Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Country Profile of
Conventional and Renewable Energies:
Prepared by
Maria-Evangelia Kaninia
Intern from August to …, 2006
For the
1 Executive summary
Afghanistan scores among the last in every development index rating. With a population
of approximately 30 million (rough estimate), the energy sector is hardly able to cover the growing
demand (which is currently very low). A particularity about the country is the dearth of exact data.
The government and the various development agencies that are active in the country have
commissioned various reports within the context of rebuilding the entire economy, but even
recent ones are often contradicting each other.
Currently a large percentage of the population relies on non-commercialized resources
(especially wood fuel, estimated to cover more than 75% of the final energy needs) to cover their
energy needs. Inland production of coal and hydrocarbons has severely declined since its peak in
the eighties. However there are prospects to develop these resources and especially the gas
fields. The supply of petroleum products through importations does not suffice to cover the
demand and is largely unregulated.
The electricity sector depends largely on the abundant hydro resources. The actual
capacity has severely declined and will need (as is scheduled) to be fortified with new hydro and
thermal plants. There are numerous options for the construction of further hydro plants. The
thermal ones will be fueled with gas and will therefore be located between the gas fields and the
major urban load centers.
Since an expansion of the electrical grid to cover the entire country is out of the question
for the medium term (because of the terrain of the country and the distribution of load centers),
small-scale renewable energy projects will be developed to power isolated communities.
Page 3 of 23
2.1.2 Population
- Total population: 31,1m in July 2006 according to [CIA]; 28,5m in July 2004 according to
the State Department ([STA]); 23,8m according to [EIU], which quotes the (Asian
Development Bank, Basic Statistics 2006)1; the [UNCDB] figure agrees with the latter, as
well as the [IMF]; the Central Statistics Office of the country, relying on a 2002 census
gives an estimate of 21,8m for 2002 ([CSO1])
- Growth rate: 2,7%
1
Wikipedia mentions that no systematic census has been held in the country in decades.
Page 4 of 23
established a British domination over the country’s foreign affairs; independence was won from
notional British control in 1919.
The most peaceful period in Afghanistan’s history lasted until 1973, to be followed by a
military coup. Trying to exploit the mounting disaffection of the population for the regime that was
established with the 1973 coup the People’s Democratic Party seeked Moscow’s support and
initiated a second coup in 1978. The Marxist-style regime and its reform program met with strong
resistance from the Afghan people, since it clashed with their traditions and religious identity.
Conservative rural tribesmen, backed by Pakistan and the US, each for different reasons,
rebelled.
Despite ruthless repression, the Soviet Union could not defeat the mujahideen, but
disunity among the various groups prevented the successful formation of an alternative
government-in-waiting. The Soviet contingents, after having suffered severe losses, were led out
in 1989, while the communist regime collapsed in 1992.
In the game of power between clans and factions that ensued rose the Taliban (hard-line
Islamists), which had arisen to power in the mid nineties. Many Taliban had been educated in
religious institutions in Pakistan and were largely from rural southern Pashtun backgrounds. In
1994, the Taliban developed enough strength to progressively capture large parts of the country,
occupying about 90% of the country by the end of 1998 and imposing a theocratic regime.
Following accusations of providing refuge to terrorist groups, a military campaign was
launched in 2001 by the US and their allies against the Taliban, whose fall was a matter of
months.
After an interim period, the first presidential elections were held in 2004, followed by
elections for the National Assembly in 2005. Despite this progress, the country is far from having
achieved the kind of stability that would attract foreign investors or allow for a rehabilitation of its
infrastructure.
2
[EIU] stresses the dearth of statistical data and of a standard procedure to record
economic activity. It particularly mentions that official statistics are non-existent since the fall of
the communist regime in 1992.
Page 5 of 23
- Main imports: the country is not self-sufficient in any sector apart from agricultural
products and has therefore to import everything else, mainly from Pakistan (23.7%), US
(11.7%), India (7.9%), Germany (6.8%), Turkmenistan, Russia, Kenya, Turkey ([CIA]
estimation for 2005)
3
The most important source of information concerning the energy sector in Afghanistan
is the EIA. It provides a country brief ([EIA]) and detailed time series of data ([EIAa]).
Page 6 of 23
storage facilities to make the domestically produced as well as the imported commodities
accessible to the population.
