Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
European Utilities Research Team +44 20-7325 9069 Chris RogersAC Sarah LaitungAC +44 20-7325 6826 Javier Garrido +34 91- 516 1557 Sofia Savvantidou +44 20-7325 0650 Nathalie Casali +44 20-7325 9023 For specialist sales advice, please contact: +44 20-7325 8623 Ian Mitchell
ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com
For full JPMorgan Global Utilities Team details, please see inside cover
Sofia Savvantidou, CFA - France, Greece, UK Water sofia.savvantidou@jpmorgan.com Javier Garrido - Spain, Italy
javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.com
Nathalie Casali
nathalie.x.casali@jpmorgan.com
Sarah Laitung
sarah.l.laitung@jpmorgan.com
Andrew Smith
B A S I C S
andrew.l.smith@jpmorgan.com
Rajeev Lalwani
rajeev.x.lalwani@jpmorgan.com
Sergey Arinin
sergey.v.arinin@jpmorgan.com Latin America Latin America
Stefka Gerova
stefka.g.gerova@jpmorgan.com Australia Australia
U T I L I T I E S
Grace Chan
grace.ky.chan@jpmorgan.com
E U R O P E A N
Raoul Bostrom
raoul.v.bostrom@jpmorgan.com
Agenda
Page
The energy value chain Electricity generation Natural gas upstream sourcing Trading Transmission and distribution Supply Climate change Renewables
B A S I C S
84 94 99 108
E U R O P E A N
U T I L I T I E S
Generation
Fuel sourcing
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
T H E
Generation
Fuel sourcing
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
T H E
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
Mid-merit Demand present 30 80% of the time, predictable variability Generation: coal, CCGTs. Gas: contracts with near distance suppliers, seasonal storage and spot Baseload Demand present most of the time (c.80%) Baseload power plants operate continuously, even when it might not be economical to do so Generation: nuclear, lignite, r-o-r hydro, CCGTs Gas: long term contracts with long distance suppliers Renewables Tend to be outside the load curve on a must-take basis run when they can Impact on environment offset partly by need for balancing power Time (Day / Year)
Source: JPMorgan
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
However, the long term power price is driven by the long run marginal cost (LRMC)
C H A I N
The cost of generating a unit of electricity when all factors of production (i.e. including capital) can be varied If new capacity is required, a profit margin (spread) sufficient to cover all capital costs is needed We therefore need to look at future reserve margins (system adequacy) to determine where spreads need to be
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Economics - SRMC
price demand
Source: JPMorgan
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Indifference between building a new clean (i.e. using CCS technology) or dirty coal plant is a function of the CO2 emission permit price
8
T H E
Germany Germany
Power price
Power price
Min
Hourly demand
Max
New lignite
New CCGT
New CCGT
Nuclear
CCGT Lignite 40% 50% 60% Hard coal 70% 80% 90% 100%
0%
C H A I N
10%
20%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Source: RWE Factbook 2007 1 including renewables and CHP 2 oil, OCGT, hydro, etc.
T H E
Power exchanges have been launched in recent years to provide screen-based anonymous 24 hour trading
EEX in Germany Powernext in France OMEL in Spain and Portugal GME in Italy
C H A I N
V A L U E
T H E
E N E R G Y
Economics - spreads
Spark Dirty = power price - cost of gas Clean = power price - cost of gas - carbon price = power price - cost of coal - carbon price
Dark
Dark corresponds to coal Quark corresponds to nuclear Dirty = brown Clean = green
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
11
New hard coal, no CO2 capture, 2008E New hard coal, no CO2 capture, 2008E
C H A I N
Power price - Fuel cost: - Carbon cost: = Clean dark spread (/MWh) - Fixed cost:
+ (capital cost required return) Op & M + capital cost plant life load factor 8760 hours per year
(price of 1t of coal + cost of shipping 1t)
price of CO2 CO2 intensity
65
/$ t/MWh
V A L U E
-(25/t 0.72t/MWh)
=21.5
(42 + 1144 + (1144 10% )) 50 1000 0.8 8760
12
T H E
E N E R G Y
= - 4.1
C H A I N
65 /$ 1000
(12.9 5900btu/kWh)
1.45 1000
V A L U E
-(25/t 0.37t/MWh)
=3.25
E N E R G Y
(21 + 520
T H E
= - 9.7
Economics - LRMC
European system adequacy Nordel UK UCTE
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
14
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
3 reference points
C H A I N
3rd Wednesday of January at 11:00 3rd Wednesday of January at 19:00 (close to peak) 3rd Wednesday of July at 11:00
V A L U E
Estimates under normal climatic conditions (i.e. temperature and precipitation at long term averages) Reserve margin = RC/NGC
amount of unused available capacity at peak load as a percentage of total capacity
T H E
E N E R G Y
16
Imports can support a system provided there is sufficient import and export capacity Overall not an obstacle to power balance management in the UCTE area Sufficient transmission capacity Import and export capacity looks likely to satisfy (RC ARM)
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
17
Without considerable new build/ life extension the system will be out of balance in continental Europe post-2015 5% seen as minimum adequate to limit the risk of system interruptions such as Brown outs (voltage dips) or Black outs (system collapse)
80 70 60 50 remaining capacity (GW) 58.9 52.2 60.7 61.3 53.7 60.7 65.2 57.7
41.9 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 January 11:00 am January 7:00 pm July 11:00 am January 11:00 am January 7:00 pm July 11:00 am January 11:00 am January 7:00 pm July 11:00 am January 11:00 am January 7:00 pm 34.6
42.6
C H A I N
V A L U E
July 11:00 am
January 7:00 pm
-17.6
E N E R G Y
2007E
2008E
2010E
2015E
2020E
T H E
18
There has been large oversupply across Europe in the past The reserve margin is expected to fall below 5% post-2015 Therefore significant reinvestment in generation capacity is needed
