Power Sector Overview

Generation

1.Total Installed Capacity: Sector State Sector Central Sector Private Sector Total MW 82,026.05 51,867.63 33,183.68 1,67,077.36 %age 52.5 34.0 13.5

Fuel Total Thermal Coal Gas Oil Hydro (Renewable) Nuclear RES** (MNRE) Total

MW 108362.98 89,778.38 17,384.85 1,199.75 37,367.40 4,560.00 16,786.98 1,67,077.36

%age 64.6 53.3 10.5 0.9 24.7 2.9 7.7

Renewable Energy Sources(RES) include SHP, BG, BP, U&I and Wind Energy SHP= Small Hydro Project ,BG= Biomass Gasifier ,BP= Biomass Power, U & I=Urban & Industrial Waste Power, RES=Renewable Energy Sources
Source : powermin.nic.in

, transmission , distribution , find out some stats ??

Acts
Indian Electricity act 1910 Primary covered technical and operating standards of the power sector , provided state governments to grant licenses for supplying power in a geog. Area. Electricity laws ( Amendement , 98 ) Aug , 98 Indian Electricity act amended to get the electricity laws act. Introduced several measured related transmission sub segment y y y y Defined inter state , intra state and transmission licence. Defined role of CTU and STU central / state transmission utilities to plan , co ordinate, supervise nd control all inter / intra state transmission. Provided for transmitting licence for construction , maintainence and operation of transmission lines. Specified the role of CERC , central electricity regulatory commission and SERC wrt to CTU and STU

The Electricity Supply Act ( 48) y y y The creation of the state sector Financing norms for performance of the electricity industry Creation of SEB , CGU and CEA ( for planning at national level )

Amendment to supply act (98) y y y To provide for private participation , 100% foreign equity participation by foreign private investors in Indian Electricity sector Policy guidelines for PP in renovation and modernisation issues in 95 Mega power policy announced in 95

Electricity regulatory commission Act (98) y y y Separate regulatory bodies at central and state levels. Creation of Central and State transmission utilities Greater pvt and public participation in Transmission which would be considered as separate activity

The Electricity Act 2003

Industry dynamics Key features of Electricity Act, 2003 Regulators to play an important role; Focus on efficiency improvement; Cross-subsidies to come down and be eliminated; and Power trading to be encouraged. Impact The losses within the system (T&D losses) came down from 34-35 per cent in 2002-03 to around 28 per cent in 2006-07. Stringent norms in case of loss reduction, improvement in metering status and initiatives taken by states to curb power theft have led to improvement in the system s efficiency. However, cross-subsidising of consumers continues. The concept of power trading has gained prominence post the Electricity Act, 2003. Power Trading Corporation (PTC) was set up to meet the short term requirement of electricity. However, higher price of trading has resulted in the government imposing a ceiling on power trading margins. India also has its first power exchange in the form of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX), a subsidiary of Financial Technologies in consortium with PTC. Power consumers Key features of Electricity Act, 2003 Consumers would be allowed to source power from the supplier of their choice; Availability based tariff (ABT) system introduced to avoid grid failures; and Tariffs continue to be regulated. Impact Open access is available to consumers consuming more than 1 MW of power in a number of states. Industrial and bulk consumers are beneficiaries and they are free to source power from a supplier of their choice. The implementation of open access at the retail level, though, would take some time. The introduction of ABT system has helped to bring in grid discipline in the system. High unscheduled interchange (UI) charge, which has increased over the years from Rs 4.20 per kWh to Rs 7.35 per kWh, has forced states to stick to their power drawing schedules. The Electricity (Amendment) Act, 2007 The key takeaways from the amendment report were: Central government, jointly with state governments, to endeavour to provide access to electricity to all areas including villages and hamlets; No licence required for sale from captive units; Removal of the provision for elimination of cross-subsidies. The provision for reduction of cross subsidies would continue; and Definition of theft expanded to cover use of tampered meters and use for unauthorised purpose. Theft made explicitly cognisable and non-bailable. The government has omitted the words and eliminated in the context of cross-subsidies. Earlier, in the Tariff Policy dated January 2006, the government suggested that by the end of 2010-11, the tariff should be +/- 20 per cent of the cost of supply, in conjunction to the Electricity Act, which envisaged the complete elimination of cross-subsidies. For this, the policy suggested that SERCs prepare a road map to achieve the target. However, the amendment in the Act suggests that cross-subsidies would be gradually reduced and not completely eliminated as per the earlier provision of elimination of cross-

