Group 12

CONTENT
1 2 3 INTRODUCTION................................ ................................ .......................... - 1 OBJECTIVE OF THE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO ................................ .... - 1 STRATEGIES ................................ ................................ ................................ - 2 3.1 Equity Investments ................................ ................................ ............... - 2 3.2 Foreign Exchange Investments ................................ ............................. - 4 MACROECONOMY ANALYSIS ................................ ................................ . - 5 4.1 UK ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... - 5 4.2 FRANCE ................................ ................................ ............................. - 6 4.3 AUSTRALIA ................................ ................................ ....................... - 7 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS ................................ ................................ ............... - 8 STOCK-PICKING METHODOLOGIES ................................ ..................... - 10 6.1 Fundamental Analysis ................................ ................................ ........ - 10 EXAMPLE 1: EDF ................................ ................................ ..................... - 10 Example 2: BURBERRY ................................ ................................ ............ - 12 6.2 Technical Analysis ................................ ................................ ............. - 14 6.3 Other Strategies Implemented ................................ ............................ - 16 EQUITY MARKET INVESTMENT ................................ ............................ - 17 7.1 STAGE 1 ................................ ................................ ........................... - 17 7.2 STAGE 2 ................................ ................................ ........................... - 18 7.3 Stock Market Investment In Australia................................ ................. - 18 INTERNATIONAL CURRENCIES INVESTEMT ................................ ...... - 19 8.1 Future Currencies Prospects ................................ ............................... - 20 8.2 Strategy of International Currencies Investment ................................ . - 20 8.3 Actual Return of International Currencies Investment......................... - 20 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS ................................ ................................ .... - 21 RECOMMENDATION & SUGGESTION ................................ ............... - 22 10.1 Buy And Hold Strategy ................................ ................................ ... - 22 10.2 Foreign Exchange Trade ................................ ................................ . - 22 10.3 Market Correlation................................ ................................ .......... - 23 10.4 Timing The Market ................................ ................................ ......... - 23 10.5 Forecasting Using The CAPM ................................ ........................ - 24 10.6 Market Test................................ ................................ ..................... - 24 CONCLUSION................................ ................................ ......................... - 24 REFERENCE ................................ ................................ ........................... - 25 APPENDIX ................................ ................................ .............................. - 26 Appendix 1: Calculations of International Currencies Investment ................ - 26 Appendix 2: Correlation ................................ ................................ .............. - 28 Appendix 3: Details of Securities................................ ................................ . - 30 Appendix 4: Particularly Data of Portfolio ................................ ................... - 31 -0-

5 6

9 10

11 12 13

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1 INTRODUCTION
This report presents an investment portfolio by conduct in Finance Education in a Scalable Software Environment (FINESSE) as a role of a fund manager. The strategies corresponding to capitals allocation, international currencies and stock markets investment have been applied to help in assisting investment decisions to form the portfolio; also decisions involving allocation of capital, shares picking and the style of investment have been critically analyzed. Initial forecasting of expected return of the portfolio is attained using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). This initial forecast is compared with the final assessment of portfolio performance of the investment. Finally, the shortcomings of the investment and suggestions for future investment will be presented.

2 OBJECTIVE OF THE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO

An objective is a key direction for any investment portfolio, which can determine the choice and manner of execution of the strategy. Each strategy has a different level of risk associated with it. As a leading role and goal for this investment portfolio, the objective is seeking a consistent return while mitigating the risks involved by diversifying investment of the capital across different currency markets, sectors and countries.

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Group 12

3 STRATEGIES
The nature of the investment is risk neutral. An attempt made to reduce to risk via portfolio diversification and strategies executed in a manner of seeking a stable return for the investment make the investment strategy close to neutral in terms of risk. This investment portfolio allocates 80% (80 million) of the capital for equity market investments, of which one-eighth (11 million) is held without investing, to maintain liquidity in times of need. Out of the 70 million that was allocated for equity investment, capital with different weights were deployed in each of the markets (London, France and Australia), depending on the attractiveness of the investment and the understanding of the macro economic factors affecting the economies at large. Twenty percent (20 million) of the capital was employed for international currency investments and the interest rate gain was the expected source of profit from this investment.

3.1 Equity Investments

In order to reduce the level of the systematic risk in equity investments, the investment of capital was diversified internationally. Dont put all your eggs into a same basket is the idea behind investment diversification. Portfolio diversification can help to minimize the systematic or market risk, therefore, through a wider choice of shares in the portfolio across assets, industries and countries, the risk can be reduced (Cuthbertson, K. & Nitzsche, D., 2008).

The top-down analysis (macro-economic research) and the efficient frontier using the calculation of variances and correlation of the three markets indices indicated that it might be appropriate to invest a major part of the capital in UK and Australian markets (32 million each), only a small weight of the capital investment was to be made in the French market(16million).
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Group 12

A low weight was allocated for investment in the French market was due to a high correlation between the UK and French markets. Risk reduction dictated lower investment due to high correlation. Moreover, the cost of investing in the French market in terms of the commission is relatively higher compared to investing in the UK market (specifically the FTSE 100 index). Further analysis is provided in later sections.

A decision was made to carry out the execution of the investment in two phases. 40 million was allocated for the first phase of the investment. Equity investments were to be made in the ratio of 2:2:1 in the UK, Australian and French markets respectively in the first phase of the investment. The second phase of the next 40million investment was to be made after reassessing the economic situation in each of the markets.

However, changing economic conditions, during the first phase of the investment called for a reallocation of investment weights, to adapt to the uncertainty in the Australian market, caused by interest rate hike in the Chinese market (a major importer of Australian commodities). Hence, in the first phase of the investment, only 8 million was invested in the Australian market as opposed to the initially considered investment of 32 million. This strategy reduced losses in the Australian market.

The broad indexing market portfolio and cross-industry portfolio were considered highly passive strategies and invited high transaction commission. Hence the random selection method was used as a selection tool for stock picking. However, in order to do better than a random selection of shares, except picking shares that are listed in the main indices (FTSE 100, S&D/ASX 200, CAC 40), some of them were chosen out of the main indices, on the basis that they were winner companies or were present in winner industries.
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Group 12

The prospect of current industries is given. Examples of specific stocks have been used to depict the companys future prospects and interpretation of its technical analysis indicators has been carried out in some of the later sections. In addition, the stocks investment style combined active and passive strategy to diversify and maintain the portfolio. Stocks that the group was well acquainted with were chosen for investment. Trading hours also had an impact on the investment strategy. Higher capital was invested in the UK and French markets due to the ease of maintaining the portfolio during day trading hours. Australian market was difficult to maintain since the trading hours began at 1 AM, UK time.

