6.60
Maximum
Consensus JPMorgan 5.85 6.12 6.60 6.20
Minimum
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 5.60 6.90 6.61 6.38
6 7 Morgan Stanley - - - -
RBC Capital Markets 5.58 6.12 6.60 6.20
Standard Chartered Bank 5.31 5.85 6.63 6.35
5 6 UBS - - 6.55 6.20
United Overseas Bank 5.85 - 6.77 -
Wing Hang Bank 5.40 - 6.80 -
4 5 Summary
Maximum
Consensus Minimum 5.30 5.31 6.40 6.20
Minimum Maximum 6.12 6.90 6.80 6.60
3 4 Median 5.58 5.99 6.65 6.37
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
Consensus 5.61 5.95 6.64 6.36
History
27 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD 30 days ago 5.66 6.01 6.64 6.36
60 days ago 5.74 6.28 6.62 6.29
9 8.0
90 days ago 5.86 6.35 6.59 6.27
8 7.5
7 7.0
6 6.5
Notes and sources
General:
5 6.0 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 monetary and external sector data are from the National Bureau of Statis-
tics of China (NBS), the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), State Adminis-
tration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and General Administration of Cus-
29 | CNY/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | CNY/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts toms of the People’s Republic of China (Customs). See below for details.
Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
7.0 7.0
Maximum 23 Interest rate, 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop). Source: PBOC.

Consensus 24 Quarterly interest rate, 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop). Source:
Minimum
PBOC.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
6.5 6.5
27 Exchange rate,CNY per USD (eop). Source: SAFE.
28 Quarterly exchange rate, CNY per USD (eop). Source: PBOC.
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months.
6.0 6.0 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.
Maximum 32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Customs.
Consensus 33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: PBOC.
Minimum
34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
5.5 5.5 during the last 18 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Customs.
36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves

Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves
USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn
Allianz 225 243 150 170 1,500 1,650 1,350 1,480 2,750 3,100
ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 267 301 200 208 1,346 1,556 1,146 1,348 2,685 2,861
Capital Economics 320 380 220 - 1,680 - 1,460 - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 290 304 171 170 1,529 1,732 1,358 1,562 2,600 2,850
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - - - - - - -
Credit Suisse 288 327 195 221 1,446 1,696 1,251 1,475 2,803 3,247
Daiwa Capital Markets 140 176 93 77 1,370 1,507 1,277 1,430 2,636 2,860
DBS Bank 250 210 104 35 1,563 1,844 1,459 1,809 2,749 2,899
Deutsche Bank 227 181 167 101 1,562 1,734 1,395 1,633 2,550 2,850
Goldman Sachs 309 - - - - - - - - -
Hang Seng Bank - - 158 121 1,526 1,831 1,368 1,710 - -
HSBC 254 251 175 183 1,502 1,802 1,327 1,619 2,550 2,700
ING 228 231 101 93 1,467 1,746 1,366 1,653 2,700 2,900
JPMorgan 270 263 217 211 1,500 1,734 1,283 1,523 2,766 3,146
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. - - - - - - - - - -
Morgan Stanley 343 302 - - - - - - - -
RBC Capital Markets 338 325 - - - - - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank 331 301 - - - - - - - -
UBS 269 280 140 170 1,418 1,588 1,278 1,418 2,800 3,100
United Overseas Bank 200 220 - - - - - - - -
Wing Hang Bank - - 169 - 1,476 - 1,307 - - -
Summary
Minimum 176 176 93 35 1,346 1,507 1,146 1,348 2,550 2,700
Maximum 380 380 220 221 1,680 1,844 1,460 1,809 2,803 3,247
Median 272 272 168 170 1,500 1,733 1,339 1,542 2,700 2,899
Consensus 268 268 161 147 1,492 1,702 1,330 1,555 2,690 2,956
History
30 days ago 264 268 159 144 1,490 1,699 1,331 1,555 2,690 2,956
60 days ago 265 270 163 152 1,479 1,688 1,316 1,536 2,691 2,961
90 days ago 276 280 183 176 1,418 1,634 1,236 1,458 2,690 2,971
31 | Current Account | % of GDP 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
15 2,400 30
Trade Balance China
China Exports Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Imports 25
10 1,800
20
5 1,200
15
0 600
10
-5 0 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 36 | External Debt | % of GDP
450 45 60
China
2010
2011 Asia (ex Japan)
30
400 45
15
350 30
0
300 15
-15
China
Asia (ex Japan)
250 -30 0
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fact Sheet
General Data China in the Region
Official name: People's Republic of China Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Beijing (13.3 m)
Other cities: Shanghai (19.2 m) Malaysia
Korea Malaysia Other Other
Chengdu (11.0 m) 2% 1% 10% Korea
2%
14%
10%
Chongqing (5.2 m) Indonesia
Indonesia
7%
6%
China
Area (km2): 9,596,960 43%
Population (million, 2009 est.): 1,338 India

Pop. density (per km2, 2009 est.): 139 15%
Pop. growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 0.7

India China
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 73.5 37% 53%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 9.1

Language: Mandarin Chinese and other
Measures: Metric & local systems
Time: 8 hours ahead of GMT
Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2009)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 23.3
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 55.5 Industry Industry
46%
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 28.5 48%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 7.7

Agricultur
Agricultur e
Energy (2007) e 1999 11% 2009
16%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 70,796
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 77,808
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 3,041
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 2,835 Services Services
38% 41%
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,912
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 7,582
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 6,247
Transportation (2009)
Airports: 482 Trade Structure
Railways (km): 77,834
Roadways (km): 3,583,715 Primary markets | share in %
Waterways (km): 110,000
Chief Ports: Shanghai, Canton, Ningbo USA
EU-27
USA 11%
EU-27 7%
18%
20%
Japan
12%
Political Data
Hong
Prime Minister: Hu Jintao Exports Japan Imports Kong &
Other 8%
Macao
Last elections: 15 March 2008 25%
Hong
Other
3%
45%
Next elections: March 2013 Kong & Other
Macao Asia
Chairman of the PBOC: Zhou Xiaochuan Other 14% 22%
Asia
15%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Agency Rating Outlook Primary products | share in %

Moody’s: A1 Positive
S&P: A+ Stable Agricultural
Manufactur
Fitch Ratings: A+ Stable es
products
8%
93%
Fuel and
mining
products Manufact
Strengths Weaknesses Exports 28% Imports ures
65%
Fuels and
• Huge domestic market • Lack of comprehensive infra- mining
structure products
4%
• Large workforce Agricultural
• Nascent legal system products
• Competitive labour costs 3%
• Financial system vulnerability

FOCUSECONOMICS Hong Kong September 2010
Hong Kong
Hong Kong
Outlook improves
• In the second quarter, gross domestic product expanded 6.5% annually
on the back of spurring demand and service exports. Although there
are concerns that the debt crisis in Europe will slow demand, inbound
tourism is expected to buttress consumption.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages • Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will expand
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 5.6% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
Population (million): 6.7 6.9 7.2 forecast. For 2011, the panel expects the economy to expand 4.5%.
GDP (USD bn): 165 200 264
GDP growth (%): 4.4 4.0 4.6 • Inflation dropped sharply to 1.3% in July from June’s 2.8%. However,
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 2.7 0.6 government expects inflation to increase again in the coming months
Inflation (%): -2.3 2.0 2.9
due to strong domestic demand. Panellists expect inflation to average
External Debt (% of GDP): 188 300 217 2.7% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
projection. In 2011, the panel expects inflation to rise to 3.0%.
Joan Enric Domene REAL SECTOR | Hong Kong grows more than expected in Q2
Economist In the second quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.5% over
the same quarter last year. The reading fell short of the 8.0% growth recorded
in the first quarter (previously reported: +8.2% year-on-year) but was slightly
ahead of market expectations of 6.3%.
GDP by Type Q2 2010 | variation in % The slowdown over the previous quarter was driven by weaker growth in
domestic demand, as the contribution from the external sector improved.
Private consumption decelerated from a 7.1% expansion in the first quarter
Imports 22.4
to 4.6% increase in the second, while government consumption slowed down
Exports 19.5
from 3.4% to 2.7%. Gross fixed investment, in contrast, accelerated from a
Investment 15.2
8.2% annual expansion in the first quarter to 15.2% growth in the second
quarter. Nevertheless, domestic demand receded from a 16.2% expansion
GDP 6.5
in the first quarter to 11.7%.
Private
4.6
Consumption
Government
Exports of goods and services continued to fare strongly in the second quarter,
2.7
Consumption
amid the sustained global economic recovery. Exports grew 19.5%, following
%
0.0 6.0 12.0 18.0 24.0 30.0 on a 20.7% expansion in the first quarter, while imports rose 22.4% (Q1:
+25.8% yoy). As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall
Note: Year-on-year changes in %.
Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong and FocusEconomics cal- growth improved from a 6.8 percentage-point detraction in the first quarter to
culations.
a 4.5 percentage-point detraction in the second.
A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the robust expansion

suggested by the annual figures, as the economy increased 1.4% over the
first quarter in seasonally adjusted terms. The government recently revised
up its forecast for full-year growth to between 5.0% and 6.0% (previously
expected: 4.0% to 5.0%). That said, for the time being, the government remains
cautious as the outlook for exports remains somewhat uncertain, and expects
growth to moderate slightly in the second half of the year.

Consensus Forecast panellists are also upbeat about this year’s prospects
and anticipate the economy will expand 5.6%, which is up 0.2 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. For 2011, the panel expects the economy
to grow 4.5%.
REAL SECTOR | Retail sales moderate in June

In June, retail sales rose 12.1% over the same moth last year in volume
terms. The figure was well below the 16.3% increase recorded in May and
also undershot market expectations that had seen retail sales expanding
14.7%. Despite the slowdown, June’s reading represented the fifth
Retail Sales | variation in % consecutive month of retail sales expanding at a double-digit pace, reflecting
a strong rebound in local consumption and inbound tourism.
40.0
YoY Annual average
31.5 The monthly expansion was broad-based. That said, the main drivers behind
30.0
the strong increase were sales of motor vehicles and parts which increased
20.0 17.3
by 35.1% year-on-year, as well as jewellery, watches and valuable gifts, which
16.3
%
11.4 12.4 12.1 rose 18.3%. However, seasonally adjusted figures do not corroborate the
10.0
8.3
10.0 strong growth suggested by the annual figures, as retail sales fell 2.6% in
3.2
1.2 the three-month period ending in June, compared to the preceding period
0.0
-0.9 ending in March. The trend, however, continues to point up, as annual average
-4.1 -5.2
-10.0 growth in retail sales increased from 8.0% in May to 9.4% in June.
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variationin %. A government spokesman stated that looking ahead, recovery in local
Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong and FocusEconomics cal-
culations. consumer demand will be subject to uncertainties due to the evolving
European debt crisis. Nevertheless, the expected strength in inbound tourism
shall aid retail businesses.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates unexpectedly in July

In July, consumer prices declined 1.4% over the previous month, which
contrasted the 0.1% rise recorded in June. The drop in prices was the result
of lower housing prices due to the government’s provision of two-month
payment for public housing tenants which started in July. Moreover, lower
prices for electricity, gas and water as well as for clothing more than offset
higher prices for food and transport.
In line with the monthly price fall, annual inflation dropped from 2.8% in June
3.0 4.0
to 1.3%, the lowest level in six months. The figure undershot market
2.1
2.0
expectations, which had seen prices rising 2.9%. Finally, annual average
inflation rose from 1.2% in June to 1.5%.
1.0 2.0
1.0 0.7
0.4 0.4
% %
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 A government spokesman stated that consumer prices should still be subject
0.0
-0.2 0.0 to moderate upward pressures. That said, despite the expected economic
-0.4
-1.0 expansion, the sustained growth in productivity in the economy should help
Monthly (left scale)
Annual (right scale) -1.4 to alleviate part of the domestic cost pressures. The government sees inflation
-1.6
-2.0 -2.0
averaging 2.3% this year.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 2.7% this year,

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong. which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2011,
the panel expects annual average inflation to rise further to 3.0%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
Population (million) 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2
GDP (USD bn) 178 190 207 215 211 228 245 262 281 302
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 7.1 7.0 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.0 5.9 8.5 2.4 -0.4 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.0
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 4.1 7.1 3.4 0.8 -1.8 9.1 7.5 5.9 4.9 5.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.5 2.2 -1.4 -6.7 -8.3 1.4 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.1
Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 5.2 4.4 3.4 4.1 4.9 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.0 4.0 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 1.4 1.8
Money (annual variation of M1 money in %) -10.3 13.1 25.4 4.7 39.6 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 0.7 2.2 3.0 5.6 -1.7 - - - - -
91-day HIBOR (%, eop) 4.23 3.90 3.45 0.95 0.14 0.48 1.21 1.94 2.64 2.97
Stock Market (variation of HSI in %) 4.5 34.2 39.3 -48.3 52.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, eop) 7.75 7.77 7.80 7.75 7.76 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79
Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, average) 7.78 7.77 7.80 7.79 7.75 7.78 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 20.2 22.9 25.5 29.3 18.3 19.7 22.0 21.1 23.5 22.8
Trade Balance (USD bn) -7.6 -14.0 -19.7 -23.1 -26.9 -42.2 -48.1 -44.3 -43.2 -53.7
Exports (USD bn) 290 318 346 365 322 363 403 424 450 477
Imports (USD bn) 297 332 366 388 349 406 451 470 491 515
International Reserves (USD bn) 124 133 153 183 256 268 304 340 349 373
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.6 -1.2 -7.7 -3.8 -2.4 2.5 8.0 6.5 4.7 3.3
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 4.6 2.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.4 2.4
91-day HIBOR (%, eop) 3.66 0.95 0.90 0.36 0.22 0.14 0.15 0.57 0.47 0.48
Monthly Data Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 8.3 10.0 11.4 3.2 31.5 17.3 12.4 16.3 12.1 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 2.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -1.4
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.2 0.5 1.3 1.0 2.8 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 1.3

1 | Real GDP | 1995-2014 | % variation 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation Real GDP growth in %
12 15 Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan) ANZ 5.3 4.3
World
8 10 Bank of China (Hong Kong) 5.0 4.5
Capital Economics 6.5 4.0
4 5
0 0 Daiwa Capital Markets 3.5 2.5
DBS Bank 7.0 4.5
-4 -5 Deutsche Bank 6.5 5.5
Hong Kong Goldman Sachs 6.0 5.3
Asia (ex Japan)
World Hang Seng Bank 5.0 4.5
-8 -10
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC 5.4 4.7
ING 6.2 5.8
JPMorgan 6.8 4.2
3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts Morgan Stanley 6.0 4.0
8 8 Standard Chartered Bank 5.4 5.0
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus UBS 6.0 4.3
Minimum Minimum United Overseas Bank 5.5 4.5
6 6
Summary
Minimum 3.5 2.5
4 4
Maximum 7.0 5.8
Median 5.5 4.5
2 2
Consensus 5.6 4.5
History
30 days ago 5.4 4.6
0 0 60 days ago 5.4 4.6
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 90 days ago 5.2 4.6
Government (Aug. 2010) 5.0-6.0 -
IMF(July 2010) 6.0 4.4
12 20 ADB (July 2010) 5.4 4.3
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
8
10
0
Notes and sources
-10 General:
-4
Hong Kong
sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
(C&SD) and the Treasury of Hong Kong (Treasury). See below for details.
-8 -20
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.

Source: C&SD.
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.
8 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.
4
18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
6 last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.
2 10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: C&SD.
11 Consolidated fiscal balance, % of GDP. Source: Treasury.
4
2010
2010
last 18 months.
2011 2011 13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18
0 2 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Consolidated fiscal balance, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts

Consumption Investment Unemployment Fiscal Balance

% variation % variation % of active pop. % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
ANZ - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 5.5 5.3 10.5 9.8 4.0 3.5 - -
Capital Economics 4.0 4.5 8.0 4.0 - - -1.5 0.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.5 3.7 9.3 4.5 4.5 4.1 0.5 1.0
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - 4.3 - - -
Credit Suisse 4.8 4.2 8.1 6.9 4.0 3.8 -1.4 -0.7
Daiwa Capital Markets 4.6 3.7 12.7 12.0 - - -2.1 -1.6
DBS Bank 4.1 3.5 7.0 6.0 4.2 3.7 - -
Deutsche Bank 7.8 5.0 10.2 13.5 4.6 4.0 0.1 -0.2
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - -
Hang Seng Bank 5.0 4.0 10.8 7.8 4.4 4.0 - -
HSBC 4.9 3.5 6.6 7.4 4.9 4.5 -0.8 -0.5
ING 4.7 5.5 7.6 7.1 4.9 4.5 2.1 3.0
JPMorgan - - - - - - -1.5 -0.7
Morgan Stanley 4.8 4.0 9.7 5.7 - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank - - - - - - - -
UBS 5.6 4.6 7.5 5.0 - - -1.4 -1.5
United Overseas Bank - - - - 4.2 3.8 0.8 0.5
Wing Hang Bank 6.5 - 9.9 - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 4.0 3.5 6.6 4.0 4.0 3.5 -2.1 -1.6
Maximum 7.8 5.5 12.7 13.5 4.9 4.5 2.1 3.0
Median 4.8 4.1 9.3 7.0 4.4 4.0 -1.1 -0.4
Consensus 5.1 4.3 9.1 7.5 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.1
History
30 days ago 5.2 4.4 8.4 6.8 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.1
60 days ago 5.2 4.2 8.7 7.2 4.3 3.9 -0.6 -0.1
90 days ago 5.1 4.0 8.9 7.5 4.4 3.9 -0.5 -0.1

20 8 10
10 5
6
0 0
4
-10 -5
Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong

-20 2 -10
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
3 7 2
2010
2011
6
0 0
-3 -2
4
2010 2010
2011 2011
-6 3 -4

15 9
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan) ANZ - -
10 6
5 3 Core Pacific-Yamaichi 3.0 -
Daiwa Capital Markets 3.0 2.6
0 0 DBS Bank 3.0 3.0
Hong Kong Deutsche Bank 2.2 3.0
Asia (ex Japan) Goldman Sachs 3.3 3.5
-5 -3 Hang Seng Bank 2.2 3.7
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 2.4 3.4
ING 2.5 2.1
17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst JPMorgan 2.7 2.1
6 8 Morgan Stanley 2.8 2.5
Maximum
Consensus Standard Chartered Bank 2.0 3.5
Minimum UBS 2.0 3.0
4 6 United Overseas Bank 2.7 3.0
Summary
2 4
Minimum 2.0 2.1
Maximum 4.0 5.1
0 2
Median 2.7 3.0
Consensus 2.7 3.0
Maximum
Consensus History
Minimum
-2 0 30 days ago 2.8 2.9
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 60 days ago 2.7 3.0
90 days ago 2.6 3.0
19 | Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation
Government (Aug. 2010) 2.3 -
6 50
IMF (Apr. 2010) 2.0 1.7
ADB (Mar. 2010) 2.2 2.8
4
25
2
0
0
-2
-4 -25 Notes and sources

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
General:
Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | HSI monetary sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department
11,000 30,000 Hong Kong (C&SD) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). See
below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Fore-
cast.
9,000 25,000 15 Inflation, annual variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: C&SD.
16 Quarterly inflation, year-on-year variation in consumer price index
7,000 20,000 (CPI) in % (eop). Source: C&SD.
19 Producer price index, annual variation in % (eop). 1995-2009. Source:
5,000 15,000 C&SD.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %.1995-2009 Source: HKMA.
21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. Jan. 2008 until end of previous
3,000 10,000 month. Source: MSCI Barra.
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
22 Daily index levels, Hang Seng Index (HSI). Jan. 2008 until end of
previous month. Source: Hang Seng Bank.

10 6
% HKD per USD
ANZ - - 7.75 7.80
4
6 Bank of China (Hong Kong) - - 7.80 7.80
Capital Economics - - 7.80 7.80
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 0.60 - 7.75 7.75
4
2 Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - 7.80 -
Credit Suisse 0.50 1.80 7.80 7.80
2 Daiwa Capital Markets - - 7.78 7.80
DBS Bank 0.65 - 7.75 -
0 0 Deutsche Bank 0.50 - 7.80 7.80
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Goldman Sachs 0.50 0.50 7.80 7.80
Hang Seng Bank - - 7.80 7.80
HSBC 0.30 1.40 7.80 7.80
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst
ING 0.70 1.70 7.79 7.76
4 5
Maximum Maximum JPMorgan - - 7.80 7.80
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum Morgan Stanley 0.45 1.30 7.80 7.80
4
3
UBS 0.30 1.50 7.80 7.80
3 United Overseas Bank 0.50 - 7.80 -
2 Wing Hang Bank - - 7.80 -
2
Summary
Minimum 0.30 0.30 7.75 7.75
1 Maximum 0.70 1.80 7.80 7.80
1
Median 0.50 1.40 7.80 7.80
Consensus 0.48 1.21 7.79 7.79
0 0 History
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 30 days ago 0.48 1.50 7.79 7.79
60 days ago 0.66 1.74 7.79 7.79
27 | Exchange Rate | HKD per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | HKD per USD 90 days ago 0.83 2.08 7.79 7.79
7.85 7.85
7.80 7.80
7.75 7.75
Notes and sources

General:
7.70 7.70 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 monetary and external sector data are from the Census and Statistics
Department Hong Kong (C&SD) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority
(HKMA). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast.
29 | HKD/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | HKD/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts
7.85 7.85 23 Interest rate, 91-day HIBOR in % (eop). Source: HKMA.
24 Quarterly interest rate, 91-day HIBOR in % (eop). Source: HKMA
7.80 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, HKD per USD (eop). Source: HKMA.
7.80
28 Quarterly exchange rate, HKD per USD (eop). Source: HKMA.
7.75 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: HKMA.
7.75 32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. 1995-2010. Source:
C&SD.
7.70
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: C&SD.
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus 34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
Minimum Minimum during the last 18 months.
7.70 7.65 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 36 International reserves in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011
forecast during the last 18 months.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) - - -32.3 -30.3 341 385 374 415 - -
Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 18.8 21.9 -34.1 -23.3 367 391 401 415 280 310
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - - - - - - -
Credit Suisse 30.1 30.6 -27.8 -32.2 375 423 402 456 304 353
Daiwa Capital Markets 14.3 10.1 -39.5 -46.2 360 381 399 427 291 326
DBS Bank 22.0 26.0 -67.0 -104.0 376 436 443 540 285 330
Deutsche Bank 7.8 13.8 -43.8 -43.9 384 423 428 466 237 221
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - - -
Hang Seng Bank - - -42.7 -47.7 358 386 400 434 - -
HSBC 16.7 18.0 -30.1 -33.6 355 389 385 423 247 230
ING 26.0 28.0 -32.0 -37.0 368 413 400 450 310 335
JPMorgan 28.7 29.7 -37.0 -51.1 372 425 409 476 296 331
Morgan Stanley 9.2 7.6 - - - - - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank 21.5 24.6 - - - - - - - -
UBS 25.7 32.1 -64.1 -80.2 364 383 428 463 162 -
United Overseas Bank 15.5 21.3 - - - - - - - -
Wing Hang Bank - - -56.1 - 340 - 397 - - -
Summary
Minimum 7.8 7.6 -67.0 -104.0 340 381 374 415 162 221
Maximum 30.1 32.1 -27.8 -23.3 384 436 443 540 310 353
Median 20.2 23.2 -38.2 -43.9 366 391 401 450 285 328
Consensus 19.7 22.0 -42.2 -48.1 363 403 406 451 268 304
History
30 days ago 20.4 22.8 -41.7 -47.5 362 402 404 449 278 302
60 days ago 22.3 24.0 -39.0 -44.3 360 400 399 444 266 303
90 days ago 22.1 24.0 -33.7 -34.7 356 396 390 430 268 304
15 600 20
Trade Balance
Hong Kong
Exports
Asia (ex Japan)
10 Imports
400 15
200 10
0 5
-5
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
-10 -200 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 36 | Int. Reserves | evol. of fcst
40 30 350
15 300
30
0 250
20
-15 200
2010
2011 Hong Kong 2010
Asia (ex Japan) 2011
10 -30 150
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 1995 2000 2005 2010 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

