ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

Unit 8
Structure

TrendsinMIS

8.1 Introduction 8.2 DecisionSupportSystems(DSS) 8.2.1 IntroductiontoDSS 8.2.2 DSScomponents 8.2.3 ModelofDSS 8.3 ArtificialIntelligence(AI) 8.3.1 IntroductiontoArtificialIntelligence 8.3.2 IntroductiontoNeuralNetworks 8.3.3 ArtificialIntelligenceandNeuralNetworks 8.3.4 IntroductiontoExpertSystems 8.3.5 ExpertSystemsStructure 8.3.6 DifferencesbetweenDSSandES 8.3.7 BusinessApplications 8.4 Summary TerminalQuestions AnswertoSAQsandTQs

8.1

Introduction

ForthelastfewdecadesitMISisperceivedbydifferentpeopleinorganizationsdifferently.MIShas been evolving in different forms under different levels of management. Some of the developments arerecentandsomearestillinthedevelopmentstage.Theresearchcontinues.

LearningObjective Aftergoingthroughthisunit,studentswillbeabletounderstand i) ThevarioustrendsinMIS.

SikkimManipalUniversity

118

ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

ii) DecisionSupportSystemsanditscomponents iii) ExpertsystemsanditsstructureofMIS iv) ArtificialIntelligencesystemsand v) Neuralnetworks 8.2 DecisionSupportSystems

8.2.1 IntroductiontoDSS DSS is an interactive, flexible computer based information system. It uses rules and models for processing data, to support various managerial levels, ranging from top executives to mangers, in their decisionmaking. It supports all phases of decisionmaking: intelligence, design, choice and implementation. ADSSisusuallybuilttosupportthesolutionofcertainproblemanddoesnotreplacethedecision maker.Assuch,itiscalledaDSSapplication.Itisuserfriendlywithstronggraphicalcapabilities. 8.2.2 DSScomponents The components of a DSS include a database of data used for query and analysis, software with models,dataminingandotheranalyticaltoolsandauserinterface. The DSS database is a collection of current or historical data from a number of applications or groups. It can be small database or a massive data warehouse from a large company, which is continuouslybeingupdated. The DSS software system includes software tools for data analysis. They contain various OLAP tools, data mining tools or a collection of mathematical and analytical models. A model can be a physical model, a mathematical model or a verbal model. Most commonly used are the statistical functionssuchasmeans,medians,deviationsandscatterplots.Optimizationmodelssuchaslinear programmingareusedtodetermineoptimalresourceallocation.

SikkimManipalUniversity

119

ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

TPS

External data DSS database

DSSsoftwaresystem Models OLAPtools Dataminingtools User Interface

User

ComponentofaDecisionSupportSystem

SikkimManipalUniversity

120

ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

8.2.3 ModelofDSS Themodelofa DSS mayberepresentedasa blockdiagramasindicatedbelow

Database managementto supportdecision makingprocess

Managingthe decisionmodels

Use of appropriate decision support software

MANAGER

SelfAssessmentQuestion1:TrueorFalse 1. DSS uses rules and modelsfor processing data, to support various managerial levels, ranging from top executives to mangers, in their decisionmaking. It supports all phases of decision making:intelligence,design,choiceandimplementation. 2. The TPSdatabase is a collection of currentor historical datafromanumber of applications or groups. 8.3 ArtificialIntelligence(AI) 8.3.1 IntroductiontoArtificialIntelligence ArtificialIntelligenceisthescienceandtechnologybasedonvariousfunctionstodevelopasystem that can think and work like a human being. It can reason, analyze, learn, conclude and solve problems.Thesystemswhichusethistypeofintelligenceareknownasartificialintelligentsystems andtheirintelligenceisreferredtoasartificialintelligence.Itwassaidthatthecomputerdonthave commonsense.HereinAI,themainideaistomakethecomputerthinklikehumanbeings,sothatit can be then said that computers also have common sense. More precisely the aim is to obtain a knowledgebasedcomputersystemthatwillhelpmanagerstotakequickdecisionsinbusiness.

