The Economic History of Britain since 1870 Reading list

Lecture 1: Introduction and Britain in the international economy at the end of the Industrial Revolution.
A conventional (although somewhat old and Marxist) broad overview of the British Victorian economy as the, perhaps fading, workshop of the world can be gleaned from 1. Hobsbawm, Eric J. [1969]; Industry and Empire, Chapters 6 Industrialization: the second phase and Chapter 7 Britain in the world economy, pp. 109-153.

On the other hand, 2. Crafts, Nicholas [2003]; Long-run growth, Chapter 1 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume II: Economic Maturity, 1860-1939, pp. 1-24.

provides a more recent and growth orientated view.

Lecture 2: Late nineteenth century globalization.

The relationship between Europe, particularly Britain, and the rest of the world, particularly the areas of recent European settlement, became one of the main themes of the late nineteenth century. A summarized of the long-term relationship of international trade to the British economy in 1. Harley, Knick [2004]; Trade 1870-1939: from globalization to fragmentation, Chapter 7 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume II: Economic Maturity, 1860-1939. pp. 161-190. Harley, Knick [1995]; Introduction in Harley, ed., Integration of the World Economy, 1850-1914, Vol. 1, pp. ix-xix.

2.

Some recent research has centred on globalization and income convergence. 3. Williamson, Jeffrey [1996]; Globalization, Convergence, and History, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 56, No. 2, June, pp. 277-306.

Williamsons work highlights important trends but I have some reservations. 4. Harley, Knick [2000]; A review of ORourke and Williamsons Globalization and History Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 38, No. 4, December, pp. 926-935.

The development of multilateral trading relationships and a multilateral pattern of balance of payments settlement was an important aspect of the late nineteenth century international economy.

5.

Saul, S. B [1960]; Patterns of Settlement: I. The structure of world trade. Chapter 3 in Saul, Studies in British overseas trade, 1870-1914, pp. 43-64.

The role of the service industries associated with the international economy within Britain may be appreciated from 6. Cain, P. J. and A. G. Hopkins [1987]; Gentlemanly capitalism and British expansion overseas II: new imperialism, 1850-1945, Economic History Review, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 126.

Expansion of the Atlantic economy opened massive new territories that hitherto had been only sparsely settled. This involved the movement of people and capital from the older central areas of the Atlantic economy to the periphery. An overview of the migration of people is presented in 7. Baines, Dudley [1985]; Migration in a mature economy, Chapter 1, Introduction, Chapter 2, Issues in the history of European emigration, 1840-1914, and A summary of conclusions, pp. 1-44, 279-282.

Britain was particularly involved in the process of expansion. Not only did it provide migrant labour but probably more importantly it was a major source of capital. For an overall perspective see 8. Edelstein, Michael [2004]; Foreign investment, accumulation and Empire, 1860-1914, Chapter 8 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume II: Economic Maturity, 1860-1939, pp. 190-226. Hall, A. R [1968]; Introduction in Hall, The Export of Capital from Britain, 1870-1914, pp.1-13.

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Lecture 3: Britains loss of technological leadership and the American system.

In the late nineteenth and early twentieth century British firms lost the technological leadership that had accompanied the Industrial Revolution. Many have attributed this loss of leadership to failure of British entrepreneurship. An example is 1. Landes, David S. [1969]; The Unbound Prometheus, Some Reasons Why in Chapter 5 Short Breath and Second Wind, pp. 326-58.

American firms assumed industrial leadership in mass-production industries. American productivity was considerable higher than that of British manufacturing firms. For a discussion of labour productivity differences see 2. Broadberry, S. N. [1997]; The Productivity Race, especially Chapters 1 & 6, pp. 1-16, 7789.

At the same time, American firms increased in size and developed new corporate forms of managerial capitalism which the British did not immediately emulate.

3.

Chandler, Alfred D. [1990]; Scale and Scope: The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism, Chapters 1, 7-9 (See also the review article by B. Supple [1991], Economic History Review, vol. 44, no. 3, August, pp.500-514). Elbaum B. and W. Lazonick [1985]; An Institutional Perspective on British Decline in Elbaum and Lazonick (eds.); The Decline of the British Economy, pp. 1-17.

4.

This view has its challengers. See 5. Hannah, Leslie [1995]; The American Miracle, 1875-1950, and After: A view in the European Mirror [and discussion following] Business and Economic History, Vol. 24, No. 2, winter, pp. 197- 262.