Fact Sheet
General Data Hong Kong in the Region
Official name: Hong Kong Special Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Administrative Region
Capital: Hong Kong
Other
Other cities: Hong Kong Island (1.3 m) Korea
Other Korea
10% 13%
11%
2%
Kowloon (2.0 m) Indonesia
Indonesia
New Territories (3.7 m) 7%
6%
Area (km2): 1104.0 China

43%
Population (million, 2009): 7.0 India
15%
Population density (per km2, 2009): 6361.4
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est 0.5
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 81.9 India
China
54%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2002): 6.5 37% Hong Kong
2%
Language: Cantonese, English Hong Kong
Measures: Metric system and 0.2%
Chinese standard weights

Telecommunication (2009) GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 59.7 2004 2009 100%
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 174 100%
Commerce
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 61.2
31.8 32.4 75%
75% Services
50%
18.9 17.5
Energy (2007) Industry
50%
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,129 9.2 7.6
25%
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 36.6
Finance and Real
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 38.5 25%
Estate
34.5 37.5
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 325 0%
Other
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 82.9 2003 2005 2007 2009
Private Consumption Government Consumption
5.6 5.0
0% Investment Net exports
Airports: 2
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 2,049
Chief Ports: Hong Kong
Primary markets | share in %
EU-27 EU-27
12% Japan USA 7% Japan
USA 4% 5% 10%
11% Other
12%
Political Data
Other
11% Imports
Chief Executive: Donald T. Yam-kuen Exports
Last elections: March 2007 Other
Other
Asia
Next elections: March 2012 Asia 19%
10% China China
Monetary Authority Chief Executive: Joseph Yam 52% 47%

Moody’s: Aa2 Positive
S&P: AA+ Stable Capital Other Foodstuffs
Fitch Ratings: AA Stable Goods manufactures Fuels 4%
33% 57% 3%
Consumer Raw
Goods materials
Strengths Weaknesses Exports Consum
26%
Imports 36%
er
• Model free trade policy setting • Economic policy constrained Goods
30%
by exchange rate system
• Low tax environment Raw
materials
• Interference from Beijing Other
• Highly skilled labour force 36%
1%
Capital
increases political uncertainty Goods
31%

FOCUSECONOMICS India September 2010
India
India
Outlook improves
• Growth in the industrial sector moderated to 7.1% in June, the slow-
est pace in 13 months, as the favourable base effect that had boosted
growth in the previous months is fading away.
• Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy to grow 8.3%

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages this fiscal year, which is up 0.1 percentage points over last month’s
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 forecast. For 2011/12, the panel sees economic growth at 8.4%.
Population (million): 1,040 1,137 1,236
GDP (USD bn): 543 1,079 2,259
• Wholesale price inflation is hovering around 10.0%, which pressured
GDP per capita (USD): 520 945 1,820
GDP growth (%): 6.0 8.5 8.4 the Central Bank to continue tightening monetary policy. Consensus
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.3 -4.6 -4.5 Forecast panellists expect wholesale price inflation to average 8.1%
Inflation (WPI, %): 5.2 5.4 5.5
this fiscal year, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.7 -1.7 -1.9
External Debt (% of GDP): 20.4 18.6 14.3 forecast. For 2011/12, the panel sees inflation moderating to 5.4%.
Ángel Talavera REAL SECTOR | Industrial production returns to single-digit growth

Senior Economist In June, industrial production expanded 7.1% over the same month last year,
according to the so-called quick estimate for the index of industrial production.
The reading was well below the 11.3% expansion recorded in May (previously
reported: +11.5% year-on-year) and market expectations, which had industrial
output rising 8.4%.
The figure marked, in fact, the slowest pace in 13 months, as the favourable
Industrial Production | variation in % base effect that has partly fuelled annual growth rates in previous months is
fading away (industrial output increased a solid 8.3% in June 2009).
20.0
Year-on-Year
17.7
Annual Average 16.5
16.3 The slowdown over the previous month was broad-based. The manufacturing
14.7 14.5
15.0
sector, which accounts for over three quarters of total industrial production,
12.0
10.6 10.2
11.3
expanded 7.3% in June, well below the 12.0% increase registered in May.
10.0 9.3
8.3 Mining added 9.5% year-on-year (May: +10.1% yoy) and, finally, electricity
7.2 7.1
%
production increased 3.5% (May: +6.4% yoy). On a use-based classification,
5.0
the monthly slowdown was driven by slower growth in capital goods (May:
+34.2% yoy; June: +9.7% yoy) as well as in basic goods.
0.0
Based on the preliminary monthly figures, industrial production rose 11.5% in
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production the April-June period, the first quarter of the fiscal year 2010/11, which was
index in %.
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) and
below the 15.0% expansion observed in the January-March period. Moreover,
FocusEconomics calculations. as a result of the slower growth in June, annual average growth in industrial
production ended the upward trend initiated a year ago, inching down from
12.4% in May to 12.3%.
Consensus Forecast panellists expect industrial production to expand 9.3% in

the current fiscal year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For the
FY 2011/12, the panel expects industrial production to expand 8.8%.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee recently stated that an economic expan-

sion of 8.5% in the current fiscal year, which will end in March 2011, would be
satisfactory. The government aims at reaching a sustained growth rate of 10%
by 2014. In the same vein, the Reserve Bank of India anticipates GDP will
expand 8.5% this current fiscal year.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate GDP to grow 8.3% this fiscal year,
which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For the financial
year 2011/12, the panel sees economic growth reaching 8.4%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates in July

In June, the consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI IW) added 1.16%
over the previous month, which was broadly unchanged from 1.18% increase
recorded in May. Despite the monthly rise, annual consumer price inflation
inched down from 13.9% in May to 13.7%.
The more recent and comprehensive wholesale price index seems to corrobo-
rate the notion of moderating inflation. In July, wholesale prices increased 1.04%
over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.23% price drop recorded in
Inflation | Wholesale Price Index June. Despite the monthly rise, annual wholesale inflation fell from 10.6% in
June to 10.0%, undershooting market expectations, which had anticipated
1.94
2.0 12.0 wholesale inflation would drop to only 10.4%. The figure marks, in fact, the
1.62
1.57 lowest inflation rate in six months. Nonetheless, the inflation trend continues to
1.5
1.16 1.13
8.0 pick up. Annual average wholesale price inflation increased for the eighth con-
1.04
1.0 0.88 0.89 % secutive month, rising nearly a full percentage point from 6.3% in June to 7.2%
0.75
% 4.0 % in July.
0.44
0.5
0.00 0.0
0.0 Inflation continues to hover close to double digits mainly fuelled by high prices
-0.04
Month-on-Month (left scale) Year-on-Year (right scale) -0.23

for food (July: +11.4% year-on-year) as well as for fuels (+14.3% yoy). How-
-0.5 -4.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul ever, food inflation appears to be starting to moderate, which helps to account
for the stabilisation of the wholesale price index.
Note: Monthly and annual variation of wholesale price index in %.
Source: Reserve Bank of India and FocusEconomics calculations.
The Central Bank expects wholesale price inflation to moderate to 6.0% by the
end of the current fiscal year, which will end in March 2011 (recently revised
from the previous 5.5% estimate).
Consensus Forecast panellists expect wholesale inflation to average 8.1% this

current fiscal year, which is up 0.3 percentage points over last month. For the
financial year 2011/12, the panel expects average wholesale inflation to mod-
erate to 5.4%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank raises interest rates again

At its most recent meeting on 27 July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided
to lift the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%, in a decision that was in
line with market expectations. The RBI also raised the reverse repurchase rate
by 50 basis points, from 4.00% to 4.50%. The move represented the fourth
interest rate hike in as many months.
Monetary authorities argued that controlling inflation has now become more
important than stimulating economic growth, with wholesale prices hovering
near double-digit territory for six months, as a result of surging food and fuel
prices. The Bank added that the recovery in the domestic economy remains
firmly in place and, in fact, is intensifying, even with a marginal contribution
from the important agricultural sector, which highlights the resilience of the
Indian economy.

The RBI also announced that it would change the periodicity of its monetary
policy meetings, in an attempt to adapt to a rapidly evolving macroeconomic
scenario as well as to avoid a large gap between policy reviews. The Bank will
now hold policy meetings every six weeks, instead of the previous three-month
period. The next policy meeting is scheduled for 16 September, and analysts
are currently divided regarding a further monetary tightening move, as recent
data from the industrial sector suggest that economic growth is cooling, while
inflation has fallen to a six-month low in July.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports remain strong

In June, exports rose 30.4% over the same month last year to reach USD 17.7
billion. The figure was down from the 35.1% expansion recorded in May. That
said, despite the slowdown, the monthly figure marked the sixth consecutive
month of double-digit growth rates in exports.
Merchandise Trade | USD bn
On a quarterly basis, exports expanded a strong 33.8% year-on-year in the

40
Trade Balance Exports Imports April-June period – the first quarter of the fiscal year 2010/11 – virtually un-
30
changed from the 33.4% increase recorded in the previous quarter. Further-
20
more, exports continue to creep towards pre-crisis levels, with the 3-month
sum of exports at USD 50.8 billion in June, still below the USD 56.9 billion
10
peak reached in July 2008 but well above the USD 37.3 billion trough in April
0 2009.
-10
Meanwhile, imports increased 23.0% year-on-year (May: +38.5% yoy) to USD

-20
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 28.3 billion. The monthly figure was led by oil imports, which increased 26.5%
over the same month last year. As a result of the monthly figures, the trade
Note: Monthly exports, imports and trade balance in USD billion. deficit narrowed from USD 11.3 billion in May to USD 10.6 billion in June.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
During the last twelve months exports have amounted to USD 183.6 billion.
The government is targeting exports to reach USD 200 billion this current fis-
cal year, which will end on March 2011. Consensus Forecast panellists antici-
pate exports will expand 19.9% this fiscal year and 18.6% in 2011/12.

Economic Indicators | 2005/06 - 2014/15
Annual Data 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Real Sector
Population (million) 1,099 1,118 1,137 1,156 1,175 1,195 1,215 1,235 1,256 1,277
Private Consumption (annual variation in % 8.5 8.3 9.7 6.8 4.3 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.2
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 15.3 14.3 15.2 4.0 7.2 11.8 12.2 13.2 12.9 12.5
Agriculture (annual variation in %) 5.2 3.7 4.7 1.6 0.2 - - - - -
Industry (annual variation in %) 9.3 12.7 9.5 3.9 9.3 - - - - -
Services (annual variation in %) 11.1 10.2 10.5 9.8 8.5 - - - - -
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 8.2 11.5 8.5 2.7 10.5 9.3 8.8 8.4 8.4 8.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.3 -3.6 -2.6 -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -4.7 -3.7 -3.3
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 4.4 6.7 6.2 9.1 12.3 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, annual average in %) 4.4 5.4 4.7 8.4 3.8 8.1 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.3
RBI Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 6.50 7.75 7.75 5.00 5.00 6.33 7.16 6.65 6.77 7.10
Stock Market (var. of BSE SENSEX in %) 42.3 46.7 47.1 -52.4 81.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (INR per USD, eop) 44.6 43.6 40.0 51.0 45.1 44.2 42.3 41.0 41.0 40.2
Exchange Rate (INR per USD, average) 44.3 45.3 40.3 46.0 47.4 44.7 43.3 41.6 41.0 40.6
External Sector
Current Account (% of GDP) -1.3 -1.1 -1.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.6 -2.4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.4
Current Account (USD bn) -9.9 -9.6 -17.0 -29.8 -32.2 -42.1 -45.5 -35.8 -36.7 -41.5
Trade Balance (USD bn) -41 -54 -87 -118 -102 -133 -157 -162 -169 -192
Exports (USD bn) 103 125 163 185 171 205 243 267 289 317
Imports (USD bn) 143 179 251 304 273 338 401 429 460 503
Inflation (WPI, annual average in %) 12.5 8.6 3.2 0.6 -0.1 5.0 10.2 11.0 9.1 8.0
RBI Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 9.00 6.50 5.00 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.70 6.05
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 12.0 17.7 16.3 14.7 14.5 16.5 11.3 7.1 - -
Inflation (WPI, mom variation in %) 1.94 0.44 0.89 0.00 1.16 1.62 1.13 -0.23 1.04 -
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 5.6 8.1 9.4 10.1 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.6 10.0 -

12 15
India Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12
Asia (ex Japan) Allianz 7.5 7.5
World
AnandRathi 6.5 9.0
10
BofA Merrill Lynch 8.1 8.0
6
Capital Econom ics 9.2 9.5
5
Crisil 8.0 -
0
0
India DBS Bank 8.8 8.5
Asia (ex Japan)
World
Goldm an Sachs 8.2 8.7
-6 -5
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 8.8 8.3
ING Financial Markets 8.2 9.0
JPMorgan 8.3 8.5
3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts Kotak Securities 8.1 7.8
10 10
Maximum Morgan Stanley 8.5 8.4
Consensus RBC Capital Markets 8.1 8.0
Minimum Standard Chartered Bank 8.1 8.5
9 State Bank of India 8.5 -
8 UBS 9.0 8.0
Summary
8 Minim um 6.5 7.5
Maxim um 9.2 9.5
6 Median 8.3 8.5
7 Consensus 8.3 8.4
Maximum
Consensus History
Minimum 30 days ago 8.2 8.5
4 6 60 days ago 8.2 8.5
90 days ago 8.2 8.4
5 | Consumption | % variation 6 | Investment | % variation Reserve Bank of India (July 2010) 8.5 -
IMF (July 2010) 9.4 8.4
12 30
India ADB (Mar. 2010) 8.2 8.7
India
20
8
10
Notes and sources
4
General:
0 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All real
sector data are from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme
Implementation (MOSPI) and the Ministry of Finance. See below for details.
0 -10
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.
Source: MOSPI.
8.0 14 4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2010 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.
2011 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.
7.5 12 7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
18 months.
last 18 months.
7.0 10 9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.
10 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18
months.
11 Industrial production, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18
6.5 8
months.
2010
12 Central government balance, % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance.
2011 13 Central government balance, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the
6.0 6 last 18 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Central government balance, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the
last 18 months.


Consumption Investment Industry Fiscal Balance
% variation % variation % variation % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
Allianz - - - - - - -5.5 -4.3
AnandRathi 6.3 6.5 12.0 16.0 6.1 7.2 -5.6 -4.3
BofA Merrill Lynch - - - - 8.5 8.8 - -
Capital Economics 8.0 7.0 12.0 10.0 - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 6.5 7.5 14.0 15.5 9.4 9.4 -5.4 -4.8
Credit Suisse 5.4 6.2 8.5 8.8 9.9 8.5 -5.1 -5.5
Crisil - - 12.5 - 8.6 - -5.0 -
Daiwa Capital Markets 8.9 8.6 9.7 10.1 9.7 10.4 -5.0 -4.8
DBS Bank - - - - 9.3 9.0 - -
Deutsche Bank - - 14.9 11.5 - - -5.8 -5.6
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - -
HSBC 7.0 6.3 16.0 13.0 11.1 6.6 -5.5 -4.8
ING Financial Markets 7.5 9.0 11.0 16.0 9.5 10.0 - -
JPMorgan - - - - 10.8 9.3 -5.1 -4.9
Kotak Securities 6.7 6.5 7.5 8.5 8.5 8.9 -5.3 -5.0
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - -7.6 -7.3
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - -6.0 -5.0
State Bank of India - - - - 9.7 - - -
UBS - - - - 9.9 8.8 -5.5 -4.8
Summary
Minimum 5.4 6.2 7.5 8.5 6.1 6.6 -7.6 -7.3
Maximum 8.9 9.0 16.0 16.0 11.1 10.4 -5.0 -4.3
Median 6.9 6.8 12.0 11.5 9.5 8.9 -5.5 -4.9
Consensus 7.0 7.2 11.8 12.2 9.3 8.8 -5.6 -5.1
History
30 days ago 7.3 7.6 11.8 12.2 9.3 8.9 -5.4 -4.8
60 days ago 7.3 7.7 12.1 12.7 9.3 8.9 -5.6 -4.9
90 days ago 7.2 7.7 11.5 12.7 9.3 8.8 -5.7 -4.9
9 | Industry | % variation 10 | Industry 2010 | evol. of forecasts 11 | Industry 2011 | evol. of forecasts
16 12 12
India Maximum Maximum
Asia (ex Japan) Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
10
12 10
8
8 8
4 6
4
0 2 4
1995 2000 2005 2010 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
12 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 13 | Fiscal Balance 2010 | evol. of fcst 14 | Fiscal Balance 2011 | evol. of fcst
4 -2 -2 Maximum
India Maximum Consensus
Asia (ex Japan) Consensus Minimum
World Minimum
0 -4 -4
-4 -6 -6
-8 -8 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

15 | Inflation | 1995 - 2014 | in % 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Inflation | ann. avg. variation of wholesale price index in %
12 15
Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12
India
Asia (ex Japan) Allianz - -
AnandRathi 6.9 4.5
9 10
BofA Merrill Lynch - -
Capital Economics - -
5
6
Crisil 8.8 -
3 0 Daiwa Capital Markets 7.3 4.2
DBS Bank 8.0 5.3
India
Asia (ex Japan) Deutsche Bank - -
0 -5 Goldman Sachs 7.5 6.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC - -
ING Financial Markets - -
JPMorgan - -
Kotak Securities 9.5 6.6
10 7
Morgan Stanley - -
Maximum
Consensus RBC Capital Markets - -
Minimum 6 Standard Chartered Bank 8.2 5.0
8
State Bank of India - -
5 UBS - -
6 Summary
4
Minimum 6.9 4.2
Maximum 9.5 6.6
4 Maximum Median 8.2 5.4
3 Consensus Consensus 8.1 5.4
Minimum
History
2 2 30 days ago 7.8 5.4
90 days ago 6.9 5.4
19 | CPI-IW | % variation 20 | Money | % variation
Reserve Bank of India (July 2010) 6.0 -
12 30
ADB (Mar. 2010) 5.0 5.5
9
20
10
3
0 0
1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
Notes and sources
General:
21 | 10-Year Bond | in % 22 | Stock Market | BSE SENSEX Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) , the Ministry
10 25,000 of Commerce and Industry and the Labour Bureau. RBI inflation forecast
refers to year-on-year wholesale inflation. See below for details. Forecasts
based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
20,000
15 Inflation, annual average variation in wholesale price index (WPI) in
8
%. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
16 Quarterly inflation, average variation in wholesale price index (WPI) in
15,000 %. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
6 18 Inflation, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
19 Consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW), in %. Source:
10,000
Labour Bureau.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. Source: RBI.
21 10-Year bond yield in %. Jan. 2005 until end of previous month.
4 5,000 Source: RBI.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 22 Daily index levels, BSE SENSEX. Jan. 2008 until end of previous
month. Source: Bombay Stock Exchange.

14 10
% INR per USD
12 Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
Allianz - - 44.5 44.0
8
AnandRathi 5.50 7.00 42.0 40.0
10
BofA Merrill Lynch 6.50 7.50 43.5 -
8 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - - 43.5 40.0
6
Credit Suisse 6.25 7.50 43.5 42.0
6 Crisil - - 43.8 -
Daiwa Capital Markets - - 45.0 43.3
DBS Bank 6.50 - 45.4 -
4 4
Deutsche Bank 6.75 - 44.0 42.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 6.25 6.75 45.5 43.5
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst ING Financial Markets 6.25 7.50 43.5 41.5
8 10 JPMorgan 6.50 - 43.0 -
Maximum Kotak Securities 6.50 7.00 47.0 46.0
Consensus Morgan Stanley - - 45.4 42.2
Minimum
6 8 Standard Chartered Bank 6.50 - 44.0 -
State Bank of India - - 44.0 -
UBS - - 46.5 41.0
Summary
4 6 Minimum 5.50 6.75 42.0 40.0
Maximum 6.75 7.50 47.0 46.0
Maximum Median 6.38 7.00 44.0 42.0
Consensus
Minimum
Consensus 6.33 7.16 44.2 42.3
2 4 History
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 30 days ago 6.30 7.16 43.9 42.1
60 days ago 6.18 7.21 43.6 41.6
90 days ago 6.15 7.04 43.4 41.5
27 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD
60 55
50
50
45
40
40
Notes and sources

30 35 General:
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. See below for details.
29 | INR/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | INR/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
60 50 Maximum 23 Interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop). Source: RBI.

Maximum Consensus 24 Quarterly interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop). Source:
Consensus Minimum
Minimum
RBI.
45
50
27 Exchange rate, INR per USD (eop). Source: RBI.
28 Quarterly exchange rate, INR per USD (eop). Source: RBI.
40 40 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: RBI.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Department
of Commerce.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: RBI.
34 Current account in USD billion, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
30 35 during the last 18 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Deparment of Commerce.
36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: RBI.


Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
Allianz -25.0 -35.0 - - - - - - 275 285
AnandRathi -33.6 -17.8 -113 -113 186 233 298 346 311 373
BofA Merrill Lynch -40.6 -36.3 -134 -162 228 248 362 410 299 -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. -35.1 -41.2 -128 -140 209 251 338 392 275 296
Credit Suisse -53.4 -34.5 -132 -138 202 247 334 385 315 364
Crisil - - -130 - 207 - 337 - - -
Daiwa Capital Markets -34.5 -36.5 -126 -141 218 248 344 389 273 288
DBS Bank -45.0 -57.0 -154 -192 202 234 356 426 310 350
Deutsche Bank -40.4 -48.9 -126 -142 179 197 305 339 293 299
Goldman Sachs -48.7 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC -64.0 -73.0 -144 -165 197 220 341 385 264 259
ING Financial Markets -38.0 -43.5 -133 -163 194 229 327 392 310 350
JPMorgan -52.5 -60.7 -146 -181 226 267 372 449 274 321
Kotak Securities -50.5 -83.5 -139 -170 208 261 347 430 284 299
Morgan Stanley -45.5 -43.9 -131 -154 - - - - - -
RBC Capital Markets -43.8 -28.6 - - - - - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank -35.5 -24.4 - - - - - - - -
State Bank of India -30.0 - -130 - 190 - 320 - 330 -
UBS -42.0 -63.0 -136 -185 221 280 357 465 308 365
Summary
Minimum -64.0 -83.5 -154 -192 179 197 298 339 264 259
Maximum -25.0 -17.8 -113 -113 228 280 372 465 330 373
Median -41.3 -42.4 -132 -162 205 247 339 392 296 310
Consensus -42.1 -45.5 -133 -157 205 243 338 401 294 321
History
30 days ago -41.3 -46.4 -133 -157 205 243 338 400 294 320
60 days ago -36.2 -36.7 -133 -153 200 234 333 387 306 342
90 days ago -33.1 -34.3 -130 -151 198 230 328 381 315 352
10 600 20
India Trade Balance
Asia (ex Japan) Exports
Imports
400 15
5
200 10
0
0 5
India
Asia (ex Japan)
-5 -200 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
-10 40 60
-20
20 40
-30
0 20
-40
2010 India
2011 India Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan)
-50 -20 0

Fact Sheet
General Data India in the Region

Official name: Republic of India
Capital: New Delhi (13.8 m) Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Other cities: Greater Mumbai (16.4 m)
Korea
Kolkata (13.2 m) 2% Other
Other
10% Korea
Bangalura (5.7m) 10%
16%
Area (km2): 3,166,414 Indonesia

Indonesia
7%
6%
Population (million, 2009): 1,156
China
Population density (per km2, 2009): 365.1 43%
Population growth rate (%, 2009): 1.4 India

15%
Life expectancy (years, 2009): 66.1
Illiteracy rate (%, 2001): 39.0 China
India
53%
Language: Hindi, English and 38%
21 other official languages

Measures: Metric system
Calendar: Year begins on 21 or
22 March of Gregorian calendar
Time: 5:30 hours ahead of GMT

100%
2005/06 2009/10
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 43.8 100%
Agriculture, forestry and
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 5.1 18.1 14.6 fishing
75%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 0.7 Manufacturing
16.1
75% 15.3
50%
Energy (2007) Trade, hotels, transport

and communication
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 13,048 25.1
26.5
25%
50%
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 19,094 Financing, insurance,
real estate and
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 762 15.1 17.2
business services
0%
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 568 25%
Community, social and
personal services
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 881 13.7 13.1
-25%
Other
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,845 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09
12.6 12.3 Private Consumption Government Consumption
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 1,386 0% Investment Net exports
Roadways (km): 3,320,410 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata USA USA EU-27
13% 7% 17%
EU-27
21% Japan
Political Data 3%
Prime Minister: Manmohan Singh Other Exports Imports China

36% Japan 15%
Last elections: 19 July 2007 3% Other
Next elections: July 2012 44%
China
Central Bank Governor: Duvvuri Subbarao 15% Other
Other Asia
Asia 14%
12%

Moody’s: Baa3 Stable
S&P: BBB- Stable Precious or
semiprecio
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Stable us stones
15% Mineral
Others
fuels and
30% oils
Mineral
35%
fuels and
oils
Strengths Weaknesses Exports 15% Imports
Others Electrical
• Huge domestic market • Excessive bureaucracy slows 61% machinery
Fertilisers
and
dynamism equipment
4%
Electrical
• Skilled labour force in key Nuclear 5% machinery
Nuclear Precious or
and semiprecio
industries, particularly software • Protectionist trade policy reactors
and equipment
reactors
us stones
and
8%
development approach machinery machinery 14%
4% 9%
• High catch-up growth potential • Weak infrastructure

• Low inflationary environment • Electricity/energy shortages

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia September 2010
Indonesia
Indonesia
Outlook improves
• The Indonesian economy, which was less affected by the global
downturn, as it is less dependant on the external sector than most of
its regional peers, which continues to pick up steam. In the second
quarter, the economy increased 6.2%, represented the fastest rate in
nearly two years.
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 • Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will grow 6.0%
Population (million): 211 226 240 this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
GDP (USD bn): 199 410 840
GDP per capita (USD): 940 1,810 3,490
projection. Next year, the panel expects the economy to expand 6.2%.
GDP growth (%): 4.6 5.6 6.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 -0.9 -1.2 • Annual inflation reached 6.2% in July, marking the highest reading
Inflation (%): 7.9 8.9 5.5
in over 15 months. The panel anticipates inflation will continue rising
External Debt (% of GDP): 71.1 37.3 21.6 in the months ahead and will average 4.8%, this year, which is 0.1
percentage points below last month’s forecast. Next year, the panel
sees inflation rising to 5.9%.
Gerardo Morán REAL SECTOR | Economic growth accelerates amid stronger domestic
Economist demand
In the second quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.2% over the
same quarter last year. The reading beat last month’s Consensus Forecast
panellists’ expectations of a 5.9% increase and came in ahead of the previous
quarter’s 5.7% growth pace. Furthermore, the reading represented the fastest
expansion tallied since the third quarter of 2008.
GDP by Type, Q2 2010 | variation in % The acceleration compared to the previous quarter was due to positive
developments in the domestic sector. Private consumption increased 5.0%
Imports 17.7 year-on-year (Q1: +3.9% yoy), which more than compensated for the 9.0%
Exports 14.6 contraction observed in government consumption. Moreover, investment
continued to grow robustly and added 8.0% (Q1: +7.8% yoy). In contrast, the
Investment 8.0
net contribution from the external sector to overall growth deteriorated and fell
GDP 6.2
from 1.0 percentage points in the first quarter to 0.4 percentage points.
Private
5.0
consumption
Domestic Demand 0.0

At the sector level, the acceleration over the previous quarter was broad-based,
Government
with all sectors improving with the exception of electricity, gas and water supply.
-9.0
consumption
The acceleration was led by the manufacturing sector, which accounts for nearly
-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 % 30.0
a quarter of GDP, and which increased 4.3% (Q1: +3.7% yoy). Nonetheless,
the largest contribution to growth came form the trade, hotel and restaurants
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations. sector, which expanded a robust 9.6% (Q1: +9.4% yoy).
The Central Bank expects the economy to grow 5.6% this year and to accelerate
further to between 6.0% and 6.5% in 2011. Consensus Forecast panellists
broadly share the Bank’s assessment and anticipate the economy to grow 6.0%
this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. Next
year, the panel expects economic growth to reach 6.2%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation soars amid higher food prices

In July, consumer prices jumped 1.57% over the previous month. The reading
came in well above June’s 0.97% price rise as well as market expectations,
which had prices increasing 1.10%. The sharp monthly price hike was almost
Inflation | Consumer Price Index entirely driven by higher food prices (+4.69% month-on-month), in particular
for rice, which has risen steadily in recent months. Owing to July’s high reading,
2.0 8.0
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale)
annual inflation soared from 5.0% in June to 6.2%, which represented the
1.57
1.5
highest level in over a year, lifting annual average inflation to 3.6%.
1.05 6.0
0.97
1.0 0.84 Going forward, the government announced it will sell 500,000 metric tons of
% %
0.45
0.56 rice at below market prices in an effort to contain inflation during the fasting
0.5 0.33 0.31 0.29
0.19 0.15 4.0 month of Ramadan, when Muslims usually spend more on food products, began
0.0 on 11 August. Nonetheless, inflation is likely to soar again in August as the
-0.03
-0.16 government increased electricity tariffs for the first time in seven years.
-0.5 2.0
Despite the sharp raise in inflation, at its most recent meeting on 4 August the
Central Bank left its current monetary policy stance unaltered for the twelfth
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS). consecutive month at 6.50%, in a decision broadly expected by the market.
The Bank has set an inflation target of 5% ±1% for this year and next, and
remains confident inflation will fall within range this year.
Consensus Forecast panellists broadly share the Bank’s assessment and expect
inflation to average 4.8% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last
month’s forecast. For next year, panellists see inflation rising to 5.9% by year-
end.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
Population (million) 220 223 226 229 231 234 237 240 243 246
GDP (USD bn) 272 345 410 486 537 650 749 837 927 1,038
Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 6.6 9.6 3.9 10.4 15.7 - - - - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. in %) 10.9 2.6 9.3 11.9 3.3 8.7 9.7 9.0 9.2 9.7
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 4.6 4.6 4.7 3.7 2.1 4.9 5.3 4.6 4.7 4.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.5 -1.0 -1.2 0.0 -1.6 -1.7 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9
Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 11.1 28.1 27.6 -0.9 8.3 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 10.5 13.1 6.0 9.8 5.0 4.8 5.9 6.0 5.6 5.2
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 16.3 13.5 13.4 25.9 4.6 - - - - -
BI Rate (%, eop) 12.75 9.75 8.00 9.25 6.50 6.94 7.55 7.73 7.63 7.47
Stock Market (variation of IDX in %) 16.2 55.3 52.1 -50.6 87.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, eop) 9,917 9,156 9,382 11,055 9,447 8,989 8,951 9,066 9,161 9,019
Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, average) 10,207 9,668 9,642 10,188 10,460 9,223 8,970 9,008 9,113 9,090
External Sector
Trade Balance (USD bn) 17.5 29.7 32.8 22.9 35.1 30.2 29.5 30.6 28.1 32.2
Exports (USD bn) 87 104 118 140 119 140 157 178 200 219
Imports (USD bn) 69 74 85 117 84 110 128 148 172 191
International Reserves (USD bn) 34.7 42.6 56.9 51.6 66.1 77.2 83.9 89.8 93.5 103
BI Rate (%, eop) 9.25 9.25 7.75 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.94
Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 3.8 3.4 5.3 4.0 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.9 - -
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 1.0 7.1 -3.6 -3.0 3.0 2.1 4.5 1.5 - -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) -0.03 0.33 0.84 0.31 -0.16 0.15 0.29 0.97 1.57 -

14 15
Indonesia Indonesia Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) ANZ 5.9 6.2
World World Bank Danam on Indonesia 5.6 6.2
7 10
BII 6.1 6.3
0 5
Danareksa Securities 6.2 6.4
-7 0
DBS Bank 6.0 5.8
Goldm an Sachs 5.8 6.0
-14 -5
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 6.0 6.0
ING 6.2 6.0
JPMorgan 6.2 5.7
3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts Mandiri Sekuritas 5.8 6.3
7 7 Morgan Stanley 6.0 6.5
OCBC Bank 6.1 6.1
RBC Capital Markets 6.0 6.5
6 UBS 6.0 6.0
5 Summary
Minim um 5.6 5.6
5 Maxim um 6.5 6.5
4 Median 6.0 6.2
Maximum Maximum
Consensus
Consensus 6.0 6.2
Consensus
Minimum Minimum History
3 4 30 days ago 5.9 6.1
60 days ago 5.8 6.0
90 days ago 5.8 6.1
5 | Consumption | % variation 6 | Investment | % variation Additional Forecasts
Central Bank (Aug. 2010) 5.6 6.0-6.5
15 30
IMF (July 2010) 6.0 6.2
ADB (July 2010) 6.0 6.0
10 15
5 0
0 -15
Notes and sources
-5 -30 General:
Indonesia Indonesia Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) real sector data are from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Central
-10 -45 Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: BPS.
6.0 12
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.
5.5 10 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.
7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
last 18 months.
5.0 8 last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BPS.
11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: BI.
4.5 6
12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during
the last 18 months.
2010 2011 13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
4.0 4 18 months.
14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011
forecasts during the last 18 months.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank Danamon Indonesia 5.0 4.9 9.0 11.9 - - 7.6 7.1 -1.7 -1.5
BII 5.3 5.3 9.4 9.7 4.3 4.5 7.7 7.5 -1.7 -1.2
Capital Economics 6.5 6.0 8.0 8.0 - - - - -1.5 -0.8
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.8 5.1 8.3 11.0 - - 7.0 6.8 -1.1 -1.5
Credit Suisse 5.0 5.0 7.3 8.0 - - - - -2.0 -1.8
Daiwa Capital Markets 5.8 5.9 10.4 11.2 5.1 5.3 - - -0.9 -0.8
Danareksa Securities 4.8 5.0 9.8 12.9 4.3 4.4 7.4 7.2 - -
DBS Bank - - - - - - - - -0.9 -0.9
Deutsche Bank 4.6 6.0 8.7 8.8 4.0 8.0 - - -1.7 -1.8
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -2.2 -
HSBC 4.9 5.1 9.0 9.1 5.9 4.7 8.0 8.0 -1.6 -1.0
ING 6.2 5.8 9.7 10.5 5.7 5.0 - - -1.6 -1.5
JPMorgan - - - - - - - - -2.0 -1.0
Mandiri Sekuritas 5.2 5.3 8.6 10.7 - - - - -2.1 -1.5
Morgan Stanley - - 8.0 10.0 - - - - -2.0 -1.5
OCBC Bank 5.2 5.6 8.0 6.0 - - 8.5 8.0 -1.5 -1.2
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - -2.0 -1.0
UBS 5.1 5.8 7.8 7.8 - - - - -1.6 -2.0
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - 7.5 7.2 -2.0 -1.5
Summary
Minimum 4.6 4.9 7.3 6.0 4.0 4.4 7.0 6.8 -2.2 -2.0
Maximum 6.5 6.0 10.4 12.9 5.9 8.0 8.5 8.0 -0.9 -0.8
Median 5.1 5.3 8.7 9.8 4.7 4.9 7.6 7.2 -1.7 -1.5
Consensus 5.3 5.4 8.7 9.7 4.9 5.3 7.7 7.4 -1.7 -1.3
History
30 days ago 5.2 5.3 8.7 9.6 4.8 5.4 7.8 7.5 -1.7 -1.4
60 days ago 5.3 5.4 8.6 9.4 4.7 5.4 7.8 7.6 -1.7 -1.3
90 days ago 5.2 5.4 8.7 9.5 4.7 5.4 7.8 7.6 -1.8 -1.3

20 12 3
10 9 0
0 6 -3
-10 3 -6
Indonesia
Indonesia Indonesia Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) World
-20 0 -9
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
6 10 -0.8
2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
5 9 -1.2
4 8 -1.6
3 7 -2.0

60 15
Indonesia
ANZ - -
Asia (ex Japan)
Bank Danam on Indonesia 4.6 6.2
45 10
BII 5.0 5.7
30 5
Danareksa Securities - -
15 0
DBS Bank 5.1 6.5
Indonesia Deutsche Bank 5.0 6.5
Asia (ex Japan) Goldm an Sachs 5.1 5.0
0 -5
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 4.6 6.0
ING 4.0 4.5
JPMorgan 4.4 5.4
17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst Mandiri Sekuritas - -
10 12
Maximum
Morgan Stanley 5.0 5.7
Consensus OCBC Bank 5.0 6.7
Minimum RBC Capital Markets - -
9 UBS 5.0 7.0
6 Summary
Minim um 4.0 4.5
6 Maxim um 5.4 7.0
4 Median 5.0 6.0
Maximum
Consensus Consensus 4.8 5.9
Minimum History
2 3 30 days ago 4.7 5.8
60 days ago 4.8 5.9
90 days ago 4.9 5.8
19 | Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation Additional Forecasts
Central Bank (Aug. 2010) 5.8-6.0 -
30 40
IMF (Apr. 2010) 4.7 5.8
ADB (Mar. 2010) 5.6 6.2
30
20
20
10
10
0 -10
2000 2003 2006 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Notes and sources
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | IDX General:
800 3,500 real sector data are from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Central
Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
3,000
15 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in
600 %. Source: BPS.
2,500
(CPI) in %. Source: BPS.
2,000
400
19 Producer price index, annual variation in % (eop). 2000-2009.
Source: BPS.
1,500
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: BI.
21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end of
1,000
200
22 Daily index levels, IDX. From Jan. 2008 until end of previous
month. Source: Indonesia Stock Exchange.

50 10
% IDR per USD
9
ANZ 6.75 7.75 9,500 9,250
Bank Danamon Indonesia 6.50 7.50 9,150 9,325
30
BII 6.50 7.50 9,150 9,355
8
Capital Economics 8.00 8.50 8,750 8,600
20 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 7.00 7.50 9,050 9,125
Credit Suisse 6.75 7.25 9,000 9,000
7
10 Daiwa Capital Markets - - 8,700 8,500
Danareksa Securities 6.50 6.75 9,286 9,430
DBS Bank 7.00 - 9,100 -
0 6
Deutsche Bank 7.25 - 8,925 8,700
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Goldman Sachs - - 8,700 8,400
HSBC 6.50 7.50 8,800 -
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst ING 6.50 7.00 9,050 9,000
10 10 JPMorgan 6.50 7.00 8,900 9,300
Mandiri Sekuritas 7.00 7.50 8,927 9,083
Morgan Stanley - - - -
OCBC Bank 7.00 7.50 8,843 8,598
8 8 RBC Capital Markets 7.00 8.00 8,800 8,500
Standard Chartered Bank 7.00 8.00 8,800 8,500
UBS 7.50 8.00 9,400 9,500
United Overseas Bank 7.75 - 8,950 -
6 6 Summary
Minimum 6.50 6.75 8,700 8,400
Maximum Maximum Maximum 8.00 8.50 9,500 9,500
Consensus Consensus
Median 7.00 7.50 8,939 9,000
Minimum Minimum
4 4 Consensus 6.94 7.55 8,989 8,951
30 days ago 6.93 7.52 9,032 9,016
60 days ago 7.03 7.57 9,036 9,086
27 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD 90 days ago 7.08 7.63 9,071 9,079
12,000 12,000
9,000 11,000
6,000 10,000
3,000 9,000
Notes and sources

0 8,000 General:
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
real sector data are from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the
Central Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts
29 | IDR/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | IDR/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
15,000 Maximum 12,000 23 Interest rate, BI Rate in % (eop). Source: BI.

Maximum
Consensus Consensus 24 Quarterly interest rate, BI Rate in % (eop). Source: BI.
Minimum Minimum 25 Interest rate, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
11,000
27 Exchange rate, IDR per USD (eop). Source: BI.
12,000
28 Quarterly exchange rate, IDR per USD (eop). Source: BI.
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18
10,000 months.
months.
9,000
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BPS.
9,000 32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BPS.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BI.
6,000 8,000
35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.
36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: BI.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank Danamon Indonesia 7.0 4.0 35.3 36.4 140 158 105 122 82.3 92.1
BII 4.6 4.1 16.5 12.4 149 164 133 151 80.0 88.6
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 7.1 4.6 34.7 27.7 145 163 111 136 85.1 91.3
Credit Suisse 4.5 2.0 34.3 35.7 143 160 109 125 75.6 80.6
Daiwa Capital Markets 6.5 6.1 29.8 30.7 120 136 91 105 68.7 74.0
Danareksa Securities 8.7 7.6 32.4 34.3 136 159 103 125 65.6 73.3
DBS Bank 5.0 4.0 - - - - - - 79.0 86.0
Deutsche Bank 10.5 14.3 29.1 33.2 118 128 89 94 77.0 81.0
Goldman Sachs 13.7 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 6.5 8.1 33.8 33.7 140 149 106 116 75.2 82.5
ING 7.0 4.0 33.0 29.0 149 172 116 143 78.0 88.0
JPMorgan 3.1 -0.2 25.6 27.2 141 163 115 135 73.6 78.6
Mandiri Sekuritas 7.0 2.6 30.1 29.0 148 177 118 148 80.0 83.0
Morgan Stanley 8.9 6.7 29.9 28.2 - - - - - -
OCBC Bank 10.5 11.0 17.9 15.0 146 160 128 145 80.0 90.0
RBC Capital Markets 6.5 - - - - - - - - -
UBS 9.0 7.0 40.0 40.7 146 156 106 115 81.1 86.1
Summary
Minimum 3.1 -0.2 16.5 12.4 118 128 89 94 65.6 73.3
Maximum 13.7 14.3 40.0 40.7 149 177 133 151 85.1 92.1
Median 7.0 4.6 31.2 29.9 143 160 109 125 78.5 84.5
Consensus 7.4 5.6 30.2 29.5 140 157 110 128 77.2 83.9
History
30 days ago 7.2 5.6 30.6 30.2 140 157 109 127 76.7 83.2
60 days ago 7.6 6.7 29.3 29.4 139 156 110 126 75.4 82.5
90 days ago 8.2 7.1 28.7 30.0 133 151 104 120 74.2 81.0
9 250 25
Indonesia Trade Balance Indonesia
Exports Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Imports
6 200 20
3 150 15
0 100 10
-3 50 5
-6 0 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
12 30 200
2010 2011 Indonesia
Asia (ex Japan)
15 150
8
0 100
4
-15 50
Indonesia
Asia (ex Japan)
0 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Indonesia in the Region

Official name: Republic of Indonesia
Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Jakarta (12.3 m)
Korea
Other cities: Bandung (5.7 m) 2%
Malaysia
Surabaya (3.9 m) 1%
Other Malaysia Korea Other
9% 2% 10% 14%
Medan (3.9 m)
Area (km2): 1,919,440
Population (million, 2009 est.): 231 India
China
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) 121 43%
15%
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 1.2

Indonesia
38%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 9.6 6% China
53%
Language: Bahasa Indonesia
Indonesia
Time: 7 hours ahead of GMT 7%

100%
2004 2009
Agriculture
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 8.7 15.2 13.6
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 0.7 10.6

8.3 Mining and Quarring
75%
75% 8.8
5.4
Transport &
Energy (2007) 8.9 9.6
Communication 50%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 10,930 16.3 16.9 Finance, Real Rstate &
50% Business Services
25%
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 134 Trade Hotel &
Restaurants
28.0 26.2
Manufacturing Industry
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1,043 0%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,243 15.5 16.7 Other 2003 2005 2007 2009
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 402 0% Investment Net exports
Roadways (km): 437,759 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Banjarmasin, Jakarta EU-27 EU-27
12% USA 7% Japan
5%
USA 10%
10% Japan
19%
Other
Political Data 20% China
15%
President: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Other Exports Imports
18% China
Last elections: 8 July 2009 10%
Next elections: 2014
Central Bank Governor: Darmin Nasution
Other Other
Asia Asia
31% 43%

Moody’s: Ba2 Positive
S&P: BB Positive Consumer
Manufacturing
Goods
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable 63%
7%
Oil and
Capital
Gas
Goods
16%
21%
Strengths Weaknesses
Exports Agriculture Imports
4%
• Extensive natural resources • Widespread corruption deters
foreign investment Mining &
• Large domestic market Other
17% Raw Materials
• Weak legal framework and Others
• Diverse manufacturing sector 72%
• Guerilla activity poses
security threat

FOCUSECONOMICS Korea September 2010
Korea
Korea
Outlook improves
• Tensions with North Korea are growing, as the United States and
South Korea conducted an 11-day military drill in the Sea of Japan in
mid-August. Moreover, the U.S. announced further exercises for the
beginning of September.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages • Industrial production growth moderated in July but exceeded mar-
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 ket expectations. Consensus Forecast panellists remain upbeat and
Population (million): 47.6 48.4 49.1 have revised their forecast to the upside, seeing the economy grow-
GDP (USD bn): 596 922 1,234
ing 5.8% this year, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s fore-
GDP growth (%): 5.4 3.3 4.6 cast. For next year, panellists expect growth to moderate to 4.3%.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 1.4 0.8 0.7
Inflation (%): 3.2 3.0 3.0
• In July, inflation remained unchanged at June’s 2.6%. For the time
External Debt (% of GDP): 25.2 35.0 34.7 being, monetary authorities decided to refrain from raising interest
rates. Panellists expect inflation to average 2.9% this year and 3.1%
next year.
Armando Ciccarelli REAL SECTOR | Industrial production beats market expectations

Economist In June, industrial production rose 16.9% over the same month last year. The
figure was down from the revised 21.7% increase (previously reported: 21.5%)
recorded in May but came in slightly above market expectations of a 16.6%
rise.
The slowdown over the previous month was mainly driven by a moderation in
manufacturing. Production in this category, which accounts for the bulk of in-
Industrial Production | variation in % dustrial output, increased 17.4% annually, which was down from the 22.4%
increase observed in May. Meanwhile, mining rose 4.3%, contrasting the 10.7%
8.0 24.0
MoM s.a. (left scale) Annual Average (right scale)
fall recorded in May and, finally, electricity and gas improved slightly compared
5.55 to the previous month, growing 7.7% (May: +7.5% yoy).
4.15 16.0
4.0 3.40
2.22 2.38
2.71 A month-on-month comparison corroborates the moderation suggested by the
1.77 1.87 1.57
% 8.0 annual figures, as industrial production grew 1.43% over the previous month
0.22 %
0.0
0.00 on a seasonally adjusted basis, which was down from the 2.71% increase
0.0 recorded in May.
-1.29
-2.97
-4.0 -8.0 Based on monthly data, industrial production expanded 19.5% in the second
quarter over the same period last year, coming short of the 25.8% expansion
recorded in the previous quarter. That said, annual average variation in indus-
Note: Seasonally adjusted month-on-month and annual average changes of
industrial production index in %. trial production rose from 14.4% in May to 16.1%, marking the strongest read-
Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS and FocusEconomics calculations.
ing since December 2000.
Consensus Forecast participants lifted their estimates for full-year 2010 indus-
trial output growth by 0.1 percentage points over last month to the current
13.6%. Panellists expect industrial production to expand 7.7% next year, which
is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence drops in August

In August, the Consumer Survey Index (CSI) published by the Bank of Korea
dropped to 110 points, down from July’s 112. However, at the current level
consumer confidence remained above the 100-point threshold that separates
optimism from pessimism for the thirteenth consecutive month, suggesting that
consumption should continue to support the recovery in the coming months.
While households’ assessment on their living standards remained unchanged

over the previous month, the evaluation of the domestic economic situation
Consumer Confidence
deteriorated. Moreover, consumers lowered their expectations both about their
120 living standards in the next six months as well as with regards to the situation
of the general economy.
110
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation remains unchanged in July

Points
100 In July, consumer prices rose 0.35% over the previous month. The reading
contrasted both the 0.17% decline recorded in June as well as market expec-
90 tations which saw prices falling 0.07%. The main drivers behind the monthly
price rise were higher prices for culture and recreation as well as for food and
80 alcoholic beverages.
Despite the monthly price increase, annual inflation remained unchanged at

