Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
E U R O P E A N U T I L I T I E S B A S I C S 2.0 - E L E C T R I C I T Y & G A S I N D U S T R Y O V E R V I E W
European Utilities Research Team Chris RogersAC +44 20-7325 9069 AC Sarah Laitung +44 20-7325 6826 Javier Garrido +34 91- 516 1557 Nathalie Casali +44 20-7325 9023 For specialist sales advice, please contact: Ian Mitchell +44 20-7325 8623
ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd
For full J.P. Morgan Global Utilities Team details, please see inside cover
See page 133 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including investment banking relationships. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The analysts listed above are employees of either J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. or another non-US affiliate of JPMSI, and are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NYSE/NASD rules, unless otherwise noted.
Sarah Laitung
sarah.l.laitung@jpmorgan.com
ami.t.tantri@jpmorgan.com
Russia Russia
Andrew Smith
andrew.l.smith@jpmorgan.com
Stefka Gerova
stefka.g.gerova@jpmorgan.com
Sergey Arinin
sergey.v.arinin@jpmorgan.com
Raquel Antonious
raquel.s.antonious@jpmorgan.com
Australia Australia
Vladislav Nigmatullin
vladislav.r.nigmatullin@jpmorgan.com
Latin America Latin America
Grace Chan
grace.ky.chan@jpmorgan.com
Agenda
EUROPEAN UTILITIES BASICS - ELECTRICITY & GAS INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page
2
4 61 69 71 88
97 107 112
111 116 117 121
Appendix
124
125 127 128 129 130 131 132 1
Agenda
EUROPEAN UTILITIES BASICS - ELECTRICITY & GAS INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page
Electricity generation 4 Natural gas upstream sourcing61 Energy trading 69 Transmission and distribution 71 Supply 88 Climate change Renewables Valuation and drivers 97 107 112
Generation
Fuel sourcing
C H AI N
E N E R GY
VALU E
TH E
Generation
Fuel sourcing
C H AI N
E N E R GY
VALU E
TH E
Electricity generation
i.
Economics
The load curve 6 The merit order 7 Short run margin cost wholesale prices, spreads 8 Long run marginal cost system adequacy/ reserve margins 14
i.
Technology.. 26
28 37 39
50 52 53 55 56
VALU E
Hydro 57
E N E R GY
i.
In Europe 59
TH E
Mid-merit Demand present 30 80% of the time, predictable variability Generation: coal, CCGTs. Gas: contracts with near distance suppliers, seasonal storage and spot Baseload Demand present most of the time (c.80%) Baseload power plants operate continuously, even when it might not be economical to do so Generation: nuclear, lignite, r-o-r hydro, CCGTs Gas: long term contracts with long distance suppliers Renewables Tend to be outside the load curve on a must-take basis run when they can Impact on environment offset partly by need for balancing power Time (Day / Year)
Source: J.P. Morgan
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
However, the long term power price is driven by the long run marginal cost (LRMC)
C H AI N
The cost of generating a unit of electricity when all factors of production (i.e. including capital) can be varied If new capacity is required, a profit margin (spread) sufficient to cover all capital costs is needed We therefore need to look at future reserve margins (system adequacy) to determine where spreads need to be
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
Economics - SRMC
price demand
8760
C H AI N
E N E R GY
VALU E
Indifference between building a new clean (i.e. using CCS technology) or dirty coal plant is a function of the CO2 emission permit price
8
TH E
Germany Germany
Power price
Power price
Min
Hourly demand
Max
New lignite
New CCGT
New CCGT
Peaking2 OCGT& Must run1 Nuclear CCGT Lignite 40% 50% 60% Hard coal 70% 80% 90% 100% Nuclear Interconnector and must run1 0% 10% 20% 30% Hard coal CCGT
Peaking2
C H AI N
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
E N E R GY
VALU E
Source: RWE Factbook 2007 1 including renewables and CHP 2 oil, OCGT, hydro, etc.
TH E
Power exchanges have been launched in recent years to provide screen-based anonymous 24 hour trading
EEX in Germany Powernext in France OMEL in Spain and Portugal GME in Italy APX in The Netherlands
C H AI N
VALU E
TH E
E N E R GY
Economics - spreads
Dirty Spark = power price - cost of gas Clean = power price - cost of gas - carbon price Dark = power price - cost of coal = power price - cost of coal - carbon price
Spark corresponds to gas Dark corresponds to coal Quark corresponds to nuclear Dirty = brown Clean = green
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
11
New hard coal plant, no CO2 capture, 2008E New hard coal plant, no CO2 capture, 2008E
C H AI N
Power price - Fuel cost: - Carbon cost: = Clean dark spread (/MWh) - Fixed cost: + (capital cost required return) Op & M + capital cost plant life load factor 8760 hours per year
73
/$
t/MWh
VALU E
TH E
E N E R GY
Please see our 1 July 2008 report European Utilities Most of what you need to know about power prices for more
12
New CCGT, no CO2 capture, 2008E New CCGT, no CO2 capture, 2008E
C H AI N
Power price - Fuel cost: - Carbon cost: (price of 1mmbtu of gas heat rate)
price of CO2 CO2 intensity
68
/$ 1000
(12.3 5900btu/kWh)
1.55 1000
VALU E
-(27/t 0.37t/MWh)
=11.1
= Clean spark spread (/MWh) - Fixed cost: + (capital cost required return) Op & M + capital cost plant life load factor 8760 hours per year
E N E R GY
TH E
+ (520 10% )) 30 1000 0.8 8760 = 11.1- 12.9 = -1.8 (21 + 520
13
Please see our 1 July 2008 report European Utilities Most of what you need to know about power prices for more
Economics - LRMC
European system adequacy
i. Nordel ii. UK iii. UCTE
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
14
TH E
E N E R GY
Installed capacity (GW) Bosnia Herzegovina 4.1 Slovenia 2.8 Western Ukraine 2.5 Luxembourg 1.7 Macedonia 1.4 Montenegro 0.9
VALU E
15
C H AI N
3 reference points
3rd Wednesday of January at 11:00 3rd Wednesday of January at 19:00 (close to peak) 3rd Wednesday of July at 11:00
VALU E
Estimates under normal climatic conditions (i.e. temperature and precipitation at long term averages) Reserve margin = RC/NGC
amount of unused available capacity at peak load as a percentage of total capacity
TH E
E N E R GY
16
Without considerable new build/ life extension beyond current estimates the system will be out of balance in continental Europe post-2015 5% seen as minimum adequate to limit the risk of system interruptions such as Brown outs (voltage dips) or
100 87.1 77.7 69.6 70 78.9 77.6 69.6 78.9 78.5 87.8
Black outs (system collapse) NB. 1GW = 1000MW, or one large coal power station
75.9 66.8 75.0
90
80
60
50
VALU E
C H AI N
5%
10
0 January 11:00 am January July January January July January January July January January July January January July
E N E R GY
TH E
17
There has been large oversupply across Europe in the past The reserve margin is expected to fall below 5% post-2015
Jan July
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
2002A
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008E
2010E
2015E
2020E
TH E
18
GW Net additions ( = new build - retirements) Of which: Wind Gas Renewables ex wind and hydro Hard coal Oil Hydro Non attributable Mixed oil/ gas Lignite Nuclear
By 2015 107 47.3 36.8 14.8 14.2 13.1 8.7 0.5 -12.3 -12.2 -3.9
By 2020 114 62.7 38.4 21.0 4.9 13.3 11.8 0.5 -12.5 -13.4 -13.3
Source: UCTE, J.P. Morgan estimates. Based on UCTE forecast capacity. Positive = net new build, negative = net retirements.
