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Department of
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Foreign
Agricultural
Service
Circular Series
WAP 09-11
September 2011
World Agricultural
Production
September 2011
Weather remained favorable for wheat in southeastern Europe, including Romania and Bulgaria
and in Spain and southwest Europe. Adequate rainfall boosted their estimated production by 0.6
million tons in Romania, 0.2 million in Bulgaria, and 0.3 million in Spain. Harvesting is
complete in these countries. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)
Morocco Barley: Harvest Results Indicate Crop Yields Significantly Lower
The USDA estimates 2011/12 Moroccan barley production at 2.4 million tons, down 0.7 million
tons or 23 percent from last month, and down 7 percent from last year. Despite the decline in
forecast output the 2011/12 barley crop is still the third consecutive favorable harvest, with total
production estimated 10 percent above the five-year average. Barley in Morocco is secondary in
production to wheat and is grown in the more marginal production regions in the southern and
western areas of the country. While a wet autumn, winter, and spring boosted the overall yield of
the crop, moisture problems at harvest also presented difficulties. Estimated wheat production
was increased by 0.2 million tons to 6.1 million, up 25 percent from last year and 33 percent
above the five-year average. These two crops comprise the vast majority of Moroccan grain
production. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)
Egypt Corn: Production Sharply Declines as Farmers Switch to Rice
The USDA estimates Egypts 2011/12 corn production at 3.8 million tons, down 2.7 million tons
or 42 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 0.52 million hectares, down 0.33 million or 39
percent from last years 0.85 million hectares. Official figures have not yet been released for this
years crop but government officials and experts attribute the reductions to low corn seed sales
and an increase in rice transplants. Rice has long been the favored crop for Egyptian farmers
because of its high profitability, but the government had restricted sown area because of the high
demand on scarce water supplies from the Nile River. A new environment for Egyptian farmers
unfolded earlier this year when regime change occurred, resulting in the temporary installation of
a military government. The current government has not enforced rice limits and has abolished
fines on excessive planting of rice. Because of these policy measures, rice area is estimated to be
up dramatically from last year while corn area is estimated to be down an almost equivalent
amount. Corn competes with rice and cotton as the dominant summer crops. Relatively high
cotton prices resulted in a year-to-year increase in cotton area. (For more information, contact
Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)
Brazil Corn: High Prices Result in Higher Corn Area Forecast
Corn area is expected to increase for both summer and winter season corn crops in Brazil due to
high prices as summer crop planting begins. Total harvested area for 2011/12 is forecast at 14.5
million hectares, up 0.7 million from last year and slightly below the record area of 14.7 million.
Yield is forecast at 4.21 tons per hectare, up 1 percent from last years drought-reduced crop.
Brazils total corn production for 2011/12 is forecast at 61.0 million tons, up 4.0 million from
last month and up 3.5 million or 6 percent from last year. Planting has begun for the summer or
first-season crop in southern Brazil, with 7 percent of the crop planted in Parana. Recent warm
temperatures and good rainfall have also allowed planting to start in Rio Grande do Sul.
Planting of corn for the winter or second-season safrinha crop in central Brazil will begin in mid-
3
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
September 2011
January 2012, with area forecast at 250,000-500,000 hectares above last years record of 5.86
million. However, the planted area forecast for the second-season crop could change as corn
prices and production costs will be different at planting time after mid-January, 2012. (For
more information, please contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
4
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
September 2011
ideal sowing window is early to mid-June and typically commences with the arrival of the
monsoon. Some farmers are able to provide supplemental irrigation, though this practice is
limited by water reserves and equipment. The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53
percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). (For more information contact
Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)
5
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
September 2011
This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) global network of
agricultural attachs and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign
source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign
area, yield and production are from the International Production Assessment Branch, FAS, and
are reviewed by USDAs Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S.
area, yield and production are from USDAs National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers
within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA
estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-498),
September 12, 2011.
Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download
an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.
The FAS International Production Assessment Branch prepared this report. The next issue of
World Agricultural Production will be released after 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, October 12, 2011.
Conversion Table
Metric tons to bushels
Wheat, soybeans
Corn, sorghum, rye
Barley
Oats
=
=
=
=
MT * 36.7437
MT * 39.36825
MT * 45.929625
MT * 68.894438
MT * 4.592917
MT * 22.04622
=
=
2.471044 acres
2.204622 pounds
6
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
September 2011
GENERAL INFORMATION
Director
Deputy Director
Deputy Director/SIA Manager
USDA Remote Sensing Advisor
Sr. Agricultural Economist
Program Analyst
202-690-0131
202-720-2974
202-690-0134
202-720-1280
202-720-0873
202-720-0886
derrick.williams@fas.usda.gov
tom.stclair@fas.usda.gov
curt.reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov
glenn.bethel@fas.usda.gov
paul.provance@fas.usda.gov
mary.jackson@fas.usda.gov
202-720-0107
202-690-0138
202-690-0143
202-720-0881
202-690-0133
202-720-7339
denise.mcwilliams@fas.usda.gov
bryan.purcell@fas.usda.gov
mark.lindeman@fas.usda.gov
arnella.trent@fas.usda.gov
paulette.sandene@fas.usda.gov
mita.dath@fas.usda.gov
202-690-0134
202-720-7366
202-720-1071
202-690-0135
202-260-8109
curt.reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov
michael.shean@fas.usda.gov
robert.tetrault@fas.usda.gov
james.crutchfield@fas.usda.gov
william.baker@fas.usda.gov
7
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
September 2011
World
-
Total
Foreign
North
America
North
America
North
America
EU-27
-
Former
Soviet
Former
Soviet
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
South
America
South
America
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
All
Others
none
-
none
-
United
States
Canada
-
Mexico
-
none
-
Russia
-
Ukraine
-
China
-
India
-
Indonesia
Pakistan
Thailand
Argentina
Brazil
-
Australia
South
Africa
Turkey
-
none
-
684.4
624.0
60.4
26.8
4.1
138.8
61.8
20.9
115.1
80.7
nr
24.0
nr
11.0
5.0
21.9
2.0
18.5
93.4
2010/11 prel.
648.2
588.1
60.1
23.2
3.7
135.6
41.5
16.8
115.2
80.8
nr
23.9
nr
15.0
5.9
26.0
1.5
17.0
82.0
Aug
672.1
615.6
56.5
21.5
3.7
133.5
56.0
21.0
117.0
85.9
nr
24.0
nr
13.5
4.8
25.0
1.7
18.5
89.5
Sep
678.1
621.6
56.5
24.0
3.7
135.8
56.0
22.0
117.0
85.9
nr
24.0
nr
13.5
5.0
25.0
1.7
18.5
89.5
2009/10
1,110.2
761.4
348.8
22.5
27.3
155.0
31.8
24.1
163.6
33.9
6.9
3.6
4.2
28.5
58.4
11.1
13.9
11.2
165.3
2010/11 prel.
1,095.2
764.9
330.2
22.3
27.9
139.6
16.4
21.4
179.2
42.0
6.8
3.6
4.1
30.2
59.9
13.6
12.4
10.1
175.4
Aug
1,136.3
797.5
338.8
22.5
31.7
142.4
29.4
26.3
184.3
40.4
8.1
3.6
4.2
33.5
59.3
13.4
13.0
10.7
174.6
Sep
1,131.2
802.9
328.3
21.6
31.7
143.6
29.7
28.4
184.3
40.4
8.1
3.6
4.2
35.0
63.3
13.4
13.0
10.7
171.8
2009/10
440.3
433.2
7.1
nr
0.2
1.9
0.6
0.1
136.6
89.1
36.4
6.8
20.3
0.7
7.9
0.1
nr
0.4
132.2
2010/11 prel.
451.2
443.6
7.6
nr
0.2
1.9
0.7
0.1
137.0
95.3
37.1
4.7
20.3
1.1
9.3
0.6
nr
0.5
135.0
Aug
456.2
450.2
6.0
nr
0.1
1.9
0.7
0.1
138.0
97.0
37.3
6.8
20.8
0.9
7.9
0.7
nr
0.4
137.6
Sep
458.4
452.3
6.1
nr
0.1
1.9
0.7
0.1
139.0
97.0
37.3
6.8
20.8
0.9
8.8
0.7
nr
0.4
137.7
2009/10
2,234.9
1,818.6
416.3
49.3
31.6
295.8
94.2
45.1
415.3
203.7
43.3
34.4
24.4
40.2
71.4
33.2
15.8
30.0
390.9
2010/11 prel.
2,194.5
1,796.6
397.9
45.4
31.7
277.0
58.6
38.4
431.3
218.1
43.9
32.2
24.3
46.4
75.1
40.2
13.9
27.5
392.5
Aug
2,264.7
1,863.3
401.4
44.0
35.5
277.8
86.1
47.4
439.3
223.3
45.4
34.4
25.0
47.9
72.0
39.1
14.7
29.6
401.7
Sep
2,267.7
1,876.7
390.9
45.6
35.5
281.3
86.4
50.5
440.3
223.3
45.4
34.4
25.0
49.4
77.2
39.1
14.7
29.6
399.0
2009/10
442.7
343.8
98.9
16.5
0.6
29.7
8.0
9.3
57.8
32.4
9.4
5.2
0.6
57.9
71.4
2.6
1.2
1.5
39.5
2010/11 prel.
