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Key Stock Summary
Current Market Price BSE Code Bloomberg Ticker Face Value Shares Outstanding (in crs) Market Cap (Rs crs) Enterprise Value (Rs crs) 52-week range (Rs)(H/L) Beta Avg. daily Volumes 2 Week Dividend Yield (%) 244.45 532715 GITG IN 10 8.51 2079.3 4674.6 253.20 / 94 0.851 1032926 0.8
Investment Rationale
Gitanjali Gems plans to restructure its business which will unlock its value for shareholder's
Gitanjali Gems, which owns brands such as Nakshatra and Ddamas, is going in for restructuring. The company has roped in KPMG to help in restructuring its businesses. The board has decided to explore the potential merger of subsidiaries, demerger and other forms of restructuring, or acquisition, or spin-offs with the ultimate aim of enhancing and unlocking shareholder value. The restructuring initiative is expected to be completed over the next year. As per the company, they believe that their retail brands are worth Rs 5,000 crores. Hence we believe that its intrinsic value of the company would be much more than the existing market cap once the restructuring is done.
Valuation
20600 19800 19000 18200 17400 16600 15800 15000 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10
SENSEX
240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10
We believe Gitanjali Gems Limited is all set to generate higher revenues with good margins and also unlock its hidden value by restructuring and real estate. At current price of Rs. 244.25, the stock is trading at a PE of 8.1x and 5.2x and P/BV of 0.8x and 0.7x for FY11E and FY12E respectively. The valuation looks attractive and we recommend OUTPERFORMER on the stock with a target price of Rs. 338 per share (PE of7.2 x for FY12E), an upside of 38%.
Gitanjali Gems
Financial Snapshot
Source: Company, DFPL Research
FY09
5088.9 327.0 6.4% 150.6 3.0% 17.7 5.0% 7.2% 13.8 12.6
FY10
6527.6 446.0 6.8% 200.2 3.1% 23.8 6.9% 9.1% 10.3 10.4
FY11E
7833.2 509.2 6.5% 254.7 3.3% 30.2 7.4% 9.2% 8.1 8.6
FY12E
9243.1 693.2 7.5% 395.8 4.3% 47.0 8.9% 12.6% 5.2 6.6
Research Team
Email: research@dugad.co.in Contact: 022-32255002/32255003 Mobile: 9004094415
Email : research@dugad.co.in
Email : research@dugad.co.in
Increase in demand and positive industry outlook defines promising growth potentials
Gems and Jewellery is primarily used to decorate and adorn. The demand for different types of Gems and Jewellery is influenced by several factors like buyers preferences, properties, varieties, unit values, applications, etc. According to World Gold Council (WGC), the Indian jewellery market currently is worth about Rs.700 bn (USD14.58 bn). Of this, the urban jewellery market is valued at Rs.280 bn (USD5.83 bn) and the rural & semirural market is valued at Rs.420 bn (USD 8.75 bn). Gold jewellery forms around 80% of the Indian jewellery market (approx. Rs.560 bn (USD 11.67 bn)), with the balance comprising fabricated studded jewellery that includes diamond studded as well as gemstone studded jewellery. The Indian gems and jewellery industry is competitive in the world market due to its low cost of production and availability of skilled labour. The industry employs over 1.30 mn people directly and indirectly. In addition, the industry has a worldwide distribution network, which has been established over a period of time. India is the largest consumer of gold in the world followed by China and Japan. India consumes nearly 800 tonnes of gold accounting for around 22% of the world gold consumption and nearly 550-600 tonnes of this goes into jewellery consumption. Comparing to the world production, India's share is negligible. India is the largest consumer of gold in the world followed by China and Japan. India consumes nearly 800 tonnes of gold accounting for around 22% of the world gold consumption and nearly 550-600 tonnes of this goes into jewellery consumption. The major suppliers to India include Switzerland, South Africa, Australia, Hong Kong, and UAE. India has well-established capabilities in making hand-made jewellery in traditional as well as modern designs. Indian hand-made jewellery has always had a large ethnic demand in various countries with sizeable Indian immigrant population such as the Middle East and South-East Asian countries. In recent times, India has also developed capabilities in machine-made jewellery. With imported or domestic processed studding, Indian machine made jewellery is expected to generate demand from nonethnic jewellery markets such as USA & Europe. India's exports of gold jewellery were US$ 9.424bn for the FY2009-10. Gold jewellery exports from India have grown at a CAGR of over 26.53% for the past five years. U.A.E., U.S.A. and Singapore are the major export destinations.
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India occupies a prominent place in the global diamond industry and has established its position as the largest exporter of cut and polished diamonds in the world. India, China, Israel and Belgium are the leading countries engaged in the diamond cutting and polishing industry globally.
Tonnes
2008
2009
% ch 2009 vs Q1'09 2008 -20 -15 -16 -18 -5 14 -15 -44 23 -19 6 92 -9 329.4 78.9 49.9 16 13 614.4 149.4 -23.1 69.9 3.9 98.7 465.1 1022.7
Q2'09
Q3'09
Q4'09
Q1'10
Q2'10
Jewellery Consumption Industrial & dental Electronics Other Industrial Dentistry Identifiable Investment Net Retail investment Bar Hoarding Official Coin Medals /Lmitation Coin Other Identified retail Invest. ETFs & similar Products Total identifiable demand
2193 439.1 292.9 90.5 55.7 1179 858.1 385.7 187.3 69.6 215.4 320.9 3811.1
1758.9 373 246.4 73.9 52.7 1348.2 731.1 215.8 230.5 56.6 228.2 617.1 3480
430.6 93.6 60.2 20.2 13.2 245.4 188.7 74.8 56.5 13.8 43.6 56.7 769.6
488 97.2 66.3 17.8 13.2 237.9 196.5 93.6 49.4 17.7 35.7 41.4 823.1
510.9 103.2 70.1 19.9 13.2 250.5 196.5 70.6 54.7 21.2 50.1 54 864.6
473.6 102.8 69.9 20 12.8 205.9 201.5 113.7 44.7 19.7 23.3 4.5 782.3
408.7 107.2 74.6 20.2 12.4 534.4 243.1 96.3 68.7 16.7 61.4 291.3 1050.3
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Gold jewellery demand in India, the largest jewellery market, was little changed from year-earlier levels, down just 2% at 123.0 tonnes. In local currency terms, this translates to a 20% increase in the value of demand to Rs216 billion.