subsidy . The amendment is likely to make states more lenient in setting targets for cross-subsidy reduction. This may act as a setback to the reforms process as elimination of cross-subsidies is one of the most important pre-requisites for tariff rationalisation and improvement of state utility financials. National Electricity Policy, 2005 The following were the main objectives of the National Electricity Policy: Power to all - access to electricity for all households in next 5 years; Availability of power - demand to be fully met by 2012. Energy and peaking shortages overcome and adequate spinning reserve of 5 per cent to be made available; Supply of reliable and quality power of specified standards in an efficient manner and at reasonable rates; Per capita availability of electricity to be increased to over 1,000 units by 2012; Minimum lifeline consumption of 1 unit per household per day by 2012; Financial turnaround and commercial viability of electricity sector; and Protection of consumer s interest. Keeping the National Electricity Policy (2005) in mind, the government has announced huge capacity additions for meeting the Power for all by 2012 vision. The Tenth and Eleventh Plan were supposed to add capacities to the tune of 100,000 MW, with around 40,000 MW in the Tenth Plan and over 66,000 MW by the end of Eleventh Plan. However, the Tenth Plan saw capacity additions of only 21,095 MW; hence, the revised estimates for the Eleventh Plan are at 78,700 MW. National Tariff Policy, 2006 Some of the main features of the tariff policy were: All future requirement of power needs to be procured competitively by distribution licensees, except in cases of expansion of existing projects or where there is a state controlled/owned company as an identified developer; The Central and state power generating companies are exempted from the competitive bidding procedure for a period of 5 years and till when the time is suitable for introducing such competition; It provides the framework for performance-based cost of service regulation in respect of aspects common to generation, transmission as well as distribution; Rate of return to be notified by the CERC for generation and transmission. The rate of return notified for transmission would be adopted by SERCs for distribution also with appropriate modification to take into account the higher risks involved in distribution; For financing of future capital cost of projects, a debt-equity ratio of 70:30 should be adopted. Promoters would be free to have higher quantum of equity investments. The equity in excess of this norm should be treated as loans advanced at the weighted average rate of interest and for a weighted average tenor of the long term debt component of the project after ascertaining the reasonableness of the interest rates and taking into account the effect of debt restructuring done, if any. In case of equity below the normative level, the actual equity would be used for determination of return on equity in tariff computations; The depreciation rates for generation and transmission to be notified by the CERC. These rates are to be adopted by SERCs also for distribution with suitable modification as evolved by the Forum of Regulators (FOR). Same rates of depreciation would be applicable for tariff as well as accounting purposes;

It emphasises the need of keeping duties like electricity duty at reasonable levels for making electricity available at reasonable prices; Multi-year tariff framework to be adopted for tariff to be determined from April 1, 2006; Aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) loss reduction to be incentivised; Requires retail tariffs to be gradually linked to cost of supply of electricity for different consumer categories; It gives essential features of commercial arrangements for harnessing surplus power available from captive generators; Future requirements of energy from non-conventional sources to be procured as far as possible through competitive bidding to bring down costs; In line with the National Electricity Policy (NEP), national tariff framework for transmission has been implemented to ensure sharing of the total transmission cost among the users in proportion to their respective utilisation of the system; and

Power Sector Structure

Functions of regulatory authority CEA Formulation of the National Electricity Plan in accordance with the National Electricity Policy; Main technical advisor of the government and regulatory commissions; and Specifies the technical standards and safety requirements for construction, operation and maintenance of electrical standards and electrical lines. CERC Regulates tariff of generating companies owned or controlled by the Central government; To regulate the inter-state transmission of energy including tariff of the transmission utilities; To grant licences for inter-state transmission and trading; and To advise the Central government in formulation of National Electricity Policy and Tariff Policy.