New Economic Historians in the 1960s and 70s challenged an interpretation of British performance that rested on an hypothesis of entrepreneurial failure. 6. McCloskey, Donald N. and Lars Sandberg [1971]; From Damnation to Redemption: Judgements on the Late Victorian Entrepreneur, Explorations in Economic History, vol. 9. Reprinted in D.N. McCloskey [1981]; Enterprise and Trade in Victorian Britain, pp. 55-72.

I have participated to some extent in this debate. See 7. 8. Harley, C. Knick [1974]; Skilled Labour and the Choice of Technique in Edwardian Industry, Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 11, pp. 391-411. Harley, C. Knick [1991]; Substitution of Prerequisites: Endogenous Institutions and Comparative Economic History in G. Tonniolo and R. Sylla, eds., Patterns of European Industrialization: The Nineteenth Century, pp. 29-44.

Lecture 4: Technological leadership. Case studies: engineering, cotton, and iron.

The debate is perhaps best followed in the discussion of two industries, cotton textiles and iron and steel. The British cotton industry appears to have lagged in the adoption of the most modern techniques developed in America. 1. Sandberg, Lars [1969]; American Rings and English Mules, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 83, No. 1, February, pp. 25-43. Lazonick, William [1981]; Production Relations, Labour Productivity, and Choice of Technique: British and US Cotton Spinning, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 41, No. 3, September, pp. 491-516. Lazonick, William [1986]; The Cotton Industry in B. Elbaum and W. Lazonick (eds.) The Decline of the British Economy, pp. 18-50. Saxonhouse, G.R. and G. Wright [1984]; New Evidence on the Stubborn English Mule and the Cotton Industry, Economic History Review, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 507-519. [See also the reply by Lazonick and the response by Saxonhouse and Wright in Economic History Review, Vol. 40, No. 1, 1987, pp.80-94].

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Leunig, Tim [2001]; New Answers to Old Questions: Explaining the Slow Adoption of Ring Spinning in Lancashire, 1880-1913, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 61, No. 2, June, pp. 439-66. Leunig, Tim [2003]; A British Industrial Success: Productivity in the Lancashire and New England Cotton Spinning Industries a Century Ago, Economic History Review, Vol. 56, No. 1, pp. 90-117.

6.

Britain also seems to have fallen behind in iron and steel. McCloskey denies a problem 7. McCloskey, D.N. [1973]; Economic Maturity and Entrepreneurial Decline: British Iron and Steel, 1870-1913.

His conclusions were challenged. 8. Allen, R.C. [1979]; International Competition in Iron and Steel, 1850-1913, Journal of Economic History, Vol.39, No. 4, December, pp. 911-937. Elbaum, Bernard [1986]; The Steel Industry before World War I in B. Elbaum and W. Lazonick (eds.) The Decline of the British Economy, pp. 50-81

9.

Considerations of the timing of investment and embodied technology add an interesting additional dimension to the issue. 10. Temin, Peter [1966]; The relative decline of the British steel industry, 1880-1913. in Henry Rosovsky, Industrialization in two systems, pp. 140-155.

Lecture 5: War finance and money in the context of the nineteenth century Gold Standard.
The late nineteenth century international economy operated under the classical gold standard. 1. Eichengreen, Barry and Mark Flandreau [1997]; Editors Introduction in Eichengreen and Flandreau, The Gold Standard in Theory and History (2nd ed.).

Credibility of convertibility was seen as crucial. So too was occasional international cooperation. The war introduced great strains on this arrangement. 2. Eichengreen, Barry [1995]; Golden Fetters, Chapter 1 Introduction, Chapter 2 The Classical Gold Standard in Interwar Perspective, and Chapter 3 The Wartime Transition, pp. 3-99. Eichengreen, Barry [1998]; Globalizing Capital, Chapter 2 The Gold Standard, pp. 7-44.

3.

The war disrupted economies. Governments needed to finance unprecedented expenditure. Business patterns were interrupted. In addition, the war fundamentally changed economic and political relationships domestically and internationally. The war left problems for government finance, the

money supply, reparations and the balance of payments. The economic effects of the war are discussed in 4. Hardach, Gerd [1977]; The First World War, 1914-1918, Chapters 1, 8 and 9, pp. 1-10, 226282.

Lecture 6: Post-war monetary adjustment: continental inflation.