A reserve amount of 9 million was set aside for liquidity, in order to capitalize on unexpected situations, if they occurred. This capital also allowed the investor to buy back specific shares, in the event that their prices decreased or further increase the weight of some shares in the portfolio for stocks that the investor felt confident in.

3.2 Foreign Exchange Investments

The purpose of the other 20% of the total capital keeps as a safe asset. However, in order to make a decision to keep this capital in at a lower risk and make it appreciate at the same time, the strategy decides to invest it into other assets, international currencies. By compare the three countries interest rate, exchange rate, the cost of commission and the future prospect of currencies; it decides to invest the rest of capital in Australia dollars.

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4 MACROECONOMY ANALYSIS
4.1 UK
To take the overview of the UK economic environment, we focus on the performance of the national economy on the basis of some critical factors that could have great influences on the stock market. Table 1 Country GDP Billions US$ GDP Growth Interest Rate Inflation Rate UK 2175 0.80% 0.50% (Traingeconomics,2010) 3.10%

Graph 2

(Tradingeconomics,2010b) We found as the table and graph shows that, the GDP in UK is about 2,175 billion US$; the GDP growth rate is around 8%. That will be as opportunity about investing in UK market. Graph 3

(Tradingeconomics,2010b)
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Group 12 The graph indicated that after January 2009, the increase in the GDP growth rate was accompanied by a simultaneous rise in the stock market index. This indicated that the GDP growth rate and market index have a high synchronization. The present global economic scenario involves a complex currency trade market. Drastic volatility in the relative price movements of currencies and the advent of the currency war has given rise to an uncertain economic situation in the currency trade market. The world is in a situation of excess liquidity. In order to control the inflation rate, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has maintained the interest rate at a lower level. High liquidity can be expected to supply more investment opportunities in the future. In UK the most noteworthy fiscal policy at present is the budgeting cut policy which lead to several social, economic, political problems in Britain. In the long term, the budgeting policy is expected to negatively affect investment in the stock market.

4.2 FRANCE
Table 4
Country France GDP Growth 0.70% Interest Rate 1.00% Inflation Rate 1.40% Unemployment rate 10.00%

(Tradingeconomics,2010) As the official quarterly figures shown by INSEE (National Institute of Statistic and Economics Studies-France), GDP increased at a pace of 0.7% sequentially in the second quarter with the expansion of 0.2% in the first quarter. Having gathered all the relevant economic indicators, the market is expected to have a tendency to grow. According to the monthly index of business activities, GDP is expected to increase by 0.5% in the Q4 of 2010. Although the forecast of the GDP is hard to define the real performance of the stock market, the confidence of the French stock market is still visible.

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Group 12 The Euro Area benchmark interest rate is forced at 1.00% by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank which is considerably a lower level since June 2009 so as to maintain price stability. This is expected to increase the influx of funds into stock market for investment, thereby increasing the liquidity in the French market. Referring to Financial Times (2010), not being denied the problems of excessive budget deficits, weak fiscal rules and a general culture of over-spending for some weaker countries in the European region, France has difficulty that the public debt has grown steadily higher and higher. New pension reforms, which will raise the minimum retirement age to make public sector employees set aside more of their wages for their pensions. However, it was later seen, that the changing policy helped in reducing the fiscal pressure, the trade deficits in France shrank to EUR 4.68 billion in October from EUR 4.98 billion in September.

4.3 AUSTRALIA
Table 5
Country Australia GDP Growth 1.20% Interest Rate 4.75% Inflation Rate 2.80% Unemployment rate 5.10%

(Tradingeconomics,2010) The interest rate in Australia has been at an average of 5.23% over the past decade and the monetary policy in Australia at present is to maintain the level of the interest rate close to that level. The present stable borrowing rate of 4.75 % can be expected to cause a consistent rise in the demand for commodities. The GDP growth rate is 1.20%, much higher than the average GDP growth rate over the past decade of 0.76%. The inflation rate is presently 2.8%, while the average inflation rate over the past decade has been 3.16%, indicating a potential for higher expenditure. Agriculture, Mining, Manufacturing and Service sectors are the major contributors to Australias exports. Commodities such as gold, iron-ore, wheat, wool and energy in the form of liquefied natural gas and coal that form a major part of Australias exports, have a high demand in the global commodity market. New government policies
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Group 12 strongly support the renewable energy sector. The fiscal policy review indicated, the mining sector is booming, as the offshore demand for coking coal and iron ore grows. Demand push inflation and higher interest rates can be expected in future (Business with the Wall Street Journal, 2010).

5 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
We must notice that after the financial crisis, a series of policies and actions had been set up by the government and central bank in order to stimulate the economy, as a result, it provided a huge liquidity within the range of global markets, inflation is unavoidable and this trend pushed the price of commodities to a high level. Moreover, nowadays, there has been no change with the situation of liquidity surplus and probably even worse than before, because most counties have expectation to be even faster growth so as to get out of the recession and it mainly on the basis of devaluing their currency, this is also a hot topic recently which known as Currency War'. Graph 6

As far as concerned, it implies that the expectation of inflation occupy the leading place that will have the great influence on future stock market. So in this portfolio, we are more likely to focus on the industry which being benefit from quantitative easing, such as natural resources sector, aerospace sector and so on.
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Group 12 Table 7
Industry
Financials

Selection of Securities
ABDN.ASSET. MAN. STANDARD CHART BK ST. MODWEN

Weight of Portfolio
16.10%

Oil & Gas

BP KAROON FPO COCHLEAR FPO

14.20%

Health Care

ANSELL FPO BTG SES TEN NET FPO

2.62%

Consumer Services

NATIONAL EXPRESS CFAO KINGFISHER EDF

7.96%

Utilities

NATIONAL GRID AGL ENERGY FPO VEOLIA ENVIRON TABCORP HOLDINGS SAFRAN EADS ZODIAC AEROSPACE SCHNEIDER ELECTR

9.80%

Industrials

LEGRAND GEMALTO VEDANTA RES KAZAKHMYS BHP BLT RPO RIO TINTO FPO

21.99%

Basic Materials Consumer Goods

RANDGOLD RES BRIT.AM.TOBACCO BURBERRY REDROW

4.46% 11.87% 89.00% 11.00% 100.00%

Investment in Securities Reserve of Capital Total Investment

Based on the Level 1 classification of ICB (Industry Classification Benchmark), 32 shares are shown under selection of sectors, alongside with the weighting of the whole portfolio.
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Group 12 Graph 8

Capital weight of stock market investment

11.00% UK market

20.07% 55.11%
13.82%

Australia market France market

Reserve capital

The graph above depi t the asset allocation of stock market in the portfolio investment which shows a major portion of UK market following by France and Australia. The reserve capital stands at 11% in case to avoid investment flaw.