SERC Determines tariffs for generation, supply, transmission and wheeling of electricity, wholesale, bulk or retail sale within the state; and To issue licences for intra-state transmission, distribution and trading; to promote co-generation and generation of electricity from renewal sources of energy etc. CTU Undertakes the transmission of energy through inter-state transmission system; and Planning and coordination of inter-state transmission systems. STU Undertakes transmission of energy through intra-state transmission system; and Planning and coordination of intra-state transmission system.

National load despatch centres National load despatch centre (NLDC) has been set up as an apex body to ensure integrated power system in each region; It is responsible for the despatch of electricity within the regions, monitoring grid operations etc; and Regional load despatch centres Regional load despatch centre (RLDC) has been set up to ensure integrated power system in each region; It is responsible for the despatch of electricity within the regions, monitoring grid operations etc; and It provides directions for ensuring grid stability. State load despatch centres State load despatch centres (SLDCs) have been formed to ensure integrated power system in intra state; and

It has the responsibility for the despatch of electricity within the state, monitoring intra-grid operations etc. Appellate tribunals Appellate tribunals were set up under the Electricity Act, 2003 to hear appeals against orders of the Electricity Regulatory Commissions (ERC). Structure Appellate tribunals consist of a Chairperson and three members, at least one of them must be a judicial member and one a technical member; and A member shall hold office for a period of 3 years from the date of entering office. Functions/powers The discovery and production of documents; To receive evidence on affidavits; To set up commissions for the examination of witnesses or documents; and To review its decisions

Power Minister: Shushil Kumar Shinde

Power Sector Industry Structure

Major Companies in Power Sector

Company NTPC Reliance Pow er State Utilities NHPC JPL JPVL Adani Pow er Indiabulls Pow er KSK Energy Lanco Inf ratech JSW Energy Tata Pow er Essar Pow er GMR CESC Sterlite Energy GVKPIL Avantha Pow er Monnet Pow er JSPL Total Announced Capacity (MW) 36,780 33,180 21,000 18,608 14,440 12,770 10,890 10,742 10,658 9,942 9,595 8,950 6,420 5,798 4,520 4,380 4,330 3,720 3,050 600 230,373

Governments 5 year plan

Major Hurdles faced by the sector

(From KPMG Report) Project Execution remains the major problem hence in all the plans India has had a significant short falls. Looking at the major hurdles : 1) Fuel Availability Domestic availability of coal is subjected to supply constraints and hence some of the players depend on imported coal. Few of them have started to purchase, develop and operate mines in international geographies.

Imported Coal JSW => South Africa Reliance Power => Reliance Coal Resources => Indonesia The main international market for coal supply to India Indonesia, poses significant political and legal risks in the form of changing regulatory framework towards foreign companies. Similarly, coal evacuation from mines in South Africa is constrained by their limited railway capacity and the capacity at ports is controlled by a group of existing users making it difficult for a new entrant to ensure reliable evacuation. In this case it is essential to manage the risk of supply disruption by different options like diversification of supply, due diligence on suppliers, unambiguous contracting and strict monitoring among others. Captive Coal mines The failure to achieve the planned target from the captive coal blocks presents itself as a major challenge to the power sector, as only 24 blocks have become operational out of the total 210. Experts believe that the non-operational status of majority of these blocks is attributed to land acquisition (R&R) issues, permit delays and infrastructure problems. In addition, the developers who have been given the charge of captive blocks are not putting diligent efforts to expedite the mining operations due to their lack of experience in coalmine development.

Rail & Port Infrastructure Coal is the mainstay of the power production in India and is expected to remain so in the future. Additional power generation is likely to require incremental amount of coal transportation by Indian Railways within the country and increasing unloading at ports in India for imported coal. In both cases India currently faces capacity shortage. Hence, a project developer has to account for and manage its logistics chain in a manner that minimizes disruption to its fuel supply. In many cases this is likely to involve self development of relevant supply infrastructure which poses additional project execution complexity for the developer. For example, some imported coal based power plants are also forced to set up an unloading jetty for coal carrying shipping vessels. This has to be ensured before the commissioning of a power plant which requires an alternate set of project execution skills in the port sector.

