Q2

2011

Australian Hotel
Market Outlook

In early February 2011 Deloitte launched
Hotel Market Outlook: 2010 in review; 2011
and beyond, predicting year-end results for 2010
some three months before the Australian Bureau
of Statistics released its official data. We did
this by applying an econometric model, utilising
historic ABS data, combined with the latest
information from STR Global as well as economic
forecasts by Deloitte Access Economics.
We are pleased to note that our forecasts were
highly accurate, within a 0.2% occupancy
and 0.5% average room rate margin in almost
all markets.
The updated economic outlook by Deloitte
Access Economics predicts a softer economic
environment, resulting in downward revisions in
our forecasts for 2011 for both occupancy and
room rates. We also present a first look at our
projections for year-end 2012.
Subscribe to Deloitte Access Economics
publications online.
The global economy
The key question for global growth was always just
how big a letdown the passing of stimulus would
prove. The early news is excellent – talk of a double dip
in the rich world has all but disappeared, albeit partly
because emerging economy policymakers (spooked by
the revolutions which swept through the Arab world)
continue to move far too slowly to rein in their still
galloping growth.
That has extended the stay of industrial commodity
prices in the stratosphere. The latter have hit record
highs and have now been joined there by food
prices as well. With emerging economies seeing their
growth ease slightly and the developed world seeing
its growth strengthen, 2011 and 2012 should see
above trend global growth even though both families
and governments want to save more than they have
been doing.
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The Australian economy
While Australians watched horrified as floods and
cyclones hit at home and earthquakes and tsunamis
caused tragedies abroad, world prices for the industrial
and farm commodities we have in abundance surged
past the peaks they hit back in mid-2008. That
means the world is begging Australia to grow faster,
throwing enormous sums of money at our export
sector, and expanding our national income fast.
Yet, despite that, the pace of Australia’s recovery has
stalled of late. In part that reflects some ‘two speed
economy’ negatives: a resource boom brings with it
higher interest and exchange rates, and that mix is
weighing heavily on some sectors. At the same time
it is hard for the key growth positives to gain traction
– mining and engineering construction want to grow
very fast, but their expansion is being dogged by slow
bureaucratic and corporate approval processes as well
as by skill shortages.
The latter may become acute over the next two years,
because Australia’s growth prospects rest on a very
narrow base of sectors, occupations and States,
and because policy moves are making it harder to
migrate here.
The list of good news sectors is small, whereas the bad
news list is long. Most manufacturers are being very
hard hit by the marauding $A and the same currency
questions are also bedevilling foreign student numbers
and the tourism sector.
Consumers are cautious: savings is the new black
as Gen Y realises they haven’t saved nearly enough
for their burgeoning family responsibilities, while all
generations are feeling the sting of higher interest
rates, keeping Australia’s retailers on the back foot.
Even the public sector looks set to slow as stimulus
measures run their course.
Although it’ll be a close run thing, we expect the
Reserve Bank will have to push up rates over the
next year (keeping the $A strong) even though many
businesses and families are doing it tough.