6 ST

G MET

L GIES

6.1 Fundamental Anal i EXAMPLE 1: E F

The buy and hold portfolio management style was implemented for investments in the French market. Under the buy and hold style, it is believed that latching onto good businesses and allowing the asset to grow with the business The tools of fundamental . analysis were used to assist in the investment decisions, specifically as indicators of what stocks could be considered for investment. Here, EDF (Electricit de France), traded in the French market, is used as a sample, to indicate the fundamental analysis involved in helping the investment decision. Two
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Group 12 main issues were considered for the analysis: Firstly, the financial statements and health of the business; Secondly, the management and competitive advantages of the firm over other firms operating in the same sector. Apart from using the fundamental analysis indicators, historical performance of the stock within the market was taken into consideration as an added indicator to assist in investment decisions. The performance of the CAC Utilities has been considerably well over 1 month, 3 month and 6 month period, with 3.08%, 5.91% and 3.97% rate of growth respectively, which did lead EDF to a degree of growth. As classified under the CAC Utilities, EDF has increased by 7.97% in price during last month, which made it a place of highest risers in terms of the price movement in the CAC 40 list. Even for a longer term observation, the historical performance CAC 40 index during the last 3 months, the upward trend was steady and thus we can believe that it will continue to last for a certain period to cover our investment return. In terms of the health of EDF, the most recent financial statements results exposed by official website show that the net income has increased 1.5%, and 4.4% of EBITDA growth. More importantly, EDF has finalised the transfer of its British electricity distribution networks to the Cheung Kong Group (CKI), for an equity value of 3.2 billion (EUR3.7 billion). This transaction will result in debt reduction of approximately EUR6.7 billion* for the EDF Group, thereby exceeding its financial debt reduction target of EUR5 billion, announced in February 2009. In September, the company launched a 40-year bond issue in sterling pound, which is the longest maturity ever achieved by EDF and the largest issue by a corporate in sterling pound with such a maturity ever. It is part of the financial policy initiated by EDF with a view to lengthening the average maturity of the Groups gross debt. As for the business advantages, EDF is the worlds largest utility company with 66.34 billion in revenues in 2009 and the largest generator of electricity of France. Weighted

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Group 12 1.33% of CAC 40 and 16.42% of CAC Utilities composition, the market share of the company is considered to be exceptionally competitive.

Graph 9: Performance of EDF comparing with CAC 40

Data obtained from Yahoo Finance on 18th Nov. 2010

The above figure depicts the performance of EDF during the investment period. It outperformed the French market over the last month and it has increased by 7.97% in price, during the investment period, which made it one of the highest risers in terms of the price movement in the CAC 40 list. This indicates why it composes a major part of the portfolio of French Market.

Example 2: BURBERRY
Some of the investments made were chosen on the basis of the fundamental concept of the Price to earnings ratio. The price to earnings ratio is the ratio of the price per share to the annual earnings per share. Although beta is an indicator of risk, it wasnt used as a stand- alone indicator for assisting in the investment decision. The P/E gives a fair assessment of the pricing of the share and the risk involved in the investment. The P/E ratio can be classified into three categories that indicate how the share is priced and the market expectations for that share. The three levels are:

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Group 12 The Highest level: If the P/E ratio of the company is above 25, it may indicate that the share is pricy. It may also indicate that the expected earnings from that firm are much higher in the future which might be the cause for driving up the price.

The Lowest level: The P/E ratio of below ten, zero or negative could indicate that the share is undervalued or that the future earnings of the company are expected to decline,

The Medium Level: If the P/E ratio of the company is between 17 and 25, it might indicate that the share is overpriced or that the firms earnings have increased since it was last valued. A consistent increase in the firms earnings might lead to a higher expectation of future earnings from the firm, explaining the hike in the price (INVESTOPEDIA.COM, 2010). The P/E ratio can be considered as a good indicator of the price trend of the company for long term investment. A higher P/E can to a large extent imply that the expected earnings are high. For example, in the UK market, Burberry Group plc has a P/E of 42.38. It has one of the highest prices to earnings ratio in the consumer cyclical. Moreover, the EPS of Burberry is 0.24 and the share price is keeping around 1,000 pence per share. Based on the high P/E ratio and the share price trend in the last two month, we believed that the share price of Burberry Group plc will continue to increase in October and November. The Price to earnings ratio was also used as one of the indicators in assisting investment in shares such as BP and BTG in the London stock exchange. Particularly, in the case of BP, the share price of BP has been decreasing consistently, following the oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico on 4th may 2010. The P/E ratio of BP remains unpublished, indicating a probable low P: E ratio caused by its downward share price movement. The share price at the time of investment was assumed to be undervalued,
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Group 12 leading to a consistent investment in BP shares, which formed a major part of our investment portfolio. The formula of P/E ratio is P/E ratio= price per share/ annual earnings per share.

6.2 Technical Analysis

E AMPLE OF BP
The short trading duration, limited to a period of one and a half months, necessitated the use of a strategy suitable for the same. Strategies suggested by technical analysis have proven suitable for such trades. Hence some of these strategies were implemented in assisting several investment decisions. Technical analysis, in accordance with the Efficient Market Theory, has its drawbacks in judging the share price growth. However, it serves as a dependent tool in making short term trading decisions of buy or sell. The key to sound investment lies in understanding what stocks to buy and the timing of the investment decision. Fundamental analysis, as explained in the previous section can be used as an indicator of what stocks to buy. Technical analysis on the other hand can be used as an indicator to assist in the timing of the buy or sell decision. In extension, technical analysis serves as an effective tool in picking shares and judging the timing of the buy in a short-term investment. Some of the strategies implemented included momentum trade and moving average along with the trading volume as an assisting indicator. (Efficient Market Hypothesis) The uncertainty of technical analysis should be considered very carefully.

