Climate Change

Climate Change: Quick Facts

1.The earth s climate is regulated largely by the biogeochemical process know as the carbon cycle. The global carbon cycle circulates hundreds of billions of tons of carbon annually among various terrestrial, oceanic and atmospheric sources. Carbon in the atmosphere in the form of CO2, is the most abundant of several trace gases that are responsible for the greenhouse effect.

2. The greenhouse effect is a natural process responsible for keeping the earth warmer than it otherwise would be if all the heat generated by solar energy hitting the earth''s surface were reradiated back into space. It is the layer of CO2 and other Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in the upper atmosphere which trap the reradiating heat and make the earth approximately 32C warmer than it otherwise would be.

3.The warming of the earth by the greenhouse effect was a critical factor in the evolution of life on the planet. The greenhouse effect is responsible for the earth being a water rather than an ice planet. All living things depend on specific climatic environments to thrive. Many species cannot survive outside a rather narrow set of climate conditions which are significantly influenced by the greenhouse effect.

4.The atmospheric concentration of C02 has changed considerably over the long history of the planet, but has been fairly stable over the last 400,000 years, remaining below 300 ppm over this period. Ever since the rise of human civilizations some 5000-6000 years ago, and up to about 1800, atmospheric C02 levels fluctuated within an even narrower range of 250-290 ppm.

5. Since the beginning of the industrial period, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 275

ppm, atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose to 375 ppm by 2000, an increase of over 30%.

6. Human use of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution (largely coal,oil and natural gas) is the primary cause of this increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Land clearing was the most important factor prior to about 1900, and remains the second largest driver of CO2 increases after fossil fuels.

7. Scientists overwhelmingly agree that these well established changes in GHG production by humans will affect global climate. It is less clear precisely what changes in climate will occur due to projected increases in GHG levels over the current century. The majority of scientists project several major effects: a global temperature increase of from 1 to 5 degrees C, increased precipitation, and less stable weather patterns.

8. Continued human-induced emission of GHGs at the current rate will lead to a level of atmospheric CO2 concentration which is at least 2 to 3 times the preindustrial level by 2100. Even higher emission rates are projected over future decades. Such increases will result in dramatic climate changes that would adversely affect all human societies on the planet, in addition to numerous plant and animal species.

9. Some of the impacts associated with different levels of climate change include: reduction of many crop yields, drying of tropical soils, loss of coastline infrastructure due to a rising sea level, increased spread of insect borne diseases as their ranges vary, significant biodiversity loss due to changing habitat and climate conditions, new and more frequent disease outbreaks in domestic and farm animals more frequent and severe storms, more forest fires, loss of coral reefs, and more flooding, among other impacts.

10. How serious these climate induced changes are will depend on how much GHGs we continue to emit. Scientists agree that the more GHGs emitted the more serious and costly the damages will be.

11. Unchecked, increased concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere could alter the global carbon cycle irrevocably. If this complex yet robust global biogeochemical cycle is altered in this way, the impact on human civilization would be catastrophic, as new global weather patterns would be established, which are likely to be far less suitable to life as we know it.

What Scale Relevant Lessons Should We Take From the Climate Change Story?

This section covers:

   

Human economic activities are now capable of altering fundamental global systems that affect all life on the planet The impact of human economic activities on global systems can have a long delay Unsustainable activity is dangerous and irresponsible Prevention of global scale problems is preferable to solving them

Sustainable practices are only likely to occur with clear targets for sustainable scale

Human Economic Activities Alter Global Systems It is a remarkable and unprecedented event in the history of a planet when a single species alters a planetary system that is responsible for many of the life-support systems of the planet. This is precisely what has happened with the growth of human economic activities over the past 150 years.

This simple fact should give the world s nations and peoples pause for reflection on the implications of such an event. This fact reflects both the success of humanity, and the possible source of its unintended selfdestruction.

The collapse of civilizations seems to rest on a civilization s inability to alter some of the beliefs and practices that led to their original success1. This insight suggests radical changes are required in how we view economic growth and its relationship to the biophysical limits of global ecosystems. Sustainable scale presents an alternative perspective.

Temporal Disconnects Obscure the Sustainable Scale Problem for Climate Greenhouse gases have the characteristic of enduring for many decades in the earth s atmosphere, and as their concentrations accumulate the heat-trapping qualities of these gases also accumulate over time. There is a significant temporal disconnect between the activities involved in emitting the gases and their long term impact on climate stability.

There is an even longer disconnect between the responsible activities and the affects of climate change on the well-being of most life on the planet. The anthropogenic emissions in the 1850 s are responsible for the climate change that is now being detected. These climate changes will continue into the foreseeable future, and their full impact will be felt by future generations. These temporal disconnects make it difficult for humans to grasp the full implications of their actions.

Unsustainable Scale is Both Irresponsible and Dangerous Economic throughput that exceeds the regenerative capacities of global life-support systems is unsustainable. This means these activities are actually creating costs that will inevitably exceed any possible short term benefits that may ensue from these activities. But unfortunately, we do not accurately account for these ecological and life-support costs with the same rigour and obsessive precision that we record

financial costs.

Unsustainable activities mean that a threshold is crossed beyond which the ecological services provided by nature (e.g. climate stability) will decline (see Sustainable Or Unsustainable). The greater the decline the less service will be available and eventually it will, in theory, decline to zero. While it is doubtful that even human activities can bring us to this undesirable point (as there is only so much carbon to circulate), there is little doubt that we are headed in this direction and that the consequences will be dire.

Because of the dangers involved, there is a considerable moral imperative to manage our economic activities so that we respect sustainable scale.

Transition to Prevention Needed We are beginning to learn that end of pipe solutions to local pollution problems are more costly and difficult to implement than redesigning the operation to not emit the pollution in the first place. This approach is also needed in dealing with global scale issues of sustainability.

Becoming dependent on activities that are predictably unsustainable creates enormous financial, ecological and political difficulties that are extremely difficult to disentangle. The complexities of the climate issue demonstrate what might have been avoided if, for example, the world listened to Arhenius warnings in the late 1800 s about the dangers of fossil fuel combustion (although he was not aware of the even greater impact at the time of human land use practices).

The precautionary principle is a critical perspective to incorporate into a wide variety of human economic activities that have the potential to exceed sustainable scale.

Sustainable Scale Perspective Essential While reasonable arguments can be made that sustainable scale for greenhouse gas emissions was exceeded in the 1850 s, this point is debatable. The main point here is that attempting to identify a sustainable scale for human activities is essential to human well-being.

A sustainable scale perspective requires that we ask a series of questions about our activities and their long

term consequences, ensuring that the costs incurred are less than the benefits. It requires that we review the ecological consequences of our activities, as well as their impact on current and future generations of humans and other living creatures.

An international agreement on climate change will inevitably fail humanity if does not set an emission target that is clearly within sustainable scale.

Diamond, J. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Viking Press, New York, 2005.

What Additional Scale Relevant Policies Are Required?

    Understanding the Problem from a Scale Perspective Determining Optimal Scale for Climate Change Scale Relevant Policies Mobilizing Political Will

Understanding The Problem from a Scale Perspective

Merits of a Scale Perspective for Climate Change The scale perspective regarding climate change can be summarized as follows:

 

Climate stability is a critical ecosystem function relevant to human well-being Current concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases are above levels we know to be sustainable from the perspective of climate stability relevant to human well-being Climate stability is threatened by the historical and continued emissions of greenhouse gases Reducing human induced greenhouse gas emissions to levels known to be sustainable will require a radical reorganization of human energy use and economic activities on a global level.

It is clear that radical reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to reduce the negative consequences of changes in climate stability. These changes have already begun and

action is needed to reduce their unpredictable and unwanted consequences. Sustainable scale for climate stability will likely require greenhouse gas concentrations no higher than 300 ppm. Any levels higher than this will lead to a modification of climate stability; the higher the levels the more rapid and unpredictable the changes.

The IPCC low risk scenario (with a target of 450 ppm) is recognition that returning to a sustainable level of emissions may be extremely difficult and that the most we can hope for is to reduce concentrations to slow the pace of global climate change. This approach may have a pragmatic flavour, but we should be clear that it likely means an unsustainable scale for climate stability, and imposes costs on future generations that are incalculable. Pragmatism and justice would seem to be in conflict.

What is Optimal Scale for Climate Change? Sustainable scale as a concept tells us what relationship is possible between economic throughput and critical ecosystem functioning, based on basic laws of science. In the case of climate change, the evidence indicates that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations above 300 ppm begin to trigger changes in global climate stability.

This conclusion does not mean that 300 ppm is necessarily the level that is most desirable from a perspective of human well-being. The level of economic throughput that provides the greatest overall benefits is referred to asOptimal Scale (see Sustainable Scale). Optimal scale identifies the level of economic throughput that is mostdesirable: it is that level of economic throughout, within the sustainable range, where total benefits exceed total costs.

Determining Optimal Scale for Climate Stability Determining what constitutes sustainable scale is based on laws of science. Determining optimal scale begins with these scientifically determined limitations, and integrates human concerns regarding safety, values regarding justice for current and future generations of humans and other living creatures, and the level of material well-being we desire (see Optimal Scale in Sustainable Scale).

Inevitably, there are differing views on these soico-political issues, as well as different approaches to how such decisions should be made (some refs here). A scale perspective emphasizes that however these socio-political differences are resolved they must remain within a sustainable range determined by the laws of science, that is, within a level of economic throughput that does not exceed the ecosystems capacity to continue providing critical lifesupport services (in this case climate stability).

From a risk management perspective (and regardless of how the other socio-political issues are resolved), it is desirable and prudent to target a level of atmospheric concentrations somewhat below the level we suspect to be maximum sustainable scale.

For example, if our best science informs us that 300 ppm is indeed the maximum sustainable scale, this would not mean that economic throughput should target this level of greenhouse gas concentration. A policy target that is just on the borderline between sustainable and unsustainable scale has risks associated with it: some unpredictable event (e.g. solar variability, major volcanic eruptions, changes in thermohaline circulation, etc.) could move global climate to an unsustainable range.

In terms of an optimal scale for climate stability, the level of economic throughput must result in an atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases somewhere below the 300 ppm level. How much lower, is an issue of risk management. Do we regard climate disruption or living with less energy as presenting the greater risk?

Scale Relevant Solutions for Climate Stability     Target Optimal Scale as the Policy Priority Employ Multiple Approaches to Achieve Optimal Scale Ensure a Global Enforcement Mechanism Exists Apply Adaptive Management Principles

Target Optimal Scale as the Policy Priority

Get the Target Right Optimal scale is nothing more than the most desirable level of sustainable scale. To accept any target that is not sustainable is to be responsible for all the consequences associated with unsustainable practices in the case of climate, the inevitable degradation of the climate stability that humans and many species depend on for their well-being, and the eventual demise of human civilization.

An optimal scale of less than 300 ppm may or may not be a technically achievable level of greenhouse gas throughput. Climate impacts are already occurring (see Climate Change).

ustice to future generations (of all species) requires that we at least attempt to ensure our economic throughput is sustainable. At the very least, the closer we can come to the ideal of optimal scale, the longer the historical levels of climate stability will be available to maintain our life-support systems.

Sustainability vs Politics Attempting to achieve a sustainable level of greenhouse gas emissions has not characterized the formal proceedings of the Kyoto Protocol. Issues of responsibility for past and future emissions; who is more or less able to afford mitigation measures; who might gain or lose if emissions are greatly reduced; as well as powerful financial interests in the status quo, have collectively conspired to give precedence to immediate economic concerns about the implications of greenhouse gas reductions relative to the longer term consequences of unsustainable practices.

The major obstacles to achieving optimal scale are political; there is not even agreement that a sustainable level of emissions is a desirable target. In challenging this short-sighted and dangerous perspective it is important to not loose sight of the consequences unsustainable practices mean the inevitable collapse of human civilization as we know it in the long run.

There are also considerably more immediate consequences that will impose severe costs on much of the earths biosphere, and therefore on economic activity as well.1 Very narrow financial interests appear to be influencing the consequences for everyone, including the majority of economic interests. This is both unsustainable and unjust in terms of the responsibilities we all share to maintain the global commons.

Employ Multiple Approaches to Achieve Optimal Scale

Kyoto Solutions Better than Kyoto Targets The Kyoto targets are lacking in terms of achieving sustainable scale, but the Protocol does contain a variety of useful solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The policies and instruments identified by Kyoto have the potential to achieve sustainable scale if they are designed to reach that goal. Currently, they are designed to achieve a much more modest target.

Technical and Policy Solutions to Achieving Optimal Scale

The political obstacles to achieving optimal scale are paramount; there are also a number of technical and economic hurdles. Overcoming these technical and economic obstacles will put additional pressures on the political system to achieve optimal scale. There are a variety of policy instruments available that could be used to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and achieve optimal scale. These include:

        

Elimination of Perverse Subsidies on Fossil Fuels Pollution Quotas on GHG Emissions Cap and Trade Permits for GHG Carbon Taxes and Taxes on other GHG Emissions True Cost Pricing Depletion Quotas on Fossil Fuels Better Land Use Policies Conversion to Renewable Energy Sustainable Population Policies

Elimination of Perverse Subsidies on Fossil Fuel Sources The first and most obvious policy recommendation for greenhouse gas reduction is the elimination of harmful subsidies on fossil fuels. Both direct and indirect subsidies occur. Direct subsidies cover such items as exploration and drilling activities, and various tax relief schemes. Indirect subsidies include the many externalized costs caused by fossil fuels.

Various estimates place the direct fossil fuel subsidies at between $235 and $300 billion annually.2 Many of these subsidies go to some of the largest and most profitable corporations in the world. Indirect subsidies are more difficult to estimate, but are likely to be even greater. Together these enormous subsidies act to make fossil fuels more economically competitive compared to renewable energy sources, encourages further investment in fossil based energy, and discourages badly needed investment in renewable energy sources. Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocol identifies the need for reducing these perverse subsidies.

Pollution Quotas on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Since the atmosphere has a limited ability to absorb excess greenhouse gases, the simplest and most direct policy to address climate change is to set a limit or quota (see Supportive Public Policies) on the total global emissions of CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide and other greenhouse gases. Reduced emissions will eventually result in an atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases that is sustainable.

An international agreement such as the Kyoto protocol is necessary to set and enforce sustainable emission limits. Kyoto has set a limit, but its reduction target of 5% below 1990 levels by 2012 pales in comparison with the 80-90% reduction identified by the IPCC to stabilize CO2 levels at 450ppm. Even this target is unlikely to be sustainable.

A scale analysis suggests that emission levels of 54 Megatons of C02 or less, for example, are required to maintain a sustainable level of throughput (see What Levels of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Sustainable? in Scale Problem). If an emission quota system is used, it should set a target based on what the best available evidence indicates is a sustainable level, regardless of the difficulties involved.

Emission Quotas and Fairness There are major international disagreements regarding the basis for allocating emission quotas. If based on historical levels then previously high levels of developed countries would remain high, and developing countries will find this inequitable and restrictive of their future development options.

Some stakeholders in developing countries believe that emission quotas should be allocated based on population. In their view, this remedies the bias in favor of already developed countries, and rests on the moral argument that each human being is entitled to the same amount of the atmospheric commons.

Large and rapidly developing countries such as China, India, and Brazil have not joined the Kyoto protocol, in part, because this issue of fair allocation of emission quotas has not been resolved. This position has provided the United States with an argument to refuse to join, citing the lack of inclusion of these high emitting developing countries as a flaw in the agreement.

Cap and Trade Permits for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Once emission quotas are established, a system which allows trading of emission permits can be a very effective method of efficiently maintaining emissions within the overall limit established

by the quota. There are various approaches to emission trading permits. What is required for ensuring emissions remain within a specified quota is a cap and trade system, which works by issuing or selling emission quotas as permits to each individual, industry, country, etc (see Supportive Public Policies) .

Then each permit holder is allowed to trade or sell their permit if they need more or less permits for their emission activities. Those who emit less than their permit allows may sell their permits to those who need permission to emit more. The advantage of the cap-trade method is that it allows the maximum level of freedom by the individual emitters, while maintaining an overall quota of global emissions. This approach has been used very effectively and efficiently in both the US and Europe for pollutants which cause acid rain.

There is an emerging market for carbon emissions trading. The World Bank and others are devising a carbon trading system for Kyoto Signatory nations. The EU has established a cap and trade system, several US states have designed a cap and trade system, and the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) has set up a commodity market which allows for trading CO2 emissions.

Depletion Quotas on Fossil Fuels A more direct approach to reducing some greenhouse gases is to put depletion quotas on the extraction of fossil fuels (see Supportive Public Policies). Depletion quotas are identical to emission quotas except they apply to extraction rather than emissions. Cap and trade permits could also work with depletion quotas. Depletion quotas can be administratively more efficient because there are fewer sources of extraction than emission.

However, this approach is often more difficult politically because sources of extraction are generally owned properties, and the emission sinks are part of the commons. This problem may be overcome by considering the rights involved in ownership as a bundle of rights, and the depletion quota is only affecting one stick in the bundle, namely the amount of material that may be extracted per annum. All other ownership rights can remain intact.

Carbon Taxes and Taxes on other Greenhouse Gas Emissions A parallel approach to emission quotas is to tax greenhouse gas emissions. Generally, the higher the tax the greater the reduction of the activity taxed. A high carbon tax, for example, would reduce consumption of fossil fuels.

However, studies indicate that the change in demand for fossil fuels is relatively inelastic or inflexible. Therefore a large carbon tax increase would be needed to have an impact on carbon emissions. Nevertheless it would generate a tremendous amount of public revenue, and may be more politically feasible than emission quotas on CO2 in the near term.

Some European countries like Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and UK have already implemented some carbon taxes.

A major downside of a carbon tax is that it targets price and not quantity where as ecosystems respond to quantity rather than price. The important target is greenhouse gas concentrations, and to ensure sustainable levels, the carbon taxes would need frequent adjustments. On the other hand, a carbon tax on greenhouse gas emissions would be a very instructive way to inform consumers about the need to modify their behaviors.

True-Cost Pricing or Pigouvian Taxes One of the justifications for a carbon or other greenhouse gas tax is so products reflect their true costs to the environment. Incorporating externalized costs into the prices of products was first proposed by economist AC Pigou, so pollution taxes are often called Pigouvian taxes. If prices do not include external costs, consumers are given false price signals, and therefore over consume polluting products, contributing further to scale problems.

Better Land Use Policies

Some common land use practices such as deforestation, urban sprawl, and certain agricultural practices, are major emitters of greenhouse gases. Modifying these practices can therefore make a significant contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Practices which would lead to reduced emission include:

Urban design that reduces sprawl and supports easy carfree access to worklive-play areas Preservation of existing carbon pools through such practices as forest reserves, reduced deforestation, forest management, alternative harvest practices, fire and pest protection Management for carbon storage through afforestation, reforestation, agroforestry, enhanced natural regeneration, re-vegetation of degraded lands, tillage and other agricultural practices to increase soil carbon, and management of forest products to increase in-use lifetimes Management for carbon substitution by using biomass to replace durable energyintensive low-carbon content materials (e.g. bricks, cement, steel, plastic), and to replace fossil fuels with sustainably-grown bioenergy feedstocks Reduction of commercial herds (cattle, sheep, etc)

Land use change has contributed substantially to the addition of carbon to the atmosphere since 1850. Deforestation increases the CO2 level of the atmosphere by reducing the amount of plants absorbing CO2. Deforestation occurs where land is cleared for agriculture and grazing of livestock. Clear cutting and other unsustainable forest practices for timber may drastically reduce tree cover.

Human urbanization, industrial development, and sprawl, including road construction and maintenance adds to the reduction of plant cover. Creation of reservoirs for water supplies and recreation often floods green areas, and may increase methane production. Pollution as well as mineral, gas, and oil extraction also destroy habitat. One positive note is the increased productivity of farms in industrial countries has allowed some regrowth of forests. Some

industrial nations have more forest cover than 100 years ago.