Jan July
reserve margin
V A L U E
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007E
2008E
2010E
2015E
2020E
T H E
Source: UCTE System Adequacy Retrospect 2001-2006 and System Adequacy Forecast 2007-20 All readings 3rd Wednesday at 11:00am
19
From 2008 to 2011, the Nordic system is able to meet the estimated consumption in average conditions without imports Sufficient to cover simultaneous peak demand without import in 2010-11E Estimated production (MWh/h) that which is available at peak Peak Demand (MWh/h) = maximum one hour load in temperature circumstances with occurrence probability one winter during 10 years Net power export (MWh/h)
C H A I N
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
20
Temperatures corresponding to the coldest day in 10 years Forecast net importer under peak conditions in 2008-10
77000 Net power export (MWh) 1000 76000 500 0 -500 -1000 73000 -1500 72000 -2000 -2500 2008/09E 2009/10E 2010/11E
75000 74000
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
71000
Source: Nordel Power Balances 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 Large increase in production in 2010/11 is due to a new nuclear plant in Finland
T H E
21
V A L U E
E N E R G Y
1 An agreement between National Grid and a generator for future connection to the transmission system
T H E
SYS
22
As generating units are not available to generate 100% of the time, in the past, large integrated power system utilities (e.g. the Central Electricity Generating Board in England and Wales) sought to achieve a plant margin of 24% Now, the operational plant margin requirement for real time generation is generally 10% depending on prevailing circumstances
C H A I N T H E E N E R G Y V A L U E
23
"SYS based" total capacity "Consents based" total capacity "Existing/ under construction based" 100 ACS peak demand (base case)
"SYS based" plant margin "Consents based" plant margin 60 "Existing/ under construction based"
50
40
60
C H A I N
30 24% 20
40
V A L U E
20
10
E N E R G Y
T H E
24
Source: www.tva.gov
25
Typical thermal efficiency (btu/KWh) Hard coal Old technology New technology Lignite Old technology New technology 9,000 7,757 11,000 8,100
1-3 days
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, IEA, Alstom, JP Morgan estimates
Hard coal
Can load follow Dense so can be sourced globally
Lignite
C H A I N
Relatively more sulphur and ash Less energy per tonne so needs to be alongside the mine Lignite has a fixed cost of production so not at the mercy of the global coal market
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Source: www.tva.gov
26
OCGT (open cycle gas turbine) old style, can start up quickly during peak demand
CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) - by-product heat is used to generate additional electricity via steam cycle, optimally run base load or mid merit
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
Source: powergeneration.siemens.com
T H E
CHP (combined heat and power) - by-product heat is used to warm local homes or businesses
27
Typical thermal efficiency (btu/KWh) OCGT Old technology New technology CCGT Old technology New technology 10,500 9,250 7,000 5,700
Start up Load factor time (from cold) (hr/a) <1,752 5-10 mins <1,753 4,380-5,256 4,380-5,256 1-2 hours
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, IEA, GEpower.com, JP Morgan estimates
CCGT can be baseload or midmerit Latest CCGTs are highly efficient but still have relatively high operating costs in the current commodity price environment
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
28
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, IEA, JP Morgan estimates
Can start quickly during peak demand Highest operating costs due to:
Low thermal efficiency Low number of hours to amortise fixed costs across
Most polluting
C H A I N T H E E N E R G Y V A L U E
Source: www.tva.gov
29
Advantages
Security of supply reduces dependence on finite, and often imported fossil fuels Long term resource Environment protection zero CO2 emissions Uranium reserves are mostly located in stable countries and are abundant Could be almost unlimited due to uraniums multiple energy potential
Depends on prevalence of reprocessing Up to 96% of spent fuel can be recycled
Disadvantages
C H A I N
Take 1-3 days to start so only shut down when necessary Need to be refuelled every 12-18 months Chequered safety and operation history although image and statistics do not always match
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
30
International Nuclear Event Scale 0 no safety significance 1 anomaly (e.g. minor defects in pipework) 2 incident 3 serious incident (e.g. radioactive doses to workers sufficient to cause acute health effects) 4 accident without significant off-site risk 5 accident with off-site risk (e.g. severe damage to the installation) 6 serious accident 7 major accident (e.g. external release of a large quantity of radioactive material) Areva estimates:
C H A I N
Operational incidents (e.g. uncontrolled boron dilution): 1 in 100 chance per reactor per year Infrequent accidents (e.g. control rod withdrawal at full power): 1 in 100 to 1 in 10,000 Hypothetical accidents (e.g. control rod ejection): 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000,000
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
31
There is much more sympathy for nuclear power now than there was a couple of years ago in terms of:
Siting (building new plants adjacent to existing ones) Safety concerns Environmental benefits (a key issue will be the way cap-and-trade and Renewable Portfolio Standards are implemented in the US)
