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Journal of Strategic Studies

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China's Emergence as a Defense Technological Power: Introduction

Tai Ming Cheung Available online: 17 Jun 2011

To cite this article: Tai Ming Cheung (2011): China's Emergence as a Defense Technological Power: Introduction, Journal of Strategic Studies, 34:3, 295-297 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2011.583155

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The Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 34, No. 3, 295297, June 2011

Chinas Emergence as a Defense Technological Power: Introduction

TAI MING CHEUNG

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China is beginning to ex its expanding military and strategic clout in the pursuit of its broadening national security interests. At the same time, the countrys economic and technology policies have also become more nationalistic, state-centered, and ambitious. The reasons behind this adjustment from a previously accommodating posture, why it has occurred across different policy areas, and whether it is a temporary phenomenon or the beginning of a more deep-seated strategic shift are not yet well understood. Important drivers appear to be at play. Powerful political and policy dynamics include surging nationalistic sentiment, leadership competition ahead of the 18th Chinese Communist Party Congress in 2012, and a more condent policy elite seeking to accelerate Chinas relative rise in the international order in the wake of the 2008 global economic crisis. More structural explanations point to weak authority at the top that allows powerful bureaucracies such as the military and science and technology (S&T) apparatus to pursue their own interests, which may not always align with national priorities. It will take some time before the overall nature and direction of change in Chinas grand strategy can be determined. In the defense technological realm, the development path is more visible. Chinas defense economy has set its sights on catching up with the West by the beginning of the 2020s and is making steady progress in building up its innovation capabilities, although this is presently in the form of incremental and sustaining types of activities. More highend, disruptive forms of innovation that would lead to major breakthroughs are likely to be beyond Chinas reach for another ve to ten years, although there may be exceptions in high-priority areas, such as space or aviation, that enjoy access to ample funding, foreign knowledge and technologies, and leadership support.

ISSN 0140-2390 Print/ISSN 1743-937X Online/11/030295-03 2011 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/01402390.2011.583155

296 Tai Ming Cheung This special issue provides a wide-ranging and detailed assessment of the present state of the Chinese defense economy at a time of rapid change and accelerating advancement in its innovation capabilities and performance. This collection of articles has three main goals: (1) to locate Chinas defense innovation dynamics within broader historical, technological and methodological frameworks of analysis; (2 to assess the performance of the Chinese defense economys six principal subsectors; and (3) to compare Chinas approach to defense industrialization with major counterparts in the Asia-Pacic region. These articles were originally written for a conference on Chinas Defense and Dual-Use Science, Technology, and Industrial Base organized by the University of Californias Institute on Global Conict and Cooperation (IGCC) in July 2010. The conference is part of a research project led by IGCC and funded by the US Defense Departments Minerva Initiative on The Evolving Relationship Between Technology and National Security in China. This project examines Chinas drive to become a world-class defense and dual-use technological and industrial power and the security, geo-political, economic and technological implications of this transformation. Some Key Findings These papers offer at least three insights into the state of development of the Chinese defense economy at the end of the 2000s and longerterm trends. First, the technological development of the Chinese defense economy since the onset of major sector reforms in the late 1990s has been impressive. This progress can be measured through a diverse array of hard performance indicators such as corporate protability, patents, product and research and development output, and educational standards. If this momentum can be maintained, the Chinese defense economy will be able to narrow considerably the still wide technological gap it faces with the worlds advanced defense S&T powers over the next decade. Second, the aviation and space industries are leading the way in the Chinese defense economys transformation, especially in civil-military integration, access and linkages with global production and innovation networks, the building of innovation capabilities, and the ability to adapt to market competition. Third, over the past decade, China has climbed to the apex of the military technological and industrial order in the Asia-Pacic region and its technological capabilities today match or exceed those of Japan, South Korea, and India. However, the Asia-Pacic region lags far behind the US and Europe, and this defense technological gap appears

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Introduction 297 to be widening with the gradual decline of the Japanese defense industry and the chronic inability of India to overcome deep-seated structural obstacles. China will become the dominant regional military technological power over the next decade, which will be a key pillar in its growing economic and military shadow over this region.

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