Carbon Sequestration Techniques Improving land use practices would reduce greenhouse gas emissions partly by increasing carbon sequestration (e.g. through reforestation). Natural carbon sequestration has been decreasing as a result of human activities, and therefore could be increased by reversing these activities. (e.g. reforestration).

In addition, a variety of innovative technologies are being explored to artificially increase carbon sequestration in order to allow continued use of fossil fuels.3 However, these technologies are not yet developed and we should not rely on them to provide appreciably higher levels of carbon sequestration than can be achieved by regeneration of natural sequestration processes.

Conversion to Renewable Energy A transition is needed from the heavy global reliance on fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. A variety of renewable sources are available now and conversion is beginning, especially in some European countries. But the continuing government support of fossil fuel subsidies is a major impediment to the further development and implementation of these technologies.

Analyses of these alternatives at least raises the question as to whether the current energy demands of the global economy can be met with such a transition. This question indicates that some major global policy decisions regarding the broader issue of energy consumption, arises out of the climate debate, and is yet to be addressed (see Energy).

Sustainable Population Policies The projected 50% increase in global population over the current century indicates that enormous efforts will be required to achieve sustainable scale with regard to climate, as well as many other issues. The total ecological impact of human activities is a function of consumption levels, the efficiency and toxic quality of the technologies used, and the number of people doing the consuming (see The IPAT Equation). Policies which support smaller families will assist technological and political solutions to the climate problem (see Population).

Summary of a Sustainable Scale Perspective on Climate Change A scale perspective requires us to ask what level of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

exceeds sustainable scale, and triggers the disruption of the ecosystems capacities to continue providing critical life-support services. Our knowledge regarding climate dynamics and critical ecosystem functions may not be complete, but neither is our ignorance.

We know enough to know we are in trouble: we are currently beyond what we know historically to be safe emission limits; we know climate stability is currently affected, and we know climate problems will get considerably worse.

The big questions are whether we know how to get out of trouble, and whether we have the will to do so. While we are missing information that might be desirable, this information is not necessary to establish sound and adaptable policies regarding sustainable scale for climate change (see above Scale Relevant Solutions for Climate Stability).

For more details see Climate Change: Quick Facts

References

www.pewclimate.org (conduct a site search for "economic costs of climate change")

www.edie.net/news/news_story.asp?id=10221&channel=0 www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4798063 www.earth-policy.org/Books/Epr/Epr1_ss14.htm Price of Power, New Economics Foundation, 2004. www.neweconomics.org , see Publications
3 2

For example, Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum, www.cslforum.org

Will The Proposed Solution (the Kyoto Protocol) Achieve Sustainable Scale?

The Kyoto Protocol Is An Important But Inadequate Response to Climate Change The Kyoto Protocol1 was ratified by 128 nations in February 2005. It calls

for a reduction of CO2 emissions by the year 2012, at the latest, to a level 5.2% below that of 1990. Various countries have agreed to different targets in order to meet this overall objective.

There are several outstanding difficulties with the current Kyoto process:
    The Kyoto targets may not be achievable The Kyoto targets, even if achieved, will not result in a sustainable level of greenhouse gas emissions Key nations have not yet signed on to the Protocol We may be running out of time to avoid serious disasters.

The Kyoto Targets May Not Be Achievable

Modest Targets Overwhelmed by Higher Emissions A 5.2% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions relative to 1990 levels might appear to be a modest target. It may have been achievable if the process began in 1990. The difficulty is that global levels of greenhouse gas emissions have risen significantly since then, by approximately 1% per year or some 15%.

This makes the reductions necessary by individual countries much more difficult to achieve. Some countries began voluntary efforts to reduce their emissions shortly after agreeing to Kyoto, even though the Protocol was not yet officially in effect. Other countries decided to wait until formal ratification occurred and consequently will have much greater difficulty in reaching their targets.

Individual Successes Overwhelmed by Economic Growth To be sure, there have been significant voluntary efforts by many individual countries and businesses to reduce their greenhouse gas emission over the last decade. China, for example, has cut or eliminated its subsidies to its domestic coal industry. BP quickly achieved its voluntary target of reducing its own greenhouse gas emissions.

These and many other individual efforts demonstrate what is possible once a commitment is made to emissions reduction. However, these increased energy efficiencies combined with continued economic growth have a net result of overall growth in greenhouse gas emissions.

Replacement Technologies Available But Untested on a Large Scale There are also a variety of both new and old technologies being explored that may contribute to reductions in greenhouse gases (see Sustainable Business Practices). Older technologies such as wind turbines and photovoltaics are still being improved and we are still learning about their relative strengths and weaknesses.

For new technologies, such as hydrogen or safe nuclear energy systems, there are many obstacles to overcome before they could be widely adapted (see Energy). Whatever the potential for these new technologies, it will not be known until they are tried and tested in different conditions over an extended period of time.

Large scale testing of several of these alternatives is needed and deserves much more support than they are currently getting. In the meantime, government support for testing these new technologies remain a small portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars still spent on fossil fuel subsidies annually.

Climate Change Complexity There are several greenhouse gases currently in use, each associated with a different industrial process, with a different heat retention factor, and of different importance to different countries. And there are many human activities that involve the release of these gases, ranging from food production, transportation, land use patterns and industrial processes, to name just a few. In addition, the impact of anticipated climate

change will affect different nations in very different ways, regardless of their own levels of emission. These and other factors make the climate issue extremely complex from both the perspective of understanding the science involved, and in meeting the national interests of the parties at the negotiating table. In contrast, dealing with the atmospheric ozone depletion issue was relatively simple (see Ozone).

Political Will There are very powerful vested interests actively working to maintain the status quo regarding the dominance of fossil fuels as the global energy source. National governments are aggressively lobbied to continue supporting fossil fuels. It is questionable whether the political will exists in some key nations to take the climate issue seriously, and move away from these flexible but dangerous sources of energy. What the confluence of these factors will be in achieving the Kyoto targets by 2012 remains to be seen.

The Kyoto Targets Are Inadequate for Sustainable Emissions

Kyoto as a Starter Program It is acknowledged even by those directly involved in setting the Kyoto targets that the targets are inadequate for achieving levels of greenhouse gas emissions that are acceptable for the long run. These initial Kyoto targets are designed to begin the process of learning how to reduce the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases.

This modest goal is recognition of the enormous challenges we face in rethinking the role that energy plays in our civilization, and how both developed and developing countries need to adjust to the newly emerging realities.

Many participants and observers of the Kyoto process anticipate that once the current Protocol is ratified and formally adopted, a new round of negotiations will begin to set new targets for the next agreement. It is

worrisome that some countries are already putting forward the position that the entire process should move to a voluntary approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, rather than setting specific national targets with timelines and consequences.2 Such a political solution to a global biogeochemical problem is a recipe for disaster.

What Are Sustainable Levels of Greenhouse Gas Emissions? The scale perspective suggests that 300 ppm may be close to the upper limit of sustainable scale (see above "What Levels of Economically Generated Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Sustainable"? in Scale Problem).

The IPCC has recommended a reduction of 60-70% below the level of 1990 emissions, which is anticipated to result in an atmospheric concentration of some 450 ppm. This is considerably higher than preindustrial levels, and is anticipated to give rise to many climate changes.

The approach of the IPCC to this question has been to have the scientists involved lay out various impact scenarios likely to result from different emission levels. Several such scenarios have been considered and a low risk scenario has been identified which involves a stabilization target for atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 450 ppm, or 60% higher than the preindustrial level of 270 ppm.

To achieve this target in the early decades of the present century, human induced greenhouse gas emissions would have to cease immediately. Unchecked, our current emission increases will take us to concentrations of 750-1000 ppm by the end of the 21st century. It should be noted that even the low risk scenario anticipates a variety of climate changes that will be costly in financial terms and harmful to many living systems (see for example,Millenium Ecosystem Assessment) Climate history indicates that when CO2 was above 1000 ppm, there were no polar ice caps, and the ocean level was many meters higher.

For a scale approach to a sustainable level of greenhouse gas emissions see Additional Solutions.

Key Nations Not Included in the Kyoto Protocol

USA Rejects Kyoto Not all the nations who need to be part of the solution are currently involved in the Kyoto process. The most significant exclusion from the Kyoto Protocol is that of theUnited States, the country responsible for approximately 25 % of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The United States is the only one of the wealthier countries both responsible for the majority of past emissions and with the resources needed to reduce emissions, to reject the Protocol. Certain elements in the energy sector have been one of the major factors in theUnited States withdrawing from Kyoto under the second Bush administration. An international solution without theUnited States will have an even more difficult time of meeting the modest targets of Kyoto.

Key Emitters Not Included The other important countries from the perspective of being large emitters are China, India, and Brazil. They, along with others, have not yet agreed to reduction targets. Countries like China, India, and Brazil are greatly increasing their greenhouse gas emissions as their economies expand. Rapidly expanding economies in these countries are responsible for increased emissions despite their efforts at more efficient uses of fossil fuels and the increased use of renewable energy.

China, for example, has reduced its coal subsidies and encouraged wind and solar energy projects, but continues to increase its overall greenhouse gas emissions as its economy grows. It is quickly approaching and will likely soon exceed the United States in total greenhouse emissions.

Voluntary Efforts and Cooperation Yet to Have Impact Some of these nations have taken steps to reduce their emissions voluntarily even before the Protocol is ratified; others have continued with business as usual. Being less developed or newly developing countries, these nations will have a more difficult challenge to reduce their emissions.

There are provisions in the Kyoto Protocol for the wealthier countries to assist developing countries through EMISSION TRADING SCHEMES and CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISMS, [glossary terms] which are designed to assist both parties, meet their emission targets. However, the level of activity regarding these complex and yet to be tried mechanisms is still low, and may not have much impact on overall emissions for years to come.

Are We Running Out of Time? A clear solution to the challenge of climate stability is not yet in sight. The international community has yet to agree on a sustainable target for greenhouse gas emissions, major emitters remain outside the agreement, direct fossil fuel and nuclear subsidies continue to the tune of at least $235 billion annually, and new technologies to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels remain to be tested.3

At the same time, continued economic growth remains a global policy priority, and is resulting in even higher levels of greenhouse gas emission each year, driving even more climate changes. Even if all the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions were to magically cease tomorrow, past and current emissions would continue to exert an influence on climate stability for decades to come. Such a fanciful scenario would still result in CO2 concentrations of some 450 ppm by the end of the 21st century, or 60% higher than the preindustrial level.

We have little idea of what levels of atmospheric concentration will result in climate surprises that have disastrous consequences for human civilization. In summary, the international community has yet to embrace a clear plan to deal with the climate problem, while the problem continues to get worse. A scale perspective helps us appreciate the potential dangers inherent in this situation, as well as providing some direction for a solution. References
1

Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. UNFCC.

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html
2

<http://grist.org/cgi-bin/forward.pl?forward_id=3869>

How is the Climate Issue Framed in terms of Sustainable Scale?

Sustainable scale in general is about a level of material and energy throughput in the economy that allows ecosystems to maintain their capacity to regenerate critical life support services. In the case of climate change, sustainable scale has to do with the level of greenhouse gas emissions generated by global economic activities of various sorts that are below the level of emissions which threaten ecosystems capacities to continue providing critical life-support services, such as climate stability. Any higher level of emissions is unsustainable (seeUnderstanding Scale).

>> Addition al Solution s >>

What Levels of Economically Generated Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Sustainable? What we know for sure from a historical perspective is that annual human induced

emissions of 54 Megatons of greenhouse gases, and atmospheric concentrations of no more than 300 ppm, were compatible with sustainable scale for climate stability.

We also know that current levels are considerably higher, and are likely to continue increasing over the coming decades.

In 1850 human induced greenhouse gas emissions were in the order of 54 Megatons (millions of tons) and increased to 6.7 Gigatons (billions of tons) (WRI) by 2000. Current human greenhouse gas emissions are therefore some 124 times greater than in 1850.

Ice core data indicate that average levels of greenhouse gas concentrations for the 6,000 years preceding the industrial revolution remained within a very narrow range, between 260 and 290 ppm. For the past 420,000 years (possibly the last 23 million years) it does not appear to have exceeded 300 ppm (green line in figure above). This span covers the entire course of human civilization, from long before the earliest agricultural settlements some 10,000 years ago, to the beginnings of modern cities and transportation infrastructure of the 20th century.

Today, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are approximately 376 ppm, or some 30% above a very long baseline. (Note present level of CO2 in upper right of adjacent figure - green semicircle).

Throughput Overwhelms Regeneration: Too Much Gas These levels of greenhouse gas emissions have exceeded the capacities of various carbon sinks to successfully absorb the gases produced by economic throughput. Sinks are renewable if the level of throughput they are absorbing remains within their absorptive capacities. If throughput exceeds this capacity, then sinks are overwhelmed and sustainable scale is exceeded. This appears to have occurred sometime in the latter half of the 19th century when global, human induced greenhouse gas emission

exceeded some 54 Megatons, resulting in atmospheric concentrations over 300 ppm.

Increased Greenhouse Gases Driven by Economic Growth Levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases increased in parallel with world GDP. World GDP increased from $359 billion to approximately $41,0000 billion (or $41 trillion) between 1850 and 2000.

Economic growth of this magnitude, in both absolute (114 times greater) and per capita terms (19 times greater), would not have been possible without the availability of cheap energy provided by fossil fuels(seeEnergy).

In addition to providing unprecedented economic growth and material comforts, the

combustion of fossil fuels has also created an unprecedented threat to climate stability by exceeding sustainable emissions of greenhouse gases.

Wha t Do We Kno w For Sure Abo ut Sust aina ble Scale and Clim ate? Abso lute incre ases of gree nhou se gas emis sions prod uced an

unprecedented increase in atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Greater emissions have naturally led to greater concentrations, although not in a linear fashion as hman induced emissions of greenhouse gases are only a small portion of the overall carbon cycle.

Thus what we know for sure from a historical perspective is that annual human emissions of 54 Megatons of greenhouse gases, and atmospheric concentrations of no more than 300 ppm, are compatible with sustainable scale for climate stability. Whether such levels are still compatible with sustainable scale is questionable, given that extensive deforestation over the last two centuries, and other land use patterns, has reduced the capacity of the forests and fields to sequester carbon. As a benchmark it is interesting to note that greenhouse gas concentrations were as high as 5500 ppm some 100 million years ago, long before humans evolved. Some 34 million years ago, the concentrations were as high as 1,000 ppm, at which point there were no polar ice caps, and the planet was some 4 C degrees warmer than it is now.

What is particularly noteworthy about this information is that it is conceivable that human induced greenhouse gas emissions may produce concentrations as high as 1,000 ppm by the end of the 21st century. While we do not know what global climate patterns were 34 million years ago, we can be sure they were quite different without the enormous influence of the polar ice caps. Without the ice caps the world s oceans would be many meters higher than they are now. Currently several hundred million people live in coastal areas around the earth.

What a Difference a Degree Makes These increased levels of greenhouse gases have already resulted in close to a 1 C degree increase in global temperature, and it is possible that temperature could increase by as much as 5 C degrees by the end of the current century.

Both the amount and speed of the warming are a concern. We are already seeing changes in the polar ice caps and some increase in sea levels even without a full degree change in temperature. A 4 or 5 C degree increase over just a few decades will cause major changes in global climate patterns, severely affecting all life on the planet (see Quick Facts).

It must be emphasized that current scientific knowledge regarding climate is very basic and many unpleasant surprises are likely if such warming occurs this rapidly, stretching the capacities of many nations to meet the basic needs of their populations. And there is some evidence emerging that very rapid climate changes, over the course of a decade, are possible.1

How Are Increased Emissions and Concentrations Affecting Ecosystem Functions? Every ecosystem on the planet is somewhat affected by greenhouse gas emissions: various atmospheric layers close to or far from the earth s surface are differentially warmed or cooled by the concentrations of greenhouse gases; land as well as the plant and animal life on, above and beneath these surfaces, are affected by and in

surfaces,

turn affect the levels of greenhouse gas concentrations; and the oceans and other water repositories are affected as well. All living organisms are affected by various climate conditions, thrive in certain combinations of temperature, moisture, wind and sunlight, and wither and die in others. These organisms are part of local and regional ecosystems involving the exchange of wastes and nutrients with the non-living environment.

These waste and nutrient flows are regulated by various climate conditions. In turn, these local ecosystems interact with each other, forming ever larger ecosystems (called biomes) [glossary] , which in turn influence weather patterns, and over time, climate (see Biodiversity). The global climate system, in its turn, interacts with other global systems such as the atmospheric ozone layer, and the distribution of biodiversity around the planet. These intricate interconnections are one of the reasons the climate issue is so complex.

Which Ecosystem Functions Are Critical Life Support Services? Critical ecosystem services are ones that are important for well-being, which can not be replaced by a substitute, and which can not be recovered if lost (see Critical Natural Capital). The UV-B protection provided by the ozone layer in the upper atmosphere is one obvious example. The recycling of wastes and nutrients by various insects and bacteria are another.

Unfortunately we do not have a comprehensive catalogue of such critical life support services, either for human well-being, or the well-being of other species. As with the atmospheric ozone layer (Ozone), we tend to become aware of which ecosystem services are critical only after they are challenged and begin reducing the level of service they usually provide.

Not only are we ignorant of which ecosystem functions are important to human wellbeing; we are also ignorant of which ones have no substitutes, and which ones could be irrevocably lost by higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The issue of substitutability or non-substitutability of various ecosystem functions is hotly debated,2 and is a political as well as scientific issue.

The even more vital issue of irrevocable loss is even less well understood. We have little solid information about what levels of material and energy throughput will trigger irrevocable losses; but at a theoretical level we can be certain that such levels exist. In short, we do not have answers to the vital questions of what levels of greenhouse gas emissions are sustainable for various critical ecosystem functions, or what levels would

trigger irrevocable losses of critical functions.

Yet we do know with some certainty that such levels exist and that the more greenhouse gases we emit, the closer we come to them. Our situation is a bit like driving down a road blindfolded, where we know there is a dangerous precipice ahead, but we nonetheless continue to accelerate (see Scale Categories).

Are Other Levels of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sustainable? In reality, we don t know enough about the dynamics of global climate systems to answer this question. If, for example, 300 or 350 ppm defines the highest throughput limit of sustainable scale (see Maximum Sustainable Scalein Sustainable Scale), then anything over this amount degrades ecosystems abilities to regenerate absorptive capacities for greenhouse gases. The result is that these gases build up in the atmosphere over time and impact climate stability.

Unchecked, the resilience (see Panarchy) of global climate systems to absorb greenhouse gases will steadily decline. As this continues there will be considerable climate disruption and many climate surprises, most of which are likely to be very unpleasant from the perspective of human well-being. The safest policy goal would be to ensure human induced emissions remain within a range we know to be sustainable. References
1

http://www.whoi.edu/home/about/whatsnew_abruptclimate.html

Scale Relevant to Climate Change

How is Climate Change a Scale Problem? A variety of economic activities over the past 150 years has resulted in unsustainable concentrations of various greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere, resulting in a serious threat to the planet's climate stability. Achieving sustainable scale will require reducing greenhouse gas emissions to

levels we know to be safe (seeClimate Change and Scale).

Will the Proposed Solution (the Kyoto Protocol) Achieve Sustainable Scale? The Kyoto Protocol has not established a target for greenhouse gas emission reductions that will result in sustainable scale for climate stability. The Protocol is an important international agreement and contains many useful recommendations that are badly needed. However, even if successfully implemented it will not achieve sustainable scale (see Proposed Climate Solutions).

What Additional Scale Relevant Policies are Required? Getting the target right for greenhouse gas emissions is key in making the best use of the many policy and technical solutions currently available to reduce excess emissions. A variety of vested interests have prevented political decision makers from making the best use of sound scientific advice regarding greenhouse gas emission targets. Economic interests trumped science in setting emission reduction targets (see Additional Climate Solutions).