Note: Consumer Survey Index (CSI). An index value above 100 indicates an
optimistic outlook while a value below 100 indicates a pessimistic outlook.
June’s 2.6%. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as fresh
Source: Bank of Korea (BoK). food and energy, added 0.17% over the previous month. Mirroring the devel-
opments in the general index, annual core inflation remained unchanged at
June’s 1.7%. The three-year average inflation rate, which is the basis of the
Central Bank’s monetary policy, remained stable at 3.4% for a seventh con-
secutive month, thus exceeding the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3.0% but
remaining within the tolerance range of ±1.0 percentage points.
Consensus Forecast panellists expect inflation to average 2.9% in 2010, which

is unchanged from last month’s forecast. According to the panel, average infla-
tion will inch up to 3.1% in 2011, which is also unchanged from last month’s
projection.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank keeps policy rate unchanged
At the most recent monetary policy meeting on 12 August, the Central Bank
0.6 4.0
0.52
decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, in a decision widely ex-
0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 pected by market analysts, which considered last month’s decision to raise
0.3
0.18
3.0
interest rates only as a fine tuning towards “normal” interest rate levels.
0.09 0.09
0.0
% In its monetary policy statement, the Central Bank suggests upward inflation
%
-0.17 2.0 risks in the months to come as a consequence of demand-pull pressures as-
-0.3 -0.26 sociated with the upturn in economic activity. In fact, recovery in the domestic
economy is expected to continue, as external risks due to instability in the
-0.6 1.0 financial markets in the wake of the Greek debt crisis have now waned.
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of cons. price index in %. According to market analysts, the phrasing of the monetary statement sug-
Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS and FocusEconomics calculations.
gests future interest rate hikes. In particular, there is no reference to maintain-
ing an accommodative policy going forward and the reference to “price stabil-
ity” precedes that to “economic growth”, thus suggesting a shift in priorities.
Therefore, the market expects the Central Bank to raise interest rates by a
further 25 basis points in next meeting on 9 September.
Consensus Forecast panellists expect on average the policy rate to end the
year at 2.65%. For next year, panellists forecast on average the policy rate to
end the year at 3.43%

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account surplus expands in the second

quarter
In the second quarter, the current account incurred a surplus of USD 10.3
billion. The reading was down from the of the USD 13.1 million surplus regis-
Current Account Balance | USD billion
tered in the same quarter the year before but marked a strong improvement
compared to the USD 1.3 billion surplus observed in the previous quarter.
15.0
13.1
The increase over the preceding quarter reflected a higher surplus in the trade
10.4 10.6 10.3
balance, which rose from USD 7.4 billion in the first quarter to USD 15.7 billion
10.0
in the second. Both exports and imports accelerated compared to the previous
quarter. Exports increased 34.6% annually in the second quarter (Q1: +34.1%
year-on-year) while imports rose 45.7% (Q1: +37.7% yoy).
5.0
1.3 Despite the improvement in quarterly figures, the moving annual current ac-
0.0
count balance narrowed to a USD 53.3 billion surplus, down from the USD
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 55.3 billion surplus recorded in the first quarter. Consensus Forecast panellists
expect the annual current account surplus to narrow further to US$ 17.7 billion
Note: Quarterly current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Bank of Korea (BoK).
this year.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports continue to expand, albeit at slower rate

In July, exports rose 28.3% over the same month last year to reach USD 40.9
billion, according to the latest data released by Korea Customs Services (KCS).
The figure was down from the 30.2% expansion recorded in June. However,
despite the slowdown, the monthly figure marked the ninth consecutive double-
digit increase in exports after having contracted for a full year.
Merchandise Trade | USD bn
The July increase confirms the strong recovery of the external sector, with
50 export figures outperforming pre-crisis levels in nominal terms, as the three-
Trade Balance Exports Imports
month average topped a record USD 40.6 billion in July, above the USD 39.2
40
billion peak previously reached in July 2008 and, in fact, the highest level since
30
records began in 1990.
20
According to the Ministry of Knowledge Economy (MKE), the July reading was
10
driven by strong increases in exports of semiconductors, which increased 70.6%
0 over the previous year, and by a 55.9% annual rise in exports of automobile
-10
parts.
Meanwhile, according to KCS figures, imports increased 28.0% year-on-year

Note: Monthly exports, imports and trade balance in USD billion.
Source: Korea Customs Services (KCS). in July (June: +38.0% yoy), reaching USD 35.4 billion. As a result of the monthly
figures, the trade surplus fell from USD 6.5 billion in June to USD 5.5 billion in
July.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate exports will expand 22.3% this year
and 10.9% in 2011

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 845 952 1,049 931 833 998 1,115 1,240 1,353 1,464
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.6 4.7 5.1 1.3 0.2 4.4 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.8
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -0.2 6.3 4.2 4.7 4.3 4.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 6.3 8.4 6.9 3.4 -0.8 14.1 7.8 7.1 6.2 6.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.4 0.4 3.5 1.2 -1.7 -0.4 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.5
Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 3.3 11.7 -14.7 4.5 17.8 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average var. in %) 2.8 2.2 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.2
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %) 1.8 2.1 2.4 5.6 2.2 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 1.5 0.3 3.6 5.6 1.8 - - - - -
Overnight Call Rate %, eop 3.70 4.49 4.99 3.27 2.00 2.65 3.43 3.64 3.63 3.40
Stock Market (variation of KOSPI in %) 54.0 4.0 32.3 -40.7 49.7 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, eop) 1,012 930 936 1,260 1,165 1,136 1,078 1,061 1,038 1,045
Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, average) 1,024 955 929 1,102 1,277 1,152 1,107 1,070 1,050 1,042
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.8 0.6 0.6 -0.6 5.1 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 15.0 5.4 5.9 -5.8 42.7 17.7 13.1 12.8 11.1 10.4
Exports (USD bn) 289 332 379 433 374 457 507 553 605 674
Imports (USD bn) 256 304 351 427 317 424 480 528 581 646
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.3 -3.3 -4.3 -2.2 1.0 6.0 8.1 7.2 4.2 4.3
Inflation (CPI, annual average var. in %) 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.2 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.9 3.2
Overnight Call Rate %, eop 5.21 3.27 1.77 1.93 1.99 2.00 2.01 2.00 2.39 2.65
Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, eop) 1,207 1,260 1,384 1,274 1,178 1,165 1,131 1,222 1,147 1,136
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 18.1 34.2 37.0 18.9 22.7 20.1 21.7 17.1 15.5 -
Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 3.3 3.5 5.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 -
Consum. Confid. Index (100-point threshold) 113 113 113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110
Business Confid. Index (100-point threshold) 109.0 105.9 103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.18 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.52 0.09 -0.17 0.35 -
Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, eop) 1,163 1,165 1,162 1,160 1,131 1,108 1,200 1,222 1,183 1,189

12 14 Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
ANZ 5.9 3.9
6 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 5.5 4.3
7
0
DBS Bank 6.2 3.9
0
Goldman Sachs 5.3 4.6
-6
Korea HSBC 5.8 4.3
Korea
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) ING 7.1 4.8
World World
-12 -7
JPMorgan 5.9 4.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 KERI 6.1 -
Korea Invest. & Securities 5.0 4.0
LG 5.0 -
8 6
SERI 5.1 -
Standard Chartered Bank 6.0 4.1
6 5
UBS 6.0 3.3
Woori I&S 5.6 4.6
4 4
Summary
Minimum 5.0 3.3
2 Maximum 3
Maximum 7.1 5.2
Consensus Maximum Median 5.9 4.2
Minimum Consensus
Consensus 5.8 4.3
Minimum
0 2 History
60 days ago 5.5 4.3
90 days ago 5.3 4.3
16 20 Central Bank (July 2010) 5.9 4.5
IMF (July 2010) 5.7 5.0
10 ADB (July 2010) 5.5 4.6
8
0 Notes and sources

-10
General:
-8
-20 sector data are from the Korea National Statistics Office (KOSTAT), Korean
Korea Statistical Information Service (KOSIS), Ministry of Finance and Economy
Korea
Asia (ex Japan) and the Bank of Korea (BoK). See below for details. Forecasts based on
Asia (ex Japan)
-16 -30 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BoK
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts Source: BoK.
5 7
2010
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: BoK.
2011 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: BoK.
6 7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
4 18 months.
last 18 months.
5
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.
3 11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance
4 and Economy.
2010 12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
2011
last 18 months.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18
2 3 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 4.5 2.5 6.0 4.0 - - 2.8 2.5 0.5 1.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.1 4.0 5.4 4.0 17.6 8.7 3.6 3.3 -0.3 0.3
Credit Suisse 4.5 4.0 8.4 4.5 - - 3.0 2.5 - -
Daiwa Capital Markets 6.1 4.8 8.4 6.0 14.4 6.1 - - -0.2 0.9
DBS Bank - - - - - - 3.1 3.0 - -
Deutsche Bank 3.4 2.5 5.5 2.3 - - 3.2 3.4 -0.1 -0.2
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -0.7 -
HSBC 3.4 3.2 5.4 4.7 14.4 10.5 3.1 3.0 - -
ING - - - - 11.2 6.7 - - -0.2 0.4
JPMorgan - - - - 16.0 8.2 3.5 3.2 -0.5 0.5
KERI 4.2 - - - - - 3.8 - - -
Korea Invest. & Securities 4.4 3.5 6.3 5.2 - - 3.3 3.2 - -
LG 4.5 - 4.7 - 12.1 - 3.2 - - -
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - -0.5 -0.2
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - 3.3 - - -
SERI 3.7 - - - - - 3.6 - - -
UBS 3.8 2.8 6.5 2.7 - - - - - -
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - 3.4 3.1 - -
Woori I&S 5.8 4.5 6.1 4.3 13.0 6.4 3.3 3.2 -1.5 -0.5
Summary
Minimum 3.4 2.5 4.7 2.3 11.2 6.1 2.8 2.5 -1.5 -0.5
Maximum 6.1 4.8 8.4 6.0 17.6 10.5 3.8 3.4 0.5 1.0
Median 4.3 3.5 6.1 4.3 14.4 7.5 3.3 3.2 -0.3 0.3
Consensus 4.4 3.5 6.3 4.2 14.1 7.8 3.3 3.0 -0.4 0.3
History
30 days ago 4.3 3.5 6.1 4.4 13.5 7.7 3.3 3.0 -0.9 0.0
60 days ago 4.2 3.7 5.6 4.6 12.0 7.1 3.3 3.1 -0.8 0.1
90 days ago 4.0 3.6 5.2 4.5 10.2 7.1 3.5 3.2 -1.5 -0.5

24 9 4
16
6 0
3 -4
0 Korea
Korea Korea Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan)
-8 0 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
16 4.5 2
2010 2010 2010

2011 2011 2011
12 4.0 0
8 3.5 -2
4 3.0 -4

15 | Inflation | 1995-2004 | in % 16 | Inflation | Q1 07 - Q4 11 | in % Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %
12 8
Korea ANZ - -
Asia (ex Japan)
8 4
DBS Bank 2.9 3.1
4 0 Deutsche Bank 2.9 3.9
Korea HSBC 2.7 3.1
Asia (ex Japan)
ING 2.4 2.7
0 -4 JPMorgan 3.0 3.5
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 KERI 2.9 -
Korea Invest. & Securities 2.7 2.9
17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst LG 2.8 -
5 4.0
Maximum Maximum RBC Capital Markets - -
Consensus Consensus SERI 3.1 -
Minimum Minimum
4
3.5 Standard Chartered Bank 2.7 2.8
UBS 2.7 2.6
3.0 Woori I&S 3.0 3.3
2 Summary
Minimum 2.4 2.6
2.5 Maximum 3.5 3.9
1
Median 2.9 3.1
Consensus 2.9 3.1
0 2.0 History
30 days ago 2.9 3.1
60 days ago 3.0 3.2
19 | Core and Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation 90 days ago 3.0 3.1
6 60
Core Price Index
Central Bank (July 2010) 2.8 3.4
PPI IMF (Apr. 2010) 2.9 3.0
ADB (Mar. 2010) 3.0 3.0
4 30
2 0
0 -30
Notes and sources
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
General:
21 | 10-Year Bond | in % 22 | Stock Market | KOSPI
monetary sector data are from the Korea National Statistics Office
7.5 2,000 (KOSTAT), Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS), Korea Exchange
(KRX) and the Bank of Korea (BoK). See below for details. Forecasts based
on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
6.5 15 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in

1,500 %. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS
%. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.
5.5
1,000 19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 2004-
4.5 2009. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: BoK.
21 10-year bond yield in %. Jan 2002 until end of previous month.
3.5 500
Source: BoK.
22 Daily index levels, KOSPI. Jan. 2008 until end of previous month.
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
Source: KRX.

23 | Interest Rate | 1995-2004| in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07 - Q4 11 | in % Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
24 6 % KRW per USD
Korea Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011
Asia (ex Japan)
ANZ - - 1,345 1,200
Capital Economics 3.00 3.50 1,050 1,000
16 4 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - - 1,150 1,060
Credit Suisse 2.75 4.25 1,120 1,050
Daiwa Capital Markets 2.50 2.75 1,100 1,060
DBS Bank 3.00 - 1,150 -
8 2
Deutsche Bank 3.00 - 1,180 1,150
Goldman Sachs - - 1,100 1,050
HSBC 2.50 3.50 1,130 -
ING 2.25 3.75 1,200 1,150
0 0
JPMorgan 2.50 3.50 1,150 1,120
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
KERI - - - -
Korea Invest. & Securities - - 1,060 1,050
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst LG 2.50 - 1,070 -
6 6 Morgan Stanley - - - -
Maximum RBC Capital Markets 2.75 3.25 1,050 1,000
Consensus SERI 2.50 - 1,100 -
Minimum
5 Standard Chartered Bank 2.50 3.50 1,140 1,050
4 UBS 2.75 2.75 1,275 1,175
United Overseas Bank 2.75 - 1,160 -
4 Woori I&S 2.50 3.50 1,050 980
Summary
2
Minimum 2.25 2.75 1,050 980
3
Maximum 3.00 4.25 1,345 1,200
Maximum Median 2.50 3.50 1,130 1,055
Consensus Consensus 2.65 3.43 1,136 1,078
Minimum
History
0 2
30 days ago 2.65 3.42 1,133 1,076
60 days ago 2.70 3.50 1,095 1,042
90 days ago 2.68 3.47 1,071 1,021
27 | Exchange Rate | KRW per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | KRW per USD
1,800 1,400
1,400 1,200
1,000 1,000
600 800
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Notes and sources
General:
29 | KRW/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | KRW/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the Bank of Korea (BoK).
1,600 1,600
Maximum Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Consensus Maximum
Minimum Consensus
Minimum 23 Interest rate, Overnight Call Rate in % (eop).
1,400 1,400 24 Quarterly interest rate, Overnight Call Rate in % (eop).
27 Exchange rate, KRW per USD (eop).
1,200 1,200
28 Quarterly exchange rate, KRW per USD (eop).
1,000 1,000 31 Current account balance as % of GDP.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn.
33 International reserves, months of imports.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 35 Exports, annual variation in %.
36 External debt as % of GDP.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 23.1 16.0 35.0 24.0 467 499 432 475 313 330
Credit Suisse 14.9 6.5 42.1 37.9 479 551 437 513 293 311
Daiwa Capital Markets 29.3 24.4 44.6 38.1 476 526 432 488 284 305
DBS Bank 18.0 9.0 21.0 12.0 463 507 442 495 298 316
Deutsche Bank 10.1 5.4 34.1 26.3 462 514 428 487 287 301
Goldman Sachs 15.3 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 15.4 12.6 39.1 38.0 460 499 421 461 320 368
ING 23.0 20.0 41.0 43.0 454 518 413 475 285 300
JPMorgan 18.6 3.9 36.7 22.6 431 488 394 466 290 308
KERI 20.0 - 42.6 - 464 - 421 - - -
Korea Invest. & Securities 13.2 10.7 19.4 12.7 431 490 411 478 - -
LG 12.4 - 16.3 - 444 - 428 - - -
Morgan Stanley 19.1 7.8 36.5 28.6 - - - - - -
RBC Capital Markets 13.5 17.5 - - - - - - - -
SERI 16.1 - 24.0 - 453 - 429 - - -
UBS 24.0 30.0 34.4 27.4 454 473 420 445 - -
Woori I&S 19.0 12.0 24.8 15.0 459 510 435 495 276 279
Summary
Minimum 10.1 3.9 16.3 12.0 431 473 394 445 276 279
Maximum 29.3 30.0 44.6 43.0 479 551 442 513 320 368
Median 18.0 11.6 35.0 26.8 460 507 428 478 290 308
Consensus 17.7 13.1 32.8 27.1 457 507 424 480 294 313
History
30 days ago 18.0 13.3 33.1 27.2 454 507 421 480 293 312
60 days ago 16.8 11.2 31.9 24.8 447 500 416 475 289 303
90 days ago 16.8 11.4 31.3 25.1 436 487 405 462 292 310
12 900 20
Trade Balance Korea
Imports
600 15
6
300 10
0
0 5
Korea
Asia (ex Japan)
-6 -300 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
30 45 60
2010
2011 30
20 40
15
0
10 20
-15 Korea
Korea Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan)
0 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Korea in the Region
Official name: Republic of Korea Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Seoul (9.6 m)
Other cities: Pusan (4.6 m) Korea
2% Korea Other
Daegu (3.2 m) Other
10%
10% 16%
Area (km2): 99,268
Indonesia
Population (million, 2009 est.): 48.6 7% Indonesia
6%
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.): 489 China
43%
India
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 78.7 15%
Language: Korean India China
38% 53%

100%
2004 2009
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 99.2 100% 3.3 2.3
Agriculture, hunting,
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 81.6 forestry
25.0
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 33.8 24.9 Manufacturing 75%
75%
6.3 Construction
7.0
Energy (2007) 9.6 9.9 50%
Wholesale and retail
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,461 4.2 4.0 trade
50% 6.0 6.2
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 9,647 7.0
Transport, storage and
7.3 communication
25%
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 402 Financial
intermediation
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 30.0 37.6 39.3 Real estate, renting and
business activities 0%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,241 Other
2003 2005 2007 2009
Chief Ports: Incheon, Pusan, Pohang EU-27
USA EU-27
12% 9%
Japan 9%
USA
6%
11%
Japan
Political Data 15%
President: Lee Myung-bak Exports Other Imports

China
36%
Last elections: 19 December 2007 Other
30%
Next elections: December 2012 28%

China
Central Bank Governor: Kim Chong-soo 20%
Other Other
Asia Asia
13% 11%

Moody’s: A1 Stable
S&P: A Stable Consumer
Fitch Ratings: A+ Stable goods
10%
Heavy Industrial
Electric &
industry electronic materials
products machine 30%
79% 14%
Strengths Weaknesses Imports

Exports Crude Other
• Highly developed infra- • Highly dependent on energy materials capital
and fuels goods
structure imports 11% 11%
Fishing
• Globally leading position in • Quickly ageing population Food and 6%
consumer Fuels
internet penetration • Lingering geopolitical goods 35%
1%
• Highly educated labour force uncertainty regarding North
Korea

FOCUSECONOMICS Malaysia September 2010
Malaysia
Malaysia
Outlook improves
• The economy continues to recover vigorously from last year’s slump
albeit gradually moderating the pace. In the second quarter, GDP
increased 8.9% in annual terms, which was below the previous
quarter’s 10.1% expansion.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages • Consensus Forecast panellists raised their growth forecast by 0.2
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 percentage and now see the economy growing 7.1% this year. Next
Population (million): 24.5 27.2 29.8 year, the panel expects economic growth to moderate to 5.3%.
GDP (USD bn): 99 180 304
GDP growth (%): 5.5 4.1 5.8 • Inflation maintained on its upward trend, in place since the beginning
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.0 -4.4 -4.3 of the year, rising from 1.7% in June to 1.9% in July. Panellists expect
Inflation (%): 1.5 2.9 2.7
the trend to continue and project inflation to average 2.0% this year,
External Debt (% of GDP): 48.4 33.4 24.1 which is unchanged from last month’s projection. Next year, the panel
sees inflation at 2.6%.
Gerardo Morán REAL SECTOR | Economic growth slows down in second quarter
Economist In the second quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 8.9% over the
same period last year. The reading came in below the 10.1% expansion recorded
in the first quarter but overshot market expectations of an 8.1% increase.
Although the figure confirms a strong economic recovery, it also reflects a low
base of comparison, as GDP had fallen 3.9% in the same quarter last year.
Consequently, growth rates are expected to continue moderating in the coming
quarters as the base effect fades away.
GDP by Type, Q2 2010 | variation in % The second quarter’s deceleration was mostly the result of a lower net
contribution from the external sector to overall growth, which fell from minus
Imports 21.9 2.7 percentage points in the first quarter to minus 5.3 percentage points in the
second quarter as growth in imports (Q2: +21.9% year-on-year) continued to
Exports 13.8
outpace that of exports (Q2: +13.8% yoy). In contrast, the domestic sector
Investment 12.9
continued to improve. Gross fixed investment led the way by expanding 12.9%
GDP 8.9 (Q1: +5.4% yoy), while private consumption increased 7.9% (Q1: +5.1% yoy).
Private consumption 7.9
Total consumption 7.7

At the sector level, the deceleration was broad-based, with all major sectors
Government
slowing down compared to the previous quarter. That said, deceleration was
6.9
consumption
mostly driven by the services sector, which accounts for more than a half of
0.0 8.0 16.0 % 24.0
total GDP, and which moderated from an 8.5% expansion in the first quarter to
a 7.3% increase. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector, which accounts for
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and FocusEconomics cal- nearly a quarter of total GDP, expanded a robust 15.9% (Q1: +17.0% yoy).
culations.
Despite the slowdown in exports, International Trade Minister, Mustapa

Mohamed, stated that the country is on track to achieve the 6.0% growth target
set for this year. Consensus Forecast panellists are more optimistic and see
GDP growing 7.1% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. Next year, the panel expects the economy to grow 5.3%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial output growth slows down

In June, industrial output increased 9.4% over the same month last year. The
Industrial Production | variation in % figure represented a deceleration compared to May’s 12.3% expansion
(previously reported: +12.5% year-on-year) and also came in below market
16.0 13.8 14.2
12.3 expectations, which had industrial output rising 11.4%.
10.7
9.4
7.5
8.0
4.8 The deceleration was broad-based, as only output in the mining sector improved
%
0.9 in annual terms compared to the previous month (May: -0.2 yoy; June: +1.3 %
0.0
-0.8 yoy). In contrast, growth in the all-important manufacturing sector, which
accounts for nearly two thirds of total industrial production, slowed to a 13.3%
-8.0 -6.1
-7.0
-7.9
expansion (May: +18.5% yoy), while electricity production moderated to a 5.2%
-9.7

increase (May: +11.5% yoy).
-16.0
Based on monthly figures, in the second quarter, industrial output increased
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production in-
10.8% compared to the same quarter last year, which was down from the 11.1%
dex in %. expansion recorded in the first quarter. Moreover, annual average growth in
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and FocusEconomics cal-
culations. industrial production jumped from 2.2% in May to 3.9%.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate industrial output to grow 7.2% this

year, which is 0.1 percentage points above last month’s forecast. Next year,
the panel sees industrial production adding 4.7%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises amid cut in fuel and sugar subsidies
In July, consumer prices added 0.3% over the previous month, which came in
above June’s 0.2% increase but was in line with market expectations. The
monthly reading was mostly driven by higher prices for transportation, as the
Inflation | Consumer Price Index government recently cut fuel subsidies in an attempt to rein in the fiscal deficit,
which reached a 20-year high in 2009. Owing to the monthly reading, annual
0.4 4.0
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) inflation rose for the fifth consecutive month, increasing from 1.7% in June to
0.3
1.9% in July. Moreover, annual average inflation also increased from 0.1% in
0.3
0.3 0.3 0.3
2.0
June to 0.4%.
% %
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 Amid the steady rise in prices, on 8 July the Central Bank raised the overnight
policy rate from 2.50% to 2.75%, which represented the third interest rate hike
0.1
0.1 -2.0 this year, as the economy is showing signs of a strong recovery. Monetary
0.1
policy makers stated that the current monetary policy stance remains supportive
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 -4.0 of economic growth.