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Group 12 Graph 10 Daily moving average regarding BP from 7th October to 16th November (LSE)

Graph 11 Weekly moving average regarding BP from 7th October to 16th November (LSE)

Take BP as an example. The moving average indicator was used to assist the timing of the investment decision. Moving average indicators with different time periods were used as benchmarks, leading to a co-ordinated investment action. The periods of the benchmark moving averages varied from 5 day moving average, 20 day moving average and 60 day moving averages so as to assist in seeking investment opportunities. The weekly moving average was also considered to gain further information on the timing of the investment.

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Group 12 2,000 shares of BP were bought at 436.95p on 7th October, 2010 in order to test the market before formally beginning investment, since the weekly chart and daily chart implied that the closing price as on that day was higher than the 5 days MA. The same strategy was also used on 13th October 2010. 8,000 shares of BP were bought at 436.6p in expectations of an upward market movement. However, the share price fell due to the high unpredicted volatility in the UK stock market, that week. BP gained technical support from the 20 days MA on 15th October. As opposed to our expectation, the price continued to fall until it eventually gain the support from 60 days MA on 27th October, which provided a stronger support compared to the 5 days MA as well the 20 days MA. On 29th October, after group discussion, the decision to buy more shares was made. 1,530,000 shares of BP were bought at an average price of 425.36p per share. The share price of BP began to increase consistently and eventually became profitable. This was followed by one more buy decision on 3rd November. The stock price consistently remained above the 5 days MA as well as the 20 days MA until 11th November. It must be pointed out that due to lack of monitoring, on 12th November the opportunity to sell BP was lost, when it closed lower than the 5 days

MA at that time.

6.3 Other Strategies Implemented

Momentum strategy was implemented for certain investments such as Cochlear FPO in ASX, ABDN ASSET.MAN and KINGFISHER in LSE and SAFRAN in France. Indicators such as volume of trade and volatility factors were taken into consideration before investing. For example, VEDANTA RES, LSE was bought to capitalize on its high volatility and volume of trades.

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Group 12

7 EQ IT MARKET INVESTMENT
There are two stages of the stock markets investment:

7.1 STAGE 1
Graph 12

The Daily Average Yiled Curve

3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% 4/10

FTSE 100 ASX 200

9/10

14/10

19/10 24/10 29/10

3/11

8/11

13/11 18/11 23/11

(The detail data in Appendi 2) Table 13 Trade information of Stage 1 (GB ) Trade Value Close Value Gain / Loss
10,054,788 8,731,539 10186670 8799777 131,882 68,238

Countries
UK FR

Return Rate
1.31% 0.78%

* For detailed calculation, (Appendi 2&3) The comparison between Market Return and Return of our portfolio: 1. In UK market, the result of UK market return during stage one is 0.77%; the actual return of our investment is 1.31%. Hence, our actual return rate is higher than the market return, indicating that our portfolio was successful in stage one at UK market. 2. In the French market, the market return in stage one is 2.14%; however, the return on investment of our portfolio was 0.78%. Thus, in French market our investment in stage one was not as good as the markets return.

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Group 12 Table 14 Trade information of Stage 2 (GBP) Trade Value Close Value Gain / Loss
46,696,855 18,786,327 46,584,380 18,866,706 112,475 -80,379

Countries
UK FR

Return Rate
0.31% -0.50%

* For detailed calculation, see Appendix 2&3

7.2 STAGE 2
The stage 2 of the stocks investment is adjusted by the strategy in response to the changing environment. 1. UK market: During stage two, the market was going down. The market return in this period was -0.33%; however the investment return rate of our portfolio remained higher than market return at 0.31%. 2. In the French market, the situation remained similar to the UK market. The market return fell to -1.65%; our investment return fell to -0.50%, in line with the trend of decreasing returns. During this period, although our investment return was higher than the market return, it still led to some losses.

7.3 Stock Market Investment In Australia

Table 15 Total trade information of stock investment in Australia (GBP) Countries Trade Value Close Value Gain / Loss Return Rate
AUS 8,196,110 8,013,785 -182,325 -2.22%

* For detailed calculation, see Appendix 3&4 In Australia Market, irrespective of the periods of stage one and two, high uncertainty in the market led to a downward movement of the market. The market return from the two investment phases were -0.12% and -1.40% respectively. The investment return rate of our portfolio in the two phases was -2.22% on average, lower than the average market return of -0.81%. Since our investment in the Australian market was not in large amounts, the losses in Australia are acceptable.

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Group 12

8 INTERNATIONAL CURRENCIES INVESTEMT

The 20% of the total capital for a low risk investment is putting in the currency investment. In order to select the best currencies to invest, it have to compare UK, Australia and Frances interest rates and consider the future prospect of exchange rate and the cost of commission between sterling and the other two currencies. Table 16
The interest rates of GBP, AUD and EUR Currency GBP AUD EUR Annual Interest Rate (%) 0.5 3.75 0.25 (Data collected from FINESSE on 15th Oct 2010) Daily Interest Rate (%) 0.001 0.011 0

Table 17
The exchange rates of GBP, AUD and EUR on 15th October 2010 Currency Change GBP AUD EUR From GBP 1.6095 1.1374 From AUD 0.6210 0.7063 From EUR 0.8787 1.4142 -

(Data collected from FINESSE on 15th Oct 2010)

The formula uses for analysis of comparative international currencies investment are as follow:

FVt ! A 0 (1  i uk ) t
Foreign_FV1 = ( ER 0 )(A 0 )(1  i % ) t EUR e
ER
t

By using the data from the Table16 and Table17 and assume the exchange rates keep in the same level, the expected value of the investment for 30 days can be calculated and show as follow:
Table 18 Expected value of investment in GBP, AUD and EUR for 30 days
Currencies Value of investment GBP 20,006,000 AUD 20,056,062 EUR 19,991,666

* Commission Cost: 0.1%, 40,000 (20,000,000 *0.1% = 20,000 for each change) * The details of calculation is showed in the Appendix 1
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Group 12 The Table 18 indicates that it is positive value of invest in Australia dollar, which make 10,062 profit after the transaction cost; and it is underinvestment by putting the money in France market.

