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American Foreign Policy Interests


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The Continued Relevance of Realism in the Age of Obama: Plus Ça


Change, Plus C'est La Même Chose
Bradley A. Thayer

Online publication date: 28 January 2010

To cite this Article Thayer, Bradley A.(2010) 'The Continued Relevance of Realism in the Age of Obama: Plus Ça Change,
Plus C'est La Même Chose', American Foreign Policy Interests, 32: 1, 1 — 4
To link to this Article: DOI: 10.1080/10803920903542725
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10803920903542725

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American Foreign Policy Interests, 32: 1–4, 2010
Copyright # 2010 NCAFP
ISSN: 1080-3920 print=1533-2128 online
DOI: 10.1080/10803920903542725

The Continued Relevance of Realism in the


Age of Obama: Plus Ça Change, Plus C’est
La Même Chose
Bradley A. Thayer

At every inaugural and among the punditry


Abstract pontificating in the colorful magazines, it
If this prediction of the foreign policy of seems no one is a realist as in the past. It seems
the Obama administration proves to be true, that we have no steely eyed Cardinal Richelieu
President Obama will be judged to be an exemp- or Prince Metternich, Hans Morgenthau or
lar of realism. So will the sustainability of George Kennan who served as the unapologetic
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realism in the formulation and practice of advocate of Machtpolitik, Realpolitik, or raison


American foreign policymaking where it has d’état and placed the interests and security of
informed and driven policy for more than two his country before all.
hundred years. At least no politician or commentator is a
realist in his rhetoric. Yet once the glow and
honeyed words of the inauguration are past
and the administration actually has to advance
A Realist Foreign Policy America’s interests, the mask slips in deeds if
not in rhetoric, and realism is reborn. In fact,
President Barack Obama is no different. it never went away.
Every new president comes to office pledging
to break with the past and to conduct inter-
national politics with principle and morality. What Is Realism?
Each administration claims that it will bring
new ideas to international politics and will Realism is the oldest and most successful
not only break with the failed policies of its pre- theory of international politics. Its core argu-
decessor but will also lead the United States ments are universally understood despite
and the world to a new, brighter future while cultural or temporal differences. Julius Caesar
solving the problems the country faces and was a good realist, as was Hans Morgenthau
reducing the dangers. Such idealism is not lim- nineteen hundred years later. Thucydides
ited to presidents. Any review of foreign policy was, as is Hu Jintao. Thomas Jefferson was,
magazines will show that there is no shortage as is Nicholas Sarkozy. Realism’s verities are
of brighter paths and new theories of inter- timeless, equally understood, and applied by
national politics touting the flatness of the good Athenian democrats and loathsome
world in the era of globalization or why inter- Stalinist dictators.
national politics must ‘‘go green’’ to save the Fundamentally, there are four verities of
earth from disaster. realism. First, power is the essential component
2 Bradley A. Thayer