Economic Impacts for the Tourism, Hospitality
and Leisure sector
The longer the Australian dollar remains close to parity
with its US cousin, the harder it will be for tourism
and international education, two key sectors which
dominate our service export earnings, to make their
sales. Both are on the wrong side of Australia’s two
speed economy, with higher exchange rates combining
with changed migration rules and a sharp competitive
push from US colleges to generate depressingly large
falls in enrolments in key parts of Australia’s international
education sector. At the same time, although numbers
of inbound tourists lifted in recent months, it is hard to
see visitor numbers sprinting any time soon, or perhaps
any time that the $A is above US$ parity.
Retail spend is directly related to spending in the
domestic leisure segment. Unfortunately, recent years
saw capital gains from homes and shares falter, and
the global financial crisis led families to reassess the
sustainability of their saving habits. The good news is
that the worst of the retail downturn is almost over.
2011 won’t be a great year for retail, but the swing to
saving that has already occurred has sown the seeds
of better times ahead, because families have already
broken the back of what they were trying to do –
get back to sustainable rates of saving. As income levels
continue to grow at comfortable enough rates, greater
retail strength should be more evident by the end of
2011, maturing into more solid recovery in 2012.
Activity levels in the corporate sector are strengthening
as national income leverages the resources boom,
meaning that the local market for mergers and
acquisitions is more active than most. That is
generating good demand for professional services.
However, this is a bellwether sector, and it too is feeling
the ‘two speed’ strains evident in the wider Australian
economy. Demand for professional services from some
sectors and some States remains patchy.
Not only will labour cost go up,
it is also likely to bring often
already poor service standards
further down.
Hotel Market Outlook Q2/2011
The combination of a sharp drop in international
students as a result of the loosened link between
studying here and obtaining permanent residency,
and increasing labour cost as the unemployment rate
continues to move down, has dire consequences for
seasonal businesses that are heavily dependent on
casual workers. Not only will labour cost go up, it is
also likely to bring often already poor service standards
further down.
The tourism, hospitality and leisure sector is thus on the
back foot amid a climate of high interest and exchange
rates on the one hand and the national ‘swing to
saving’ on the other. That combination has produced
a less-than-favourable business backdrop, with more
Australians heading to Bali instead of Broome and
Disneyland instead of Dreamworld and stagnant
numbers of tourists arriving here.
Some of the earlier strength in cafés and restaurants
has faded more recently, and whilst the business trade
is seeing some positives, that lift in business profits is
narrowly based and it isn’t driving long liquored-up
lunches on the corporate credit card. Given that the
currency has been continuing to edge upwards of late,
there is probably some bad news still in the pipeline for
this sector. However, it won’t last forever. In particular,
the $A may start to lose some altitude as interest
rates go up in the rest of the world – though not too
much altitude.
Ironically, whilst everything seems to work against
the resort and leisure sector, our corporate hubs are
blessed with an absence of any notable additions to the
supply of hotel accommodation for more than a decade
now, resulting in unprecedented room occupancy
levels. This opens the door wide for hoteliers to drive
room rate, hard. The ‘two-speed economy’ thus
applies to the tourism, hospitality and leisure sector
as well, and this seems unlikely to change for the
foreseeable future.
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 Australia
Australia: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends Sydney surpassed pre-GFC occupancy levels by mid-
70.0% $200 2010 and has now also recovered RevPAR in full. The
68.0% $180
outlook for Sydney for 2011 is extremely encouraging,
66.0% $160
primarily based on continued occupancy growth.
64.0% $140

Occupancy for the city is modelled to grow another 1%

62.0% $120

60.0% $100
to 86.4%, with average room rates forecast to rise by
58.0% $80 11% to $195, resulting in a RevPAR increase of 12% to
56.0% $60 around $168.
54.0% $40

Even with the expected opening of the Meriton

52.0% $20

50.0% $0

Apartments in Haymarket and the extension of Star City

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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend
Casino late in 2011, the forecast for 2012 anticipates
further occupancy growth to 87% and another 14%
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) growth in room rates to $222. RevPAR should thus
showed a country-wide RevPAR increase of 5.4% to increase by 14.5% to $193.
$88.67 for YE 2010, very close to our forecast of
$89.10. Room occupancy grew by 1.7% to 63.7%, Melbourne
Melbourne: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
and average room rates for 2010 grew by 2.6% 90.0% $325

to $139.16. 88.0% $300

86.0% $275

84.0% $250

We have softened our outlook for 2011 somewhat, 82.0% $225

based on a more reserved growth trend for the main

80.0% $200

78.0% $175

cities and continued uncertainty for leisure destinations. 76.0% $150

Overall room occupancy is now forecasted to remain 74.0% $125

72.0% $100

relatively constant, showing a marginal decrease of 70.0% $75

0.2% to 63.5%. Average room rates should grow by 68.0% $50

5.2% to $146 with RevPAR estimated to increase by

66.0% $25
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$4.35 (4.9%) to $93. Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

Looking ahead to 2012, our model predicts a marginal RevPAR in Melbourne increased by 5.0% to $138.46 in
increase in occupancy by 0.5% to 64.0%. In the 2010. Room occupancy exactly matched our forecast at
absence of supply growth, average room rates are set 79.8% with growth of 2.5%, while the average room
to increase further by $9.58 (6.5%) to $156, increasing rates of $173.44 came very close to our forecasted
RevPAR by $6.75 (7.3%) to $100. growth of 1.6% to $173.14.

Sydney
Sydney: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
The outlook for 2011 is positive with no new supply on
90.0% $325 the horizon and occupancies expected to increase a
88.0% $300
further 2% to 81.7%. RevPAR is forecasted to increase
86.0% $275

84.0% $250
by 8.6% to $150 fuelled by growth in average room
82.0% $225 rates of 6.1% to $184 which is some $7 lower than our
80.0% $200
previous projection as hoteliers are proving to be less
aggressive than expected in raising room rates.
78.0% $175

76.0% $150

74.0% $125

72.0% $100 Looking forward to 2012, a little room occupancy

70.0% $75
growth is left to reach 83%, with average room rates
68.0% $50

set for double-digit growth of 11% to $204, increasing

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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

RevPAR by 12.5% to $169. New supply additions are
not expected until 2014.
Sydney hotels recorded the strongest performance in
the country recording RevPAR growth of 10.8% to
$150.25 for YE 2010. Our occupancy forecast
matched the year-end result of 85.5%, with average
room rates growing by only 4.0% to $175.70 despite
record occupancies.