An important book that looks at the political economy of conflict in post-war Europe is 1. Maier, Charles S. [1975]; Recasting Bourgeois Europe, Introduction: From Bourgeois to Corporatist Europe and Conclusion: The Structure and Limits of Stability, pp. 3-15, 579-

594.
The economic situation is discussed in 2. Eichengreen, Barry [1995]; Golden Fetters, Chapter 4 Postwar Instability and Chapter 5 The Legacy of Hyperinflation, pp. 100-152.

Major problems arose from governments' financing the war and the subsequent debt-overhang. 3. Balderston, T. [1989]; War finance and inflation in Britain and Germany, 1914-1918, Economic History Review, Vol. 42, No. 2, May, pp. 222-244. Makinen, Gail and Thomas Woodward [1990]; Funding crises in the aftermath of the Great War, in Rudiger Dornbush and Mario Draghi (eds.), Public Debt Management: Theory and History, pp. 153-82.

4.

The overhang of wartime debt, domestic political stalemate and the international problems of reparations and war debts create inflationary situations in most of Europe. A famous discussion of the dynamics of inflation and particularly the role of expectations in inflations and their ending is 5. Sargent, Thomas [1986]; The ends of four big inflations, in Sargent, Rational Expectations and Inflation, pp. 40-109.

Lecture 7: The restored Gold Standard and British unemployment.

The war fundamentally changed international economic relationships. In particular, Britain was weakened as both a trader and as a financial centre, primarily to the advantage of the U. S. 1. 2. Kindleberger, C. P. [1973]; The World in Depression, 1929-39, Chapters 2. Eichengreen, Barry [1998]; Globalizing Capital, Chapter 3 Interwar instability, pp.45-92.

While inflation troubled most of the post-war continental countries, after a postwar boom Britain strove to restore the credibility of the gold standard by policy designed to support the old gold parity.

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Eichengreen, Barry [2004]; The British economy between the wars Chapter 12 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume II: Economic Maturity, 1860-1939, pp. 314-343.

Unemployment plagued interwar Britain. The predominant explanation was Keynesian. The connection between unemployment was spelled out in (try to visualize this argument in terms of aggregate demand and aggregate supply) 4. Keynes, John M. [1925]; The economic consequences of Mr. Churchill, reprinted in The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Vol. IX, pp. 207-230.

The prolonged unemployment has been the subject on much recent analysis. 5. Solomou, Solomos [1996]; Themes in Macroeconomic History: the UK economy, 19191939, Chapter 2 The exchange rate regime and UK economic performance during the 1920s and Chapter 3 Unemployment, 1919-38, pp. 24-84. Thomas, Mark [1994]; The macro-economics of the inter-war years, Chapter 13 in Floud and McCloskey, The Economic History of Britain since 1700 (2nd Ed.) Volume 2: 1860-1930, pp. 320-358. Hatton, Tim [2004]; Unemployment and the labour market 1870-1939, Chapter 15 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume II: Economic Maturity, 1860-1939, pp. 344-373.

6.

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Interwar unemployment became an issue between Keynesians and anti-Keynesian macroeconomists. An influential analysis suggested that much of the interwar unemployment was a response to higher rates of unemployment benefits (put this in a choice theory framework). 8. Benjamin, Daniel and Levis Kochin [1979]; Searching for an Explanation for Unemployment in Interwar Britain, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 87, No. 3, June, pp. 441-478.

This article has generated a large literature. An excellent summary and important contribution is 9. Eichengreen, Barry [1987]; Unemployment in Interwar Britain: Dole or Doldrums, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 39, No. 4, December, pp. 597-623.

Also see 10. Crafts, Nicholas F. R. [1987]; Long-term unemployment in Britain in the 1930s, Economic History Review, Vol. 40, No. 3, August, pp. 418-432. For discussion based on macro-economic models see 11. Broadberry, Stephen N. [1990]; The emergence of mass unemployment: explaining macroeconomic trends in Britain during the trans-World War I period, Economic History Review, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 271-82. 12. Beenstock, Michael and Peter Warburton [1991]; The market for labour in interwar Britain, Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 28, No. 3, July, pp. 287-308.

Lecture 8: Monetary crisis: Central Europe, UK and America.

Barry Eichengreen documents the decent into depression in 1. Eichengreen, Barry [1995]; Golden Fetters, Chapters 8 Cracks in the Facade and 9 Crisis and Opportunity, pp. 222-286.

