Transcript

Reconciling with the Newer Middle East

Rima Khalaf Hunaidi
Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia

12 September 2011

This speech was delivered at the conference, The Economics of the Arab Spring.

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Transcript: Reconciling with the Newer Middle East

Rima Khalaf Hunaidi:

Excellencies, distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, Allow me to begin by saying that Im honoured to be invited to address you here today at Chatham House, an institution that has a very long history of facilitating sincere and much-needed debate. Today, in our efforts to understand a rapidly changing world, Chatham House is more necessary than ever. I come from a part of the world that never ceases to surprise. In 1993, Shimon Peres, the Israeli elder statesman, wrote a book entitled The New Middle East. The vision he set forth in that book did not materialize. Later, Neoconservatives in Washington predicted a New Middle East reshaped by military intervention. They even perceived its birth pangs. Yet their predictions also turned out to be terribly wrong. When many countries in the region are undergoing radical transition, we need to try to come up with a new narrative that re-evaluates where the Middle East is, and where it is going. With so many New Middle East narratives being swept away, I should like to humbly set forth my vision of what I, for want of a better term, will call the Newer Middle East. I, too, may be proved wrong. But I believe passionately that this time of great change is a turning point for Arabs, and that some things have changed for good. In my speech, I would like to address three major issues: Firstly: What are the new regional realities? Secondly: What are the short-to-medium term challenges? And lastly: How can the world help Arabs fulfil their aspirations? Ladies and Gentlemen, It has been nine months since the Arab revolt erupted. So far that revolt had led to the overthrow of three dictators and has, at the very least, shaken the thrones of almost all others. Although some observers had predicted that change was coming to the region, very few thought it would happen so quickly and on such a massive scale. But the signs were there. Almost a decade ago, UNDP published its first Arab Human Development Report. Authored by a team of distinguished Arab intellectuals, the report offered a profound insight: that Arabs would continue to lag behind other peoples until they overcame three key deficits: in

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Transcript: Reconciling with the Newer Middle East

freedom, in knowledge and in womens empowerment. Its message boiled down to one simple fact: the status quo was untenable. UNDPs third report on this topic concluded that Arabs had become disillusioned with promises of reform by Arab rulers, and with what they perceived as insincere Western initiatives. Arabs were suffering multiple injustices: domestic oppression and increasing marginalization, compounded by foreign encroachment on Arab rights. Arabs, the report concluded, were rapidly moving from a mindset of intimidation and apathy to a combustible mix of righteous indignation and anger. A threshold would inevitably be crossed, ushering in long-awaited change. This is what happened. The old Arab order is crumbling. A new order is evolving. Though its details are still unclear, this new order will be shaped by five emerging realities. Reality Number One: The theory of Arab Exceptionalism has been irrevocably shattered To the comfort of Arab autocrats, the theory of Arab Exceptionalism postulated that ethnic traditions, religious practices and linguistic

characteristics rendered Arabs unsuitable for democracy. It was a convenient theory that also allowed some foreign policymakers to ignore, or at least suspend, their espoused values. Whether its proponents truly believed in it is a moot point. But propagating such ideas has left an unpleasant aftertaste. Reality Number Two: There is no going back to a pre-December 2010 world The transformations that have taken place in Arab countries are non-linear and irreversible. In such transformations, a very small and incremental change in one variable, such as an uncalculated insult to a street vendor, can lead to a breakdown of the whole system. It is like the last drop of water that causes a landslide, or the straw that breaks the camels back. The barriers of fear have been shattered. The Arab masses have discovered that they have a voice, and that they can make a difference. The fall of Mubarak and Ben Ali will continue to inspire others. To terrorize the masses back into submission, regimes will have to resort to something bordering on genocide. Reality Number Three: Democracy will ultimately prevail but the road will be rocky The struggle for rights, freedoms and social justice will continue. In countries that have crossed the first threshold, new mini uprisings may occur, either to

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Transcript: Reconciling with the Newer Middle East

correct a path or to protect the new order against the old guard. With time, the nascent forces of positive change will organize politically and gain a solid footing. Social and economic benefits of the transition will start to accrue. Regional and global powers will also find it more costly to challenge emerging democracies. It is not inconceivable that, five years from now, a vibrant democratic culture, and fully-functioning democratic institutions, will be firmly established, at least in Egypt and Tunisia. Moreover, a stable and democratic Egypt may well trigger another wave of democratization in the region. But here a word of caution: in this next round, there will be no hastily fleeing Ben Alis. Regimes will either willingly reform to pre-empt change, or they will viciously fight back to smother the first signs of protest. Reality Number Four: The West will not be able to call all the shots It is interesting to observe how Western reactions to the Arab revolutions have evolved over the past nine months. Initially the West resorted to tried and tested formulas, seeking to maintain the status quo. The French offer of military support to Ben Ali is an apt example. But that approach no longer works. Then there was a cautious resignation to change; Western States called for peaceful transitions and for presidents to step down. Ironically, and to the chagrin of friendly despots, such calls seemed to occur more rapidly the closer those despots were to Western administrations. The strong relations that the West had with powerful institutions, such as the military and the security establishment, provided the needed comfort for the disposal of a friendly ruler. Much as some would like to present the case as ideals prevailing over interests, Western Governments were often sacrificing a pawn to save a king. Lastly, the strategy shifted towards containing the change and controlling the direction of the transition. To safeguard their interests, regional powers tried to buy their way in, while global powers tried to clip the wings of revolutions. In the process, both discovered that there were new limits on their powers. Although willing, friendly interlocutors could no longer deliver reliably. Reality Number Five: The moribund peace process will finally yield peace Arab despotism, as much as superpower support, has helped sustain Israels occupation of Arab land, despite its violation of international law and all moral values. While paying lip service to the cause of Palestinian liberation,