What Scale Relevant Lessons Should We Take from the Climate Change Story? Human interference with global life support systems is a high risk activity. Now that we are aware our economic activities can alter robust global life-support systems, the human community needs to both deal with the problems already created, and develop policies and practices which prevent more scale problems from occurring (see Climate Change Lessons).

Climate Change Problems: A Primer. Basic facts about climate change (see Climate Change Quick Facts).

AT A GLANCE: Addressing climate change is central to the development and poverty reduction agenda. The poorest countries stand to suffer the earliest and the most from the effects of climate change. An effective response to climate change must combine both mitigation to avoid the unmanageable and adaptation to manage the unavoidable. Climate change should not be allowed to halt or slow the progress of developing countries: there is a double challenge of reducing global damaging carbon emissions while meeting the energy needs of the world s poor. The World Bank Group is working to help poor countries access additional concessional funding to enable them to cope with climate change and still achieve economic growth, poverty reduction, and ultimately the MDGs. -- Related Links --

Climate Change Website World Bank Experts: Kristalina Georgieva

The Poor Are Disproportionately Affected Developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than rich countries, with poor people most at risk from the increased impacts of extreme weather events (i.e., floods, droughts and storms). Humaninduced climate change is expected to increase climate variability and to negatively impact agricultural productivity throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, further decrease water quantity and quality in most arid and semi-arid regions, increase the incidence of malaria, dengue and other vector borne diseases in the tropics and sub-tropics, and harm ecological systems and their biodiversity. In addition, sea level rises associated with expected increases in temperature could displace tens of millions of people in low-lying areas, such as the Ganges and the Nile deltas, and could threaten the very existence of small island states. The Strategic Framework on Climate Change and Development At the G8 Gleneagles Summit in Scotland in 2005, the World Bank was mandated to develop a roadmap for accelerating investments in clean energy for the developing world, in cooperation with other international financial institutions. This roadmap, termed the Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF), identified the scale of investments needed for countries to (i) increase access to energy, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa; (ii) accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy; and (iii) adapt to climate variability and change. At the 2007 Annual Meetings, the Development Committee welcomed the progress made in implementing the CEIF and called on management to develop a comprehensive strategic framework for Bank Group engagement on climate change.

The Strategic Framework on Climate Change and Development (SFCCD) will articulate the Bank Group s vision on how to integrate climate change and development challenges, without compromising growth and poverty reduction efforts. This will be done through the World Bank Group s country operations including policy dialogue, lending, and analytical work in client countries, and through its regional and global operations. The SFCCD will broaden the scope of the CEIF by encompassing all relevant sectors, including energy, transport, urban, water, agriculture, forestry, environment, economic policy, and social protection, and by further elevating adaptation as the central attribute of development confronted by changing climate. The SFCCD will benefit from close coordination with the World Development Report 2010 on Climate Change and several other major analytical products. The SFCCD is an action framework based upon six strategic pillars: scaling-up operational approaches to integrate adaptation and mitigation in development strategies; consolidating efforts to mobilize and deliver finance; expanding the WBG s role in developing new markets; tapping private sector resources for climate friendly development; clarifying the WBG s role in accelerating technology development and deployment; and stepping-up policy research, advocacy, knowledge management and capacity building. The development of the SFCCD is underway and will include extensive consultations with a full range of stakeholders, including developing country clients, development partners (UN agencies, RDBs, bilateral donors), the private sector, and civil society through August 2008. The full SFCCD will be proposed for endorsement by the World Bank s Executive Board in September 2008 and subsequently discussed at the 2008 Annual Meetings. The consultations process for the SFCCD will include an assessment of the WBG s comparative advantage in the context of the roles and responsibilities of multiple international players, and will support the UNFCCC process and developing countries knowledge and capacity to participate in the negotiations while being neutral to any negotiating party position. Energy Needs and Climate Change. The World Bank estimates that, to achieve development goals, the power sector in developing countries needs US$165 billion (in 2005 $) in investments each year. Only about half of that financing is readily available. Tens of billions of US$ per year are also required to cover the incremental costs of transitioning to a low carbon economy. In March 2007, the Bank set goals to: increase access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa from about 25 percent to 35 percent by 2015 and 47 percent by 2030; reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the current business-as-usual path through increased lending for

clean energy projects; and pilot adaptation instruments in order to mainstream climate change adaptation into the development process. A September 2007 progress report on the implementation of the CEIF demonstrated important achievements with respect to these goals. WBG support for energy in Africa rose to US$1.1 billion in FY07 from approximately US$0.6 billion in each of the preceding two fiscal years. Moreover, the share of low carbon projects in the WBG s total energy portfolio reached 40 percent from 28 percent in the preGleneagles period of FY03-05. Low carbon country case studies, designed to pave the way for a transition to a low carbon economy, were launched for India, Mexico, Brazil, China, South Africa, and Indonesia. Global Gas Flaring Reduction (GGFR) Through the Global Gas Flaring Reduction (GGFR) partnership, the World Bank Group is helping oil producing countries and companies to increase the utilization of natural gas, which would otherwise be flared or released to the atmosphere and thus harm the environment. The GGFR partnership estimates that about 150 billion cubic meters of gas is flared every year (equivalent to about 30 percent of the European Union s annual consumption of gas and 25 percent of US consumption), releasing about 400 million tonnes of CO2. The World Bank Group has eight projects under active preparation in five countries to address this problem. Carbon Finance at the World Bank The World Bank was a pioneer in the carbon market. The Bank s operational engagement in carbon finance started with the establishment of the US$180 million Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) in 1999. This was rapidly followed by the establishment of other funds and facilities as the Kyoto Protocol was ratified. Today, the World Bank manages just over US$2 billion across 10 carbon funds and facilities. Sixteen governments and 66 private companies from various sectors have made financial contributions to these funds. In December 2007, the World Bank launched two additional facilities, the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and the Carbon Partnership Facility (CPF). The FCPF aims at reducing deforestation and forest degradation by compensating developing countries for carbon dioxide reductions realized by maintaining their forests. The CPF is designed to: (i) scale up carbon finance through programmatic and sector-based approaches; and (ii) support long-term, low-carbon investments by purchasing emission reductions beyond 2012. Assessing the World Bank Group s Portfolio The World Bank Group is working on an assessment of the greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of its projects and programs. The analysis will provide information about the emissions impacts of World Bank Group lending operations in our client countries, with the goal of identifying opportunities to reduce the GHG footprint of development activities in the context of continued support for economic growth and poverty alleviation. In-House Efforts

In 2006, as part of its commitment to environmental and social responsibility, and to contribute to efforts aimed at addressing climate change, the World Bank Group became the first multilateral development bank to become carbon neutral. The World Bank Group s Washington D.C. facilities, business travel, and conference facilities as well as travel, and hotels for delegates associated with the Spring and Annual Meetings, are carbon neutral through a strategy of energy efficiency and reduction measures, carbon offsetting, and green power purchases. In addition, the Bank Group has committed to an annual carbon emissions reduction target of 7 percent for our US-based building operations.

Is our climate already changing and how will our weather be affected over the coming century

From rising sea levels to changes in our health climate change in the UK will affect us in a variety of ways.

Our sources of energy will have to change and the way we build our houses will need to alter in the future.

What was decided at Kyoto and what does the British government think about the threat of climate change?

Have your say about climate change on our message board. Also, who are the leading thinkers in the climate change debate.

fig.1Evidence,2Impacts,3.Adaptations,4policies,5.links The greenhouse efects is at the centre of climate change debate.Therefore it is important to understand how it affects our planet.ct The term 'Greenhouse Effect' is commorease in the E The Greenhouse Effect The term 'Greenhouse Effect' is commonly used to describe the increase in the Earth's average

temperature that has been recorded over the past 100 years. However, without the 'natural greenhouse effect', life on Earth would be very different to that seen today. The 'natural greenhouse effect' The Earth receives its life sustaining warmth from the Sun. On its way to the Earth's surface most of the heat energy passes through the Earth's atmosphere, while a smaller proportion is reflected back into space. The energy warms the Earth's surface, and as the temperature increases, the Earth radiates heat energy (infrared energy) back into the atmosphere. As this energy has a different wavelength to that coming from the sun, some is absorbed by gases in the atmosphere. There are four main naturally occurring gases that are responsible for the Greenhouse Effect; water vapour, carbon dioxide, methaneand nitrous oxide. Once these gases absorb energy, the gas particles begin to vibrate and they radiate energy in all directions, including approximately 30% of it back towards Earth. The other two important greenhouse gases are ozone andhalocarbons. As a result, the Earth's average surface temperature is kept at about 15C by the blanket of atmosphere that surrounds it. Without this, the temperature would be about minus 18C - too cold for life. The gases keep the Earth warm in a similar (but not identical) way as a greenhouse keeps plants warm. The 'enhanced greenhouse effect' Although most of the greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, some are man-made and the most well-known of these are the fluorocarbons. Since the industrial revolution, human activities have also resulted in an increase in natural greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. An increase in these gases in the atmosphere enhances the atmosphere's ability to trap heat, which leads to an increase in the average surface temperature of the Earth. Interactive greenhouse effect animation

he Gree The Greenhouse Gases Almost all of the Earth's atmosphere (99%) is made up of nitrogen (about 78%) and oxygen (about 21%). While both of these gases play important roles in the vast number of processes that support life on Earth, they play almost no direct role in regulating the climate. This is carried out by some of the trace gases in the remaining 1% of the atmosphere which occur in relatively small amounts:

Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide Ozone Water vapour Halocarbons Although the proportion of the trace gases in the atmosphere appears relatively small, they can still have a big impact on climate change - and they are mainly caused by human activities.

nhouse Effect The term 'Gre

Global Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 to asses information on climate change and its impact. It's Third Assessment Report predicts global temperature rises by the end of the century of between 1.4C and 5.8C. Although the issue of the changing climate is very complex and some changes are uncertain, temperature rises are expected to affect countries throughout the World and have a knock on effect with precipitation and sea level rises. Scientists have argued about whether temperature rises are due to human activities or due to natural changes in our environment. The IPCC announced in 2001 that 'most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is likely to be attributable to human activities'. This was a more forceful statement than in 1996 when the Second Assessment Report stated that there was a 'discernible human influence on the climate' which was the first time they had concluded such a link. Many experts believe the faster the climate changes, the greater the risk will be. Scientists in the UK are playing a major role in predictions for our future climate. The UK's most recent climate scenarios (published by UKCIP) details projections for the UK's climates which fit in with the

IPCC's view of world changes. Key points - projections for climate change globally: By the second half of the 21st century, wintertime precipitation in the northern mid to high latitudes and Antarctica will rise By the same time, Australasia, Central America and sourthern Africa is likely to see decreases in winter precipitation In the tropics, it's thought some land areas will see more rainfall and others will see less It is thought the West Antarctic ice sheet is unlikely to collapse this century. If it does fall apart, sea level rises would be enormous Global average temperatures are predicted to rise by between 1.4C and 5.8C by 2100 Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to rise More hot days over land areas and fewer cold days and frost More intense precipitation events (The BBC is not responsible for the content of external websites)

enhouse Effect' is commonly used to describe the increase in the Earth's average temperature that has been recorded over the past 100 years. However, without the 'natural greenhouse effect', life on Earth would be very different to that seen today. The 'natural

Extreme Weather Increasing temperatures means the World is likely to see less frosty days and cold spells, but we are expected to experience an increase in heat waves and hot spells Greater risk of drought in summer in continental areas The greatest warming over the next 100 years is expected to be at higher latitudes and the smallest amount of warming, in the tropics Increase in extreme precipitation events

Hurricanes likely to be more intense in some parts of the World due to more rainfall and more intense winds It's not clear what will happen with thunderstorms or tornadoes An intensification of the Asian summer monsoon is expected There is no evidence for changes in the frequency, intensity or location of tropical storms Storm surges are expected to increase in frequency and in the UK the south east coast is expected to see the largest surges at around 1.2m higher than we have now (this is in the 2080's with the 'medium high emissions' scenario)

Key Points Global temperatures have risen by over 0.7C in the last 300 years - climate change is therefore already taking place. 0.5C of this warming occurred during the 20th century. Most of the warming was from 1910 to 1940 and from 1976 onwards Four out of five of the warmest years ever recorded were in the 1990's The 1990's was the warmest decade of the last millennium with 1998 being the warmest year globally since records began in 1861 1999 was the warmest year on record in the UK January-June 2002 was the warmest start to a year in the northern hemisphere The total number of cold days (where the average temperature was under 0C) has fallen from between 15 and 20 per year prior to the twentieth century, to around 10 per year in recent years 1995 saw the most hot days in 225 years of daily measurements - 26 days above 20C Sea levels are rising globally, arctic sea ice is thinning and rainfall is becoming heavier in some parts of the World. Average global sea levels have increased by between 0.1 and 0.2 metres over the last 100 years Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has declined since the late 1960's by around 10% Mountain glaciers in non polar regions have retreated significantly during the 20th century There is evidence of more precipitation in large parts of the World - an increase of 0.5-1% per decade in

many mid and high level areas of the northern hemisphere In the same area of the World there has been a 2-4%increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events In Asia and Africa there has been an increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the last few decades

Phenology

Phenology is the study of recurring natural phenomena which is carried out by monitoring the arrival and departure of species in our environment. By noting relevant dates, we can try to work out whether any changes are as a result of climate change. The UK Phenology Network, run by the Woodland Trust and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, has over 25,000 volunteers who send in observations from their local area, including several thousand young Nature Detectives. Observers note a variety of things, including when leaves fall off trees and the colour of these leaves. The ripening of autumn fruits is also recorded as well as the first and last sightings of certain birds, before and after migration. With the help of phenology, evidence is beginning to mount that the climate is changing and these changes are having an effect on wildlife. Leaves on many trees are appearing earlier in the year and flowers normally reserved for spring are appearing in November and December. By recording observations on a daily, weekly or seasonal basis, it is possible to see how quickly the local environment is changing, or whether it is remaining unaffected. Jill Attenborough, from the Woodland Trust says we're certainly seeing changes in the UK. 'Spring is coming about two weeks earlier than it would have been 30-50 years ago and

Autumn about a week later'. Many species are dependent on each other or in competition with each other in the natural environment and warmer temperatures mean some species are gaining an advantage over others. Jill Attenborough says this will lead to changes: 'Oak trees, horse chestnut trees and sycamore trees, are coming into leaf much earlier, than some of our neighbours, like ash and beech and are getting the advantage. I think we'll see a change in the composition of our woods'. It isn't just trees which are affected though - insects are also responding to the changes. According to the Woodland Trust's study, caterpillars are responding faster to changes in temperature than the blue tits which depend on them, which could mean birds struggling to feed their chicks. So, there is evidence that our climate has already changed, but how do we know this is due to changes in temperature? Jill Attenborough says the records collected and historical information going back 300 years are set against temperature changes. 'There is a very clear response between plants and wildlife and temperatures so we're very sure it's climate change that's causing this'. The UK Phenology Network scheme will continue to collate results, through its volunteers. However, more helpers are needed to make the scheme more extensive throughout the country - their aim is to have a volunteer in each 10km grid square in the country. Volunteers are welcome from anywhere in the country, however are particularly needed in the west and north of Great Britain and in Northern Ireland. (The BBC is not responsible for the content of external websites)

Is It Too Late? To stabilise climate change altogether, emissions of CO2 would have to be reduced by around 70% globally - the Kyoto Protocoldoesn't propose reductions of anything near this level. One of the main problems with carbon dioxide is the length of time it remains in the atmosphere as it

can take around 100 years for it to disperse (even after some of it is absorbed by vegetation). Therefore, even if we stopped CO2 emissions immediately, the effects of what we've already done would still influence our weather for years to come. However, carbon dioxide emissions are not going to stop and with that in mind, some change is certainly expected - the level of change depends on the amount of greenhouse gases we continue to use, which is turn is related to population growth, the use of new technologies and how much energy we use. By reducing the number of greenhouse gases even marginally, the rate of change should be less and therefore there will be less impact on our planet and our lives. A gradual change to our climate is easier to adapt as well - we should have more time to prepare our houses and other buildings for changes to the weather, wildlife should have more time to migrate, and the changes to our agricultural practices should be less sudden. This is because hopefully the changes to our weather should be less severe than in the 'High Emissions Scenario', so sea level rises and incidents of flooding shouldn't be as destructive as they could be, however they are expected to be worse than we currently see. So, most commentators say it isn't too late to do anything about it and we need to all work together to do our bit to reduce emissions and reduce the damage we are currently doing to our local environment which will affect future generations. We are already seeing change and will continue to do so, but if the scientific models are on the right lines, our climate will be a very different place in the next ten to twenty years as it is now. To see what you can do to help reduce the impacts of climate change, see our 'life at home' section.

greenhouse eff Extreme Weather Increasing temperatures means the World is likely to see less frosty days and cold spells, but we are

Sceptics Some scientists disagree with the global and UK predictions for climate change, mainly because the climate had changed naturally before. In addition predicting changes to our climate is very complex and the use of computer models has raised some criticism. On top of that, some experts believe it is impossible to be certain about how our climate will change as

it can be very unpredictable. They also believe, the climate is supposed to change and it has done before. Many believe activities from humans can not be to blame for changes in the climate. The Cambridge based European Science and Environment Forum released an American report about climate change in February 2002. The report concluded that projections of climate change by the IPCC were based on unknown assumptions about the future and based on computer models which are not adequate for such a job. Emeritus Professor of Biogeography at the University of London, Philip Stott, welcomed the report. 'In the UK, it is a media myth that there are only a few scientists who disagree with the view of 'global warming' on which the Kyoto Protocol is predicated.' He went on to say; 'the authors [of the report, 'Climate Science and Policy: Making the Connection'] challenge the key antinomy at the heart of Kyoto - namely that climate is one of the most complex systems known, yet we claim we can manage it by trying to control a small set of factors, namely greenhouse gas emissions.' Other scientists are less sceptical and it is the detail and severity of climate change which is frequently debated. If you would like to find out more about the arguments presented by the Climate Sceptics, the following links provide access to information on the wide and diverse opinions surrounding this subject. (The BBC is not responsible for the content of external websites) BBC News Institute for Climate Impact Research Sciencemag.org Reid Bryson

expected to experience an increase in heat waves and hot spells Greater risk Extreme Weather Incr Impacts

Scientists in the UK and across the World are looking at the evidence of climate change and are also using computer models to come up with predictions for our future environment and weather. However, the next stage of that work, which is just as important, is looking at the knock-on effects of potential changes. Water is an enormous consideration. As we are likely to see an increase in precipitation and sea level rises, does that mean an increase in flooding? What can we do to protect ourselves from that and how will it affect us financially? Also, how will our health be affected by global warming, how willagricultural practices change, how will wildlife cope and what will the effects on coral be? As for opportunities, well there will certainly be some positives of climate change as well as negatives so it is worth us considering those too.

expecte

Water

The impacts on our water are significant and with regards to flooding, it is vital we start thinking about immediately. For detailed information, see our articles below. Sea levels As temperatures rise, the sea will absorb heat from the atmosphere, causing it to expand and therefore creating sea level rises. For more detail read the full article. Glaciers If the entire Western Antarctic ice sheet melts, the water produced will raise sea levels by

5-6 metres. For more detail read the full article. Flooding Major floods that have only happened before say, every 100 years on average, may now start to happen every 10 or 20 years. The flood season may become longer and there will be flooding in places where there has never been any before. For more detail read the full article. Gulf stream As the Gulf Stream becomes weaker, it may become less stable and therefore be more likely to shut down completely in the future. For more detail read the full article.

amount of warming, in the tropics Sea Level Rises As temperatures rise, the sea will absorb heat from the atmosphere, causing it to expand and therefore creating sea level rises. Although ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica could be affected by warming temperatures, it isn't thought that they will melt significantly enough to contribute to sea level rises. If they melt over the coming one thousand years, though, due to increased temperatures, oceans could increase in depth by a number of metres. Land glaciers will continue to melt over the coming century which will increase the level of the seas. The IPCC have stated increases for the 2080's of from 9cm to 48cm in the 'Low Emissions Scenarios'. This rises to 16cm to 69cm in the 'High Emissions Scenarios'. Some islands will be affected by sea level rises significantly and their habitats will be threatened. One example is of the small island - Tuvalu in the Pacific, which is already experiencing severe flooding which is damaging their homes and affecting their drinking water. The islanders have already started to leave and the rest will have to do so in coming years if the trend continues. In the UK, the effect of sea level rises goes hand in hand with the land movements being experienced across the country. Therefore sea level rises could be different around the coast. Much of southern Britain is sinking and in northern areas the opposite is happening. This compounded with the sea level rises increases the risk of flooding and coastal erosion, particularly in the south and east of England.

