Measuring Social Exclusion

RESEARCH PAPER 99/11
6 October 1999
MEASURING SOCIAL EXCLUSION
This research paper presents an initial scorecard of indicators of social exclusion in Scotland. The indicators, covering six dimensions of social exclusion, illustrate the current scale and distribution of exclusion. Indicators such as these could be used to inform measurement of progress in reducing social exclusion. The paper concludes with a consideration of the value of this and alternative means of tracking levels of exclusion.
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Research Paper 99/11
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SUMMARY
The term social exclusion is a recent addition to popular debates about poverty and deprivation. The 500 references to social exclusion in the Scottish press in the past two years is ten times the number in the two preceding years1. Its emergence can be traced to the priorities adopted by the Labour Government and, in particular the establishment of the Scottish Social Inclusion Network and, in England, the Social Exclusion Unit. In establishing their terms of reference, both bodies referred to the Prime Ministers definition: social exclusion is a shorthand label for what can happen when individuals or areas suffer from a combination of linked problems such as unemployment, poor skills, low incomes, poor housing, high crime environments, bad health and family breakdown2. Both the UK Government and the Executive see measuring the scale of social exclusion and establishing indicators against which the promotion of social inclusion might be measured as a priority. Here, the Social Inclusion Network has established an Evaluation Framework Action Team to make recommendations on suitable Scottish indicators. The teams conclusions will be reported in the social inclusion plan due to be published later this year. At UK level the DSS has produced the first annual report on tackling social exclusion3, setting out a range of indicators for the UK and England. The need for measurement of social exclusion is also widely recognised outside of government.4 This paper outlines a possible scorecard of indicators for Scotland to show, across a range of elements of social exclusion, recent trends in the scale and distribution of exclusion. A scorecard such as this might be a useful first step in tracking future trends in social exclusion. The scorecard approach is simplistic, however, and the paper concludes with a look at ways in which more sophisticated means of tracking social exclusion and evaluating action to promote social inclusion might be developed in future.
1 2
3 4
FT Profile Info-Plus database, coverage: Scotsman, Herald, Scotland on Sunday The Scottish Office Social Inclusion Opening the door to a better Scotland (para. 2.1); Social Exclusion Unit Purposes, work priorities and working methods DSS Opportunity for all: Tackling poverty and social exclusion (Cm 4445) See, for example, Scottish Council Foundation Strategies for Social Inclusion; Scottish Poverty Information Unit Poverty data, anti-poverty strategy and Scottish devolution; New Policy Institute Monitoring poverty and social exclusion

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SELECTING INDICATORS ....................................................................................5

Meaning................................................................................................................................................ 5 Data Availibility..................................................................................................................................... 5 Recognition .......................................................................................................................................... 6
AN INITIAL SET OF INDICATORS ........................................................................7

Low Incomes ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Indicator 1: Households Below Half Average Income....................................................................... 10 Indicator 2: People Dependent On Income Support ......................................................................... 11 Indicator 3: Children Entitled To Free School Meals......................................................................... 13 Access To Employment .................................................................................................................. 14 Indicator 4: People Of Working Age Not In Employment.................................................................. 16 Indicator 5: Long-Term Unemployment............................................................................................. 19 Indicator 6: Full-Time Employees On Low Pay ................................................................................. 20 Housing Quality And Availability ................................................................................................... 21 Indicator 7: Overcrowding.................................................................................................................. 23 Indicator 8: Homelessness ................................................................................................................ 24 Education.......................................................................................................................................... 25 Indicator 9: Unauthorised Absence From School.............................................................................. 27 Indicator 10: School Leavers Qualifications ..................................................................................... 28 Indicator 11: Working Age People With No Qualifications ................................................................ 30 Health And Fertility .......................................................................................................................... 32 Indicator 12: Underage Conceptions................................................................................................. 33 Indicator 13: Low Birthweight Babies ................................................................................................ 34 Indicator 14: Premature Deaths......................................................................................................... 36 Citizenship And Community Participation ................................................................................... 38 Indicator 15: Election Turnout............................................................................................................ 40 Indicator 16: Fear Of Selected Crimes .............................................................................................. 41
TOWARDS BETTER MEASUREMENT.............................................................. 43

Improving the scorecard .................................................................................................................... 43 Beyond the scorecard........................................................................................................................ 43

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SELECTING INDICATORS
There are many dimensions to social exclusion and, within each, many indicators which could be selected to illustrate the scale of exclusion. The selection of a manageable set of indicators from the many possibilities is then a matter of judgement. In this paper, seventeen indicators have been selected on the basis of three criteria the meaning of an indicator in terms of how well it relates to a particular aspect of exclusion; the availability of data to illustrate trends in Scotland; and the recognition of an indicator as an important gauge of social exclusion. MEANING It is obviously important that a set of indicators should reflect our understanding of the phenomenon of social exclusion. The definition offered by the Prime Minister (see p.3 above) outlines the key aspects, in the Governments view, of social exclusion. As well as covering each of these aspects a set of indicators should acknowledge the factors identified as common to all aspects of exclusion. These include: the interrelationship between different aspects of exclusion; the extent to which social exclusion is a dynamic process which affects future prospects as well as current circumstances; the relationship between social exclusion and active citizenship.5
It is also important that a particular indicator can be clearly interpreted; a change in a particular indicator should unambiguously represent either a growth or a reduction in the level of exclusion. DATA AVAILIBILITY There is no point in establishing an indicator if sufficient data are not available to support it. Ideally, data would be capable of illustrating past trends, current patterns among different social groups and in different areas of Scotland and should be updated frequently. There are three main sources of data which might be used to support a set of indicators. The Census achieves (close to) 100% coverage of the Scottish population, but the fact that it is undertaken only each ten years means it cannot provide information to track trends.
For discussion of these and other debates around the definition of social exclusion see, for example, Lee & Murie Literature Review of Social Exclusion TSO Central Research Unit 1999; Tony Atkinsons chapter on Social Exclusion, Poverty and Unemployment in Atkinson, A.B. and Hills, J. (eds.) Exclusion, Employment and Opportunity (pp.13-14); and DSS Opportunity for all: Tackling poverty and social exclusion (Cm 4445) (pp 24-26)