SikkimManipalUniversity

121

ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

Artificial Intelligence can be classified into various branches like Natural Language Processing (NLP), Speech Recognition, Automated Programming, Machine Learning, Pattern Recognition and ProbabilisticNetworks.MostofthesoftwaredevelopedforAIhavebeenthroughProlog,C++,Java and LISP. These programming languages provide facility of creating various functions of business activity, extension of a function, handling dynamic situations in business, providing uniformity in applicationetc. Abusinessdecisionmakingprocessdependsuponthelevelofriskanduncertaintyinvolvedinthe problem.TomodeltheuncertaintyandriskofnaturallanguageusedindevelopingaAIforbusiness applicationtheconceptoffuzzylogicisused.Forproblemsrelatedfinanceapplicationsapartfrom fuzzy logic concepts, two other concepts of AI are being researched. These are genetic algorithm andchaoticmodels.AIisalsobeingappliedtothefunctionsofmarketinglikeSelling,Forecasting, Communicationetc. 8.3.2 IntroductiontoNeuralNetworks(NN) Itismodeledonthebasisoftheneuronstructureofthehumanbrain.Aneuronisamicrocellwhich isconnectedtothousandsofothermicrocellsinthebrainandalltheotherpartsofthehumanbody containing nerves. It is a system which tries to learn from the database and the manager then decideswhattherightansweris.Theentireneuralnetworkisrealizedintheformofsoftware.The softwarerendersthecomputerasaproblemsolver. The neural networks goes on building strong database for problem solving depending upon the decisions taken by the manager in the form of response confirmation given to the system by the manager. Neural networks can be used in various business applications like forecasting, stock analysis,marketanalysisetc. AdvantagesofNeuralNetworks: Neural networks are used to forecast some complex data patterns. When designed properly, they can be used as experts for a particular project. They have the ability to adjust to the changing environmentandthusareveryflexible.Forexample,itcanforecastnetassetvaluesofmutualfunds

SikkimManipalUniversity

122

ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

with 40% accuracy. They take into account all variables and relationships between the data and detectpatternsandtrendsinanysetofdata. Disadvantagesofneuralnetworks The process of designing the neural networks is very complex and time consuming. The network needstobetrainedcontinuously,withdifferentsetsofdata.Inthetrainingphase,largevolumesof examples are used. Without repeated training, the accuracy of the network will decline. If there is overtraining,withlargeamountsofdata,alsoleadstoinaccuracy.Sometimes,thereisinstabilityin problemsolving.Withthedataconstantlychanging,itisdifficulttorepeatasolutiontoaproblemand unable to explain how they arrived at that solution. Neural networks results are often criticized because of the fact that they are unable to give justification of how a particular solution has been arrivedat.Therulesarecompletelynotunderstood. 8.3.3 ArtificialIntelligenceandNeuralNetworks

Artificial intelligence is a field of science and technology based on disciplines such as computer science,biology,psychology,linguistics,mathematicsandengineering.ThegoalofAIistodevelop computers that can simulate the ability to think, see, hear, walk, talk and feel. In other words, simulation of computer functions normally associated with human intelligence, such as reasoning, learningandproblemsolving. AI can be grouped under three major areas: cognitive science, robotics and natural interfaces. [SourceMIS7thedition,JamesOBrienandGeorgeMMarakasTataMcGrawHill]. Cognitivesciencefocusesonresearchingonhowthehumanbrainworksandhowhumansthinkand learn.ApplicationsinthecognitivescienceareaofAIincludethedevelopmentofexpertsystemsand other knowledgebased systems that add a knowledge base and some reasoning capability to information systems. Also included are adaptive learning systems that can modify their behavior based on information they acquire as they operate. Chessplaying systems are some examples of suchsystems.