Water: Glaciers and ice sheets Flooding Gulf stream Increase in extreme precipitation events nds It's not clear what will happen with thunderstorms or tornadoes An intensification of the Asian summer monsoon is expected There is no evidence for changes in the frequency, intensity or location of tropical storms Storm surges are ex

Glaciers and Ice Sheets Glaciers 'Mountain glaciers in non polar regions have retreated significantly during the 20th century.' (Met Office) Mountainous glaciers are retreating in many parts of the World and one particular area, scientists are concerned about is Alaska - around 500 cubic miles of ice have been lost from here in the last 50 years. The glaciers retreat when there is less snow in the winter than what is melted away in the summer. Many of the mountains in the area are now severely depleted of snow. It is believed the situation is so extreme in Alaska that half of the water flowing into the oceans, globally, due to melting glaciers, is a result of the melting in Alaska. In Europe, the situation is worrying too. Since 1850, half the volume of Europe's Alpine glaciers has disappeared and it is thought that by the end of the century half of those left, will have gone. In the last 100 years, sea levels have risen by 10-20cm globally and future rises are predicted to be much greater than this. Although melting glaciers aren't the main cause of sea level rises (that's thought to be the result of surface air temperature rises), the effects of glaciers certainly contributes and is a concern to scientists. Ice sheets and ice shelves An ice shelf sits over water but is attached to the ice sheet. If the ice shelf breaks off sea levels won't be affected.

An ice sheet sits on land. If it melts, sea levels will rise. In March 2002, the news was full of stories about the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf from Antarctica. Many scientists spoke out about their shock at the speed at which it broke up. The ice sheet, which was thought to weigh 500 million tonnes and be the same size of Somerset, broke away from the continent and shattered into thousands of icebergs. Experts predicted several years ago that it would break away but seemed surprised that it took just a month to completely break up. The collapse of Larsen B doesn't immediately affect sea levels as it was floating initially anyway, however scientists and politicians are worried about the impacts in Antarctica as other break-ups in the future could cause sea level rises. Temperatures in Antarctica have risen much higher than the global average (2.5C in 50 years), the reason for which is unclear. However, man-made global warming is certainly being blamed as the speed of the Larsen B break up was so much faster than anything they've seen before. There are now concerns that ice sheets on the continent will melt which will have a drastic effect on sea levels - if the entire Western Antarctic ice sheet melts, the water produced will raise sea levels by 56 metres. Water: Sea level rises Flooding Gulf stream

pected to increase in frequency and in the UK the south east coast is expected to see the largest surges at around 1.2m higher than we have now (this is in the 2080's with the 'medium high emissions' scenario)

Flooding Summer in Europe in August 2002. We would usually associate the last month of summer with sunshine and high temperatures. However, heavy rainfall and flooding in Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, Russia, Romania, Italy and Switzerland made the British weather look surprisingly nice, for once! Although we can't say whether climate change caused the heavy rainfall, scientists predict we will see more heavy rainfall days in the future than we currently get. The Environment Agency Sustainable Development Unit, said in June 2001: 'Major floods that have only happened before say, every 100 years on average, may

now start to happen every 10 or 20 years. The flood season may become longer and there will be flooding in places where there has never been any before.' So, the risk of flooding looks greater than ever and not just in the UK, but throughout the whole World. The UK The UK has experienced devastating floods throughout the last five years, which have affected thousands of people and caused millions of pounds worth of damage. Can we really cope with similar flooding incidents in the future and is there anything we can do to prevent it or deal with it? Five million people in England and Wales are now at risk from flooding every year and two million homes have been built in the natural floodplain of rivers or the coast and are vulnerable to flooding. The total financial cost of all of the property, land and assets in these areas has been put at a value of 214 billion. But, who is going to insure all of this property? Insurance companies are faced with increasing bills and therefore either have to put up their premiums enormously, cut the level of cover they offer, or in some cases refuse to ensure homes in high risk areas. This doesn't obviously help the home owner and many people are now struggling to insure their homes for flood damage. Adapting our homes to cope with flooding (particularly new homes) seems vital. Building them on higher ground, away from flood plains, with materials which can withstand heavy rainfall better seems to be a good idea. However, the Environment Agencies throughout the UK are also looking into the problem of flood defences as there are many areas where these would be beneficial, although the financial implications of such schemes has to be considered. In London, the Environment Agency say around 4 billion could be needed to prevent the Thames flooding, due to sea level rises. The World For many people around the World, particularly in developing countries, the dangers associated with flooding are serious. Houses, or even shacks, in many countries can be destroyed instantly as a result of heavy rain and flooding. In recent months flooding in China and Bangladesh have left thousands homeless. Whether those floods are due to climate change is difficult to say, however they were examples of how some areas in the World struggle to cope with such situations. Although heavier precipitation is expected with human-induced global warming, other factors play a vital role. Deforestation can have a big impact as upland forests can soak up a lot of water, but if humans are destroying these areas the water has more land it can run to, increasing the risk to homes and people. Wetlands can also soak up a lot of moisture, but so many are now drained to make room for development that their disappearance also hinders the flooding risk.

Coastal areas around the World will also be threatened as sea levels rise. Land used for agricultural purposes around the coast could be affected drastically which will obviously have a large impact on livelihoods. Of the largest 15 cities in the World, 13 of them are on coastal plains - with rising sea levels, they may have to do a lot of work on their defences to prevent disasters. As well as human homes, wildlife will also be threatened, but what preparation can be done to save them from flooding? What will need to be weighed up in every corner of the globe is the impact rising sea levels and increased precipitation could have on them, what can be done to prevent this and how to adapt to it. Action and no action could be very costly financially, but doing nothing could affect human lives considerably. Water: Sea level rises Glaciers and ice sheets Gulf stream

of drought in summer in continental areas The greatest warming over the next 100 years is expected to be at higher latitudes and the smallest

The Gulf Stream The world's oceans move constantly. Ocean currents flow in complex patterns and are affected by the wind, the water's salinity and temperature, the shape of the ocean floor, and the earth's rotation. How does it work? The gulf stream is one of the strongest ocean currents in the world. It is driven by surface wind patterns and differences in water density. Surface water in the north Atlantic is cooled by winds from the Arctic. It becomes more salty and more dense and sinks to the ocean floor. The cold water then moves towards the equator where it will warm slowly. To replace the cold equator-bound water, the gulf stream moves warm water from the Gulf of Mexico north into the Atlantic. The gulf stream brings warmth to the UK and north-west Europe and is the reason we have mild winters. The average annual temperature of north-west Europe is about 9C above the average for our latitude. The past

At the end of the last Ice Age, when the ice sheet covering North America melted, the sudden increase in fresh water reduced the salinity of the north Atlantic surface water and therefore less 'dense water' sank and moved towards the equator. This reduced, or even shut-down completely, the warm gulf stream. Temperatures in north-west Europe fell by 5C in just a few decades The present Recent observations have shown that since 1950 there has been a decrease of 20% in the flow of cold water in the Faeroe Bank channel between Greenland and Scotland. This is one source of cold dense water that drives the density-based component of the gulf stream. There may be an increase in flow from other cold water sources, but, if not, it could be the start of the slow down of the gulf stream. The future Today, the Greenland ice sheet is more stable, but an increase in global temperatures (and therefore melting sea ice) and precipitation may add more fresh water to the north Atlantic, similar to what happened at the end of the last Ice Age. Current climate models predict that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, the component of the gulf stream driven by the differences in water density is likely to decrease by 25% in the next 100 years. As the gulf stream becomes weaker, it may become less stable and therefore be more likely to shut down completely in the future. Implications A reduced gulf stream would mean that less heat is brought to north-west Europe and therefore harsher winters. However, current climate model predictions are confident that the increase in temperatures resulting from an increase in greenhouse gas emissions is much greater than the potential cooling effect, so a cooling of the UK climate is unlikely this century. Water: Sea level rises Glaciers and ice sheets Flooding

amount of wa Agriculture For our in-depth look at how vineyards will be affected, click here

The crops we produce in the UK and around the World could alter significantly with climate change. The weather is a vital part in farming and changes in temperature and precipitation will be important in sustaining crop growth. For the UK, temperature rises look likely to mean the crops we would normally see growing in the south of the country will be able to be grown further north. The UN believe there will be a shift northwards of between 200 and 300 kilometres for every degree of warming. This would be similar to the south of England in 2060, having the kind of weather the Loire Valley, in France, experiences now. However increased dryness in the summer could affect the quality and yields of the crop due to an increase in drought and heat waves. The types of crops grown in the UK will have to change, which doesn't have to be a bad thing. Products which haven't been farmed over here before, such as sweetcorn, sunflowers, soya and maize for cereals, could all provide new business for farmers certainly in the south east. For land owners further north and west, such as in parts of Scotland, livestock farming could become more suitable to such climes. However, if farming practices do change in this country, procedures will have to be put in place beforehand as introducing something new to farmland involves a lot of preparation. Also, with increasing demands made on water (due to evaporation and less rainfall), irrigation systems may need to be implemented so rain from winter can be stored for the summer. Agricultural pests Researchers are already finding that pests, such as aphids, are starting to hatch earlier in the year. In the last 10-15 years they've been arriving in springtime and the population of aphids appears to be growing too. Aphids are a real problem as they can cause so much damage to crops and if they're arriving earlier in the year they can get the produce when it's very fragile - causing more damage than they used to. Increase in extreme precipitation events Hurricanes likely to be more intense in some parts of the World due to more rainfall and more intense winds Human Health The climate we live in affects many areas of our lives. The quality of the food we eat, the water we drink and our homes are all dependent on our climate and weather. Some scientists have suggested that a warmer world will be a sicker world. While there is not complete agreement that this will be the case, the Department of Health have looked at the likely health consequences in the UK.

Our changing climate Climate researchers predict that the UK climate will become warmer, with high temperatures in the summer becoming more frequent and very cold winters more rare. Winters will become wetter with heavier rain more common. Direct effects With winters becoming milder, there are likely to be up to 20,000 fewer cold-related deaths. However, there is a danger that bacteria would no longer die-off seasonally during the prolonged cold spell meaning that diseases may spread more widely. More heat waves will increase the number of hot-weather related deaths by up to 2,800. Exposure to higher levels of UV light could cause an extra 5,000 deaths a year from skin cancer and may cause an increase of up to 2,000 cases of cataracts. Warmer summers may cause up to 10,000 extra cases of food poisoning each year. Higher average global temperatures mean that diseases, or their carriers, may be able to move to areas that were previously too cold for them to survive. It is possible that a mild strain of malaria will become established in localised parts of the UK for up to four months of the year. Researchers have also identified other diseases, such as Lyme disease, cholera, dengue fever and yellow fever, that could spread into previously inhospitable areas and therefore affect a wider population. The weather has been shown to be associated with changes in birth rates, sperm counts, outbreaks in pneumonia, influenza and bronchitis. Secondary effects Globally, there are likely to be more floods, more droughts and more storms, which will be accompanied by damage to our homes, food and water supplies and impact on our general health. An increase in flooding will promote the spread of water-borne diseases plus the growth of fungi, while droughts encourage white flies, locusts and rodents, all affecting food and water supplies and health. Evidence abroad The World Health Organization and NASA scientists have been studying the relationship between outbreaks of Ebola in Africa and weather patterns. They believe that a rare climate pattern may precede outbreaks of the disease. However, the natural reservoir of Ebola is still unknown - the current favourite culprits are mice or shrews, although there are theories that favour certain plants whose reproductive cycles are directly linked to weather patterns. Another example was found in edible oysters - warmer winters in the 1990s allowed a parasite previously confined to warmer waters to spread north and infect oysters along the east coast of the US. The future

Climate change is likely to have an unequal impact on the world population. Those living in poor and developing countries are going to be less able to adapt to changes. The effects on general UK health are likely to be less severe than in other parts of the world. Health impacts are not likely to be confined to the human population - wildlife will also be severly affected. It's not clear what will happen with thunderstorms or tornadoes An intensification of the Asian summer monsoon is expected There is no evidence for changes in the frequency, intensity or location of tropical storms The affects of climate change aren't going to be restricted to humans. The possible dangers for plants and animals throughout the world are a great concern to environmentalists. Birds, fish, and land-based animals are all going to be under threat as their habitats and climate alter. Plants, trees and shrubs are also going to have to adapt. According to the World Wildlife Fund climate change, as a result of human activity, has already claimed its first victim. The Golden Toad of Costa Rica is thought to be extinct as a result of global warming. Species are under threat in more than one way. Climate change is predicted to cause a number of weather extremes which could directly affect our wildlife, for example through flooding or storms. However, the biggest concern is how the changes in weather will affect the habitats in which species live. Less snow in winter, warmer temperatures in summer and more winter rain will affect wildlife across the board. Sea level rises will reduce land area in some countries, which will instantly affect vegetation which is currently used for homes and food by animals. Arctic and antarctic species Around the world, the most seriously affected areas for wildlife, will most likely be in the Arctic and in Antarctica, where warmer temperatures could affect ice cover. Species, such as the Polar Bear rely on ice and if it reclines their ability to hunt will be affected. Their main food source are seals, who also rely on the ice (for rearing their young), so the melting of the ice will affect them as well. Other animals which are affected include walruses, sea lions, penguins, some sea birds and plankton. Plankton forms the beginning of the marine food chain, so any changes to its survival could have a knock on effect to a whole range of other species. UK species The mountainous Cairngorms in Scotland are likely to be affected considerably. They are used to cold, snowy conditions, however, the snow is disappearing and it is now thought the mosses, plants and birds there, will soon be affected too.

The habitats which exist there are used to Arctic-like conditions, but in the future the weather is expected to be more like that presently found in southern England and so the wildlife will be dramatically affected and some may disappear. Birds like Ptarmigans and Dotterels won't be able to survive in warmer temperatures and so they will have to migrate further north, away from the UK. One of the main concerns with species shifting from where they are now is that if climate change occurs very quickly, some wildlife may not be able to adapt and move quick enough and so may not survive. Beech woodlands, commonly found in southern England are one of those threatened. With dryer conditions forecast for the south, beech trees will struggle to survive. Animals, such as birds and butterflies should survive as they are capable and used to migrating, but for plants, the situation isn't the same. But even for the animals, once they have moved they need to find food and habitats which are suitable to their needs, but if plant species haven't been able to move, their food sources could affect their survival. So, in fact global warming will affect the whole chain of wildlife existence. Positive changes Not all change is bad, however. As we lose some species, others will arrive, many of which are welcome. Birds like the Little Egret are now seen frequently in southern Britain, since their arrival around 20 years ago. The Cetti's Warbler are also now seen in southern wetlands and the Nuthatch, Serin, Lesser Blackbacked Gull and Dartfod Warbler have started moving northwards too. The World Wildlife Fund, as well as many other environmental organisations, are concerned about the impacts of climate change on wildlife, however they don't believe it's too late. Programme Leader for climate change at WWF, Dr Ute Collier, says; 'if it were too late, we'd just work on adaptation. And we do some of that - we look at how we can make habitats more resilient, how can you extend protected areas, so that species could move. But we still believe that if we act now, if we address emissions now, we can avoid the worst case scenarios in the future.' Species have, of course, adapteded to changes to their climates before (such as during the Ice Age), but it is believed they need a longer period of time to adapt to change than humans. (The BBC is not responsible for the content of external websites)

St

Coral Sarah Wilmshurst, Broadcast Meteorologist, looks at global warming and the threat it brings to coral reefs around the world. I am a keen scuba diver, and recently enjoyed a stunning week's diving on the coral reefs in the Red Sea at Sharm El Sheikh. I want my children to be able to enjoy the sort of experiences I have just had. But will they be able to? Coral reefs are home to over 25 per cent of all marine life, but are threatened by many things - some natural (like storms) and some man made. Water pollution, overfishing, careless recreation (by divers for example), collection of coral and human run-off are just a few of the man made threats - and global warming is also thought to be a major concern. If the present rate of destruction continues a good proportion of the world's coral reefs could be killed within our lifetime. Coral reefs are fragile ecosystems - they are thought to be the most sensitive ecosystem to long-term climate change as they can only tolerate a narrow temperature range. Global mean sea-surface temperatures are expected to increase by about 1-2C by the year 2100. An increase in sea temperature could lead to the death of coral by bleaching - when ocean temperatures get too high, corals turn white, or 'bleach,' and eventually die. There are other effects which are expected to arise from global warming which could lead to the death of coral reefs: Global warming is expected to cause an increase in the amount of tropical storms. These storms break up the coral due to the increased height of the waves. We could see an increase in the frequency of El Nino years. El Nino is characterised by changes in sea temperature - the clearest sign that an El Nio event is underway is the appearance of unusually warm water, by up to 5C, between the date line and the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. An increase in heavy rain events could lead to an increase in flooding events - this can have the consequence of causing more runoff from rivers - this bringing down sediment which is deposited in the seas - this sediment can damage coral. An increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can reduce the ability of corals to form their limestone skeletons. This slows their growth and makes them fragile - it also makes it harder for them to re-grow after a tropical storm or bleaching episode. One way or another, the future for coral reefs does not look too rosy if we carry on regardless. We can only try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and respect the reefs in other ways - by making sure that we collect nothing, we avoid hitting the reef with

our fins when diving, we try to reduce the amount of pollution we put into our oceans etc. If we do something now, we may be able to help ensure that there are coral reefs left for our children and grandchildren to dive on. Global Warming will have an impact on a variety of plants and species. Animals and plant species are in danger on the World's coral reefs as higher temperatures damage them.

orm surges are expected to increase in frequency and in the UK the south east coast is expected to see the largest surges at around 1.2m higher than we have now (this is in the 2080's with the 'medium high emissions' scenario) ect' Th

Opportunities Warmer temperatures in the UK will be welcomed by many people. The introduction of different animals and plants could have its benefits, as well as negatives. Our lifestyles could change dramatically and we could spend more time taking part in activities outdoors (in the summer anyway). Employment patterns could change too. The tourist industry in the UK should improve and that would create jobs throughout the country. Although agriculture will have some negative impacts, new crops will be able to be produced - an increase in vineyards, sunflower plantations and sweetcorn farming should all be financially lucrative. Do you think your life could improve with climate change? Have your say on our message board.

e Earth receives its life sustaining warmth from the Sun. On its way to the Earth's surface most of the heat energy passes through the Earth's atmosphere, while a smaller proportion is reflected back into space. The energy warms the Earth's surface, and as the temperature increases, the Earth radiates heat energy (infra

Policies Bonn Conference In 1997 the Kyoto treaty was set-up to consider what can be done to reduce Global warming. The treaty was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) involving most world countries with the exception of America. Almost one decade later, as the scientific understanding of climate change and its likely impacts become clearer, a number of nations have approved an addition to the treaty the Kyoto Protocol, in order to standardise a number of more powerful and legally binding measures. In May 2006 the Bonn Conference saw delegates from 165 countries meet to discuss how to further strengthen international cooperation to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases and to respond to climate change impacts. Much emphasis has been put on the promotion of economic incentives to promote action to reduce emissions - for both industrialized and developing countries. The wide-ranging presentations of possible approaches included incentives for developing countries to mitigate climate change, ensuring cooperation on research and development and the transfer of cleaner technologies. Delegates expressed strong support for the role of the carbon market and the need to find new ways to involve the private sector in climate protection. The Conference also highlighted issues faced by less industrialised countries who also face problems related to climate change. In Canada's Arctic region, the changes noted by the Inuit community - such as melting permafrost, changes in sea ice and the arrival of new migratory animal species - has raised the need to address adaptation measures. It is crucial that such measures are introduced if we are are to cope with Global warming. The latest evidence collated by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the global average temperature will rise by between 1.5C and 4.5C if human activities double the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Fortunately talks on Climate Change between the 165 countries involved are set to continue until at least 2012 when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ends. Find out more about government policies on reducing carbon emissions

Read what the experts have to say on Climate Chaos

red energy) back into the atmosphere. As this energy has a different wavelength to that coming from the sun, some is absorbed by gases in the atmosphere. There climate change Also found in: Dictionary/thesaurus, Encyclopedia, Hutchinson 0.14 sec.