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Administrative data from, for example, Benefits Agency records of benefit receipt or schools recording of absence and qualifications is more useful but is restricted to areas where members of the public have direct contact with public authorities. Data on areas such as incomes and living standards is available only from sample surveys. The existing UK Government surveys in these areas the Family Expenditure Survey, Family Resources Survey and General Household Survey have small sample sizes in Scotland (undermining the reliability of the data and prohibiting analysis of groups and areas within Scotland) and do not cover households north of the Caledonian Canal. The availability of survey data will improve over time with the development of the Scottish Household Survey.
RECOGNITION The selection of indicators in this paper has also been informed by indicators recommended and selected in three other reports. In general, indicators have only been included where they, or a close equivalent, are recognised by one or more of these reports as an important marker of exclusion. The three reports are: The first annual report on poverty and social exclusion from the DSS, Opportunity for all: Tackling poverty and social exclusion. This report sets out 39 indicators of success against which the Governments progress will be measured. Indicators are set for either the UK as a whole or for England, depending on the devolution of responsibility. The progress report from the Evaluation Framework Action Team, presented to the Social Inclusion Network in June this year. This proposes 50 indicators for Scotland, not all of which can be measured using currently available data. From outside Government, a report produced in December 1998 by the New Policy Institute for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Monitoring poverty and social exclusion. This recommended 46 indicators, mainly for Great Britain or the UK as a whole.

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AN INITIAL SET OF INDICATORS

Based on the criteria described above, the following sections present 16 indicators which provide an initial scorecard of social exclusion in Scotland. The indicators are organised into 6 themes, covering low incomes; access to employment; housing quality & availability; education; health & fertility; and citizenship & community participation. An introduction to each theme explains its importance, outlines the reasons for selection of particular indicators and suggests further indicators which might be developed in future. The pages for each indicator show, as far as possible, the current scale of exclusion; recent trends; variations between social groups; and variations between areas of Scotland. Comment is also provided on the adequacy of the data underlying each indicator. Wherever possible, an accompanying map illustrates the geographical distribution of exclusion.

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LOW INCOMES
While social exclusion is more than simply lack of income, the two are closely related. Low income is a key aspect of social exclusion. It is both a frequent consequence of
exclusion, most obviously from the labour market, and a cause of exclusion: simply put, a lack of money makes participation in society more difficult. Low incomes are closely associated with ill health and decreased life expectancy. Living in low-income households and areas can also actually increase costs for individuals: for example, insurance and credit 6 are often more expensive for those on low incomes.
The first indicator selected to illustrate the scale of low incomes is the proportion of people in households with less than half average income. This is very much a measure of relative poverty (or income inequality) rather than absolute poverty - a comparison with others incomes rather than with a defined subsistence income. It has been widely used by poverty The value of half average income (in April 1999 prices) commentators for many years, Single person: 74 per week Lone parent with one child (aged 2-4): 98 per week and recent statements by Couple with two children (aged 2-4): 182 per week ministers of both the Scottish Couple with no children: 132 per week Executive7 and the UK Government8 have illustrated the extent to which this is now the closest approximation to an official definition of poverty. It also mirrors the Irish Governments use of 40%, 50% and 60% of average income as markers of poverty. It is recommended as an indicator by the New Policy Institute report and, implicitly, by the DSS report. The Evaluation Framework Action Teams progress report, however, recommends an indicator based on proportions of median income9, which would fit with the figures produced by Eurostat for EU countries. 10 The second indicator is the proportion of people living on Income Support or income-related Jobseekers Allowance11. This offers an alternative, lower, threshold of low income based on the statutory definition of the Income Support thresholds (at 1999/00 rates) minimum amount a family Single person: 51 per week needs to live on. It is included Lone parent with one child (aged under 11): 87 per week Couple with two children (aged under 11): 135 per week here mainly because the current Couple with no children: 81 per week availability of Scottish data is greater than for other indicators of income.
6 7
8 9
10
11
The Scottish Office Social Inclusion: opening the door to a better Scotland para. 2.8 See, for example, The Scottish Office News Release 1365/99 Poverty taken to task by new ministerial team 29 June 1999 See, for example, HC Deb 14 April 1999 c244-5w Given the distribution of incomes (which is distorted by the presence of a small number of very high earners) median income is lower than average (mean) income. More detail on the half average income measure is available in Scottish Parliament Information Centre Research Note 99-07 Poverty in Scotland Income-related Jobseekers Allowance replaced Income Support for unemployed people from October 1996.