452.9
352.5
100.4
17.2
0.6
28.9
7.2
9.9
57.7
34.8
9.7
4.8
0.6
54.0
79.1
3.6
1.7
1.8
40.6
Aug
451.4
359.8
91.7
16.7
0.6
28.0
10.9
10.9
57.2
35.7
10.2
5.6
0.7
57.1
77.2
4.1
1.8
1.9
41.2
Sep
453.0
360.6
92.4
17.3
0.6
28.1
10.9
10.9
57.6
35.5
10.2
5.5
0.7
57.1
77.2
4.1
1.8
1.9
41.2
2009/10
101.4
89.2
12.2
nr
0.4
1.1
nr
nr
32.0
23.0
0.0
9.6
0.0
1.0
5.5
1.8
0.0
1.8
13.1
2010/11 prel.
114.6
96.5
18.1
nr
0.7
1.1
nr
nr
30.5
25.4
0.0
8.8
0.0
1.3
8.5
4.2
0.1
2.1
13.8
Aug
122.7
106.2
16.6
nr
1.1
1.7
nr
nr
33.0
27.0
0.0
10.3
0.0
1.4
8.7
4.5
0.1
2.9
15.5
Sep
123.0
106.4
16.6
nr
1.2
1.7
nr
nr
34.0
27.0
0.0
9.8
0.0
1.4
8.7
4.5
0.1
2.9
15.2
2011/12 proj.
Coarse Grains
2011/12 proj.
Rice, Milled
2011/12 proj.
Total Grains
2011/12 proj.
Oilseeds
2011/12 proj.
Cotton
2011/12 proj.
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
227.31
222.48
222.41
222.63
3.01
2.91
3.02
3.05
684.40
648.20
672.09
678.12
6.03
0.90
29.92
4.62
United States
20.19
19.28
18.59
18.59
2.99
3.12
3.04
3.04
60.37
60.10
56.51
56.51
0.00
0.00
-3.59
-5.97
Total Foreign
207.12
203.20
203.83
204.04
3.01
2.89
3.02
3.05
624.03
588.10
615.58
621.60
6.03
0.98
33.51
5.70
24.29
24.32
24.40
24.40
4.74
4.74
4.80
4.80
115.12
115.18
117.00
117.00
0.00
0.00
1.82
1.58
6.35
World
none
China
South Asia
27.75
28.36
29.40
29.40
2.91
2.85
2.92
2.92
80.68
80.80
85.93
85.93
0.00
0.00
5.13
Pakistan
9.05
9.03
9.00
9.00
2.65
2.65
2.67
2.67
24.00
23.90
24.00
24.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.42
Afghanistan
2.58
2.35
2.10
2.10
1.65
1.57
1.19
1.19
4.25
3.70
2.50
2.50
0.00
0.00
-1.20
-32.43
28.70
26.61
26.00
25.68
2.15
1.56
2.15
2.18
61.77
41.51
56.00
56.00
0.00
0.00
14.49
34.91
6.75
6.28
6.70
6.70
3.09
2.68
3.13
3.28
20.87
16.84
21.00
22.00
1.00
4.76
5.16
30.61
14.75
14.50
14.00
14.00
1.16
0.67
1.14
1.14
17.05
9.70
16.00
16.00
0.00
0.00
6.30
64.95
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.40
4.43
4.64
4.64
4.50
6.20
6.50
6.50
6.30
-0.20
-3.08
-0.20
-3.08
25.82
25.95
25.75
25.73
5.38
5.23
5.18
5.28
138.82
135.61
133.49
135.79
2.30
1.72
0.18
0.13
France
5.15
5.43
5.50
5.50
7.44
7.04
6.27
6.36
38.32
38.21
34.50
35.00
0.50
1.45
-3.21
-8.39
Germany
3.23
3.23
3.25
3.25
7.81
7.37
6.83
7.08
25.19
23.78
22.20
23.00
0.80
3.60
-0.78
-3.29
United Kingdom
1.78
1.94
2.00
2.00
7.93
7.67
7.40
7.40
14.08
14.88
14.80
14.80
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-0.52
Poland
2.35
2.41
2.42
2.42
4.17
3.87
3.88
3.88
9.79
9.30
9.40
9.40
0.00
0.00
0.10
1.08
Spain
1.77
1.94
1.99
1.97
2.71
3.02
3.14
3.31
4.81
5.84
6.25
6.50
0.25
4.00
0.66
11.38
Italy
1.90
1.81
1.67
1.67
3.53
3.59
3.66
3.66
6.70
6.49
6.10
6.10
0.00
0.00
-0.39
-6.01
Denmark
0.74
0.77
0.74
0.74
8.04
6.61
7.30
7.30
5.94
5.06
5.40
5.40
0.00
0.00
0.34
6.80
Hungary
1.14
1.01
0.95
0.95
3.85
3.76
4.21
4.21
4.40
3.80
4.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
5.26
Romania
2.15
2.03
1.93
1.93
2.47
2.82
3.47
3.78
5.30
5.72
6.70
7.30
0.60
8.96
1.58
27.62
Bulgaria
1.25
1.11
1.04
1.04
3.19
3.60
3.93
4.08
3.98
4.00
4.10
4.25
0.15
3.66
0.26
6.38
9.64
8.27
8.00
8.55
2.79
2.80
2.69
2.81
26.85
23.17
21.50
24.00
2.50
11.63
0.83
3.60
14.03
13.35
14.00
14.00
1.56
1.95
1.79
1.79
21.92
26.00
25.00
25.00
0.00
0.00
-1.00
-3.85
Turkey
7.80
8.00
7.70
7.70
2.37
2.13
2.40
2.40
18.45
17.00
18.50
18.50
0.00
0.00
1.50
8.82
Iran
6.65
7.00
6.80
6.80
2.03
2.21
2.02
2.02
13.49
15.50
13.75
13.75
0.00
0.00
-1.75
-11.29
Syria
1.50
1.35
1.50
1.50
2.40
2.67
2.17
2.17
3.60
3.60
3.25
3.25
0.00
0.00
-0.35
-9.72
Egypt
1.32
1.26
1.32
1.32
6.45
5.71
6.59
6.59
8.52
7.20
8.70
8.70
0.00
0.00
1.50
20.83
Morocco
2.98
2.85
3.05
3.05
2.15
1.71
1.93
2.00
6.40
4.89
5.90
6.10
0.20
3.39
1.21
24.82
Argentina
3.65
4.40
4.70
4.70
3.01
3.41
2.87
2.87
11.00
15.00
13.50
13.50
0.00
0.00
-1.50
-10.00
18.48
17.91
18.01
18.02
2.44
2.34
2.39
2.40
45.05
42.00
43.06
43.29
0.23
0.52
1.29
3.06
India
Canada
Australia
Middle East
North Africa
Others
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
310.76
309.76
313.98
314.82
3.57
3.54
3.62
3.59
1,110.17
1,095.15
1,136.32
1,131.20
-5.13
-0.45
36.04
3.29
United States
36.32
36.52
37.37
37.37
9.60
9.04
9.07
8.79
348.76
330.23
338.81
328.31
-10.51
-3.10
-1.93
-0.58
Total Foreign
274.43
273.23
276.61
277.45
2.77
2.80
2.88
2.89
761.42
764.92
797.51
802.89
5.38
0.67
37.97
4.96
33.38
34.72
35.32
35.32
4.90
5.16
5.22
5.22
163.63
179.16
184.31
184.31
0.00
0.00
5.15
2.87
13.93
14.75
14.44
15.44
4.19
4.06
4.11
4.10
58.41
59.93
59.33
63.33
4.00
6.74
3.40
5.68
4.20
5.26
5.42
5.62
6.80
5.75
6.19
6.24
28.53
30.25
33.51
35.01
1.50
4.48
4.76
15.75
World
none
China
South America
Brazil
Argentina
32.53
30.19
30.73
30.73
4.77
4.62
4.63
4.67
155.05
139.57
142.39
143.64
1.25
0.88
4.07
2.92
France
4.21
3.77
3.73
3.73
7.52
7.22
6.82
6.93
31.65
27.18
25.45
25.85
0.40
1.57
-1.33
-4.88
Germany
3.68
3.29
3.28
3.28
6.67
6.15
5.68
5.68
24.56
20.26
18.61
18.61
0.00
0.00
-1.65
-8.13
Poland
6.16
6.01
6.08
6.08
3.24
2.95
2.95
2.97
19.94
17.74
17.92
18.07
0.15
0.84
0.34
1.89
Spain
4.13
3.94
3.99
3.99
2.93
3.28
3.60
3.60
12.10
12.91
14.36
14.36
0.00
0.00
1.45
11.22
Italy
1.43
1.37
1.53
1.53
7.20
7.61
7.45
7.45
10.32
10.41
11.41
11.41
0.00
0.00
1.01
9.68
Hungary
1.72
1.56
1.70
1.70
5.29
5.46
5.72
5.83
9.09
8.54
9.73
9.93
0.20
2.05
1.40
16.37
United Kingdom
1.30
1.07
1.06
1.06
5.80
5.64
5.56
5.56
7.54
6.06
5.87
5.87
0.00
0.00
-0.20
-3.22
Romania
3.14
3.03
3.23
3.23
2.91
3.46
3.41
3.51
9.14
10.48
10.99
11.34
0.35
3.18
0.86
8.24
EU-27
13.80
15.30
15.40
1.93
1.19
1.92
1.93
31.84
16.42
29.40
29.70
0.30
1.02
13.28
80.92
Ukraine
8.06
7.64
7.94
7.94
2.99
2.81
3.32
3.58
24.14
21.44
26.33
28.40
2.08
7.88
6.96
32.45
Kazakhstan
2.21
1.98
1.99
1.99
1.49
0.92
1.40
1.40
3.30
1.82
2.78
2.78
0.00
0.00
0.96
52.89
81.09
81.38
81.74
81.50
1.33
1.42
1.38
1.35
107.75
115.51
112.50
110.40
-2.10
-1.87
-5.10
-4.42
18.25
18.35
18.35
18.35
1.53
1.53
1.53
1.53
27.96
28.10
28.10
28.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
South Africa
4.15
3.78
3.90
3.90
3.35
3.30
3.34
3.34
13.88
12.45
12.99
12.99
0.00
0.00
0.55
4.38
Ethiopia
4.93
4.93
4.93
4.93
1.63
1.81
1.81
1.81
8.05
8.93
8.93
8.93
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Egypt
1.05
1.06
0.97
0.73
6.99
7.13
7.18
6.66
7.34
7.56
6.96
4.86
-2.10
-30.17
-2.70
-35.71
27.01
27.09
26.45
26.45
1.25
1.55
1.53
1.53
33.89
42.00
40.37
40.37
0.00
0.00
-1.63
-3.88
Indonesia
3.06
2.85
3.15
3.15
2.25
2.39
2.57
2.57
6.90
6.80
8.10
8.10
0.00
0.00
1.30
19.12
Philippines
2.52
2.63
2.68
2.56
2.47
2.76
2.69
2.77
6.23
7.27
7.20
7.10
-0.10
-1.39
-0.17
-2.35
Thailand
1.03
1.01
1.03
1.03
4.04
4.01
4.08
4.08
4.15
4.05
4.20
4.20
0.00
0.00
0.15
3.70
Mexico
8.23
9.11
9.21
9.21
3.32
3.06
3.45
3.45
27.27
27.87
31.73
31.73
0.00
0.00
3.86
13.85
Canada
5.23
4.60
5.03
4.78
4.30
4.84
4.48
4.51
22.48
22.26
22.52
21.58
-0.94
-4.17
-0.68
-3.06
Australia
5.96
5.84
5.83
5.83
1.86
2.33
2.29
2.29
11.10
13.61
13.38
13.38
0.00
0.00
-0.23
-1.69
Turkey
4.23
4.17
3.98
3.98
2.64
2.42
2.69
2.69
11.18
10.10
10.70
10.70
0.00
0.00
0.60
5.94
Others
25.25
26.22
26.39
26.53
2.60
2.55
2.61
2.57
65.56
66.89
68.78
68.17
-0.61
-0.88
1.28
1.92
Russia
Africa
Nigeria
India
Southeast Asia
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
157.76
163.06
167.44
168.41
5.16
5.05
5.14
5.08
813.44
823.97
860.52
854.67
-5.84
-0.68
30.71
3.73
United States
32.17
32.96
34.15
34.15
10.34
9.59
9.61
9.30
332.55
316.17
328.03
317.44
-10.59
-3.23
1.28
0.40
Total Foreign
125.60
130.10
133.28
134.26
3.83
3.90
4.00
4.00
480.89
507.80
532.48
537.23
4.75
0.89
29.43
5.80
31.18
32.45
33.00
33.00
5.07
5.33
5.39
5.39
158.00
173.00
178.00
178.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
2.89
12.93
13.80
13.50
14.50
4.34
4.17
4.22
4.21
56.10
57.50
57.00
61.00
4.00
7.02
3.50
6.09
2.75
3.20
3.40
3.60
8.47
6.88
7.65
7.64
23.30
22.00
26.00
27.50
1.50
5.77
5.50
25.00
Mexico
6.28
7.00
7.05
7.05
3.24
2.94
3.40
3.40
20.37
20.60
24.00
24.00
0.00
0.00
3.40
16.50
EU-27
8.28
8.00
8.73
8.73
6.87
6.99
6.88
6.99
56.95
55.90
60.09
61.04
0.95
1.58
5.14
9.20
France
1.68
1.53
1.52
1.52
9.10
9.00
9.21
9.34
15.29
