GEO 347G/387G Climate System Modeling

Class Time: MWF 10-11am JGB 3.216B

The objectives of this course are to:

Understand the physical description of the climate system Understand the basic equations used to model the climate system Understand the methods for solving these equations Understand the differences between General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate models

This course is meant to be a hands-on

Over the semester you will be instructed on how to operate a regional climate model on the TACC supercomputer facility. This includes:

- compiling the WRF code - designing experiments to address scientific research - data manipulation and analysis to support the model results

Specifically you will be involved in research-level model applications working individually or in small groups to design and conduct modeling projects that will involve the WRF regional climate model.

Background experience
Basic knowledge of Unix/Linux commands and familiarity working on this computing platform How to use an editor on the UNIX platform (e.g., vi editor) Programming experience: specifically Fortran Some understanding of atmospheric circulation/fluid dynamics/atmospheric processes

Grading for the Course

Final Written Research Project 50% Oral Presentation of Research Project 50%

Syllabus
I. Introduction II. Physical Description of the climate system a. atmosphere b. oceans c. land surface d. cryosphere/ice III. Modeling the climate system a. Fundamental equations b. vertical coordinate systems c. radiation and cloud processes d. surface processes IV. Basic Methods for solving model equations a. Finite differencing b. spectral method

Syllabus
V. Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)
a. Introduction b. ARW Solver c. WRF Model Physics d. WRF Software e. Getting started with the TACC Ranger - unix/linux commands - vi editor f. WRF Preprocessing System (WPS) g. WRF ARW Initialization - Basics - How to set up and run h. ARW namelist.input i. Post-processing and graphical tools (GrADS)

Syllabus (cont.)
During the last week of classes you will present to the rest of the class your preliminary results. The final written reports for everyone will also be due at the end of the semester.

Text:
An Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling by Warren M. Washington and Claire L. Parkinson. Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2. NCAR/TN-468+STR, June 2008. Available on-line at: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/arw_v3.pdf WRF (ARW) Version 3 Modeling System User's Guide produced by Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology Division, NCAR, July 2006. Available on-line at: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/user_guide/ARWUsers Guide.pdf

Other References:
Fundamentals of Atmospheric Modeling by Mark Z. Jacobson

Instructor: Dr. Ned Vizy Office: 5.220G E-mail: ned@jsg.utexas.edu Phone: 512-585-1937 Office Hours: By appointment

Finally, Id really like to have your interaction and feedback during the course. There is so much to cover and not enough time. This will help improve the quality of the course not only for this semester, but for future.

Computer Support:
David Spindler e-mail: spindler@jsg.utexas.edu

My Research/Interests
Climate variability/climate change -paleoclimate -Present day -Future climate change

What does the proxy data suggest the LGM moisture signal was like?
Moisture Signal Proxy Site Type

See Vizy and Cook (2005) for more comprehensive details

60-km Domain and Topography (m)

Regional Climate Model

60-km Resolution Domain 382 day integrations (17 day spin-up) Initial and lateral boundary conditions interpolated from present day NCAR/NCEP reanalysis climatological data

Differences between Present Day and LGM Simulations

Eccentricity Obliquity Long. Of Perihelion CO2 Concentration Landuse Categories SSTs Present Day (PD) 0.016724 23.5 282.45 330 ppmv USGS PD PD Shea et al. (1992) Present Day NCEP LGM 0.018994 22.949 294.425 200 ppmv USGS PD LGM Paul and Schfer-Neth (2003) Present Day NCEP

Lateral Boundary Conditions

Annual Rainfall
Present Day Rainfall (mm/day) LGM Present Day Difference (mm/day)

Area Averaged Monthly Rainfall Rates (mm/day)

Andes Region Averaging Regions

Amazon Region Present Day LGM

Future Climate Application

Present Day: 1981-2000 mean Lateral boundary conditions for wind, temperature, and specific humidity from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (~observations) and sea Surface temperature observations; present day CO2 concentrations Climate mode simulation: All of these boundary conditions are the 1981-2000 average Future: 2081-2100 mean under the IPCC's A2 Emissions Scenario Boundary conditions from an ocean/atmosphere global model from the Canadian Climate Center, a contribution to the IPCC AR4, applied as anomalies to the present day boundary conditions

CO2 at 757 ppmv

Potential Vegetation Model Tests for Mean Temperature of the coldest month Dryness Growing degree days Seasonality

Oyama and Nobre 2004

Asynchronous coupling

Why use the PVM with the RCM?

Include the role of vegetation changes on climate Climate model validation Translate climate anomaly/change into vegetation perturbations (1) To answer the question So What? for future climate applications (2) To interface with geological proxy data for past climate applications

Coupled Model Validation: Representation of Todays Vegetation

USGS (observed) Present Day Vegetation

Modeled Present Day Vegetation

rainforest cropland grassland savanna caatinga (mixed shrubland, grassland)

By comparison, if the present day climate of a GCM integration is used to drive the PVM .

In the simulation for 2081-2100, there is a 69% reduction in the rainforest extent.
1981 - 2000 Venezuela Columbia Ecuador Brazil Peru Bolivia Chile Paraguay 2081 - 2100

Blue shading: Regions in which rainforest cannot be maintained due to

1981-2000 simulation 2081-2100 simulation

Insufficient annual rainfall

Dry season too long

Influence of the South American Plume

Climatological SSTs Climatological SSTs

No Plume SSTs

Plume SSTs

August storm tracks for an ensemble of simulations where Amazon/Orinoco plume SSTAs are removed and included

Results
1. Increase in the number of storms - 14 in No Plume - 21 in Plume 2. Westward shift in the storm track closer to the US coastline 3. Storms tend to be shorter lived (by 4 days) in the Plume case