of international politics, and states have to seek Fourth, realists explain international
power to survive. If they fail to acquire and keep politics as it is, governed by the pursuit of
sufficient power, their security will be at risk. power and self-interest and by a lack of trust
They may be conquered like Kuwait in 1990 or that makes cooperation contingent rather than
become Finlandized, reduced to the status of a as we would wish it to be, a world of trust,
semisovereign state, the pawn of a great power. cooperation, and altruism. Realists see the
To avoid such an unhappy fate, they must arm world without illusion, which often contributes
themselves and secure alliances with other states. to suspicion and pessimism. As archetypical
Realists see the search for power as realist Oswald Spengler wrote: ‘‘Optimism is
inherent in human nature, and so realist expec- for cowards.’’ The world as we want it to be is
tations about behavior are just as relevant to the realm of the idealist, not the realist.
life in the corporate boardroom, in institutions Idealism is the realm of Norman Angell. In
like the European Union or the College of 1910, he explained why European countries
Cardinals or the Mafia as they are to inter- were too economically interdependent to go to
national politics. war. It is the realm of the innumerable theor-
Second, a state’s national interests are ists who explained why the United States
primary and must be advanced in all circum- should cooperate with the Soviet Union and
stances and by all means at the state’s disposal, not confront it, why Washington should disarm
through economic, military, and diplomatic rather than engage in an arms race with
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means, by both hard and soft power. It is regret- Moscow as a form of confrontation.
table that moral and legal principles are only
accepted to the extent that they coincide with
the state’s interests. In rhetoric, lofty principles The Relevance of Realism
are always acknowledged, but in deeds, they
may only be indicated if they advance the Today
interests of the state. The statesman’s first
loyalty is to the interests of his state. In academic and policy circles, it is fashion-
Third, a state can depend on or trust no able to criticize realism for a host of reasons. It
other states, and cooperation, such as alliances, is irredeemably ‘‘Machiavellian,’’ or unprogres-
is always contingent—it will last as long as sive because of its advocacy of self-interested
interests coincide. Lord Palmerston described behavior or because no cooperative solution is
his responsibilities with impeccable realist provided to solve the major problems plaguing
logic: ‘‘Britain has no permanent friends, only the international community such as the
permanent interests.’’ Examples abound. The causes of war. Of course, although no theory
mujahedeen were the allies of the United States captures the totality of international politics,
during the Soviet war in Afghanistan but realists often wear those charges as badges of
became America’s enemies when they played honor and respond: ‘‘Precisely.’’
host to Al Qaeda. The Soviet Union was an ally Despite those criticisms or the explicitly
during World War II and the bitterest of foes antirealist rhetoric of statesmen, realism is
during the cold war. China was an ally during as relevant today as it ever was. Obama is the
World War II and then a foe after the Commu- most leftist president America has elected and
nists came to power. It was once again an ally one who came to office pledging to repudiate
after Nixon’s visit and is now a rising, evermore the policies of his realist predecessor. He should
formidable enemy destined to become a ‘‘peer indeed be a tough case for realism.
competitor’’ of the United States that may Yet a tour of the horizon of major issues in
indeed supplant it as the world’s hegemon. international politics reveals what the realist

American Foreign Policy Interests


The Continued Relevance of Realism in the Age of Obama 3

suspects: Despite the rhetoric, the Obama to be deployed in the Caucasus. Although
administration is realist. The first stop on the Obama’s rejection of the Bush administration’s
tour is the nettlesome problem of Iran. Iran policy has been derided by critics—most
wants nuclear weapons for good realist reasons. vociferously in Warsaw and Prague—Obama’s
Iran faces many threats, too many to address plan actually has great strengths, although
solely with conventional arms, and has a they are little reported. The Obama missile
declining population, further weakening its defense system offers a greater likelihood that
ability to deter opponents. Nuclear weapons missiles launched from Iran will be intercepted
promise to keep a nuclear-armed Iran safe from in their boost phase, thus blowing up over Iran.
attack from the United States and Israel as Accordingly, U.S. allies in the Middle East and
well as keep them out of Iran’s business. Simi- Europe should be encouraged by it. Far from
larly, the Obama administration is attempting diminishing U.S. capabilities, the Obama plan
to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program for strengthens them against Iran.
good realist reasons. A nuclear-armed Iran will Third, the Obama policies in Iraq are almost
be harder for the United States to coerce. Also, exactly the same as those of President Bush.
it will be a threat to Washington’s interests and Once in office, Obama had to reject the promise
to the U.S. military and allies in the important of withdrawal made in the campaign. Instead, it
Persian Gulf region and will serve as a poten- is as if Bush had won a third term. Obama has
tial ‘‘proliferation conduit’’ in the future, embraced the gradual and contingent with-
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sharing nuclear technology, fissile material, drawal that the Bush administration advanced.
and nuclear knowledge with other states or Concerning Afghanistan, the Obama adminis-
terrorists. tration is out-Bushing Bush. It is continuing
At the same time, the Obama administra- to back the government of Hamid Karzai while
tion knows quite realistically that it cannot surging forces into that country as it accelerates
stop Iran’s nuclear program because of its covert action programs in Afghanistan and
advanced state, redundancy, and diversifi- Pakistan. Far from idealism, the Obama admin-
cation; its support from China and Russia; istration knows that the United States could
and the risks of retaliation for any attack lose in Afghanistan and is taking steps to
against America’s interests and the global econ- prevent such an outcome. Time will tell whether
omy. It is preparing for a nuclear-armed Iran the plans are successful, but the administration
and is quietly adjusting alliances and U.S. recognizes what is at stake and is acting as any
military force structure in the region. good realist administration would.
The next significant issue is the Obama Fourth, politics toward great powers such
administration’s decision not to deploy as Russia and China have not changed. The
ground-based interceptors in Poland and a Obama administration views Moscow with a
powerful radar in the Czech Republic. It would healthy suspicion but recognizes, as the Bush
seem that this decision is completely at odds administration did, that it is an important ally
with realism. However, when one examines on key issues—combating terrorism, piracy,
what Obama proposed instead, the weaponry dealing with North Korea, and many other
would actually be better for a confrontation issues—despite real divisions in interests
with Iran. between the two countries. But the most impor-
The Obama plan will deploy mobile tant shared interest they have is China. In
sea-based platforms in the eastern Mediterra- time, the growth of Chinese power will threaten
nean and ground-based platforms in Europe, both the United States and Russia, and that
including Turkey. This system will be augmen- common threat should bring them into some
ted by an existing U.S. radar in Israel and one type of alliance, even if it is not named as