13.79
14.00
14.20
0.20
1.43
0.41
2.98
Italy
0.93
0.92
1.00
1.00
9.30
9.60
9.49
9.49
8.65
8.78
9.49
9.49
0.00
0.00
0.71
8.03
Hungary
1.18
1.07
1.25
1.25
6.36
6.55
6.56
6.72
7.50
7.00
8.20
8.40
0.20
2.44
1.40
20.00
Romania
2.35
2.25
2.55
2.55
3.19
3.87
3.61
3.71
7.50
8.70
9.20
9.45
0.25
2.72
0.75
8.62
Poland
0.27
0.30
0.34
0.34
6.23
5.72
5.74
6.18
1.71
1.72
1.95
2.10
0.15
7.69
0.39
22.45
India
8.33
8.55
8.50
8.50
2.01
2.49
2.47
2.47
16.72
21.28
21.00
21.00
0.00
0.00
-0.28
-1.32
Canada
1.14
1.20
1.22
1.20
8.37
9.74
9.05
8.33
9.56
11.71
11.00
10.00
-1.00
-9.09
-1.71
-14.63
Indonesia
3.06
2.85
3.15
3.15
2.25
2.39
2.57
2.57
6.90
6.80
8.10
8.10
0.00
0.00
1.30
19.12
Ukraine
2.09
2.65
3.50
3.50
5.02
4.50
4.71
5.14
10.49
11.92
16.50
18.00
1.50
9.09
6.08
51.02
Serbia
1.20
1.23
1.30
1.30
5.33
5.53
5.38
5.38
6.40
6.80
7.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
2.94
Egypt
0.84
0.85
0.76
0.52
7.48
7.65
7.76
7.31
6.28
6.50
5.90
3.80
-2.10
-35.59
-2.70
-41.54
Philippines
2.52
2.63
2.68
2.56
2.47
2.76
2.69
2.77
6.23
7.27
7.20
7.10
-0.10
-1.39
-0.17
-2.35
Vietnam
1.13
1.20
1.25
1.25
4.09
4.17
4.32
4.32
4.61
5.00
5.40
5.40
0.00
0.00
0.40
8.00
Thailand
1.00
0.98
1.00
1.00
4.10
4.08
4.15
4.15
4.10
4.00
4.15
4.15
0.00
0.00
0.15
3.75
Russia
1.37
1.42
1.60
1.74
2.90
2.17
3.44
3.16
3.96
3.08
5.50
5.50
0.00
0.00
2.43
78.86
South Africa
3.26
2.90
3.00
3.00
4.11
4.14
4.17
4.17
13.42
12.00
12.50
12.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
4.17
Nigeria
4.90
4.90
4.90
4.90
1.79
1.78
1.78
1.78
8.76
8.70
8.70
8.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ethiopia
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.95
2.20
2.20
2.20
3.90
4.40
4.40
4.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Zimbabwe
1.10
1.35
1.60
1.60
0.59
0.74
0.88
0.88
0.65
1.00
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.40
40.00
World
none
China
South America
Brazil
Argentina
Sub-Saharan Africa
Turkey
0.50
0.49
0.45
0.45
8.00
7.35
8.00
8.00
4.00
3.60
3.60
3.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
29.74
30.45
30.70
30.70
2.02
2.13
2.12
2.12
60.20
64.74
65.04
65.04
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.47
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
55.69
50.76
50.61
50.64
2.70
2.44
2.62
2.62
150.49
124.07
132.35
132.58
0.23
0.17
8.51
6.86
United States
1.26
1.00
0.97
0.97
3.93
3.93
3.79
3.79
4.95
3.93
3.66
3.66
0.00
0.00
-0.26
-6.68
Total Foreign
54.43
49.76
49.64
49.67
2.67
2.41
2.59
2.60
145.54
120.15
128.69
128.92
0.23
0.18
8.77
7.30
85.63
World
none
Russia
9.09
7.21
7.90
7.96
1.97
1.16
1.96
1.95
17.88
8.35
15.50
15.50
0.00
0.00
7.15
EU-27
13.94
12.47
12.31
12.31
4.46
4.25
4.18
4.21
62.15
53.02
51.51
51.81
0.30
0.58
-1.20
-2.27
Germany
1.88
1.64
1.65
1.65
6.54
6.29
5.33
5.33
12.29
10.33
8.80
8.80
0.00
0.00
-1.53
-14.79
France
1.88
1.58
1.55
1.55
6.92
6.39
5.42
5.55
13.00
10.10
8.40
8.60
0.20
2.38
-1.50
-14.87
Spain
3.02
2.87
2.90
2.90
2.41
2.84
3.16
3.16
7.30
8.15
9.15
9.15
0.00
0.00
1.00
12.26
United Kingdom
1.14
0.92
0.90
0.90
5.83
5.69
5.56
5.56
6.67
5.24
5.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
-0.24
-4.65
Denmark
0.59
0.59
0.60
0.60
5.77
5.04
5.55
5.55
3.42
2.99
3.30
3.30
0.00
0.00
0.31
10.33
Poland
1.16
1.12
1.10
1.10
3.44
3.15
3.18
3.18
3.98
3.53
3.50
3.50
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-0.85
Czech Republic
0.45
0.39
0.37
0.37
4.41
4.08
4.46
4.46
2.00
1.58
1.65
1.65
0.00
0.00
0.07
4.17
Finland
0.60
0.41
0.41
0.41
3.63
3.26
3.66
3.66
2.18
1.33
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.17
12.61
Sweden
0.36
0.32
0.32
0.32
4.65
3.86
4.38
4.38
1.68
1.23
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.17
14.01
Italy
0.31
0.27
0.32
0.32
3.42
3.62
3.60
3.60
1.05
0.99
1.17
1.17
0.00
0.00
0.17
17.56
Hungary
0.32
0.29
0.26
0.26
3.22
3.37
3.69
3.69
1.03
0.97
0.96
0.96
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-0.62
Austria
0.18
0.17
0.15
0.15
4.59
4.60
4.47
4.47
0.84
0.78
0.68
0.68
0.00
0.00
-0.09
-12.08
Ukraine
4.99
4.32
3.70
3.70
2.37
1.97
2.30
2.43
11.83
8.48
8.50
9.00
0.50
5.88
0.52
6.08
Canada
2.92
2.39
2.60
2.43
3.26
3.19
3.15
3.41
9.52
7.61
8.20
8.28
0.08
0.91
0.67
8.81
Australia
4.45
4.10
4.00
4.00
1.78
2.27
2.25
2.25
7.91
9.30
9.00
9.00
0.00
0.00
-0.30
-3.23
Turkey
3.40
3.35
3.20
3.20
1.91
1.76
2.03
2.03
6.50
5.90
6.50
6.50
0.00
0.00
0.60
10.17
China
0.63
0.65
0.68
0.68
3.70
3.85
3.85
3.85
2.32
2.50
2.60
2.60
0.00
0.00
0.10
4.00
Iran
1.68
1.70
1.65
1.65
2.06
2.06
1.82
1.82
3.45
3.50
3.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
-0.50
-14.29
Morocco
2.18
1.92
1.90
2.03
1.74
1.34
1.63
1.19
3.80
2.57
3.10
2.40
-0.70
-22.58
-0.17
-6.61
Kazakhstan
1.85
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.36
0.81
1.31
1.31
2.52
1.30
2.10
2.10
0.00
0.00
0.80
61.54
Ethiopia
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
1.61
1.44
1.44
1.44
1.57
1.40
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Belarus
0.50
0.60
0.65
0.65
3.30
2.33
2.77
2.77
1.65
1.40
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.40
28.57
India
0.78
0.74
0.75
0.75
2.17
1.82
2.09
2.09
1.69
1.35
1.57
1.57
0.00
0.00
0.22
16.30
Argentina
0.50
0.75
0.90
0.90
2.70
3.93
3.44
3.44
1.36
2.95
3.10
3.10
0.00
0.00
0.15
5.08
Mexico
0.23
0.31
0.31
0.31
2.17
2.52
2.52
2.52
0.50
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Iraq
0.50
1.25
1.13
1.13
0.90
0.92
0.88
0.88
0.45
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-13.04
Algeria
1.24
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.94
1.50
1.50
1.50
2.40
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
4.58
4.43
4.39
4.41
1.76
1.60
1.72
1.72
8.05
7.09
7.53
7.58
0.05
0.70
0.49
6.91
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
11.38
10.72
11.39
11.07
2.07
1.89
1.98
2.04
23.60
20.25
22.50
22.54
0.04
0.18
2.30
11.35
United States
0.56
0.51
0.38
0.38
2.42
2.31
2.21
2.21
1.35
1.18
0.83
0.83
0.00
0.00
-0.34
-29.20
Total Foreign
10.83
10.21
11.01
10.69
2.06
1.87
1.97
2.03
22.25
19.07
21.67
21.71
0.04
0.18
2.64
13.86
Russia
3.37
2.90
3.50
3.23
1.60
1.11
1.43
1.55
5.40
3.22
5.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
1.78
55.38
Canada
0.98
0.84
1.05
1.00
2.97
2.95
2.76
2.90
2.91
2.48
2.90
2.90
0.00
0.00
0.42
16.94
EU-27
2.91
2.72
2.72
2.72
2.95
2.71
2.89
2.89
8.58
7.37
7.85
7.85
0.00
0.00
0.48
6.46
Poland
0.53
0.54
0.56
0.56
2.70
2.47
2.41
2.41
1.42
1.34
1.35
1.35
0.00
0.00
0.02
1.12
Finland
0.34
0.28
0.28
0.28
3.54
2.90
3.45
3.45
1.21
0.81
0.95
0.95
0.00
0.00
0.14
17.87
Spain
0.56
0.54
0.52
0.52
1.65
1.89
2.10
2.10
0.92
1.02
1.08
1.08
0.00
0.00
0.06
6.19
Germany
0.16
0.14
0.16
0.16
5.07
4.24
4.14
4.14
0.83
0.60
0.65
0.65
0.00
0.00
0.05
8.70
Sweden
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.16
3.99
3.23
3.75
3.75
0.75
0.54
0.60
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.06
11.73
United Kingdom
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.13
5.77
5.52
5.76
5.76
0.74
0.69
0.72
0.72
0.00
0.00
0.04
5.11
France
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.10
4.90
4.57
4.50
4.50
0.57
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.44
Italy
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.12
2.34
2.45
2.40
2.40
0.31
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.01
3.94
Denmark
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.05
4.70
4.91
4.80
4.80
0.32
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.01
3.90
Romania
0.20
0.20
0.18
0.18
1.45
1.74
1.83
1.83
0.30
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-2.94
Czech Republic
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
3.32
2.65
3.33
3.33
0.17
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.01
8.70
Hungary
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
2.19
2.41
2.82
2.82
0.11
0.12
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.03
26.02
Austria
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
3.89
3.63
3.60
3.60
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-8.16
Ireland
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
