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NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (13.4) (15.5) (18.5) 1QFY11 335 298 212 % chg (yoy) 24.2 27.0 21.0
`214 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 1QFY2012, LICHFs net profit grew by 21.0% yoy (down 18.5% qoq). Reported NIM for 1QFY2012 witnessed a decline of 23bp over 1QFY2011, while disbursements grew by weak 4.5% yoy (35.6% in 1QFY2011). We recommend Neutral on the stock. Disbursements remain muted; NIM declines by 23bp yoy: For 1QFY2012, LICHFs loan book grew strongly by 32.1% yoy (3.5% qoq) to `52,876cr; however, disbursements growth was muted at 4.5% yoy (35.6% in 1QFY2011). Individual loan disbursements increased by 14.9% yoy, while project loan disbursements, which are relatively higher yielding, declined by 79.4% yoy. LICHFs asset quality continued to be stable during 1QFY2012, with gross NPA ratio declining by 6bp yoy to 0.84% and net NPA ratio remaining constant at 0.35%. Calculated provision to coverage ratio for 1QFY2012 stood at 58.3% as compared to 62.0% in 1QFY2011. NII increased by 24.2% yoy (60.1% yoy growth in 1QFY2011); however, the pace of growth slowed considerably compared to the previous quarters. Reported NIM for 1QFY2012 stood at 2.8% as against 3.1% in 1QFY2011. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at a P/ABV multiple of 1.7x FY2013E ABV of `129.9cr. Historically, the stock has traded at 0.8x2.1x one-year forward P/ABV multiple, with a five-year median of 1.2x, but it has been rerated over the past two years to 1.9x average. However, on account of a higher interest rate environment, we expect loan growth to slow down to 23% for FY2012 (from 34.2% in FY2011) and spreads to be about ~33bp lower in FY2012 compared to FY2011. Also, unlike NBFCs regulated by the RBI, CAR and provisioning requirements for HFCs have not been increased by National Housing Board (NHB). Considering the near-term macro headwinds, regulatory overhang and above-average valuations, we recommend Neutral on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 36.5 7.8 40.4 15.3
3m (5.2) (6.0)
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 937 17.6 662 24.6 2.7 13.9 15.4 3.0 1.9 23.6
FY2011 1,441 53.8 974 47.2 3.1 20.5 10.4 2.4 2.1 25.8
FY2012E 1,682 16.8 1,118 14.7 2.9 23.5 9.1 2.0 1.9 24.2
FY2013E 1,985 18.0 1,311 17.3 2.7 27.6 7.8 1.7 1.8 23.5
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com Varun Varma 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 1,414 997 416 5 421 42 379 33 345 89 257 5.4 10.0 25.7 0.4 1,354 873 481 38 519 70 448 19 430 115 315 6.6 13.5 26.7 0.0 4.4 14.2 (13.4) (87.7) (18.8) (39.9) (15.5) 77.4 (19.6) (22.5) (18.5) (18.5) 1,012 677 335 2 338 39 298 9 289 77 212 4.5 11.7 26.7 0.4 39.6 47.2 24.2 87.6 24.7 7.1 27.0 274.4 19.4 15.0 21.0 21.0
35.6
34.2 27.8
33.3
40.0 60,000 30.0 20.0 45,000 36.6 36.0 35.7 34.2 32.1 40.0 36.0 32.0 28.0 24.0 20.0 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12
Source: Company, Angel Research
40,030
43,385
46,380
51,090
3,018
3,800
4,200
6,500
2,000 -
3,468
10.0 -
15,000 -
4.5
52,876
30,000
93.6
140
321 91
311 83
185
300
0.92 0.35
0.74 0.21
0.67 0.18
0.47 0.03
368
240 15
444
0.20 0.00
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
3.30
3.45 2.78
335
362
404
481
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
416
0.84 0.35
80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 -
Investor concerns
Concerns on the regulatory front
Currently, as mandated by the NHB, LICHF (an HFC), only has to provide 0.4% provisions on total outstanding amount of non-housing loans (0.7% of overall loan book); however, as with the case of banks and NBFCs where provisioning is required on overall standard assets the standard asset provisioning could also be extended to housing loans as well in case of HFCs, leading to higher provisioning expenses. LICHF also did not make any teaser loan provision on its Advantage-5 product, as it had not been notified by the NHB to do so. The company has replaced Advantage5 by a new non teaser plan Freedom; however, the threat of NHB classifying the loans disbursed via the Advantage-5 plan as teaser still remains. Also, capital adequacy requirements are relatively less strict for HFCs (12% CAR required with no specific requirement for Tier-1 capital) as compared to NBFCs (15% CAR required, 10% minimum tier-1 in case of IFCs). As of FY2011, the CAR of LICHF stood at 14.9%, and considering LICHF is leveraged 1213 times, the company might have to raise capital in future if CAR requirements are raised.