4
[USGS]
5
[R04]
6
[R04]
7
assuming 1:3 efficiency (thermal equivalent)
8
according to [WRI]; includes only wood fuel
9
[EIAa]; 960ktoe according to [R04]
10
[ADBc]
11
[EIAa]
12
The actual consumption should be 30% lower in order to adjust for system losses.
13
According to [USGS], the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a cooperative coal
resource assessment of Afghanistan with the Afghan Ministry of Mines and Industries (MMI). It
characterizes the resources as potentially “abundant”.
14
[USGS] clarifies the distinction between the mines that are controlled by the
government, through the North Coal Enterprise and “small private artisanal mines, often without
government sanction”.
Page 7 of 23
only 15% of the total production originates in government mines, operated by the NCE or
associated agencies.
Consumption: 34% (11,000 tons) (according to [PRIa]) of the total government-controlled
production in 2004 was consumed by a state-owned industrial customer (cement industry). The
rest of the production is used domestically, either for residential use (both raw and briquette
forms) or other state-owned enterprises. [USGS] mentions that it has also occasionally been used
for electricity production in plants that under normal circumstances burn natural gas.
15
The data provided by the EIA collides with [PRIa], since the latter reports exact figures
about a substantial production in 2004. EIA is however the only source that provides time series
of data, showing the decline in output in every energy sector after 2002.
Page 8 of 23
2.2.2.2 Oil16
Much of the crude oil and natural gas resource potential, and all of the known reserves
are in northern Afghanistan, located in parts of two major petroliferous geologic provinces, the
Amu Darya Basin in the western part and the Afghan-Tajik Basin in the eastern part. The area of
the two basins combined encompasses approximately 515,000 square kilometers (200,000
square miles), which means that the exploration undertaken mainly by the USGS will be a long
project.
[EIA] quotes Soviet estimates from the late 1970s that placed Afghanistan's proven and
probable oil and condensate reserves at 95 million barrels (which amounts to less than 10-5 of the
global reserves) of medium quality (102 million barrels according to [AISA]). Oil production has
always been secondary in importance in comparison to natural gas. Minimal quantities (less than
300bbl/d) were produced by local militia in the early nineties. The USGS estimate the resources
at 87 million barrels, while the summary table of the oil fields presented in [RE04], page 7, at 94
million bbl.
The size and quality of the deposits, however, make it questionable whether it is feasible
to establish an oil refinery and use the residual heavy oil for power production ([RE04]).
According to [R04], the current production of oil is a mere 400bbl/d, less than 10% of the
quantity that was consumed in 2004 according to [EIAa].
Petroleum products are imported, mainly from Pakistan and Uzbekistan, with limited
volumes from Turkmenistan and Iran serving regional markets close to the respective borders.
16
The two major petroliferous geologic provinces are the Amu Darya Basin in the
western part and the Afghan-Tajik Basin in the eastern part. The current exploration underway,
which takes place with the collaboration of the US geological institute focuses on these areas.
Page 9 of 23
Turkmenistan also has a petroleum product storage and distribution facility near the Afghan
border, which supplies northwestern Afghanistan. However, there are restrictions in the supply
system, which is unregulated. This results in the imported oil products being of poor quality.
[EIAa] provides a timeline for domestic oil products consumption (for 2004 it amounted to
4,500 bbl/d or 224,000t for the entire year). [CIA] gives an estimate of 5,000bbl/d for 2003. In
comparison, a quantity of approximately 6400bbl/d is delivered to the US military contingents in
Afghanistan alone (see [DLA], page 6). [R04] (page 20) reports a yearly consumption for 2004 at
960,000t or 19,000bbl/d (more than the quadruple of the [EIAa] estimate)17.
Fuel & Liquid Gas Enterprise (see [PRIb]) (state-owned) operates fuel storage facilities
and over 200 petrol stations around the country. It is not clear whether it controls the monopoly.
However, [R04] reports that “local private sector entrepreneurs supply petroleum products with
minimum government control, monitoring or management”.
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
oil consumption (000 bbl/d)
2.2.2.3 Gas
Natural gas is the most important hydrocarbon resource in Afghanistan. The total
reserves are estimated at 1,750Tcf by Oil and Gas and at 3,500Tcf by Cedigaz as of January
2006 (both sources are quoted in [EIAa]). The Afghan state agency for Investment Support (see
[AISA] places the estimate at 4,2Tcf (2006). The [EIA] report mentions that the northern part of
the country alone (North Afghan Platform; southern extension of the rich Amu-Darya Basin) has
5Tcf of reserves (including probable reserves).