7.30
7.63
7.25
7.25
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Lithuania
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
2.23
1.34
2.00
2.00
0.14
0.09
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.04
49.43
Australia
0.87
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.36
1.63
1.60
1.60
1.18
1.50
1.60
1.60
0.00
0.00
0.10
6.67
Ukraine
0.42
0.31
0.29
0.29
1.76
1.47
1.90
1.90
0.73
0.46
0.55
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.09
20.09
China
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.24
1.78
1.75
1.75
1.75
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Belarus
0.25
0.25
0.28
0.28
3.20
2.80
2.91
2.91
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.10
14.29
Brazil
0.13
0.15
0.15
0.15
1.89
2.46
2.40
2.40
0.25
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-2.37
Argentina
0.14
0.30
0.22
0.22
1.31
2.00
1.57
1.57
0.18
0.60
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
-0.26
-42.50
Chile
0.08
0.11
0.10
0.10
5.01
5.32
4.60
5.00
0.38
0.56
0.46
0.50
0.04
8.70
-0.06
-11.35
Norway
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
3.36
3.36
3.36
3.36
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Turkey
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
2.34
2.21
2.21
2.21
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Kazakhstan
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
1.34
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.20
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Serbia
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
World
none
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
World
6.58
5.67
5.71
5.53
2.74
2.12
2.34
2.42
18.01
12.01
13.38
13.36
-0.01
-0.10
1.36
11.30
United States
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.10
1.75
1.77
1.71
1.71
0.18
0.19
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-11.11
Total Foreign
6.47
5.56
5.62
5.43
2.75
2.12
2.35
2.43
17.83
11.82
13.21
13.20
-0.01
-0.11
1.38
11.66
-4.17
none
2.80
2.59
2.54
2.54
3.56
3.01
2.94
2.94
9.96
7.79
7.47
7.47
0.00
0.00
-0.33
Poland
1.40
1.40
1.38
1.38
2.66
2.34
2.33
2.33
3.71
3.27
3.20
3.20
0.00
0.00
-0.07
-2.14
Germany
0.76
0.63
0.60
0.60
5.70
4.63
4.25
4.25
4.33
2.90
2.56
2.56
0.00
0.00
-0.34
-11.72
Spain
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.15
1.45
2.02
1.99
1.99
0.19
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.01
4.73
Lithuania
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.05
2.54
1.67
2.50
2.50
0.21
0.09
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.04
49.43
Latvia
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.04
2.75
2.50
2.76
2.76
0.16
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.01
10.53
France
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
5.20
5.10
4.83
4.83
0.13
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-5.41
Denmark
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
5.57
5.44
5.44
5.44
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Czech Republic
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
4.68
3.93
4.38
4.38
0.18
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-11.02
Austria
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
3.76
3.50
3.72
3.72
0.18
0.16
0.18
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.01
8.70
Sweden
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
5.92
4.72
5.60
5.60
0.22
0.12
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.02
18.64
Hungary
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
1.80
2.08
2.06
2.06
0.07
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-9.33
Slovakia
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
2.85
2.12
3.38
3.38
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.01
22.22
Finland
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
2.48
2.76
2.80
2.80
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.45
United Kingdom
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
7.20
6.20
7.00
7.00
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.90
Romania
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
2.06
2.50
2.25
2.25
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-22.86
Greece
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
1.83
1.83
1.83
1.83
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Portugal
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.95
0.90
0.89
0.89
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
-5.56
Russia
2.15
1.76
1.80
1.62
2.02
0.93
1.67
1.85
4.33
1.64
3.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.36
82.70
Belarus
0.60
0.52
0.58
0.58
2.83
2.31
2.61
2.61
1.70
1.20
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.30
25.00
Ukraine
0.46
0.28
0.29
0.29
2.07
1.66
1.93
1.93
0.95
0.46
0.55
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.09
18.53
Canada
0.12
0.09
0.08
0.07
2.43
2.61
2.44
2.48
0.28
0.23
0.20
0.18
-0.01
-7.18
-0.05
-21.98
Turkey
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.13
2.49
2.08
2.08
2.08
0.34
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.05
0.02
0.04
0.04
1.15
1.67
1.43
1.43
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.01
25.00
Kazakhstan
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.23
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Australia
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Switzerland
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.67
6.67
6.67
6.67
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
1.36
1.39
1.39
1.39
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EU-27
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
40.68
40.85
40.66
40.66
1.46
1.60
1.49
1.50
59.26
65.36
60.71
60.80
0.09
0.14
-4.56
-6.98
United States
2.23
1.95
1.78
1.78
4.35
4.51
3.44
3.49
9.73
8.77
6.11
6.20
0.09
1.44
-2.57
-29.33
Total Foreign
38.45
38.91
38.88
38.88
1.29
1.45
1.40
1.40
49.54
56.59
54.60
54.60
0.00
0.00
-1.99
-3.52
Nigeria
7.50
7.60
7.60
7.60
1.53
1.54
1.54
1.54
11.50
11.70
11.70
11.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Sudan
6.00
6.20
6.20
6.20
0.44
0.83
0.68
0.68
2.63
5.16
4.20
4.20
0.00
0.00
-0.96
-18.60
Ethiopia
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.34
1.68
1.68
1.68
2.08
2.60
2.60
2.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burkina
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.62
0.94
1.20
1.11
1.11
1.52
1.95
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-7.69
Tanzania
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.79
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.71
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Niger
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.49
1.00
0.60
0.60
0.74
1.50
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
-0.60
-40.00
Uganda
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
1.60
1.68
1.61
1.61
0.50
0.52
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-3.85
Mozambique
0.61
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ghana
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
1.03
1.06
1.03
1.03
0.35
0.36
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-2.78
South Africa
0.09
0.07
0.09
0.09
2.26
2.86
2.56
2.56
0.20
0.20
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.03
15.00
India
7.50
7.20
7.20
7.20
0.89
0.94
0.94
0.94
6.70
6.74
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.89
Pakistan
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.75
0.98
0.85
0.85
4.83
4.74
4.71
4.71
3.63
4.65
4.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
-0.65
-13.98
Brazil
0.79
0.72
0.70
0.70
2.34
2.51
2.43
2.43
1.85
1.79
1.70
1.70
0.00
0.00
-0.09
-5.24
Mexico
1.62
1.70
1.75
1.75
3.87
3.73
3.89
3.89
6.25
6.34
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
0.46
7.26
China
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.60
3.00
3.10
3.08
3.08
1.68
1.80
1.85
1.85
0.00
0.00
0.05
2.78
Australia
0.52
0.68
0.70
0.70
3.10
3.53
3.43
3.43
1.60
2.40
2.40
2.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Egypt