He emphasizes the negative role of the interwar gold standard. Peter Temin presents a similar story but with somewhat different emphasis 2. Temin, Peter [1989]; Lessons from the Great Depression, Lecture 1: The Spoils of War and Lecture 2: the Midas Touch, pp. 1-87.

Kindlebergers older work provides a somewhat different version of the story that places blame on the United States for failing to provide leadership 3. Kindleberger, C. P. [1973]; The World in Depression, 1929-39, Chapters 6-11; 14.

Germany, reparations and international capital flows played central roles in the European collapse. A nice recent analysis connecting German policy in the 20s with difficulties in the 30s is 4. Ritschl, Albrect [1998]; Reparation transfers, the Borchardt hypothesis and the Great Depression in Germany, 1929-32, European Review of Economic History, Vol. 2, No. 1, April, pp. 49-72.

Lecture 9: Gold, money and the course of the Great Depression.

Many, particularly Americans, place primary weight on poor policy and particularly monetary collapse in the United States. A macroeconomic textbook overview is of the Great Depression in America 1. Mankiw, N. Gregory [2003]; Macroeconomics (5th.Ed.), pp. 295-301; 488-9 (p. 325 also discusses the role of devaluation in the 1930s recovery).

The classic treatment of the Great Depression as the consequence of incompetent U.S. monetary policy is 2. Friedman, Milton and Anna Schwartz [1963]; Monetary History of the United States, Chapter 7, The Great Contraction, particularly pp. 299-332; 391-419 (also Friedman and Schwartz, The Great Contraction, pp. 3-36; 95-123). Bernanke, Ben(1983) Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression. . Reprinted in Bernanke (2000) Essays on the Great Depression. Princeton University Press.

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5. 6. 7.

Bernanke, Ben (1995). The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, Vol. 27, 1995.Reprinted in Bernanke (2000) Essays on the Great Depression. Princeton University Press. Eichengreen, Barry and Mitchener, Kris [2003]. The Great Depression as a Credit Boom Gone Wrong. Working Paper. Cole, HL, Ohanian, LE [1999]. The Great Depression in the United States From A Neoclassical Perspective. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review. Eichengreen, Barry [2004]. Understanding the Great Depression. Canadian Journal of Economics. Vol. 37. Page 1-27.

The literature on this issue is discussed in 8. Brunner, Karl [1981]; Epilogue: Understanding the Great Depression, in Brunner, The Great Depression Revisited, pp. 316-358.

Lecture 10: The policy regime and recovery in the 1930s.

The modern monetary explanation of the depression now extends to an explanation of the recovery. Eichengreen (and Sachs) clearly states the argument that abandonment of the gold standard began recovery. 1. Eichengreen, Barry and Jeffrey Sacks [1985]; Exchange rates and economic recovery in the 1930s, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 45, No. 4, December, pp. 925-46. Eichengreen, Barry [1995]; Golden Fetters, Chapter 10 Tentative Adjustments, Chapter 11 The Dollar and the World Economic Conference, and Chapter 12 Toward the Tripartite Agreement, pp. 287-389.

2.

The idea that a Keynesian expansionary fiscal policy initiated recovery is a myth in both Britain and America. 3. Middleton, Roger [1981]; The Constant Employment Budget Balance and British Budgetary Policy, 1929-39 Economic History Review, Vol. 34, No. 2 May, 266-286. Brown, E. Cary [1956]; Fiscal Policy in the 1930s: a Reappraisal, American Economic Review, Vol. 46, No. 5, December, pp. 857-879.

4.

In the 30s state intervention became more general, presaging the post-war world. Recall 5. 6. Temin, Peter [1989]; Lessons from the Great Depression, Lecture 3: Socialism in many countries, pp. 89-137. Higgs, Robert [1997]. Regime Uncertainty: Why the Great Depression Lasted So Long and Why Prosperity Resumed after the War. The Independent Review. Vol. 1, No. 4.

One school of thought sees 20th century Britain failing because an institutional structure of small firms that could not co-ordinate markets and the failure of government to co-ordinate economic change. Many felt that there was a need for more planning and coordination.

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Elbaum, B. and W. Lazonick, [1986]; An Institutional Perspective on British Decline, in Elbaum and Lazonick, eds., The Decline of the British Economy, pp. 1-17. Foremen-Peck, James [1994]; Industry and industrial organization in the inter-war years, Chapter 15 in Floud and McCloskey, The Economic History of Britain since 1700 (2nd Ed.) Volume 2: 1860-1930, pp. 386-414.

