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Stabilization Wedges
Tackling the Climate Problem with Existing Technologies

Roberta Hotinski RECS, UAB June 6, 2011

Fossil Fuel Burning

8
billion tons go in

ATMOSPHERE

4 billion tons added

every year
billion tons carbon

800

Ocean

Land Biosphere (net)

4 billion tons go out

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ATMOSPHERE

Doubled CO2 Today Pre-Industrial Glacial

Billions of tons of carbon

1200 800 600 400

(570)

(380) (285) (190)

billions of tons carbon

( ppm )

Why Wedges?

Graphic courtesy of IPCC

Predicted global temperature change of 1.4 - 5.8C by 2100

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Historical Emissions

16

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historical emissions

0 1950

2000

2050

2100

The Stabilization Triangle

16

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Stabilization Triangle

Interim Goal

Historical emissions

Flat path

1.6

0 1950

2000

2050

2100

Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.

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The Stabilization Triangle

16

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Easier CO2 target ~850 ppm

Stabilization Triangle

Interim Goal

Historical emissions

Flat path

To u

1.6

gh ~5 er C 00 O pp 2 tar m ge t

0 1950

2000

2050

2100

Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.

Stabilization Wedges

16

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

16 GtC/y

Eight wedges

Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today

Historical emissions

Flat path

1.6

0 1950

2000

2050

2100

Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.

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Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, 2005

World emissions: 27 billion tons CO2

AVERAGE TODAY 1STABILIZATION

Source: IEA WEO 2007

What is a Wedge ?
A wedge is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr avoided within 50 years

1 GtC/yr Total = 25 Gigatons carbon

50 years Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. A solution to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

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$100/tC
Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $100/tC can enable scale-up of most of the wedges. (PV is an exception.)

Form of Energy
Natural gas Crude oil Coal Gasoline Electricity from coal Electricity from natural gas

Equivalent to $100/tC
$1.50/1000 scf $12/barrel $65/U.S. ton 25/gallon (ethanol subsidy: 51/gallon) 2.2/kWh (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.9 /kWh) 1.0/kWh

$100/tC was approximately the EU trading price for carbon (~$30/ton CO2) in September 2008 (Now ~$18) A wedge is 2.5 trillion dollars ($100 billion/yr) at $100/tC.

15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories

Energy Efficiency & Conservation

Fossil Fuel-Based Strategies

Stabilization Stabilization Triangle

2008 2058

Nuclear Power

Renewables & Biostorage

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WedgeUse the Wedges Table to compare strategies: Table

= Electricity Production,
Strategy 1. Efficiency Transport Sector

=Heating and Direct Fuel Use,

Description

=Transportation,
Cost $

= Biostorage
Challenges Car size & power

1 wedge could come from doubling the efficiency of the all worlds cars from 30 to 60 mpg cutting miles traveled by all passenger vehicles in half using best available technology in all new and existing buildings raising plant efficiency from 40% to 60% injecting a volume of CO2 every year equal to the volume of oil extracted

Increase automobile fuel efficiency (2 billion cars projected in 2050) Reduce miles traveled by passenger and/or freight vehicles Increase insulation, furnace and lighting efficiency Increase efficiency of power generation CO2 from fossil fuel power plants captured, then stored underground (700 large coal plants or 1400 natural gas plants) Hydrogen fuel from fossil sources with CCS displaces hydrocarbon fuels Capture and store CO2 emitted during synfuels production from coal Replacing coal-burning electric plants with natural gas plants (1400 1 GW coal plants) Displace coal-burning electric plants with nuclear plants (2 x current capacity) Wind displaces coal-based electricity (30 x current capacity) Solar PV displaces coal-based electricity (700 x current capacity) Produce hydrogen with wind electricity Biomass fuels from plantations

2.

Conservation - Transport Efficiency Buildings Efficiency Electricity

Increased public transport, urban design House size, consumer demand for appliances Increased plant costs Possibility of CO2 leakage

3.

4.

5.

CCS Electricity

$$

6.

CCS Hydrogen

producing hydrogen at 10 times the current rate using CCS at 180 large synfuels plants using an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today ~3 times the effort France put into expanding nuclear power in the 1980s, sustained for 50 years using area equal to ~3% of U.S. land area for wind farms .. using the equivalent of a 100 x 200 km PV array powering half the worlds cars predicted for 2050 with hydrogen scaling up world ethanol

$$$

New infrastructure needed, hydrogen safety issues Emissions still only break even with gasoline Natural gas availability Weapons proliferation, nuclear waste, local opposition Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY)

7. 8.