the latest Energy Bill from Congress makes federal loan guarantees available to build several nuclear plants, but not on an extensive scale Congress has not done anything about long-term storage of nuclear waste since the Yucca Mountain storage site was effectively blocked and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which has to approve new plants and extensions of old plants, is currently profoundly under-resourced
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
32
Public acceptance in Europe examples of opinion Pro UK government consulted on the future of nuclear power
Nuclear operators will have to cover the full costs of decommissioning and their share of the management and disposal costs
France
80% of generating capacity is nuclear Has been generally positive as there have been no accidents and wholesale prices have been remarkably low
C H A I N
Belgium
No new build after closure of the existing two plants scheduled to run til 2015-25, with potential life extension to 2025-2035
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
T H E
33
Technology
Reliable base-load generation at stable and low cost A complex nuclear fission process an atomic kettle attached to a steam turbine Generation I: reactors mainly being shut down end of this decade (Magnox) Generation II: 1970s 2050s (AGR) Generation III: 1990s at least 2050s (PWR, BWR) Generation III+: improved safety and reliability, 1990s at least 2060s (EPR) Generation IV: will be ready to market between 2020 and 2030 (VHTR, PMBR, Fast breeder reactors) Fusion reactors post 2050 (ITER): experimental plant under construction
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
34
V A L U E
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
T H E
E N E R G Y
Charge tubes Control rods Graphite moderator Fuel assemblies Concrete pressure vessel and radiation shielding Gas circulator Water Water circulator Heat exchanger Steam
35
Containment of reactor
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
T H E
36
Cooling circuit removes residual heat from the core part of this water evaporates Net power output 1600MW
V A L U E
T H E
E N E R G Y
37
Beyond
Generation IV potential designs:
Fast breeder reactors fast neutron reactor without moderator, fully closed cycle, minimises production of long-lived waste, gas-, lead- or sodium-cooled Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PMBR) smaller size, no super-criticality risk but as-yet unproven Advanced water designs, e.g. the very high temperature reactor (VHTR), with water at 1000C, also allows hydrogen production
C H A I N
V A L U E
Typical thermal efficiency (btu/KWh) Nuclear - AGR BWR PWR EPR 8,300 9,200 10,000 9,500
Start up time 1-3 1-3 1-3 1-3 days days days days
E N E R G Y T H E
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, IEA, Areva-np.com, wikipedia, JP Morgan estimates
38
Wind blows and sets the turbine blades in motion, generating power that can be converted into electricity A steel or concrete tower with a nacelle that turns horizontally in a way such that the rotor (usually equipped with two or three blades) always faces the wind Generation depends on:
cube of wind speed (double wind speed gives eight times more power)
C H A I N
square of rotor diameter (double rotor diameter gives four times more power) density of the air (If the air is 10C colder, density and power production increase by 3%. Moist air is less dense and so will lower power production) mechanical efficiency of generator aerodynamic shape of blades
39
Source: EC Energy Research
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Source: Vestas.com
Rotor lock Pillow block Main frame Impact noise insulation Hydraulic parking brake Coupling Generator frame Control panel Heat exchanger Generator Gearbox Yaw drive Rotor shaft Rotor hub Pitch drive Nose cone
V A L U E
C H A I N
T H E
E N E R G Y
40
Biomass Plant-derived organic matter (fix CO2 as they grow, so their use does not add to the levels of atmospheric carbon on a life-cycle basis)
E.g. forest residues, agricultural residues, pulp and paper operation residues, animal waste, landfill gas and energy crops
Co-firing in existing power plants (usually coal) can be used to reduce average CO2 emissions and potentially get green certificates Burnt in conventional steam boilers
C H A I N
Biofuel Many different conversion technologies to produce solid, liquid and gaseous fuels Biomass gasification (release via heat) Anaerobic digestion (release via bacteria)
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
41
Conventional geothermal applications rely on the geological coincidence of water-bearing, hot permeable rocks occurring at economically accessible depths At fluid temperatures of 85 - 150C, electricity generation requires the use of binary cycles, in which a working fluid is heated and vaporised in a closed circuit
The vapour drives a turbine, before being cooled and condensed, and the cycle begins again
C H A I N
V A L U E
T H E
E N E R G Y
42
Enhanced Geothermal Systems utilize heat stored in rocks that are technically accessible but lack the natural permeability Hence they allow geothermal generation to be used in a wider range of locations than before A well is drilled into >180C fractured basement rock and stimulated to enhance the natural permeability of the fracture network and create a heat exchanger into which additional wells are drilled
Water circulated through the wells gathers heat
C H A I N V A L U E
T H E
E N E R G Y
43
Solar photovoltaic PV cells transform the photon energy in solar radiation directly into electrical energy without an intermediate mechanical or thermal process Technology is currently very expensive Concentrated solar/ solar thermal Optical devices focus direct solar radiation onto an area where a receiver is located The radiation is transformed into heat in a medium (oil) and then to steam and electricity as per thermal power Continues to work after dark until collected heat dissipates Technology requires a very large area