8
The third indicator is the proportion of children eligible for free school meals. Eligibility is based on receipt of Income Support or income-related Jobseekers Allowance so this is indicator simply focuses the second indicator on children. It is recommended as an indicator in the Evaluation Framework Action Teams progress report.
Possible Future Indicators

The most important addition would be a longitudinal indicator which tracks income dynamics and captures the persistence of low income. It is long periods of low income which have most impact on life chances and on future prospects of escaping poverty. The planned increase in Scottish coverage of the British Household Panel Survey will enable analysis in this area from around 2001. It may also be useful to develop an indicator based on self-reported difficulty in managing financially. First results from the Scottish Household Survey suggest that some 9% of the population report financial difficulties, a rate which is highest among low income households and households headed by a young person. As the survey develops it will be possible to produce a detailed indicator in this area.

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INDICATOR 1: HOUSEHOLDS BELOW HALF AVERAGE INCOME There are around 1.2 million people in Scotland living in households with less than half the average income for Great Britain, some 25% of the population. Most at risk are the young and the old; 34% of children and 29% of pensioners live in such households.12 Variation between social groups Figures for Great Britain as a whole show the extent to which the risk of low income varies between different types of family.
Figure 1
Population below selected proportions of average income, GB 1996-97

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
P ensio ner Co uple Single Co uple with Pensio ner Children Co uple witho ut Children Single with Children Single Witho ut Children
% of group
below 40% below 50% below 60%
Source: DSS Households below average income 1979- 1996/97
Variation geographically Figures showing distribution within Scotland are not available.
Indicator Quality While the data for this indicator come from an established official source, figures for Scotland are not routinely published. There are also problems of representativeness (the survey underlying the data does not cover Scottish islands or areas north of the Caledonian Canal) and sample size (the Scottish sample is not large enough to enable analysis of low incomes by social group). Development of the Scottish Household Survey should ease each of these problems, and will also enable incomes to be expressed as a proportion of the Scottish (rather than the British) average.
12
The Scottish Office Social Inclusion: opening the door to a better Scotland para. 2.9

10
INDICATOR 2: PEOPLE DEPENDENT ON INCOME SUPPORT There are around 800,000 people in Scotland living in families receiving Income Support (IS) or income-related Jobseekers Allowance (JSA), equivalent to 16% of the population. Overall numbers have been falling, although the number of cases related to disability continues to grow.
Table 1
(a)
Beneficiaries
of Income Support/income-related Jobseeker's Allowance
Scotland, May 1995 to May 1999, by type of claimant '000s 1995 1996 Pensioners Disabled Lone Parents Unemployed Other Total: '000s Total: % of population 202 143 262 224 45 876 17.1% 201 154 261 202 52 870 17.0%
1997 198 164 259 174 54 849 16.6%
1998 193 170 246 150 54 813 15.9%
1999 189 175 241 147 48 800 15.6%
a) Claimants, plus their partners and dependants Source: DSS Analytical Services Division, personal communication
Estimates from the Scottish Poverty Information Unit suggest that people who do not take up their entitlement to IS may add at least 150,000 to the total number of people in families with incomes at or below IS levels13. Variation between social groups An analysis of Scottish House Condition Survey data commissioned by The Scottish Office illustrates the extent to which entitlement to IS varies between household types. Overall, the report found that 25% of Scottish households were entitled; groups with entitlement rates of 40% or above are shown below.
Figure 2
Entitlement to Income Support by selected characteristics of household head: Scotland, 1996

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Source: Glen Bramley et al. Analysis of Scottish House Condition Survey for development of GAE poverty indicators (1998)
13
SPIU Poverty in Scotland 1999 (table 2.19)
% of group

11
Variation geographically Figures for local authority areas are available on request. Indicator 3 gives an indication of patterns of receipt for families with children.
Indicator Quality Income Support data are reliable and are released frequently and relatively soon after the date to which they refer. The main problem is with take-up of benefits. Official data can only capture the numbers who claim their entitlement to IS. If take-up rates (through, for example local or national benefit awareness campaigns) increase the numbers on Income Support could increase without any increase in underlying income levels.
12
INDICATOR 3: CHILDREN ENTITLED TO FREE SCHOOL MEALS Around 150,000 children are registered as entitled to free school meals. The percentage of children eligible fell slightly to 21% last year.
Table 2
Registered Entitlement to Free School Meals

Education Authority schools % of pupils 1994-95 Primary Secondary Special All education authority schools 24% 16% 64% 21% 1995-96 24% 17% 68% 21% 1996-97 24% 17% 69% 21% 1997-98 24% 18% 66% 22% 1998-99 22% 17% 59% 21%
Source: TSO School meals in education authority schools 1998-99
Variation between social groups Figures are not available. Variation geographically Figures are available for local authority areas. The highest and lowest rates are shown in table 3. See also the accompanying map: Indicator 3.
Table 3
Registered Entitlement to Free School Meals

Education Authority schools % of pupils 1998-99 Glasgow City Renfrewshire West Dunbartonshire Scotland Scottish Borders Shetland Islands Aberdeenshire
Source: TSO School meals in education authority schools 1998-99
44% 34% 31% 21% 8% 7% 6%
Indicator Quality Data are reliable and are released frequently and relatively soon after the date to which they refer. Again the main problem is with take-up of benefits; eligibility is only registered when a parent/guardian is claiming Income Support.
13