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 Hotel Market Outlook Q2/2011

Brisbane
Brisbane: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends The outlook for YE 2011 is good, however, with the
86.0% $250 city forecasted to achieve the strongest growth rates
83.5% $225
in the country, with no new supply expected to enter
the market in the next three years. Room occupancy
81.0% $200

78.5% $175

76.0% $150
is predicted to increase by 3% to reach 85.6% with
73.5% $125
11% rate growth to $174 and RevPAR growing by 16%
71.0% $100 to $149.
68.5% $75

66.0% $50
This growth trend is expected to continue in 2012, with
forecasted average room rates and RevPAR exceeding
63.5% $25

61.0% $0

Melbourne and Brisbane. Occupancies may reach 88%,

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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend
surpassing Sydney’s projected occupancy for YE 2012.
Average room rates may grow by close to 20% again to
Brisbane hotels recorded strong RevPAR growth of $206, with RevPAR growth of 23.1% to $183.
9.7% to $126.27 for YE 2010, which is close to the
modelled forecast of $126.75. Forecasted occupanciesAdelaide:
Adelaide
Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
exactly matched actual results from ABS, with 4.1% 80.0% $250

growth to 78.8%. Average room rates grew by 3.9% 77.5% $225

to $160.14. 75.0% $200

72.5% $175

70.0% $150

The outlook for Brisbane remains strong. The city 67.5% $125

is expected to see an increase in supply by late 65.0% $100

2011 and in 2012 with the opening of the second 62.5% $75

Emporium, as well as a Novotel on Elizabeth Street. 60.0% $50

Room occupancy will continue to increase however, 57.5% $25

55.0% $0

as demand growth still outstrips supply growth. Our

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forecast for 2011 and 2012 is for occupancies of 80%, Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

down by 2% from our previous prediction. Average

room rates are expected to increase by 7% in 2011 and Hoteliers in Adelaide achieved a commendable
10% in 2012 to $172 and $189 respectively. RevPAR is occupancy level of 76.6% in 2010, on par with our
thus expected to increase by 8.5% in 2011 to $137 and forecast. Room rate growth however was only 1.4%
by 11% in 2012 to reach $152. to reach $141.84, falling $1 short of our projected rate.
RevPAR for 2010 was $108.64.
Perth
Perth: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
92.5% $325 Unlike other cities in Australia, Adelaide’s outlook
shows a negative trend for the city, based on a soft
90.0% $300

87.5% $275

85.0% $250 economic outlook. Occupancy is projected to decline to

82.5% $225

80.0% $200
pre-GF C levels of around 74% with only marginal rate
77.5% $175
increases of 1.5% to $144. With the projected decrease
75.0% $150

72.5% $125
in occupancy and the minimal growth in average room
70.0% $100
rates, RevPAR is forecasted to decline by 3% to $106,
67.5% $75

65.0% $50
the lowest of Australia’s State capital cities.
62.5% $25

60.0% $0

Looking forward to 2012, room occupancy is expected

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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

to decline by a further 1% to 73%, with average room
rates projected to increase by just 2.5%, improving
Perth hotels achieved record room occupancies before RevPAR by just over $1 to $107.
the GFC and remained above 80% throughout. Despite
this, room rates dropped by 3% in 2009 and recovered
by only 1.1% in 2010 to achieve 82.3% by year-end.
Room rate growth of 20% and more before the GFC
stagnated throughout 2009 and recorded only 2%
growth in 2010, closing at $157 for the year, about
$1 shy of our forecast.

5
 Canberra
Canberra: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends Darwin’s outlook is positive however with no further
80.0% $250
supply additions expected. Room occupancy growth
77.5% $225
is forecasted to improve by 1.5% to 72% in 2011 with
renewed growth in average room rates by 5% to $148.
75.0% $200

72.5% $175

70.0% $150
RevPAR is expected to increase by 7.5% to $99.
67.5% $125

65.0% $100 Further ahead, occupancy in 2012 should increase by a

62.5% $75
further 1% to 73%, with average room rates increasing
60.0% $50
7% to $159 resulting in RevPAR growth of 8% to $116.
57.5% $25

55.0% $0

Gold Coast
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Gold Coast: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend
77.5% $250