Load factor (%) Offshore wind Onshore wind Biomass Geothermal Solar PV Concentrated solar 30-40% 20-30% 40-70% 95% 10-25% 10-35% Load factor (hr/a) 2,628-3,504 1,752-2,628 3,504-6,132 8,322 876-2,190 876-3,066 Start up time <30 sec <30 sec 1 hour 1 day instant instant Build cost (m/MW) 2.1 1.3 0.8-1.2 2.1 6.0-7.0 4.0
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, www.geoenergy.org/aboutGE/powerPlantCost.asp, JP Morgan estimates
T H E
44
Run-of-the-river (r-o-r) Natural flow and elevation drop of a river are used to generate electricity free fuel Reservoir Energy extracted depends on the volume and on the head (difference in height between the source and the water's outflow) Pumped storage
Requires energy to pump water into reservoir - when the wholesale price is low (hence not free fuel) Supplies peak demand - when the wholesale price is high
Not pumped
Uses reservoirs that are naturally elevated
Marine
C H A I N
Tidal
Utilizes the daily rise and fall of water Highly predictable Not yet economically viable
V A L U E
Wave
Utilizes the effect of the wind on the sea Not yet economically viable
T H E
E N E R G Y
45
Load factor Load factor (%) (hr/a) 70% 15% 6132 1314
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, JP Morgan estimates
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
Source: www.tva.gov
T H E
46
In the Nordic region 60% of generation comes from hydro France (dearth of natural resources) has developed the largest nuclear capacity in Europe
C H A I N
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
47
OECD Europe generation mix (see European Utilities Basics - Country Profiles for more)
Capacity (2005A, GW) Capacity (2005A, GW) Output (2004A, TWh) Output (2004A, TWh)
oil, 31.9, 4% renewables, 41.2, 5% coal, 254.9, 32% hydro, 169.5, 21%
C H A I N V A L U E
E N E R G Y
Low load factor output on average proportionally lower than capacity e.g. hydro High load factor output on average proportionally higher than capacity e.g. nuclear
T H E
48
Generation
Fuel sourcing
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
T H E
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
50
Gas sourcing
Exploration and production Exploration and production
Natural gas is a regional commodity Its physical properties make it hard to transport, particularly intercontinentally without liquefaction Most natural gas is transported in gaseous form via pipeline Gas markets still regional rather than continental or global European natural gas is priced using an oil-referenced formula The widespread adoption of Liquefied Natural Gas should change the gas market from regional to global Large natural gas consumers (especially power plant operators and retail suppliers) have incentives to hedge their physical commodity exposure as well as the basis (location) risk associated with dealing in different markets
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
T H E
51
Gas sourcing
Exploration and production Exploration and production
Why be involved in upstream gas? No indigenous supply Security Economic hedge If not involved upstream, generators tend to be beholden to very long term contracts (20 years - whereas the coal market is spot-based) with NOCs (National Oil Companies) Major market drivers Weather is both a demand and supply factor
Demand for central heating
C H A I N
Hydro conditions in areas that depend on hydropower drive requirement for CCGT power
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Oil price long term contracts tend to be oil-based, take-or-buy decisions impact the natural gas market
52
Gas sourcing
Storage Storage
Natural gas is stored in inventory underground under pressure in 3 types of facilities Depleted reservoirs in oil/ gas fields Aquifers Salt cavern formations Each storage type has its own characteristics which govern its suitability Physical (capacity, deliverability rate, porosity, permeability, retention capability) Economic (site preparation and maintenance costs, deliverability rates, and cycling capability) System integrity maintenance meeting baseload requirements Seasonal storage
C H A I N
Excess supply in the summer traditionally stored to meet winter demand Increasing prevalence of air conditioning in many countries has lowered seasonality but increased demand System balancing meeting peakload requirements Smoothing day-to-day Buffer to meet unexpected demand surges
53
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Gas sourcing
Gas providers can Carry out exploration and production themselves Have a stake in a project operated by another party Receive gas from a pipeline under contract e.g. Siberia Spain Receive gas from an LNG train e.g. Australia US
LNG is natural gas that is stored and transported at atmospheric pressure and a temperature of 260F
Liquefaction
Boat transportation
One LNG boat 150 000m3 (liquid volume) of LNG
Regasification
Volume increases 600 times
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
UK daily consumption is 301,000,000m3 (gaseous volume) of natural gas So one tanker is enough for 1/3 of a days demand
T H E
54
Gas sourcing
LNG LNG
The global LNG market is small but growing rapidly Declining US gas production means LNG is vital to satisfy demand growth and prevent price appreciation Low European natural gas prices have historically led to a flood of shipments to US terminals The last 2 years have seen a growing trend toward increased US imports in the spring Major market drivers
Upstream additions (Equatorial Guinea, Egypt) Demand patterns (hydro conditions in Spain, Norwegian flows into the UK) Asian demand (economic growth, major Japanese nuclear plant outages)
C H A I N
Trans-Atlantic arbitrage Crude oil arbitrage Operating performance at liquefaction, export and import terminals
V A L U E
E N E R G Y
T H E
55
Generation
Fuel sourcing
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
T H E
Trading
Why do utilities trade?