8.1 Future Currencies Prospects

Also the currently show an advantage for invest in Australia dollar, it also need to consider the future prospects of GBP, AUD and EUR. As the analysis forecast, the value of the Australia dollar tends to reflect the faster growth of Australia economy and expected to further growth (CRIENGLISH.COM, 2009). However, the currencies of GBP and EUR are not expected to appreciation.

8.2 Strategy of International Currencies Investment

By comparing the expected value of the currencies investment in 30 days, obviously, invest in Australia dollar is the most valuable investment. Although the commission cost 40,000 accounts a larger proportion of the return, it is worth to keep the money in a Australia dollar rather than switch it frequently to others. Therefore, the decision is to put the 20% of capital in the Australia dollar investment with 1 month.

8.3 Actual Return of International Currencies Investment

Table 19 The exchange rate of GBP, AUD and EUR on 15th November 2010
Currency Change GBP AUD EUR From GBP 1.6228 1.1725 From AUD 0.6108 0.7224 From EUR 0.8526 1.3839 -

(Data collected from FINESSE on 15th Nov 2010)

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Group 12
Table 20
Actual value of currencies investment in GBP, AUD and EUR for 30 days Currencies Value of investment GBP 20,006,000 AUD 19,728,111 EUR 19,397,853

* Commission Cost: 0.1%, 40,000 (20,000,000 *0.1% = 20,000 for each change) * The details of calculation is showed in the Appendix

Table 19 is the updated data of the three currencies at the end date of the investment date (15th Nov), by using this information the actual return of the currency investment can be calculated and show in Table 20. Compare the actual exchange rate to the expected one, Australia dollar does not appreciate as forecast, even it become an underinvestment decision by investing in it. This investment only worth 19,728,111 today and it makes 317,889 loss for the 20% of the total capital international currencies investment.

9 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Before carrying out investments in the equity market, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) was used, to evaluate the total expected return of 8.84% for a capital investment of 80 million. (See Appendix 2&3) Table 21 Final performance of the investment portfolio (GBP) Countries Trade Value Close Value Gain / Loss Return Rate
UK FR AUS Australia dollar 46,696,855 16,058,927 8,196,110 20,000,000 46,716,188 15,978,548 8,013,785 19,682,111 19,333 -80,379 -182,325 0.04% -0.50% -2.22% -1.59%

-317,889

* For detailed calculation, see Appendix 3&4 The final performance of our investment portfolio is depicted in the table above; the return on capital invested is 0.04% in the UK equity, is -0.50% in French equity, -2.22% in Australian equity and -1.59% for Australia dollar (foreign exchange trade). On the whole, we had some loss in our portfolio.
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Group 12 The trading period of the investment was very short. The trade period (first week of October to 19th November), was characterised by changes in the economic environment, notably in the Australian market and the world economy in general. These changes may not be a direct reflection of the medium and long term direction that the market might take. More details are shown in investment analysis and recommendations. We are confident of achieving the forecasted return in the long term.

10 RECOMMENDATION & SUGGESTION

10.1 Buy And Hold Strategy
The investment strategy for this portfolio was largely based on the buy and hold policy. Losses in certain shares, such as CFAO in France, Redrow in UK and AGL Energy in the Australian market could have been avoided. Although the fundamentals of the above mentioned shares indicated a BUY SIGNAL, for the long term, technical analysis should have been used as stronger indicator to suggest the timing of the BUY decision. Holding shares, even when their share price increased substantially, led to unrealised profits from such investments. This followed by market corrections caused a loss of profits due to the HOLD strategy.

10.2 Foreign Exchange Trade

Investing in Australian dollar was made in expectation of a high volatility in the movement of the currency rate. Although, the market moved in the direction of our

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Group 12 predicted movement, the profits made were insufficient to cover the cost of transaction and the commission costs involved during the investment period. Investment in currency indicated an inbuilt high risk involved. If the currency market moved in line with our expectations, the profit couldnt cover for the transaction cost, unless there was very high volatility. If the market moved in the direction opposite to our expectations, the losses realised would be the transaction cost and the loss of currency in absolute terms. This indicated that investment in the currency market must be made only in high volatility situations and in large amounts, large enough to cover the transaction cost when profits are realized.

10.3 Market Correlation

Initial analysis of correlations results showed that the UK and Australian markets have a lower correlation than the correlation between the UK and French markets. Investing in the UK and Australian markets equally was the initial decision, in order to mitigate risks. However, insufficient understanding of the Australian market, unfavourable trading hours and changing economic environment in Australia increased the risk of the portfolio.

10.4 Timing The Market

Since equity investments were made in two stages, full utilization of the available capital was not made, leading to lower profits. Moreover, the reserve amount, held with the intention of maintaining liquidity in times of need was not utilized. Due to low UK interest rates, the earnings on the reserve money were low and not used fruitfully toward profit generation.

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10.5 Forecasting Using The CAPM

The expected return on investment was calculated using the CAPM model. The period selected for the forecast was 2009-10. This period is representative of the markets movement, out of the recession period. Since the stock market is a lead indicator for future movement of shares, it reflects high returns for the considered period 2009-10. Evaluating short-term returns based on this data, would indicate very high expected returns, which might be correct in predicting the long term stock movement but might be incorrect in predicting short-term expectations.

10.6 Market Test

Initially, a small capital of approximately 1 million was invested to test the market movement. In case of share without high volatility, it was impossible to cover transaction costs, even if the shares made profit.

11 CONCLUSION
Investment was carried out after analyzing economic conditions prevailing in all the markets considered for investment. Strategies for investment were pre decided and a definite path for the investment was laid out. Changing economic conditions were factored in and certain changes to strategy were made in due course, since adapting to change is the key to sound investment. Performance analysis of the portfolio enabled a better understanding of the upsides and downsides of the investment strategies implemented. Considerations for the future as mentioned in the previous section, summarizes the learning gathered from this investment.