The Central Bank expects inflation to average between 2.0% and 2.5% this
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM). year. Consensus Forecast panellists broadly share the Bank’s assessment and
anticipate inflation to average 2.0% this year, which is unchanged over last
month’s forecast. For next year, participants expect average inflation to inch up
to 2.6%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 138 161 186 222 191 242 275 302 332 368
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.3 5.8 6.3 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. in %) 5.0 7.9 9.2 0.8 -5.5 6.6 5.8 5.7 6.5 6.4
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 3.6 4.8 2.3 0.8 -7.7 7.2 4.7 5.8 6.5 5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 43.8 42.2 41.7 41.5 53.7 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 6.3 5.9 5.1 1.2 1.8 - - - - -
Overnight Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.25 2.00 2.80 3.21 3.47 3.59 3.77
Stock Market (var. of FTSE BM KLCI in %) -0.8 21.8 31.8 -39.3 45.2 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, eop) 3.78 3.53 3.31 3.46 3.42 3.17 3.09 3.10 3.01 2.97
Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, average) 3.79 3.55 3.44 3.33 3.52 3.30 3.13 3.09 3.06 2.99
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 142 166 176 199 157 187 208 230 249 269
Imports (USD bn) 114 135 139 148 117 146 164 189 210 230
External Debt (USD bn) 52.3 52.2 56.7 68.2 68.3 68.7 69.2 73.0 73.3 75.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.9 0.1 -6.2 -3.9 -1.2 4.4 10.1 8.9 5.7 4.8
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 8.4 5.9 3.7 1.3 -2.3 -0.2 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.3
Overnight Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.50 3.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.79 2.80
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) -0.8 7.5 13.8 4.8 14.2 10.7 12.3 9.4 - -
Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.7 - -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) -0.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 -

15 15
ANZ 7.7 6.1
10 10 Capital Economics 7.5 5.5
5 5 Credit Suisse 6.7 5.5
DBS Bank 8.0 5.5
0 0
-5 -5 HSBC 7.1 5.2
Malaysia Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) ING 6.9 6.0
World World
-10 -10 JPMorgan 7.7 4.8
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Kenanga Investment Bank 6.8 5.5
Maybank Investment Bank 7.5 6.1
OCBC Bank 6.7 5.4
10 8
Maximum Maximum RHB Research Institute 7.3 5.0
Consensus Consensus Standard Chartered Bank 6.2 4.5
8 Minimum Minimum UBS 7.0 5.0
6 Summary
Minimum 6.1 4.5
4
Maximum 8.0 6.1
4 Median 7.1 5.2
Consensus 7.1 5.3
2
History
30 days ago 6.9 5.4
0 2 60 days ago 6.6 5.4
Central Bank 4.5 - 5.5 -
IMF (Aug. 2010) 6.7 5.3
18 50
Malaysia Malaysia ADB (July 2010) 6.8 5.0
12
25
0
Notes and sources
-25
-6 General:
real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM)
-12 -50 and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia). See below for
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: DSM.
7 8
2010 2011 2010 2011 4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.
7
6 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.
7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
last 18 months.
6
5 last 18 months.
5
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DSM.
11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: BNM.
4
4 12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during
the last 18 months.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
3 3 18 months.
14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 6.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 - - 3.2 3.0 -5.0 -5.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.9 6.7 6.9 6.0 - - 3.7 3.5 -5.7 -4.5
Credit Suisse 5.2 7.0 5.0 6.5 - - - - -5.4 -4.5
Daiwa Capital Markets 4.2 4.8 2.8 3.0 - - - - -7.8 -6.7
DBS Bank 5.5 4.1 7.1 6.1 - - - - -5.0 -4.3
Deutsche Bank 3.7 4.5 8.4 5.5 5.3 1.9 3.3 3.2 -4.5 -3.0
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -6.0 -
HSBC 6.5 6.7 7.4 6.5 11.7 6.3 3.2 3.3 -4.5 -3.2
ING 4.5 5.5 10.1 8.6 5.2 5.9 - - -7.2 -6.4
JPMorgan 6.1 6.1 - - 5.1 3.8 - - -5.2 -4.5
Kenanga Investment Bank 6.1 5.3 6.3 4.5 7.9 4.7 3.4 3.4 -5.8 -5.5
Maybank Investment Bank 6.5 6.9 7.0 8.8 8.7 4.1 3.5 3.5 -5.5 -4.5
Morgan Stanley - - 2.0 5.0 - - - - - -
OCBC Bank 5.2 5.5 11.7 5.2 5.0 3.5 3.5 3.3 - -
RHB Research Institute 5.6 6.0 8.9 8.6 8.3 7.5 3.5 3.4 -5.3 -4.4
UBS 5.6 5.3 4.2 5.3 - - - - -6.2 -5.7
Summary
Minimum 3.7 4.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 1.9 3.2 3.0 -7.8 -6.7
Maximum 6.5 7.0 11.7 8.8 11.7 7.5 3.7 3.5 -4.5 -3.0
Median 5.6 5.5 7.0 5.8 6.6 4.4 3.4 3.3 -5.4 -4.5
Consensus 5.4 5.6 6.6 5.8 7.2 4.7 3.4 3.3 -5.6 -4.8
History
30 days ago 5.4 5.6 6.6 5.8 7.1 5.0 3.4 3.3 -5.6 -4.6
60 days ago 5.3 5.5 6.5 5.8 6.9 5.0 3.4 3.3 -5.6 -4.6
90 days ago 5.2 5.5 6.6 5.3 6.3 5.1 3.5 3.3 -5.8 -4.7

30 5 4
Malaysia Malaysia
Malaysia
20
4 0
10
3 -4
0
-10 2 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
8 4.5 -4
2010 2011 2010 2011
-5
6 4.0
-6
4 3.5
-7
2010 2011
2 3.0 -8

12 12
Malaysia Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) ANZ - -
9 8
6 4
DBS Bank 1.8 2.4
3 0 Goldman Sachs 2.8 3.0
HSBC 2.0 2.6
ING 1.6 2.0
0 -4 JPMorgan 2.2 2.4
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Kenanga Investment Bank 2.0 2.5
Maybank Investment Bank 2.0 2.7
OCBC Bank 2.0 3.3
5 Maximum 4
RHB Research Institute 2.0 2.8
Consensus
Minimum
4 UBS 1.9 2.2
3 Summary
Minimum 1.5 1.9
2
Maximum 2.8 3.6
2 Median 2.0 2.6
Consensus 2.0 2.6
1 Maximum
Consensus
History
0 1 60 days ago 2.1 2.6
19 | Producer Prices | % variation 20 | Money | % variation
Central Bank 2.0-2.5 -
IMF (Aug. 2010) 2.0 2.1
12 40
ADB (Mar. 2010) 2.4 3.0
8
20
0
0
-4 -20
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Notes and sources
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | FTSE BM KLCI General:

500 1,600 real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM)
and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia). See below for
details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1,400
400
%. Source: DSM.
1,200 (CPI) in %. Source: DSM.
300
19 Producer price indiex, annual variation in % (eop). 1995-2009.
1,000 Source: DSM.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: BNM.
21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end of
800
200
22 Daily index levels, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI. From Jan. 2008
until end of previous month. Source: FTSE Bursa Malaysia.

10 4
% MYR per USD
ANZ 2.75 3.25 3.38 3.20
3
6
Capital Economics 3.00 3.50 3.10 -
Credit Suisse 2.50 3.00 3.18 3.08
4
2
DBS Bank 3.00 - 3.20 -
2 Deutsche Bank 3.00 - 3.15 3.06
HSBC 2.75 3.00 3.05 -
0 1
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
ING 2.75 2.75 3.21 3.21
JPMorgan 3.00 3.00 3.10 3.05
Kenanga Investment Bank 2.75 3.50 3.15 3.07
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst Maybank Investment Bank 2.75 3.25 3.13 3.03
4 8 Morgan Stanley - - 3.32 3.15
Maximum
Consensus OCBC Bank 2.75 3.50 3.20 3.12
Minimum RHB Research Institute 2.75 3.25 3.15 3.10
6 Standard Chartered Bank 2.75 3.50 3.15 3.00
3 UBS 2.75 3.00 3.30 3.15
United Overseas Bank 2.75 - 3.18 -
4 Summary
Minimum 2.50 2.75 3.05 2.97
2 Maximum 3.00 3.50 3.38 3.21
2 Median 2.75 3.25 3.15 3.08
Maximum Consensus 2.80 3.21 3.17 3.09
Consensus
Minimum History
1 0 30 days ago 2.77 3.08 3.21 3.11
60 days ago 2.76 3.09 3.21 3.12
90 days ago 2.74 3.06 3.20 3.13
27 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD
4.0 3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.0
3.2 Notes and sources
General:
2.5 3.0 real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM)
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia). See below for
details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
29 | MYR/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | MYR/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 23 Interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in % (eop).
Source: BNM.
4.5 4.0
Maximum Maximum 24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in %
Consensus Consensus (eop). Source: BNM.
27 Exchange rate, MYR per USD (eop). Source: BNM.
4.0 3.5
28 Quarterly exchange rate, MYR per USD (eop). Source: BNM.
months.
3.5 3.0
months.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: DSM.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BNM.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BNM.
3.0 2.5 during the last 18 months.
35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.
36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: BNM.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Credit Suisse 36.6 38.7 49.7 52.0 200 227 151 175 98 107
DBS Bank 36.0 39.0 48.0 56.0 201 218 153 162 108 119
Deutsche Bank 31.2 26.7 40.9 36.1 186 200 146 164 109 121
Goldman Sachs 38.3 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 36.9 41.1 48.7 53.5 197 219 148 165 102 115
ING 24.0 26.0 30.0 32.0 142 157 112 125 107 112
JPMorgan 34.7 36.4 42.9 43.8 179 204 137 160 101 104
Kenanga Investment Bank 31.0 35.7 - - - - - - 108 115
Maybank Investment Bank 38.6 38.8 40.5 41.3 195 222 154 181 - -
Morgan Stanley 34.6 33.6 47.2 47.6 - - - - - -
OCBC Bank 32.7 35.2 38.8 42.3 180 201 142 159 99 105
RHB Research Institute 31.0 29.7 33.1 30.7 200 227 167 196 100 107
UBS 39.1 39.6 40.6 40.4 194 208 153 167 108 118
Summary
Minimum 24.0 26.0 30.0 30.7 142 157 112 125 98 104
Maximum 39.1 41.1 49.7 56.0 201 227 167 196 109 121
Median 34.7 35.8 40.9 42.3 192 211 149 165 105 113
Consensus 33.9 34.8 41.2 43.7 187 208 146 164 104 113
History
30 days ago 34.3 35.0 41.2 43.6 187 207 146 164 104 113
60 days ago 34.6 35.3 42.3 44.8 191 212 149 168 105 114
90 days ago 34.0 35.1 40.6 43.9 188 209 148 166 108 118
20 300 20
Trade Balance Malaysia
Exports
Asia (ex Japan)
Imports
200 15
10
100 10
0
0 5
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan)
-10 -100 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
40 30 80
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan)
35 15 60
30 0 40
25 -15 20
2010 2011
20 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Malaysia in the Region

Official name: Malaysia
Capital: Kuala Lumpur (1.4 m)
Korea
Other cities: Pinang (1.2 m) Malaysia
1% 2% Malaysia
2%
Ipoh (1.0 m) Other Korea Other
9% 10% 14%
Area (km2): 329,750
Population (million, 2009 est.): 28.3 Indonesia
7% Indonesia
6%
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) 85.8
China
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 1.7 43%

15%
Language: Bahasa Malaysia, India China
53%
English 38%


Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 15.7 100%
2004 2009
8.2 7.7 Agriculture, hunting,
forestry
75%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 6.1 Mining and Quarrying
75%
26.9
30.7 Manufacturing
Energy (2007) 50%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,517 50%

5.3
Real Estates and
4.3 Business Services
11.7
Finance and Insurance 25%
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 103 11.0
13.2
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 99.2 25% Wholesale and Retail

Trade
0%
Other 2003 2005 2007 2009
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 540 Private Consumption Government Consumption
0% Investment Net exports
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 157.2
EU-27 EU-27
Chief Ports: Port Kelang 11%
USA
10%
USA 8%
Japan
13% 10% Japan
10%
Political Data Singapore
22%
China
Prime Minister: Najib Tun Razak Singapore
16%
Exports 16% Imports China
15%
Last elections: 8 March 2008
Next elections: March 2013
Central Bank Governor: Zeti Akhtar Aziz Other Other
Other 17% Other
Asia
18% Asia
16%
19%

Moody’s: A3 Stable
S&P: A- Stable Oil & Other
Fitch Ratings: A- Stable Palm oil & derivative
Consumer
9%
derivative 8%
goods
9%
7%
Capital
Other
Strengths Weaknesses goods
Exports 42%
15%
Imports
• Competitive labour costs • Scarcity of qualified labour
Electronics &
electric
• Advanced financial sector • Vulnerability to external shocks equipment
41%
• Net exporter of oil and gas • Low productivity Intermediate goods
68%

FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines September 2010
Philippines
Philippines
Outlook improves
• The government raised the official GDP forecast to 5.9 - 6.9% (from a
previous 5.0 - 6.0% estimate) after the economy posted a 7.9% ex-
pansion in the second quarter. The reading, which marked the fast-
est pace since 2007, came in slightly above the previous quarter’s
robust 7.8% expansion and was driven by strong investment and a
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages buoyant external sector.
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14
Population (million): 80.2 88.7 97.7 • Consensus Forecast panellists accordingly raised their 2010 GDP
GDP (USD bn): 78 138 230 forecasts for a third consecutive month and now expect economic
GDP per capita (USD): 973 1,547 2,344
growth to reach 5.6%. In 2011, growth is expected to moderate to
GDP growth (%): 4.6 4.4 5.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.4 -1.8 -2.8 4.8%.
Inflation (%): 4.4 5.8 4.4
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.7 3.7 2.9
• In July, inflation remained unchanged at June’s 3.9%. Panellists low-
External Debt (% of GDP): 69.1 40.7 27.8
ered their forecasts for a third consecutive month and now expect
consumer prices to increase 4.4% in 2010. In 2011, the panel antici-
pates inflation to moderate slightly to 4.2%.
Marcos Felipe Casarin REAL SECTOR | Economy expands faster-than-expected in the second
Economist consecutive quarter
In the second quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.9% over the
same period the year before, marking the fastest growth rate since the second
quarter of 2007 and the second consecutive quarter with annual growth rate
above 7%. The reading virtually mirrored the robust 7.8% annual expansion
(previously reported: +7.3% year-on-year) registered in the first quarter and
GDP by Type Q2 2010 | variation in % also overshot market expectations of a 6.3% annual expansion.
Exports 27.4 According to the Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB),
growth was driven by the external demand, as the domestic demand deceler-
Imports 23.9
ated over the previous quarter. In particular, growth in private consumption
Investment 11.0 slowed from 5.4% in the first quarter to 4.9%. Furthermore, investment slowed
GDP 7.9
to 11.0%, well below the strong 21.9% surge recorded in the first quarter.
Government
5.6
Consumption In the external sector, exports accelerated strongly to grow 27.4% (Q1: 22.4%
Private
4.9
yoy), while imports also improved, albeit less sharply (Q1: +22.4% yoy; Q2:
Consumption
+23.9% yoy). As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to over-
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 % 30.0
all economic growth improved from a 0.1 percentage-point detraction in the
first quarter to a 1.6 percentage-point contribution in the second.
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
At the sector level, the second quarter reading was driven by the 15.8% ex-
pansion recorded in industry, as the El Niño phenomenon negatively affected
the agricultural sector, which contracted 3.0% annually (Q1: -2.7% yoy). Sea-
sonally adjusted figures corroborate the strong growth suggested by the an-
nual data, as the economy grew 1.3% over the first three months of the year.
Accordingly, the National Economic Development Authority revised the
government’s official 2010 GDP growth target from 5.0% to 6.0% to 5.9% to
6.9%.

The Consensus Forecast panel also raised their forecasts and expects eco-
nomic growth to reach 5.6% in 2010, which is 0.2 percentage points above last
month’s Consensus Forecast. The panel expects the economy to grow 4.8%
next year.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation remains unchanged in July

In July, consumer prices added 0.24% over the previous month, which mir-
rored June’s reading of a 0.24% rise (previously reported: +0.18% month-on-
month). The monthly price rise was broad-based, as prices rose in all the six
main categories surveyed by that compose the index. In particular, the 0.43%
mom price increase for services was the main driver of July’s reading.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Despite the monthly increase, annual headline inflation remained unchanged
at 3.9% in July, undershooting market expectations of a 4.1% rate. Meanwhile,
0.9 6.0
core inflation, which excludes more volatile price categories such as oil and
0.62
fresh food, increased 0.25% over the previous month. As a result, annual core
0.57 0.56 0.55 0.55
0.6
inflation inched up to 3.9% (June: +3.8% year-on-year).
0.43 4.0
0.31
0.3 0.24 0.24 0.24
0.19 0.24 % Annual average inflation, which is the reference rate for the Central Bank’s
0.12
%
2.0 policy making, accelerated further to 3.2% (June: +2.9%), although still re-
0.0
mains well below the target of 4.5% with a ± 1.0 percentage-point tolerance
-0.18
margin set for this year. Therefore, owing to the benign inflation outlook and to
-0.3 0.0
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
the increasing productive capacity of the economy, the monetary board de-
cided to keep interest rates unchanged at its most recent meeting on 26 Au-
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. gust. Furthermore, monetary authorities also announced the new inflation tar-
Source: National Statistics Office (NSO).
get for the 2012-14 period at 4.0% with a ± 1.0 percentage-point tolerance
margin.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate annual inflation to average 4.4% this

year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2011,
the panel expects consumer prices to moderate to 4.2%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 99 118 144 167 161 187 210 231 248 272
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -6.6 3.9 10.9 2.9 -3.5 6.7 4.6 5.9 6.2 5.9
Money (ann. var. of M1 in %) 9.9 24.6 15.1 21.0 14.1 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 12.9 5.9 0.9 1.8 5.7 - - - - -
Treasury Bill Rate 91 Days (%, eop) 5.61 5.26 3.71 6.12 3.89 4.52 5.12 5.00 5.20 4.77
Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) 53.1 49.1 41.4 47.5 46.4 44.9 43.4 44.8 45.1 44.2
Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, average) 55.0 51.3 46.1 44.5 47.6 45.6 44.1 44.1 44.9 44.6
External Sector
Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) 2.0 4.5 4.4 2.2 5.3 4.2 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.8
Current Account (USD bn) 2.0 5.3 6.4 3.6 8.6 7.9 8.1 6.5 5.0 4.8
Exports (USD bn) 40.3 46.5 49.3 48.3 37.5 45.2 49.1 53.7 58.2 60.2
Imports (USD bn) 48.0 53.3 57.6 61.1 46.4 52.9 58.1 64.8 72.5 76.4
Exports (annual variation in %) 3.8 15.6 6.0 -2.2 -22.3 20.0 8.7 9.3 8.4 3.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 18.4 23.0 33.8 37.6 44.2 48.0 53.6 58.9 60.7 62.6
Treasury Bill Rate 91 Days (%, eop) 5.70 6.12 4.41 4.44 3.99 3.89 3.88 3.99 4.11 4.52
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.62 0.55 0.24 0.43 0.24 0.55 -0.18 0.24 0.24 -
Remittances (USD bn) 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 - -

12 15
Philippines Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Asia (ex Japan)
World ANZ 7.4 6.6
Banco de Oro 5.0 5.5
10
BPI AMTG 5.0 -
6
5
0 DBS Bank 6.2 5.0
0 Deutsche Bank 4.5 5.0
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
World HSBC 5.0 4.6
-6 -5 ING 6.1 4.2
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 6.8 4.3
Metropolitan Bank and Trust 5.9 -
Philippine Equity Partners 5.0 4.0
8 8
Maximum Maximum UBS 5.5 4.6
Consensus Consensus United Overseas Bank - -
Minimum Minimum Summary
6 6
Minimum 4.2 3.9
Maximum 7.4 6.6
Median 5.6 5.0
Consensus 5.6 4.8
4 4 History
30 days ago 5.4 4.7
60 days ago 5.1 4.5
90 days ago 3.9 4.4
2 2 Additional Forecasts
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul ADB (July 2010) 5.0 4.6
IMF (July 2010) 6.0 4.0
9 30
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
20
6
10
0
Notes and sources
3
General:
-10
sector data are from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB),
Philippines the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of Philippines
Asia (ex Japan) (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based
0 -20
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.

Source: NSCB.
5.5 8 3 GDP, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2010 4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2011 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.
5.0
6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.
6
18 months.
4.5
last 18 months.
4.0 9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: NSO.
4 10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: NSO.
11 Balance of national government, % of GDP. Source: BSP.
3.5 12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
2010 last 18 months.
3.0 2 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Balance national government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts


Consumption Investment Unemployment Fiscal Balance
% variation % variation % of active pop. % of GDP
ANZ - - - - - - - -
Banco de Oro 3.8 3.4 4.0 3.3 8.0 8.0 -3.6 -4.1
BPI AMTG - - - - - - -3.1 -
Capital Economics 4.0 4.0 5.0 4.5 - - -3.8 -3.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.8 5.0 9.9 7.6 - - -4.0 -3.5
Credit Suisse 5.9 4.9 8.9 3.9 - - -3.8 -3.0
DBS Bank 6.5 4.1 2.7 1.7 - - -4.0 -3.0
Deutsche Bank 3.9 5.2 7.9 6.2 8.1 7.9 -3.5 -2.6
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - -3.2 -
HSBC 5.4 5.3 6.3 5.7 7.6 7.1 -4.3 -3.4
ING 5.2 5.6 - - 7.3 7.0 -3.6 -3.0
JPMorgan - - - - - - -3.5 -2.5
Metropolitan Bank and Trust - - - - - - - -
Philippine Equity Partners 5.5 5.3 - - - - -3.8 -3.0
UBS 5.4 4.9 8.5 3.8 - - -3.6 -3.2
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 3.8 3.4 2.7 1.7 7.3 7.0 -4.3 -4.1
Maximum 6.5 5.6 9.9 7.6 8.1 8.0 -3.1 -2.5
Median 5.3 5.0 7.1 4.2 7.8 7.5 -3.6 -3.0
Consensus 5.0 4.8 6.7 4.6 7.7 7.5 -3.7 -3.1
History
30 days ago 5.0 4.8 7.2 4.9 7.7 7.5 -3.7 -3.1
60 days ago 4.8 4.7 7.0 4.9 7.6 7.4 -3.6 -3.1
90 days ago 4.4 4.6 3.6 4.7 7.6 7.4 -3.6 -3.0

15 12 4
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
World
9
5 0
-5 -4
3
Philippines
Philippines Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan)
-15 0 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
6 9.0 -1
2010
2011 2010
2011
8.5
5 -2
8.0
4 -3
7.5
2010
2011
3 7.0 -4

12 16
Philippines Asia (ex Japan) Philippines Asia (ex Japan)
ANZ - -
12 Banco de Oro 4.0 3.8
BPI AMTG 4.8 -
8
4
4
DBS Bank 4.0 4.4
0 Goldman Sachs 4.7 4.2
HSBC 4.7 4.6
0 -4 ING 4.5 4.8
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 5.3 4.9
Metropolitan Bank and Trust 4.1 -
Philippine Equity Partners 4.3 4.5
8 8
Maximum Maximum UBS 4.1 4.2
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum United Overseas Bank - -
6 6
Summary
Minimum 3.8 3.0
Maximum 5.3 5.0
4 4 Median 4.4 4.4
Consensus 4.4 4.2
History
2 2 30 days ago 4.5 4.2
60 days ago 4.6 4.5
90 days ago 4.7 4.6
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Central Bank (June 2010) 4.7 3.0 - 5.0
IMF (Apr. 2010) 5.0 4.0
19 | Core and Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation
ADB (Mar. 2010) 4.7 4.5
15 45
Core Price Index
PPI
30
10
15
5
0
0 -15
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources
General:
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | Phisix Composite Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
380 4,000 monetary sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the
Central Bank of Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below
for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

300 3,000 %. Source: NSO.
%. Source: NSO.
220 2,000
19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 2004-
2009. Source: NSO.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: BSP.
21 Daily MSCI Price Index in USD. Jan. 2008 until end of previous
140 1,000 month. Source: MSCI Barra.
22 Daily index levels, Phisix Composite Index. Jan. 2008 until end of
previous month. Source: The Philippine Stock and Exchange.