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Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000 years For current global climate change, see .

Climate change refers to the variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time. It describes changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by processes internal to the Earth, external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity) or, more recently, human activities.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term "climate change" often refers to changes in modern climate which according to the IPCC are 90-95% likely to have been in part caused by human action. Consequently the term anthropogenic climate change is frequently adopted; this phenomenon is also referred to in the mainstream media as global warming. In some cases, the term is also used with a presumption of human causation, as in the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UNFCCC uses "climate variability" for non-human caused variations.[1] For information on temperature measurements over various periods, and the data sources available, see temperature record. For attribution of climate change over the past century, seeattribution of recent climate change. Climate change factors Climate changes reflect variations within the Earth's atmosphere, processes in other parts of the Earth such as oceans and ice caps, and the effects of human activity. The external factors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings and include such processes as variations in solar radiation, the Earth's orbit, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Variations within the Earth's climate Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and is a chaotic non-linear dynamical system. On the other hand, climate the average state of weather is fairly stable and predictable. Climate includes the average temperature, amount of precipitation, days of sunlight, and other variables that might be measured at any given site. However, there are also changes within the Earth's environment that can affect the climate. Glaciation

Percentage of advancing glaciers in the Alps in the last 80 years Glaciers are recognized as one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change, advancing substantially during climate cooling (e.g., the Little Ice Age) and retreating during climate warming on

moderate time scales. Glaciers grow and collapse, both contributing to natural variability and greatly amplifying externally-forced changes. For the last century, however, glaciers have been unable to regenerate enough ice during the winters to make up for the ice lost during the summer months (see glacier retreat).

The most significant climate processes of the last several million years are the glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age. Though shaped by orbital variations, the internal responses involving continental ice sheets and 130 m sea-level change certainly played a key role in deciding what climate response would be observed in most regions. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas show the potential for glacial variations to influence climate even in the absence of specific orbital changes. Ocean variability

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation On the scale of decades, climate changes can also result from interaction of the atmosphere and oceans. Many climate fluctuations, the best known being the El Nio Southern oscillation but also including the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and Arctic oscillation, owe their existence at least in part to different ways that heat can be stored in the oceans and move between different reservoirs. On longer time scales ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat, and can dramatically affect climate. The memory of climate More generally, most forms of internal variability in the climate system can be recognized as a form of hysteresis, meaning that the current state of climate reflects not only the inputs, but also the history of how it got there. For example, a decade of dry conditions may cause lakes to shrink, plains to dry up and deserts to expand. In turn, these conditions may lead to less rainfall in the following years. In short, climate change can be a self-perpetuating process because different aspects of the environment

respond at different rates and in different ways to the fluctuations that inevitably occur. Non-climate factors driving climate change Greenhouse gases

Carbon dioxide variations during the last 500 million years

Current studies indicate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is the primary cause of global warming. Greenhouse gases are also important in understanding Earth's climate history. According to these studies, the greenhouse effect, which is the warming produced as greenhouse gases trap heat, plays a key role in regulating Earth's temperature. Over the last 600 million years, carbon dioxide concentrations have varied from perhaps >5000 ppm to less than 200 ppm, due primarily to the effect of geological processes and biological innovations. It has been argued by Veizer et al., 1999, that variations in greenhouse gas concentrations over tens of millions of years have not been well correlated to climate change, with plate tectonics perhaps playing a more dominant role. More recently Royer et al.[2] have used the CO2-climate correlation to derive a value for theclimate sensitivity. There are several examples of rapid changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere that do appear to correlate to strong warming, including the Paleocene Eocene thermal maximum, the Permian Triassic extinction event, and the end of the Varangian snowball earth event. During the modern era, the naturally rising carbon dioxide levels are implicated as the primary cause of global warming since 1950. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 was 379ppm compared to the preindustrial levels of 280ppm. Thermodynamics and Le Chatelier's principle explain the characteristics of the dynamic equilibrium of a gas in solution such as the vast amount of CO2 held in solution in the world's oceans moving into and returning from the atmosphere. These principals can be observed as bubbles which rise in a pot of water heated on a stove, or a in a glass of cold beer allowed to sit at room

temperature; gases dissolved in liquids are released under certain circumstances. Plate tectonics On the longest time scales, plate tectonics will reposition continents, shape oceans, build and tear down mountains and generally serve to define the stage upon which climate exists. More recently, plate motions have been implicated in the intensification of the present ice age when, approximately 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided to form theIsthmus of Panama and shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations ofsunspots and beryllium isotopes. The sun is the ultimate source of essentially all heat in the climate system. The energy output of the sun, which is converted to heat at the Earth's surface, is an integral part of shaping the Earth's climate. On the longest time scales, the sun itself is getting brighter with higher energy output; as it continues its main sequence, this slow change or evolution affects the Earth's atmosphere. Early in Earth's history, it is thought to have been too cold to support liquid water at the Earth's surface, leading to what is known as the Faint young sun paradox. On more modern time scales, there are also a variety of forms of solar variation, including the 11year solar cycle and longer-term modulations. However, the 11-year sunspot cycle does not manifest itself clearly in the climatological data. Solar intensity variations are considered to have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age, and for some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages and evolves. Orbital variations In their effect on climate, orbital variations are in some sense an extension of solar variability, because slight variations in the Earth's orbitlead to changes in the distribution and abundance of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. Such orbital variations, known as Milankovitch cycles, are a highly predictable consequence of basic physics due to the mutual interactions of the Earth, its moon, and the

other planets. These variations are considered the driving factors underlying the glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age. Subtler variations are also present, such as the repeated advance and retreat of the Sahara desert in response to orbital precession. Volcanism A single eruption of the kind that occurs several times per century can affect climate, causing cooling for a period of a few years. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 affected climate substantially. Huge eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but can reshape climate for millions of years and cause mass extinctions. Initially, scientists thought that the dust emitted into the atmosphere from large volcanic eruptions was responsible for the cooling by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface. However, measurements indicate that most of the dust thrown in the atmosphere returns to the Earth's surface within six months. Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time periods, they release carbon dioxide from the earth's interior, counteracting the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon sinks. However, this contribution is insignificant compared to the current anthropogenic emissions. The US Geological Survey estimates that human activities generate more than 130 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.[3]

Attribution of recent climate change Human influences on climate change Anthropogenic factors are acts by humans that change the environment and influence climate. Various theories of human-induced climate change have been debated for many years. In the late 1800s, the Rain follows the plow theory had many adherents in the western United States. The biggest factor of present concern is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) which exerts a cooling effect and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal

agriculture[4] and deforestation also affect climate. Fossil fuels

Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the industrial revolution. Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 1850s and accelerating ever since, the human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels from a concentration of ~280 ppm to more than 380 ppm today. These increases are projected to reach more than 560 ppm before the end of the 21st century. It is known that carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher now than at any time in the last 800,000 years.[5] Along with rising methane levels, these changes are anticipated to cause an increase of 1.4 5.6 C between 1990 and 2100 (see global warming). Aerosols Anthropogenic aerosols, particularly sulphate aerosols from fossil fuel combustion, are believed to exert a cooling influence; see graph.[6]This, together with natural variability, is believed to account for the relative "plateau" in the graph of 20th century temperatures in the middle of the century. Cement manufacture Cement manufacturing is the third largest cause of man-made carbon dioxide emissions. While fossil fuel combustion and deforestation each produce significantly more carbon dioxide (CO2), cementmaking is responsible for approximately 2.5% of total worldwide emissions from industrial sources (energy plus manufacturing sectors).[7] Land use Prior to widespread fossil fuel use, humanity's largest effect on local climate is likely to have resulted from land use. Irrigation, deforestation, and agriculture fundamentally change the environment. For example, they change the amount of water going into and out of a given location. They also may change the local albedo by influencing the ground cover and altering the amount of sunlight that is absorbed. For example, there is evidence to suggest that the climate of Greece and other Mediterranean countries was permanently changed by widespread deforestation between 700 BC and 1 AD (the wood being used for shipbuilding, construction and fuel), with the result that the modern climate in the region is

significantly hotter and drier, and the species of trees that were used for shipbuilding in the ancient world can no longer be found in the area. A controversial hypothesis by William Ruddiman called the early anthropocene hypothesis[8] suggests that the rise of agriculture and the accompanying deforestation led to the increases in carbon dioxide and methane during the period 5000 8000 years ago. These increases, which reversed previous declines, may have been responsible for delaying the onset of the next glacial period, according to Ruddimann's overdue-glaciation hypothesis. In modern times, a 2007 Jet Propulsion Laboratory study [9] found that the average temperature of California has risen about 2 degrees over the past 50 years, with a much higher increase in urban areas. The change was attributed mostly to extensive human development of the landscape. Livestock According to a 2006 United Nations report, Livestock's Long Shadow, livestock is responsible for 18% of the world s greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalents. This however includes land usage change, meaning deforestation in order to create grazing land. In the Amazon, 70% of deforestation is to make way for grazing land, so this is the major factor in the 2006 UN FAO report, which was the first agricultural report to include land usage change into the radiative forcing of livestock. In addition to CO2 emissions, livestock produces 65% of human-induced nitrous oxide (which has 296 times the global warming potential of CO2) and 37% of human-induced methane (which has 23 times the global warming potential of CO2).[10] Interplay of factors If a certain forcing (for example, solar variation) acts to change the climate, then there may be mechanisms that act to amplify or reduce the effects. These are called positive and negativefeedbacks. As far as is known, the climate system is generally stable with respect to these feedbacks: positive feedbacks do not "run away". Part of the reason for this is the existence of a powerful negative feedback between temperature and emitted radiation: radiation increases as the fourth power of absolute temperature. However, a number of important positive feedbacks do exist. The glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age provide an important example. It is believed that orbital variations provide the timing for the growth and retreat of ice sheets. However, the ice sheets themselves reflect sunlight back into space and hence promote cooling and their own growth, known as the ice-albedo feedback. Further, falling sea levels and expanding ice decrease plant growth and indirectly lead to declines in carbon dioxide and methane. This leads to further cooling. Similarly, rising temperatures caused, for example, by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to retreating snow lines, revealing darker ground underneath, and consequently result in more absorption of sunlight.

Water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide can also act as significant positive feedbacks, their levels rising in response to a warming trend, thereby accelerating that trend. Water vapor acts strictly as a feedback (excepting small amounts in the stratosphere), unlike the other major greenhouse gases, which can also act as forcings. More complex feedbacks involve the possibility of changing circulation patterns in the ocean or atmosphere. For example, a significant concern in the modern case is that melting glacial ice from Greenland will interfere with sinking waters in the North Atlantic and inhibit thermohaline circulation. This could affect the Gulf Stream and the distribution of heat to Europe and the east coast of the United States. Other potential feedbacks are not well understood and may either inhibit or promote warming. For example, it is unclear whether rising temperatures promote or inhibit vegetative growth, which could in turn draw down either more or less carbon dioxide. Similarly, increasing temperatures may lead to either more or less cloud cover.[11] Since on balance cloud cover has a strong cooling effect, any change to the abundance of clouds also affects climate.[12] In all, it seems likely that overall climate feedbacks are negative, as systems with overall positive feedback are highly unstable. Monitoring the current status of climate Scientists use "Indicator time series" that represent the many aspects of climate and ecosystem status. The time history provides a historical context. Current status of the climate is also monitored with climate indices.[13][14][15][16] Evidence for climatic change Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct past climates. Most of the evidence is indirect climatic changes are inferred from changes in indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, dendrochronology, ice cores, sea level change, and glacial retreat. Pollen analysis Also known as palynology, is based on the notion that the geographical distributions of plant species varies due to particular climate requirements, and that these requirements are the same today as they have been in the past (Uniformitarianism). Each plant species has a distinctively shaped pollen grain, and if these fall into oxygen-free environments (depositional environments), such as peat bogs, they resist decay. Changes in the pollen found in different levels of the bog indicate, by implication, changes in climate. One limitation of this method is the fact that pollen can be transported considerable distances by wind, wildlife and in some cases running water. Certain depositional sites such as mires may also have been

effected by humans through peat cutting for fuel. This has to be taken into consideration when interpretation the pollen record. Beetles Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are found, allows past climatic conditions to be inferred. Glacial geology Advancing glaciers leave behind moraines and other features that often have datable material in them, recording the time when a glacier advanced and deposited a feature. Similarly, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of datable soil or volcanic tephra horizons. Glaciers are considered one of the most sensitive climate indicators by the IPCC, and their recent observed variations provide a global signal of climate change. See Retreat of glaciers since 1850. Historical records Historical records include cave paintings, depth of grave digging in Greenland, diaries, documentary evidence of events (such as 'frost fairs' on the Thames) and evidence of areas of vine cultivation. Daily weather reports have been kept since 1873, and the Royal Society has encouraged the collection of data since the seventeenth century. Parish records are often a good source of climate data. Examples of climate change Climate change has continued throughout the entire history of Earth. The field of paleoclimatology has provided information of climate change in the ancient past, supplementing modern observations of climate. Climate of the deep past *Faint young sun paradox *Snowball earth *Oxygen Catastrophe Climate of the last 500 million years *Phanerozoic overview *Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum *Cretaceous Thermal Maximum *Permo Carboniferous Glaciation

*Ice ages Climate of recent glaciations *Dansgaard Oeschger event *Younger Dryas *Ice age temperatures Recent climate *Holocene Climatic Optimum *Medieval Warm Period *Little Ice Age *Year Without a Summer *Temperature record of the past 1000 years *Global warming Hardiness Zone Migration Measuring Climate Change There is no single instrument measuring climate change. Instead there are thousands of measuring devices spread across the globe, on land, under the sea and in the air. The climate system is a complex, interactive system consisting of the atmosphere, land surface, snow and ice, oceans and other bodies of water, and living things. The atmospheric component of the climate system is what we generally refer to as climate: climate is often defined as average weather . Climate is usually described in terms of the mean and variability of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time, ranging from months to millions of years (the classical period is 30 years, see weather and climate for more information on the difference between these two).

Countless empirical tests of numerous different hypotheses have now built up a massive body of Earth science knowledge. This repeated testing has refined the understanding of many aspects of the climate system, from deep oceanic circulation to stratospheric chemistry. Sometimes a combination of observations and models can be used to test planetary-scale hypotheses. For example, the global cooling and drying of the atmosphere observed after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo provided key tests of particular aspects of climate models. Climate science in recent decades has seen an increasing rate of advancement, particularly in field

research and notably through the evolution of measuring climate change methodology and tools, including the models and observations that support and enable the research. During the last four decades, the rate at which scientists have added to the body of knowledge of atmospheric and oceanic processes has accelerated dramatically. As scientists incrementally increase the totality of knowledge, they publish their results in peer-reviewed journals.

Instruments Used When Measuring Climate Change There are a number of key factors in measuring climate change, and they are broadly categorised below. The range of instrumentation used to observe and measure climate is truly amazing. By following the links below you can see the types of instruments, and where they are used. Temperature When measuring climate change this is a primary and can be measured or reconstructed for the Earth's surface, and sea surface temperature (SST). Precipitation (rainfall, snowfall etc) offers another indicator of relative climate variation and may include humidity or water balance, and water quality. Biomass and vegetation patterns may be discerned in a variety of ways and provide evidence of how ecosystems change to adapt to climate change. Sea Level measurements reflect changes in shoreline and usually relate to the degree of ice coverage in high latitudes and elevations. Solar Activity can influence climate, primarily through changes in the intensity of solar radiation. Volcanic Eruptions, like solar radiation, can alter climate due to the aerosols that are emitted into the atmosphere and alter climate patterns. Chemical composition of air or water can be measured by tracking levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, and measuring ratios of oxygen isotopes. Research indicates a strong correlation between the percent of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the Earth's mean temperature.

Combining Observation and Measurements In understanding global climate changes it is necessary to combine many disciplines, including oceanography, meteorology, geomorphology, geology and paleoclimatology. As well as combining

interdisciplinary studies, observations and measurements can be assembled over long time spans, using different measuring approaches. For example, the annual averages of the global mean sea level seen below are based on reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (red), and the tide gauge measurements are since 1950 (blue) while the satellite altimetry is since 1992 (black). The units are in millimetres relative to the average for 1961 to 1990 and the error bars are at 90% confidence intervals. By combining these three different approaches, scientists are able to build a clear picture of rising sea level that would not be possible if each was presented independently. You can also see with the introduction of accurate measuring, the confidence level for accuracy increases.

How Climate Knowledge Accumulates Despite occasional major paradigm shifts, the majority of scientific insights, even unexpected insights, tend to emerge incrementally as a result of repeated attempts to test hypotheses as thoroughly as possible. Therefore, because almost every new advance is based on the research and understanding

that has gone before, science is cumulative, with useful features retained and non-useful features abandoned. Active research scientists, throughout their careers, typically spend large fractions of their working time studying in depth what other scientists have done. Superficial or amateurish acquaintance with the current state of a scientific research topic is an obstacle to a scientist s progress. Working scientists know that a day in the library can save a year in the laboratory when measuring climate change. Good science questions competing assertions about climate change. For example, can the statement under consideration, in principle, be proven false? Has it been rigorously tested? Did it appear in the peer-reviewed literature? Did it build on the existing research record where appropriate? If the answer to any of these questions is no, then less credence should be given to the assertion until it is tested and independently verified.

Uncertainties in Measuring Climate Change The history of the centuries-long effort to document and understand climate change is often complex, marked by successes and failures, and has followed a very uneven pace. Testing scientific findings and openly discussing the test results have been the key to the remarkable progress that is now accelerating in all domains, in spite of inherent limitations to predictive capacity. Climate change science is now contributing to the foundation of a new interdisciplinary approach to understanding our environment. Consequently, much published research and many notable scientific advances have occurred in the last few decades, including advances in the understanding and treatment of uncertainty. Uncertainties can be classified in several different ways according to their origin. Two primary types are value uncertainties and structural uncertainties . Value uncertainties arise from the incomplete determination of particular values or results, for example, when data are inaccurate or not fully representative of the phenomenon of interest. Structural uncertainties arise from an incomplete understanding of the processes that control particular values or results, for example, when the conceptual framework or model used for analysis does not include all the relevant processes or relationships. Uncertainties associated with random errors have the characteristic of decreasing as additional measurements are accumulated, whereas those associated with systematic errors do not. In dealing with climate records, scientists give considerable attention to the identification of systematic errors or unintended biases arising from data sampling issues and methods of analysing and combining data. Fortunately, science is inherently self-correcting; incorrect or incomplete scientific concepts ultimately do not survive repeated testing against observations of nature. Page based on 2007 IPCC Fourth Report.

Climate change and economics There has been a debate about how climate change could affect the world economy. An October 29, 2006 report by former Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World BankNicholas Stern states that climate change could affect growth, which could be cut by one-fifth unless drastic action is taken. (Report's stark warning on climate) Political advisor Frank Luntz recommended the Bush Administration adopt the term "Climate Change" in preference to global warming.