-5 15 -2 25 41 414 34 -54
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Gitanjali Gems plans to restructure its business which will unlock its value for shareholder's
The company has emerged as one of the largest intergraded player into jewellery, manufacturing to retail. Currently the business has grown and they have five different categoriesbasically manufacturing of diamond and jewellery, the retail business and they are also foraying into lifestyle retail. Gitanjali Gems, which owns brands such as Nakshatra and Ddamas, is going in for restructuring. The company has roped in KPMG to help in restructuring its businesses. The board has decided to explore the potential merger of subsidiaries, demerger and other forms of restructuring, or acquisition, or spinoffs with the ultimate aim of enhancing and unlocking shareholder value. The company has emerged as one of the largest intergraded player into jewellery, manufacturing to retail. Currently the business has grown and they have five different categoriesbasically manufacturing of diamond and jewellery, the retail business and they are also foraying into lifestyle retail. They are probably having the highest number of brands world over and they are reckoned as third or fourth or fifth largest in the world as a jewellery brands. Hence they are looking at giving a better visibility and unlocking value. The restructuring initiative is expected to be completed over the next year. As per the company, they believe that their retail brands are worth Rs 5,000 crores. Hence we believe that its intrinsic value of the company would be much more than the existing market cap once the restructuring is done.
Email : research@dugad.co.in
India's retail industry is expected to grow at 10- 12% to reach USD 416 billion by 2011-12; of which the organised retail market would be around USD 51 billion. Currently, there are three retail formats for jewellery in India. They are: Exclusive outlets at malls and shopping centres, Kiosks/displays in departmental outlets and malls, Display of branded jewellery in shops of local jewelers. Gitanjali is undertaking retail expansion through the organic, inorganic and partnership routes. Currently, Gitanjali occupies around 1 million square feet of retail space in India. Around 60% of the organized mall space in India within the jewellery category belongs to the Gitanjali Group. Gitanjali has more than 400 exclusive distributors, with distribution in more than 2000 retail outlets. The Company has PAN India presence through its over 185 exclusive stores and has more than 215 franchisee stores. At present, Gitanjali has 126 stores in the US. Gitanjali has plans to aggressively expand its domestic outlets. In the coming years, Gitanjali has planned for increasing contribution from jewellery segment to 65-70% of total sales by consolidating acquisitions and enhancing rural penetration. Gitanjali has planned for aggressive retail expansion (entered into Lifestyle Retail as well as Jewel Retail) and is aiming at increasing its retail presence to 2 million square feet in the next three years. It plans to capitalize upon the opportunities available in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, as organized retail as a whole, is expected to grow at 2530% in the next five years. Considering its Retail foray and its Integrated Business Model, we believe that Gitanjali gems will improve its margins in the coming years.
Email : research@dugad.co.in
Key Risk
Execution Risk
Gitanjali plans an aggressive roll-out in the retail segment. We believe the incremental roll-out will depend on the following factors: Success of recently launched stores. The pace of opening of new stores. The terms and conditions for the Jewellers under the associate model. The company's ability to streamline the operations of the stores with good logistics and advertising Support.
Rupee Appreciation
Some of the company's revenue comes from exports. The rupee appreciation against the US dollar could affect the overall competitive cost advantage of Indian Jewellery vis--vis other exporters.
Valuation
We believe Gitanjali Gems Limited is all set to generate higher revenues with good margins and also unlock its hidden value by restructuring and real estate. At current price of Rs. 244.25, the stock is trading at a PE of 8.1x and 5.2x and P/BV of 0.8x and 0.7x for FY11E and FY12E respectively. The valuation looks attractive and we recommend OUTPERFORMER on the stock with a target price of Rs. 338 per share (PE of7.2 x for FY12E), an upside of 38%.
Email : research@dugad.co.in
Ratio Analysis
FY09 Growth Ratios Sales Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%) EPS Growth (%) Profitability Ratios EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) RONW (%) ROCE (%) Per Share Ratios Earnings Per Share Cash Per Share Book Value Per Share Valuation Multiples P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA FY10 FY11E FY12E
5.3% 20.9% -5.6% 6.4% 3.0% 7.2% 5.0% 17.7 21.7 244.2 13.8 1.0 12.6
28.3% 36.4% 34.2% 6.8% 3.1% 9.1% 6.9% 23.8 29.0 260.7 10.3 0.9 10.4
20.0% 14.2% 27.2% 6.5% 3.3% 9.2% 7.4% 30.2 35.7 325.5 8.1 0.8 8.6
18.0% 36.2% 55.4% 7.5% 4.3% 12.6% 8.9% 47.0 52.8 370.0 5.2 0.7 6.6
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Contact us:
Vijay Dugad Managing Director Dugad Finserv Private Limited Intermediaires between Corporate and Institutions 120,Commodity Exchange Bldg, Plot No.2,3,&4, sector 19, Vashi, Navi Mumbai-400 705 PH;022-32255002/32255003 9004094415 vijay@dugad.co.in
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