The Edinburgh Lectures 2007/2008 Inspiring People: Changing Landscapes

The Sheraton Grand Hotel, Edinburgh on Wednesday 19 September 2007 Under the banner Changing Landscapes, the sixteenth series of The Edinburgh Lectures explores issues about our universe, our heritage, our society and how it is changing. Nine of Edinburghs key organisations worked in partnership to bring together the series, which takes place in the Capital from September through to March. From astronauts to zoologists, each speaker will share their unique perspective on Planet Earth. Around 100 astronauts and cosmonauts (fliers) spent a week in Scotland in September 2007 for the XX Planetary Congress of Association of Space Explorers (ASE) hosted by Careers Scotland. It was the first time this major event has been held in the UK and was a result of Careers Scotlands relationship with NASA and the international space community. During the week, two of the cosmonauts and one astronaut present in Edinburgh for the Congress were invited to deliver the first 2007/08 Edinburgh Lecture, which was presented by The Royal Society of Edinburgh in association with the Edinburgh Lectures Partnership. The View from Space: Changing Planet Viktor Petrovich Savinykh, Dr Jay Apt and Sergei Vasilyevic Avdeev EVER WONDERED what it would be like looking down on the Planet Earth from more than 200km above the planet surface? Those who attended this year's talk on Changing Planets at the Edinburgh Lectures were fortunate enough to gain first-hand knowledge from those who have actually been there. Viktor Savinykh, Jay Apt and Sergei Avdeev, all members of the Association of Space Explorers, are among the exalted band of astronauts and cosmonauts privileged enough to call Space their workplace. For them, Space may be an almost routine experience of detailed experiments and complex technological and engineering tasks aimed at expanding Man's scientific knowledge. Even they, however, never tire of their "God's eye" view of the wonderful planet that we inhabit. It was comforting that even hard-bitten spacefarers never lose that sense of magic about where they actually are. We thank Avdeev - the only man in history credited with travelling into the future: 20 milliseconds - for this insight into a cosmonaut's life. When new cosmonauts on their first trip are asked what they would change about life aboard a Space Station, the answer, Avdeev revealed, was almost universal. "More windows!" They are not just gazing out of the spacecraft, however, in rapt admiration of the view. Their planet watching has an important purpose. Ever since the beginnings of the space race that pitched the technological might of the Soviet USSR against the United States, astronauts and cosmonauts have been monitoring changes in the Earth that can only be observed from their vantage point high above. No-one is more qualified in this field than Savinykh, who was selected for the space programme in 1978, has been decorated twice as a Hero of the Soviet Union, and clocked up 269 days in space before his retirement 11 years later. He began his talk by injecting some perspective. October 4, 2007 is the 50th anniversary of the launch of the first Soviet satellite, Sputnik, into orbit. What we have learned since then, thanks to the efforts of the space pioneers who made their observations over the intervening period, is that there have been huge natural disasters and man-made changes that have changed the planet forever.

The Edinburgh Lectures 2007/2008 - Inspiring People: Changing Landscapes

Unless precautions are taken, Savinykh made clear, the effects in future may be greater, as larger numbers of people than ever before are living in places vulnerable to natural catastrophes such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods and forest fires. Man, however, is adding to nature's destructive forces with new phenomena such as pollution and deforestation. Over the last 30 years there have been immense changes, with 30% of land now under cultivation, a 20% reduction in coral reefs and 4 6 times more water in reservoirs than in lakes and rivers. Many of the changes wrought can be seen from Space, Savinykh said, adding he and his colleagues now had vast experience of photographing the evidence and of putting the findings to good use to chart what is happening to the planet's landscape and climate. Further, evidence of change can be gleaned from geographical locations that would otherwise be difficult to access. Data gathered is real time and relatively inexpensive. One area where the expertise had been put to work was in tracking tropical cyclones, such as Hurricane Katrina, which in 2005 recorded windspeeds of 175mph, causing widespread devastation in the Caribbean and the southern US and killing 1,350 people. This happened even though warning systems are already in place, Savinykh said, so clearly there was room for improvement. To demonstrate the effects of global warming, as seen from Space, Savinykh used startling illustrations taken by his colleagues of ice retreat from a glacier in the Caucasus mountain range in central Russia. He also illustrated how harmful desertification caused by excessive water abstraction could clearly be seen by the shrinking of the Aral Sea in Kazakhstan. A picture from 1962 shows an extensive area under water, with depths of around 69 metres. Pictures taken in August 2007 show the Sea, by then one-seventh of its acreage just 45 years earlier. As a result, dust storms in the area had increased by 50%. Space farers have also had front-row seats for volcanic eruptions, Savinykh said, and of the plumes of smoke that are swept around the world. Airlines, among others, need to know what conditions their pilots are going to have to deal with. The theme was developed by Jay Apt, a Nasa astronaut with four Space Shuttle missions and two space walks under his belt, who also deployed stunning images taken by colleagues from US spacecraft. US astronauts have monitored how Lake Chad in Africa has been shrinking, how natural mud flows down the River Nile have reduced after the building of the Aswan High Dam and how the coast of Madagascar has been stripped of its forests. They have observed the Saudis "mining" for water in the Arabian desert and the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, where telltale, multiple plumes of smoke are proof of deforestation on a grand scale. Apt concluded by showing NASA pictures of the effects of forest fires in Greece in September, many of them believed to have been started by arsonists. It was a vision of a smoky apocalypse that could not have been seen from anywhere else. Avdeev's perspective came from three flights aboard Mir, the Soviet space station in orbit for 15 years before being abandoned in March 2001. Cosmonauts were able to monitor volcanoes and work on perfecting earthquake prediction techniques by making observations from above. So glorious were the views, it was the one job that every cosmonaut wanted, Avdeev confided. All spacefarers really desired was a "fish tank" with windows. That's the dream, and it remains a dream he added. His more serious point was that he and colleagues were witnesses to harmful changes brought about by human activities. It was their job to bring the proof back to Earth.

The Edinburgh Lectures 2007/2008 - Inspiring People: Changing Landscapes

Apt had a practical example. NASA took pictures of streams of raw sewage flowing out from the island of Sicily into the blue waters of the Mediterranean. When the Italian government was alerted to the problem, it was embarrassed into taking preventative action. Avdeev said that variations in cosmic rays, which can be observed from Space, can be used to warn of impending disaster, allowing a vital few hours for ground-based action. It was now up to a new generation of scientists to work out the information that can be used more quickly to help avert catastrophe. Savinykh disclosed that he went into Space because he was inspired by Yuri Gagarin; Apt, because as a young boy he saw two satellites passing overhead; and Avdeev, because it was a natural progression from his work as a telescope engineer. In response to an audience question about whether their findings had turned them into optimists or pessimists about the future of the planet, it was left to Savinykh to speak for them all. Confirming it was optimism that took them up into space in the first place - "otherwise we wouldn't have gone there," he admitted to laughter - they would all remain optimists as long as their observations were acted on. He ended with a warning: "We need to do more to solve the problems that we see happening today. That's the main task that faces our association." JEREMY WATSON Opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily represent those of The Royal Society of Edinburgh, nor its Fellows