8.

The government vacillated and its policy had varying impacts 9. Bowden, Sue and David M. Higgins [1998]; Short-time Working and Price Maintenance: Collusive Tendencies in the Cotton-Spining Industry, 1919-1939, Economic History Review, Vol. 51, No. 2, May, pp. 319-343.

10. Heim, Carol [1986]; Interwar responses to industrial decline in Elbaum and Lazonick, eds., The Decline of the British Economy, pp. 240-265. Balanced recent views are presented in 11. Nicholas, Tom [2004]; Enterprise and management Chapter 9 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume II: Economic Maturity, 18601939, pp. 227-252, and 12. Bowden, Sue and David M. Higgins [2004]; British industry in the interwar years Chapter 14 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume II: Economic Maturity, 1860-1939, pp. 374-402 A challenging story that points to both benefits and costs from policy emerges from 13. Broadberry, Stephen and Nicholas F. R. Crafts [1992]; Britain's productivity gap in the 1930s: some neglected factors, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 52, No. 3, September, pp. 531-58. 14. Broadberry, S.N. and N.F.R. Crafts [1990]; The impact of the depression of the 1930s on productive potential in the United Kingdom, European Economic Review, Vol. 34, No. 2-3, pp. 599-607.

Lecture 11: The war effort, post war challenges and economic policy.
The war, of course, was a major challenge. 1. Howlett, Peter [2004]; The war-time economy, 1939-1945 Chapter 1 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume III: Structural Change and Growth, 1939-2000, pp. 1-26.

The process of recovery challenged policy makers in the post-war years and beyond. . 2. Cairncross, Sir Alexander [1994]; Economic policy and performance, 1945-1964 and Economic policy and performance, 1964-1990. In Floud and McCloskey, The Economic History of Britain since 1700: Volume 3: 1939 1992 (2nd ed.), pp. 32-94.

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Tomlinson, Jim [2004]; Economic policy Chapter 8 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume III: Structural Change and Growth, 1939-2000, pp. 189-212.

Lecture 12: Socialism and the welfare state.

The growth of the economic functions of the state has been one of the hallmarks of advanced countries in the twentieth century. 1. Lindert, Peter [1994]; The Rise of Social Spending, Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 31, No. 1, January, pp. 1-37. Lindert, Peter [1996]; What Limits Social Spending?, Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 33, No. 1, January, pp. 1-34, or Lindert, Peter [2004]; Growing Public, Chapter 1 Pattern and Puzzles, Chapter 2 Findings, Chapter 7 Explaining the Rise of Social Transfers since 1880, and Chapter 10 Keys to the Free-Lunch Puzzle, pp. 3-36, 171-190, and 227-263.

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The British welfare state, as Lindert points out, has deep roots. 4. Middleton, Roger [2004]; Government and the economy, 1860-1939 Chapter 17 in Floud and Johnson; The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain, Volume II, Economic Maturity, 1860-1939, pp. 457-489. Hennock, E. P. [1994]; Poverty and Social Reform, Chapter 5 in Johnson; Twentieth Century Britain: Economic, Social and Cultural Change, pp. 79-93.

5.

Nonetheless, the welfare state is particularly associated with the period since the Second World War. 6. Lowe, Rodney [1994]; Postwar Welfare, Chapter 20 in Johnson; Twentieth Century Britain: Economic, Social and Cultural Change, pp. 356-373. Johnson, Paul [2004]; The welfare state, income and living standards, Chapter 9 in Floud and Johnson; The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain, Volume III, Structural Change and Growth, 1939-2000, pp. 213-237.

7.

The welfare state was also particularly associated with the post-war Attlee Labour government. Within the Labour government plan, Nationalization assumed a large role. 8. Tomlinson, Jim [1997]; Democratic socialism and economic policy: the Attlee years, 19451951, Chapter 1 Introduction: Labour and the economy 1900-1945, Chapter 5 Nationalization, and Chapter 13 Conclusion, pp. 1-22, 94-123, and 284-305. Tomlinson, Jim [2002]; The limits of Tawneys ethical socialism: a historical perspective on the Labour Party and the market, Contemporary British History, Vol. 16, No. 4, winter, pp. 1-16.

