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PROSPECTS
Your tool for
handicapping
the Kentucky Derby,
Preakness, and
Belmont Stakes
Previews of 40 of the most
likely contenders
Steve Haskins comments
and ratings for top horses
Full pedigrees and
Dosage proles
Complete BRIS Past
Performances (PPs)
Average winning
distances
Runners records at the
Triple Crown tracks
Evaluations by Jason Shan-
dler of Triple Crown Talk
Statistical review of 60+
other possible Triple Crown
entrants
2
2011 TRI PLE CROWN PROSPECTS
See who the pedigree experts predict to win.
Check out the Pedigree Proles from
The Blood-Horse. Coming soon!
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION ....................................................3
GLOSSARY ..........................................................3
ALBERGATTI ........................................................5
ALTERNATION ......................................................6
ANTHONYS CROSS ...............................................7
ASTROLOGY ........................................................8
AWESOME PATRIOT ...............................................9
BEAMER ........................................................... 10
BOWMANS CAUSEWAY ........................................ 11
BRETHREN ........................................................ 12
CALEBS POSSE .................................................. 13
CASPERS TOUCH................................................ 14
CLUBHOUSE RIDE ............................................... 15
CROSSBOW ....................................................... 16
DIALED IN ......................................................... 17
ELITE ALEX ........................................................ 18
GOURMET DINNER .............................................. 19
JAYCITO ........................................................... 20
J PS GUSTO ...................................................... 21
JUSTIN PHILLIP .................................................. 22
MACHEN ........................................................... 23
MAJESTIC HARBOR ............................................. 24
MANICERO ........................................................ 25
MUCHO MACHO MAN ........................................... 26
NACHO BUSINESS ............................................... 27
PREMIER PEGASUS ............................................. 28
RIVETING REASON .............................................. 29
ROGUE ROMANCE ............................................... 30
RUNFLATOUT ..................................................... 31
SANTIVA ........................................................... 32
SHACKLEFORD ................................................... 33
SILVER MEDALLION ............................................. 34
SOLDAT ............................................................ 35
STAY THIRSTY .................................................... 36
SWAY AWAY ....................................................... 37
SWEET DUCKY ................................................... 38
THE FACTOR ...................................................... 39
TOBYS CORNER ................................................. 40
TO HONOR AND SERVE ......................................... 41
UNCLE MO ......................................................... 42
WILKINSON ....................................................... 43
WILLCOX INN ..................................................... 44
BRISNET.COM (Advertisement) ................................ 45
OTHER CONTENDERS ........................................... 46
KENTUCKY DERBY HISTORY .................................. 49
PREAKNESS STAKES HISTORY ............................... 50
BELMONT STAKES HISTORY .................................. 51
CHURCHILL DOWNS TRACK INFORMATION ................ 52
PIMLICO TRACK INFORMATION .............................. 53
BELMONT TRACK INFORMATION ............................ 54
Steve HASKIN is an award-winning Turf writer
renowned for his Kentucky Derby commentary. He has been
a senior correspondent at The Blood-Horse since 1998. When
he decided earlier in the year to list the top 60 or 70 3-year-
olds in alphabetical order, as sort of a guide leading up to his
Derby Dozen and Derby Trail columns featured in the
magazine and on BloodHorse.com, he felt assigning a rating
to each horse would be more interesting. He used a scale of
1-10, based on several factors, including performance, pedi-
gree, and how impressive the horses races looked visually.
HORSES I NDEXED BY HASKI N S NUMERI CAL RATI NG
UNCLE MO ................... 9
TO HONOR AND SERVE ... 8
BRETHREN ................7.5
DIALED IN .................7.5
ASTROLOGY ................ 7
CASPERS TOUCH.......... 7
ELITE ALEX .................. 7
JAYCITO ..................... 7
MACHEN ..................... 7
MUCHO MACHO MAN ..... 7
ROGUE ROMANCE ......... 7
SANTIVA ..................... 7
SOLDAT ...................... 7
STAY THIRSTY .............. 7
ANTHONYS CROSS .....6.5
J PS GUSTO ..............6.5
MAJESTIC HARBOR .....6.5
NACHO BUSINESS .......6.5
SHACKLEFORD ...........6.5
TOBYS CORNER .........6.5
ALTERNATION .............. 6
AWESOME PATRIOT ....... 6
BOWMANS CAUSEWAY .. 6
GOURMET DINNER ........ 6
MANICERO .................. 6
SWEET DUCKY ............. 6
WILKINSON ................. 6
ALBERGATTI ..............5.5
CLUBHOUSE RIDE .......5.5
RIVETING REASON ......5.5
RUNFLATOUT .............5.5
SILVER MEDALLION .....5.5
THE FACTOR ..............5.5
CROSSBOW ................. 5
JUSTIN PHILLIP ............ 5
PREMIER PEGASUS ....... 5
WILLCOX INN ............... 5
BEAMER ...................4.5
CALEBS POSSE ..........4.5
SWAY AWAY ...............4.5
Jason SHANDLER has been a staff writer at
The Blood-Horse since 2007, but hes been a sportswriter
for 11 years. Before moving to Lexington, he worked at
the Norristown Times-Herald outside Philadelphia. He is
featured weekly on the BloodHorse.com video That Handi-
capping Show and is the author of the blogs Triple Crown
Talk and Breeders Cup Chat. Shandlers work also has
been featured on ESPN.com and NTRA.com.