75.0% $225

Canberra hotels’ RevPAR growth exceeded Sydney for 72.5% $200

70.0% $175

YE 2010, with 11.3% growth to $114.50, matching the

67.5% $150

modelled forecast rate. Occupancy also grew stronger 65.0% $125

than Sydney, with 5.4% growth to 75.9% whilst 62.5% $100

average room rates grew 3.4% to $150.95. 60.0% $75

57.5% $50

Canberra’s outlook for 2011 was for a weaker year, and 55.0% $25

52.5% $0

this has been revised further down. Occupancy is now

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forecasted to decline by 2.5% to 73.5%, as several Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

high-profile exhibits and events last year are not

repeated this year. Average room rates are predicted to The resort market on the Gold Coast was predicted to
increase by 3.5% to $156 with RevPAR growing by only be slow and actually performed below those
0.3% to $115. expectations. RevPAR improved by 2.4% to $90.13,
against a prediction for $91.34. This was caused by
In 2012 occupancy is forecast to decrease a further 1% occupancy only growing 1.8% to 68.2%, whilst
to 72.5%. However, in the expectation that hoteliers average room rates decreased 0.3% to $132.13 due to
will push through a much needed rate hike, average continued discounting.
room rates are predicted to rise by 8% to $169 causing
RevPAR to increase by almost 7% to $123. The outlook for the Gold Coast is uncertain. As Stage
II of the new Hilton enters the market, overall room
Darwin
Darwin: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends occupancy is expected to drop by 1.5% to 66.5%.
85.0% $210
As this property will hopefully trade above prevailing
82.5% $195

80.0% $180 average room rates, market-wide average room rates

77.5%

75.0%
$165

$150
are predicted to increase for the first time in three
72.5% $135 years, with growth expected at 2% to around $135.
70.0% $120

67.5% $105
RevPAR should hold at $90.
65.0% $90

62.5% $75

60.0% $60 Looking forward to YE 2012, occupancy will hopefully

improve to around 68%, with average room rates
57.5% $45

55.0% $30

52.5% $15
increasing further to $140, resulting in RevPAR
50.0% $0

projected to increase by 6% to $95.

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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

RevPAR in Darwin grew 2.4% to $99.38 in 2010.

Occupancy growth remained positive on the back of a
decline in the previous year, with growth of 2.3% to
70.6%. Average room rates decreased marginally by
0.9% to $140.83 influenced by additions to supply in
the previous year.

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 Hotel Market Outlook Q2/2011

Tropical North Queensland

TNQ: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
75.0% $210
Your industry, our expertise
72.5% $195
Our dedicated practice provides a wide range
70.0% $180

67.5% $165 of services to financiers, property owners,

investment fund managers, private investors,
65.0% $150

62.5% $135

60.0% $120
developers, operators, and associated
57.5% $105

55.0% $90 stakeholders, including architects, government

departments, professional and business lobby
52.5% $75

50.0% $60

47.5% $45
groups, and tourism intermediaries.
45.0% $30

42.5% $15

40.0% $0

We act on assignments across the hospitality

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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend
sector including:
• Hotels, resorts, serviced apartments and
Tropical North Queensland (TNQ) hotels’ performance integrated developments
was impacted by the devastating natural disasters that
• Aviation and transport
affected the region in late 2010. The continuing rise of
the Australian dollar and global economic uncertainty is • Tourism
also hitting TNQ hard. RevPAR in 2010 fell 2.2% to • Betting and gaming
$64.83 in YE 2010, against a forecast of only 0.7% • Entertainment
decline. Occupancy decreased by 0.5% to 54.5%,
• Pubs and clubs
with average room rates declining by 1.3% to $119.
• Food and catering organisations.
TNQ’s outlook for 2011 remains grim and was revised
further downwards, with occupancies expected to We offer a full range of services to address
decrease by a further 1.5% to 53%, and average room key industry issues associated with economic
rates reducing by 2% to $117 as hoteliers continue conditions, regulatory change, competition,
discounting in an attempt to sell rooms. A lower emerging market sectors, technological
RevPAR will follow, with a forecasted decrease of 4% advancements, mergers and acquisitions,
to $62. and changing needs of investors. These include
specialist services focused on:
Hopefully a reversal in the A$ exchange rate will see • Administration and recovery
some growth in 2012, with a predicted increase in • Human capital
occupancy of 1% to 54%, and average room rates
• Financing
growing by 1% to $118. This should see RevPAR
improve by 3.5% to $64. • Market and asset due diligence
• Pricing and distribution
• Market development
Deloitte is recognised as one of the leading
• Branding and online products
global advisors to the Tourism, Hospitality
and Leisure (THL) industry, with a practice of • Sustainability.
more than 2000 professionals. In Australia,
our multidisciplinary group of industry Your business, our team
experts have a deep knowledge of the market The THL team is led by industry veterans Rutger
issues and business challenges faced within Smits and Ron de Wit, whose long-standing
the THL industry, both domestically and consulting experience and practical industry
internationally. knowledge provide a powerful combination when
supported by Deloitte’s team of technical experts.

With specialists in all geographies and across

all competencies, we quickly mobilise teams to
support our clients’ needs.

7
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