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Transcript: Reconciling with the Newer Middle East

authoritarian rulers tended to acquiesce in Israels oppression of the Palestinians and the ongoing colonization of their lands. However, Arab democracy will not tolerate indefinite Israeli occupation. The Arab Revolts have revitalized Arab calls for Palestinian liberation. The new wave of support for the Palestinians now emanates from the same principles that brought millions onto the streets, namely dignity, and zero tolerance of injustice and humiliation. Its non-ideological and non-violent nature, and its solid grounding in universal human rights makes this new support for the Palestinian cause more effective and durable. Marginalized for decades, Arab public opinion will now have a decisive influence over foreign policy. Together with the prospect of a further expansion of democracy in the Arab world, this will have a major effect on the behaviour of all stakeholders in the region. Israel will find a stalemate no longer in its interest, the Palestinians, strengthened by genuine Arab support, will get a deal they can live with. And Western powers, forced to rethink their regional strategies, will, it is hoped, play a more constructive and proactive role. Now I would like to turn to the challenges the Arab world faces. The prospect of freedom, justice and good governance for Arabs, and of peace for the region and the world, has the power to keep all parties on track. But the short-to-medium term outlook may not be so rosy. Four main challenges stand out: The first challenge is how to build inclusive institutions and foster a democratic culture. As constitutions are redrafted, political forces will discover that the process of achieving consensus is a greater challenge than the technical details of the document itself. There will be very little disagreement on issues related to basic rights and freedoms. However, two issues will give rise to vibrant debate and a degree of polarization in transitioning countries: number 1: the place of religion in the State and in its Constitution, and number 2: the role of the military in a new democracy. The process of achieving consensus on these two issues will be challenging, particularly since those leading the fight for more progressive societies are still struggling to move from the street to the political arena. This time around, external powers cannot simply pull a Loya Jirga out of a hat and claim that all is well. The process will have to be managed domestically. Furthermore, to be successful and sustainable, it has to ensure the participation of all stakeholders, including traditionally marginalized groups. Much of the future