23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
20 8
% PHP per USD
ANZ 4.50 - 48.3 46.9
6
12
Banco de Oro 4.00 4.00 44.5 43.5
BPI AMTG 5.00 - 43.2 -
8
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 6.00 6.50 43.5 43.3
4
Credit Suisse - - 45.0 43.0
4 DBS Bank 4.50 - 45.5 -
Deutsche Bank 4.80 5.20 45.0 43.5
0 2
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 4.25 5.00 44.0 41.5
ING 4.00 4.50 47.3 42.8
JPMorgan 4.25 5.00 43.8 42.3
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst Metropolitan Bank and Trust 4.25 - 44.5 -
7 7 Philippine Equity Partners 4.50 5.00 45.5 46.0
UBS 4.50 5.50 46.0 44.0
6 6 United Overseas Bank 4.50 - 45.4 -
Summary
Minimum 4.00 4.00 43.0 41.5
5 5 Maximum 6.00 6.50 48.3 46.9
Median 4.50 5.10 44.5 43.1
Consensus 4.52 5.12 44.9 43.4
4 4 History
Maximum Maximum
Consensus 30 days ago 4.67 5.26 44.9 43.5
Consensus
Minimum Minimum 60 days ago 4.85 5.42 44.6 43.4
3 3 90 days ago 4.96 5.43 44.3 43.3
27 | Exchange Rate | PHP per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | PHP per USD
60 50
48
50
46
40
44
30
42
Notes and sources

20 40
General:
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistics Office
(NSO) and the Central Bank of Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng
29 | PHP/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | PHP/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
60 60 Consensus Forecast.
23 Treasury Bill 91-days interest rate in % (eop). Source: BSP.

24 Quarterly Treasury Bill 91-days interest rate in % (eop). Source: BSP.
50 50 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: BSP.
28 Quarterly exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: BSP.
40 40
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NSO.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: NSO.
Maximum Maximum 33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BSP.
Consensus Consensus
Minimum 34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
Minimum
30 30
35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: NSO.
36 External debt as % GDP. Source: BSP.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Banco de Oro 2.5 2.5 -6.9 -5.1 40.1 38.0 47.0 43.1 43.6 44.9
BPI AMTG - - - - - - - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 6.5 3.8 -12.3 -15.8 45.0 51.1 57.3 66.9 47.5 50.0
Credit Suisse 8.9 7.3 -9.5 -11.7 44.1 48.1 53.7 59.8 - -
DBS Bank 8.0 10.0 -4.0 -2.0 45.0 50.0 49.0 52.0 50.0 54.0
Deutsche Bank 11.9 13.7 -8.0 -8.8 47.7 52.5 55.7 61.3 48.5 64.1
Goldman Sachs 6.8 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 10.2 11.4 -11.9 -16.1 43.5 46.8 55.4 62.9 55.1 59.0
ING 6.3 7.4 -11.8 -10.8 49.5 58.4 61.3 69.2 43.0 47.0
JPMorgan 9.7 9.4 -5.2 -7.7 43.4 46.9 48.6 54.6 41.7 44.7
Metropolitan Bank and Trust - - -6.0 - 47.0 - 53.0 - - -
Philippine Equity Partners 5.5 4.5 -4.5 -5.5 44.6 49.0 49.1 54.5 - -
UBS 9.1 8.9 -5.0 -5.9 47.3 50.6 52.3 56.5 54.9 65.3
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 2.5 2.5 -12.3 -16.1 40.1 38.0 47.0 43.1 41.7 44.7
Maximum 11.9 13.7 -4.0 -2.0 49.5 58.4 61.3 69.2 55.1 65.3
Median 8.5 8.9 -6.9 -8.3 45.0 49.5 53.0 58.1 48.0 52.0
Consensus 7.9 8.1 -7.7 -8.9 45.2 49.1 52.9 58.1 48.0 53.6
History
30 days ago 7.9 8.1 -7.7 -8.9 45.1 49.1 52.8 58.1 48.0 53.6
60 days ago 8.0 8.1 -7.8 -8.9 44.6 48.1 52.4 57.1 48.3 53.9
90 days ago 7.7 7.7 -7.9 -9.1 44.2 47.6 52.2 56.8 47.8 53.2
8 120 20
Trade Balance
Exports Philippines
Imports Asia (ex Japan)
4 15
60
0 10
0
-4 5
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
-8 -60 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
10 30 80
2010
2011
8 15 60
6 0 40
4 -15 20
Philippines Philippines
2 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Philippines in the Region
Official name: Republic of the Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Philippines Philippines Philippines
Capital: Manila (9.9 m) 3% 2%
Other Other
Other cities: Cebu (1.3 m) Korea 7% Korea 14%
2% 10%
Davao (0.8 m)
Indonesia
Area (km2): 300,000 7% Indonesia
6%
Population (million, 2009 est.): 92.1 China
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.): 307 43%
India
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 2.0 15%
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 71.1
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 7.4 India China
38% 53%
Language: Filipino and English

100%
2004 2009
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 6.5 20% 18%
75%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 1.9 Agriculture
75%
50%
32%
Energy (2007) 33%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 489 25%

50% Industry
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 56.6 0%
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 49.0 25% 50%
47%
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 25 Services -25%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 326 2003 2005 2007 2009
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 77.7 0% Investment Net Exports
Railways (km): 897
Chief Ports: Manila EU-27
USA EU-27
11%
USA 12% 8%
13% Japan
12%
Japan
Political Data Other
Other 14%
22%
9%
President: Benigno Aquino Latin Exports Imports
America
Last elections: 10 May 2010 1% Latin
America China
Next elections: May 2014 Other 2% 15%
China
Central Bank Governor: Amando M. Tetangco Jr. Asia
34%
20% Other
Asia
27%

Moody’s: Ba3 Stable
S&P: BB- Stable Electronics Other
Fitch Ratings: BB Stable 58%5.627902577 13%
Raw
Materials &
Mineral Intermediat
Fuels, e Goods
Lubricants 37%
Strengths Weaknesses Exports & Related Imports
goods
22%
• Widespread English proficiency • Weak fiscal structure Agro-
based
6%
• Well-educated labour force • Large government and Other Other
Capital
external debt Manufactur 11%
goods
• Solid telecom infrastructure es
28%
25%
• Guerilla group activities
• Large domestic market
remains a serious security
threat on southern islands

FOCUSECONOMICS Singapore September 2010
Singapore
Singapore
Outlook improves
• Revised second quarter data confirm the strength of the country’s
economic recovery, as GDP expanded 18.8% over the same period
last year. However, going forward, growth is likely to slow as indus-
trial production rose 9.9% year-on-year, less than half of the previ-
ous month’s expansion.
• Consensus Forecast participants raised their GDP forecasts for the
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14
Population (million): 4.1 4.6 5.2 sixth consecutive month and now expect the economy to grow 12.8%
GDP (USD bn): 94 160 261 this year, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month’s esti-
mate. In 2011, growth is likely to moderate to 5.2%.
GDP growth (%): 4.9 5.0 6.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 5.7 6.2 0.5
Inflation (%): 0.8 2.1 2.2 • Inflation rose from 2.7% to 3.1% in July due to a sharp monthly price
spike. Nevertheless, Consensus Forecast panellists maintained their
projections and expect consumer prices to average 2.7% this year.
In 2011, the panel anticipates inflation to remain virtually unchanged
at 2.6%.
Marcos Felipe Casarin REAL SECTOR | Government maintains full-year growth forecasts de-
Economist spite downwards revision
According to revised figures released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry
(MTI) on 11 August, gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.8% over the
same quarter the previous year, which came in slightly below the 19.3% ex-
pansion first reported on 14 July. In seasonally adjusted annualised terms, the
second quarter reading is equivalent to a 24.0% jump.
GDP by Type, Q2 2010 | variation in % Based on the expenditure approach, the strong second quarter figure reflected
resilient external demand, as growth in exports rose faster than imports. In
Exports 23.3
contrast, domestic demand decelerated to a 9.7% annual expansion, com-
pared to the first quarter’s 11.4% rise, amid an 1.2% drop in investment (Q1:
Imports 21.1
+10.6% year-on-year). On the other hand, private consumption improved from
GDP 18.8 a 5.9% expansion in the first quarter to a 6.7% rise in the second. In addition,
exports of goods and services rose 23.3% (Q1: +20.0% yoy) and imports ex-
Private Consumption 6.7
panded 21.1% annually, up from a 16.9% rise in the first quarter. As a result,
Government
Consumption
5.0 the net contribution from the external sector to overall economic growth rose
Gross Fixed from 14.7 percentage points in the first to 17.3 in the second quarter.
-1.2
Investment
-6.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 18.0 24.0 % 30.0

The downward adjustment reflected a less buoyant manufacturing sector than
previously estimated, which was the result of a 50% monthly drop in the vola-
Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and FocusEconomics calcula- tile pharmaceutical production in June. That said, the main driver of the sec-
tions.
ond quarter reading was the industrial sector, as manufacturing soared 44.5%
over the same period last year (previously reported: +45.5% yoy). Construc-
tion growth was also revised downwards but remained strong, accelerating
from a 9.7% expansion in the first quarter to an 11.5% rise in the second (pre-
viously reported: +13.5% yoy). In addition, the all-important services sector –

which accounts for two thirds of GDP – remained virtually unchanged posting
an 11.2% annual expansion (Q1: +11.4% yoy).
Despite the downward revision, the government maintained its official forecast
for 2010 GDP growth at 13.0% – 15.0%. If attained, the figure would represent
the fastest rate of expansion in more than two decades. Accordingly, Consen-
sus Forecast panellists revised their forecasts upwards and now expect the
economy to grow 12.8% this year. For 2011, the panel anticipates GDP to
expand 5.2%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation soars in July

In July, consumer prices rose 1.3% over the previous month, which contrasted
the 1.0% decrease registered in June. The monthly price fall was broad-based,
as all eight categories registered higher prices compared to the previous month.
In particular, higher prices for clothing and footwear (+3.2% month-on-month),
transport (+1.7% mom) as well as for housing (+2.6% mom) were the main
Inflation | Consumer Price Index drivers behind the July figure.
2.0 4.0
Monthly (left scale)
1.3
As a result of the monthly price increase, annual inflation jumped from 2.7% in
1.2 Annual (right scale)
1.0 0.9
3.0 June to 3.1%, which broadly matched market expectations. After falling unex-
0.6 0.7 0.6
0.4 0.4 0.4 pectedly in June, inflation is now back to the upward trend, which has been in
% 2.0
0.1
0.0
place since the first quarter and is partially the result of the exuberant growth
%
-0.1
1.0 recorded during the first half of the year. In July, the annual average inflation
-0.5
rose for the fourth consecutive month to 1.1%, from 0.9% in June.
-1.0
-1.0 0.0
-2.0 -1.0 The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) conducts its monetary policy
through the management of the exchange rate, instead of using interest rates.
Monetary authorities last tightened its policy stance on 14 April, when they
Source: Statistics Singapore (Singstat).
announced a revaluation of the currency, while announcing they would allow a
gradual appreciation of the Singaporean dollar.
Monetary authorities expect inflation to range between 2.5% and 3.5% this
year. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 2.7% this
year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2011, the panel ex-
pects average inflation to inch down to 2.6%.


Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 121 141 172 188 177 221 244 262 278 300
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.8 3.1 6.5 2.7 0.4 5.3 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.6
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -0.1 14.6 19.9 13.6 -3.3 11.3 8.0 6.4 6.6 6.9
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 9.5 11.9 5.9 -4.2 -4.2 26.8 8.4 6.9 6.9 6.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 8.1 7.2 12.1 5.7 -2.0 -1.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.3 0.8 4.4 4.3 -0.6 - - - - -
Inflation (DSPI, annual variation in %) 11.3 -1.4 9.9 -18.8 12.7 - - - - -
Interbank 3-Month Interest Rate (%, eop) 3.25 3.44 2.63 1.00 0.69 0.72 1.56 2.05 2.50 2.55
Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, eop) 1.66 1.53 1.44 1.44 1.40 1.36 1.33 1.36 1.34 1.33
Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, average) 1.66 1.59 1.51 1.41 1.45 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.33
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 230 272 299 337 269 336 373 410 449 499
Imports (USD bn) 200 238 263 319 245 299 334 368 404 447
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.0 -2.5 -8.9 -1.7 1.8 3.8 16.9 18.8 9.4 10.7
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 6.6 5.4 2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 0.2 0.9 3.6 3.1
Interbank 3-Month Interest Rate (%, eop) 1.88 1.00 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.56 0.61 0.72
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) -9.6 15.3 42.0 20.5 53.4 49.8 59.4 29.5 9.9 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.0 -0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.6 -1.0 1.3 -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) -0.2 -0.6 0.2 1.0 1.6 3.2 3.2 2.7 3.1 -

15 20
Singapore Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Singapore
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) ANZ 10.4 4.3
World World
10
10
5
DBS Bank 15.0 4.5
HSBC 9.7 5.5
ING 15.3 5.8
-5 -10 JPMorgan 10.5 4.3
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Morgan Stanley 9.0 6.0
OCBC Bank 14.0 5.5
OSK-DMG Group - -
20 8
Maximum
Consensus UBS 14.5 5.0
15 Minimum 6
Summary
Minimum 9.0 4.0
10 4 Maximum 17.0 6.5
Median 14.0 5.0
Consensus 12.8 5.2
5 2 Maximum History
Consensus 30 days ago 12.3 5.2
0 0 90 days ago 7.8 5.3
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Additional Forecasts
MTI (July 2010) 13.0 - 15.0 -
IMF (July 2010) 9.9 4.9
ADB (July 2010) 12.5 5.0
15 30
20
10
10
5
Notes and sources
0
General:
0 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All real
-10
sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat), the Ministry of
Singapore Singapore Manpower, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and the International
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) Monetary Fund (IMF). See below for details. Forecasts based on
-5 -20
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.

Source: MTI and Singstat.
2011 2011 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.
10
5 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.
18 months.
8
4 last 18 months.
6 9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: Singstat.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: Ministry of Manpower.
11 Balance of general government, % of GDP. Source: IMF.
3
4 12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
last 18 months.
2 2 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Balance of general government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 4.5 4.0 8.5 7.0 - - 2.0 2.0 -1.5 1.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 5.6 4.3 12.9 8.4 - - 2.0 2.0 -1.8 2.0
Credit Suisse 5.5 5.2 10.0 9.0 - - 2.2 2.2 -0.7 0.1
Daiwa Capital Markets 9.7 5.9 21.5 11.9 36.8 8.4 - - -2.7 -1.3
DBS Bank 3.0 3.5 5.0 6.7 24.2 6.3 2.0 1.8 - -
Deutsche Bank 2.7 3.3 13.7 4.6 38.2 7.8 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.1
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -2.5 -
HSBC 4.8 3.2 8.4 7.7 19.3 6.5 1.5 1.7 -0.2 1.4
ING 5.3 4.8 7.3 8.5 12.4 8.5 - - 0.2 1.2
JPMorgan - - - - 28.9 11.6 2.3 2.1 - -
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - - -
OCBC Bank 6.9 4.7 10.0 7.8 28.0 10.0 2.0 2.2 - -
OSK-DMG Group - - - - - - 2.8 3.0 -2.5 1.0
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - 0.0 1.0
UBS 5.2 6.9 15.2 8.3 - - - - -1.0 0.7
Summary
Minimum 2.7 3.2 5.0 4.6 12.4 6.3 1.5 1.0 -2.7 -2.3
Maximum 9.7 6.9 21.5 11.9 38.2 11.6 2.8 3.0 0.8 2.0
Median 5.3 4.5 10.0 8.0 28.0 8.4 2.0 2.1 -1.1 1.0
Consensus 5.3 4.6 11.3 8.0 26.8 8.4 2.1 2.1 -1.1 0.5
History
30 days ago 5.2 4.6 11.1 8.0 23.2 7.7 2.1 2.0 -1.1 0.5
60 days ago 4.9 4.6 10.2 7.7 18.9 7.7 2.1 2.1 -0.8 1.0
90 days ago 5.6 4.6 9.5 7.7 12.3 7.4 2.0 2.0 -1.2 0.8

32 5 16
Singapore Singapore
Singapore Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) World
24
4
16 8
8 3
0 0
2
-8
-16 1 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
30 5 4
2010
2010
2011
2011
4
20 2
10 0
2
2010
2011
0 1 -2

12 10
Singapore
ANZ - -
Asia (ex Japan)
8
5
4
DBS Bank 3.0 2.7
Singapore
HSBC 2.4 1.9
Asia (ex Japan) ING 2.5 2.0
-4 -5 JPMorgan 3.2 3.8
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Morgan Stanley 2.0 2.0
OCBC Bank 3.1 2.6
OSK-DMG Group 2.5 2.8
4 4
UBS 2.8 1.9
3
2 Summary
Minimum 1.9 1.5
2 Maximum 3.3 3.8
Median 2.9 2.6
0 Consensus 2.7 2.6
1 History
Maximum
Consensus Maximum 30 days ago 2.7 2.6
Minimum Consensus 60 days ago 2.7 2.7
Minimum
-2 0 90 days ago 2.4 2.5
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Additional Forecasts
ADB (Mar. 2010) 2.3 2.0
19 | DSPI | annual variation in % 20 | Money | % variation
IMF (July 2010) 2.5 2.1
14 30
7
20
10
-7
0
-14
-21 -10
2004 2006 2008 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources
General:
21 | 10-year Bond Yield | in % 22 | Stock Market | Straits Times Index Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
4.0 4,000 monetary sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat) and the
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). See below for details. Forecasts
based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
3.5 15 Inflation, annual variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).

3,000 Source: Singstat.
3.0 (CPI) in % (eop). Source: Singstat.
2,000
19 Domestic supply price index, annual variation in % (eop). 2004-2009.
2.5 Source: Singstat
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: MAS.
21 10-year bond yield in %. Jan. 2005 until the end of previous month.
2.0 1,000 Source: MAS.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
22 Daily index levels, Straits Times Index. Source: Singapore Exchange
Limited. Jan. 2008 until end of previous month.

23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
8 3
% SGD per USD
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011
6 ANZ 0.55 - 1.45 1.37
2 Capital Economics - - 1.35 1.36
4 Credit Suisse 0.55 1.50 1.35 1.30
1 DBS Bank 0.41 - 1.37 -
2 Deutsche Bank 0.50 1.50 1.33 1.27
Goldman Sachs 0.70 0.90 1.33 1.31
HSBC 0.65 1.10 1.39 1.34
0 0 ING 0.50 1.30 1.39 1.39
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan - - 1.36 1.34
Morgan Stanley 1.30 2.30 1.38 1.32
OCBC Bank 0.75 1.25 1.35 1.34
OSK-DMG Group 0.85 2.40 1.33 1.38
3 4
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Standard Chartered Bank 0.50 - 1.35 1.28
Consensus
Minimum UBS 0.80 1.25 1.39 1.35
Minimum
3 United Overseas Bank 1.10 - 1.36 -
2 Summary
Minimum 0.41 0.70 1.33 1.27
2 Maximum 1.30 3.00 1.45 1.39
Median 0.65 1.30 1.36 1.33
1 Consensus 0.72 1.56 1.36 1.33
1 History
30 days ago 0.72 1.64 1.36 1.33
60 days ago 0.78 1.69 1.36 1.34
0 0 90 days ago 0.97 1.91 1.35 1.34
27 | Exchange Rate | SGD per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | SGD per USD
2.0 1.6
1.8 1.5
1.5 1.4
Notes and sources

General:
1.3 1.3
monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat),
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and
Industry (MTI). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast.
29 | SGD/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | SGD/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts
1.8 1.8 23 Interbank 3-month interest rate in % (eop). Source: MAS.
Maximum Maximum 24 Quarterly Interbank 3-month interest rate in % (eop). Source: MAS.
Consensus Consensus
27 Exchange rate, SGD per USD (eop). Source: MAS.
1.6 1.6 28 Quarterly exchange rate, SGD per USD (eop). Source: MAS.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: MTI.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: MTI and
1.4 1.4
Singstat.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: MAS.
35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.
1.2 1.2
36 International reserves in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 36.9 35.1 34.6 39.8 335 380 300 340 - -
Credit Suisse 39.1 43.0 29.7 32.3 330 386 301 354 208 228
DBS Bank 32.0 34.0 - - - - - - 195 201
Deutsche Bank 43.3 54.3 40.1 48.5 334 380 294 332 220 256
Goldman Sachs 57.2 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 38.2 42.3 34.9 37.6 332 364 297 327 217 252
ING 44.0 45.0 49.0 51.0 321 354 272 303 200 210
JPMorgan 29.5 25.7 31.9 25.5 356 400 324 375 231 254
Morgan Stanley 41.9 49.0 - - - - - - - -
OCBC Bank 37.3 40.3 34.2 35.4 346 356 312 320 - -
OSK-DMG Group - - 30.4 30.4 - - - - - -
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - - -
UBS 40.0 40.0 30.0 30.1 - - - - 202 214
Summary
Minimum 28.0 25.7 29.7 25.5 321 354 272 303 195 201
Maximum 57.2 54.3 49.0 51.0 356 400 324 375 231 256
Median 38.7 40.0 34.4 36.5 334 372 299 329 210 228
Consensus 39.0 39.4 35.4 36.9 336 373 299 334 211 230
History
30 days ago 38.8 39.3 35.0 36.5 330 373 294 335 213 235
60 days ago 37.0 38.5 34.6 36.2 330 374 294 336 208 228
90 days ago 35.9 38.6 34.5 36.2 329 372 293 335 209 228
30 600 20
Trade Balance Singapore
Imports
20
400 15
10
200 10
0
Singapore
Asia (ex Japan)
-10 0 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 36 | Int. Reserves (USD bn) | evol. of fcst
40 30 250
2010
2011
35 15 225
30 0 200
25 -15 175
Singapore 2010
Asia (ex Japan) 2011
20 -30 150
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 1995 2000 2005 2010 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

Fact Sheet
General Data Singapore in the Region
Official name: Republic of Singapore Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Singapore (4.5m) Singapore Singapore
0.2% 2%
Korea Other
Other
Area (km2): 710 1.5% 10% Korea 14%
10%
Population (million, 2009 est.): 5.0
Indonesia
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.): 7,023 7% Indonesia
6%
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 3.1 China
India
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 7.5 15%
Language: Mandarin, English,
Malay and Tamil India China
38% 53%

100%
2004 2009
Manufacturing
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 77.2
27% 25%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 23.7 75%
Construction
75%
4% 5%
17% 16% Wholesale & Retail 50%

Trade
Energy (2007)
50%
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 2,293 12% 13%
Financial Services
25%
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 38.7 13% 14%
Business Services
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 9 0%

28% 26%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 907 Other Services 2003 2005 2007 2009
Transportation (2009) Trade Structure

Airports: 8
Chief Ports: Singapore
Japan
EU-27 USA
4% EU-27
9% 11%
12%
USA China
6% 20%
Japan
Political Data Other 8%
24%
President: Sellapan Rama Nathan Exports Imports
Other
China
19%
Last elections: 17 August 2005 12%
Next elections: August 2011 Latin

America
Latin
Monetary Authority, Chairman: Goh Chok Tong America 2%
3% Other Asia
39% Other Asia
31%

Moody’s: Aaa Stable
S&P: AAA Stable Other
Other
Fitch Ratings: AAA Stable manufactures
14%
57%
Chemicals
6%
Manufactur Machinery
ed goods and
Strengths Weaknesses Fishing
Exports 7% Imports equipment
6% 48%
• High-level education system • Small domestic market

Motor
Agriculture
vehicles
• High-tech and stable economy • Dependence on external 13%
and
Mineral
fuels
forestry
sector Basic 25%
• Excellent infra-structure and metals Other 4%
15% 2%
communications • Comparatively high labour
costs
• Low inflationary environment
• Lack of natural resources

FOCUSECONOMICS Taiwan September 2010
Taiwan
Taiwan
Outlook improves
• Growth remained strong in the second quarter, as the economy ex-
panded a faster-than-expected 12.5% over the same period last year.
Going forward, growth is likely to cool a bit, but will remain robust.
• Consensus Forecast panellists raised their growth outlook by 0.4