Dec-07
Apr-06
Mar-09
Aug-09
Oct-08
Apr-11
Jul-07
Feb-07
Nov-10
Sep-06
May-08
Feb-12
Sep-11
Jan-10
Jun-10
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 619 48.0 72 28.1 690 45.6 134 28.1 557 50.6 24 54.4 532 50.4 145 27.3 387 38.7 FY09 796 28.7 91 26.3 887 28.4 154 15.3 732 31.6 5 (78.4) 727 36.6 195 26.8 532 37.3 FY10 937 17.6 137 51.1 1,073 21.1 192 24.2 882 20.4 (28) 910 25.2 249 27.4 662 24.6 FY11 1,441 53.8 331 141.4 1,771 65.0 216 12.9 1,555 76.3 261 1,294 42.1 320 24.7 974 47.2 FY12E 1,682 16.8 207 (37.3) 1,889 6.7 263 21.4 1,627 4.6 117 (55.0) 1,509 16.7 392 26.0 1,118 14.7 FY13E 1,985 18.0 253 21.8 2,237 18.4 323 23.0 1,914 17.7 143 22.3 1,771 17.3 460 26.0 1,311 17.3
(641.2) (1,017.3)
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Loan Funds - Growth (%) Other Liabilities & Provisions Total Liabilities Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets FY08 85 1,747 20,344 24.6 1,181 23,357 775 21,936 24.9 30 616 23,357 FY09 85 2,149 25,422 25.0 1,727 29,382 1,129 27,679 26.2 35 539 29,382 FY10 95 3,293 34,758 36.7 2,096 40,242 1,389 38,081 37.6 36 736 40,242 FY11 95 4,074 45,163 29.9 4,298 53,630 1,403 51,090 34.2 47 1,090 53,630 FY12E 95 4,970 57,032 26.3 3,867 65,965 1,727 62,840 23.0 57 1,340 65,965 FY13E 95 6,022 70,149 23.0 4,870 81,137 2,126 77,294 23.0 68 1,648 81,137
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.9 0.1 2.8 0.0 2.8 0.3 3.2 0.6 2.5 0.7 1.8 12.5 22.9 3.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 0.3 3.3 0.6 2.8 0.7 2.0 13.0 26.2 2.7 (0.1) 2.8 0.0 2.8 0.4 3.2 0.6 2.6 0.7 1.9 12.4 23.5 3.1 0.6 2.5 0.4 2.9 0.3 3.2 0.5 2.8 0.7 2.1 12.4 25.8 2.8 0.2 2.6 0.0 2.6 0.3 3.0 0.4 2.5 0.7 1.9 13.0 24.2 2.7 0.2 2.5 0.0 2.5 0.3 2.8 0.4 2.4 0.6 1.8 13.2 23.5 23.5 5.1 0.9 17.1 4.1 1.2 15.4 3.0 1.4 10.4 2.4 1.6 9.1 2.0 1.9 7.8 1.7 2.2 9.1 42.0 2.0 12.5 52.6 2.6 13.9 71.3 3.0 20.5 87.8 3.5 23.5 106.6 4.0 27.6 128.8 4.7 1.70 0.64 62.4 1.07 0.21 80.4 0.69 0.12 82.6 0.47 0.03 93.7 0.53 0.05 90.0 0.55 0.06 90.0 3.0 19.4 1.8 22.9 3.1 17.4 2.0 26.2 2.7 17.8 1.9 23.6 3.1 12.2 2.1 25.8 2.9 13.9 1.9 24.2 2.7 14.4 1.8 23.5 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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