C H AI N
Imports can support a system provided there is sufficient import and export capacity Overall not an obstacle to power balance management in the UCTE area Sufficient transmission capacity Import and export capacity looks likely to satisfy (RC ARM)
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
19
= installed unavailable - reserves Peak consumption (MWh/h) = maximum one hour load in very cold conditions (probability one winter in 10 years) Net power export (MWh/h) = available capacity - peak consumption
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
20
80000 79000 Available production or peak demand (MWh/h) 78000 77000 76000
Available production (lhs) Peak demand (lhs) Net power export (rhs)
75000 1000 74000 73000 72000 71000 70000 2008/09E 2009/10E 2010/11E 2011/12E 0 -1000 -2000 -3000
VALU E
C H AI N
Based on capacity decided and planned. Source: Nordel Power Balances 2011/12, J.P. Morgan estimates
E N E R GY
TH E
21
Consented
Based on SYS forecast capacity. Source: National Grid Seven Year Statement 2008
VALU E
E N E R GY
+ those proposed new generation projects been granted the necessary consents under Section 36 of the Electricity Act 1989 and Section 14 of the Energy Act 1976 for connection to the network Existing or under construction total capacity (GW)
1 An agreement between National Grid and a generator for future connection to the transmission system
TH E
22
As generating units are not available to generate 100% of the time, in the past, large integrated power system utilities (e.g. the Central Electricity Generating Board in England and Wales) sought to achieve a plant margin of 24% Now, the operational plant margin requirement for real time generation is generally 10% depending on prevailing circumstances
C H AI N TH E E N E R GY VALU E
23
120,000
0.7
100,000
0.6
0.5 Capacity/ demand (GW) 80,000 0.4 60,000 0.3 40,000 0.2
ACS peak demand (base case) Existing, under construction, consented and not consented plants Existing, under construction and consented plants Existing and under construction only
C H AI N
VALU E
20,000
0.1
E N E R GY
TH E
24
24%
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
25
VALU E
26
Marine 56 Hydro 57
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
27
Typical thermal Typical thermal efficiency (btu/KWh) efficiency (%) Hard coal Old technology New technology Lignite Old technology New technology 11,000 8,100 31% 42% 9,000 7,757 38% 44%
Where in Load factor Load factor load (%) (hr/a) Midmerit Midmerit Baseload Baseload 66% 66% 80% 80% 5,782 5,782 7,008 7,008
1-3 days
1.25 1.10
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, IEA, Alstom, J.P. Morgan estimates
c. 164 years of supply (when used at current rates) vs. only 63 years for natural gas and 48 years for oil
VALU E
TH E
E N E R GY
Source: www.tva.gov
28
Coal is formed when plant material is covered by a layer of sediment, preventing complete decomposition The weight of the overlying layers produces various chemical changes that force out oxygen and hydrogen, leaving behind a layer of carbon-rich coal Coal deposits vary significantly by their: Heating value determined mainly by carbon content Ash content (the lower the better) Sulphur and other impurities (sulphur dioxide can be removed from emissions by scrubbers) Moisture content (can be removed by heating)
C H AI N
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
29
Steam/thermal coal is pulverised and burnt for power generation Coking/metallurgical coal is used in steel production There are four general categories/ ranks:
Rank Lignite/ brown coal Steam or coking Steam Age Youngest Carbon content 26 - 52% Heat value (BTU/lb) 8,300 Moisture content Highest Use Less energy per tonne so used for mouth of mine generation, e.g. in Germany Relatively more sulphur and ash Fixed cost of production so not at the mercy of the global coal market Industrial uses, attractive for generation due to low sulphur content Electricity generation and production of coke for steel Domestic heating, industrial uses
Coal-to-Liquids Highly capital intensive projects Have been used successfully outside the US Well suited to countries with large coal reserves but limited liquid fuels reserves e.g. South Africa
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
30
API#4 6,000kcal/kg coal at Richards Bay, South Africa ($/t) API#2 - 6,000kcal/kg coal delivered to Amsterdam/Rotterdam/Antwerp Cost, Insurance, Freight ($/t) Contract spread a proxy for global freight market
250 40 35 200 30 25 $/t
31
150 $/t
C H AI N
50
E N E R GY
VALU E
Freight (RHS)
TH E
Near term the global coal market remains very tight: In real terms current commodity prices are in the range seen when serious industrialization is underway Infrastructure constraints (rail and port) Shipping capacity delays Growing demand especially from the BRIC countries (we believe global resources are currently scaled to supply the Americas, Europe and Japan only) Supply shortage to be met by exports from the US, Columbia and Indonesia It could take several years before new capacity is built as producers are yet to commit capital based on higher prices
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
32
Longer term (2010-12): Significant new investment to improve freight infrastructure We expect imports to India to decrease as the effect of the nationalisation of reserves is reversed Older mines, labour issues and rising strip ratios (units of overburden that must be removed to access a unit of coal) could bring problems on the mining front J.P. Morgan coal price forecasts
$/t International thermal coal new old
C H AI N
Excluding freight. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates
2010E 125 80
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
33
Reserves
Others 17% Others Indonesia 1% 3% South Africa South Africa 6% 5% India 7%
C H AI N
500
Indonesia
Production
13%
Russia 5%
India 6% Australia 7%
VALU E
China Indonesia
E N E R GY
100
200
300 Years
400
500
600
TH E
34
US and Canada largest reserves but second largest coal producer production growth has been sluggish
Abundance of coal keeps costs relatively low except for mature Appalachian coal fields CAPP (Central Appalachian) primarily bituminous PRB (Powder River Basin) sub-bituminous, fastest growing coal producing region, among the cheapest energy sources per BTU, lower sulphur, utilities have been slowly switching to this over the last 20 years
Russia - second largest coal reserves in the world has the greatest potential for increasing exports
But majority of coal basins are located in the central part of the country, far from the eastern ports Domestic consumption increasing
China worlds largest coal producer but expected to be a net importer for 2008 and has only 48 years of reserves left
C H AI N
Cap on coal exports has been imposed Current infrastructure makes importing from Indonesia cheaper than transporting coal from North China (where the price is R200/t) to South (R700/t)
VALU E
Australia - worlds largest exporter to the seaborne metallurgical coal trade, mostly from Newcastle
Recent cost pressures and supply side problems from delay of Dalrymple Bay terminal expansion Longer term - infrastructure and port expansion projects to improve the logistics chain
TH E
E N E R GY
35
South Africa - worlds largest exporter to the seaborne thermal coal trade, mostly from Richards Bay
Richards Bay terminal is expected to expand to 91mt from 76mt by 1H09, however the movement of coal to the ports is constrained by the rail capacity A growing percentage of exports are now reaching India, creating a supply gap in the Atlantic basin A stronger AUD vs ZAR should make SA the more economic region for new coal supplies Traditionally had mines that supplied either the export or the power market Recently greater flexibility - new mines have planned to sell to both markets from the onset
Expected to provide the bulk of incremental supply to the Asian region Development of new roads and ports should help But government plans to cap coal exports will limit incremental supplies
VALU E
E N E R GY
Poland - no longer exporting to Europe but becoming a net importer from Russia Columbia - biggest coal exporter in Latin America and could double its production by early next decade subject to getting infrastructure in place
36
TH E
Start up Typical thermal Typical thermal efficiency (btu/KWh) OCGT Old technology New technology CCGT Old technology New technology 7,000 5,700 49% 60% Base/ Base/ 50-60% 50-60% 4,380-5,256 1-2 hours 4,380-5,256 0.43 0.37 10,500 9,250 33% 37% Peak load Peak load <20% <20% <1,752 5-10 mins <1,753 0.70 0.60 efficiency (%) Where in Load factor Load factor load (%) time CO2 (t/MWh) (hr/a) (from cold)
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, IEA, GEpower.com, J.P. Morgan estimates
The cleanest fossil fuel from a pollution perspective CCGTs can be baseload or midmerit
C H AI N
Latest CCGTs are highly efficient but still have relatively high operating costs in the current commodity price environment
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
37
OCGT (open cycle gas turbine) old style, can start up quickly during peak demand
CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) - by-product heat is used to generate additional electricity via steam cycle, optimally run base load or mid merit
E N E R GY
VALU E
Source: powergeneration.siemens.com
C H AI N
TH E
CHP (combined heat and power) - by-product heat is used to warm local homes or businesses