American Foreign Policy Interests


4 Bradley A. Thayer

one. The decision to abandon the Bush adminis- American presidents in preparing for it. Do
tration’s European missile site should be seen not expect that to change, as Washington’s
in this light. The Obama administration wants interests in Asia have not.
to signal that it is willing to address some Rus-
sian concerns, even at the expense of alienating
NATO members. Likewise, the tepid support The Bright Future of
for Georgia in its effort to join NATO is a
marked contrast to the Bush administration’s
Realism: Plus Ça Change,
effort before the Russian–Georgian War of Plus C’est La Même Chose
August 2008 and should also be seen as an
effort to signal Russia that the United States Realism’s future is a brilliant one as long as
is willing to reduce support for allies in return statesmen have to worry about the security of
for advancing the shared interests of Moscow their state, labor to advance their country’s
and Washington. interests, and find it important to conceal their
With respect to China, although few com- true intentions. Clausewitz argued that war
mentators notice, the Obama administration has its own grammar, understood by the mili-
is continuing the Bush administration policies tary but not its own logic, which is a form of
on the major security issues in the Sino– the political art and thus better understood by
American relationship. The United States politicians. The review of the major issues
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continues to sell arms to Taiwan and support, confronting the United States today shows that
de facto, a two-China policy. After World War the Obama administration has its own gram-
II, the French novelist François Mauriac wrote: mar, which we should expect will continue to
‘‘I love Germany so much that I am glad there be often lofty and idealist, but its logic is realist.
are two of them.’’ Well, the same is true for Even in the age of Obama, realism is the right
the United States. A divided China is a weaker tool for comprehending American foreign
one, and observers should expect continued and and defense policy. Pity the Europeans and
strong support for Taiwan’s efforts to defend Americans who thought that transatlantic
itself from Chinese coercion, even if Washing- problems were Bush’s fault and a new age
ton does this sotto voce. would dawn with Obama’s election. They have
Unnoticed as well because of its gradual- come to realize that the interests of countries,
ism, the naval and air force presence of the not the personalities of their leaders, are pri-
United States in the Western Pacific continues mary. If you are ever in Vegas and have cause
to expand, although perhaps one step behind to bet on theories of international relations,
the growth of Chinese capabilities. Increasingly put your money on realism.
those capabilities explicitly target American
vulnerabilities. Moreover, the United States
has created a network of alliances in the coun- About the Author
tries bordering China. There is either an
American military presence in or close military Dr. Bradley A. Thayer is a professor of
cooperation with Afghanistan, India, Japan, political science at Baylor University. He is
Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Vietnam. Although the author or editor of five books, most recently
confrontation in the Sino–American relation- Debates in International Relations (2009). He
ship is not inevitable, the Obama administra- has served as a consultant to the Rand Corpor-
tion continues the policies of the last three ation and the Department of Defense.

American Foreign Policy Interests

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