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages percentage points over last month and anticipate the economy to
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 expand 7.3% this year. For 2011, the panel expects economic growth
Population (million): 22.5 23.0 23.4 to moderate to 4.3%.
GDP (USD bn): 312 380 491
GDP growth (%): 3.9 3.0 5.2 • Inflation inched up from 1.2% in June to 1.3% in July. Consensus
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.0 -1.2 -2.2 Forecast participants expect inflation to average 1.3% this year, which
Inflation (%): 0.5 1.5 1.6
is unchanged over last month’s forecast. For next year, the panel
External Debt (% of GDP): 16.3 23.2 21.1 sees average inflation rising to 1.6%.
Ángel Talavera REAL SECTOR | Government upgrades growth forecast as economy

Senior Economist continues to surge
In the second quarter, gross domestic product surged 12.5% over the same
period last year. The reading came in below the 13.7% expansion recorded in
the first quarter (previously reported: +13.3% year-on-year) but well exceeded
market expectations, which had anticipated the economy would expand 10.5%.
That said, the result continued to be aided by a favourable base effect, as the
economy had plunged 6.9% in the second quarter of 2009.
GDP by Type Q2 2010 | variation in %
The second quarter figure was mainly fuelled by strong growth in the domestic
Imports 34.3 sector. Private consumption accelerated from a 3.1% increase in the first quarter
Exports 34.3
to a 4.4% expansion. Furthermore, gross fixed capital formation soared 30.8%
annually (Q1: +29.3% yoy). On the external side of the economy, both exports
Investment 30.8
and imports of goods and services expanded at the same 34.3% annual rate.
GDP 12.5
As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth was
Private consumption 4.4 +4.5 percentage points (Q1: +1.8 percentage points).
Total consumption 3.9
Government consumption 1.7

A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the strong growth suggested by
%
the annual figures, as the economy increased 1.8% over the previous quarter
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
in seasonally adjusted terms. Owing to the strong economic performance in
Note: Year-on-year changes in %. the first half of the year, the government recently revised its growth forecast for
Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics and
FocusEconomics calculations. the whole year to 8.2% (previously expected: +6.1%).
Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to expand 7.3% this year,
which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2011, the
panel anticipates economic growth to moderate to 4.3%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production continues to ease but remains

strong
In July, industrial production expanded 20.7% over the same month last year.
Industrial Production | variation in % The figure came in below the 24.7% expansion recorded in June (previously
reported: +24.3% year-on-year) but was broadly in line with market expectations,
75.0 70.1
which had anticipated industrial output would grow 21.0%.
50.0
47.8 The monthly slowdown was driven by slower growth in the manufacturing sector,
39.5
35.5 which expanded 22.2% (June: +26.5% yoy). Mining and quarrying slowed from
32.0 32.0 31.0
25.0
24.7
20.7
a 10.5% expansion in June to 8.4% growth. Finally, electricity, gas and water
%
supply added 5.2% (June: +1.3% yoy).
7.4
2.8
0.0
-7.2
A month-on-month comparison corroborates the deceleration suggested by
-9.0
annual figures, as industrial production declined 0.64% over the previous month
-25.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul in seasonally adjusted terms, which contrasted the 0.16% rise recorded in June.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production

index in %. The trend in industrial production continues to point up. As a result of the monthly
Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
and FocusEconomics calculations.
reading, annual average growth in industrial production jumped from 22.1% in
June to 25.0%. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate industrial production
to grow 19.7% this year.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation remains subdued

In July, consumer prices added 0.31% over the previous month. The reading
was broadly unchanged from the 0.34% price rise recorded in June but overshot
market expectations, which had anticipated prices would add only 0.10%. Higher
2.0 1.80 4.0
prices for food (+0.84% month-on-month) was the main driver behind the
monthly price rise.
1.0 0.84 2.0
0.41
0.53 As a result of the monthly reading, annual inflation inched up from 1.2% in
% 0.34 0.31 %
0.19
0.10 June to 1.3%. Meanwhile, the core inflation index, which excludes volatile
0.0 0.0
-0.16 categories such as fresh food and energy, added a more subdued 0.10% over
-0.46
-0.66 the previous month. As a result, annual core inflation inched up from 0.6% in
-1.0 -0.76 -2.0
-0.95
June to 0.7%. Finally, annual average inflation stepped up from minus 0.1% in
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) June to 0.2%, thus returning to positive territory for the first time in a year.
-2.0 -4.0
The government expects inflation to average 1.4% this year. Consensus

Note: Monthly and annual variation of consumer price index in %. Forecast panellists share this assessment and anticipate average inflation to
Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics and
FocusEconomics calculations. rise to 1.3% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For
2011, the panel expects average inflation to rise further to 1.6%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 353 376 398 383 388 422 456 491 522 566
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.9 1.5 2.1 -0.6 1.5 2.5 2.6 3.3 3.1 3.0
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 2.7 0.1 0.6 -11.2 -11.8 14.4 5.7 3.9 3.7 3.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 3.8 4.7 7.8 -1.8 -8.1 19.7 7.9 6.8 5.7 6.2
Money (annual variation of M1A in %) 7.4 2.9 2.8 2.1 21.8 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.2 0.7 3.3 1.3 -0.2 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 2.3 0.6 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %) 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.1 -0.7 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 1.7 6.5 8.4 -9.1 5.6 - - - - -
CB Discount Rate (%, eop) 2.25 2.75 3.38 2.00 1.25 1.64 2.02 1.94 2.12 2.28
Stock Market (variation of TAIEX in %) 6.7 19.5 8.7 -41.8 65.4 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, eop) 32.9 32.6 32.4 32.9 32.0 31.5 30.8 30.7 30.7 29.7
Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, average) 33.3 32.5 32.4 33.1 32.3 31.7 31.1 30.7 30.7 30.2
External Sector
Current Account (% of GDP) 5.0 7.0 8.3 6.6 11.0 8.0 7.2 6.9 7.4 7.4
Current Account (USD bn) 17.6 26.3 33.0 25.1 42.6 33.6 32.8 33.9 38.4 42.0
Exports (USD bn) 198 224 247 255 203 241 265 287 303 320
Imports (USD bn) 179 200 216 236 173 218 244 265 279 297
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -0.8 -7.1 -9.1 -6.9 -1.0 9.1 13.7 12.5 5.6 2.4
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 4.5 1.9 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 -1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3
CB Discount Rate (%, eop) 3.50 2.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.38 1.50 1.64
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 32.0 47.8 70.1 35.5 39.5 32.0 31.0 24.7 20.7 -
Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.2 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) -0.76 -0.46 0.10 0.53 -0.95 0.84 -0.16 0.34 0.31 -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) -1.6 -0.2 0.3 2.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 -
Exports (annual variation in %) 19.3 46.8 75.8 32.6 50.1 47.7 57.5 34.1 38.5 -

12 20
Taiwan
World
Chung-Hua Institute 6.9 4.8
6 10
0 0 DBS Bank 9.5 3.5
Taiwan Goldman Sachs 7.2 4.8
Asia (ex Japan) HSBC 7.3 4.9
World
-6 -10 ING 7.7 5.5
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 9.2 4.8
Polaris Securities 5.7 3.9
12 7
Maximum UBS 5.7 3.2
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus United Overseas Bank 7.5 4.6
6 Minimum
9 Minimum Summary
Minimum 4.5 3.2
5 Maximum 9.8 5.5
6 Median 7.2 4.2
4
Consensus 7.3 4.3
History
3 30 days ago 6.9 4.3
3
60 days ago 6.6 4.2
90 days ago 6.0 4.2
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul DGBAS (Aug. 2010) 8.2 -
IMF (July 2010) 7.7 4.3
ADB (July 2010) 5.9 4.0
9 30
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
6 15
3 0
Notes and sources
General:
0 -15 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All real
Taiwan
sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and
Asia (ex Japan)
Statistics (DGBAS) and National Statistics. See below for details. Fore-
casts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
-3 -30
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS
Source: DGBAS
2010 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS
2011 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS
18 months.
3 10
last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: National Statistics.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: National Statistics.
2 5 11 Balance of central and local government, % of GDP. Source: National
Statistics.
2010
last 18 months.
1 0 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Balance of central and local government, evolution of 2010 and 2011


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 2.0 2.0 18.0 5.0 - - - - - -
Chung-Hua Institute 2.4 2.9 15.8 8.6 - - 5.0 4.8 - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 2.8 3.0 20.4 8.5 16.1 5.0 5.4 4.9 -3.8 -2.0
Credit Suisse 2.5 3.0 14.5 6.0 - - 5.0 4.0 - -
Daiwa Capital Markets 5.5 4.7 16.2 5.5 - - - - -2.9 -2.7
DBS Bank - - - - - - 5.0 4.6 -2.4 -1.8
Deutsche Bank 2.3 2.5 12.8 3.9 15.0 8.0 5.0 4.5 -3.7 -3.3
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -2.2 -
HSBC 1.6 2.8 13.4 5.7 18.6 8.2 5.3 4.7 -2.0 -1.1
ING - - - - - - - - -3.2 -2.7
JPMorgan - - - - 29.8 11.0 5.2 4.5 -1.5 -1.0
Morgan Stanley - - 6.9 5.6 - - - - -2.0 -1.5
Polaris Securities 1.6 1.4 13.7 5.8 18.8 7.3 5.1 4.9 - -
UBS 1.7 1.0 12.4 2.3 - - - - -3.9 -4.2
Summary
Minimum 1.6 1.0 6.9 2.3 15.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 -3.9 -4.2
Maximum 5.5 4.7 20.4 8.6 29.8 11.0 5.4 4.9 -1.5 -1.0
Median 2.3 2.8 14.1 5.7 18.6 8.0 5.0 4.6 -2.6 -2.0
Consensus 2.5 2.6 14.4 5.7 19.7 7.9 5.1 4.6 -2.7 -2.2
History
30 days ago 2.3 2.4 14.1 5.7 19.7 7.9 5.2 4.6 -2.9 -2.3
60 days ago 2.4 2.4 12.9 5.4 17.8 7.5 5.2 4.6 -2.9 -2.3
90 days ago 2.4 2.6 9.4 4.9 14.9 7.6 5.3 4.9 -3.1 -2.5

30 6 4
Taiwan
Taiwan Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) 5 World
15 0
4
3
0 -4
2
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
-15 1 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
20 7 -1
2010 2010
2010
2011 2011
2011
16
6 -2
12
5 -3
8
4 4 -4

Monetary Sector | Inflation, Money, Wholesale Prices and Stock Market
12 10
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan) ANZ - -
Chung-Hua Institute 1.5 1.5
5
3
0 DBS Bank 0.9 1.4
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan) HSBC 1.1 2.2
-3 -5 ING 1.5 1.8
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 1.0 1.8
Polaris Securities 1.2 0.4
3 4
UBS 0.9 1.1
Maximum
Consensus United Overseas Bank 1.5 2.0
2 Minimum Summary
3
Minimum 0.9 0.4
1 Maximum 1.9 2.2
2 Median 1.2 1.7
0
Consensus 1.3 1.6
History
1 30 days ago 1.3 1.6
-1
Maximum 60 days ago 1.3 1.6
Consensus 90 days ago 1.3 1.6
Minimum
-2 0 Additional Forecasts
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul IMF (Apr. 2010) 1.5 1.5
ADB (Mar. 2010) 1.5 1.6
19 | Core and Wholesale Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation
10 30
Core Price Index
WPI
5 20
0 10
-5 0
-10 -10 Notes and sources

1995 2000 2005 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
General:
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | TAIEX monetary sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget,
Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and the Central Bank of the Republic
400 10,000 of China. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Con-
sensus Forecast.

%. Source: DGBAS.
300 8,000
%. Source: DGBAS.
200 6,000 19 Core and wholesale price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 1995-
2009. Source: DGBAS.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: Central
Bank.
21 Daily MSCI index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end of previous
100 4,000 month. Source: MSCI Barra.
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 22 Daily index levels, TAIEX. Jan. 2008 until end of previous month.
Source: Taiwan Stock Exchange.

6 4
% TWD per USD
ANZ 1.63 - 33.3 32.2
4 3
Chung-Hua Institute - - 30.9 30.6
2 2 Credit Suisse - - 31.2 30.5
Daiwa Capital Markets 1.75 2.00 31.3 30.6
DBS Bank 1.75 - 31.7 -
Deutsche Bank 1.63 - 31.5 30.5
0 1 Goldman Sachs - - 31.0 30.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC 1.68 2.13 31.0 -
ING 1.25 1.75 32.0 32.0
JPMorgan 1.88 2.38 31.0 31.0
3
Morgan Stanley - - - -
3
Maximum Polaris Securities - - - -
Consensus Standard Chartered Bank 1.63 2.13 31.0 30.0
Minimum UBS 1.63 2.00 32.0 31.0
Summary
Minimum 1.25 1.75 30.5 30.0
Maximum 1.88 2.38 33.3 32.2
1 1 Median 1.63 2.00 31.3 30.6
Maximum
Consensus 1.64 2.02 31.5 30.8
Consensus History
Minimum
30 days ago 1.64 2.00 31.6 30.7
0 0 60 days ago 1.63 2.13 31.1 30.3
90 days ago 1.55 2.00 30.8 29.9
27 | Exchange Rate | TWD per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | TWD per USD
40 35
35 33
30 31
Notes and sources
General:
25 29 monetary and external sector data are from the Directorate-General of
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and the Central Bank of the
Republic of China. See below for details. Forecasts based on
29 | TWD/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | TWD/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts
40 36
23 Interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Borrowing Rate in % (eop).
Maximum Source: Central Bank.
Maximum Consensus
Consensus 24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Borrowing Rate in %
Minimum
Minimum (eop). Source: Central Bank.
35 32 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, TWD per USD (eop). Source: Central Bank.
28 Quarterly exchange rate, TWD per USD (eop). Source: Central Bank.
30 28 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: Central Bank.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Central
Bank.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: Central Bank.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Central Bank.
36 External debt as % GDP. Source: Central Bank.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Chung-Hua Institute 45.2 47.1 1.9 1.8 27 30 25 29 - -
Credit Suisse 33.8 28.3 26.5 24.3 292 331 265 307 388 417
DBS Bank 37.0 34.0 24.0 22.0 286 314 262 292 376 400
Deutsche Bank 34.7 27.6 23.1 15.5 265 294 242 279 399 435
Goldman Sachs 30.4 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 32.1 38.4 27.6 37.4 264 298 236 260 379 422
ING 50.0 48.0 33.0 31.0 234 262 201 231 345 355
JPMorgan 33.1 35.0 24.7 25.8 246 282 221 256 388 430
Morgan Stanley 25.8 23.7 - - - - - - - -
Polaris Securities 31.3 32.7 30.1 20.6 244 252 214 232 - -
UBS 26.5 20.0 22.1 18.2 275 289 253 271 370 390
Summary
Minimum 25.8 20.0 1.9 1.8 27 30 25 29 345 355
Maximum 50.0 48.0 33.0 37.4 292 331 265 307 399 435
Median 32.8 32.0 24.7 22.0 264 286 236 260 376 405
Consensus 33.6 32.8 23.0 21.1 241 265 218 244 376 405
History
30 days ago 33.3 32.3 23.6 22.3 262 289 238 267 376 405
60 days ago 33.6 32.5 24.1 22.3 255 282 231 260 377 404
90 days ago 33.0 31.8 23.8 21.8 247 273 223 251 377 406
20 400 25
Taiwan Trade Balance Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan) Exports Asia (ex Japan)
Imports
300 20
10
200 15
0
100 10
-10 0 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
35 30 60
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
15
30 40
25 20
-15
2010
2011 Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
20 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Taiwan in the Region

Official name: Taiwan / Republic
of China Taiwan
Taiwan
Capital: Taipei (2.6 m) 1%
4%
Korea
Other cities: Kaohsiung (1.5 m) 2%
Other Other
9% Korea
12%
Taichung (1.1 m) 10%
Indonesia
Tainan (0.8 m) 7% Indonesia
6%
Area (km2): 35,980
China
Population (million, 2009 est.): 23.0 43%
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) 640 India
15%
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 78.0 India China
53%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 3.9 38%
Language: Mandarin Chinese and

Taiwanese

100%
2004 2009
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 117 100% 1.9 1.5
Agriculture, Forestry
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 69.8 and Fishing
22.5 75%
26.6
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 21.6 Manufacturing
75%
50%
17.9 Wholesale and Retail
Energy (2007) 18.2 Trade
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 479 7.6 Finance and Insurance 25%
50% 6.7
8.8
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 225 8.6
7.2
Real Estate
0%
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 215 25% Public Administration
and Defense
-25%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 962 Other
2003 2005 2007 2009
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 308 0% Net exports Investment
Chief Ports: Chilung, Hualien, Kaohsiung
Asia (ex-
China)
41% Asia (ex-
China)
41%
Political Data Other Other
10% 25%
President: Ma Ying-jeou Exports Imports
Last elections: 22 March 2008
EU-27
Next elections: March 2012 10%
Mainland
Central Bank President: Perng Fai-nan China
EU-27 Mainland
United 9% China
States 27% United
14%
12% States
11%

Moody’s: Aa3 Stable
S&P: AA- Stable Consumer
Non- Other
Fitch Ratings: A+ Stable Heavy 1% goods
9%
Industries
16% Capital
goods
15%
Strengths Weaknesses Exports Imports

• Well educated labour force • Limited natural resources
• Strong legal system • Risk of armed conflict with Raw
Materials
Heavy
China Industries 76%
• Open market economy 83%
• Lack of representation in
international organisations

FOCUSECONOMICS Thailand September 2010
Thailand
Thailand
Outlook improves
• Gross domestic product expanded 9.1% in the second quarter,
prompting the government to raise the official forecast for 2010 eco-
nomic growth to 6.5% - 7.5%, up from a previous 3.5% - 4.5% projec-
tion. The Central Bank also revised its forecast and now shares the
government’s assessment.

• Consensus Forecast participants revised their 2010 growth projec-
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 tions upwards and now expect the economy to grow 6.8% this year,
Population (million): 62.2 65.2 68.1
GDP (USD bn): 134 233 358 which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2011,
GDP per capita (US$): 2,148 3,568 5,248 the panel sees economic growth moderating to 4.4%.
GDP growth (%): 5.1 3.0 5.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.1 -1.3 -3.1
Inflation (%): 1.7 3.2 3.0 • Inflation inched up to 3.4% in July and the Central Bank continued the
Current Account (% of GDP): 4.2 2.3 2.8 monetary tightening cycle by raising policy rates from 1.50% to 1.75%
External Debt (% of GDP): 47.7 26.8 21.3
in its 25 August meeting. Consensus Forecast panellists expect infla-
tion to average 3.4% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from
last month’s projection. In 2011, the panel expects inflation to fall to
3.1%.
Ricardo Aceves REAL SECTOR | Economic activity expands more than expected
Economist In the second quarter, gross domestic product expanded 9.1% over the same
period last year. The reading came in below the 12.0% expansion registered
in the previous quarter, but overshot market expectations, which had antici-
pated the economy would rise 8.0%. In addition, the reading was aided by a
favourable base of comparison, as the economy had contracted 4.9% in the
second quarter 2009.
GDP by Type Q2 2010 | variation in % The slowdown in the second quarter was the result of a weaker expansion of
the domestic demand, which was adversely affected by violent anti-govern-
Imports 23.6 ment protests. In contrast, the net contribution from the external sector im-
Exports 22.3 proved. On the domestic side, private consumption accelerated and expanded
Gross Fixed Investment 12.2
6.5% (Q1: +4.0% year-on-year) while government consumption increased
GDP 9.1
an annual 6.3%, down from the 7.3% expansion seen in the first quarter.
Gross fixed capital formation decelerated somewhat and grew a 12.2% an-
Domestic Demand 7.5
nually (Q1: +12.9 year-on-year). Finally, the domestic sector was adversely
Private Consumption 6.5
affected by a marked downward shift in inventories.
Total Consumption 6.5
Government Consumption 6.3

In the external sector, exports accelerated compared to with previous quarter,
0.0 10.0 20.0 % 30.0
while imports slowed somewhat. Exports expanded 22.3% annually (Q1:
+16.2 yoy), while imports grew an annual 23.6% in the second quarter, well
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economics (BTE) and FocusEconomics calcu- below the 31.5% expansion in the January-March period. As a result, the net
lations.
contribution from the external sector to overall growth swung from a 2.4 per-
centage-point contraction in the first quarter to a positive 2.8 percentage
points in the second quarter.
At the sector level, the second quarter reflected a further deterioration in

agriculture, as well as slower growth in industry and services. A quarter-on-
quarter comparison confirms the deceleration suggested by annual figures,

as the economy expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.16% over the previous

quarter, which was down from the 3.30% expansion registered in the first
quarter.
According to the secretary general of the National Economic and Social De-
velopment Board, the economy would have grown an annual 12.0% in the
second quarter without the political unrest, which caused the temporary shut-
down of several businesses in the commercial and financial district of
Bangkok.
Meanwhile, the government recently raised its growth forecast for this year to
6.5% - 7.5%, up from the previous 3.5% - 4.5% projection. In the same vein,
the Central Bank lifted its 2010 growth forecast in its July inflation report from
the 4.3% to 5.8% range expected previously to the current 6.5% - 7.5%. The
Bank stated that for the rest of the year, the economy will continue to recover
on the back of strong fundamentals, gradual growth of the global economy,
as well as improving consumer and investor confidence, reflecting easing
political risks.
Consensus Forecast participants broadly share the Central Bank’s assess-

ment and anticipate overall economic activity to expand 6.8%, which is up 0.8
percentage points from last month’s forecast. Next year, participants expect
economic growth to moderate to 4.4%.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production accelerates more than expected in

June
In June, manufacturing production expanded 21.3% over the same month
last year. The figure came in above the revised 17.5% rise (previously re-
ported: 17.2% year-on-year) registered in May and beat market expectations,
which saw industrial output adding 18.5%. Furthermore, June’s reading
marked the seventh consecutive month of double-digit growth in industrial
Manufacturing Production | variation in % production.
15.0 18.0
The main drivers behind June’s improvement were a sharp rebound in foods
MoM s.a. (left scale) Annual Average (right scale)
10.66
production, which expanded 8.9%, contrasting the 18.4% contraction regis-
9.56
10.0 12.0 tered in May. In addition, the production of textiles and textiles products in-
4.50
5.31 creased 8.5% in June, contrasting the 2.8% decline in May. Meanwhile, elec-
5.0 6.0
%
2.09 1.82
2.75
%
tronic products output also continued to expand, yet at a slower pace (May:
1.00
0.11
0.0 0.0 +14.6% yoy; June: +12.9% yoy).
-2.91
-5.0 -6.0
-4.09 -4.01 -3.93
A month-on month comparison confirms the improvement suggested by
annual figures, as manufacturing production rose a sharp 5.31% over the
-10.0 -12.0
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, which contrasted the 3.93%
decline recorded in May. Meanwhile, on a quarterly basis manufacturing out-
Note: Annual average and seasonally adjusted month-on-month variation of
manufacturing production index in %. put expanded 20.2% in the second quarter over the same period last year,
Source: Bank of Thailand (BoT) and FocusEconomics calculations.
falling short the 31.2% expansion recorded in the first quarter. As a result of
June’s reading, the trend in manufacturing production continued to show a
strong recovery, as the annual average growth in manufacturing output
jumped from 11.6% in May to 14.2% in June. Consensus Forecast panellists
anticipate manufacturing production to rise 13.9% this year.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation inches up in July

In July, consumer prices added 0.09% over the previous month, which came
in at a fraction the 0.28% increase recorded in June. The main driver behind
July’s subdued reading were lower prices for clothing and footwear, which
were nearly offset by an increase in prices for food and beverages, especially
for rice.