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ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT
Economic prosperity and social justice depend on people of working age being able to realise their potential in the labour market14 Access to paid work is the key factor in determining satisfactory incomes for people of working age. It is also seen as a means of ensuring participation in society, while lack of work can have adverse effects on mental and physical health. The UK Government has made work central to its approach to social exclusion, through new schemes to bring lone parents, people with disabilities and widows into the labour market and new deals to improve the job prospects of various groups once in the labour market. The first indicator selected here is the proportion of people of working age not in employment. This indicator is included in the DSS report and recommended by both the Evaluation Framework Action Team and the New Policy Institute. People not in employment include the ILO unemployed (those who both want work and are actively seeking it) and the economically inactive, who can be divided into those who want work (but are not currently seeking it) and those who do not15. People who do not want paid work will include people with caring responsibilities, people with disabilities and people who have retired. It may be more appropriate to focus, as the New Policy Institute do, on those who want to work. The second indicator is the proportion of unemployed people who have been unemployed for two years or more. This indicator, recommended by the Evaluation Framework Action Team, recognises the fact that long spells of unemployment have a significant bearing on living standards and tend to diminish the likelihood of finding work. Professor David Donnison has argued that longterm unemployment is more fatal than a poor diet or a damp house.16 The third indicator, the proportion of full-time employees on low rates of pay, is included as a measure of the quality of work. Low pay is taken to be hourly wages below the trade unions minimum wage target of half median male earnings (4.79 per hour in 1998). The focus is on full-time employees here because of the uncertainty of estimates for part-time workers. Possible Future Indicators A key development here would be to consider employment at the household level, rather than solely at the individual level. In particular the proportion of working age households where there is no-one in employment will be a key indicator in the future. The Office for National Statistics estimate that in 1998 there were 350,000 working age households in Scotland with no-one in employment, 21% of all working age households. Further analysis will be possible once the Labour Force Survey household datasets are publicly available.
14 15 16
DSS Opportunity for all: Tackling poverty and social exclusion (Cm 4445) p.77 Unless stated otherwise, figures on this indicator exclude full-time students. Cited in McCormick & Leicester Three Nations: Social exclusion in Scotland Scottish Council Foundation 1998

15
INDICATOR 4: PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT There are around 700,000 people of working age not in employment, 25% of the population. Of these, 170,000 are ILO unemployed, 190,000 are inactive and would like work, and 350,000 are inactive and would not like work.
Figure 3
Working age people not in employment

30%
% of working age population
25%
20%
14% 13%
13%
12%
12%
Inactive (do not w ant w ork)

1 5%
Inactive (w ant to w ork) ILO Unemployed
1 0%
6%
7%
7%
7%
7%
5%
7%
0% Spring 1 995
7%
7%
6%
6%
Spring 1 996
Spring 1 997
Spring 1 998
Spring 1 999
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey via SPSS
Variation between social groups

Figure 4
Working age people not in employment (selected categories), Spring 1999

70% 60% 50%
% of group
41%
40% 30%
21% 30%
Inactive (do not w ant w ork) Inactive (w ant to w ork) ILO Unemployed
23%
20% 1 0%
20% 21 % 1 0% 1% 1 5%
Peo ple with a disability
1 4% 8%
5%
0% Lo ne P arents M en aged 50-64 Peo ple with no qualificatio ns

16
Variation geographically Figures are available for local authority areas17. The highest and lowest rates are shown in table 3. See also the accompanying map: Indicator 4.
Table 4
Population not in employment

By local authority % of working age population 1997 Glasgow City East Ayrshire Clackmannanshire Scotland West Lothian East Renfrewshire Shetland Islands
42% 38% 35% 29% 20% 18% 16%
Indicator Quality Data are reliable and will be improved slightly by development of the Scottish Household Survey. Care should be taken in understanding the different reasons why people are not in employment; paid work would not necessarily be beneficial to groups such as early retirees with occupational pension provision and parents who want to look after their young children.
17
In contrast to the figures given above, full-time students are included here.

17

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INDICATOR 5: LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT Around 36,000 people have been ILO unemployed for two years or more, 20% of all unemployed people.
Table 5
People unemployed for two years or more

Scotland, 1995 to 1999 Spring 95 Number % of total unemployed
Spring 96 47,000 22%
Spring 97 48,000 22%
Spring 98 34,000 19%
Spring 99 36,000 20%
53,000 26%
Variation between social groups Figures are not available. Variation geographically Figures are not available.
Indicator Quality Data are reliable and are available quarterly soon after the date to which they refer. It should be possible to provide more detailed analyses as the Scottish Household Survey develops.

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INDICATOR 6: FULL-TIME EMPLOYEES ON LOW PAY Just under 200,000 full-time employees are on hourly pay rates below the national minimum wage target.
Table 6
Full-time employees on low rates of pay

Scotland, 1996 to 1998 1996 Number % of FT employees
Source: Scottish Low Pay Unit
1997 170,000 12.1%
1998 190,000 12.4%
175,000 12.5%
Variation between social groups Women are far more likely than men to be on low pay. 23% of female full-time employees earned less than 4.79 per hour in 1998 compared with 7% of men. Variation geographically Figures are available for most local authority areas (those where the sample size in the New Earnings Survey is sufficiently large). They are summarised in the accompanying map, Indicator 6. These show that low pay is more prevalent in rural Scotland, with more than 15% of full-time employees affected in Argyll & Bute, Borders, East Lothian, Highland, Moray and Perth & Kinross.
Indicator Quality Data are available annually, but small sample sizes in Scotland limit their reliability and prohibit analysis of all areas of Scotland. This indicator will be improved through use of Scottish Household Survey data.
20