Risk management
Financial Operational
Profit opportunity
C H A I N
Gas price = f(oil, temperature) Power price = f(gas, coal, CO2, temperature, precipitation) CO2 price = f(gas, coal)
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Therefore coal, oil, gas, power and CO2 can be traded in pairs or swaps
57
T H E
Generation
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Supply
T H E
Dual-fuel contracts
Supply
Fuel sourcing
Step up transformer
Local substation
C H A I N
V A L U E
T H E
E N E R G Y
59
Change in supply profile, e.g. renewables: route grid mesh grid Interconnector security
Underground cable installation is 2x more expensive at 11kV, 20x more expensive at 400kV than an equally rated overhead line2
V A L U E
Route or mesh
Partly a function of geography, load centres and resources
E N E R G Y
T H E
2 Source: energynetworks.org
60
Cost
V A L U E
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
System security
T H E
Source: JPMorgan
61
Regulation
Regulation
Needed for networks as theyre natural monopolies Also end customer prices where competition is not effective (See Energy supply pp. 72-80)
Main concerns
Costs for customers Security of supply short and long term Government policy on energy mix, climate etc
Incentive (regulator sets allowed revenue may be based on current costs or what the regulator believes costs ought to be)
e.g. UK. There are a whole range of degrees of incentive strengths
V A L U E
May (UK) or may not (Spain) have an explicit regulated asset value in remuneration formulae Unitary (per MWh) or absolute (m) Single or multi-year
T H E
E N E R G Y
62
Allowed Return
+ Opex
C H A I N
+ Capex or Depreciation
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
T H E
63
x WACC
T H E E N E R G Y V A L U E C H A I N
Allowed Return
Allowed return may be unitary (per MWh) or absolute (m) Has to cover interest expense and dividends
64
Opex
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
65
Opex
C H A I N
Capex or Depreciation
V A L U E
Capital expenditure Based on agreed outcomes in incentive Based on defined budget in cost-plus May be volume based or absolute
66
T H E
E N E R G Y
Revenue or price cap Provides potential for outperformance Often multi-year Revenue or price cap
Capex or Depreciation
T H E
67
Allowed Return
Opex
V A L U E
T H E
E N E R G Y
68
Outperformance
or Depreciation
longer asset life
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Year 2
69
Outperformance
Achieved WACC
Opex efficiencies
or Depreciation
longer asset life
Normally can retain outperformance in, or across periods (2 5 years) Of course, with tough regulation the opposite can occur
V A L U E
E N E R G Y
or Depreciation
longer asset life
T H E
70
Allowed return
Regulator makes assumptions on gearing, cost of debt, cost of equity Pre or post tax? Real or nominal?
C H A I N
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Minimise wage inflation Invest in IT infrastructure Reduce network losses (but not always in regulated opex) Improve service time on maintenance Opex Year 1
e.g. In the 2007 Gas Distribution Price Control Review, Ofgems consultants (PB Power) proposed an 11% reduction in total GDN opex for 2008/09 2012/13, including
Work management -10.6%
C H A I N
Opex
Year 2
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
72
R&D
Invest in innovative, more efficient technologies
Capex Year 1
e.g. In the 2007 Gas Distribution Price Control Review, consultants proposed an 18% reduction in total GDN net capex for 2008/09 2012/13, including
Local Transmission System & storage -23.4%
C H A I N
Capex
Year 2
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
73
x WACC x WACC
Year 1
Year 2
C H A I N
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
74
Generation
Supply
Dual-fuel contracts
Fuel sourcing
C H A I N
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
Supply
T H E
Metering, billing and customer relationship Retail price is sum of generation and transmission so very little value added here Competitive metering in many countries suppliers compete on price and service Dual-fuel (gas and electricity) contracts Consumer services often also provided to generate additional revenue e.g. boiler breakdown cover
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
76
However markets are not always competitive and governments like to intervene therefore often tariffs are managed or regulated
C H A I N T H E E N E R G Y V A L U E
77
EU tariff regulation
EU Electricity Directives History of regulated tariffs - recent trend towards liberalisation of generation and supply UK pioneered privatisation, deregulation and liberalisation of utilities has not had controls on retail prices since 2002 EU pushing for free competition throughout the region
From July 2007 at the latest, all consumers will be free to shop around for gas and electricity supplies
In theory tariff regulation should not exist, in reality it does Third EU competition directive for electricity and gas will seek to stamp out tariff regulation although not immediately
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
78
EU tariff liberalisation
EC Benchmarking Report (2006) conclusions Nordic countries
Liberalisation fully embraced
Germany
Broad acceptance all gas and electricity customers are free to choose supplier Pressure for unbundling of RWE and E.ONs distribution activities Domination by a few large players prevents effective competition
Italy
Many calling for more control of prices Tariffs are adjusted on a quarterly basis to reflect commodity prices
France
Centrally controlled tariffs
C H A I N
Liberalisation in theory but not really in practice EdF and GdF only partially privatised
V A L U E
Spain
Tariff deficit system The Directives have not been transposed The regulatory framework does not allow for effective competition
T H E
E N E R G Y
79
Tariff deficit
The shortfall of regulated revenues from the tariffs versus revenue that would be realised by prevailing market prices
Occurs when the regulated price is < the market price Represents both a system failure and possible upside depending on what the market prices in We forecast shortfall in Spain: 2008E tariff deficit of 3bn
Due to internalised cost of CO2 by companies lowering sector revenues Spanish legislation requires that utilities are reimbursed
80
Unbundling
Many countries have pursued a regulatory policy of unbundling Separation of transmission and distribution from generation and supply Intended to increase competition by improving the fairness of network access Many countries and corporates have resisted unbundling citing