Climate change in popular culture The issue of climate change has entered popular culture since the late 20th century. Science historian Naomi Oreskes has noted that "there's a huge disconnect between what professional scientists have studied and learned in the last 30 years, and what is out there in the popular culture".[17] An academic study done by Sheldon Ungar contrasts the relatively rapid acceptance of ozone depletion as reflected in popular culture with the much slower acceptance of the scientific consensus on global warming.[18] Climate Change and biodiversity Some of the most immediate effects of recent climate change are becoming apparent through affects on biodiversity. The life cycles of many wild plants and animals are closely linked to the passing of the seasons; climatic changes can lead to interdependent pairs of species (e.g. a wild flower and its pollinating insect) losing synchronization, if, for example, one has a cycle dependent on day length and the other on temperature or precipitation. In principle, at least, this could lead to extinctions or changes in the distribution and abundance of species. One phenomenon is the movement of species northwards in Europe. A recent study by Butterfly Conservation in the UK,[19], has shown that relative common species with a southerly distribution have moved north, whilst scarce upland species have become rarer and lost territory towards the south. This picture has been mirrored across several invertebrate groups. Drier summers could lead to more periods of drought[20], potentially affecting many species of animal and plant. For example, in the UK during the drought year of 2006 significant numbers of trees dies or showed die back on light sandy soils. Wetter, milder winters might affect temperate mammals or insects by preventing them hibernating or entering torpor during periods when food is scarce. One predicted change is the ascendancy of 'weedy' or opportunistic species at the expense of scarcer species with

narrower or more specialized ecological requirements. One example could be the expanses of bluebell seen in many woodlands in the UK. These have an early growing and flowering season before competing weeds can develop and the tree canopy closes. Milder winters can allow weeds to overwinter as adult plants or germinate sooner, whilst trees leaf earlier, reducing the length of the window for bluebells to complete their life cycle. Organisations such as Wildlife Trust, World Wide Fund for Nature, Birdlife International and the Audubon Society are actively monitoring and research the effects of climate change on biodiversity. They also advance policies in areas such as landscape scale conservation to promote adaptation to climate change. A more detailed review of these issues can be found here. See also Abrupt climate change Alternative propulsion Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Carbonfund Climate change response Climate Change Science Program Climate model Climate of Mars Economics of global warming Effects of global warming Emission standard Energie-Cits Environmental Change Network(ECN) Fuel efficiency References Emanuel, K. A. (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years., Nature, 436; 686-688 ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdfPDF Global dimming Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments Global Warming Global warming controversy Green vehicle Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change International Environmental Law Iron fertilization Kyoto Protocol Low-carbon economy anddecarbonisation Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Mitigation of global warming Permafrost Renewable energy Sea level rise Timeline of environmental events Western Regional Climate Action Initiative

IPCC. (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (summary for policy makers), IPCC. Jones, C. Climate Change: Facts and Impacts [online]. Available from: What effects are we seeing now and what is still to come? Miller, C. and Edwards, P. N. (ed.)(2001) Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance, MIT Press Ruddiman, W. F. (2003) The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago, Climate Change 61 (3): 261-293 Ruddiman, W. F. (2005) Plows, Plagues and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate, Princeton University Press Ruddiman, W. F., Vavrus, S. J. and Kutzbach, J. E. (2005) A test of the overdue-glaciation hypothesis, Quaternary Science Review, 24:11 Schmidt, G. A., Shindel, D. T. and Harder, S. (2004) A note of the relationship between ice core methane concentrations and insolation GRL v31 L23206; water vapour Notes are fClimate myths: The 'hockey stick' graph has been proven wrong

Updated 10:47 12 November 2008 by Michael Le Page See all climate myths in our special feature. Updated: See final section. In fact, later studies support the key conclusion: the world is warmer now than it has been for at least 1000 years The "hockey stick" graph was the result of the first comprehensive attempt to reconstruct the average northern hemisphere temperature over the past 1000 years, based on numerous indicators of past temperatures, such as tree rings. It shows temperatures holding fairly steady until the last part of the 20thcentury and then suddenly shooting up (see graphic, right). It provided yet more evidence that the rise in greenhouse gases due human activity is causing warming, although the case for this was already very strong. The conclusion that we are making the world warmer certainly does not depend on reconstructions of temperature prior to direct records. The hockey graph was first published in a 1999 paper (pdf) by Michael Mann and colleagues, which was an extension of a 1998 study in Nature. The graph was highlighted in the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since 2001, there have been repeated claims that the reconstruction is at best seriously flawed and at worst a fraud, no more than an artefact of the statistical methods used to create it (see The great hockey stick debate). Details of the claims and counterclaims involve lengthy and arcane statistical arguments, so let's skip straight to the 2006 report of the US National Academy of Science (pdf). The academy was asked by Congress to assess the validity of temperature reconstructions, including the hockey stick. "Array of evidence" The report states: "The basic conclusion of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1000 years. This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes both additional largescale surface temperature reconstructions and pronounced changes in a variety of local proxy indicators, such as melting on ice caps and the retreat of glaciers around the world". Most researchers would agree that while the original hockey stick can - and has - been improved in a number of ways, it was not far off the mark. Most later temperature reconstructions fall within the error bars of the original hockey stick. Some show far more variability leading up to the 20th century than the hockey stick, but none suggest that it has been warmer at any time in the past 1000 years than in the last part of the 20th century.

It is true that there are big uncertainties about the accuracy of all past temperature reconstructions, and that these uncertainties have sometimes been ignored or glossed over by those who have presented the hockey stick as evidence for global warming. The problems Climate scientists, however, are only too aware of the problems (see Climate myths: It was warmer during the Medieval period), and the uncertainties were both highlighted by Mann's original paper and by others at the time it was published. Update: as suggested by the academy in its 2006 report, Michael Mann and his colleagues have reconstructed northern hemisphere temperatures for the past 2000 years using a broader set of proxies than was available for the original study and updated measurements from the recent past. The new reconstruction has been generated using two statistical methods, both different to that used in the original study. Like other temperature reconstructions done since 2001 (see graph), it shows greater variability than the original hockey stick. Yet again, though, the key conclusion is the same: it's hotter now than it has been for at least 1000 years. In fact, independent evidence, from ice cores and sea sediments for instance, suggest the last time the planet approached this degree of warmth was during the interglacial period preceding the last ice age over 100,000 years ago. It might even be hotter now than it has been for at least a million years. Further back in the past, though, it certainly has been hotter - and the world has been a very different place. The crucial point is that our modern civilisation has been built on the basis of the prevailing climate and sea levels. As these change, it will cause major problems.

Individual and political action on climate change

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Ads by GoogleClimate Change Everyone is talking about it. Find out what is really happening! undefined www.Knowledge.Allianz.com Water and Climate Change UNESCO-IHE Online Course for Mid Career Professionals undefined www.unesco-ihe.org Reduce Your Carbon Output Improve your mileage and emissions Money-back guarantee. Only $39.95 undefined VortecCyclone.com The issue of human-caused, or anthropogenic, climate change (global warming) is becoming a central

focus of the Green movement. As illustrated by the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize being jointly awarded to Al Gore and the International Panel on Climate Change, the issue is building an increasing level of mainstream interest. Around the world, there is an increasing awareness of the importance of climate change as a factor in a range of issues. Many environmental, economic and social issues find common ground in the form of climate change. Individual and political action on climate change can take many forms, all of which have the ultimate goal of limiting and/or reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (See also business action on climate change.) Political action Political action is useful for changing laws and regulations that relate to climate change, such as tax incentives, greenhouse gas emissions limits or establishing a regulatory framework within which carbon trading markets can operate. It can also be useful for gaining media and public attention to climate change. Political action from the community, however, is often challenged by powerful vested interests within the fossil fuel industry[1][2] . There are many forms of political action on climate change. These include letter writing, direct lobbying, and public shaming of politicians and political and media organizations. Many people choose to support only those who offer plans to convert to wind power and electric vehicles . Organising such campaigns requires building a required base of support at local level. Protest movements An increasingly number of groups from around the world are coming together to work on the common issue of climate change. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) from diverse fields of work are finding they have an issue to unite on. A coalition of 50 NGOs called Stop Climate Chaos launched in Britain (September 2005) to highlight the issue of climate change. Another group, the Campaign against Climate Change was created to focus purely on the issue of climate change and particularly to pressure governments into action by building a protest movement of sufficient magnitude to effect political change. In New Zealand, a coalition called Climaction adovcates system change, not climate change. They hold mass direct action blockades of major streets in Auckland City to demand free and frequent public transport, and a 90% reduction in greenhouse gases by the year 2030. [1] International political frameworks Kyoto The primary international policy framework currently in existence is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), specifically the Kyoto Protocol, which sets emissions limits for many of the world's most economically developed nations.

The EU ETS Under Kyoto, countries with targets can elect to reach these targets in co-operation with other countries. The European Union has decided to work as a unit to meet its emissions targets. The European climate change program attempts to do this by utilising an emissions trading scheme known as the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme. The principle of this scheme is quite simple: in order to make their legally binding commitments under Kyoto, countries can either make these savings within their own country, or they can buy these emissions reductions from other countries. These other countries would still need to meet their Kyoto targets, but the use of a free market system ensures the reductions are made for the least possible costs. Most reductions are made where these reductions are cheapest, and the excess reductions can be sold on to other countries where such cuts would be less economically viable. Contraction and Convergence The concept of Cap, Contraction and Convergence, as a replacement to the Kyoto agreement, has been recently gaining ground. The idea here is that the limits to carbon emissions need to be capped at 450 parts per million, currently considered to produce a raise in world temperatures above pre-industrial levels of about 2 degrees Celsius. It is currently believed that further increases would bring about major positive feedbacks (the burning of forests and the loss of carbon from soils and oceans) which currently limit greenhouse gas emissions, and would lead to a run-away global warming similar to the Eocene period, during which there was no ice at the poles. To sustain this figure, it is proposed that on equity grounds, all people should be allocated an equal carbon footprint (currently about 2 tonnes per person, which by 2050 could fall to 1.5 tonnes per person through population increase). World per capita carbon emissions, currently in excess of 4 tonnes per person needs to contract to those levels, if these targets are to be met[3]. As a result, in the name of global and inter-generational equity, policies needing to be instituted need to converge, over a fixed period towards this figure for every country. A trading regime, whereby which countries in excess of these figures (from example the USA at 20 tonnes per capita), purchase carbon credits from a country using less than its allocation (eg Kenya at 1.3 tonnes per capita), is considered by many as the best way of solving this problem. For example the Contract and Converge strategy has now been adopted by India, China and many African countries as the basis for future negotiations. The UK Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution said in 2000 "the UK should be prepared to accept the contraction and convergence principle is the basis for international agreement on greenhouse gas emissions"[4]. Sub-national level action The examples and perspective in this article or section may not represent a worldwide view of the subject.

Please [ improve this article] or discuss the issue on the talk page. States, regions, and cities are taking the lead on developing emissions reduction methods in the absence of federal policy, and may provide models for future national efforts. Their efforts are achieving real measurable emissions reductions and by pursuing policies and programs that have climate benefits, they have promoted state economic development, improved air quality and trimmed their vulnerability to energy price spikes. In the long run, addressing climate change will require comprehensive national policy and international agreements. However, in the absence of federal policy, states and regions are taking the lead on developing policies that may provide models for future national efforts. What's being done in the United States Across the country, states are achieving real emissions reductions and gaining valuable policy experience as they take action on climate change. These actions include increasing renewable energy generation, selling agricultural carbon sequestration credits, and encouraging efficient energy use. Many states are pursuing policies and programs that have climate benefits while at the same time hedging states' vulnerability to energy price spikes, promoting state economic development, and improving local air quality. States often function as "policy laboratories", developing intiatives that serve as models for federal action. This has been especially true with environmental regulation--most federal environmental laws have been based on state models. In addition, state actions can have a significant impact on emissions, because many individual states emit high levels of greenhouse gases. Texas, for example, emits more than France, while California's emissions exceed those of Brazil.http://www.pewclimate.org/policy_center/policy_reports_and_analysis/state/index.cfmState actions are also important because states have primary jurisdiction over many areas--such as electric generation, agriculture, and land use--that are critical to addressing climate change. It is important to understand that states have limited resources to devote to the climate issue, and their strict budget requirements can put long-term climate policies in jeopardy. States also lack certain powers that would be crucial to a comprehensive climate change policy, such as the authority to enter into international agreements. Finally, when states take individual approaches on the issue, a "patchwork quilt" of policies can result across the nation. This patchwork of policies may be inefficient for complying business and may result in some states duplicating the work done in other states. While some states are delivering real reductions of GHG emissions only in a few cases do the reduction targets commensurate with what will be needed on a global scale. Comprehensive climate plans combined with enforecable GHG emissions targets provide the highest certainty of significant emission reductions. Twenty-eight states have climate action plans and nine have state-wide emission targets. The states of California and New Mexico have committed most recently to emission reductions targets, joining New Jersey, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Washington and Oregon.

States that have declared GHG mitigation strategies or hold action plans California California has long been seen as the state-level pioneer in environmental issues related to global warming and has shown some impressive leadership in the last four years. On July 22, 2002, Governor Gray Davis approved AB 1493, a bill directing the California Air Resources Board to develop standards to achieve the maximum feasible and cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gases from motor vehicles. Now the California Vehicle Global Warming law, it requires automakers to reduce emissions by 30% by 2016. Although it has been challenged in the courts by the automakers, support for the law is growing as other states have adopted similar legislation. On September 7, 2002 Governor Davis approved a bill requiring the California Climate Action Registry to adopt procedures and protocols for project reporting and carbon sequestration in forests. (SB 812. Approved by Governor Davis on September 7, 2002) California has convened an interagency task force, housed at the California Energy Commission, to develop these procedures and protocols. Staff are currently seeking input on a host of technical questions. On June 2005 Gov. Schwarzenegger signed an executive orderhttp://www.governor.ca.gov/state/govsite/gov_htmldisplay.jsp?BV_SessionID=@@@@04384162 97.1118767980@@@@&BV_EngineID=cccdaddelkfifflcfngcfkmdffidfnf.0&sCatTitle=&sFilePath=/govsite /spotlight/060105_update.html calling for the following reductions in state greenhouse gas emissions: 11 percent by 2010, 25 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050. Most recently, on August 30,2006, Schwarzenegger and theCalifornia Legislature reached an agreement on AB32, the Global Warming Solutions Act, and on September 27, 2006, signed it into law at an official ceremony. The Act caps California's greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2020. This agreement represents the first enforceable state-wide program in the U.S. to cap all GHG emissions from major industries that includes penalties for non-compliance. This requires the State Air Resources Board to establish a program for statewide greenhouse gas emissions reporting and to monitor and enforce compliance with this program. The bill authorizes the state board to adopt market-based compliance mechanisims including cap-and-trade, and allows a one-year extension of the targets under extraordinary circumstances.http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/press-release/4111/ Additionally, on September 26th Governor Schwarzenegger signed SB 107, which requires California's three major biggest utilities

Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas & Electric to produce at least 20% of their electricity using renewable sources by 2010. This shortens the time span originally enacted by Gov. Davis in September 2002 to increase utility renewable energy sales 1% annually to 20% by 2017. Connecticut The state of Connecticut passed a number of bills on global warming in the early to mid 1990s, including -- in 1990 -- the first state global warming law to require specific actions for reducing CO2. Connecticut is one of the states that agreed, under the auspices of the New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers (NEG/ECP), to a voluntary short-term goal of reducing regional greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2010 and by 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. The NEG/ECP long-term goal is to reduce emissions to a level that eliminates any dangerous threats to the climate -- a goal scientists suggest will require reductions 75 to 85 percent below current levelshttp://ctclimatechange.com/ExecutiveSummary.html. These goals were announced in August 2001. The state has also acted to require incremental additions in renewable electric generation by 2009.http://ctclimatechange.com/documents/ExecutiveSummary_CCCAP_2005_000.pdf Regional initiatives Regional initiatives can be more efficient than programs at the state level, as they encompass a broader geographical area, eliminate duplication of work, and create more uniform regulatory environments. Over the past few years, a number of regional initiatives have begun developing systems to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, increase renewable energy generation, track renewable energy credits, and research and establish baselines for carbon sequestration. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative In December 2005, the governors of seven Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states agreed to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a cap-and-trade system covering carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from regional power plants. Currently (at the time of this edit), Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont have signed, and Maryland Governor Robert Ehrlich signed legislation in March 2006 that commits Maryland to join RGGI by 2007. To facilitate compliance with reduction targets, RGGI will provide flexibility mechanisims that include credits for emissions reductions achieved outside of the electricity sector. The successful implementation of the RGGI model will set the stage for other states to join or form their own regional cap and trade systems and may encourage the program to expand to other greenhouse gases and other sectors.http://www.rggi.org/about.htm RGGI states, along with Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, are also developing a GHG registry called the Eastern Climate Registry. The Western Governors' Association The Western Governors' Association (WGA) Clean and Diversified Energy Initiative, including 18 western states, has begun investigating strategies to increase efficiency and renewable energy sources in their electricity systems. Governors Richardson (NM), Schwarzenegger (CA), Freudenthal (WY) & Hoeven (ND)

serve as lead Governors on this initiative. To meet its goals, the Initiative's advisory committee (CDEAC) appointed eight technical task forces to develop recommendations based on reviews of specific clean energy and efficiency options. The CDEAC made final recommendations to the Western Governors' Association on June 11, 2006.http://www.westgov.org/wga/meetings/am2006/CDEAC06.pdf Additionally, the WGA and the California Energy Commission are creating the Western Renewable Energy Generation Information State (WREGIS). WREGIS is a voluntary system for renewable energy credits and tracks renewable energy credits (RECs) across 11 western states in order to facilitate trading to meet renewable energy portfolio standards. Other regional initiatives The governors of Arizona and New Mexico signed an agreement to create the Southwest Climate Change Initiative in February 2006. The two states collaborated to assess greenhouse gas emissions and address the impacts of climate change in the Southwest [2] and on September 8, 2006, Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano issued an executive order to implement recommendations included in the Climate Change Advisory Group's Climate Action Plan. [3] The West Coast states--Washington, Oregon, and California--are cooperating on a strategy to reduce GHG emissions, known as the Western Coast Governors' Global Warming Initiative. Finally, on February 26, 2007, these five Western states (Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, and New Mexico) agreed to combine their efforts to develop regional targets for reducing greenhouse emissions, creating the Western Regional Climate Action Initiative. [4] In 2001 six New England states committed to the New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers (NEG-ECP) climate action plan, including short and long-term GHG emission reduction goals. Powering the Plains, launched in 2002, is a regional effort involving participants from the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and the Canadian Province of Manitoba. This initiative aims to develop strategies, policies, and demonstration projects for alternative energy sources and technology and climate-friendly agricultural development. [5] Local governments Local governments have many approaches and motives for undertaking and achieving reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and each is governed by a variety of philosophies and ideals. Jurisdictions participating in reducing global warming pollution more often than not are motivated by the desire to simply cut traffic, save tax money, clean the air, and improve quality of life in their communities. In seeking to embrace a process that is compatible with their own jurisdiction, local governments occasionally develop collaborative agreements with organizations that advocate for a specific approach in order to simplify access to mechanisms for achieving results. There is no single approach that can be universally applied at this level effectively, but the inheret diversity of communities in themselves has sparked many creative approaches that can be further developed and applied on a larger level. ICLEI