Gas fields were first developed by the Soviets in the area surrounding Sheberghan in
northern Afghanistan, close to the border with Turkmenistan. The largest (about 2Tcf) gas field of
Afghanistan, the Khodzha-Gugerdag field, was discovered in 1961 (see [USGSa], page 14).
Other areas of the country have not been extensively explored, but are believed to be limited.
A summary of the gas fields is presented in Table 2, according to which the proved
reserves are about 2Tcf. Further exploration for hydrocarbons will be progressively undertaken,
mainly with the support of US agencies.
17
According to the questionnaire submitted to the UNSTATS ([Q]), the consumption
(equal to the imports) of oil products amounted to 190,000t in 2004, or 3,800bbl/d, which is rather
off-mark.
Page 10 of 23
residential, 1.79,
plant fertiliser,
23%
3.83, 50%
Other, 5.11, 67%
other industrial,
pow er generation,
1.28, 17%
0.77, 10%
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
2.2.2.4 Electricity18
Supposing that the data provided by [EIAa] are reasonably accurate (see Figure 7),
Afghan citizens consume approximately 30kWh per capita per year19, which is extremely low
even adjusting for the percentage of those who actually do have access to electricity. However,
electricity consumption, especially by residential consumers, cannot be precisely calculated
because of electricity theft (illegal connections to the network) and the dilapidated state of the
distribution network that result in significant losses. ([RP04] reports that only 55% of the energy
generated is billed, leading to a very low cost recovery percentage). The current supply does not
meet the demand, a situation which is dealt with through frequent load shedding.
Electricity is imported from neighbouring countries to satisfy local demand at bordering
areas, although the bilateral annual power purchase agreements are described in [RE04] as
being slightly unreliable. [ADBc] provides some figures concerning imports of electricity for 2004
(Table 3). The sum total of the imported quantities is, however, more than 20 times the quantity
reported by [EIAa].
source country destination province electricity imported in 2004 (GWh)
Uzbekistan Balkh, Hairatan 76
Turkmenistan Herat 18,5
Tajikistan Kunduz and other northern provinces 12,3
Total 106,8
Table 3 Imports of electricity ([ADBc])
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
generation (b kWh)
electricity consumption (b kWh)"
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
18
[RP04] contains a full enumeration by region of the electricity infrastructure of the
country as of 2003, including listings of power plants, transmission and major distribution stations,
as well as information on the grid.
19
[RA04] places the estimate for yearly per capita consumption at an even lower 12kWh.
Page 13 of 23
20
The plant is actually part of the North Fertilizer and Power Enterprise, an industrial unit
producing urea from natural gas. When excess electricity is available, it is exported to the network
surrounding Mazar-i-Sharif.
21
Other minor plants are omitted (but listed in detail in [RP04], annex 3).
22
The plants were constructed by the same company in 1956 and 1966, respectively.
Their combined output after the rehabilitation will be 77MW (see link).
Page 14 of 23
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
[EIAa] [Q] (questionnaire)
600
500
400
hydro (MW)
300
200
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
23
Obviously the government agency reported the total nominal capacity of the existing
plants, regardless of their condition.
Page 15 of 23
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.40
0.20
0.00
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
Figure 10 Electricity generation by type ([EIAa])
Regardless of the exact figures for active capacity, Afghanistan will need to multiply its
generation capacity by at least five or six times to reach other developing countries standards.
Sector organisation: “Da Afghanistan Brishna Moassesa” (DABM) is the state-owned
power utility responsible for generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, created in
1966. In 1986, the Government enacted the "Afghanistan's Usage of Electricity Act", making the
Ministry of Water and Power (MWP) responsible for the Power sector in Afghanistan (source:
[RE04]). Since the reform in December 2004, the DABM manages about 80% of the country’s
electricity production, while the ministries of mines and industry and of light industry share
management of the remaining 20%.
Ministry of Water & Power has grouped the projects to restore the electricity sector in
“Power Sector Master Plan”, described in detail in [MWP04]. These projects include generation,
transmission and distribution, but no small-scale distributed projects.