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
5.63
5.63
5.63
5.63
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EU-27
0.12
0.12
0.14
0.14
5.22
5.51
5.52
5.52
0.62
0.63
0.76
0.76
0.00
0.00
0.13
20.19
France
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.06
5.40
5.66
5.64
5.64
0.31
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.00
0.00
0.01
3.33
Italy
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.06
6.08
6.61
6.16
6.16
0.24
0.27
0.39
0.39
0.00
0.00
0.12
43.17
Others
5.78
5.83
5.81
5.81
0.96
1.02
0.99
0.99
5.55
5.96
5.73
5.73
0.00
0.00
-0.24
-3.94
World
none
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
South America
September 2011
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
156.02
158.59
160.03
160.28
4.22
4.27
4.27
4.29
440.33
451.19
456.25
458.38
2.13
0.47
7.19
1.59
United States
1.26
1.46
1.07
1.06
7.94
7.54
7.97
8.15
7.13
7.59
6.04
6.13
0.09
1.47
-1.47
-19.33
Total Foreign
154.77
157.13
158.96
159.22
4.19
4.24
4.25
4.26
433.20
443.59
450.21
452.25
2.04
0.45
8.66
1.95
China
29.63
29.82
29.90
29.90
6.59
6.56
6.59
6.64
136.57
137.00
138.00
139.00
1.00
0.72
2.00
1.46
Japan
1.62
1.63
1.60
1.60
6.52
6.51
6.59
6.59
7.71
7.72
7.68
7.68
0.00
0.00
-0.04
-0.52
Korea, South
0.92
0.89
0.86
0.86
7.04
6.51
6.70
6.70
4.92
4.30
4.24
4.24
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-1.28
Korea, North
0.59
0.58
0.58
0.58
5.02
4.24
4.51
4.51
1.91
1.60
1.70
1.70
0.00
0.00
0.10
6.25
India
41.85
44.00
44.50
44.50
3.19
3.25
3.27
3.27
89.09
95.30
97.00
97.00
0.00
0.00
1.70
1.78
Bangladesh
11.60
11.80
12.00
12.00
4.01
4.18
4.13
4.13
31.00
32.90
33.00
33.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.30
2.80
2.10
2.80
2.80
3.64
3.36
3.64
3.64
6.80
4.70
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
2.10
44.68
World
none
East Asia
South Asia
Pakistan
Southeast Asia
12.10
12.38
12.15
12.15
4.73
4.75
4.83
4.83
36.37
37.06
37.30
37.30
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.65
Vietnam
7.42
7.58
7.44
7.44
5.39
5.47
5.47
5.47
24.99
25.90
25.43
25.43
0.00
0.00
-0.47
-1.81
Thailand
Indonesia
10.94
10.67
10.90
10.90
2.81
2.88
2.88
2.88
20.26
20.26
20.75
20.75
0.00
0.00
0.49
2.41
Burma
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
2.60
2.65
2.71
2.71
10.55
10.75
11.00
11.00
0.00
0.00
0.25
2.33
Philippines
4.41
4.53
4.48
4.64
3.52
3.69
3.83
3.73
9.77
10.54
10.80
10.90
0.10
0.93
0.36
3.43
Cambodia
2.68
2.78
2.78
2.78
2.84
2.97
2.97
2.97
4.78
5.20
5.20
5.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Laos
0.89
0.87
0.89
0.89
3.61
3.45
3.74
3.74
1.92
1.80
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
11.11
Malaysia
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
3.71
3.71
3.74
3.74
1.62
1.61
1.63
1.63
0.00
0.00
0.02
1.24
Brazil
2.77
2.82
2.70
2.80
4.22
4.83
4.30
4.64
7.93
9.26
7.90
8.84
0.94
11.90
-0.42
-4.50
Peru
0.41
0.39
0.34
0.34
7.40
7.27
7.10
7.10
2.09
1.96
1.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
-0.29
-14.87
Nigeria
2.10
2.15
2.17
2.17
2.06
2.07
2.07
2.07
2.60
2.67
2.70
2.70
0.00
0.00
0.03
1.12
Madagascar
1.38
1.38
1.38
1.38
3.05
3.48
3.27
3.27
2.69
3.06
2.88
2.88
0.00
0.00
-0.18
-5.94
EU-27
0.46
0.47
0.46
0.46
6.49
6.25
6.44
6.44
1.89
1.87
1.90
1.90
0.00
0.00
0.03
1.71
Italy
0.24
0.25
0.24
0.24
6.74
6.28
6.52
6.52
0.98
0.95
0.97
0.97
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.11
Spain
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
6.42
6.36
6.39
6.39
0.54
0.54
0.55
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.67
0.45
0.76
0.76
9.87
10.60
9.51
9.51
4.30
3.10
4.70
4.70
0.00
0.00
1.60
51.61
South America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Egypt
Iran
Others
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.54
4.20
4.21
4.21
4.21
1.49
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.35
11.65
12.08
12.08
2.97
3.10
3.10
3.10
21.95
23.54
24.44
24.44
0.00
0.00
0.89
3.79
September 2011
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
World Total
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
442.69
452.88
451.44
452.98
1.54
0.34
0.11
Total Foreign
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
343.79
352.49
359.76
360.57
0.81
0.22
8.08
2.29
Oilseed, Copra
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
5.88
5.89
5.84
5.84
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-0.95
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
12.22
12.65
13.36
13.36
0.00
0.00
0.71
5.60
205.23
211.92
217.59
217.76
2.07
2.05
1.99
1.99
424.60
434.33
432.24
433.78
1.54
0.36
-0.55
-0.13
35.51
37.18
35.35
35.42
2.79
2.70
2.59
2.61
98.90
100.38
91.68
92.41
0.73
0.80
-7.97
-7.94
169.71
174.74
182.24
182.34
1.92
1.91
1.87
1.87
325.69
333.95
340.56
341.37
0.81
0.24
7.42
2.22
50.21
51.71
53.75
53.75
2.80
2.81
2.72
2.71
140.71
145.20
145.94
145.93
-0.01
-0.01
0.73
0.50
Brazil
24.50
25.78
26.48
26.48
2.91
3.07
2.91
2.91
71.36
79.03
77.13
77.11
-0.01
-0.01
-1.91
-2.42
Argentina
20.75
20.89
21.84
21.84
2.79
2.59
2.62
2.62
57.94
54.01
57.13
57.13
0.00
0.00
3.12
5.78
Paraguay
2.82
3.03
3.22
3.22
2.61
2.83
2.42
2.42
7.35
8.57
7.78
7.78
0.00
0.00
-0.79
-9.20
0.02
none
Major OilSeeds
United States
none
Foreign Oilseeds
South America
1.14
0.99
1.06
1.06
1.74
1.75
1.70
1.70
1.98
1.73
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.07
3.87
China
27.10
26.52
26.31
26.31
2.13
2.18
2.18
2.19
57.84
57.69
57.23
57.62
0.39
0.68
-0.07
-0.12
South Asia
37.21
38.31
40.13
40.08
1.00
1.02
1.02
1.01
37.07
39.17
40.84
40.55
-0.29
-0.71
1.38
3.52
33.06
34.26
35.60
35.65
0.96
1.00
0.98
0.98
31.62
34.10
34.95
34.79
-0.16
-0.46
0.69
2.02
3.83
3.73
4.20
4.10
1.36
1.29
1.34
1.34
5.19
4.81
5.63
5.50
-0.13
-2.31
0.69
14.24
-2.96
Bolivia
India
Pakistan
11.05
11.41
11.59
11.64
2.69
2.54
2.41
2.41
29.69
28.94
27.96
28.08
0.12
0.43
-0.86
France
2.25
2.21
2.28
2.33
3.30
2.98
2.96
3.04
7.43
6.58
6.75
7.08
0.33
4.81
0.50
7.52
Germany
1.50
1.51
1.46
1.48
4.26
3.81
3.11
2.88
6.36
5.75
4.55
4.25
-0.30
-6.59
-1.50
-26.04
Poland
0.83
0.86
0.81
0.79
3.05
2.63
2.49
2.31
2.52
2.25
2.01
1.81
-0.20
-9.82
-0.44
-19.41
Romania
1.26
1.45
1.46
1.38
1.48
1.62
1.50
1.59
1.87
2.35
2.19
2.21
0.02
0.82
-0.15
-6.17
Hungary
0.82
0.80
0.84
0.81
2.32
2.03
2.27
2.31
1.91
1.63
1.90
1.88
-0.02
-1.21
0.25
15.01
EU-27
0.58
0.64
0.65
0.70
3.36
3.47
3.39
3.45
1.95
2.22
2.20
2.40
0.20
8.99
0.18
8.11
16.43
17.84
20.27
20.27
1.28
1.18
1.29
1.29
21.06
21.05
26.16
26.16
0.00
0.00
5.11
24.28
Russia
6.95
7.20
9.30
9.30
1.16
1.01
1.17
1.17
8.03
7.24
10.85
10.85
0.00
0.00
3.61
49.82
Ukraine
5.83
6.43
6.45
6.45
1.59
1.54
1.69
1.69
9.28
9.92
10.90
10.90
0.00
0.00
0.98
9.89
Uzbekistan
1.30
1.30
1.34
1.34
1.17
1.23
1.27
1.27
1.53
1.60
1.70
1.70
0.00
0.00
0.10
6.25
7.83
8.05
8.67
8.77
2.11
2.14
1.93
1.97
16.51
17.23
16.72
17.32
0.60
3.59
0.08
0.48
12.17
12.54
12.89
12.89
0.89
0.92
0.92
0.92
10.86
11.52
11.81
11.81
0.00
0.00
0.29
2.53
2.08
2.10
2.05
2.05
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.06
2.19
2.21
2.17
2.17
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-1.45
3.57
3.57
3.59
3.59
1.33
1.33
1.35
1.35
4.75
4.76
4.84
4.84
0.00
0.00
0.07
1.51
1.29
1.23
1.23
1.23
1.52
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.96
1.91
1.90
1.90
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-0.52
Australia
1.68
2.28
2.39
2.39
1.55
1.57
1.70
1.70
2.60
3.58
4.06
4.06
0.00
0.00
0.48
13.40
Others
2.47
2.50
2.65
2.65
1.86
1.92
1.89
1.89
4.59
4.81
5.01
5.01
0.00
0.00
0.20
4.22
United Kingdom
Former Soviet Union - 12
Canada
Africa
Nigeria
Southeast Asia
Indonesia
World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel)
Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
102.16
102.72
104.09
104.76
2.55
2.57
2.47
2.47
260.84
264.12
257.47
258.99
1.52
0.59
-5.13
-1.94
United States
30.91
31.01
29.88
29.88
2.96
2.92
2.78
2.81
91.42
90.61
83.17
83.97
0.80
0.96
-6.64
-7.33
Total Foreign
71.25
71.71
74.21
74.88
2.38
2.42
2.35
2.34
169.42
173.51
174.30
175.02
0.72
0.41
1.51
0.87
Brazil
23.50
24.20
25.00
25.00
2.94
3.12
2.94
2.94
69.00
75.50
73.50