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12 REFERENCE
Cutgbertson, K. & Nitzsche, D., (2008), Investments, 2nd edition, John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Financial Times, 2010. Frances fiscal troubles weaken case against German austerity [Online] Available at: <http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2010/06/frances-fiscal-troubles-weaken-case-agains t-german-austerity/> [Assessed 17 November 2010]. National Institute of Statistics and Economics, 2010. Quarterly National Accounts [Online] Available at: <http://investors.edf.com/the-edf-group/edf-investors-117002.html> [Assessed 12 November 2010]. Yahoo Finance, 2010. One month comparison between EDF CAC 40. [image online] Available at: <http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=6m;compar e=;indicator=;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source= undefined> [Assessed 18 November 2010] Tradingeconomics,2010. [online] (Updated 06 Oct 2010) gh<http://www.tradingeconomics.com> [Accessed 19 Nov 2010]. Available at:

Tradingeconomics,2010b. United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate. [online] (Updated 06 Oct 2010) Available at: <http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?symbol=GBP> [Accessed 19 Nov 2010].
INVESTOPEDIA . COM ,

2010. Price-Earnings Ratio Investopedia Retrieved (Hitting the

headlines article) [online] (Updated 08 Jun 2010) Available at: <http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp> [Accessed 19 Oct 2010]. Business with the Wall Street Journal, 2010. Review fiscal policy settings, RBA's McKibbin tells Canberra. [online] (Updated 13 Oct 2010) Available at: <http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/review-fiscal-policy-settings-rbas -mckibbin-tells-canberra/story-e6frg926-1225938227457> [Accessed 22 Nov 2010]. CRIENGLISH.COM, 2009. Australian Dollar Reflects Strong Economy: Treasurer (Hitting the headlines article) [online] (Updated 04 ct 2010) Available at: <http://english.cri.cn/6826/2010/10/09/1461s598436.htm> [Accessed 07 Oct 2010].
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13 APPENDI
Appendix 1: Calculations of International Currencies Investment
Assumption of invest in Sterling: A0 = 20,000,000; i = 0.001%; One year investment: FV()=20,000,000 * (1+0.5%) = 20,100,000 30 days investment: FV()=20,000,000 * (1+ 0.001%)30 = 20,006,000 t= 30 days

Transaction cost of currency change: 0.1% 20,000,000 *0.1% = 20,000 If we change the currency from GBP to AUD for investment and the change it back when close the investment, the transaction cost should be double, hence, 40,000.

In Australia dollar: A0(AUD) = 20,000,000 * 1.6095 =$32,190,000 Expected value One year investment: FV($)=32,190,000 * (1+3.75%) =$33,400,000 30 days investment: $32,190,000 * (1+0.011%)30 =$32,296,397 Value in GBP: $32,296,397 *0.6210 = 20,056,062 The final profit of invest in AUD after the transaction cost is 10,062

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Group 12 Actual value Value in GBP: $32,296,397 *0.6108 = 19,728,111 The final profit of invest in AUD after the transaction cost is ( 317,889)

In France: A0(EUR) = 1.1374 * 20,000,000 = 22,748,000 Expected value One year investment: 22,748,000 * (1 + 0.25%) =22,804,870 30 days investment: 22,748,000 * (1+ 0.0005%) 30 = 22,751,412 Value in GBP: 22,751,412 * 0.8787 = 19,991,666 The final profit of invest in EUR after the transaction cost is 54,334

Actual value Value in GBP: 22,751,412 * 0.8526 = 19,397,853 The final profit of invest in EUR after the transaction cost is ( 648,147)

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Appendix 2: Correlation

FTSE100
Date
10-11-1 10-10-1 10-9-1 10-8-2 10-7-1 10-6-1 10-5-4 10-4-1 10-3-1 10-2-1 10-1-4 09-12-1 09-11-2 09-10-1 09-9-1 09-8-3 09-7-1 09-6-1 09-5-1 09-4-1 09-3-2 09-2-2 09-1-2 08-12-1 08-11-3 08-10-1 08-9-1 08-8-1 08-7-1 08-6-2 08-5-1 08-4-1 08-3-3 08-2-1 08-1-2

AS 200
Return
0.34% 2.26% 6.01% -0.63% 6.71% -5.37% -6.80% -2.25% 5.89% 3.15% -4.23% 4.19% 2.86% -1.76% 4.48% 6.32% 8.11% -3.89% 4.02% 7.78% 2.48% -8.01% -6.63% 3.35% -2.06% -11.33% -13.95% 4.07% -3.88% -7.33% -0.56% 6.54% -3.15% 0.08% -9.36% 100.34% 102.26% 106.01% 99.37% 106.71% 94.63% 93.20% 97.75% 105.89% 103.15% 95.77% 104.19% 102.86% 98.24% 104.48% 106.32% 108.11% 96.11% 104.02% 107.78% 102.48% 91.99% 93.37% 103.35% 97.94% 88.67% 86.05% 104.07% 96.12% 92.67% 99.44% 106.54% 96.85% 100.08% 90.64%

CAC40
Return
0.79% 1.70% 3.98% -2.01% 4.37% -2.94% -8.18% -1.41% 5.00% 1.48% -6.38% 3.54% 1.25% -2.14% 5.74% 5.39% 7.06% 3.52% 0.99% 5.39% 6.86% -5.70% -5.00% -0.54% -7.10% -13.54% -11.00% 3.13% -4.67% -8.09% 1.05% 4.38% -3.96% -1.39% -11.51% 100.79% 101.70% 103.98% 97.99% 104.37% 97.06% 91.82% 98.59% 105.00% 101.48% 93.62% 103.54% 101.25% 97.86% 105.74% 105.39% 107.06% 103.52% 100.99% 105.39% 106.86% 94.30% 95.00% 99.46% 92.90% 86.46% 89.00% 103.13% 95.33% 91.91% 101.05% 104.38% 96.04% 98.61% 88.49%

Adj Close
5694.6 5675.2 5548.6 5225.2 5258 4916.9 5188.4 5553.3 5679.6 5354.5 5188.5 5412.9 5190.7 5044.5 5133.9 4908.9 4608.4 4249.2 4417.9 4243.7 3926.1 3830.1 4149.6 4434.2 4288 4377.3 4902.5 5636.6 5411.9 5625.9 6053.5 6087.3 5702.1 5884.3 5879.8