38
Oil
Typical thermal Typical thermal efficiency (btu/KWh) efficiency (%) 12,000 28%
Where in Load factor Load factor load (%) (hr/a) Peak load <20% <1752
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, IEA, J.P. Morgan estimates
Can start quickly during peak demand Highest operating costs due to:
Low thermal efficiency Low number of hours to amortise fixed costs across
Most polluting
C H AI N TH E E N E R GY VALU E
Source: www.tva.gov
39
Advantages Security of supply reduces dependence on finite, and often imported fossil fuels Long term resource Environment protection zero CO2 emissions Uranium reserves are mostly located in stable countries and are abundant Could be almost unlimited due to uraniums multiple energy potential
Depends on prevalence of reprocessing Up to 96% of spent fuel can be recycled
Take 1-3 days to start so only shut down when necessary Need to be refuelled every 12-18 months Chequered safety and operation history although image and statistics do not always match
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
40
International Nuclear Event Scale 0 no safety significance 1 anomaly (e.g. minor defects in pipework) 2 incident 3 serious incident (e.g. radioactive doses to workers sufficient to cause acute health effects) 4 accident without significant off-site risk 5 accident with off-site risk (e.g. severe damage to the installation) 6 serious accident 7 major accident (e.g. external release of a large quantity of radioactive material) Areva estimates:
C H AI N
Operational incidents (e.g. uncontrolled boron dilution): 1 in 100 chance per reactor per year Infrequent accidents (e.g. control rod withdrawal at full power): 1 in 100 to 1 in 10,000 Hypothetical accidents (e.g. control rod ejection): 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000,000
TH E
E N E R GY
Source: www.iaea.org/Publications/Factsheets/English/ines.pdf, Areva Technical Days
VALU E
41
There is much more sympathy for nuclear power now than there was a couple of years ago in terms of:
Siting (building new plants adjacent to existing ones) Safety concerns Environmental benefits (a key issue will be the way cap-and-trade and Renewable Portfolio Standards are implemented in the US)
the latest Energy Bill from Congress makes federal loan guarantees available to build several nuclear plants, but not on an extensive scale Congress has not done anything about long-term storage of nuclear waste since the Yucca Mountain storage site was effectively blocked and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which has to approve new plants and extensions of old plants, is currently profoundly under-resourced
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
42
Anti Germany
Nuclear closure program remains controversial Public increasingly considering the policy unrealistic
France
80% of generating capacity is nuclear Has been generally positive as there have been no accidents and wholesale prices have been remarkably low
C H AI N
Spain
Full moratorium Potential for change but unlikely to be soon
Italy
Nuclear power abandoned following 1987 referendum but current gvt has pledged to bring it back
Belgium
No new build after closure of the existing two plants scheduled to run til 2015-25, with potential life extension to 2025-2035
VALU E
E N E R GY
Baltics
Smaller demand base seems to be leading to multinational cooperation
Austria
Vehemently anti-nuclear
TH E
43
Reliable base-load generation at stable and low cost A complex nuclear fission process an atomic kettle attached to a steam turbine Generation I: reactors mainly being shut down end of this decade (Magnox) Generation II: 1970s 2050s (AGR) Generation III: 1990s at least 2050s (PWR, BWR) Generation III+: improved safety and reliability, 1990s at least 2060s (EPR) Generation IV: will be ready to market between 2020 and 2030 (VHTR, PMBR, Fast breeder reactors) Fusion reactors post 2050 (ITER): experimental plant under construction
C H AI N TH E E N E R GY
Source: Areva Technical Days
VALU E
44
AGR (Advanced gas-cooled reactor) Generation II (1960s) Mostly used in the UK Graphite is the moderator, CO2 is the coolant The moderator slows down the neutrons released by the uranium fuel preventing run-away reactions Gas picks up the heat generated by the fission reaction Hot gas circulates past the heat exchanger Final steam conditions at the boiler stop valve are identical to that of conventional thermal plants
C H AI N
so the same design of turbo-generator is used The control rods can be raised or lowered to adjust the reactor power
VALU E
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
TH E
E N E R GY
Charge tubes Control rods Graphite moderator Fuel assemblies Concrete pressure vessel and radiation shielding Gas circulator Water Water circulator Heat exchanger Steam
45
BWR (Boiling water reactor) Generation III Pressurized boiler Light water (normal water i.e. H2O not 2H2O) is the moderator and the coolant Bundles of uranium-filled fuel rods Heat is produced by a fission chain reaction Water circulating from the bottom to the top of the reactor is brought to 290C Generates steam, which drives the turbine Series of strong, leak-tight physical barriers shield against radiation
C H AI N
Metal cladding of fuel rods Metal enclosure of reactor primary circuit Containment of reactor
Reactor core
VALU E
E N E R GY
TH E
46
PWR (Pressurized water reactor) Generation III More complex than a BWR 2 circuits Light water is the moderator and the coolant Water under constant pressure so it doesnt boil 155bar higher than a BWR Primary circuit of water at 313C Secondary circuit of steam heated by the primary circuit completely separate and closed
C H AI N
Water and steam circulate so constantly cooling down and heating back up Unchanging and uninterrupted Cooling circuit removes residual heat from the core part of this water evaporates Net power output 1600MW
Source: Areva Technical Days
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
47
Beyond
Generation IV potential designs: Fast breeder reactors fast neutron reactor without moderator, fully closed cycle, minimises production of long-lived waste, gas-, lead- or sodium-cooled Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PMBR) smaller size, no super-criticality risk but as-yet unproven Advanced water designs, e.g. the very high temperature reactor (VHTR), with water at 1000C, also allows hydrogen production
C H AI N
Typical thermal Typical thermal Nuclear - AGR BWR PWR EPR efficiency (btu/KWh) 8,300 9,200 10,000 9,500 efficiency (%) 41% 37% 34% 36%
Where in Load factor Load factor load Baseload Baseload Baseload Baseload (%) 60-80% 80-90% 80-90% 80-90% (hr/a) 5,256-7,008 7,008-7,884 7,008-7,885 7,008-7,886
Start up time 1-3 days 1-3 days 1-3 days 1-3 days
E N E R GY TH E
VALU E
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, IEA, Areva-np.com, wikipedia, J.P. Morgan estimates
48
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, www.geo-energy.org/aboutGE/powerPlantCost.asp, J.P. Morgan estimates
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
49
Wind blows and sets the turbine blades in motion, generating power that can be converted into electricity A steel or concrete tower with a nacelle that turns horizontally in a way such that the rotor (usually equipped with two or three blades) always faces the wind Generation depends on:
cube of wind speed (double wind speed gives eight times more power) square of rotor diameter (double rotor diameter gives four times more power) density of the air (If the air is 10C colder, density and power production increase by 3%. Moist air is less dense and so will lower power production) mechanical efficiency of generator aerodynamic shape of blades
50
Source: EC Energy Research
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
C H AI N
Source: Vestas.com
Rotor lock Pillow block Main frame Impact noise insulation Hydraulic parking brake Coupling Generator frame Control panel Heat exchanger Generator Gearbox Yaw drive Rotor shaft Rotor hub Pitch drive Nose cone
VALU E
TH E
E N E R GY
51
Biomass Plant-derived organic matter (fix CO2 as they grow, so their use does not add to the levels of atmospheric carbon on a life-cycle basis)
E.g. forest residues, agricultural residues, pulp and paper operation residues, animal waste, landfill gas and energy crops
Co-firing in existing power plants (usually coal) can be used to reduce average CO2 emissions and potentially get green certificates Burnt in conventional steam boilers
C H AI N
Biofuel Many different conversion technologies to produce solid, liquid and gaseous fuels Biomass gasification (release via heat) Anaerobic digestion (release via bacteria)
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
52
Conventional geothermal applications rely on the geological coincidence of water-bearing, hot permeable rocks occurring at economically accessible depths At fluid temperatures of 85 - 150C, electricity generation requires the use of binary cycles, in which a working fluid is heated and vaporised in a closed circuit
The vapour drives a turbine, before being cooled and condensed, and the cycle begins again
C H AI N
VALU E
TH E
E N E R GY
53
Enhanced Geothermal Systems utilize heat stored in rocks that are technically accessible but lack the natural permeability Hence they allow geothermal generation to be used in a wider range of locations than before A well is drilled into >180C fractured basement rock and stimulated to enhance the natural permeability of the fracture network and create a heat exchanger into which additional wells are drilled