Diversification of risk Scale/ scope economies Legal/ management unbundling should be sufficient Regulatory/ compliance oversight may be used
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
C H A I N
81
(8)
Network access = 62/MWh 6.5% post-tax Inflation link for old assets Moving to incentive Reviews due April 06 & new system July 06
T H E
E N E R G Y
Generation Pool / spot price Cost-plus based Gas sourcing L.T. contracts Oil / coal link
Generation = 34/MWh Cost plus based Features 80% nuclear Remainder bought in Germany
Generation = 67/MWh Based on EEX Mostly a coal system Need for coal / gas to replace nuclear CO2 approx 8/MWh for gas and 18/MWh for coal Sales/marketing = 6.5/MWh
82
V A L U E
Affordability - Retail power Affordability - Retail power price % GDP/capita, 2006A price % GDP/capita, 2006A Romania Slovakia Poland Italy Denmark Portugal Hungary Netherlands Bulgaria Germany Sweden Czech Republic Belgium Lithuania Spain Austria Ireland Slovenia Latvia UK France Estonia Finland Norway Greece
Source: Eurostat
Price ex tax 165.8 146.5 143.3 142.0 140.0 136.1 129.2 125.4 122.9 117.0 108.8 105.0 101.9 100.4 94.5 92.1 89.8 88.7 87.7 85.5 66.1 65.8 63.5 58.3 54.7
Tax 56.0 20.5 46.3 7.0 89.0 45.5 22.7 5.6 33.2 138.4 58.6 45.9 16.2 20.8 25.5 28.6 15.8 17.5 27.3 15.2 5.7 10.9 11.5 10.6 10.7
Price with tax 221.8 167.0 189.6 149.0 229.0 181.6 151.9 131.0 156.1 255.4 167.4 150.9 118.1 121.2 120.0 120.7 105.6 106.2 115.0 100.7 71.8 76.7 75.0 68.9 65.4
Power cost % GDP 3.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0%
France Czech Republic Slovenia Finland Romania Greece Lithuania Estonia Latvia Bulgaria
Source: Eurostat
T H E
E N E R G Y
V A L U E
83
Agenda
Page
The energy value chain Climate change Renewables Valuation and drivers Appendix
B A S I C S
2 84 94 99 108
E U R O P E A N
U T I L I T I E S
84
Joint Implementation (JI) system for pollution reduction schemes in developed economies
C H A N G E
C L I M A T E
CERs can be transferred into EUAs etc. but the total number of AAUs is fixed
85
EUAs
If Germanys actual emissions are higher than its assigned allocation it can purchase CERs from Brazil and transfer them into EUAs Total AE = total AAU AE actual emissions AAU assigned allocation unit
CERs
AAU
AE
AE
AAU
Brazil
C H A N G E
Germany
C L I M A T E
86
Phase 3: 2013-20 Includes new sectors such as airlines, aluminium, petrochemicals, etc.
Note other trading schemes will probably emerge globally, but may not necessarily be fungible with the EU ETS
C L I M A T E
87
Industrial abatement (N.B little willingness for this from industrials so far)
C L I M A T E
88
The price of CO2 is determined by the Demand for abatement Supply of abatement Forecast 25/t for phase 2
50 45 40 35
Price (/t)
Industrial, <35/t Industrial, <30/t Industrial, <27.5/t Industrial, <25/t Industrial, <20/t
30 25 20 15 10 5 UK c-t-g summer
UK c-t-g winter
C H A N G E
250
300
350
400
C L I M A T E
89
C L I M A T E
90
Free allocations have been positive for profits overall, but unlikely post 2012 Although windfall for low / zero CO2 emitting plants will remain
C L I M A T E
91
C L I M A T E
C H A N G E
For more information, see our series All you ever wanted to know about carbon trading at www.jpmorgan.com/climatechange
92
Summer-cold regime generators decide to run the units over the winter and make them unavailable over the summer, either on maintenance or moth-balled Year-round running regime generators will focus their running hours on the peak power price periods across the year, irrespective of season
C L I M A T E
93
Agenda
Page
The energy value chain Climate change Renewables Valuation and drivers Appendix
B A S I C S
2 84 94 99 108
E U R O P E A N
U T I L I T I E S
94
Utilities
New entrants Autos Big oil New entrants Hybrids / Plug-ins Wind
R E N E W A B L E S
Biofuels
Solar Thermal
Marine
Offshore
PV
Corporates
95
Renewables
Climate change concerns Solar, wind, r-o-r hydro and geothermal technologies do not emit any GHGs Pumped storage hydro uses a small amount of electricity
Renewables
Biomass combustion emits CO2, but unlike fossil fuel combustion, this has not been out of the carbon cycle for a long time
Energy security concerns By definition, renewable energy is not finite It allows a country to reduce its reliance on foreign imports of electricity/coal/oil/gas Hence governments have been very keen to encourage investment in renewable energy capacity
R E N E W A B L E S
96
Tax credits levy charged on all suppliers unless they qualify for an exemption
e.g. Production Tax Credit in US, CCLECs in UK
97
EU renewables targets
EC proposals on member state targets for renewable energy as a proportion of all energy consumption EC proposals on member state targets for renewable energy as a proportion of all energy consumption
2005 RES Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU 27 23.3% 2.2% 9.4% 2.9% 6.1% 17.0% 18.0% 28.5% 10.3% 5.8% 6.9% 4.3% 3.1% 5.2% 34.9% 15.0% 0.9% 0.0% 2.4% 7.2% 20.5% 17.8% 6.7% 16.0% 8.7% 39.8% 1.3% 6.4%
Source: European Commission, JPMorgan estimates
2020 Target-RES 34% 13% 16% 13% 13% 30% 25% 38% 23% 18% 18% 13% 16% 17% 42% 23% 11% 10% 14% 15% 31% 24% 14% 25% 20% 49% 15% 20%
Basis points/year 71.3 72 44 67.3 46 86.7 46.7 63.3 84.7 81.3 74 58 86 78.7 47.3 53.3 67.3 66.7 77.3 52 70 41.3 48.7 60 75.3 61.3 91.3 90.8
% CAGR 2.6% 12.6% 3.6% 10.5% 5.2% 3.9% 2.2% 1.9% 5.5% 7.8% 6.6% 7.7% 11.6% 8.2% 1.2% 2.9% 18.2% 12.5% 5.0% 2.8% 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.7% 1.4% 17.7% 7.9%
The targets proposed on 23rd January were harsh but widely expected and the horizon is far out A proposal for tradeable Guarantee Of Origin (GOO) certificates would allow suppliers to meet their obligations with output from another country
Positive for suppliers and generators with pipeline in low tariff/high deliverability countries Negative for generators in green certificate/ low deliverability countries e.g. Italy and the UK
R E N E W A B L E S
98
Agenda
Page
The energy value chain Climate change Renewables Valuation and drivers Business drivers Valuation drivers Typical catalysts
B A S I C S
2 84 94 99
Appendix
108
E U R O P E A N
U T I L I T I E S
99
Business drivers
What makes a successful utility? Generation Transmission and distribution Supply Big vs. small
V A L U A T I O N
A N D
D R I V E R S
100
A N D
Development potential
Plant improvements - operational, environmental Life extensions Expansion via new plant including new regions
101
V A L U A T I O N
Regulatory relationship
Delivery Constructive dialogue Reliability Health and safety
Opex