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10. Hannah, Leslie [2004]; A failed experiment: the state ownership of industry, Chapter 4 in Floud and Johnson; The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain, Volume III, Structural Change and Growth, 1939-2000, pp. 84-111. The impact of the welfare state on the economy has also been discussed in the literature.

11. Crafts, Nick and Steve Broadberry (1998) The Post-War Settlement: Not Such a Good Bargain After All Source: Business History/ 1998 vol:40 iss:2 pg:73

Lecture 13: Comparative economic growth in the long boom, 1951-1973.

The years from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s were an era of exceptional economic growth in Europe. The growth slowed after the mid-1970s. For overviews see 1. Crafts, Nicholas [1995]; The Golden Age of Economic Growth in Western Europe, 19501973, Economic History Review, Vol. 48, No. 3, August, pp. 429-447. Crafts, Nicholas and Gianni Toniolo [1996]; Postwar growth: an overview, in Crafts and Toniolo, Economic Growth in Europe since 1945, pp. 1-37.

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Temin, Peter [1997]; The Golden Age of European growth: A review essay European Review of Economic History, April, 1:1, pp. 127-49.

Of course, much of the growth was a catch up with the United States. 4. Abramovitz, Moses [1990]; The catch up factor in postwar economic growth. Economic Inquiry, Vol. 28, No. 1, January, pp. 1-18. Abramovitz, Moses and Paul David [1996]; Convergence and deferred catch-up: productivity leadership and the waning of American exceptionalism. In R. Landau, T. Taylor and G. Wright, eds., The Mosaic of Economic Growth, pp. 21-62.

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For details of catch-up in a long-run perspective see 6. Broadberry, Stephen [1998]; How did the United States and Germany overtake Britain? A sectoral analysis of comparative productivity levels, 1870-1990 Journal of Economic History, Vol. 58, No. 2, June, pp. 375-407.

Britains particular place in European context is outlined in 7. Bean, C. and N. F. R. Crafts [1996]; British economic growth since 1945: relative economic decline and Renaissance? in Crafts and Toniolo, Economic Growth in Europe since 1945, pp. 131-172.

A somewhat different perspective on British experience appears in

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Tomlinson, James [1996]; Inventing Decline: The Falling Behind of the British Economy in the Postwar Years Economic History Review, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 731-57.

For Europe as a whole, American aid, conditioned by the cold war with Russia, played an important role in the initial recovery. 9. De Long, Bradford and Barry Eichengreen [1993]; The Marshall Plan: historys most successful structural adjustment program, in R. Dornbusch, W. Nlling and R. Layard, Postwar Economic Reconstruction and Lessons for the East Today, pp. 189-230.

Nonetheless broader institutional issues were involved 10. Eichengreen, Barry [1996]; Institutions and economic growth: Europe after World War II in Crafts and Toniolo, Economic Growth in Europe since 1945, pp. 38-94. German growth was particularly spectacular, but probably depended on special circumstances. 11. Dumke, Rolf [1990]; Reassessing the Wirtschaftswunder: Reconstruction and Postwar Growth in West Germany in an International Context, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, No. 4, November, pp. 451-91.

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Lecture 14: A social contract basis of the golden age of low unemployment and high growth?
Sustained low level of unemployment and rapid economic growth was a gratifying difference from the interwar experience but it seems to have been achieved at a cost to productivity growth. Some have suggested that this may have reflected post-war developments that included the welfare state. The regime change the Temin identified as socialism in many countries carried over into the post-World War II years as we have seen in discussion of the Attlee government. An historians overview is 1. Maier, Charles S. [1984]; Preconditions for corporatism in John H. Goldthorpe, Order and Conflict in Contemporary Capitalism (Oxford), pp. 39-59. Maier, Charles S. [1981]; The Two Postwar Eras and the Conditions for Stability in Twentieth-Century Western Europe, The American Historical Review, Vol. 86, No. 2, April, pp. 327-352. (see also Chapter 4 in Maier [1987], In Search of Stability)

2.

Barry Eichengreen has emphasized the institutional support for the reconstruction and the golden age. 3. Eichengreen, Barry [1996]; Institutions and economic growth: Europe after World War II in Crafts and Toniolo, Economic Growth in Europe since 1945, pp. 38-94. Eichengreen, Barry and Torben Iversen [1999]; Institutions and Economic Performance: evidence from the labour market. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 121-138. Cameron, Gavin and Chris Wallace [2002]; Macroeconomic performance in the Bretton Woods era and after. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 479-94. Broadberry, Stephen [1994]; Employment and Unemployment in Floud and McCloskey, The Economic History of Britain since 1700 (2 nd Ed.) Volume 3: 1939-1992, pp. 195-220.