Despite July’s subdued price increase, annual headline inflation stepped

inched up a notch from 3.3% in June to 3.4% in July, undershooting market
expectations, which had expected inflation rising 3.6%. Core inflation, which
strips out more volatile items such as fresh food and energy, added 0.10%
over the previous month. As a result, annual core inflation inched up from
1.1% in June to 1.2% in July.
The inflation trend continues to point upwards, as annual average inflation

jumped from 1.6% in June to 2.3% in July, which marked the highest reading
since May 2009. Nonetheless, at the current level, inflation remains within
Inflation | Consumer Price Index the Central Bank’s target range of 0.5% - 3.0%, which is based on quarterly
average core inflation (the current quarterly average is 1.1%).
0.6 0.57 0.56 0.56 6.0
Meanwhile, at its last monetary policy meeting on 25 August, the Bank of

0.38
0.4 3.0
Thailand (BoT) decided to raise the one-day repurchase rate by 25 basis
0.28 0.28
points for the second consecutive month from 1.50% to 1.75%, in a decision
0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19
0.2 0.0 expected by the market. Monetary authorities last raised the policy rate in 14
% 0.09
% July, when the BoT began tightening monetary policy after rates had remained
0.00
0.0 -3.0 at the record low of 1.25% since April 2009. Monetary authorities argued that
-0.09
the economy is recovering at a faster-than-expected pace and that inflation-
-0.2 Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) -6.0 ary pressures are likely to rise in 2011 amid strong domestic demand and
rising production costs. In addition, the BoT Assistant Governor Paiboon
Kittisrikangwan said that “interest rates remain very low compared to eco-
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economics. nomic growth even after the increase” and that “rates are on an upward
trend”. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 20 October.
In its last inflation report, monetary authorities expected annual average infla-
tion to rise to 4.8% this year and to moderate to 4.3% in 2011. Consensus
Forecast panellists expect average inflation rising to 3.4% by the end of the
year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s Consensus Fore-
cast. For 2011, panellists anticipate that average inflation will moderate to
3.1%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 176 207 247 272 264 297 330 357 386 419
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 4.6 5.1 4.9 2.5 -2.2 6.8 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 4.6 3.2 1.7 2.7 -1.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.7 4.3
Fixed Investment (ann. variation in %) 10.5 3.9 1.5 1.2 -9.0 8.5 6.5 8.8 8.8 7.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.6 1.1 -1.7 -1.1 -4.4 -3.6 -3.3 -3.6 -2.1 -2.8
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 4.5 4.7 2.2 5.4 -0.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 9.2 7.0 3.3 12.4 -3.8 - - - - -
1-day Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 4.00 5.00 3.25 2.75 1.25 2.00 2.60 3.44 3.84 3.98
Stock Market (SET variation in %) 6.1 -4.7 26.2 -47.6 63.2 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (THB per USD, eop) 41.2 36.2 33.9 35.1 33.5 31.8 31.3 31.8 31.3 31.2
Exchange Rate (THB per USD, average) 40.3 37.9 34.6 33.4 34.3 32.6 31.6 31.5 31.5 31.3
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.3 1.1 6.4 0.6 7.7 4.4 3.4 2.0 2.2 2.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -7.6 2.3 15.7 1.6 20.3 13.1 11.4 7.2 8.4 8.5
Trade Balance (USD bn) -8.3 1.0 11.6 0.2 19.4 10.7 8.4 7.7 11.0 13.1
Exports (USD bn) 109 128 150 175 151 181 198 221 248 270
Imports (USD bn) 118 127 138 175 131 170 189 211 237 257
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.9 -4.2 -7.1 -4.9 -2.7 5.9 12.0 9.1 5.3 3.0
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 7.3 2.2 -0.3 -2.8 -2.2 1.9 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.4
1-day Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 3.75 2.75 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.63 2.00
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.0 -1.5 9.5 2.8 3.7 4.3 5.3 1.5 3.4 4.3
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 9.5 36.1 29.0 30.6 33.6 21.9 17.5 21.3 - -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.28 -0.09 0.57 0.56 0.19 0.56 0.19 0.28 0.09 -

15 15
Thailand Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
World
8
CIMB Thai Bank 6.5 4.0
0
0
DBS Bank 8.0 4.0
-8 Deutsche Bank 5.5 4.1
Thailand -5 Goldman Sachs 4.2 4.5
Asia (ex Japan)
HSBC 7.6 5.3
World
-15 -10 ING 6.8 5.2
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 8.5 5.0
Kasikorn Research Center 6.2 3.5
Ktzmico 7.5 5.5
9 8
Maximum Phatra Securities 6.7 4.2
Consensus Standard Chartered Bank 6.3 4.5
Minimum
6
TISCO Securities 7.4 3.5
6
UBS 7.7 4.0
4 Summary
Minimum 4.2 3.5
3 Maximum 8.5 5.5
2 Median 6.7 4.4
Maximum Consensus 6.8 4.4
Consensus
Minimum
History
0 0 30 days ago 6.0 4.4
90 days ago 4.7 4.5
Central Bank (Apr. 2010) 4.3-5.8 3.0-5.0
10 25
IMF (July 2010) 7.0 4.5
ADB (July 2010) 5.5 4.5
5
0
0
-5
-25 Notes and sources
-10
Thailand Thailand
General:
-15 -50
sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT). See below for details.
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %.

2010 4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2010 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
2011
2011
8 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
4
18 months.
6 last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %.
3 10 Unemployment, % of active population.
11 Balance of central government, % of GDP.
5
last 18 months.
2 3 months.
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Balance of the central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts


Consumption Investment Industry Fiscal Balance
% variation % variation % variation % of GDP
ANZ - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 4.0 3.0 7.0 5.0 - - -4.0 -3.5
CIMB Thai Bank 3.1 2.8 10.0 8.5 - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.0 4.1 5.3 10.0 - - -2.9 -2.9
Credit Suisse 3.0 3.8 9.5 5.0 - - -4.5 -3.6
Daiwa Capital Markets 7.4 4.5 9.2 4.1 - - -4.0 -3.5
DBS Bank 4.8 2.8 8.2 6.5 - - -3.0 -2.5
Deutsche Bank 2.5 2.7 8.2 4.2 - - -4.8 -3.9
Goldman Sachs 3.3 3.6 7.9 4.8 5.9 6.6 -3.7 -3.0
HSBC 3.2 4.1 8.4 4.5 15.7 6.5 -2.5 -1.6
ING 2.5 3.5 2.9 4.8 4.9 5.9 -4.2 -3.7
JPMorgan - - - - 20.1 8.7 -2.5 -3.0
Kasikorn Research Center 3.5 2.8 8.1 8.5 14.0 6.0 -4.5 -4.0
Ktzmico 5.3 4.4 12.4 10.2 23.0 14.0 -3.0 -3.8
Morgan Stanley - - 6.0 7.2 - - -3.8 -
Phatra Securities 3.7 4.1 9.9 7.5 - - -2.0 -3.5
TISCO Securities 3.5 4.6 12.1 6.1 - - -4.2 -3.0
UBS 3.8 4.7 10.2 6.4 - - -3.4 -3.4
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 2.5 2.7 2.9 4.1 4.9 5.9 -4.8 -4.0
Maximum 7.4 4.7 12.4 10.2 23.0 14.0 -2.0 -1.6
Median 3.5 3.8 8.3 6.2 14.9 6.6 -3.8 -3.5
Consensus 3.8 3.7 8.5 6.5 13.9 8.0 -3.6 -3.3
History
30 days ago 3.4 3.7 7.5 6.3 10.9 6.7 -3.8 -3.4
60 days ago 3.2 3.6 7.5 6.5 9.3 7.4 -4.0 -3.4
90 days ago 3.5 3.4 7.1 6.7 8.3 7.4 -4.4 -3.6

20 5 4
Thailand
Asia (ex Japan)
4
10 0
3
2
0 -4
1 Thailand
Thailand Asia (ex Japan)
World
Asia (ex Japan)
-10 0 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
16 4 0
2010
2011
2010
2011
3
12 -2
8 -4
1
2010
2011
4 0 -6

12 12
Thailand Thailand
ANZ - -
8
CIMB Thai Bank 3.1 1.5
6
4
0 DBS Bank 3.0 2.5
HSBC 3.5 3.7
-4 -6 ING 3.0 2.7
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 4.8 4.0
Kasikorn Research Center 3.5 3.2
Ktzmico 3.3 3.0
8 5
Maximum Phatra Securities 3.2 2.8
Consensus Maximum
Minimum Consensus Standard Chartered Bank 3.2 3.7
Minimum
6 4
TISCO Securities 3.5 3.4
UBS 3.3 2.3
4 3 Summary
Minimum 1.9 1.5
Maximum 4.8 4.4
2 2 Median 3.3 3.1
Consensus 3.4 3.1
History
0 1 30 days ago 3.3 3.0
90 days ago 3.4 3.1
19 | Core and Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation
Central Bank (Apr. 2010) 3.3-4.8 2.3-4.3
15 40
IMF (Apr. 2010) 3.2 1.9
Core Price Index
PPI
ADB (Mar. 2010) 3.5 3.0
30
10
20
5
10
0
0
-5 -10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources
General:
21 | 10-Year Bond Yield | in % 22 | Stock Market | SET Index Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
8 1,000 monetary sector data are from the Bureau of Trade and Economics (BTE)
and the Bank of Thailand (BoT). See below for details. Forecasts based
800 15 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in

6 %. Source: BTE.
600
(CPI) in %. Source: BTE.
4
19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 2004-
400 2009 Source: BTE.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009 Source: BoT.
21 10-Year Bond Yield. January 2005 until the end of previous month.
2 200 Source: BoT.
2005 2006 2008 2010 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
22 Monthly index levels, SET Index. January 2000 until end of previous
month. Source: The Stock Exchange of Thailand.

15 6
% THB per USD
ANZ - - 33.9 32.7
10 4
CIMB Thai Bank 2.25 1.30 32.5 33.0
Credit Suisse 2.00 3.00 31.8 31.0
5 2
DBS Bank 2.25 - 32.2 -
Deutsche Bank 1.75 2.25 32.0 31.5
Goldman Sachs 2.20 2.90 32.0 31.2
0 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 2.00 2.00 31.0 30.5
ING 1.75 2.25 32.4 32.5
JPMorgan 1.75 2.25 31.7 -
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst Kasikorn Research Center 2.00 3.00 31.0 30.4
4 5 Ktzmico - - 30.8 31.5
Maximum
Maximum Consensus Morgan Stanley - - 32.3 30.7
Consensus Minimum
Minimum
Phatra Securities 1.75 2.50 32.0 32.5
3 4 Standard Chartered Bank 2.00 2.50 31.5 30.2
TISCO Securities 2.00 3.00 32.0 30.6
UBS 1.75 2.75 33.0 31.0
Summary
Minimum 1.75 1.30 29.5 29.0
1 2 Maximum 2.75 3.75 33.9 33.0
Median 2.00 2.63 32.0 31.2
Consensus 2.00 2.60 31.8 31.3
0 1 History
30 days ago 1.88 2.51 32.0 31.3
60 days ago 1.84 2.63 32.1 31.7
27 | Exchange Rate | THB per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | THB per USD 90 days ago 1.89 2.74 32.0 31.5
50 36
40 34
30 32
20 30
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Notes and sources
General:
29 | THB/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | THB/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT).
40 40 Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum 23 Interest rate, 1-Day Repurchase Rate in % (eop).
37 37 24 Quarterly interest rate, 1-Day Repurchase Rate in % (eop).
27 Exchange rate, THB per USD (eop).
34 34 28 Quarterly exchange rate, THB per USD (eop).
31 Current account balance as % of GDP.
31 31
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn.
33 International reserves, months of imports.
34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecast
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 35 Exports, annual variation in %.
36 External debt as % of GDP.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
CIMB Thai Bank - - 15.1 13.2 189 208 174 195 - -
Credit Suisse 9.0 6.4 10.5 9.4 178 193 167 184 149 159
DBS Bank 16.0 12.0 13.0 10.0 189 204 176 194 - -
Deutsche Bank 12.5 10.3 9.7 6.9 178 192 168 185 159 177
Goldman Sachs 10.7 10.8 9.7 10.4 174 186 165 176 159 180
HSBC 11.4 10.3 8.4 8.7 179 191 171 183 158 179
ING 9.0 7.0 6.0 3.0 161 181 155 178 - -
JPMorgan 15.0 15.6 17.1 17.2 180 199 163 182 146 151
Kasikorn Research Center 11.2 7.4 10.4 5.9 188 203 177 197 - -
Ktzmico - - 7.0 2.7 171 194 164 191 - -
Morgan Stanley 17.2 14.0 7.8 7.1 - - - - - -
Phatra Securities 12.0 8.2 11.4 6.4 186 204 174 198 - -
TISCO Securities 11.4 9.9 11.8 5.9 189 203 177 197 - -
UBS 9.4 14.1 10.4 11.6 194 200 183 188 153 169
Summary
Minimum 9.0 6.4 6.0 2.7 161 181 155 176 146 151
Maximum 23.0 20.6 17.1 17.2 194 215 183 209 159 180
Median 12.0 10.7 10.5 7.9 180 199 171 188 154 164
Consensus 13.1 11.4 10.7 8.4 181 198 170 189 154 167
History
30 days ago 12.2 10.2 10.2 8.3 179 197 169 188 154 165
60 days ago 11.0 8.8 10.2 8.1 178 196 168 188 158 165
90 days ago 11.7 7.6 10.4 6.0 173 193 162 187 152 162
20 300 20
Trade Balance
Thailand Thailand
Exports
Imports
200
10 15
100
0 10
0
-10 -100 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
14 30 100
2010
2011
15 75
10
0 50
6
-15 25
Thailand Thailand
2 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Thailand in the Region
Official name: Kingdom of Thailand Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Bangkok (5.7 m) Thailand
Other cities: Samut Prakan (0.4 m) 2% Thailand
3% Other
Other
9% 23%
Area (km2): 514,000
Indonesia
Population (million, 2009 est.): 66.0 7% Indonesia
6%
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) 128 China
44%
India
Language: Thai, English India China
38% 53%

100%
2004 2009
9.6 8.9
Agriculture, hunting,
forestry, fishing
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 1.5 75%
75%
Electricity, Gas and
38.7 39.0 Water Supply
Energy (2007) 50%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,910 Manufacturing
50%
14.0 13.7
25%
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 135
Household Goods
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 345 34.4 34.8 0%
Other
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 947 2003 2005 2007 2009
Chief Ports: Bangkok, Laem Chabang EU-27
USA
EU-27
13% 8%
USA 6%
Japan
11% Japan
11%
19%
Political Data
Prime Minister: Abhisit Vejjajiva Exports China Other Imports

15% 35%
Last elections: 23 December 2007 Other China
26%
Next elections: December 2011 12%
Central Bank Governor: Tarisa Watanagase

Other Other
Asia Asia
24% 20%

Moody’s: Baa1 Negative
S&P: BBB+ Negative
Fitch Ratings: BBB Stable
Resource based
products 12%
Raw Materials
and
Other: intermediate
Labour
intensive prod. 40% goods: 31%
Strengths Weaknesses Exports 11% Imports
• Sound economic policy • Weak communications and Other
manufactured prod.
Capital goods
21%
information technology 6%
• Diversified trade structure High Tech prod.
Agricultural prod
Capital
and mining.
• Profund political divisions 61%
9% Consumer goods:
• Competitive tourism industry goods: 8% 21%
• Financial system vulnerability Other 1%

FOCUSECONOMICS Vietnam September 2010
Vietnam
Vietnam
Outlook stable
• Fitch Ratings lowered Vietnam’s debt rating from BB- to B+, with a
stable outlook, as the country could face economic and financial
instability due to the deterioration of its finances and a weak banking
system. To maintain control of trade deficit, the State Bank of Vietnam
devalued the exchange rate from 18,544 to 18,932.
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 • Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy to grow 6.5%
Population (million): 79.8 85.2 90.8 this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2011,
GDP (USD bn): 37 74 132
the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 7.0%.
GDP per capita (USD): 460 861 1,453
GDP growth (%): 7.2 7.3 6.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 -2.0 -3.4 • In August, annual inflation remained unchanged at July’s 8.2%. Panellists
Inflation (%): 2.6 10.8 7.7
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.6 -5.6 -6.0
expect inflation to average 9.9% this year, which is unchanged from
External Debt (% of GDP): 39.6 32.3 26.7 last month’s projection. In 2011, the panel expects inflation to moderate
to 8.7%.
Joan Enric Domene

Economist
1 | GDP | % variation 2 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 3 | Inflation | in %

12 3 30
0 20
6
-3 10
0
-6 0
Vietnam Vietnam
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) Vietnam
World World Asia (ex Japan)
-6 -9 -10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts 5 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst 6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts
8 -2 12
2010
2011
7 -4 10
6 -6 8
2010 2010
2011 2011
5 -8 6
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 109


Annual Data 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Real Sector
GDP per capita (USD) 440 489 554 637 724 836 1,050 1,056 1,149 1,267
GDP (USD bn) 35 40 45 53 61 71 91 92 102 114
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) 7.1 7.3 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.5 6.2 5.3 6.5 7.0
Private Consumption (ann. variation in %) 7.6 8.0 7.1 7.3 8.3 10.8 9.2 4.8 7.3 7.3
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 12.9 11.9 10.4 9.8 9.9 24.2 3.8 5.5 6.8 6.8
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 14.8 16.8 16.6 17.1 16.8 16.7 13.9 6.6 11.3 10.1
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 4.0 3.0 9.5 8.4 6.6 12.6 19.9 5.8 - -
Base Rate (%, eop) 6.45 6.62 7.50 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.50 8.00 9.39 9.50
Exchange Rate (VND per USD, eop) 15,403 15,646 15,777 15,916 16,055 16,020 16,997 18,475 19,484 19,835
Exchange Rate (VND per USD, average) 15,280 15,510 15,736 15,859 15,994 16,077 16,313 17,832 18,979 19,659
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -4.9 -2.1 -1.1 -0.3 -9.8 -9.3 -7.8 -7.8 -6.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.6 -1.9 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 -7.0 -8.4 -7.3 -7.9 -7.2
Exports (USD bn) 16.7 20.1 26.5 32.4 39.8 48.6 62.7 56.6 69.0 80.8
Imports (USD bn) 19.7 25.3 32.0 36.8 44.9 62.8 80.7 68.8 81.5 94.1
Exports (annual variation in %) 11.2 20.6 31.4 22.5 22.7 21.9 29.1 -9.7 20.5 17.1
Imports (annual variation in %) 21.8 27.9 26.6 15.0 22.1 39.8 28.6 -14.7 20.4 15.4
International Reserves (USD bn) 4.1 6.4 7.2 9.3 13.6 23.7 23.9 16.0 15.3 19.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) 6.5 5.6 3.1 4.5 6.0 6.9 5.8 6.2 7.0 7.0
Exchange Rate (VND per USD, eop) 16,495 16,997 17,720 17,801 17,481 18,475 18,544 18,544 19,318 19,484
7 | Exchange Rate | VND per USD 8 | Current Account | % of GDP

20,000 10
18,000
0
-5
16,000
-10
Vietnam
Asia (ex Japan) Notes and sources
14,000 -15 General:
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2011 unless otherwise stated.
All data are from General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO, Tong
Cuc Thong Ke), the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) and the Minis-
try of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on
Focuseconomics Consensus Forecast.
9 | VND/USD | evolution of fcst 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
21,000 -2 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: GSO.

2010 2 Balance of non-financial public sector, % of GDP. Source: Min-
2011 istry of Finance.
3 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index
20,000 -4 (CPI) in %. Source: GSO.
4 GDP, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18
months.
19,000 -6 5 Balance of non-financial public sector, evolution of 2010 and
2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
6 Inflation, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
18 months.
18,000 -8 7 Exchange rate, VND per USD (eop). Source: SBV.
2010
2011
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: GSO.
9 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during
17,000 -10
the last 18 months.
10 Current account balance in USD billion, evolution of 2010
and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Vietnam in the Region

Official name: Socialist Republic
Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Vietnam
Capital: Ha Noi (3.2 m) Vietnam Malaysia Vietnam
3% 1%
Other cities: Ho Chi Minh City (6.2 m) 1% Other
Other 23%
Haiphong (1.8 m) 8% Malaysia
Indonesia 2%
Area (km2): 331,212 7% Indonesia
Population (million, 2009 est.): 88.6 6%
China
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) 268 43%
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 1.2 India
15%
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 71.7
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 9.7 India China
38% 53%
Language: Vietnamese

100%
2004 2009
Trade
75%
8.6 9.2 Construction
75%
50%
Energy (2007) 21.8
24.9 Manufacturing
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 2,183 25%
50% 6.2
Mining & quarrying
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 66.8 20.4 17.0 0%

Agriculture, forestry,
fishery
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 351 -25%
26.7 27.7
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 258 Other 2003 2005 2007 2009
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 80.8 0% Investment Net exports
Chief Ports: Da Nang, Hai Phong EU-27
USA USA 6% Japan
21% EU-27 4% 10%
18%
Other
Political Data 21%
China
Prim e Minister: Nguyen Minh Triet Exports Imports 25%
Last elections: 24 July 2007 Other
Japan
24%
14%
Next elections: June 2011
Governor of State Bank: Nguyen Van Giau China
Other 8% Other
Asia Asia
15% 34%

Moody’s: Ba3 Negative
Machinery,
S&P: BB Negative Equipment,
Fitch Ratings: B+ Stable Ag. & Tools &
Spare
Fish.
Products Parts
25% 17%
Other
36%
Petroleum
Strengths Weaknesses Exports Other
Imports 14%
51%
• Diversified exports • Large public sector
Textiles &
Textiles &
Other
Footwear
• Net exporter of crude oil • Insufficient infrastructure 22%
Fabrics
10%
Crude Oil Steel
17% 8%
• Low cost and productive work • Weak financial system
force

FOCUSECONOMICS September 2010
Notes and Statements
PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by

FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual
figures due to different forecast panels.
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by
FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:
Asia (12 countries): China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
Asia ex-Japan (11 countries): China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 6 countries): Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The remaining four Asean members (Brunei, Burma (Myanmar),
Cambodia and Laos) are not included in the calculation of the regional average.
NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, infla-
tion and exchange rates.
COPYRIGHT NOTE
© Copyright 2010 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or re-

distribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written
consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights
reserved under International Copyright Conventions.
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Com-

munications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:
FocusEconomics S.L.
Gran Via 657
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tel: +34 932 651 040
fax: +34 932 650 804
e-mail: info@focus-economics.com
web: http://www.focus-economics.com
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable.
FocusEconomics and the participating panellists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast
is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the
Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the
use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for
the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their
specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a
solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without
notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

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FOCUSECONOMICS

Hong Kong ............................... 2 5

Vietnam ................................. 109

Notes ....................................... 112

Order Form ............................. 113

Arne Pohlman Armando Ciccarelli Marcos Felipe Casarin

Ángel Talavera Gerardo Morán Joan Enric Domene

Keith Catlin Ricardo Aceves

© FocusEconomics 2010 Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 2

Keith Catlin ASIA | Regional outlook improves a notch

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 3

Thailand | Growth forecasts improve after strong second quarter result

KOREA | Outlook improves further

INDIA | Growth prospects improves despite amid moderating industrial

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 4

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

Malaysia 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.4 Asean

GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

Malaysia 7,992 6,763 7,589 8,442 9,110 9,899 10,977 Malaysia

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 5

Private Consumption, annual variation in % Private Consumption Growth, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

Malaysia 8.5 0.8 5.4 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.3 Singapore

Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 6

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Philippines

Indonesia 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.0 Asean

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Korea

Malaysia -4.8 -7.0 -5.6 -4.8 -4.1 -3.6 -3.4 China

0 Note: Fiscal balance in % of GDP.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 7

Inflation, annual average variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

Malaysia 3.3 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.8 Asean

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 8

Nominal Depreciation vs. USD, in % Depreciation versus USD, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

Malaysia 4.5 -1.2 -4.4 -5.2 -1.2 -1.3 -2.1 Philippines

Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

Malaysia 17.5 16.7 14.0 12.7 11.6 10.6 9.9 Asean

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 9

Exports, annual variation in % Exports Growth, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

Malaysia 13.1 -21.1 18.7 11.2 10.7 8.4 8.2 Vietnam

2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports, annual variation in % Imports Growth, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

Malaysia 6.5 -21.0 24.7 12.5 15.3 10.7 9.6 Taiwan

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 10

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2010