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HOUSING QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY

Poor housing is one outcome of social exclusion. It can also contribute to further exclusion through impacts on health, child development and family relationships. The first indicator here is the proportion of households living in overcrowded accommodation. Overcrowding is defined as households which do not have sufficient bedrooms to meet the bedroom standard developed for the 1996 Scottish House Condition Survey (the standard is based on the number of people in a household, their ages and their relationships with each other). Similar indicators were recommended by both the Evaluation Framework Action Team and the New Policy Institute. The second indicator is the level of households assessed as homeless or potentially homeless by local authorities under the homeless legislation. This indicator was recommended by both the Evaluation Framework Action Team and the New Policy Institute. The DSS report contains an indicator based on a more extreme form of homelessness rough sleeping. Lack of data precludes the use of a similar indicator in Scotland.
Possible Future Indicators Other indicators could be drawn from the Scottish House Condition Survey, including dampness, lack of central heating and disrepair. The main problem with data from this source is that the survey is undertaken only every five years. A fuel poverty indicator might be more viable, and will be available through the Scottish Household Survey.
22
INDICATOR 7: OVERCROWDING First results from the Scottish Household Survey suggest that around 110,000 households fall below the bedroom standard, 5% of all households.18 They show a slight improvement from the position in 1996 when around 6% of households fell below the standard.19 Variation between social groups Figures not yet available from the Scottish Household Survey. Figures for 1996 suggest, however, that overcrowding was highest in the furnished private rented sector (19% of households below bedroom standard), and among lone parent (13%) and large family (21%) households.20 Variation geographically Figures are not yet available.
Indicator Quality This is a reliable indicator. The Scottish Household Survey will allow more frequent analyses and analysis of geographical patterns.
18 19 20
Scottish Household Survey Bulletin 1 Scottish Homes Scottish House Condition Survey 1996 ibid.

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INDICATOR 8: HOMELESSNESS Around 30,000 households per year are assessed as homeless or potentially homeless. Applications rose to their highest level of the 1990s last year.
Table 7
Households assessed as homeless or potentially homeless by local authorities

Scotland, 1993-94 to 1997-98 1993-94 Number Rate per 1,000 households 30,900 14.8 1994-95 31,600 15.0 1995-96 30,300 14.3 1996-97 30,600 14.3 1997-98 32,400 15.1
Source: SE Housing statistical bulletin HSG/1999/3
Variation between social groups Not available. Variation geographically Figures are available for local authorities. Highest and lowest rates are shown in table 8. See also accompanying map: Indicator 8.
Table 8
Homelessness rates, by local authority

Scotland, 1997-98 Rate per 1,000 households Glasgow City Stirling Edinburgh Scotland Moray Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire
Source: SE Housing statistical bulletin HSG/1999/3
39 23 19 15 6 5 4
There is also a significant rural dimension to the reasons for homelessness. Across Scotland, action by landlords is recorded as the reason for homelessness by just 7% of applicants. Rates can be far higher in rural areas, including Moray (27%), Orkney (20%), Perth & Kinross (19%) and Eilean Siar (18%)21.
Indicator Quality This is a reliable indicator. The main issue is interpretation. Differences over time and between authorities may reflect differences in both the propensity of contacting local authorities and local authority recording practice as well as differences in the underlying extent of homelessness.
21
SE Housing statistical bulletin HSG/1999/3

24

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EDUCATION
The Government believes that the best way to achieve a significant, long-term difference to the incidence of social exclusion is to focus on today's children and young people. The aim is to ensure that every young person in Scotland, as they leave full-time education or training, should possess all the basic 'life skills' _ literacy, numeracy, communication and social skills; should have had the chance to develop more advanced knowledge and skills in school or college; should be confident and healthy; should value themselves and those around them; and should see themselves as being part of society, and having something to offer society in 22 return.
Education is clearly central to this focus on children, both in the attainment of qualifications and in the development of social skills. The first indicator here is rates of unauthorised absence from secondary school. Unauthorised absence includes absence due to temporary exclusion, truancy and family holidays where attendance is otherwise unsatisfactory. Children with high rates of unauthorised absence are believed to be most likely to leave school early23. A similar indicator was included in the DSS report and recommended by the Evaluation Framework Action Team. The second indicator is the proportion of school leavers without at least one Standard Grade at levels 1-3. The New Policy Institute recommended a similar indicator. The Evaluation Framework Action Team, however, focussed on school leavers achievements in English and mathematics. The selection here of levels 13 reflects the availability of data. Of course, education is not just about children or just about academic qualifications. The third indicator, the proportion of working age adults with no qualifications, admits achievement through lifelong learning as well as through school and through vocational as well as academic qualifications. This indicator is included in the DSS report.
Possible Future Indicators A variety of other indicators could be drawn from data on qualifications. It may also be possible to develop indicators covering school leavers destinations and specific aspects of lifelong learning.
22 23
The Scottish Office Social inclusion opening the door to a better Scotland para. 6.1 McCormick & Leicester Three Nations: Social exclusion in Scotland Scottish Council Foundation 1998