Adj Close
4698.5 4661.6 4582.9 4404.2 4493.5 4301.5 4429.7 4807.4 4875.5 4637.7 4569.6 4870.6 4701.4 4643.2 4743.6 4479.1 4244 3954.9 3818 3780.5 3582.1 3344.5 3540.7 3722.3 3742.5 4018 4600.5 5135.6 4977.4 5215.3 5654.7 5595.4 5355.7 5572.1 5650.3

Adj Close
3841.11 3833.5 3715.18 3490.79 3643.14 3442.89 3507.56 3816.99 3974.01 3708.8 3739.46 3936.33 3680.15 3607.69 3795.41 3653.54 3426.27 3140.44 3277.65 3159.85 2807.34 2702.48 2973.92 3217.97 3262.68 3487.07 4032.1 4482.6 4392.36 4434.85 5014.28 4996.54 4707.07 4790.66 4869.79

Return
0.20% 3.14% 6.23% -4.27% 5.65% -1.86% -8.45% -4.03% 6.91% -0.82% -5.13% 6.73% 1.99% -5.07% 3.81% 6.42% 8.71% -4.28% 3.66% 11.83% 3.81% -9.57% -7.89% -1.38% -6.65% -14.52% -10.59% 2.03% -0.96% -12.28% 0.35% 5.97% -1.76% -1.64% -14.22% 100.20% 103.14% 106.23% 95.73% 105.65% 98.14% 91.55% 95.97% 106.91% 99.18% 94.87% 106.73% 101.99% 94.93% 103.81% 106.42% 108.71% 95.72% 103.66% 111.83% 103.81% 90.43% 92.11% 98.62% 93.35% 85.48% 89.41% 102.03% 99.04% 87.72% 100.35% 105.97% 98.24% 98.36% 85.78%

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FTSE100
Date
07-12-3 07-11-1 07-10-1 07-9-3 07-8-1 07-7-2 07-6-1 07-5-1 07-4-2 07-3-1 07-2-1 07-1-2 06-12-1 06-11-1 06-10-2 06-9-1 06-8-1 06-7-3 06-6-1 06-5-2 06-4-3 06-3-1 06-2-1 06-1-3 05-12-1 05-11-1 05-10-3

AS 200
Return
0.38% -4.40% 3.86% 2.56% -0.90% -3.82% -0.20% 2.64% 2.21% 2.19% -0.51% -0.28% 2.80% -1.32% 2.79% 0.92% -0.38% 1.61% 1.90% -5.10% 0.98% 2.95% 0.54% 2.49% 3.54% 1.97% N/A 100.38% 95.60% 103.86% 102.56% 99.10% 96.18% 99.80% 102.64% 102.21% 102.19% 99.49% 99.72% 102.80% 98.68% 102.79% 100.92% 99.62% 101.61% 101.90% 94.90% 100.98% 102.95% 100.54% 102.49% 103.54% 101.97%

Adj Close
6456.9 6432.5 6721.6 6466.8 6303.3 6360.1 6607.9 6621.4 6449.2 6308 6171.5 6203.1 6220.8 6048.8 6129.2 5960.8 5906.1 5928.3 5833.4 5723.8 6023.1 5964.6 5791.5 5760.3 5618.8 5423.2 5317.3

Adj Close
6339.8 6533.1 6754.1 6567.8 6247.2 6144.2 6274.9 6313.5 6166 5995 5832.5 5773.4 5669.9 5482.1 5384.4 5154.1 5115.4 4986 5073.9 5001.7 5258.8 5129.7 4921.3 4929.6 4763.4 4634.8 4459.7

Correlation UK and AUS 0.8919

Correlation UK and FR 0.9233

CAC40
Return
-3.00% -3.33% 2.80% 5.00% 1.66% -2.10% -0.61% 2.36% 2.81% 2.75% 1.02% 1.81% 3.37% 1.80% 4.37% 0.75% 2.56% -1.75% 1.43% -5.01% 2.49% 4.15% -0.17% 3.43% 2.74% 3.85% N/A 97.00% 96.67% 102.80% 105.00% 101.66% 97.90% 99.39% 102.36% 102.81% 102.75% 101.02% 101.81% 103.37% 101.80% 104.37% 100.75% 102.56% 98.25% 101.43% 94.99% 102.49% 104.15% 99.83% 103.43% 102.74% 103.85%

Adj Close
5614.08 5670.57 5847.95 5733.37 5662.7 5751.08 6054.93 6104 5960.04 5634.16 5516.32 5608.31 5541.76 5327.64 5348.73 5250.01 5165.04 5009.42 4965.96 4930.18 5188.4 5220.85 5000.45 4947.99 4715.23 4567.41 4436.45

Return
-1.00% -3.08% 1.98% 1.24% -1.55% -5.15% -0.81% 2.39% 5.62% 2.11% -1.65% 1.19% 3.94% -0.40% 1.86% 1.63% 3.06% 0.87% 0.72% -5.10% -0.62% 4.31% 1.05% 4.82% 3.19% 2.91% N/A 99.00% 96.92% 101.98% 101.24% 98.45% 94.85% 99.19% 102.39% 105.62% 102.11% 98.35% 101.19% 103.94% 99.60% 101.86% 101.63% 103.06% 100.87% 100.72% 94.90% 99.38% 104.31% 101.05% 104.82% 103.19% 102.91%