In 1993, at the invitation of ICLEI, municipal leaders met at the United Nations in New York and adopted a declaration that called for the establishment of a worldwide movement of local governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, and enhance urban sustainability. The result was the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) Campaign. Since its inception, the CCP Campaign has grown to involve more than 650 local governments worldwide that are integrating climate change mitigation into their decision-making processes.[6] U.S. Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement On February 16, 2005 Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels launched an initiative to advance the goals of the Kyoto Protocol through leadership and action by at least 141 American cities, and currently as of October, 2006, 319 mayors representing over 51.4 million Americans have accepted the challenge.[7] Under the US Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement, cities must commit to three actions in striving to meet the Kyoto Protocol in their own communities.[8] These actions include: Strive to meet or beat the Kyoto Protocol targets in their own communities, through actions ranging from anti-sprawl land-use policies to urban forest restoration projects to public information campaigns; Urge their state governments, and the federal government, to enact policies and programs to meet or beat the greenhouse gas emission reduction target suggested for the United States in the Kyoto Protocol -- 7% reduction from 1990 levels by 2012; and Urge the U.S. Congress to pass the bipartisan greenhouse gas reduction legislation, which would establish a national emission trading system Campus-level action Many colleges and universities have taken steps in recent years to offset or curb their greenhouse gas emissions in relation to campus activities. On October 5, 2006, New York Universityannounced that it plans to purchase 118 million kilowatt hours of wind power, more wind power than any college or university in the country. [9] Later in the same month, the small campus ofCollege of the Atlantic in Maine became the first to vow to offset all of its greenhouse gas emissions by cutting GHG emissions and investing in emissions-cutting projects elsewhere. [10] In May 2007, the trustees of Middlebury College voted in support of a student-written proposal [https://segue.middlebury.edu/index.php?&site=midd_shift&section=15648&action=site] to reduce campus emissions as much as possible, and then offset the rest such that the campus is carbon neutral by 2016. [11] What is being done in the United Kingdom The town of Totnes in Devon through its "Transition Town Totnes" Project has adopted an Energy Descent Plan, as a response in answer to to the twin problems of greenhouse gas emissions and peak oil. As a result of a series of large, well attended public gatherings with key experts from around the world, and the organisation of a number of special interest groups, the community has come together with lecturers and trainers shared with Schumacher College, through a process of participative strategic

planning, to hone their skills in project development. As a result of the initiatives in Totnes, a large number of other communities have started "Transition Town" projects. The concepts of including "food miles" or "carbon neutral" labels on packaging has been gaining interest in the UK.[5] What's being done in Australia Climate change is on the agenda for most environmental and social justice non-government organisations (NGOs) in Australia. There has also been significant action at a State Government level, although the Federal government has been slow to act, with the prime minister, John Howard, only recently changing rhetoric on the issue. Howard, who until recently has called himself a 'climate change skeptic', now brands himself as a 'climate change realist'. The Four Corners investigative TV program in 2004 investigated how Australia's "Greenhouse Strategy" is being run by a self-styled "Greenhouse Mafia" of senior public servants and coal mining companies[6], and the Australia Institute has recently published an analysis "Scorcher: The Dirty Politics of Climate Change" [7], which show how Australia as a result has systematically set out with the USA Federal Government to sabotage the Kyoto process. With Uzbekistan, Australia is one of three nations that have not committed to the Kyoto Protocol. The state of Victoria, in particular, has been proactive in pursuing reductions in GHG through a range of initiatives. Other states have also taken a more proactive stance than the federal government. One such initiative undertaken by the Victorian Government is the Greenhouse Challenge for Energy Policy package, which aims to reduce Victorian emissions through a mandated renewable energy target. Initially, it aimed to have a 10 per cent share of Victoria s energy consumption being produced by renewable technologies by 2010, with 1000 MWh being produced by wind energy by 2006; this target was not met. The government recently legislated to ensure that by 2016 electricity retailers in Victoria purchase 10 per cent of their energy from renewables. The State Government also made an election promise, at the 2006 election, to increase this to 20 per cent by 2020. By providing a market incentive for the development of renewables, the government helps foster the development of the renewable energy sector. On May 6, 2007, the Premier of Western Australia, Alan Carpenter announced the formation of a new Climate Change Office responsible to a Minister, with a plan that included:[8] a target to reduce emissions by at least 60% below 2000 levels by 2050 a $36.5 million Low Emission Energy Development Fund a target to increase renewable energy generation on the South West Interconnected System to 15% by 2020 and 20% by 2025 a clean energy target of 50% by 2010 and 60% by 2020 State Government purchase of 20% renewable energy by 2010

a mandatory energy efficiency program that will require large and medium energy users to invest in cost effective energy efficiency measures tripling the successful solar schools program so that over 350 schools will be using renewable energy by 2010 a new $1.5 million Household Sustainability Audit and Education program that will provide practical information to households about how they can reduce greenhouse gas emissions investing 8.625 million to help businesses and communities adapt to the impacts of climate change the development of new climate change legislation a commitment to establishment of a national emissions trading scheme This plan has been criticised by Greens MP Paul Llewellyn who stated that short-term programmatic targets rather than aspirational targets to greenhouse gas emissions were needed, and that renewable energy growth in the state was still being driven entirely by federal government policy and incentives, not by measures being made by the state government[9]. Community organising The Australian Youth Climate Coalition http://www.youthclimatecoalition.blogspot.com was founded in November 2006 by the Australian Student Environment Networkhttp://www.asen.org.au, GetUp!, the United Nations Youth Association and OzGreen with a summit involving 65 young people aged 15-30 representing 30 different youth and youth-friendly organisations. The Coalition plans training sessions to develop young leaders in the climate movement.http://www.itsgettinghotinhere.org In February 2007, AYCC members organised to deliver their climate change declaration http://youthclimatecoalition.org/dec.asp to members of the Australian Parliament around the country. In the Hunter Valley, alliances are being developed between unionists, environmentalists and other stakeholders http://www.climateaction.org.au/ The Anvil Hill Alliance includes community and environment groups in NSW opposed to the expansion of coal mines in his high conservation value region. Their statement has been endorsed by 28 groups. http://www.anvilhill.org.au/ Community engagement WWF has recruited companies to participate in Australia's first Earth Hour on March 31st. http://wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/ Participating companies will turn off their lights for one hour from 7.30pm. Cities across Europe turned off lights on public buildings including the Eiffel Tower and Colloseum during January 2007 to mark the release of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report http://wfrv.com/topstories/local_story_032223026.html. Householders were also encouraged to switch off electrical appliances.

With support from the Uniting Church and Catholic Earthcare, ACF and the National Council of Churches Australia have produced a brochure, Changing Climate, Changing Creation, which is being distributed to churches across the country.http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=410 The brochure encourages Australian Christians to: write to or visit their federal MP and ask what they are doing to address the threat of climate change; find out more about reducing energy and water usage and waste at home; and take action on climate change within churches and small groups. Janette Hartz-Karp writes that "to deal with the complexity of climate change and oil dependency, we need a radical rethink of how to engage citizens in meaningful, influential dialogue" [12] Deliberative democracy presents a wide range of strategies to involve communities in these important decisions. Ipswich Green was formed by an automotive dealer to provide like minded businesses a way of engaging the community regarding carbon emissions. Legal action Groups including Rising Tide http://www.risingtide.org.au/ and Queensland Conservation http://www.qccqld.org.au/climate_change/latestnews.htm have initiated legal challenges to coal mines under the Commonwealth EPBC legislation. In late 2006, Queensland Conservation lodged an objection to the greenhouse gas emissions from a large coal mine expansion proposed by Xstrata Coal Queensland Pty Ltd. QC's action aimed to have the true costs of the greenhouse gas emissions from coal mining recognised. The Newlands Coal Mine Expansion will produce 28.5 million tonnes of coal over its fifteen years of operation. The mining, transport and use of this coal will emit 84 million tonnes of C02 into the atmosphere. Queensland Conservation aims to have reasonable and practical measures imposed on new mines to avoid, reduce or offset the emissions from the mining, transport and use of their coal. The Land and Resources Tribunal ruled against the case.http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s1849776.htm Peter Gray s win in the NSW Planning and Environment Court pushing the state government to consider climate change impacts in its assessment of new developments in particular in relation to its failure to do so with Centennial Coal s proposed Anvil Hill mine.http://www.risingtide.org.au/campaigns/mining Movement building The Rainforest Information Centre plans a road show of Eastern states in the first half of 2007. The workshops will comprise a brief summary of the problem and forty minute presentation on despair and empowerment before encouraging participants to consider how to get active at a neighbourhood or community level. The intention is to establish new climate action groups and, where they exist already, to provide support, direction and connections.http://www.rainforestinfo.org.au/climate/roadshow.htm The Climate Action Network of Australia (CANA) coordinate communication and collaboration between 38 Australian NGOs campaigning around climate change.http://www.cana.net.au/

ClimateMovement.org is an initiative of the NSW Nature Conservation Council. The website includes online surveys and promotion of community events including a renewable energy forum. The project encourages people to start and register new climate action groups.http://www.climatemovement.org.au/ Walk Against Warming: annual community event supported by several NGOs. Drew 40,000 in Sydney in November 2006.http://www.walkagainstwarming.org/ Friends of the Earth s Climate Justice campaign and work with Pacific Island and faith-based communities.http://www.foe.org.au/nc/nc_climate.htm Online organising GetUp! Organised online action around nine key campaigns, including climate action. Promoting five policy asks. Regular email updates to subscribers.http://www.getup.org.au/index.asp Direct Action Rising Tide, a Newcastle-based crew, have organised some excellent actions to build pressure for a shift from coal dependence. In February 2007, more than 100 small and medium craft, including swimmers and people on surfboards, gathered in the harbour as well as on its shores as part of the peaceful demonstration. No-one was arrested even though the group attempted to surround a large freight ship as it entered the port.http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200702/s1845409.htm In 2005, Greenpeace activists chained themselves to a loader in a Gippsland power station's coal pit.http://www.news.com.au/sundayheraldsun/story/0,,21089103-5005961,00.html Policy advocacy WWF Australia's 'Clean Energy Future for Australia' outlines a range of policy recommendations for meeting electricity needs sustainably.http://wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/cleanenergyfuture/ The Climate Institute is a newly-formed policy think tank and advocacy NGO.http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/cia1/index.php Social justice groups TEAR Australia has joined with other aid and development organisations on the Climate Change and Development NGO Roundtable.http://www.tear.org.au/advocacy/climate/ Individual action Making various personal choices can be an effective method of fighting climate change[10]. The Environmental Protection Agency's Personal Emissions Calculator[11] is a tool for measuring the impact that individual choices (often money saving) can have.

Lifestyle Shopping: by making strategic consumer choices, one can reduce the production of greenhouse gases. Purchasing energy-efficient products helps reduce the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. For example, aluminum packaging has a much more energy intensive production process than plastic packaging, and therefore higher greenhouse emission . Recycling: Buying products that are reusable or recyclable, or contain reduced packaging, can save a significant part of the energy and resources required for manufacturing new goods. By recycling paper, cardboard, glass or metal, an average family could reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by up to one ton annually. Cutting down on products used around the home, especially power-intensive electric products such as desktops, can have a large effect on overall emissions. Public transport: More frequent use of public transportation helps the environment by reducing the use of cars. Boats and ferries are the most efficient method of fossil fuel transport, followed by trains, then buses. Airplanes can be more than ten times less energy-efficient than cars. Walking is the least impactful mode of transportation, followed by the bicycle, whose usage produces no carbon emissions. (The manufacturing of bicycles does emit carbon dioxide and other pollutants.) Trees: Protecting forests and planting new trees contributes to the absorption of carbon dioxide from the air. There are many opportunities to plant trees in the yard, along roads, in parks, and in public gardens. In addition, some charities plant fast-growing trees -- for as little as $US0.10 per tree -- to help people in tropical developing countries restore the productivity of their landshttp://www.treesftf.org/about.htm. Conversely, clearing old-growth forests adds to the carbon in the atmosphere, so buying non-old-growth paper is good for the climate as well as the forest. Labels: The Energy Star label can be seen on many household appliances, home electronics, office equipment, heating and cooling equipment, windows, residential light fixtures, and other products. Energy Star products use less energy. Green Electricity Watch http://www.greenelectricitywatch.org.au/ is an independent ranking of GreenPower electricity products offered by Australian electricity retailers, providing consumers with a simple guide to all the GreenPower products available and which ones make a real difference in reducing global warming. It is an initiative of The Total Environment Centre, Australian Conservation Foundation and WWF Australia http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=1020. Cars: Purchasing a vehicle which gets high gas mileage helps to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. Renewable energy: The use of alternative energy sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal, and hydro energy, is gaining increased support worldwide. The wind energy produced in Denmark, for example, provides about 20 percent of the country's total electricity needs[12]. These methods of energy production emit no greenhouse gases once they are up and running. Many energy suppliers in various countries worldwide have options to purchase part or pure "green energy." Carbon offsets: The principle of carbon offset is thus: one decides that they don't want to be responsible

for accelerating climate change, and they've already made efforts to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions, so they decide to pay someone else to further reduce their net emissions by planting trees or by taking up low-carbon technologies. Every unit of carbon that is absorbed by trees -- or not emitted due to your funding of renewable energy deployment -- offsets the emissions from their fossil fuel use. In many cases, funding of renewable energy, energy efficiency, or tree planting -- particularly in developing nations -- can be a relatively cheap way of making an individual "carbon neutral". Carbon offset providers -- some as inexpensive as US$0.11 per metric ton (US$0.10 per US ton) of carbon dioxide -- are referenced below under Lifestyle Action. Using less animal products: The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization reports that rearing livestock contributes more greenhouse gases than all fossil fuel burning combined.[13] A 2006 study from the Department of Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago found the difference between a vegan diet and red meat diet is equivalent to driving a sedan compared to a sport utility vehicle.[14][15] See also Business action on climate change Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Low-carbon economy Proposed oil phase-out in Sweden One Watt Initiative Mobile Emission Reduction Credit (MERC) The Cool War Step It Up 2007 References 1. ^ Hamilton, Clive (2007), "Scorched: The Dirty Politics of Climate Change" 2. ^ Ehrlich, Paul "Betrayal of Science and Reason" 3. ^ [13] 4. ^ Meyer, Aubrey (2000), "Contraction and Convergence:The Global Solution to Climate Change" Schumacher Briefings 5, published by Green Books on behalf of the Schumacher Society 5. ^ [14] 6. ^ [15] 7. ^ Hamilton Clive (2007) "Scorcher: the dirty politics of climate change" 8. ^ [16] 9. ^ Sydney Morning Herald 10. ^ Heede, Richard (2002-04-09). Household Solutions. Rocky Mountain Institute. Retrieved on 2007-

07-07. As we ll see below, homeowners can take a measured approach to emissions reduction, gradually saving and investing small amounts of capital, and far exceed the U.S. s Kyoto Protocol commitment to reduce all emissions of greenhouse gases to 7 per cent below 1990 emissions by 2012. 11. ^ Personal Emissions Calculator - Climate Change - What You Can Do. United States Environmental Protection Agency. Retrieved on 2007-07-07. 12. ^ Wind energy. Ris National Laboratory. Retrieved on 2007-07-07. 13. ^ Steinfeld, Henning, et al. (2006). "Livestock's long shadow. Environmental issues and options" (PDF). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Livestock, Environment and Development (LEAD) Initiative. Retrieved on 2007-03-30. 14. ^ Tady, Megan. "Meat Contributes to Climate Change, UN Study Confirms" (cfm), The New Standard, 2006-12-07. Retrieved on 2007-03-29. 15. ^ Eshel, Gidon; Martin, Pamela A. (2005-04-15). "Diet, Energy, and Global Warming". Earth Interactions 10: 1-17. Retrieved on 2007-03-28. External links Climate change science Tyndall Centre for Climate Research Hadley Centre Climate Models Union of Concerned Scientists Real Climate Climate scientists blog Intro to Climate Change Climate Change Facts and Impacts Protest and direct action groups Campaign against Climate Change International climate change protest movement home page Stop Climate Chaos A coalition of 50 NGOs from the United Kingdom, working together on a common concern home page Rising Tide UK A network of groups and individuals that takes creative action on the root causes of climate chaos, and promotes socially just, ecological alternatives to fossil fuels, working to dismantle the oil industry home page Rising Tide Australia An action group based in Newcastle, the largest coal export port in the world. Not affiliated with Rising Tide UK, although generally in agreement on most issues. Indymedia Climate Change Project Indymedia coverage of climate change. Campus Climate Challenge Resources for youth to make a difference on the campus or in their

community Step It Up 2007 Organizing hub for a National Day of Climate Action (April 14th, 2007) when people will gather all over the US to say "Step it up, Congress! Cut Carbon 80% by 2050." Climaction A coalition advocating System Change not Climate Change in Aotearoa / New Zealand - for anyone interested in action toward local sustainability, but especially ordinary people and community groups. Seeks to link up community and personal action for sustainability worldwide. The Cool War An adhoc group of scientists, business, and NGOs to fight chemical giants and promote the natural refrigerant CO2 in car air conditioning Alliance for CO2 Solutions International political action Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) EU Climate Change Program EU climate policy. Global Climate Change Action Group An ACTION based forum/group - to exchange ideas, pass on and store information. Discuss actions to gain public awareness and pressure our elected representative to take immediate action(s) to mitigate Climate Change. Sub-national action US Clean Energy States An alliance of US States working together to promote renewable energy Cities for Climate Protection Reductions in local greenhouse gas emissions, improvements in air quality, and enhanced urban livability Nottingham Declaration A statement signed by many county councils in the UK, stating their determination to play their part in mitigating climate change What is your state doing? database of US states and their action on climate change Zero Carbon City Catalyzing action by people, communities and cities on the challenge of climate change SustainUS The US Youth Network for Sustainable Development Roanoke Valley Cool Cities Coalition RVCCC - Southwest Virginia's model for community organizing to combat global warming Grant Thornton International Business Report Energy & Environment survey Lifestyle action

Climate change lifestyle choices, Find out how to make a difference in your every day life Climate Change Action Information about personal energy use, with outlines of some of the major issues in energy policy Green Pack Project of the Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe Global warming and Climate change Temperatures Instrumental record Satellite record Past 1000 years Since 1880 Geologic record Scientific opinion on climate change Anthropogenic: Carbon dioxide Climate sensitivity Deforestation Global dimming Global warming potential Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gasesKeeling Curve Urban heat island Natural: Cloud forcing Glaciation Global cooling Ocean variability Orbital variations Plate tectonics Radiative forcing Solar variation Volcanism Global climate model Ozone depletion Ocean acidification Global warming controversy Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scientists opposing the mainstream assessment Sea level rise Glacier retreat Climate change and agriculture National Assessment on Climate Change Economics of global warmingShutdown of thermohaline circulation Individual and political action on climate change Kyoto Protocol: Clean Development Mechanism Schemes: Emissions trading Personal carbon trading Carbon tax Carbon offsets Carbon dioxide sink (Carbon sequestration) Energy conservation: Efficient energy use Renewable energy Renewable energy commercializationRenewable energy development Soft energy path United Kingdom Climate Change Programme European Climate Change Programme

Causes

Models Issues Politics

Effects

Mitigation

Adaptation

Report's stark warning on climate

Analysis By Robert Peston Business Editor, BBC News

The Stern Review says that climate change represents the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen. And on the basis of this intellectually rigorous and thorough report, it is hard to disagree. Sir Nicholas Stern, a distinguished Power firms have to cut emissions development economist and by 60-70%, the report says former chief economist at the World Bank, is not a man given to hyperbole. Yet he says "our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th Century". His report gives prescriptions for how to minimise this economic and social disruption. His central argument is that spending large sums of money now on measures to reduce carbon emissions will bring dividends on a colossal scale. It would be wholly irrational, therefore, not to spend this money. However, he warns that we are too late to prevent any deleterious consequences from climate change. The prospects are worst for Africa and developing countries, so the richer nations must provide them with financial and technological help to prepare and adapt. Tough decisions He believes it is practical to aim for a stabilisation of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere of 500 to 550 parts per million of carbon

dioxide equivalent by 2050 - which is double pre-industrial levels and compares with 430ppm today. Carbon dioxide itself stands at about 380ppm, but Sir Nicholas has used the higher figure of 430 which incorporates other greenhouse gases such as methane. But even stabilising at that level will probably mean significant climate change. Even to stabilise at that level, emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) would need to be cut by an average of three-quarters by 2050 - a frightening statistic. For 150 years, we've pumped carbon into the atmosphere whether through energy or transport - as if it had no price

As well as decarbonising the David Miliband, Environment power sector by 60%-70%, there Secretary will also have to be an end to deforestation - emissions from deforestation are estimated at 'High cost' of climate change more than 18% of global emissions, more than transport. And there will have to be deep cuts in emissions from transport. The costs of these changes should be around 1% of global GDP by 2050 - in other words the world would be 1% poorer than we would otherwise have been, which would be significant but far from prohibitive. To be clear, this does not mean we would be 1% poorer than we are today, but that global growth will be slower. The way to look at this 1% is as an investment. Because the costs of not taking this action are mind-bogglingly large. Rising estimates Sir Nicholas Stern's start point is economic modelling carried out in other studies showing that a scenario of 2-3 degrees of warming would lead to a permanent loss of up to 3% in global world output, compared to what would have happened without climate change. But he says those estimates are too low.