26
INDICATOR 9: UNAUTHORISED ABSENCE FROM SCHOOL Across Scotland, average unauthorised absence was five half days per pupil in 1997-98. This level has changed very little over the past three years. Levels of unauthorised absence from primary school are negligible.24 Variation between social groups Absence rises with age, peaking in years S3 and S4. Variation geographically Figures are available for local authorities. Highest and lowest rates are shown in table 9. See also accompanying map: Indicator 9.
Table 9
Unauthorised absence
Education authority schools in Scotland, 1997-98 half days per pupil Clackmannanshire Stirling Falkirk Scotland Orkney Eilean Siar Shetland
Source: TSO Attendance and absence in Scottish schools 1995/96 to 1997/98
15 14 10 5 1 1 0
Indicator Quality Figures may be affected by variations in interpretation of national guidance on recording absence, in particular in distinguishing between authorised and unauthorised absence.
24
TSO Attendance and absence in Scottish Schools 1995/96 to 1997/98

27

28
INDICATOR 10: SCHOOL LEAVERS QUALIFICATIONS 11,500 pupils left school with no Standard Grades at level 1-3 in 1997-98, 19% of all leavers. Rates have declined steadily in recent years.
Table 10
School leavers with no Standard Grades at levels 1-3

Publicly-funded schools in Scotland, 1993-94 to 1997-98 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 Number % of leavers 13,463 22.5% 13,116 21.3% 13,000 20.6% 1996-97 12,771 19.3% 1997-98 11,538 18.7%
Source: SE Education statistical bulletin Edn/E2/1999/4
Variation between social groups Boys are far more likely to leave school with few qualifications. In 1997-98, 21% left with no Standard Grades at 1-3, compared with 15% of girls. Variation geographically Figures are available for local authorities. Highest and lowest rates are shown in table 11. See also accompanying map: Indicator 10.
Table 11
School leavers with no Standard Grades at levels 1-3

Publicly-funded schools in Scotland, 1997-98 % of leavers Glasgow City Dundee City Falkirk Scotland East Dunbartonshire Aberdeenshire East Renfrewshire
Source: SE Education statistical bulletin Edn/E2/1999/4
32.1% 29.5% 23.6% 18.7% 10.4% 9.9% 8.6%
Indicator Quality This is a reliable annual indicator.

29

30
INDICATOR 11: WORKING AGE PEOPLE WITH NO QUALIFICATIONS Around 500,000 people of working age have no qualifications at all, some 17% of the working age population.
Table 12
Working age people with no qualifications

Scotland, spring 1997 to spring 1999 1997 Number % of population 549,000 17.5% 1998 538,000 17.1% 1999 530,000 16.9%
Variation between social groups

Figure 5
Working age adults with no qualifications by selected characteristics: Scotland, spring 1999
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Variation geographically Figures are not available.
Indicator Quality This is a reliable quarterly indicator. The proportion with no qualifications tends to fall each year because cohorts leaving school today are far more likely to be qualified than those retiring.
31
% of group
HEALTH AND FERTILITY

The first indicator is the rate of conceptions for girls aged under 16. Teenage parents tend to have worse ante-natal health, lower birthweight babies and higher infant mortality rates. Their own health and their childrens is worse than average. Teenage parents tend to remain poor and are disproportionately likely to suffer relationship breakdown. Their daughters are more likely to become teenage mothers themselves. Teenage mothers usually disadvantaged backgrounds contribute to these effects. But having a young baby makes it worse.25 The DSS report includes an indicator relating to young women under 18, both the New Policy Institute and the Evaluation Framework Action Team recommend a focus on births. The decisions between under-18s and under-16s and between conceptions and births are a matter of judgement. The second indicator is the proportion of births of low (below 2500 grams) birthweight. Low birthweight is associated with both immediate and long-term health risks.26 Both the New Policy institute and the Evaluation Framework Action Team recommend this indicator. The third indicator is the rate of deaths among people aged under 65. As a marker of premature death, this indicator reflects the most extreme form of social exclusion. The New Policy Institute recommended it as an indicator.
Possible Future Indicators Many other indicators could be drawn from existing data or from the Scottish Household Survey. These might include measures of mortality from specific causes, such as suicide, heart disease or cancers and a measure of the prevalence of limiting long-term illness.
25 26
Social Exclusion Unit Teenage Pregnancy (Cm 4342) p.23 June 1999 New Policy Institute Monitoring poverty and social exclusion p.44

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INDICATOR 12: UNDERAGE CONCEPTIONS Latest figures show 782 conceptions to girls aged under 16 in 1998, a decline on figures in recent years. Typically, around 50% of conceptions in this age group are terminated through abortion.
Table 13
Conceptions in girls aged under 16

Scotland, 1994 to 1998
1994 Number Rate per 1,000 girls aged 13-15 801 8.4 1995 828 8.6 1996 903 9.5 1997 855 9.2 1998 782 8.4
Source: ISD Scotland Health Briefing Teenage Pregnancy in Scotland 1989-1998
Variation between social groups Figures are not available. Variation geographically Figures are available for health board areas. Highest and lowest rates are shown in table 14. See also accompanying map: Indicator 12.
Table 14
Conceptions in girls aged under 16

Scotland, by health board Averages for three years 1995-96 to 1997-98 Rate per 1,000 girls Number aged 13-15 85 11.8 Tayside 68 10.2 Fife 74 10.1 Ayrshire & Arran
Scotland 835 8.9
Figures for each of the island health boards are too small to be released
Source: ISD Scotland SKIPPER
Figures for local authority areas have recently been released for the first time. These suggest the Dundee City has the highest incidence in the country, with rates in excess of 15 per 1,000 in each of the past three years.27 Comparisons at this level should, however, be interpreted with caution.
Indicator Quality This is a reliable annual indicator. Figures for individual boards should be interpreted with caution as they can be based on a small number of cases.
27
ISD Scotland Scottish Local Authorities Compendium of Health Statistics