Some available data on the current prices are indicative of the malfunctioning of the
public electricity utility: Electricity that is imported is priced at $0,05-,09, depending on the
importer. The electricity that is produced within the country, mainly at hydro plants supplying the
major cities is significantly cheaper, at $0,02. This price does not reflect the cost of production
that the state has to bear. The electricity tariffs as of January 2004 are available in Annex 5,
[RP04]. Concerning the issue of tariffs, the government aims at creating a regulatory entity (page
47 in [RP04]). However, this should be ranked lower, in terms of priority, since even developed
economies need decades to introduce regulatory bodies for electricity and stabilize the respective
markets.
Projects: The entire sector of electricity requires extensive investment, including:
construction of new generating plants (exploiting the inland resources, namely hydropower and
natural gas) and rehabilitation of existing ones; import of electricity from Uzbekistan and Iran to
supplement the domestic capacity; extension of the grid for outreach to a greater percentage of
the population; small-scale generation for isolated communities. The total budget dedicated to the
sector amounts to $2,8b for a horizon until 2010.
As is extensively described in [RE04], alternative strategic options are under
consideration. The government has isolated three main strategies (import-based, thermal-based
and hydro-based) and leads an effort to produce a mixed solution to the electricity supply
problem. This major source of information includes lists of recommended projects, of which the
major thermal ones are described as follows, while the hydro ones are described in the RE
section (3.1.1.3):
Page 16 of 23
o According to [RE04], the refurbishment of the gas fields (see also 2.2.2.3) will
provide in the immediate future fuel for a 2x50MW combined cycle plant which is
to be built close to the gas field near the city of Sheberghan. The fuel required
yearly will be 7bcf, meaning that the generators shall operate at an efficiency of
about 40%. The plant would be located between the city of Sheberghan and the
110 kV substation connecting Sheberghan with the Turkmenistan grid, which will
be connected to the network supplying Kabul from Uzbekistan ([RV04]).
o The North West Thermal Power Plant (see [RV04]), in the outskirts of Kabul, was
constructed 1984 and initially planned to be a combined cycle plant consisting of
2 gas turbines and one steam turbine with a total output of about 70 MW. The
construction works was stopped in mid 1984 due to war activities and today only
the two gas turbines are functional and use for peaking in the cold seasons. The
plant can operate on multiple fuels and will be refurbished to give an additional
output if 28,6MW to reach its initial nominal capacity.
o Major hydro-projects: See 3.1.1.3.
Key donors: Most of the projects vital to the power sector are financed by the Asian
Development Bank (ADB), the International Development Association/World Bank (IDA/WB),
Germany (through state agencies), and the US (through USAID). In addition, Iran has financed
transmission lines to interconnect the city of Herat, and India is financing the detailed design and
construction for the missing transmission link between Pul-e-Khumri and Kabul.
Each of these organisations imposes its own bureaucracy, which means that a large
capital of the available funds is depleted at the stage of preliminary feasibility studies. However,
the government is not in a position to support priority energy-related projects without external
help.
and the Government of India)24. These lines are included in the list of “major recommendations”
endorsed by the Power Sector Master Plan described in [R04].
Because of the mountainous terrain of the country, construction of an extended grid is not
a viable option. Rural electrification is only thought achievable through small-scale projects (with
emphasis on renewable electricity).
24
In parallel, international agents are trying to ensure a 150MW contract to supply Kabul
through the axis that is to be built (the current peak demand for the capital is at 140MW,
according to [ADBc], excluding the load that is shed during peak load) from Uzbekistan.
Page 18 of 23
3.1.1.2 Achievements
Hydro resources dominate the electricity sector. According to [RP04] (Annex 6), 60% of
the installed capacity (regardless of operating condition) comes from hydro plants, as well as 72%
(according to [EIAa]) of the generated electricity. The major hydro plants are listed in Table 4. A
map with their locations, along with detailed listing of the existing plants can be found in
[MWP04].
3.1.1.5 Summary
Owing to its hydro resources, Afghanistan could potentially reverse the current situation
and become an electricity exporter. Various sites for major plants are under consideration,
subject to the main problem of financing, which is mainly dependent on external donor and
agencies. Micro-hydro plants are also an option for secluded off-grid communities.
3.1.2 Solar
Afghanistan has considerable solar potential. Estimates ([ADBd]) indicate that solar
radiation in Afghanistan averages about 6,5kWh per square meter per day, and the skies are
sunny for about 300 days a year.