Water circulated through the wells gathers heat
C H AI N VALU E
TH E
E N E R GY
54
Solar photovoltaic PV cells transform the photon energy in solar radiation directly into electrical energy without an intermediate mechanical or thermal process Technology is currently very expensive Concentrated solar/ solar thermal Optical devices focus direct solar radiation onto an area where a receiver is located
C H AI N
The radiation is transformed into heat in a medium (oil) and then to steam and electricity as per thermal power Continues to work after dark until collected heat dissipates Technology requires a very large area
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
55
Wave
Utilizes the effect of the wind on the sea Not yet economically viable
Tidal
Utilizes the daily rise and fall of water Highly predictable Not yet economically viable
Current
Utilizes the temperature gradient between surface and deep sea water the salinity gradient (pressure differential between seawater and fresh water
C H AI N TH E E N E R GY VALU E
56
Run-of-the-river (r-o-r) Natural flow and elevation drop of a river are used to generate electricity free fuel Reservoir Energy extracted depends on the volume and on the head (difference in height between the source and the water's outflow) Pumped storage
Requires energy to pump water into reservoir - when the wholesale price is low (hence not free fuel) Supplies peak demand - when the wholesale price is high
Not pumped
Uses reservoirs that are naturally elevated
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
57
Where in Load factor Load factor load R-o-R Storage Baseload Peak load (%) 70% 15% (hr/a) 6,132 1,314
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2007, J.P. Morgan estimates
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
Source: www.tva.gov
TH E
58
Nordic region - 60% of generation comes from hydro France (dearth of natural resources) - has developed the largest nuclear capacity in Europe
C H AI N
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
59
C H AI N VALU E
E N E R GY
Low load factor output on average proportionally lower than capacity e.g. hydro High load factor output on average proportionally higher than capacity e.g. nuclear
Please see our publication European Utilities Basics Country Profiles for more detail on generation mix
TH E
60
Generation
Fuel sourcing
C H AI N
E N E R GY
VALU E
TH E
Gas sourcing
i. Exploration and production (E&P) ii. Storage iii. Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
62
Gas sourcing
Exploration and production Exploration and production
Natural gas is a regional commodity Its physical properties make it hard to transport, particularly intercontinentally without liquefaction Most natural gas is transported in gaseous form via pipeline Gas markets still regional rather than continental or global European natural gas is priced using an oil-referenced formula The widespread adoption of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) should change the gas market from regional to global Large natural gas consumers (especially power plant operators and retail suppliers) have incentives to hedge their physical commodity exposure as well as the basis (location) risk associated with dealing in different markets
TH E
E N E R GY
Source: J.P. Morgan Oil&Gas Basics Presentation
VALU E
C H AI N
63
Gas sourcing
Exploration and production Exploration and production
Why be involved in upstream gas? No indigenous supply Security Economic hedge If not involved upstream, generators tend to be beholden to very long term contracts (20 years - whereas the coal market is spot-based) with NOCs (National Oil Companies) Major market drivers Weather is both a demand and supply factor
Demand for central heating
C H AI N
Hydro conditions in areas that depend on hydropower drive requirement for CCGT power
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
Oil price long term contracts tend to be oil-based, take-or-buy decisions impact the natural gas market
64
Gas sourcing
Exploration and production Exploration and production
Gas providers can Carry out exploration and production themselves Have a stake in a project operated by another party Receive gas from a pipeline under contract e.g. Siberia Spain Receive gas from an LNG train e.g. Australia US
LNG is natural gas that is stored and transported at atmospheric pressure and a temperature of 260F
Liquefaction
Boat transportation
One LNG boat 150 000m3 (liquid volume) of LNG
Regasification
Volume increases 600 times
C H AI N
UK daily consumption is 301,000,000m3 (gaseous volume) of natural gas So one tanker is enough for 1/3 of a days demand
E N E R GY TH E
Source: IEA, J.P. Morgan
VALU E
65
Gas sourcing
Storage Storage
Natural gas is stored in inventory underground under pressure in 3 types of facilities Depleted reservoirs in oil/ gas fields Aquifers Salt cavern formations Each storage type has its own characteristics which govern its suitability Physical (capacity, deliverability rate, porosity, permeability, retention capability) Economic (site preparation and maintenance costs, deliverability rates, and cycling capability) System integrity maintenance meeting baseload requirements Seasonal storage
C H AI N
Excess supply in the summer traditionally stored to meet winter demand Increasing prevalence of air conditioning in many countries has lowered seasonality but increased demand System balancing meeting peakload requirements Smoothing day-to-day Buffer to meet unexpected demand surges
66
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
Gas sourcing
LNG LNG
The global LNG market is small but growing rapidly: c. 250bcm/y, 7% of global gas supply Declining US gas production means LNG is vital to satisfy demand growth and prevent price appreciation Low European natural gas prices have historically led to a flood of shipments to US terminals The last 2 years have seen a growing trend toward increased US imports in the spring Major market drivers
Upstream additions (Equatorial Guinea, Egypt) Demand patterns (hydro conditions in Spain, Norwegian flows into the UK) Asian demand (economic growth, major Japanese nuclear plant outages)
C H AI N
Trans-Atlantic arbitrage Crude oil arbitrage Operating performance at liquefaction, export and import terminals
VALU E
E N E R GY
TH E
67
Gas sourcing
LNG LNG
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
68
Generation
Fuel sourcing
C H AI N
E N E R GY
VALU E
TH E
Trading
Why do utilities trade? Risk management Financial Operational Profit opportunity Some companies dynamically manage their energy portfolios e.g. EDFs trading has been very profitable Strong correlation between oil, gas, electricity and CO2 prices companies can enter into multi-commodity swaps
C H AI N
Gas price = f(oil, temperature) Power price = f(gas, coal, CO2, temperature, precipitation) CO2 price = f(gas, coal)
E N E R GY
VALU E
Therefore coal, oil, gas, power and CO2 can be traded in pairs or swaps
TH E
70
Generation
Fuel sourcing
C H AI N
E N E R GY
VALU E
TH E
Step up transformer
Local substation
C H AI N
VALU E
TH E
E N E R GY
72
Change in supply profile, e.g. renewables: route grid mesh grid Interconnector security
Underground cable installation is 2x more expensive at 11kV, 20x more expensive at 400kV than an equally rated overhead line2
VALU E
Route or mesh
Partly a function of geography, load centres and resources
E N E R GY
TH E
2 Source: energynetworks.org
73
Cost
VALU E
C H AI N
E N E R GY
System security
TH E
74
Regulation
Regulation
Needed for networks as theyre natural monopolies Also end customer prices where competition is not effective (See Energy supply pp. 72-80)
Main concerns
Costs for customers Security of supply short and long term Government policy on energy mix, climate etc
Incentive (regulator sets allowed revenue may be based on current costs or what the regulator believes costs ought to be)
e.g. UK. There are a whole range of degrees of incentive strengths
VALU E
May (UK) or may not (Spain) have an explicit regulated asset value in remuneration formulae Unitary (per MWh) or absolute (m) Single or multi-year
TH E
E N E R GY
75
Allowed Return
+ Opex
C H AI N
+ Capex or Depreciation
E N E R GY
VALU E
TH E
76
x WACC
TH E E N E R GY VALU E C H AI N
Allowed Return
Allowed return may be unitary (per MWh) or absolute (m) Has to cover interest expense and dividends
77
Opex
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
78
Opex
C H AI N
Capex or Depreciation
VALU E
Capital expenditure Based on agreed outcomes in incentive Based on defined budget in cost-plus May be volume based or absolute
79
TH E
E N E R GY
Revenue or price cap Provides potential for outperformance Often multi-year Revenue or price cap
Capex or Depreciation
TH E
80
Allowed Return
Opex
VALU E
TH E
E N E R GY
81
Outperformance
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
or Depreciation
longer asset life
Year 2
82
Outperformance
Achieved WACC
Opex efficiencies
Normally can retain outperformance in, or across periods (2 5 years) Of course, with tough regulation the opposite can occur
or Depreciation
longer asset life
VALU E
E N E R GY
or Depreciation
longer asset life
TH E
83
Allowed return
Regulator makes assumptions on gearing, cost of debt, cost of equity Pre or post tax? Real or nominal?
