NOx impact on Air Quality,

Human Health and Ecosystems

in
TIER II / III Ship Emission
Scenarios for Baltic Sea

J.Soares, M. Sofiev, J.-P.Jalkanen

Outlook
• Introduction
¾ Goal of the study
• Methodology of the analysis
• Main outcome
• Summary
Goal of the study
• Goal: to evaluate the impact of NOx ship emission
reduction measures in the Baltic Sea Area
¾ Health impact: NOx concentrations
¾ Health impact: NOx exposure
¾ Ecosystem impact: NOx deposition
Methodology: input data and modelling tool
• A modelling study analysing three main emission
scenarious:
¾ 3 emission scenarios:
– current emissions (2007)
… NOx, SOx, CO & NH3
… Anthropogenic in-land and ship traffic
– Tier II: 10% NOx reduction of 2045 ship emission in the BSA, the rest
stays the same
– Tier III: 80% NOx reduction of 2045 ship emission in the BSA, the rest
stays the same

• Working tool: SILAM dispersion model with embedded

inorganic chemistry scheme
• Model output: concentrations & depositions over Europe
(20km grid size)
Methodology: processing the model output
• Aggregation of the concentration and deposition maps
¾ Lower and upper percentiles for all species
– Directive 2008/50/EC: 200 μg/m3 for 1 hour-average should not be
exceeded more than 18 times a calendar year: 99.8%
¾ Ratios, absolute and relative differences in concentrations and
depositions between the three emission cases
– Average over the computed period

• Exposure estimation: E = n * t * C [μg⋅s/m3]

¾n = the number of people (source: Gridded Population of
the World, http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw.)
¾t = time [s]
¾C = concentration [μg/m3] (source: SILAM)
Tool: Chemical Transport Model SILAM
Model simulations outcome: air quality
impact
NO2 annual average concentration over the BSA
1,2

NO2 concentrations [µg/m3)
1

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

0
current emissions TIER II TIER III

Tier II/Tier III , NO2 cnc ave June-

August(µgN/m3)
 Model simulations outcome: ecosystems
impact
NTotal annual average deposition over the BSA
12

NO2 deposition[µg/m2.h)
10

0
current emissions TIER II TIER III

Tier II/Tier III, NTotal annual ave dep (µgN/m2.h)

Tier II / Tier III deposition, average whole period
NTotal N-SIA,
Exposure: Tier II vs Tier III

NO2 annual average exposure over the BSA
60
NO2  exposure (μg⋅s/m3)

50

40

30

20

10

0
TIER II TIER III
Summary of modelling results
• NOx emission by 2045 if the traffic doubles :
Tier II - 80% increase, Tier III - 60% reduction.
Tier II → III impact:
¾ 2-3 times decrease of NOx concentrations over the sea area
¾ Minor impact over land
¾ Moderate impact on deposition (tens of %)
¾ Substantial impact on chemical processes over sea: growth of zero-
ammonium nitrate area
– Reduction of N-SIA production, down to zero over central part of Baltic
Proper
• NOx near coastal areas are and will be dominated by the
automobile traffic and energy sector emission
¾ Current NO2 limit values stated in the EU Legislation are not and will
not be exceeded in the Baltic Sea area (at regional scale)
– Vegetation: 30 µg/m3 at annual level
– Human health: 200 μg/m3, 99.8th percentile
– Human health: 40 µg/m3 at annual level
Summary of exposure estimates
• Estimated using the in-land population map and SILAM
computed concentrations
¾ People at the ferries are ignored
¾ Main changes in NO2 concentrations are over sea area rather than
inland
• Harbour emission is largely missing in the present EMEP
ship emission
• These two factors resulted in limited difference between
the exposure estimates within Tier II and Tier III
¾ Estimates made for NO2 show some 10%-15% difference