73.50
0.00
0.00
-2.00
-2.65
Argentina
18.60
18.30
19.30
19.30
2.93
2.68
2.75
2.75
54.50
49.00
53.00
53.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
8.16
Paraguay
2.68
2.84
3.00
3.00
2.69
2.92
2.50
2.50
7.20
8.30
7.50
7.50
0.00
0.00
-0.80
-9.64
Bolivia
0.90
0.85
0.90
0.90
1.85
1.86
1.76
1.76
1.67
1.58
1.58
1.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Uruguay
0.86
0.87
1.00
1.00
2.11
1.79
1.80
1.80
1.82
1.55
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.26
16.50
China
9.19
8.52
8.25
8.25
1.63
1.77
1.70
1.70
14.98
15.10
14.00
14.00
0.00
0.00
-1.10
-7.28
Korea, South
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
1.99
1.46
1.69
1.69
0.14
0.11
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.03
30.48
Korea, North
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
1.08
1.19
1.19
1.19
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Japan
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.63
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
India
9.60
9.30
9.60
10.27
1.01
1.05
1.02
1.02
9.70
9.80
9.80
10.50
0.70
7.14
0.70
7.14
Canada
1.38
1.48
1.50
1.50
2.54
2.94
2.67
2.67
3.51
4.35
4.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
-0.35
-7.94
Ukraine
0.62
1.04
1.10
1.10
1.68
1.62
1.73
1.73
1.04
1.68
1.90
1.90
0.00
0.00
0.22
13.10
Russia
0.79
1.04
1.20
1.20
1.19
1.18
1.25
1.25
0.94
1.22
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.28
22.75
Indonesia
0.53
0.47
0.47
0.47
1.32
1.38
1.38
1.38
0.70
0.65
0.64
0.64
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-1.54
Vietnam
0.15
0.20
0.22
0.22
1.47
1.50
1.63
1.63
0.21
0.30
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.05
17.85
Thailand
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.12
1.55
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burma
0.16
0.17
0.17
0.17
1.20
1.21
1.21
1.21
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EU-27
0.31
0.37
0.42
0.42
2.71
2.80
2.86
2.90
0.84
1.05
1.20
1.22
0.02
1.67
0.17
16.52
Italy
0.14
0.16
0.20
0.21
3.47
3.45
3.44
3.53
0.47
0.55
0.70
0.75
0.05
7.28
0.20
36.23
France
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.06
2.50
2.80
2.73
2.73
0.11
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.01
7.14
South Africa
0.31
0.42
0.42
0.42
1.82
1.70
1.79
1.79
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.04
5.63
Nigeria
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Uganda
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Serbia
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
2.41
2.41
2.41
2.41
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mexico
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Iran
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
2.46
2.47
2.47
2.47
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.32
0.31
0.32
0.32
1.86
1.91
1.91
1.91
0.60
0.59
0.61
0.61
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.89
World
none
South America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
29.49
32.68
34.43
34.91
1.32
1.32
1.34
1.33
39.00
43.19
46.20
46.55
0.35
0.75
3.36
7.78
United States
3.05
4.33
3.91
3.99
1.24
1.28
1.29
1.27
3.76
5.53
5.05
5.05
0.00
-0.04
-0.49
-8.79
Total Foreign
26.44
28.35
30.52
30.92
1.33
1.33
1.35
1.34
35.23
37.66
41.15
41.50
0.35
0.85
3.85
10.22
5.30
5.15
5.50
5.50
2.37
2.32
2.35
2.42
12.54
11.95
12.93
13.32
0.39
3.02
1.37
11.46
10.31
11.16
12.00
12.50
0.95
0.97
0.96
0.93
9.80
10.80
11.50
11.60
0.10
0.87
0.80
7.41
3.00
2.90
3.30
3.20
1.39
1.31
1.36
1.37
4.18
3.80
4.50
4.37
-0.13
-2.89
0.57
15.00
Uzbekistan
1.30
1.30
1.34
1.34
1.17
1.23
1.27
1.27
1.53
1.60
1.70
1.70
0.00
0.00
0.10
6.25
Turkmenistan
0.55
0.64
0.65
0.65
0.89
0.98
0.96
0.96
0.49
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Tajikistan
0.17
0.17
0.20
0.20
0.88
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.15
0.16
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.05
29.03
Kazakhstan
0.12
0.13
0.15
0.15
1.25
0.85
1.03
1.03
0.15
0.11
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.05
40.91
Brazil
0.84
1.40
1.30
1.30
2.43
2.26
2.50
2.49
2.03
3.17
3.25
3.24
-0.01
-0.34
0.07
2.34
Argentina
0.44
0.61
0.63
0.63
0.70
0.73
0.68
0.68
0.31
0.45
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-4.49
Turkey
0.28
0.32
0.45
0.45
2.04
2.16
2.11
2.11
0.57
0.69
0.95
0.95
0.00
0.00
0.26
37.68
Syria
0.17
0.13
0.15
0.15
2.75
2.75
2.73
2.73
0.45
0.34
0.41
0.41
0.00
0.00
0.07
19.19
Iran
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Australia
0.20
0.59
0.55
0.55
2.73
2.20
2.55
2.55
0.55
1.30
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.10
7.69
EU-27
0.31
0.31
0.37
0.37
1.13
1.20
1.24
1.24
0.35
0.38
0.46
0.46
0.00
0.00
0.08
22.40
Greece
0.25
0.25
0.30
0.30
1.22
1.20
1.25
1.25
0.31
0.30
0.38
0.38
0.00
0.00
0.08
25.00
Spain
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.73
1.19
1.20
1.20
0.04
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.01
12.00
Burkina
0.42
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.46
0.45
0.48
0.48
0.19
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.01
7.22
Mali
0.25
0.26
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.52
0.50
0.50
0.13
0.13
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.06
47.76
Cameroon
0.15
0.14
0.18
0.18
0.75
0.98
1.00
1.00
0.11
0.14
0.18
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.04
27.74
Sudan
0.03
0.04
0.09
0.09
0.96
1.21
0.94
0.94
0.03
0.05
0.09
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.03
66.67
Zimbabwe
0.38
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.48
0.51
0.51
0.19
0.19
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.03
14.74
Nigeria
0.40
0.41
0.36
0.36
0.49
0.50
0.48
0.48
0.19
0.21
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-15.61
Benin
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.17
0.64
0.55
0.63
0.63
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.01
8.08
Uganda
0.07
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.74
1.09
1.31
1.31
0.05
0.11
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.02
20.18
Egypt
0.12
0.16
0.21
0.21
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
0.14
0.18
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.06
35.59
Mexico
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burma
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.96
0.94
1.08
1.08
0.51
0.52
0.56
0.56
0.49
0.49
0.61
0.61
0.00
0.00
0.12
23.42
World
none
China
South Asia
India
Pakistan
Former Soviet Union - 12
South America
Middle East
Sub-Saharan Africa
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
20.40
21.35
21.25
20.25
1.64
1.68
1.66
1.69
33.36
35.81
35.27
34.30
-0.97
-2.75
-1.51
-4.21
United States
0.44
0.51
0.45
0.45
3.83
3.71
3.62
3.48
1.68
1.89
1.64
1.57
-0.07
-4.27
-0.32
-16.82
Total Foreign
19.96
20.84
20.80
19.80
1.59
1.63
1.62
1.65
31.68
33.92
33.63
32.73
-0.90
-2.68
-1.19
-3.51
4.38
4.53
4.50
4.50
3.36
3.45
3.44
3.44
14.71
15.64
15.50
15.50
0.00
0.00
-0.14
-0.90
India
5.30
6.00
6.00
5.00
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.02
4.90
6.00
6.00
5.10
-0.90
-15.00
-0.90
-15.00
Pakistan
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.84
7.80
7.80
7.80
0.93
0.95
0.93
0.93
7.32
7.39
7.29
7.29
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-1.29
Nigeria
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Senegal
1.06
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.97
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.03
1.10
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-9.09
Chad
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
1.32
1.32
1.32
1.32
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ghana
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Sudan
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Congo (Kinshasa)
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burkina
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Guinea
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.24
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cameroon