He believes 5-6 degrees of warming is a "real possibility" for the next century. Having fed the probabilities of the various different degrees of global warming into his economic model, he estimates that "business as usual" would lead to a permanent Sir Nicholas warns the world will reduction in global per-capita face more floods and droughts consumption of at least 5%. But, that estimate does not include the financial cost of the direct impact on human health and the environment from global warming, or the disproportionate costs on poor regions of the world. It also ignores so-called "feedback mechanisms", which may mean that as the stock of greenhouse gases increases there is a disproportionate rise in warming with each new increment in emissions. Unfair burden Putting all these factors together, he comes up with the stark conclusion that if we do nothing to stem climate change, there could be a permanent reduction in consumption per head of 20%. In other words, everyone in the world would be a fifth poorer than they would otherwise have been. Even worse, these costs will not be shared evenly. There will be a disproportionate burden on the poorest countries. So here's the winning formula: Stern says spend 1% of world GDP to be 20% richer than we will otherwise be. It looks like a no-brainer. There is another way of presenting this analysis of benefits versus costs. Stern says that if you take the present value (the value in today's money) of the benefits over the coming years of taking action to stabilise greenhouse gases by 2050, then deduct the costs, you end up with a "profit" of $2.5 trillion (1.32 trillion). Any way you look at it, the financial case for tackling climate change

looks watertight. Hurdles That said, there are great impediments to harvesting this dividend. One is the obvious problem, which is that it requires collective, coordinated action by most of the world's governments - and securing the requisite consensus on the way forward will not be simple. In the interests of fairness, Stern We should prepare for a argues that the richer countries whole series of shocks from the should take responsibility for effects of climate change that are between 60% and 80% of already unavoidable reductions in emissions from 1990 levels by 2050. Robert Peston, BBC Business Editor But assuming that consensus is reached, what is the best way to correct the grotesque market failure that is currently taking us on a path to poverty? How do we start to pay a price for carbon that reflects its true economic and social costs, or a price that includes the present value of future climate change? There are two main ways of achieving this. One is through taxation. The other is through rationing the amount of carbon emissions that any business - or any individual - can make, and then creating a proper global market. Such a move would allow any business or institution that wants to emit more than its entitlement to buy that right, and any business that emits less than its entitlement to sell the unused portion of its entitlement - effectively carbon trading. Another imperative for governments is to encourage research and development on low-carbon technologies. Governments must also encourage "behavioural change", through regulation - such as imposing tighter standards on the energy efficiency of buildings - as well as educating the public about the true costs of wasting energy. Trouble ahead

That said, we should prepare for a whole series of shocks from the effects of climate change that are already unavoidable. There will probably be both more droughts and more floods. An increased incidence of devastating storms is expected. And there is an increased risk of famine in the poorest countries. So we must start to get better at monitoring of climate conditions Poor countries are expected to be and adapt ourselves for the new hit hardest by global warming world. That means reinforcing buildings and infrastructure to make them sturdier in the face of extreme weather conditions, investment in new dykes, and support for financial markets so that it is possible to purchase insurance against climate-related disaster. It will all be very expensive, disproportionately so for developing countries. So Stern argues, and it's hard to disagree, that there is a strong moral obligation on the richer countries to help the poorest ones protect themselves against the very worst that may transpire.

Biodiversity and climate change: Our work

Our work

Background

Support to Conventions

History

UNEP-WCMC aims to put authoritative knowledge on biodiversity and climate change at the heart of decision-making, enabling better links between the climate and biodiversity policy worlds. There is an urgent need for accessible information on the likely impacts of climate change on biodiversity. As measures to address climate change and cope with its effects are increasingly deployed, it is also critical to analyse their possible benefits and risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services. UNEP-WCMC works with a wide range of partners, including members of theCambridge Conservation Forum climate change group. We are now actively developing projects, seeking new partners and looking for support in order to use our resources in the unfolding debate. The current priority areas at UNEP-WCMC are: Bufo periglenes - the golden toad. This species' extinction has been attributed to climate change. Charles Smith, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Supporting the development of equitable mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in developing countries (RED-DC). A successful mechanism could increase the resources available to support forest conservation and sustainable use while supporting people dependent on forest ecosystems Supporting countries decision making in relation to RED-DC mechanisms and their implementation Supporting analysis, modelling and mapping of the potential impacts of biofuel production on biodiversity, in order to minimise negative impacts and to support the development of sustainability criteria. Supporting the synthesis and uptake of guidance on practical adaptation to climate change in biodiversity conservation. Supporting the sharing and appropriate use of biodiversity data and models in assessing potential impacts of climate change

Polar bears on the pack ice in the Beaufort Sea. Steve Amstrup, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Energy options

Climate change can be addressed by reducing the greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere, or increasing the rate of sequestration of greenhouse gases into the land and sea. The energy and forestrysectors can make a major contribution to addressing climate change. However, mitigation options within these sectors need careful planning to avoid negative impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biofuels The move towards energy production from biofuels, intended to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, already poses a threat to natural ecosystems including tropical forests. In some cases, the greenhouse gas emission benefits are also questionable: in South-east Asia, Carbon dioxide emissions from the conversion of peat swamp forest to oil palm plantations outweigh any gains from the use of biodiesel from palm oil. The biofuel agenda could conflict with efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation, maintain food security and biodiversity. In the context of a growing global population, which has already co-opted around 40% of the world s terrestrial primary production, there are limitations to the capacity of productive lands to supply our energy needs. Expansion will therefore entail the use of more marginal lands, meaning that more land use change is required per unit yield, and yield is more variable between years.

There is also a need to evaluate impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services arising from likely changes in existing agricultural systems. For example, the replacement of local cultivars by monocultural biofuel crops could reduce the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change (especially to reductions in mean moisture availability and increase in drought frequency). Second-generation biofuels are being developed based on cellulosic materials. There is some potential for biodiversity benefits through specific changes in land use: for example, the restoration of some tree cover on degraded tropical lands could restore some ecosystem service benefits, though short of full ecosystem restoration; and some North American research highlights the potential for biofuels derived from low-input high-diversity mixtures of native grassland perennials. Resources The Last Stand of the Orangutan . State of emergency: illegal logging, fire and palm oil in Indonesia s national parks. (2007) Notification for Convention on Biological Diversity consultation on biofuels (2007) UN submission to EC consultation on biofuels (2007) Biofuels - is the cure worse than the disease? OECD Roundtable on Sustainable Development, Sept 2007 Carbon-Negative Biofuels from Low-Input High-Diversity Grassland Biomass.Science (2006) Wetlands International - Central Kalimantan Peatlands Project Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil Global Bioenergy Partnership Windpower Wind energy is a key renewable resource for electricity generation. However, both terrestrial and offshore wind turbines need to be sited carefully to minimise disturbance to wildlife, bird collisions, interference with migratory flyways and development on endangered habitats or those critical for wildlife populations. In 2002, the Conference of the Parties of theConvention on Migratory Species adopted Resolution 7.5 on Wind Turbines and Migratory Species. Resources Ibis special issue on renewable energy and birds (2006) Birdlife International Hydroelectricity Hydropower can provide a renewable energy resource developed at small or large scales. The energy gain can be accompanied by negative environmental and social impacts, including losses of freshwater, terrestrial and coastal biodiversity. The impacts of micro-hydropower facilities supporting small

communities are minimal, but large dams typically flood large areas. They may disrupt the natural flow regime of large rivers, affecting flood plains or estuarine discharge downstream. Smaller dams may still affect migratory species such as salmon and eels; mitigation measures such as fish ladders are sometimes used to limit these impacts. On a positive note, dams often create new habitats for waterbirds, which may help to increase resilience to climate change amongst migratory species. Flooding of forested or peat areas can cause considerable emissions of methane and carbon dioxide as a result of decomposition of organic matter. This has been reported as a particular problem when tropical rainforest is flooded without prior removal of trees. Resources World Water Development Report 2. UN (2006) Do hydroelectric dams mitigate global warming? The Case of Brazil's Curu-una Dam. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (2005) Biodiversity Impacts of Large Dams. IUCN/UNEP (2001) World Commission on Dams (1998-2001) Micro-hydropower at United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Biodiversity and climate change: Conservation management -Whilst it is critical for the world to become more committed to and effective at limiting climate change, some climate change is now inevitable. Even with mitigation measures in place, there is an immediate need to plan and implement adaptation measures to deal with existing and projected changes in climate. As some ecosystems and species are especially vulnerable to climate change, there may be a need to reconsider conservation priorities at all scales. As intact, well-connected ecosystems are believed to be more likely to be resilient to climate change, many existing conservation measures aimed at preventing ecosystem damage and fragmentation will also help to limit its impacts. It will be increasingly necessary to enable the movement of species to new geographical locations, as they follow the shifting climate. Radical ideas such as assisting the migration of species to newly suitable environments may also need to be considered, but the risks of unexpected consequences must also be taken into account. Resources Web-based Guidance on the Integration of Biodiversity within Adaptation Planning Conservation of Biodiversity in a Changing Climate. Conservation Biology (2002)

Biodiversity and climate change: Adaptation impacts

Increasing attention is being paid to climate change adaptation measures for biodiversity. However, adaptation measures in other sectors may have positive or negative impacts on biodiversity. In a positive example, the restoration of mangrove forests to increase coastal protection provides a habitat for aquatic and arboreal species. A more negative impact might arise from the increased use of insecticide in the effort to prevent the spread of mosquitoes, which will be able to colonise higher altitudes until warmer conditions. Many least developed countries have developed National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) under the auspices of UNFCCC. Sectors discussed may include agriculture, water supply, coastal protection, forestry, health, tourism and biodiversity. Resources National Adaptation Programmes of Action NAPA Resources and Knowledge Base UN-backed meeting on climate change's impact on agriculture wraps up Posted in Environmental Sustainability

agriculture

climate change UN News Centre With climate change threatening agriculture in Asia, 10 nations met in a three-day United Nationssponsored meeting in Hanoi, Viet Nam, to discuss sustainable farming practices to feed growing populations.

The UN World Meteorological Organization held its Regional Association Asia Working Group on Agricultural Meteorology meeting from 17-19 December, which was attended by representatives from China, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Russia, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Viet Nam. Global warming is responsible for more frequent and serious droughts, floods and storms across Asia, and this is expected to intensify in the future. Seven of the 10 countries most affected by extreme weather events last year were Asian: the Philippines, the Democratic People??s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Indonesia, Viet Name, India, China and Afghanistan. This year, floods in China have forced nearly 800,000 people from their homes, caused almost $400 million worth of damage and affected over 300,000 hectares of crops. Meanwhile in Bangladesh, more than 3,000 people were killed and millions were left homeless when Cyclone Sidr struck on 15 November. In view of the growing populations in Asia and the need for secure access to food for these populations, indoor and urban agriculture is also receiving special attention to make most efficient use of space using controlled environments, said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. Participants conferred on issues critical to promoting sustainable agriculture in the region, including drought response, impacts of climate change, water resources, pest and diseases. WMO recommends countries invest more in urban and indoor agriculture that can assist greatly in providing food for the hundreds of millions of people living in Asian cities whose populations are surging. The agency also measures providing seasonal prediction and early warning systems are crucial, as well as monitoring systems for regional droughts to guide farmers?? decisions on when, where and what crop is best to grow. Forecasts can also help in better managing the spread of pests and diseases.

Climate change and its impacts is of great concern to humanity and is one of the most serious problems facing sustainable development worldwide. Through the network of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of its Members, WMO plays an important role in weather and climate observation and monitoring, understanding of climate processes, the development of clear, precise and user-targeted information and predictions and the provision of sector-specific climate services, including advice, tools and expertise, to meet the needs of adaptation strategies and decision-making.

Climate information for adaptation and development needs pdf

Role of WMO and NMHSs in the implementation of the Nairobi Work Programme pdf

The Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change pdf

WMO s role in global climate change issues pdf

United Nations Climate Change Conference Thirteenth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and third session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, 3-14 December 2007)

The Conference opened on 3 December 2007 in Bali, Indonesia, and will run until 14 December. Governments will discuss how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions after the current Kyoto Protocol targets expire in 2012.

WMO's participation in the Conference Statement by the Secretary-General of WMO to the Conference (Click here for webcast) WMO's contribution to improved decision making for climate adaptation position paper Climate information for adaptation and development needs (WMO-No. 1025) Side event

Fighting Poverty and Climate Change must go hand in hand, concludes eminent panel Posted in Asia

Environmental Sustainability

Global Partnership

adaption financing Bali

climate change

Official Development Assistance (ODA) Bert Koenders, Minister for Development Cooperation for the Government of Netherlands, called for adaptation funding from developed countries to be clearly in addition to ODA commitments. Speaking at a side event organized jointly by the Government of Indonesia and the UN Millennium Campaign, he cautioned that climate change should not become an excuse for developed countries to create more non-tariff barriers. Mari Pangestu, Minister for Trade, Republic of Indonesia, underlined that development is the common denominator in the trade negotiations under the Doha Round and in the Climate Change discussions in Bali. The impact on the MDGs and poor people should be the touchstone on which we can judge the success of these talks she emphasized. In his first international appearance, Minister Peter Garrett, reiterated the new Australian Government s strong commitment to both meeting the MDGs and Climate Change agenda with a particular focus on the Pacific and other neighbouring countries. Atiq Rahman, key author of the IPCCC Report, and a leading climate change thinker from Bangladesh, reminded the audience that poor people do not have a choice on whether they will address climate change or poverty first. Salil Shetty, Director, Millennium Campaign, emphasised that the MDGs were absent from the Climate Change discourse in spite of one of the MDGs being focused on environment and climate change. The event was moderated by the UN Ambassador for MDGs in Asia Pacific with a welcome address from Bambang Widianto, Expert Staff to the Minister of National Development Planning for Human Resources and Poverty Affairs, Government of Indonesia.

Climate change has no respect for borders and affects all, says Ban Ki-moon Posted in Asia

Environmental Sustainability

Bali

Ban Ki-moon

climate change UN News Centre Global warming impacts everyone regardless of national borders, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said today, calling on negotiators at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia, to overcome differences and agree on a road map to tackle the issue. Climate change doesn t care if you are coming from developing or industrialized countries, he told reporters during a visit to Timor-Leste, warning that poorer nations will be hit hardest by the phenomenon. Acknowledging that some countries have concerns about a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Mr. Ban said that the time will come in the future to reach a consensus on that. But our goal at this time is to launch negotiations, he said. The Secretary-General stated that industrialized countries especially the biggest emitters should take the lead in addressing climate change. If we are not able to agree on this, I would say the negotiators will have to bear their historical responsibilities for the whole international community and the future of planet Earth. Mr. Ban has repeatedly stressed the importance of creating a road map to tackle climate change and a timeline to produce a new agreement on emissions targets by 2009 so that it can enter into force after the Kyoto Protocol, the current regime, expires in 2012.

That event will be co-hosted by France, Norway, the European Commission and Tony Blair, the Special Representative for the Middle East diplomatic Quartet, comprising the UN, the United States, the European Union and Russia.

What Is The Greenhouse Effect? Seen from space, our atmosphere is but a tiny layer of gas around a huge bulky planet. But it is this gaseous outer ring and its misleadingly called greenhouse effect that makes life on Earth possible and that could destroy life as we know it.

The Greenhouse Effect (click image to download graphic) Global warming causes and effects at a glance

The sun is the Earth s primary energy source, a burning star so hot that we can feel its heat from over 150 million kilometers away. Its rays enter our atmosphere and shower upon on our planet. About one third of this solar energy is reflected back into the universe by shimmering glaciers, water and other bright surfaces. Two thirds, however, are absorbed by the Earth, warming land, oceans, and atmosphere.

Much of this heat radiates back out into space, but some of it is stored in the atmosphere. This process is called the greenhouse effect. Without it, the Earth s average temperature would be a chilling -18 degrees Celsius, even despite the sun s constant energy supply.

In a world like this, life on Earth would probably have never emerged from the sea. Thanks to the greenhouse effect, however, heat emitted from the Earth is trapped in the atmosphere, providing us with a comfortable average temperature of 14 degrees.

Sunrays enter the glass roof and walls of a greenhouse. But once they heat up the ground, which, in turn, heats up the air inside the greenhouse, the glass panels trap that warm air and temperatures increase. But our planet has no glass walls; the only thing that comes close to acting as such is our atmosphere. But unfortunately, in here, processes are way more complicated.

Arctic Meltdown: See how global warming is changing the North Pole

Like a radiator in space Only about half of all solar energy that reaches the Earth is infrared radiation and causes immediate warming when passing the atmosphere. The other half is of a higher frequency, and only translates into heat once it hits Earth and is later reflected back into space as waves of infrared radiation.

This transformation of solar radiation in to infrared radiation is crucial, because infrared radiation can be absorbed by the atmosphere. So, on a cold and clear night, parts of this infrared radiation that would normally dissipate into space get caught up in the Earth s atmosphere. And like a radiator in the middle of a room, our atmosphere radiates this heat into all directions.

Parts of this heat are finally sent out in the frozen nothingness of space, parts of it are sent back to Earth where they step up global temperatures. Just how much warmer it gets down here depends on how much energy is absorbed up there and this, in turn, depends on the atmosphere s composition.

The switch from carbon dioxide to oxygen Nitrogen, oxygen, and argon make up 98 percent of the Earth s atmosphere. But they do not absorb significant amounts of infrared radiation, and thus do not contribute to the greenhouse effect. It is the more exotic components like water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone,methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons that absorb heat and thus increase atmospheric temperatures.

Studies indicate that until some 2.7 billion years ago, there was so much carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane in our atmosphere that average temperatures on Earth were as high as 70 degrees. But bacteria and plants slowly turned CO2 into oxygen and the concentration of CO2 in our current atmosphere dropped to just about 0.038 percent or 383 parts per million (ppm), a unit of measurement used for very low concentrations of gases that has become a kind of currency in climate change debates.

Minuscule changes global impact But while we are still far from seeing major concentrations of CO2 in our atmosphere, slight changes already alter the way our celestial heating system works. Measurements of carbon dioxide amounts from Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii show that CO2 has increased from about 313 ppm in 1960 to about 375 ppm in 2005.

That means for every million particles in our atmosphere, there are now 62 CO2-particles more than in 1960. Even if this does not seem like much, scientists say this increase most probably caused by human activities is mainly responsible for rising global temperaturesthroughout the last decades. Related Articles Carbon Dioxide - Endless Warming India Climate Change Profile Part 6: Receding Glaciers Spell Disaster Even if the term greenhouse effect is somewhat of a misnomer, it still might be a useful handle from which the public can grasp an otherwise intricate natural process. Most people can relate to how hot and stuffy a greenhouse can get. Now that the Earth has started to heat up, we realize that our own global greenhouse has no window that we can open to catch some fresh air.

editor: Thilo Kunzemann

our main naturally occurring gases that a; responsible for the Greenhouse Effect