IT management of inventory Sourcing at a low cost Optimal staffing
Capex
Purchasing at a low cost Pipeline delivery within budget and on time
D R I V E R S
Partly exogenous
Politics and type of regulation
V A L U A T I O N
A N D
102
Pricing for margin vs. pricing for market share Superior customer service to peers Dual fuel contracts Well hedged exposure to wholesale power prices
D R I V E R S V A L U A T I O N A N D
103
Load (lower fixed costs per MWh) Economies of scale in procurement Economies of scale in financing Reputation and brand name
Large customer base
V A L U A T I O N
A N D
104
Valuation methods
Absolute Discounted cash flows (DCF)/ dividend discount model (DDM) utilities generate long term cash flows with high visibility Premium/ discount to RAB Sum of the parts (SOP) useful in diversified utilities
Multiples DCF/ DDM RAB-based
EV/EBITDA traditional measure, free cash flow (FCF) yield important given capex cycle
V A L U A T I O N
A N D
105
V A L U A T I O N
A N D
106
107
Agenda
Page
The energy value chain Climate change Renewables Valuation and drivers Appendix Acronyms Glossary Abbreviations Conversions Metrics Key websites Bloomberg & Reuters codes
B A S I C S
2 84 94 99 108
E U R O P E A N
U T I L I T I E S
108
Acronyms
AAU ACS AGR ARPU ARM BETTA BWR CCGT CCLEC CCS CDM CER CHP E&P ELV
A P P E N D I X
Assigned Allocation Unit average cold spell advanced gas cooled reactor average revenue per user adequacy reserve margin British electricity trading and transmission arrangements boiling water reactor combined cycle gas turbine climate change levy exemption certificate carbon capture and sequestration Clean Development Mechanism Certified Emission Reduction combined heat and power exploration and production emission limit value
EPR ERU ETS EUA GFR JI LCPD LDZ LFR LNG LRMC MSR NAP NETA
European pressurised reactor Emission Reduction Unit Emissions Trading Scheme EU Emission Allowance gas fast breeder reactor Joint Implementation large combustion plant directive local distribution zone lead fast breeder reactor liquified natural gas long run marginal cost molten salt reactor national allocation plan new electricity trading arrangements
109
Acronyms
NISM NOC OCGT OFGEM OFWAT PPA PSCs PSO PTC PV PWR RAB RAV notification of inadequate system margin national oil company open cycle gas turbine British electricity and gas regulator England and Wales water regulator power purchase agreement public service contracts public service obligation production tax credit photovoltaic pressurised water reactor regulated asset base regulated asset value RC RCV RD ROC RPS SCWR SFR SRMC SYS TPA UCTE UNFCCC VHTR remaining capacity regulated capital value royal decree (Spain) renewable obligation certificate renewable portfolio standard super-critical water reactor sodium fast breeder reactor short run marginal cost seven year statement third party access Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity UN Framework Convention on Climate Control very high temperature reactor
A P P E N D I X
110
Glossary
Adequacy reference margin = margin against the peak load +minimum reserve capacity British thermal unit a unit of heat equal to 252 calories, enough heat to raise the temperature of one pound of water 1F Load curve order in which different plants are called upon to run based on their variable operating cost Minimum reserve capacity = 5% of national generating capacity Margin against the peak load = peak load load at reference point Plant margin - amount by which the installed generation capacity exceeds the forecast peak demand Remaining capacity = reliably available capacity reference load Reliably available capacity = total generating capacity non-usable capacity maintenance and overhauls outages system services reserve Reserve margin amount of unused available capacity of an electric power system at peak load, expressed as a percentage of total capacity Tariff deficit the shortfall of regulated revenues from tariffs versus the revenues that would be realised by prevailing market prices Thermal efficiency - efficiency with which the energy content (measured in gross calorific value) of the input fuel is turned into electrical energy by the generating station
A P P E N D I X
Thermal generation electricity production using a steam-driven turbine Windfall profits additional profits due to free CO2 allocations
111
Abbreviations
b or bbl cf bcm t Mcf Mt boe kboe kb toe Mtoe Btoe or Gtoe Btu KW MW GW TW MWh /y or /a /d
A P P E N D I X
barrel cubic feet billion cubic metres metric tonne million cubic feet million tonnes barrel of oil equivalent thousand boe thousand barrels tonne of oil equivalent million tonnes of oil equivalent billion tonnes of oil equivalent British thermal unit kilowatt megawatt gigawatt terrawatt megawatt hours per year per day
112
Conversions
tonnes of LNG
To: From: boe GJ kWh mmBtu tce toe m3 of gas tonnes of LNG Gcal
A P P E N D I X
boe Multiply by 1 0.1634 0.0006 0.1724 4.79 6.84 0.0062 8.58 0.685
GJ
kWh
mmBtu
tce
toe
m3
of gas
Gcal
113
Load factor =
Load factor 1 Power plants sometimes have technical problems and have to shut down
A P P E N D I X
The wholesale price may be too low for it to be economical to run the plant
114
Key websites
Dti.gov.uk/energy/statistics/index.html Iea.org Eia.doe.gov System adequacy
Ucte.org Nordel.org Nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/SYS/
Technology
Alstom.com Powergeneration.siemens.com Gepower.com Areva.com/servlet/finance/investorrelations/arevatechnicaldays-en.html Vestas.com
EU
http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/energy/electricity/benchmarking/index_en.htm http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/climate_action.htm
A P P E N D I X
115
Bloomberg tickers
SX6P (Dow Jones Stoxx European Utilities index) ERIXP (renewable energy index) EMIT (electricity emission allowance) EPWR (European electricity prices) PWNX (French electricity prices) ELEU (UK electricity prices) ELGE (German electricity prices) ELNF (Nordpool electricity prices)
A P P E N D I X
116
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
Price Charts for Compendium Reports: Price charts are available for all companies under coverage for at least one year through the search function on JPMorgan's website https://mm.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/company or by calling this toll free number (1-800-477-0406). Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: JPMorgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] The analyst or analysts teams coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe.