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mali
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Malawi
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cote d'Ivoire
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Uganda
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
1.12
1.12
1.12
1.12
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Benin
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mozambique
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Niger
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
South Africa
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
2.05
2.09
2.18
2.18
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.01
4.35
Indonesia
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burma
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.49
1.49
1.49
1.49
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Vietnam
0.25
0.24
0.25
0.25
2.11
1.99
2.10
2.10
0.53
0.49
0.52
0.52
0.00
0.00
0.03
5.97
Thailand
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.22
0.28
0.27
0.27
3.80
3.57
3.40
3.40
0.84
1.00
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-10.00
Brazil
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
2.47
2.50
2.60
2.60
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.00
0.00
0.01
4.00
Egypt
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
3.17
3.17
3.17
3.17
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mexico
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
1.56
1.56
1.56
1.56
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
2.37
2.34
2.34
2.34
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.01
1.14
World
none
China
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Southeast Asia
South America
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
22.08
22.38
24.59
24.52
1.38
1.39
1.41
1.42
30.39
31.13
34.79
34.83
0.04
0.11
3.69
11.86
United States
0.79
0.76
0.68
0.68
1.74
1.64
1.60
1.60
1.38
1.24
1.08
1.08
0.00
0.00
-0.16
-12.65
Total Foreign
21.29
21.62
23.91
23.84
1.36
1.38
1.41
1.42
29.02
29.89
33.70
33.74
0.04
0.12
3.85
12.88
Russia
5.60
5.55
7.30
7.30
1.15
0.96
1.14
1.14
6.43
5.35
8.30
8.30
0.00
0.00
2.95
55.14
Ukraine
4.19
4.53
4.50
4.50
1.52
1.50
1.67
1.67
6.36
6.77
7.50
7.50
0.00
0.00
0.73
10.80
Moldova
0.23
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.25
1.51
1.60
1.60
0.28
0.38
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.02
4.44
Kazakhstan
0.72
1.10
1.20
1.20
0.51
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.37
0.45
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.05
11.11
Argentina
1.49
1.70
1.65
1.65
1.55
2.10
1.70
1.70
2.30
3.56
2.80
2.80
0.00
0.00
-0.76
-21.35
Uruguay
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.90
1.60
1.50
1.50
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-53.13
Bolivia
0.24
0.14
0.16
0.16
1.32
1.07
1.38
1.38
0.31
0.15
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.07
43.79
China
0.96
0.95
0.96
0.96
2.04
2.00
2.08
2.08
1.96
1.90
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
5.26
EU-27
3.90
3.74
4.00
4.05
1.77
1.85
1.88
1.88
6.91
6.92
7.50
7.60
0.10
1.33
0.68
9.84
France
0.73
0.70
0.73
0.73
2.34
2.36
2.48
2.48
1.70
1.64
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.16
9.76
Hungary
0.53
0.50
0.54
0.54
2.35
1.98
2.41
2.41
1.26
0.99
1.30
1.30
0.00
0.00
0.31
31.31
Spain
0.85
0.70
0.80
0.80
1.02
1.27
1.13
1.16
0.87
0.89
0.90
0.93
0.03
2.78
0.04
4.28
Italy
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.11
1.98
2.20
2.20
2.20
0.25
0.22
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.02
9.01
Slovakia
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
2.23
2.10
2.20
2.20
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.08
India
1.40
0.80
1.00
0.88
0.59
0.63
0.65
0.67
0.82
0.50
0.65
0.59
-0.06
-9.23
0.09
18.00
Pakistan
0.45
0.45
0.50
0.50
1.52
1.52
1.50
1.50
0.69
0.69
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.07
9.49
Turkey
0.46
0.49
0.47
0.47
1.74
2.06
1.83
1.83
0.80
1.00
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-15.00
South Africa
0.40
0.65
0.65
0.65
1.23
1.29
1.31
1.31
0.49
0.83
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.41
Burma
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Serbia
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Canada
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.60
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Australia
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
1.29
1.43
1.43
1.43
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.42
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.92
1.02
1.02
1.02
0.38
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.01
1.12
World
none
Former Soviet Union - 12
South America
South Asia
September 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
31.10
32.79
33.22
33.32
1.96
1.83
1.76
1.77
61.01
60.08
58.52
59.12
0.60
1.03
-0.97
-1.61
United States
0.33
0.58
0.43
0.43
2.03
1.92
1.72
1.72
0.67
1.11
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
-0.37
-33.12
Total Foreign
30.77
32.21
32.79
32.89
1.96
1.83
1.76
1.77
60.34
58.97
57.77
58.37
0.60
1.04
-0.60
-1.01
World
none
6.53
6.98
6.80
6.80
3.31
2.95
2.76
2.76
21.59
20.59
18.80
18.80
0.00
0.00
-1.79
-8.71
Germany
1.47
1.49
1.44
1.45
4.29
3.83
3.13
2.89
6.31
5.69
4.50
4.20
-0.30
-6.67
-1.49
-26.21
France
1.48
1.47
1.50
1.55
3.80
3.28
3.20
3.31
5.62
4.80
4.80
5.13
0.33
6.77
0.33
6.77
United Kingdom
0.58
0.64
0.65
0.70
3.36
3.47
3.39
3.45
1.95
2.22
2.20
2.40
0.20
8.99
0.18
8.11
Poland
0.82
0.85
0.80
0.78
3.06
2.63
2.50
2.31
2.51
2.24
2.00
1.80
-0.20
-10.00
-0.44
-19.50
Czech Republic
0.36
0.37
0.39
0.37
3.18
2.82
2.71
2.83
1.13
1.04
1.06
1.06
0.00
0.00
0.01
1.34
Denmark
0.16
0.17
0.15
0.15
3.90
3.46
3.33
3.33
0.64
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-13.04
Hungary
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.24
2.23
2.15
2.04
2.22
0.58
0.56
0.53
0.53
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-5.36
Romania
0.44
0.58
0.47
0.39
1.55
1.67
1.45
1.75
0.68
0.97
0.68
0.68
0.00
0.00
-0.30
-30.41
Slovakia
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.15
2.32
1.92
1.99
2.32
0.39
0.32
0.34
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.01
4.02
Sweden
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.12
2.99
2.56
2.61
2.61
0.30
0.28
0.30
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.02
7.53
Lithuania
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.20
2.17
2.10
2.10
2.10
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Latvia
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
2.20
2.31
2.28
2.28
0.21
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-4.65
Austria
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.05
3.00
3.15
3.15
2.89
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.15
-0.02
-11.56
-0.02
-10.00
Finland
0.08
0.16
0.16
0.16
1.57
1.30
1.38
1.29
0.13
0.21
0.22
0.21
-0.02
-6.82
0.00
0.00
Estonia
0.08
0.10
0.10
0.10
1.66
1.33
1.33
1.33
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.28
7.37
7.10
7.10
1.88
1.78
1.80
1.80
13.66
13.10
12.80
12.80
0.00
0.00
-0.30
-2.29
India
6.45
7.00
7.00
7.00
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
6.40
7.00
7.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pakistan
0.27
0.27
0.29
0.29
0.85
0.85
0.97
0.97
0.23
0.23
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.05
21.74
Bangladesh
2.22
EU-27
China
South Asia
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.75
0.75
0.74
0.74
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.01
Canada
6.38
6.50
7.10
7.20
2.02
1.97
1.77
1.83
12.89
12.77
12.60
13.20
0.60
4.76
0.43
3.34
Australia
1.39
1.61
1.75
1.75
1.37
1.34
1.43
1.43
1.91
2.15
2.50
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.35
16.28
Ukraine
1.01
0.86
0.85
0.85
1.85
1.70
1.76
1.76
1.87
1.47
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.03
2.04
Russia
0.56
0.61
0.80
0.80
1.20
1.09
1.31
1.31
0.67
0.67
1.05
1.05
0.00
0.00
0.38
56.72