CCS Synfuels Fuel Switching Electricity Nuclear Electricity

$$

9.

$$

10. Wind Electricity 11. Solar Electricity 12. Wind Hydrogen 13. Biofuels

$$

$$$

PV cell materials

$$ $$

NIMBY, Hydrogen infrastructure, safety Biodiversity,

Carbon Capture & Storage

Implement CCS at 800 GW coal electric plants or 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or 180 coal synfuels plants or 10 times today s capacity of hydrogen plants

Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey

There are currently three large-scale storage projects that each inject ~1 million tons of CO2 per year by 2055 need 3500. Requires about 100 times the amount of CO2 currently injected annually for EOR (most in the U.S.)

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Fuel Switching

Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities
Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).

A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today

A wedge worth of natural gas requires ~190 bscfd U.S. consumption ~65 bscfd U.S. currently imports ~ 12 bscfd Domestic shale gas production ~12 bscfd

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Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA

Efficiency

Produce today s electric capacity with double today s efficiency Double the fuel efficiency of the world s cars or halve miles traveled
There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today

Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings

Replacing all the world s incandescent bulbs with CFL s would provide 1/4 of one wedge

Five ways to cut 1 tonC/yr by half

1 ton carbon/yr a) Drive b) Drive c) Fly d) Heat home e) Appliances 10,000 mi/yr 30 mpg 10,000 mi/yr, 30 mpg 10,000 miles/yr Cut in half 60 mpg 5,000 miles/yr 5,000 miles/yr How? Lighter, less power(?) Live closer to work Video-conference

Nat. gas, av. house, av. Insulate, double-pane windows, fewer climate leaks, condensing furnace, 300 kWh/month when Permanently replace twenty 60W all-coal power incandescent bulbs, lit 6 hrs/day, with (600 kWh/month, NJ) compact uorescents.

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Nuclear Electricity

Triple the world s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055

Graphic courtesy of NRC

The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990.

104 of world s 435 nuclear electric plants are in the United States

Wind Electricity

Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coalbased electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel

Photo courtesy of DOE

A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 10 Current U.S. capacity about 35,000 MW

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Solar Electricity

Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054

Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program

A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity by 100 times US PV potential estimated to be ~500 GW
(Navigant Consulting and Clean Power Research, Study for the Energy Foundation)

Biofuels

Scale up current global ethanol production by 12 times

Photo courtesy of NREL

Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops Need ~1000 billion liters ethanol per year for a wedge U.S. currently producing ~40 billion liters/yr

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Natural Sinks
Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S. OR Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha)

Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland U.S. forest sequestration potential estimated at 100-200 million tons C/yr
(Birdsey et al.)

Photo courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO

Take Home Messages

To avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy lowcarbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions No one technology can do the whole job a variety of strategies will be needed Every wedge has associated impacts and costs

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The Wedges Game

What are the rules?

You can use strategies more than once (except Transport Eciency) There is no right answer, but you need to make a compelling argument for your porVolio Your case should address environmental, poliWcal, and social implicaWons of wedges, as well as challenges for implementaWon Cuts should not all come from one sector

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Carbon Emissions by Energy Sector

Need 8 wedges...

Electricity

Heat

... not all cuts can come from one sector!

5
Transportation

5
Biostorage wedges do not count against an energy sector

Feel free to add strategies, e.g.

Industrial energy eciency "Upstream" investment Concentrated solar power Methane mi;ga;on Popula;on Hydropower Cellulosic biofuels Air/truck/shipping transport Tidal and wave power - large poten;al, but currently very expensive. Geothermal

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From McKibben, Carbon s New Math, National Geographic, October 2007

From Socolow & Pacala, A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check, Scientific American, Sept. 2006

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BREAK

16

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Efficiency Transport Conservation Transport Efficiency Buildings Efficiency Electricity Production CCS Electricity CCS Hydrogen CCS Synfuels Fuel Switch Nuclear Electricity Wind Electricity Solar Electricity Wind Hydrogen Biofuels Forest Storage Soil Storage

Wedges totals (average of event)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Transport Eff. Conservation Transp. Building Eff. Electric Eff. CCS Electricity CCS Hydrogen CCS Synfuels 1 Fuel Switch Nuclear Electricity Wind Electricity Solar Wind Hydrogen Biofuels Forest/Soil Storage

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Goodbye, Annex I
AQUILA MATH: At Aquila last summer the G-8 announced two percentagereduction goals for 2050 (relative to some recent time): 50% reductions in global emissions, and 80% reductions in OECD emissions. Hardly anyone observed that these two goals require a third, because almost exactly half of global emissions today come from outside the OECD: 20% reductions in non-OECD emissions The point isn't the numbers. Rather, it is the manners. The non-OECD was told. It was not asked. The same two goals reappeared in Copenhagen.

Web screenshot for wedges NEVER FAILS!

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For more information contact Roberta Hotinski hotinski@princeton.edu

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