C H AI N
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
84
Minimise wage inflation Invest in IT infrastructure Reduce network losses (but not always in regulated opex) Improve service time on maintenance Opex Year 1
e.g. In the 2007 Gas Distribution Price Control Review, Ofgems consultants (PB Power) proposed an 11% reduction in total GDN opex for 2008/09 2012/13, including
Work management -10.6%
C H AI N
Opex
Year 2
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
85
R&D
Invest in innovative, more efficient technologies
Capex Year 1
e.g. In the 2007 Gas Distribution Price Control Review, consultants proposed an 18% reduction in total GDN net capex for 2008/09 2012/13, including
Local Transmission System & storage -23.4%
C H AI N
Capex
Year 2
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
86
x WACC x WACC
Year 1
Year 2
C H AI N
Achieved
50% 5% 9%
7%
70% 5.5% 9%
6.55%
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
87
Generation
Supply
Dual-fuel contracts
Fuel sourcing
C H AI N
E N E R GY
VALU E
Supply
TH E
Metering, billing and customer relationship Retail price is sum of generation and transmission so very little value added here Competitive metering in many countries suppliers compete on price and service Dual-fuel (gas and electricity) contracts Consumer services often also provided to generate additional revenue e.g. boiler breakdown cover
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
89
However markets are not always competitive and governments like to intervene therefore often tariffs are managed or regulated
C H AI N TH E E N E R GY VALU E
90
EU tariff regulation
EU Electricity Directives History of regulated tariffs - recent trend towards liberalisation of generation and supply UK pioneered privatisation, deregulation and liberalisation of utilities has not had controls on retail prices since 2002 EU pushing for free competition throughout the region
From July 2007 at the latest, all consumers will be free to shop around for gas and electricity supplies
In theory tariff regulation should not exist, in reality it does Third EU competition directive for electricity and gas will seek to stamp out tariff regulation although not immediately
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
91
EU tariff liberalisation
EC Benchmarking Report (2006) - conclusions Nordic countries
Liberalisation fully embraced
Germany
Broad acceptance all gas and electricity customers are free to choose supplier Pressure for unbundling of RWE and E.ONs distribution activities Domination by a few large players prevents effective competition
Italy
Many calling for more control of prices Tariffs are adjusted on a quarterly basis to reflect commodity prices
France
Centrally controlled tariffs
C H AI N
Liberalisation in theory but not really in practice EDF and GDF only partially privatised
VALU E
Spain
Tariff deficit system The Directives have not been transposed The regulatory framework does not allow for effective competition
TH E
E N E R GY
92
Tariff deficit
The shortfall of regulated revenues from the tariffs versus revenue that would be realised by prevailing market prices
Occurs when the regulated price is < the market price Represents both a system failure and possible upside depending on what the market prices in We forecast shortfall in Spain: 2008E tariff deficit of 3bn
Due to internalised cost of CO2 by companies lowering sector revenues Spanish legislation requires that utilities are reimbursed
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
93
Unbundling
Many countries have pursued a regulatory policy of unbundling Separation of transmission and distribution from generation and supply Intended to increase competition by improving the fairness of network access Many countries and corporates have resisted unbundling citing
Diversification of risk Scale/ scope economies Legal/ management unbundling should be sufficient Regulatory/ compliance oversight may be used
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
94
(8)
Network access = 62/MWh 6.5% post-tax Inflation link for old assets Moving to incentive Review due April/May 2008 for 2009-13 pricing period
TH E
E N E R GY
Generation Pool / spot price Cost-plus based Gas sourcing L.T. contracts Oil / coal link
VALU E
Generation = 39/MWh Cost plus based Features 80% nuclear Remainder bought in Germany
Generation = 82/MWh Based on EEX Mostly a coal system Need for coal / gas to replace nuclear CO2 approx 8/MWh for gas and 18/MWh for coal Sales/marketing = 9/MWh
95
/MWh Italy Ireland Germany Portugal Netherlands Norway Slovakia UK Belgium Denmark Sweden Austria Hungary Spain Poland France Czech Republic Slovenia Finland Romania Greece Lithuania Estonia Latvia Bulgaria
Source: Eurostat
Price ex tax 165.8 146.5 143.3 142.0 140.0 136.1 129.2 125.4 122.9 117.0 108.8 105.0 101.9 100.4 94.5 92.1 89.8 88.7 87.7 85.5 66.1 65.8 63.5 58.3 54.7
Tax 44.6 19.7 46.3 8.0 89.0 42.6 25.5 6.1 34.8 138.4 58.6 49.8 22.1 22.1 27.9 28.4 16.5 19.8 27.8 18.8 6.0 11.8 11.5 3.5 11.2
Price with tax 210.4 166.2 189.6 150.0 229.0 178.7 154.7 131.5 157.7 255.4 167.4 154.8 124.0 122.5 122.4 120.5 106.3 108.5 115.5 104.3 72.1 77.6 75.0 61.8 65.9
Romania Slovakia Poland Italy Denmark Portugal Hungary Netherlands Bulgaria Germany Sweden Czech Republic Belgium Lithuania Spain Austria Ireland Slovenia UK France Latvia Estonia Finland Norway Greece
Source: Eurostat
Power cost % GDP 3.7% 3.2% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0%
TH E
E N E R GY
VALU E
C H AI N
96
Agenda
EUROPEAN UTILITIES BASICS - ELECTRICITY & GAS INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page
The energy value chain Climate change Renewables Valuation and drivers Appendix
97
Joint Implementation (JI) system for pollution reduction schemes in developed economies
Permits : Emission Reduction Units (ERUs)
C L I M AT E
CERs can be transferred into EUAs etc. but the total number of AAUs is fixed
98
EUAs
If Germanys actual emissions are higher than its assigned allocation it can purchase CERs from Brazil and transfer them into EUAs Total AE = total AAU
AE actual emissions AAU assigned allocation unit
CERs
AAU
AE
AE
AAU
Brazil
C H AN G E
Germany
C L I M AT E
99
Phase III: 2013-20 Includes new sectors such as airlines, aluminium, petrochemicals, etc.