SikkimManipalUniversity

123

ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

Fussylogicsystemscanprocessdatathatareincompleteorambiguous.Thus,theycansolvesemi structuredproblemswithincompleteknowledgebydevelopingapproximateinferencesandanswers, ashumansdo. Neural network software can learn by processing sample problems and their solutions. As neural nets start to recognizepatterns,they canbeginto programthemselves to solve such problemson theirown. Neural networks are computing systems modeled after the human brains mesh like network of interconnectedprocessingelements,calledneurons.Thehumanbrainisestimatedtohaveover100 billion neuron brain cells. The neural networks are lot simpler in architecture. Like the brain, the interconnectedprocessorsinaneuralnetworkoperateinparallelandinteractdynamicallywitheach other. Thisenablesthenetworktooperateandlearnfromthedataitprocesses,similartothehumanbrain. That is, it learns to recognize patterns and relationships in the data. The more data examples it receivesasinput,thebetteritcanlearntoduplicatetheresultsoftheexamplesitprocesses.Thus, the neural networks will change the strengths of the interconnections between the processing elementsinresponsetochangingpatternsinthedataitreceivesandresultsthatoccur. Forexample,neuralnetworkcanbetrainedtolearnwhichcreditcharacteristicsresultingoodorbad loans. The neural network would continue to be trained until it demonstrated a high degree of accuracyincorrectlyduplicatingtheresultsofrecentcases.Atthatpointitwouldbetrainedenough tobeginmakingcreditevaluationsofitsown. Genetic algorithm software uses Darwinian (survival of the fittest), randomizing and other mathematics functions to simulate evolutionary processes that can generate increasingly better solutionstoproblems.

SikkimManipalUniversity

124

ManagementInformationSystems Artificial Intelligence

Unit8

Cognitive Science Applications

Robotics Applications

Natural Interface Applications

Expertsystems Learningsystems Fuzzylogic Geneticalgorithms Neuralnetworks Intelligentagents

Visualperception Tactility Dexterity locomotion Navigation

Naturallanguages Speechrecognition Multisensoryinterfaces Virtualreality

Robotics: Ai, engineering and physiology are the basic disciplines of robotics. This technology produces robot machines with computer intelligence and computercontrolled, humanlike physical capabilities.Thisareathusincludesapplicationsdesignedtogiverobotsthepowerofsight,orvisual perceptiontouchortactilecapabilitiesdexterityorskillinhandlingandmanipulationlocomotion,or thephysicalabilitytomoveoveranyterrainandnavigation,ortheintelligencetoproperlyfindones waytoadestination. NaturalinterfacesThedevelopmentofnaturalinterfacesisessentialtothenaturaluseofcomputers byhumans.Developmentofnaturallanguagesandspeechrecognitionaremajorthrustsinthisarea ofAI.Beingabletotalktocomputersandrobotsinconversationalhumanlanguagesandhavethem understandusaseasilyasweunderstandeachotherisagoalofAIresearch.Thisinvolvesresearch anddevelopmentinlinguistics,psychology,computerscienceandotherdisciplines. Othernaturalinterfaceresearchapplicationsincludethedevelopmentofmultisensorydevicesthat useavarietyofbodymovementstooperatecomputers.Thisisrelatedtotheemergingapplication area of virtual reality. Virtual reality involves using multisensory human computer interfaces that enable human users to experience computer simulated objects, spaces activities and worlds as if theyactuallyexist.
SikkimManipalUniversity

125

ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

8.3.4 IntroductiontoExpertSystems Anexpertsystemisaknowledgebasedinformationsystemthatusesitsknowledgeaboutaspecific, complexapplicationareatoactasanexpertconsultanttoendusers.ItisacomponentofArtificial Intelligence.Expertsystemsprovideanswerstoquestionsinaveryspecificproblemareabymaking humanlikeinferencesaboutknowledgecontainedinaspecializedknowledgebase.Expertsystems can provide decision support to end users in the form of advice from an expert consultant in a specificproblemarea. 8.3.5 ExpertSystemsStructure Thecomponentsofanexpertsystemincludeaknowledgebaseandsoftwaremodulesthatperform inferences on the knowledge in the knowledge base and communicate answers to a users questions. Theknowledgebaseofanexpertsystemcontains Factsaboutaspecificarea,Heuristics(thumbsofrule)thatexpressthereasoningproceduresofan expertonthesubject.Therearemanywaysthatknowledgeisrepresentedinexpertsystems: Casebasedreasoning:Representingknowledgeinanexpertsystemsknowledgebaseintheform ofcases. Framebasedknowledge:Knowledgerepresentedintheformofahierarchyornetworkofframes.A frame is a collection of knowledgeaboutan entity consistingofa complexpackageofdata values describingitsattributes. Objectbased knowledge: Knowledge represented as a network of objects. An object is a data elementthatincludesbothdataandthemethodsorprocessesthatactonthosedata. Rulebased knowledge: Knowledge represented in the form of rules and statements of fact. Rules are statements that typically take theform ofapremise anda conclusion such as : IF (condition), Then(conclusion). Software resources: An expert system software package contains an inference engine and other programs for refining knowledge and communicating with users. The inference engine program processes the knowledge (such as rules and facts) related to a specific problem. It then makes associations and inferences resulting in recommended courses of actionfor a user. User interface programs for communicating with endusers are also needed, including anexplanation program to explainthereasoningprocesstoauserifrequested.
SikkimManipalUniversity