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INDICATOR 13: LOW BIRTHWEIGHT BABIES There are around 4,000 babies born each year with birthweight below 2500 grams.
Table 15
Live births below 2500 grams

1993 Number % of all live births
1994 4,062 6.7%
1995 3,671 6.2%
1996 3,858 6.8%
1997 4,014 6.9%
3,993 6.4%
Variation between social groups The risk of low birthweight is highest among mothers under 15 (11% of babies under 2500 grams) and mothers over 40 (12%). Low birthweight is almost twice as common in Scotlands most deprived areas as in the most affluent areas (7% compared with 4%).28 Variation geographically Figures are available for health board areas. Highest and lowest rates are shown in table 16. See also accompanying map: Indicator 13.
Table 16
Live births below 2500 grams

Scotland, by health board area, 1997
Number 1,051 651 336 4,014 % of live births 7.9% 7.4% 7.3% 6.9%
Greater Glasgow Lothian Lanarkshire Scotland
Figures for each of the island health boards are too small to be released
Indicator Quality This is a reliable annual indicator. Figures for individual boards should be interpreted with caution as they can be based on a small number of cases.
28
SE 1998 Health in Scotland p.51

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INDICATOR 14: PREMATURE DEATHS Around 12,000 people die before the age of 65 each year. Numbers and rates have fallen slightly in the last two years.
Table 17
Deaths of people aged under 65

1993 Number Crude rate per 100,000 population
Source: General Register Office (Scotland)
1994 12,525 287.3
1995 12,673 291.4
1996 12,187 280.8
1997 12,156 280.4
12,610 289.3
Variation between social groups The association between social class and premature death is well-documented in data for England and Wales29. In Scotland, the focus has been on association with area-based measures of deprivation. Here, mortality levels for major causes of death are highest in the most deprived areas of Scotland30. Variation geographically Figures on premature death have been calculated for parliamentary constituencies. These are in the form of standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). SMRs compare the number of deaths in an area with the number which would have occurred had national (in this case, British) death rates in each age and sex group applied. An SMR in excess of 100 indicates death rates above the national norm. Highest and lowest rates are shown in table 18. See also accompanying map: Indicator 14.
Table 18
SMRs for under-65s

Scotland, by constituency, 1991-95
Glasgow Shettleston Glasgow Springburn Glasgow Maryhill Scotland Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale Eastwood West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine SMR (GB = 100) 234 217 196 not available 90 86 81
Source: Analysis of registrations data by Daniel Dorling, University of Bristol
Indicator Quality This is a reliable annual indicator. It could be focussed on particular causes of death or particular age groups.
29 30
See, most recently, the report of The Independent Inquiry into Inequalities in Health (the Acheson Report) ISD Scotland Deprivation and health in Scotland

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CITIZENSHIP AND COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION

As well as seeking to reduce the harmful effects of social exclusion, the Social Inclusion Strategy outlines aims relating to the promotion of participation in society. It identifies a need to promote a culture of active citizenship, in which self-development, participation in community and civic life and caring for our disadvantaged neighbours are key features31. The first indicator here considers turnout at elections as a measure of citizenship. Both the Evaluation Framework Action team and the New Policy Institute recommended this indicator. The second indicator looks at one of the key barriers to community involvement, and shows the proportion of people who are worried about becoming the victim of selected crimes. The Evaluation Framework Action team recommended this indicator. Anxiety about crime can be an important source of general discontent with the local area and a specific barrier to involvement in community activities.
Possible Future Indicators A variety of other indicators could be drawn from data from the Scottish Household Survey. These might include measures of the extent of voluntary activity or caring for others in the community.
31
Social inclusion Opening the door to a better Scotland (para 3.3)

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INDICATOR 15: ELECTION TURNOUT Across Scotland, turnout for the elections to the Scottish Parliament was 59%, with 2.3 million of the electorate voting and 1.6 million not. While not directly comparable, turnout was higher at previous general elections above 70% in each since 1974. Variation between social groups Figures are not available. Variation geographically Figures are available for constituencies. Highest and lowest rates are shown in table 19. See also accompanying map: Indicator 15.
Table 19
Turnout at Elections to the Scottish Parliament

Scotland, by constituency
Glasgow Shettleston Glasgow Maryhill Glasgow Springburn Scotland Eastwood Edinburgh West Stirling % turnout 41% 41% 44% 59% 67% 67% 67%
Source: Scottish Parliament Information Centre election database
Indicator Quality Data are reliable, but might usefully be supplemented with the more regular data available on local elections. It should be borne in mind that the calculation of turnout excludes people who are not on the electoral roll (and who may be the most excluded of all groups) and that variations between constituencies may reflect voters perceptions about the certainty of the result in their constituency.
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INDICATOR 16: FEAR OF SELECTED CRIMES Of respondents surveyed by the 1996 Scottish Crime Survey around 15% said they were very worried about becoming a victim of mugging or robbing and around 16% said they were very worried about becoming a victim of assault or attack. Anxiety about these crimes was around twice as high among women as among men and generally highest among younger adults. The extent of anxiety was slightly lower than revealed by the 1993 survey, except among younger men.
Figure 6
People who are 'very worried' about becoming the victim of selected crimes: Scotland, 1996
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 1 5% 1 0% 5% 0% M en: Being mugged o r ro bbed M en: B eing assaulted o r attacked Wo men: B eing mugged o r ro bbed Wo men: B eing assaulted o r attacked 1 6-24 25-44 45-64 65 and o ver
Source: TSO Central Research Unit Main findings from the 1996 Scottish Crime Survey
Variation between social groups People in socio-economic group E (those in households without a wage earner) are around four times more likely to express anxiety than those in socio-economic group A (professionals). Variation geographically Anxiety increases with settlement size.
Indicator Quality The data are based on a relatively small sample of 5,000 households and may be subject to a large degree of sampling error. The fact that the Scottish Crime Survey is periodic (each three years so far) means that updates for this indicator will not be available frequently.