Correlation AUS and FR 0.9033

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Group 12

Appendix 3: Details of Securities

Industry Financials Security ABDN.ASSET. MAN. STANDARD CHART BK ST. MODWEN Oil & Gas Health Care BP KAROON FPO. COCHLEAR FPO ANSELL FPO BTG Consumers Services SES TEN NET FPO NATIONAL EXPRESS CFAO KINGFISHER Utilities EDF NATIONAL GRID AGL ENERGY FPO VEOLIA ENVIRON Industrials TABCORP HOLDINGS SAFRAN EADS ZODIAC AEROSPACE SCHNEIDER ELECTR LEGRAND GEMALTO VEDANTA RES KAZAKHMYS BHP BLT RPO RIO TINTO FPO Basic Materials Consumer Goods RANDGOLD RES BRIT.AM.TOBACCO BURBERRY REDROW Index Type FTSE 250 FTSE 100 FTSE 250 FTSE 100 S&P/ASX 200 S&P/ASX 200 S&P/ASX 200 FTSE ALL CAC Next 20 S&P/ASX 200 FTSE 250 CAC Mid 100 FTSE 100 CAC 40 FTSE 100 S&P/ASX 200 CAC 40 S&P/ASX 200 CAC Next 20 CAC 40 CAC Mid 100 CAC 40 CAC Next 20 CAC Next 20 S&P/ASX 200 FTSE 100 S&P/ASX 200 S&P/ASX 200 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 250 Total Weight of Portfolio 1.98% 11.16% 2.96% 14.12% 0.08% 0.06% 2.50% 0.06% 1.63% 0.12% 1.78% 2.54% 1.89% 2.53% 2.92% 2.48% 1.87% 2.50% 2.27% 1.25% 2.86% 1.25% 2.00% 1.87% 3.26% 1.91% 0.32% 2.50% 4.46% 6.24% 1.27% 4.36% 89.00%

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Appendix 4: Particularly Data of Portfolio

Stage 1 stocks investment in UK and France markets
UK

Security ABDN.ASSET.MAN.
BP NATIONAL GRID NATIONAL EXPRESS BTG

Trade value 1,532,700

4,721,188 2,312,000 1,443,600 45,300

Open price 170

437 578 241 227

Close price 176.15

435.62 584.25 237.05 251

Close Value 1,585,350

4,791,820 2,337,000 1,422,300 50,200

Gain/loss 52,650
70,632 25,000 -21,300 4,900

Return rate 3.44%

1.50% 1.08% -1.48% 10.82%

Total Trade Value

10,054,788

10,186,670

131,882 Average Re. Gain/loss 57,653 45,359

-62,620 37,948 -10,102

1.31% Return rate 2.85% 2.50%

-6.24% 1.66% -0.63%

FR

Security EDF SAFRAN

SCHNEIDER ELECTR ZODIAC AEROSPACE LEGRAND

Trade value 2,022,633 1,815,498

1,003,120 2,287,106 1,603,182

Open price 31.56 21.35

102.4 50.09 27.44

Close price 32.36 21.71

102.6 51.06 27.45

Close Value 2,080,286 1,860,857

940,500 2,325,054 1,593,080

Total Trade Value

8,731,539

8,799,777

68,238 Average Return 0.78%

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Group 12

Stage 2 stocks investment in UK market

UK

Security BRIT AM TOBACCO BURBERRY GRP VEDANTA RES RANDGOLD RES. ABDN.ASSET.MAN.
STANDRD CHART BK KAZAKHMYS BP REDROW KINGFISHER ST.MODWEN NATIONAL GRID NATIONAL EXPRESS BTG(CLOSE)

Final Value of S1 0 0 0 0 1,585,350

0 0 4,791,820 0 0 0 2,337,000 1,422,300 45,300

Total Trade Value 4,995,900 1,008,500 2,610,250 3,566,500 1,585,350

8,930,480 1,529,000 11,299,875 3,484,400 1,514,880 2,367,120 2,337,000 1,422,300 45,300

Open price 2,362.75 1,007.50 2,178 5,967.50 176.15

1,814.50 1,425.50 435.62 99.53 239.65 176.7 584.25 237.05 /

Close price 2,363 1,007 2,177 5,965 176

1,814 1,425 436 100 240 176 584 237 /

Close Value 4,962,300 1,007,000 2,721,250 3,579,000 1,584,000

8,997,440 1,567,500 11,466,800 3,100,000 1,536,000 2,479,840 2,336,000 1,422,000 50,200

Gain/loss -33,600 -1,500 111,000 12,500 -1,350

66,960 38,500 166,925 -384,400 21,120 112,720 -1,000 -300 4,900

Return rate -0.67% -0.15% 4.25% 0.35% -0.09%

0.75% 2.52% 1.48% -11.03% 1.39% 4.76% -0.04% -0.02% 0.00%

Stage2 Trade Value Total Trade Value

36,515,085 46,696,855

112,475 Average Return

0.31%

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Group 12

Stage 2 stocks investment in France market

FR

Security
EDF SAFRAN SCHNEIDER ELECTR ZODIAC AEROSPACE LEGRAND CFAO SES VEOLIA ENVIRON EADS GEMALTO

Trade value Stage 1

2,080,286 1,860,857 1,007,678 2,325,054 1,593,080

Total Trade Value

2,022,633 1,815,498 1,003,120 2,287,106 1,603,182 2,031,923 1,302,604 1,495,514 1,003,302 1,494,045

Open price
32.36 21.71 102.6 51.06 27.45 33.07 18.55 20.91 18.59 32.74

Close price
33.27 21.43 102.75 52.6 28.73 30.34 18.16 21.67 17.27 30.99

Close Value
2,125,313 1,825,286 1,005,723 2,380,090 1,660,035 1,886,479 1,288,972 1,565,862 944,790 1,431,834

Gain/loss
45,027 -35,571 -1,955 55,036 66,955 -145,444 -13,632 70,348 -58,512 -62211.08997

Return rate
2.81% -1.29% 0.15% 3.02% 4.66% -6.57% -0.42% 5.37% -5.23% -3.56%

0 0 0 0 0

Stage2 Trade Value Total Trade Value

7,327,388 16,058,927

80,379 Average Return

0.50%

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Group 12

Total stocks investment in Australia market

Total

AUS

Security ANSELL FPO RIO TINTO FPO

AGL ENERGY FPO TABCORP HOLDINGS TEN NET FPO KAROON FPO COCHLEAR FPO BHP BLT RPO
Total

Total Trade Value 1,997,338 2,001,284

1,987,296 2,000,302 98,399 66,807 44,684 259,134

Open price 13.47 84.14

16.72 7.14 1.57 10.66 71.3 41.346

Close price 13.51 83.84

15.8 7.09 1.55 8.33 71.18 43.6

Close Value 1,988,110 1,979,082

1,863,675 1,971,281 97,883 52,604 44,950 275,334

Gain/loss -9,228 -22,202

-123,621 -29,021 -517 -14,203 266 16,200

Return rate
-0.46% -1.11% -6.22% -1.45% -0.52% -21.26% 0.60% 6.25% 2.22%

8,196,110

8272919.019

182,325

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