Coverage Universe: Chris Rogers: British Energy (BGY.L), Centrica (CNA.L), Drax Group Plc (DRX.L), E.ON (EONG.DE), EEN (EEN.PA), Fortum (FUM1V.HE), International Power (IPR.L), National Grid (NG.L), RWE (RWEG.F), Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE.L)
JPMorgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of December 31, 2007 Overweight (buy) 45% 50% 41% 71% Neutral (hold) 41% 51% 47% 64% Underweight (sell) 14% 38% 12% 49%
JPM Global Equity Research Coverage IB clients* JPMSI Equity Research Coverage IB clients*
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of NASD/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category.
A P P E N D I X
Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on any securities recommended herein. Research is available at http://www.morganmarkets.com , or you can contact the analyst named on the front of this note or your JPMorgan representative.
117
Analysts Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking.
Other Disclosures
Options related research: If the information contained herein regards options related research, such information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporations Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, please contact your JPMorgan Representative or visit the OCCs website at http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf. Legal Entities Disclosures U.S.: JPMSI is a member of NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. J.P. Morgan Futures Inc. is a member of the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of FDIC and is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. U.K.: J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. (JPMSL) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. 2711006. Registered Office 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the FSB. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Korea: J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul branch, is regulated by the Korea Financial Supervisory Service. Australia: J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (ABN 52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No: 238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is a Market Participant with the ASX and regulated by ASIC. Taiwan: J.P.Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and The Stock Exchange, Mumbai and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. Thailand: JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia is a member of the Jakarta Stock Exchange and Surabaya Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a member of the Philippine Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Brazil: Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero is a member of the Mexican Stock Exchange and authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [mica (p) 030/09/2007 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R] which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore) which is regulated by the MAS. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-x) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd and is licensed as a dealer by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Country and Region Specific Disclosures U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by JPMSL. Investment research issued by JPMSL has been prepared in accordance with JPMSLs Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research which outline the effective organisational and administrative arrangements set up within JPMSL for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to research recommendations, including information barriers, and can be found at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pdfdoc/research/ConflictManagementPolicy.pdf. This report has been issued in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other EEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction Germany: This material is distributed in Germany by J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. Frankfurt Branch and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Frankfurt Branch who are regulated by the Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. Australia: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in Australia to wholesale clients only. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to retail clients. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party
A P P E N D I X
118
or outside Australia without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. For the purposes of this paragraph the terms wholesale client and retail client have the meanings given to them in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Hong Kong: The 1% ownership disclosure as of the previous month end satisfies the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for persons licensed by or registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. (For research published within the first ten days of the month, the disclosure may be based on the month end data from two months prior.) J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited is the liquidity provider for derivative warrants issued by J.P. Morgan International Derivatives Ltd and listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. An updated list can be found on HKEx website: http://www.hkex.com.hk/prod/dw/Lp.htm. Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur due to a change in the price of the shares in the case of share trading, and that a loss may occur due to the exchange rate in the case of foreign share trading. In the case of share trading, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., will be receiving a brokerage fee and consumption tax (shouhizei) calculated by multiplying the executed price by the commission rate which was individually agreed between JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., and the customer in advance. Financial Instruments Firms: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., Kanto Local Finance Bureau (kinsho) No. [82] Participating Association / Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Korea: This report may have been edited or contributed to from time to time by affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul branch. Singapore: JPMSI and/or its affiliates may have a holding in any of the securities discussed in this report; for securities where the holding is 1% or greater, the specific holding is disclosed in the Legal Disclosures section above. India: For private circulation only not for sale. Pakistan: For private circulation only not for sale. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to members of "the public" as determined in accordance with section 3 of the Securities Act 1978. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside New Zealand without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. General: Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively JPMorgan) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to JPMSI and/or its affiliates and the analysts involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the research. All pricing is as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. JPMSI distributes in the U.S. research published by non-U.S. affiliates and accepts responsibility for its contents. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a JPMorgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. Other Disclosures last revised January 2, 2008.
Copyright 2008 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of JPMorgan.
A P P E N D I X
119