Note other trading schemes will probably emerge globally, but may not necessarily be fungible with the EU ETS
C L I M AT E
100
Industrial abatement (N.B little willingness for this from industrials so far) Carbon capture and sequestration
C L I M AT E
101
Clean coal Capture via post-combustion, pre-combustion or oxyfuel combustion Storage in deep geological formations, deep oceans or mineral carbonates away from the atmosphere (although UN unlikely to approve ocean & carbonation) Alternatively the gas captured may be sold for various industrial uses Technology for large scale capture of CO2 already commercially available, problem is pipeline and regulation Capturing and compressing CO2 requires energy lowers overall thermal efficiency There are firm plans for around 8.3GW of CCS-type capacity 51mt/year of abatement Abatement cost estimate 28-30/t a function of:
Margin loss (CCS plant new build cost coal ex-CCS plant new build cost + energy loss) x CO2 avoided
C H AN G E
Estimate: 16-17/MWh output or 24/t of CO2 Transport cost Estimate: 2-2.5/t Storage cost Estimate: 3-3.5/t
102
C L I M AT E
We expect EUAs to trade at c. 27/t for Phase II and c. 33/t for Phase III
90 80 70 60 /t 50 Paper production UK Coal to Gas Switching, Summer UK Coal to Gas Switching, Winter German Lignite to Coal Switching
2008 abatement stack
C H AN G E
10 0 0
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates
C L I M AT E
20
40
60
80
100
120
103
Although windfall for low / zero CO2 emitting plants will remain
C L I M AT E
104
For more information, see our series All you ever wanted to know about carbon trading at www.JPMorgan.com/climatechange
C L I M AT E
105
NG has put forward 2 possible scenarios for plant operations: Summer-cold regime generators decide to run the units over the winter and make them unavailable over the summer, either on maintenance or moth-balled Year-round running regime generators will focus their running hours on the peak power price periods across the year, irrespective of season
106
C L I M AT E
Agenda
EUROPEAN UTILITIES BASICS - ELECTRICITY & GAS INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page
The energy value chain Climate change Renewables Valuation and drivers Appendix
107
Utilities
New entrants Autos Big oil New entrants Transportation Nuclear Hybrids / Plug-ins Wind
R E N E W AB L E S
Traditional
Mini hydro
New Tech
Biofuels
Solar
Marine
Offshore
PV
Thermal
Corporates
108
Renewables
Biomass combustion emits CO2, but unlike fossil fuel combustion, this has not been out of the carbon cycle for a long time
Energy security concerns By definition, renewable energy is not finite It allows a country to reduce its reliance on foreign imports of electricity/coal/oil/gas
R E N E W AB L E S
Hence governments have been very keen to encourage investment in renewable energy capacity
109
Tax credits levy charged on all suppliers unless they qualify for an exemption
e.g. Production Tax Credit in US, CCLECs in UK
110
EU renewables targets
EC proposals on member state targets for renewable energy as a proportion of all energy consumption EC proposals on member state targets for renewable energy as a proportion of all energy consumption
2005 RES Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU 27 23.3% 2.2% 9.4% 2.9% 6.1% 17.0% 18.0% 28.5% 10.3% 5.8% 6.9% 4.3% 3.1% 5.2% 34.9% 15.0% 0.9% 0.0% 2.4% 7.2% 20.5% 17.8% 6.7% 16.0% 8.7% 39.8% 1.3% 6.4%
Source: European Commission, J.P. Morgan estimates
2020 Target-RES 34% 13% 16% 13% 13% 30% 25% 38% 23% 18% 18% 13% 16% 17% 42% 23% 11% 10% 14% 15% 31% 24% 14% 25% 20% 49% 15% 20%
Basis points/year 71.3 72 44 67.3 46 86.7 46.7 63.3 84.7 81.3 74 58 86 78.7 47.3 53.3 67.3 66.7 77.3 52 70 41.3 48.7 60 75.3 61.3 91.3 90.8
% CAGR 2.6% 12.6% 3.6% 10.5% 5.2% 3.9% 2.2% 1.9% 5.5% 7.8% 6.6% 7.7% 11.6% 8.2% 1.2% 2.9% 18.2% 12.5% 5.0% 2.8% 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.7% 1.4% 17.7% 7.9%
The targets proposed on 23 Jan 08 were harsh but widely expected and the horizon is far out A proposal for tradeable Guarantee Of Origin (GOO) certificates would allow suppliers to meet their obligations with output from another country
Positive for suppliers and generators with pipeline in low tariff/high deliverability countries Negative for generators in green certificate/ low deliverability countries e.g. Italy and the UK
R E N E W AB L E S
111
Agenda
EUROPEAN UTILITIES BASICS - ELECTRICITY & GAS INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page
The energy value chain Climate change Renewables Valuation and drivers
2 97 107 112
Business drivers111 Valuation methods.... 116 Stock price drivers.117 Major M&A over the last decade121 Appendix 124
112
VALUATI O N
AND
DRIV E R S
113
AND
Development potential
Plant improvements - operational, environmental Life extensions Expansion via new plant including new regions
114
VALUATI O N
Regulatory relationship
Delivery Constructive dialogue Reliability Health and safety
Opex
IT management of inventory Sourcing at a low cost Optimal staffing
Capex
Purchasing at a low cost Pipeline delivery within budget and on time
DRIV E R S
Partly exogenous
Politics and type of regulation
VALUATI O N
AND
115
Pricing for margin vs. pricing for market share Superior customer service to peers Dual fuel contracts Well hedged exposure to wholesale power prices
DRIV E R S VALUATI O N AND
116
Load (lower fixed costs per MWh) Economies of scale in procurement Economies of scale in financing Reputation and brand name
Large customer base
VALUATI O N
AND
117
Valuation methods
Absolute Discounted cash flows (DCF)/ dividend discount model (DDM) utilities generate long term cash flows with high visibility Premium/ discount to RAB Sum of the parts (SOP) useful in diversified utilities
Multiples DCF/ DDM RAB-based
EV/EBITDA traditional measure, free cash flow (FCF) yield important given capex cycle
VALUATI O N
AND
118
VALUATI O N
AND
DRIV E R S
Opex and capex plans Short/ medium term targets M&A prospects Re-gearing potential, buy-backs, dividends
VALUATI O N
AND
120
EDF
Integrated electricity France Energy, mining, raw materials, petroleum, chemicals, waste disposal, engineering Germany and construction
Entergy Corp
US
3,173.554
100
UK
RWE AG
8,882.396
100
Generation and sale of electricity, engineering, oil and gas in the North Sea UK
E.ON AG
Electricity generation Germany and distribution Energy, mining, raw materials, waste, engineering and construction
13,814.937
100
22-Mar-02 27-May-02 Innogy Holdings Integrated energy 275,000km of gas grids, LNG storage facilities, telco and fiberoptic networks Distribution and supply of electricity, retail of electrical goods Owner and operator of nuclear power stations
UK
RWE AG
Germany
7,374.519
100
UK
17,441.637
100
18-Jun-02
29-Jul-02 SEEBOARD
UK
EDF
US
2,059.180
100
DRIV E R S
UK
Creditors
Creditors
UK
2,880.383
97.5
AND
UK
Investment, commercial and retail banking in Australia and around the world Australia
RWE AG
Integrated energy
Germany
14,849.188
100
VALUATI O N
Iberdrola SA
22,954.919
100
UK Ireland
Citigroup AI, GIC SI, HSBC, Infracapital Investment company UK Partners Scottish&South International energy UK ern Energy
10,602.933 2,142.542
100 100
Source: Dealogic
Union Fenosa 22-Sep-05 27-Jul-06 SA (22.07%) Endesa SA 18-Aug-06 18-Aug-06 (3.4%) Endesa SA 02-Apr-07 05-Oct-07 (46.05%)
Spain Spain
Spain
2,709.081 1,238.168
22.07 3.4
Spain
ENEL, Acciona
30-Jul-08
Union Fenosa SA
Spain
Integrated electricity Italy Supplies, stores, transmits and distributes natural Spain gas Electricity generation Italy and distribution Generates and distributes electricity and natural gas in Italy the Milan area
Savings bank
Spain
52,625.922
46.05
Spain
35,854.814
100
Integrated energy
Italy
EDF
EDF
Electric utility
France
3,301.580 30.462
Electricity and gas supply Integrated energy, water, waste and 17-Nov-99 07-Feb-01 EnBW (25.01%) telco
Italy
AEM SpA
Italy
5,721.018
100
Germany
EDF
Germany
2,484.538
25.01
DRIV E R S
Power and gas services, packaging, chemicals, logistic 17-Nov-99 17-Nov-99 VIAG AG (10%) and telcos
Germany
Veba AG
Generates and distributes electricity, gas, district heating Germany and water services Integrated emergy and water, oil exploration and production
Germany
1,638.738
10
Gas distribution
Germany
E.ON AG
Germany
International
4,043.791
40
AND
27-Feb-06