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TOWARDS BETTER MEASUREMENT

The type of scorecard approach exemplified above is a useful first step at measuring the scale of social exclusion and at providing a basis for future monitoring. Its advantages include the facts that it can be produced from readilyavailable material at little additional cost and that it provides a quick, easilydigestible exposition of the level and distribution of exclusion. It has many disadvantages too; crucially while it can illustrate changes in the level of exclusion and it does not offer any insight into the reasons behind those changes. It is important to recognise that for the purposes of evaluating policies to combat social exclusion it should be supplemented by techniques which measure more sensitively the effects of government policies (and the effects of lack of government policies) and their impact on people in, or at risk of, exclusion. There are essentially two types of improvement which could be made to the scorecard approach. The first set focuses on improving the indicators which make up the scorecard, the second go further and would introduce alternative, supplementary means of monitoring.32 IMPROVING THE SCORECARD Beyond the issues of data availibility raised throughout this paper, improvements could be made to the type of indicator selected. First, indicators might be developed which tracked the impacts of particular policies of the Executive or of the UK Government. Examples would include tracking the progress of New Deal participants or considering the contribution made by Social Inclusion Partnerships. A second further set of indicators could draw upon the longitudinal data which will be provided by the enhanced Scottish sample within the British Household Panel Survey. Longitudinal analysis (tracking the same group of people from one year to the next) would enable indicators to be developed in areas such as the persistence of low income. A third set of new indicators might take a bottom-up approach and consider indicators based on aspects which are important to groups at risks of social exclusion. This would allow the development of new indicators which better express the perceptions and aspirations of real people, and would also reflect the Social Inclusion Strategys principles of inclusiveness and empowerment. BEYOND THE SCORECARD Thinking further ahead, there are other ways in which longitudinal research could contribute to an examination of how and why social exclusion occurs and what policies help to ameliorate it. The 1,500 Scottish households to be included in the British Household Panel Survey will provide a limited basis on which to examine changes in the circumstances of individuals and households and to analyse the impacts of those changes (such as family formation and dissolution, entering or leaving work) on
32
The remainder of this section draws heavily on the conclusion of the Evaluation Framework Action Teams progress report to the Social Inclusion Network.

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their exposure to aspects of social exclusion. The first results from this sample should be available late next year. The sample is not, however, large enough to enable analysis of specific groups within the population. A further possibility would be to identify and track groups of people who are either at risk of exclusion (for example, lone parents, people with disabilities, people with no or few qualifications) or who are excluded (on the basis, perhaps, of scoring on several of the indicators incorporated in a scorecard) on the basis of Scottish Household Survey data. Over the long term analysis of groups such as these over time might offer valuable insights into routes into and out of exclusion and start to provide answers to the questions of why people become excluded and what government might do to promote inclusion. There are at present no plans to develop such a survey.

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Information Centre Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of the Scottish Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise the public.

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RESEARCH PAPER 99/11

MEASURING SOCIAL EXCLUSION

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Research Paper 99/11

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Research Paper 99/11

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Research Paper 99/11

SELECTING INDICATORS ....................................................................................5

AN INITIAL SET OF INDICATORS ........................................................................7

TOWARDS BETTER MEASUREMENT.............................................................. 43

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Research Paper 99/11

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Research Paper 99/11

providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament

Research Paper 99/11

AN INITIAL SET OF INDICATORS

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Possible Future Indicators

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Population below selected proportions of average income, GB 1996-97

below 40% below 50% below 60%

Source: DSS Households below average income 1979- 1996/97

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Research Paper 99/11

of Income Support/income-related Jobseeker's Allowance

1997 198 164 259 174 54 849 16.6%

1998 193 170 246 150 54 813 15.9%

1999 189 175 241 147 48 800 15.6%

Entitlement to Income Support by selected characteristics of household head: Scotland, 1996

SPIU Poverty in Scotland 1999 (table 2.19)

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Research Paper 99/11

Registered Entitlement to Free School Meals

Source: TSO School meals in education authority schools 1998-99

Registered Entitlement to Free School Meals

44% 34% 31% 21% 8% 7% 6%

Research Paper 99/11

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Working age people not in employment

% of working age population

Inactive (do not w ant w ork)

Inactive (w ant to w ork) ILO Unemployed

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey via SPSS

Variation between social groups

Working age people not in employment (selected categories), Spring 1999

0% Lo ne P arents M en aged 50-64 Peo ple with no qualificatio ns

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey via SPSS

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Population not in employment

42% 38% 35% 29% 20% 18% 16%

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