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A somewhat darker interpretation on the postwar settlement is presented in a series of papers that continues the Broadberry and Crafts view of the interwar years. 7. Broadberry, Stephen [1994]; Why was unemployment in postwar Britain so low? Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 241-62. Broadberry, Stephen and Nicholas Crafts [1996]; British economic policy and industrial performance in the early postwar period, Business History, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 65-91. Broadberry, Stephen and Nicholas Crafts [2001]; Competition and innovation in 1950s Britain, Business History, Vol. 43, No. 1, January, pp. 97-118.

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10. Stephen Broadberry & Nicholas Crafts, 2003. UK productivity performance from 1950 to 1979: a restatement of the Broadberry-Crafts view. Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 56(4), pages 718-735, November.

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11. Tomlinson, Jim and Nick Tiratsoo [1998]; An Old Story, Freshly Told and S. Broadberry and N. Crafts, The post-war settlement: not such a good bargain after all Business History, Vol. 40, No. 2, April, pp. 62-79.

Lecture 15: Regime shifts in macro policy: unemployment, balance of payments, inflation.
Through out the quarter century after the war the balance of payments presented a challenge to British economic policy makers. Since the late 1960 inflation has taken centre stage. 1. Kitson, Michael [2004]; Failure followed by success or success followed by failure? A reexamination of British economic growth since 1949, Chapter 2 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume III: Structural Change and Growth, 1939-2000, pp. 27-56 and Tomlinson, Jim [2004]; Economic policy Chapter 8 in Floud and Johnson, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume III: Structural Change and Growth, 1939-2000, pp. 189-212.

2.

provide overviews. Interesting perspectives from treasury knights of the early and late second half of the twentieth century are in 3. Cairncross, Sir Alexander [1995]; The British Economy since 1945: Economic policy and performance, 1945-1995 (2nd. Ed), Chapter 8, A half century in retrospect, pp. 288-323, and Budd, Sir Alan [2002]; The Quest for Stability, World Economics, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 5570. (http://web.nps.navy.mil/~relooney/England-Stability.pdf)

4.

Many Keynesian thinkers saw the balance of payments as a constraint on growth (as well as evidence of underlying failure). 5. Thirlwall, A.P. [1992]; The balance of payments as the wealth of nations in James Ball (ed.) The Economics of Wealth Creation, pp. 134-170. (Reprinted in Thirlwall (1997), Macro-economic Issues from a Keynesian Perspective)

A more monetarist perspective on the international monetary system emphasizes the fact that the fixed exchange rate made money and prices internationally determined and unsustainable expansionary policy emerged as balance of payments crises. 6. Bordo, Michael [1993]; The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview in Michael D. Bordo and Barry Eichengreen, eds., A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods system: lessons for international monetary reform (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), pp. 3-108.

Modern thinking about the balance of payments connects balance of payments experience to monetary developments. Overviews of respectively of monetary policy is

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7.

Howson, Susan [2004]; Money and monetary policy since 1945 Chapter 6 in The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume III: Structural Change and Growth, 1939-2000, pp. 134-166.

A useful monetary textbook discussion of British monetary policy since 1945 is 8. Bain, Keith and Peter Howells [2003]; Monetary Economics: Policy and its Threoretical Basis, Chapter 11, The evolution of monetary policy in the UK, pp.311-352.

The following chapters in N. F. R. Crafts and N. W. C. Wooldward, eds., The British Economy since 1945 provide a discussion that draws more fully on economists thinking 9. Dimsdale, N. H. [1991]; Chapter 4 British Monetary Policy since 1945, in Crafts and N. W. C. Wooldward, eds., The British Economy since 1945, pp. 89-140.

10. Foreman-Peck, J. [1991]; Chapter 5 Trade and the Balance of Payments, in Crafts and N. W. C. Wooldward, eds., The British Economy since 1945, pp. 141-179. 11. Woodward, N. W. C. [1991]; Chapter. 6 Inflation, in Crafts and N. W. C. Wooldward, eds., The British Economy since 1945, pp. 180-211.

Lecture 16: Economic growth over the long-term. Was there a decline?
1. Crafts, Nicholas [2002]; Britains Relative Economic Performance 1870-1999.

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