France
Suez SA
France
58,705.279
100
VALUATI O N
Integrated energy and water Generates and supplies electricity, distributes gas, provides cable TV services
Belgium
Water supply and treatment, electricity, Suez Lyonnaise waste management des Eaux and communication France
7,326.309
47.8
Belgium
Suez SA
Intermixt (4.56%)
Belgium
13,871.498
49.92
Source: Dealogic
ENEL SpA
Integrated electricity Italy Electricity generation and transmission, gas, oil, water, waste disposal, chemicals Germany and telecos
Slovak Republic
3,855.155
66
Russia
E.ON AG
Unified Energy System of Russia Integrated energy Unified Energy System of Russia Integrated energy (23.34%)
Russia
5,775.407
69.34
28-Feb-08
TGK-10 OAO
Electric utility
Russia
Fortum Oyj
National Grid
International energy Finland Electricity and gas networks. 2002 merger between Lattice Group and UK National Grid
Russia
5,067.361
100
100
27-Mar-07
EDP
Integrated electricity Portugal Electricity generation and transmission, gas, oil, water, waste disposal, chemicals Germany and telecos
US
2,330.000
100
Electric utility
US
E.ON AG
Airtricity
1,400.000
100
Source: Dealogic
123
Agenda
EUROPEAN UTILITIES BASICS - ELECTRICITY & GAS INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page
The energy value chain Climate change Renewables Valuation and drivers Appendix
Acronyms 125 Glossary 127 Abbreviations 128 Conversions 129 Metrics 130 Key websites 131 Bloomberg codes.. 132
124
Acronyms
AAU ACS AGR ARPU ARM BETTA BWR CCGT CCLEC CCS CDM CER CHP E&P ELV
AP P E N D I X
Assigned Allocation Unit average cold spell advanced gas cooled reactor average revenue per user adequacy reserve margin British electricity trading and transmission arrangements boiling water reactor combined cycle gas turbine climate change levy exemption certificate carbon capture and sequestration Clean Development Mechanism Certified Emission Reduction combined heat and power exploration and production emission limit value
EPR ERU ETS EUA GFR JI LCPD LDZ LFR LNG LRMC MSR NAP NETA
European pressurised reactor Emission Reduction Unit Emissions Trading Scheme EU Emission Allowance
gas fast breeder reactor
125
Acronyms
NISM NOC OCGT OFGEM OFWAT PPA PSCs PSO PTC PV PWR RAB RAV notification of inadequate system margin national oil company open cycle gas turbine British electricity and gas regulator England and Wales water regulator power purchase agreement public service contracts public service obligation production tax credit photovoltaic pressurised water reactor regulated asset base regulated asset value RC RCV RD ROC RPS SCWR SFR SRMC SYS TPA UCTE UNFCCC VHTR remaining capacity regulated capital value royal decree (Spain) renewable obligation certificate renewable portfolio standard
super-critical water reactor sodium fast breeder reactor
short run marginal cost seven year statement third party access Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity UN Framework Convention on Climate Control
very high temperature reactor
AP P E N D I X
126
Glossary
Adequacy reference margin = margin against the peak load +minimum reserve capacity British thermal unit a unit of heat equal to 252 calories, enough heat to raise the temperature of one pound of water 1F Load curve order in which different plants are called upon to run based on their variable operating cost Minimum reserve capacity = 5% of national generating capacity Margin against the peak load = peak load load at reference point Plant margin - amount by which the installed generation capacity exceeds the forecast peak demand Remaining capacity = reliably available capacity reference load Reliably available capacity = total generating capacity non-usable capacity maintenance and overhauls outages system services reserve Reserve margin amount of unused available capacity of an electric power system at peak load, expressed as a percentage of total capacity Tariff deficit the shortfall of regulated revenues from tariffs versus the revenues that would be realised by prevailing market prices Thermal efficiency - efficiency with which the energy content (measured in gross calorific value) of the input fuel is turned into electrical energy by the generating station
AP P E N D I X
Thermal generation electricity production using a steam-driven turbine Windfall profits additional profits due to free CO2 allocations
127
Abbreviations
b or bbl cf bcm t Mcf Mt boe kboe kb toe Mtoe Btoe or Gtoe Btu KW MW GW TW MWh /y or /a /d
AP P E N D I X
barrel cubic feet billion cubic metres metric tonne million cubic feet million tonnes barrel of oil equivalent thousand boe thousand barrels tonne of oil equivalent million tonnes of oil equivalent billion tonnes of oil equivalent British thermal unit kilowatt megawatt gigawatt terrawatt megawatt hours per year per day
128
Conversions
To: From: kWh MWh therm mmbtu kJ GJ kcal Gcal ft3 bcf m3 bcm boe mboe toe mtoe tce mtce tonne Power kWh MWh 1 0.001 1,000 1 29.31 0.0293 293.07 0.293 0.000278 2.778E-07 277.8 0.2778 0.00116 0.000001163 1163 1.163 0.3 0.0003 300,000,000 300,000 11.0 0.011 11,000,000,000 11,000,000 1,700 1.7 1,700,000,000 1,700,000 12,700 12.7 12,700,000,000 12,700,000 7,100 7.1 7,100,000,000 7,100,000 14,000 14 Therms therm mmbtu 0.0341 0.00341 34.12 3.412 1 0.1 10 1 0.00000948 9.478E-07 9.48 0.948 0.00003968 0.000003968 39.68 3.968 0.0104 0.00104 10,400,000 1,040,000 0.367 0.0367 3.67E+08 36,700,000 60 6 60,000,000 6,000,000 425 42.5 425,000,000 42,500,000 250 25 250,000,000 25,000,000 520 52 Joules kJ 3,600 3,600,000 105,506 1,055,060 1 1,000,000 4.19 4,186,800 1,097 1.09726E+12 38722 3.8722E+13 6,300,000 6.3E+12 45,000,000 4.5E+13 26,000,000 2.6E+13 55,000,000 GJ 0.0036 3.6 0.1055 1.0551 0.000001 1 4.1868E-06 4.19 0.00109726 1,097,260 0.0387 38,722,000 6.3 6,300,000 45 45,000,000 26 26,000,000 55 Calories kcal 860 859,845 25,200 252,000 0.2388 238,800 1 1,000,000 262 2.62E+11 9,249 9.249E+12 1,500,000 1.5E+12 11,000,000 1.1E+13 6,300,000 6.3E+12 13,000,000 Gcal ft3 0.00086 3.3 0.8598 3,300 0.0252 96.2 0.252 962 2.388E-07 0.0091 0.2388 9,100 0.000001 0.0038 1 3,800 0.00026 1 262,000 1,000,000,000 0.00925 35.29 9,249,000 35,290,000,000 1.5 5600 1,500,000 5,600,000,000 11 42000 11,000,000 42,000,000,000 6.3 24500 6,300,000 24,500,000,000 13 52,000 Natural gas bcf m3 3.3E-09 0.093 0.0000033 93 9.62E-08 2.72 0.000000962 27.2 9.1E-12 0.000026 0.0000091 26 3.8E-12 0.00011 0.0000038 110 0.000000001 0.0283 1 28,340,000 3.529E-08 1 35.29 1,000,000,000 0.0000056 160 5.6 160,000,000 0.000042 1200 42 1200000000 0.0000245 700 24.5 700,000,000 0.000052 1,400 bcm 9.3E-11 0.000000093 2.72E-09 2.72E-08 2.6E-14 0.000000026 1.1E-13 0.00000011 2.834E-11 0.0283 0.000000001 1 0.00000016 0.16 0.0000012 1.2 0.0000007 0.7 0.0000014 boe 0.00059 0.59 0.17 1.7 0.00000016 0.16 0.00000066 0.66 0.00017 170,000 0.0061 6,100,000 1 1,000,000 7.5 7,500,000 4.3 4,300,000 8.9 Oil mboe toe 5.9E-10 0.00008 0.00000059 0.08 0.00000017 0.0024 0.0000017 0.024 1.6E-13 0.00000016 0.00000016 0.16 6.6E-13 0.000000093 0.00000066 0.093 1.7E-10 0.000024 0.17 24,000 6.1E-09 0.00083 6.1 830,000 0.000001 0.14 1 140,000 0.0000075 1 7.5 1,000,000 0.0000043 0.6 4.3 600,000 0.0000089 1.2 mtoe 8E-11 0.00000008 2.4E-09 0.000000024 1.6E-13 0.00000016 9.3E-14 0.000000093 2.4E-11 0.024 8.3E-10 0.83 0.00000014 0.14 0.000001 1 0.0000006 0.6 0.0000012 Coal tce 0.00014 0.14 0.004 0.04 0.000000038 0.038 0.00000016 0.16 0.000042 42,000 0.0015 1,500,000 0.23 230,000 1.7 1,700,000 1 1,000,000 1.9 LNG mtce 1.4E-10 0.00000014 0.000000004 0.00000004 3.8E-14 0.000000038 1.6E-13 0.00000016 4.2E-11 0.042 1.5E-09 1.5 0.00000023 0.23 0.0000017 1.7 0.000001 1 0.0000019 tonne 0.000066 0.066 0.0019 0.019 0.000000018 0.018 0.000000076 0.076 0.00002 20,000 0.00071 710,000 0.1 100,000 0.8 800,000 0.5 500,000 1
129
Load factor =
Load factor 100% Power plants sometimes have technical problems and have to shut down
AP P E N D I X
The wholesale price may be too low for it to be economical to run the plant
130
Key websites
www.Dti.gov.uk/energy/statistics/index.html www.Iea.org www.Eia.doe.gov
System adequacy
www.UCTE.org www.Nordel.org www.Nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/SYS/
Technology
www.Alstom.com www.Powergeneration.siemens.com www.Gepower.com www.Areva.com/servlet/finance/investorrelations/arevatechnicaldays-en.html www.Vestas.com
EU