The ADB has announced a Technical Assistantship (of a budget less than $1m) to
develop solar power in remote communities of rural areas (see [ADBd]). An ADB specialist
considers the potential for solar energy development “huge”, not only generating electricity but
also for water pumping for water supply and small scale irrigation or provision of potable and hot
water. Satisfying these needs through solar energy would also alleviate the pressure on forests,
on which 80% of the population relies. This project would initially involve a pilot concerning
photovoltaic installations for electricity generation.
3.1.3 Geothermal
According to a recent (2004) report, Afghanistan has the potential to exploit geothermal
energy. The first stage would be direct non-electrical exploitation of heat for involve a wide variety
of end uses, such as chemical industry, greenhouse industry, food processing, and fish farming,
which is less capital-intensive. These uses are site-specific and could promote the development
of impoverished communities (providing energy for such activities as agriculture or wool
processing). At the same time they would substitute heat that now has to be produced through
burning of wood fuel.
The map that is included in [GEO] (page 9) shows that geothermal resources are present
especially in the central mountainous plateau where impoverished communities have little access
to other forms of energy.
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
25
At 0.3215toe per ton of fuelwood (average caloric content assumption adopted by the
WRI), and an assumed density of 0.5ton/cubic meter the quantities reported by [WRI] are
equivalent to 234ktoe for 2004.
Page 22 of 23
electricity under
capacity consideration
Solar Y N micro- international financial Y
projects for donor funds
isolated
communities
Wind na na na na na na
Biomass
Waste na na na na na na
Geothermal Y N na na na
4 References / Sources
- [WRI] http://wri.org/, World Resources Information, Earthtrends, accessed on 25/09/06
- [GEO] Geothermal Energy in Afghanistan: Prospects and Potential, February 2004,
available online at www.cic.nyu.edu/archive/pdf/Geothermal.pdf
- [AISA] Energy Resources Presentation by the Ministry of Mines and Industries, May
2006, available online at http://www.aisa.org.af/documents/MaryLouiseVitell.ppt
- [WRI] World Resources Institute, Earthtrends, http://earthtrends.wri.org/, accessed on
03/10/06
- [Q] Questionnaire submitted to UNSTATS, 21/11/2005, period: 1999-2004
- [R04] Securing Afghanistan’s Future: Accomplishments and the Strategic Path Forward,
Oil and Gas Technical Annex, January 2004, accessed online on 28/09/06 at
http://www.af/recosting/, link
- [MWP04] Power Sector Master Plan, Final Report, October 2004, Ministry of Water and
Power, available at http://www.ands.gov.af/ands/, link
- [RA04] Securing Afghanistan’s Future: Accomplishments and the Strategic Path Forward,
March 2004, accessed online on 29/09/06 at http://www.af/recosting/, link
- [RE04] Power Sector Master Plan AFG/03170, Appendix D, Thermal Resources, Thermal
Power, Appendix E, Environmental and Social aspects, Ministry of Water & Power,
Afghanistan, October 2004, accessed online on 29/09/06 at http://www.ands.gov.af/, link
- [RV04] Power Sector Master Plan, Appendix E, Environmental and Social Aspects,
available online at http://www.ands.gov.af/, link
- [RP04] Power Sector Technical Annex, January 2004, accessed online on 02/10/06 at
http://www.ands.gov.af/, link
- Central Statistics Office of Afghanistan, http://www.cso.gov.af/
o [CSO1] Population, 2002, /Census/Census/102Population.pdf
o [CSO2] Energy use, Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook 2003,
/dataSets/documents/environment/203Environ.pdf
o [CSO3] Deforestation and biodiversity, same as above, /202Environ.pdf
- [CIA] https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/af.html, CIA World Factbook,
accessed on 25/08/06
- [EIU] http://www.eiu.com, Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Profile, updated on
10/08/06
- [UNCDB] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdb, UN Common Database
- [DLA] Defense Logistics Agency, Fuel Line, Vol. 1, 2006,
http://www.desc.dla.mil/DCM/Files/Vol 1, 2006.pdf
- [STA] http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5380.htm, State Department, Background,
updated in May 2006, accessed on 25/09/06
- [MD] http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/IMG/artoff9650.jpg, map, November 2002
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