2) Equipment Shortage Equipment shortages have been a significant reason for India missing its capacity addition targets for the 10th five year plan. While the shortage has been primarily in the core components of Boilers, Turbines

and Generators, there has been lack of adequate supply of Balance of Plant (BOP) equipment as well. These include coal-handling, ashhandling plants, etc. Apart from these, there is shortage of construction equipment as well. The Working Group on Power for 11th Plan has outlined the requirement for construction equipment for Hydro and Thermal power plants. To alleviate supply shortage of equipment two measures are being adopted enhancement of domestic equipment manufacturing capability by establishing JVs between Indian and foreign suppliers and second measure is procuring equipment directly from international markets. In both cases equipment sourcing needs to be managed effectively throughout the procurement cycle. For instance, it may be a challenge for new project owners to select a reliable supplier, monitor its performance and ensure the quality of supply on a sustained basis. Also, the timelines for availability of additional domestic equipment supply has not been clearly defined.

<The exact number of the equipments required is tabulated in the report pg. 8,9 but of no use>

<READ MORE ON POINTS BELOW> 3) Financial Rapid build up of the generation capacity is being aided by setting up of Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) each of which is 4000 MW. However, the execution of the Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPP) is a significant challenge as India has not witnessed an execution of such a large scale power project before. Furthermore, with each UMPP costing above INR 16,000 Crore, financing such a large project is a critical constraint for any developer. In addition, considering the high financial stake involved through private investments, delay in payments may put severe pressure on developers/suppliers to meet the performance commitments.

4) Land Acquisition and Environment Clearance Land Acquisition poses an increasingly significant challenge in the Indian Power sector. Power plants and utilities face major constraints and delays regarding the availability of land and obtaining the requisite environment and other clearances for the projects. The new Bill relating to land acquisition has continued to face political opposition. While it provides for acquisition by project development agencies to the extent of 70 percent of the land required for a project, with the balance to be obtained by the Government. In addition, it has been reported that in some cases, even after land owners were asked to sell and handover their land in Public Interest , the project was not completed for several years due to other delays, a fact that eroded the credibility of both the industry and the government. Consequently there is a significant mismatch of expectations from the Project Affected Persons (PAP). Stakeholders or other land owners may collectively object of the project execution. In such cases, it is essential to proactively manage the environment and stakeholders expectations.

5) Manpower Shortage There is a general consensus that shortage of talent in the construction sector is a long term problem and is likely to continue to push up project costs and risks. The flow of talent into construction and power sector has been gradually drying up as candidates have sought an alternative and often more lucrative career options. The Government, which is the biggest buyer of the capital projects, has also not done enough to address this challenge. The education system is often not delivering the required number of specialists across project management, engineering, estimating, surveying and contract management. Facing a desperate game of catch up, the industry needs a genuine collaboration between project owners, contractors and governments to attract more school leavers and graduates. Companies should also seek to stay in touch with changing employee aspirations. By encouraging diversity in its employment practices and by offering greater flexibility in working hours, the sector can reach out to a wider potential audience that perhaps would not previously have considered such a career. Investment in existing employees is also crucial in order to offer betterdefined career structures, with a greater focus on training and higher salaries where possible.

6) Schedule Dependency on Transmission Lines Significant enhancement in construction activity is likely to be required to meet the 11th plan target of additional transmission capacity. A significant portion of this enhancement is likely to be in the North Eastern region, Sikkim and Bhutan, which have difficult terrain reducing the margin of error for project execution. Additional transmission capacity is required to evacuate power from surplus regions to supply to deficit regions and to enable electricity trading. This is essential to meet the target of Power for all . Hence, the criticality of implementing transmission projects cannot be ignored. In this context, it is imperative to establish sound project management principles to the sector to help ensure timely completion of projects.From the perspective of power generation projects, it is critical for project specific transmission projects to be set up before the commissioning of the plant to enable timely evacuation of power. This adds another scheduling constraint for the project.