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prosperity and stability of the region will depend on how this process is carried out. The second challenge is how to avert a setback or a relapse into violence. Those loyal to former regimes will not willingly give up their hold on power or the rents they commandeered from it. Superpowers as well as regional powers whose interests are jeopardized by the new order could well throw their weight behind regressive forces. However, setbacks will come at a very high price. Societies wont just quietly resubmit to autocracy. Violence, perhaps leading to civil war in some countries, cannot be ruled out. One way to mitigate such risks is by ensuring that there are effective transitional justice mechanisms that address the legacies of former regimes and take steps to reinforce social cohesion. Whether such mechanisms are based on the truth and reconciliation model of South Africa or a forgive and forget model will depend on the particular conditions in each country. A balance between justice and inclusiveness on the one hand and averting future conflict on the other must be struck. And here a word of warning: one model that will definitely not yield the desired results is witch-hunting along the lines of the de-Bathification process that occurred in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. In addition, the risk that a country may revert to autocracy can be mitigated by swiftly rehabilitating the armed and security forces, and strengthening the role of the judiciary in upholding the rule of law and safeguarding human rights. The third big challenge is getting economic policies right. The short-term outlook for transitioning economies does not look good. Growth rates will be low or negative due to the decline in tourism, FDI and domestic economic activity. Unemployment and poverty rates are rising. There is also the risk that populist policies, enacted to win the support of the public, will drive up fiscal deficits and increase borrowing costs. Inflation will rise and the current account balance will deteriorate. However, people will willingly pay such a price in exchange for the long-term sustainable benefits that a transition to democracy can bring about. The big challenge is to agree on the economic strategies that need to be adopted. Though not many will dispute the objective of inclusive growth and social justice, a huge divergence of opinion exists on optimal economic strategies to achieve it. What make decisions more difficult are the flaws inherent in economic liberalization and structural adjustment policies that were implemented by ousted regimes. In the absence of good governance they have bred
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corruption and distorted the incentives we need for a healthy private sector to emerge. Former ruling elites became increasingly wealthy, while the majority of the population was further impoverished. With people disillusioned with economic liberalization policies, decision makers may have an understandable tendency to shun them in the short term. It will be unfortunate if governments throw the baby out with the bath water, so to speak. But once political life matures and true representative processes take hold, a healthier and more constructive economic debate can ensue. It is to be hoped that Arab countries will then be able to design economic policies that are neither subject to the dictates of international financial institutions, nor a mere knee-jerk reaction against them. The fourth and biggest challenge is how to manage expectations in the short term. The revolutions are all about freedom, dignity and social justice. People believe that their lives will witness substantial improvements as they start enjoying their freedoms and participating in decisions that affect their lives. But few socio-economic benefits are likely to be achieved in the short term. In the medium term, transparent governance systems, well functioning public institutions, a strong and independent judiciary, and lower levels of corruption will level the playing field and boost investment and growth. But, as we know, economic reforms often take a long time to bear fruit. Moreover, serious economic reform cannot really start before the political process generates stable representative government. In the meantime, a free and open political dialogue can help raise public awareness of the trade-off between short-term gains and long-term prosperity. Having addressed the new realities and the challenges, I would like to turn to the last point. How can the rest of the world help emerging Arab democracies? Well, if the will is there, there is much that the Arab worlds partners can do. They can help countries restart their economies. They can promote administrative and institutional capacity-building, particularly in countries, such as Libya, which have suffered from a weak or non-existent institutional framework. And they can help countries to strengthen their economic governance and regulatory mechanisms. In the short term, three things will remain key: providing humanitarian assistance where necessary, mitigating transition risks, and helping new Arab democracies learn from the experience of other countries that have undergone radical transition.
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Providing technical support and financial assistance is now a top priority. Although this can be financially profitable for all, serious political disagreements may emerge. Beneficiaries, who now can claim a vision of their own, will not always see eye to eye with donors. Though none of the transitioning countries are expected to revert to centrally planned economies or to advocate state control of the means of production, most are expected to opt for a variation of free market economies that has more space for social justice and equity. In addition, the issue of trust may stand in the way of greater cooperation in the short term. Bilateral financial assistance has often been associated with a political price that the generation of the revolution might not be willing to pay. Recent threats to cut assistance to Egypt and the Palestinian Authority are just two reminders of how unwelcome price tags are sometimes attached to bilateral aid. As for international financial institutions, the issue of trust is twofold. Firstly, they were often perceived as representing creditors, particularly in the days of financial stabilization and structural adjustment packages. The interests of the country often seemed to come last. Secondly, those institutions are perceived to embrace an economic ideology that makes them ill-equipped to provide the innovative and unconventional solutions required by the ever-changing problems of transition. Finally, there is the question of intentions. Do outside powers, the West in particular, have an interest in seeing a real transition towards democracy in Arab States? Well, if we look at those powers track record, the answer seems to be no, they do not. Loyal dictators, whose thrones are dependent on outsiders support, are better instruments for those outsiders policies. This is particularly the case when it comes to safeguarding their access to oil, ensuring Israels hegemony over the region or bolstering their own security against perceived threats. Furthermore, Western and other powers have provided political backing to dictators across the region, as well as material and logistical support to help them oppress their own people. The new realities, however, call for revisiting this conventional wisdom. And, when we examine the alternatives, Arab democracy may not be that bad for Western interests after all.

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If by security, the West means protecting its people from threats of violent extremism, then a democratic Arab world that is committed to ending injustice and marginalization is the better alternative; repression, renditions and abuse by despotic regimes have actually exacerbated the problem of extremism, by providing it with ideal breeding grounds. If by oil, what is meant is its free flow at reasonable prices, and not the ability to influence how its proceeds are spent, then a democratic Middle East is the one without burning oil wells, blown up pipelines, and sudden price hikes caused by instability and wars. If protecting the interests of Israel means ensuring that it can enjoy peace like any other State, as opposed to providing unquestioning support for its colonialist and expansionist agenda, then Arab democracies are more capable of upholding that peace. For young Arabs, democracy does not come at the expense of social justice and personal freedom. It does not exclude national liberation. Opening up to the world does not mean you cant be proud of your cultural identity. The youth of today are our partners of tomorrow. They will be looking to us to see how we act in the near future. How we support their aspirations for a promising equitable future, how we uphold human rights and moral values, how we vote on Palestinian statehood, how we defend political freedoms and how we empower and support Arab women. And they will hold us accountable. Ladies and Gentlemen, Arabs have made their choice. They are determined to construct a better world. It probably wont be a replica of a Western style liberal democracy. But if the West can live with such a vision, great partnerships can be forged. As Arabs reinvent themselves, their partners will have to re-evaluate their past practices and rethink their approach to the region. They need to resist the temptation to shape the other unto their image. And they have to accept the right of the other to disagree. They need to reconcile with the Newer Middle East. The Arab world is ready for change. Are we? Thank you.

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