37.50
Belarus
0.34
0.27
0.35
0.35
1.80
1.48
1.57
1.57
0.61
0.40
0.55
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.15
Paraguay
0.04
0.06
0.07
0.07
1.11
1.59
1.43
1.43
0.04
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
-1.96
Others
0.24
0.37
0.37
0.37
1.06
0.68
0.97
0.97
0.25
0.25
0.36
0.36
0.00
0.00
0.11
42.86
September 2011
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MMT
Percent
MMT
Percent
Oilseed, Copra
Philippines
2.52
2.60
2.60
2.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Indonesia
1.60
1.54
1.48
1.48
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-3.90
India
0.74
0.74
0.74
0.74
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Vietnam
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mexico
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Thailand
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Sri Lanka
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mozambique
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cote d'Ivoire
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.88
5.89
5.84
5.84
0.00
0.00
-0.05
-0.85
World
Oilseed, Palm Kernel
Indonesia
5.88
6.30
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
0.50
7.94
Malaysia
4.52
4.53
4.68
4.68
0.00
0.00
0.15
3.31
Nigeria
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Thailand
0.27
0.26
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.02
7.69
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Colombia
0.10
0.09
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.03
33.33
Cote d'Ivoire
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Brazil
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cameroon
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Congo (Kinshasa)
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.22
12.65
13.36
13.36
0.00
0.00
0.71
5.61
7.63
World
Oil, Palm
Indonesia
22.00
23.60
25.40
25.40
0.00
0.00
1.80
Malaysia
17.76
18.00
18.40
18.40
0.00
0.00
0.40
2.22
Thailand
1.35
1.29
1.45
1.45
0.00
0.00
0.16
12.40
Nigeria
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Colombia
0.77
0.73
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
0.18
25.00
0.49
0.50
0.53
0.53
0.00
0.00
0.03
6.00
Ecuador
0.43
0.46
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.04
8.70
Cote d'Ivoire
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Brazil
0.24
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.02
7.69
Honduras
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.86
47.67
50.28
50.28
0.00
0.00
2.62
5.50
World
September 2011
Area
(Million 1000 HA)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Kilograms per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Change in Production
Production
(Million 480 lb. bales)
Sep
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Aug
Sep
MBales
Percent
Percent
30.11
33.51
35.40
35.81
733
744
755
748
101.38
114.56
122.71
122.96
0.25
0.21
8.41
7.34
United States
3.05
4.33
3.91
3.99
871
910
921
904
12.19
18.10
16.55
16.56
0.00
0.01
-1.55
-8.55
Total Foreign
27.07
29.18
31.49
31.83
717
720
734
728
89.20
96.45
106.16
106.41
0.25
0.24
9.95
10.32
5.30
5.15
5.50
5.50
1,315
1,289
1,306
1,346
32.00
30.50
33.00
34.00
1.00
3.03
3.50
11.48
10.31
11.16
12.00
12.50
486
496
490
470
23.00
25.40
27.00
27.00
0.00
0.00
1.60
6.30
3.00
2.90
3.30
3.20
697
661
680
667
9.60
8.80
10.30
9.80
-0.50
-4.85
1.00
11.36
Uzbekistan
1.30
1.30
1.34
1.34
653
687
699
682
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.20
-0.10
-2.33
0.10
2.44
Turkmenistan
0.55
0.64
0.65
0.58
495
544
536
530
1.25
1.60
1.60
1.40
-0.20
-12.50
-0.20
-12.50
Tajikistan
0.17
0.17
0.20
0.20
480
528
544
544
0.38
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.10
25.00
Kazakhstan
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.14
635
461
583
583
0.35
0.28
0.38
0.38
0.00
0.00
0.10
36.36
Burkina
0.42
0.40
0.40
0.40
363
354
381
381
0.70
0.65
0.70
0.70
0.00
0.00
0.05
7.69
Mali
0.25
0.26
0.40
0.40
383
398
381
381
0.44
0.48
0.70
0.70
0.00
0.00
0.23
47.37
Zimbabwe
0.38
0.40
0.43
0.43
286
272
295
295
0.50
0.50
0.58
0.58
0.00
0.00
0.08
15.00
Benin
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.17
423
363
416
416
0.35
0.30
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.03
8.33
Cote d'Ivoire
0.20
0.21
0.23
0.23
354
363
379
379
0.33
0.35
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.05
14.29
Cameroon
0.15
0.14
0.18
0.18
327
428
435
435
0.23
0.28
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.08
27.27
Nigeria
0.40
0.41
0.36
0.36
248
252
242
242
0.45
0.48
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-15.79
Sudan
0.03
0.04
0.09
0.09
403
518
399
399
0.05
0.10
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.07
65.00
Brazil
0.84
1.40
1.30
1.30
1,419
1,322
1,457
1,457
5.45
8.50
8.70
8.70
0.00
0.00
0.20
2.35
Argentina
0.44
0.61
0.63
0.63
495
455
470
470
1.00
1.28
1.35
1.35
0.00
0.00
0.08
5.88
Paraguay
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.05
302
399
327
327
0.03
0.06
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.02
36.36
Turkey
0.28
0.32
0.45
0.45
1,361
1,429
1,403
1,403
1.75
2.10
2.90
2.90
0.00
0.00
0.80
38.10
Syria
0.17
0.13
0.15
0.15
1,359
1,280
1,306
1,306
1.03
0.74
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
0.17
22.45
Iran
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.14
605
635
645
645
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.05
14.29
Australia
0.20
0.59
0.55
0.55
1,932
1,550
1,781
1,781
1.78
4.20
4.50
4.50
0.00
0.00
0.30
7.14
EU-27
0.26
0.31
0.37
0.37
888
762
972
972
1.07
1.07
1.66
1.66
0.00
0.00
0.59
55.58
Greece
0.20
0.24
0.30
0.30
1,023
771
1,016
1,016
0.94
0.85
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.55
64.71
Spain
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.07
424
715
778
778
0.12
0.21
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.04
20.77
Egypt
0.12
0.16
0.21
0.21
790
843
804
804
0.43
0.60
0.78
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.18
29.17
Mexico
0.07
0.12
0.18
0.19
1,313
1,338
1,331
1,318
0.42
0.71
1.10
1.15
0.05
4.55
0.44
61.29
Others
1.82
1.92
2.09
2.09
291
301
324
324
2.43
2.66
3.11
3.11
0.00
0.00
0.45
16.85
World
none
China
South Asia
India
Pakistan
Former Soviet Union - 12
Sub-Saharan Africa
South America
Middle East
September 2011
TABLE 18
The table below presents a record of the differences between the September projection and the final
Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error means that chances
are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.1 percent.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.6 percent. The average
difference between the September projection and the final estimate is 9.3 million tons, ranging from 0.9
million to 30.7 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 19 times and above 11
times.
RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/
COMMODITY AND
REGION
Root mean
square error
90 percent
confidence
interval
Average
Percent
Smallest
Largest
Years
Below
Above
final
final
WHEAT
World
2.1
3.6
9.3
0.9
30.7
19
11
U.S.
1.8
3.1
0.9
0.0
2.5
12
18
Foreign
2.4
4.1
9.2
1.0
30.9
20
10
World
2.2
3.7
15.3
0.2
50.6
23
U.S.
4.7
7.9
8.7
0.2
26.0
20
10
Foreign
2.3
3.9
12.3
1.0
29.6
22
World
2.5
4.3
6.9
0.4
24.1
24
U.S.
4.7
8.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
16
13
Foreign
2.6
4.4
6.8
0.3
24.4
24
World
4.6
7.8
6.1
0.4
27.4
19
11
U.S.
5.1
8.7
3.0
0.9
8.3
17
13
Foreign
7.8
13.3
6.2
1.0
29.1
16
14
COARSE GRAINS 2/
RICE (Milled)
SOYBEANS
COTTON
World
4.6
7.9
3.1
0.1
12.6
18
12
U.S.
6.5
11.0
0.9
0.0
2.4
16
13
Foreign
5.3
9.0
2.7
0.0
11.2
18
12
-------Million bushels-------
UNITED STATES
CORN
4.9
8.4
325
15
885
20
10
SORGHUM
6.3
10.7
27
81
13
16
BARLEY
4.9
8.4
12
36
12
18
OATS
8.9
15.1
13
44
24
1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2009/10. Final is defined as the first November estimate following the
marketing year, and for 2010/11 last month's estimate.
2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain
September 2011
September 2011