126

ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

8.3.6 DifferencesbetweenDSSandES ItispossibletointegrateESwithDSS.Theremaybesomecomponentswhichmaylooksimilarin DSSandES.Butoneshouldunderstandthedifferencesbetweenthem.Itthenbecomesclearasto howintegrationofESwithDSScanberealized. ADSShelpsmanagertotakeadecisionwhereasanESactsasadecisionmakeroranadvisorto themanager. ADSSismeantonlyfordecisionmakingwhereasanESprovidesexpertisetothemanager. The spectrum of complexity is high in DSS and low in ES since ES addresses issues related to specificareasonly. DSSdoesnotcapabilitytoreasonwhereasanEShas. ADSScannotprovidedetailedexplanationabouttheresultswhereasanEScan. Hencebyintegratingthetwoitispossibletheblendtheiradvantagesandderivethebestoutofthe two. 8.3.7 BusinessApplications Expert systems help diagnose illness, search minerals, analyze compounds, recommend repairs, anddofinancialplanning.Sofromastrategicbusinesspoint,expertsystemscanandarebeingused toimproveeverystepoftheproductcycleofabusiness,fromfindingcustomerstoshippingproducts toprovidingcustomerservice.ESprovidesacostreducedsolution,consistentadvicewithlowlevel oferrors,solutiontohandleequipmentswithouttheinterferenceofhuman.Itprovidesahighdegree ofreliabilityandfasterresponsetime.Ithelpstosolvecomplexproblemwithinasmalldomain. It is capable of analyzing the problem and can construct a business model appropriate to the characteristics of the application. Based on the model necessary objectives and constraints are identified.Itidentifiesappropriatetoolstosolvethemodel.Itusesthetoolstosolvetheproblemand alsodoesthewhatifanalysisaimedatunderstandingthesensitivityofthemodel. SelfAssessmentQuestions2 1. _________isthescienceandtechnologybasedonvariousfunctionstodevelopasystemthat canthinkandworklikeahumanbeing.

SikkimManipalUniversity

127

ManagementInformationSystems

Unit8

2. A_______isamicrocellwhichisconnectedtothousandsofothermicrocellsinthebrainandall theotherpartsofthehumanbodycontainingnerves.Itisasystemwhichtriestolearnfromthe databaseandthemanagerthendecideswhattherightansweris. 3. ThegoalofAIistodevelopcomputersthatcan________theabilitytothink,see,hear,walk,talk and feel. In other words, simulation of computer functions normally associated with human intelligence,suchasreasoning,learningandproblemsolving. 4. ___________ provide answers to questions in a very specific problem areaby makinghuman likeinferencesaboutknowledgecontainedinaspecializedknowledgebase.Expertsystemscan providedecisionsupporttoendusersintheformofadvicefromanexpertconsultantinaspecific problemarea. 8.4Summary In this unit the various trends in MIS has been explained. Students would have understood the DecisionSupportSystemsanditscomponents.Thetheoreticalexplanationofexpertsystemsandits MIS structure has been given. Student would have learnt the concepts of Artificial Intelligence systemsandNeuralnetworksandtheirapplicationsinbusinessinformationsystem. TerminalQuestions 1. ExplaintheDecisionSupportSystemsindetail. 2. WhatisArtificialIntelligence?HowisitdifferentfromNeuralNetworks? 3. HowcanexpertsystemsbeusefulinMISandmanagementdecisionmakingprocess? 4. WhatarethedifferencesbetweenDSSandES? AnswerstoSelfAssessmentQuestions SAQ1:1True,2False SAQ2:1ArtificialIntelligence,2Neuron,3Simulate,4ExpertSystem AnswertoTerminalQuestion 1. Refer8.2 2. Refer8.3 3. Refer8.3.4and8.3.5 4. Refer8.3.6
SikkimManipalUniversity

128