http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/energy/electricity/benchmarking/index_en.htm http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/climate_action.htm
AP P E N D I X
131
Bloomberg codes
SX6P Index (Dow Jones Stoxx European Utilities index) ERIXP Index (renewable energy index)
EPWR (European electricity prices) PWNX (French electricity prices) ELEU (UK electricity prices) ELGE (German electricity prices) ELNF (Nordpool electricity prices)
EGAS (European gas prices) UGAS (UK gas prices) CLCL (global coal prices) EMIT (EU emission allowances)
AP P E N D I X
132
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] The analyst or analysts teams coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe. Coverage Universe: Chris Rogers: British Energy (BGY.L), CEZ (CEZP.PR), Centrica (CNA.L), E.ON (EONGn.DE), EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.LS), EEN (EEN.PA), Fortum (FUM1V.HE), Iberdrola Renovables (IBR.MC), National Grid (NG.L), Pennon (PNN.L), RWE (RWEG.F), Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE.L), Severn Trent (SVT.L), United Utilities (UU.L), Veolia Environnement (VIE.PA) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2008
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of NASD/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on any securities recommended herein. Research is available at http://www.morganmarkets.com , or you can contact the analyst named on the front of this note or your J.P. Morgan representative. Analysts Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking. Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US affiliates of JPMSI, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMSI, and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
AP P E N D I X
133
Other Disclosures J.P. Morgan is the global brand name for J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. (JPMSI) and its non-US affiliates worldwide. Options related research: If the information contained herein regards options related research, such information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporations Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCCs website at http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf. Legal Entities Disclosures U.S.: JPMSI is a member of NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. J.P. Morgan Futures Inc. is a member of the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of FDIC and is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. U.K.: J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. (JPMSL) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. 2711006. Registered Office 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the FSB. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Korea: J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul branch, is regulated by the Korea Financial Supervisory Service. Australia: J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (ABN 52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No: 238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is a Market Participant with the ASX and regulated by ASIC. Taiwan: J.P.Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and The Stock Exchange, Mumbai and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. Thailand: JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a member of the Philippine Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Brazil: Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero is a member of the Mexican Stock Exchange and authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [mica (p) 207/01/2008 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R] which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore) which is regulated by the MAS. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-x) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd and is licensed as a dealer by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Country and Region Specific Disclosures U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by JPMSL. Investment research issued by JPMSL has been prepared in accordance with JPMSLs Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research which outline the effective organisational and administrative arrangements set up within JPMSL for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to research recommendations, including information barriers, and can be found at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pdfdoc/research/ConflictManagementPolicy.pdf. This report has been issued in the U.K. only Order 2005 to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other EEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction Germany: This material is distributed in Germany by J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. Frankfurt Branch and
AP P E N D I X
134
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Frankfurt Branch who are regulated by the Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. Australia: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in Australia to wholesale clients only. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to retail clients. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside Australia without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. For the purposes of this paragraph the terms wholesale client and retail client have the meanings given to them in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Hong Kong: The 1% ownership disclosure as of the previous month end satisfies the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for persons licensed by or registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. (For research published within the first ten days of the month, the disclosure may be based on the month end data from two months prior.) J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited is the liquidity provider for derivative warrants issued by J.P. Morgan International Derivatives Ltd and listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. An updated list can be found on HKEx website: http://www.hkex.com.hk/prod/dw/Lp.htm. Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur due to a change in the price of the shares in the case of share trading, and that a loss may occur due to the exchange rate in the case of foreign share trading. In the case of share trading, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., will be receiving a brokerage fee and consumption tax (shouhizei) calculated by multiplying the executed price by the commission rate which was individually agreed between JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., and the customer in advance. Financial Instruments Firms: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., Kanto Local Finance Bureau (kinsho) No. [82] Participating Association / Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Korea: This report may have been edited or contributed to from time to time by affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul branch. Singapore: JPMSI and/or its affiliates may have a holding in any of the securities discussed in this report; for securities where the holding is 1% or greater, the specific holding is disclosed in the Important Disclosures section above. India: For private circulation only, not for sale. Pakistan: For private circulation only, not for sale. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to members of "the public" as determined in accordance with section 3 of the Securities Act 1978. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside New Zealand without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. General: Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to JPMSI and/or its affiliates and the analysts involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the research. All pricing is as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. JPMSI distributes in the U.S. research published by non-U.S. affiliates and accepts responsibility for its contents. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a J.P. Morgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. Other Disclosures last revised September 29, 2008. Copyright 2008 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.