From Tresa:

Assumptions

The companies considered The assumptions Model DD SS model

As per the forecast of the Seventeenth Electric Power Survey (EPS), energy demand will increase at a CAGR of 8.4 per cent to 969 billion kWh during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period (2007-2012). Peak demand is projected to register a CAGR of 12.3 per cent to 167,054 MW.

The government has revised the capacity addition target to 78,700 MW from 78,577 MW for the Eleventh Plan. However, in the first 2 years of the Eleventh Plan only 12,716.70 MW of capacity has been added as against the target of 27,396 MW. This is because only 9,263 MW against the target of 16,335 MW was added in 2007-08. In 2008-09, the target fell short by 69 per cent due to delays in the supply of critical components of thermal projects and non-availability of fuel. Therefore, in 2008-09, only 3,453.70 MW was added against the target of 11,061 MW.

Electricity demand forecast

Electric power surveys (methodology) The CEA constitutes a committee every 4-5 years that carries out a comprehensive survey of various consumer segments for estimating the demand for power. The committee publishes the EPS, which provides state-wise demand forecasts, both in terms of energy and peak power requirements, for a 15year period. It also provides a sector-wise estimate of energy demand for a 5-year period. The consumer segments taken into account by the EPS are: Domestic Commercial Agricultural Industrial [low tension (LT) and high tension (HT), separately] Railway traction Public lighting Public waterworks Non-industrial bulk consumers The partial end-use method' has been adopted to estimate the demand for power: In the case of domestic and commercial segments, consumption is estimated on the basis of the number of consumers and their specific consumption (consumption per consumer). Factors such as population, number of households, and extent of electrification of households have been considered to estimate the number of consumers. Time-series analysis is used to forecast the growth in the number of

consumers. Specific consumption is estimated on the basis of previous trends and by making allowances for an increase in the standard of living. For public lighting and waterworks, power requirement is estimated on the basis of the connected load and the average consumption per kW of connected load (kWh per kW). The connected load is estimated on the basis of past trends and the likely increase in these facilities in the future. In the case of irrigation and agriculture, demand is estimated by taking into account the number of pump sets and their average capacity, and the average consumption per kW of connected load per year. In the case of railway traction, demand forecasts are made by estimating the track electrification programme of the Railways. Power requirement of the industrial sector is estimated under three sub-categories: LT industries, HT industries (demand less than 1 MW), and HT industries (demand greater than 1 MW). For the first two categories, demand is projected on the basis of past trends and likely developments in the future. For the third category, demand is estimated on the basis of information provided by each industrial unit about anticipated production levels. The industrial demand that must be met is estimated by taking into account the contribution of captive power. Total energy demand at power stations is calculated by taking an aggregate of the sector-wise forecast, and adding T&D losses. T&D losses are estimated after taking into account the likely changes and improvements in the system. Only changes in technical losses are considered, as a drop in commercial losses (primarily comprising theft and the unauthorised usage of electricity) will be reflected in higher electricity sales, and will not increase the demand for power generation by power stations. Peak demand in a state is computed by applying the average load factor for that state. The load factor for each state differs, depending on the pattern of utilisation of different classes of loads. For instance, if a system feeds continuous process industries such as aluminium, fertilisers and cement, the load factor will be close to 1 (peak load would be close to average load). If there are seasonal or cyclical consumers in the system, the load factor will be low. The load factor is estimated on the basis of past data and anticipated changes in the load mix. Regional peak demand is estimated as the sum of non-coincidental peak demand in individual constituent grids. (As the time of occurrence of peak demand differs across states, the actual peak power requirement of a region will be marginally lower than the sum of the peak demand in individual state grids.) The aggregate national peak demand is computed as the sum of non-coincidental regional peak demand estimates. CEA forecasts (17th EPS) The 17th EPS was published in February 2007. Based on the survey, estimates of growth rates for energy and peak power requirements have been increased vis--vis the forecasts of the previous survey. During the Eleventh Plan period, the 17th EPS estimates demand for energy to increase at a CAGR of 8.4 per cent, as against 6.33 per cent estimated in the 16th EPS. The annual growth in peak demand is also estimated to be higher at 12.3 per cent compared to that of 6.33 per cent in the 16th EPS. According to projections made by the CEA, in the 17th EPS, demand for electricity is likely to surge from 648 billion kWh in 2006-07 to 969 billion kWh in 2011-012. Peak demand is expected to grow from 93,547 MW to 152,746 MW during the same period. CEA estimates are based on inputs from individual SEBs, which, in turn, base their estimates on the responses to detailed questionnaires sent to major consumers, and empirical data on the number of consumers and consumption patterns in each consumer category. Historically, CEA projections have been overestimated, probably because SEBs overstate their requirements to attract higher investments and report lower T&D losses. In addition, SEBs project

optimistic plans for rural electrification (energisation of irrigation pump sets), and the release of new connections.

Energy consumption n GDP correlation Elasticity of electricity consumption with respect to GDP growth Electricity consumption is strongly related to the level of economic activity. However, over the past 25 years the elasticity of electricity consumption vis--vis the gross domestic product (GDP) has been gradually declining. This decline is likely to continue, owing to: An increase in the share of the services sector (about 56 per cent in 2007-08, compared to less than 30 per cent in 1990-91). Efforts by industries to improve energy efficiency (to enhance competitiveness) through more efficient technologies and energy audits. Greater reliance on captive power plants by power-intensive industries due to the high tariffs charged by SEBs and poor quality of grid power. The average annual GDP growth rate (at constant prices) during the Eighth, Ninth and Tenth Plan periods was 5.9 per cent, 5.5 per cent and around 7.7 per cent, respectively. The annual growth in electricity generation during these periods was 7.2 per cent, 5.7 per cent, and 4.4 per cent, respectively. Elasticity of electricity generation with respect to GDP is the percentage change in generation corresponding to a 1 per cent change in GDP. The elasticity of electricity generation (not including captive generation) with respect to GDP has fallen from around 1.47 during the Sixth Plan period to around 0.60 during the Tenth Plan period. This implies that energy usage in the economy has declined, partially due to a rise in the share of the services sector (which is less energy-intensive as compared with the industrial sector) in the GDP and partially due to an improvement in energy efficiency. Read DD management from the State of Industry pdf by cirisil => pg. 23,24

Read different types of power plants from the same pdf => Pg 25 - 50

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MODEL

Step 1: Took 20 major companies (which cover 85% of the announced capacities)

Methodology

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Step 2 (Optional): Chalked out the DD for coal according the fuel requirements , to guage the fuel requirements i) Take Capacity in MW per year ii) Capacity * 5.18 / 100 => mtpa ( Million Tonnes per Annum) coal requirement iii) For Imported Coal => 3.02 mtpa iv) For Gas requirement the factor is 4.48 mmscmd (Million Metric Standard Cubic Meter Per Day) Step 3: Get the supply position i) Domestic supply to be grown @ 8% ii) Imported Coal Supply position ? iii) Gas supply position assuming almost constant o/p (For the tables check the Constraints slides form Tresa)

The cash flow analysis Inputs: Project size (MW) Project cost (Rs. Crore) Debt Equity Assumed PLF Assumed aux comsumption Landed Cost of Coal Coal Required Sales mix (MW) - Tariff based - Cost plus - Variable Cost - Merchant - Untied Realisation from sales (Rs./kwh) - Tariff based - Cost plus - Variable Cost - Merchant - Untied - Weighted avg

Multiply each column to get the WA Proforma P&L a/c (Year 1) Sales in MU = Plant Size in MW*8,76*PLF*(1-Aux Consumption) Sales = Sales in MU * WA Raw material cost = Landed Cost * Coal Req Other operating costs = 11% EBIDTA = Interest cost = Debt @ 8% Depreciation = 5% of Project Cost PBT Tax PAT Cashflow after debt repayment = PAT + DEP Capex ??? Find per unit : RM cost / unit Other operating cost / unit Interest cost / unit Depreciation / unit ROE+tax / unit Total cost / unit Merchant Power : Per unit cost to be arrived as per above calc , the most expensive would be the ones to go out of business incase of Surplus as predicted.

Merchant power

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