HORSES I NDEXED BY SHANDLER S OPI NI ON
Best of the Best
UNCLE MO
Intriguing Contender
ASTROLOGY
AWESOME PATRIOT
BOWMANS CAUSEWAY
BRETHREN
CASPERS TOUCH
DIALED IN
ELITE ALEX
JAYCITO
JUSTIN PHILLIP
SANTIVA
SHACKLEFORD
SOLDAT
STAY THIRSTY
TOBYS CORNER
TO HONOR AND SERVE
WILKINSON
Modest Threat
ALBERGATTI
ALTERNATION
ANTHONYS CROSS
CROSSBOW
MACHEN
MUCHO MACHO MAN
NACHO BUSINESS
PREMIER PEGASUS
ROGUE ROMANCE
SWAY AWAY
SWEET DUCKY
THE FACTOR
Questionable
BEAMER
CALEBS POSSE
CLUBHOUSE RIDE
GOURMET DINNER
J PS GUSTO
MANICERO
RIVETING REASON
MAJESTIC HARBOR
RUNFLATOUT
SILVER MEDALLION
WILLCOX INN
COVER PHOTO BY CHAD B. HARMON
3
2011 TRI PLE CROWN PROSPECTS
See who the pedigree experts predict to win.
Check out the Pedigree Proles from
The Blood-Horse. Coming soon!
Introduction Glossary
S
electing the Kentucky Derby winner from a field of 18 or 20 is
hard enough; figuring out which horses are likely to make it to the
Triple Crown trail is even more daunting. Even Thoroughbred enthu-
siasts who carefully follow juvenile racing will find that springtime
introduces a slew of new potential runners. Blood-Horse Publications
Triple Crown Prospects special report is an early-season guide to the
most promising sophomores that are likely to have an impact in the
Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes.
The backbone of this report is an introduction to 40 top 3-year-olds
that appear to be pointed toward one of the American classic races.
Steve Haskin of Derby Dozen and Hangin with Haskin fame re-
views each contenders chances and assigns his own 1 to 10 rating
where 10 is Steves prediction that the horse not only will run but also
be in contention down the stretch.
Jason Shandler, author of Triple Crown Talkalso known for his
no-nonsense persona on That Handicapping Showserves as a
counterpoint to Steve. Jason provides his own rating and commentary
on each sophomore runner.
Profile pages include a wealth of data. Most of the statistics are
familiar, but a short review might be helpful. The statistical box in-
cludes graded earnings, which become important as many colts and
fillies vie for limited spots in the Derby starting gates. The Experi-
mental Free Handicap is explained in detail in the glossary in right
column on this page. The pedigree box includes official bloodlines
information and foal data provided by The Jockey Club Information
Systems equineline.com reports service, while a BRISnet.com past-
performances chart (PPs) summarizes the subject horses race ca-
reer to date.
Other contenders for the Triple Crown are included in shorter sta-
tistical overviews starting on page 46. Shown in this section are race
records and best level won (GSW is a graded stakes win, GSP is graded
stakes-placed, SW is a stakes win, and SP is stakes-placed), the aver-
age winning distance (AWD) and the longest distance the horse has
won, and the Dosage profile, which is also explained in the glossary.
One-page reviews of past winners of the Derby, Preakness, and Bel-
mont provide some perspective, and brief histories of the host tracks
Churchill Downs, Pimlico, and Belmont Parkround out the Triple
Crown preview.
Dosage: A technique for classifying Thoroughbred pedigrees
by type based on aptitudinal characteristics inherited from se-
lected sires, called chefs-de-race. The degree of inheritance
attributed to each of these chefs was essentially constant in
all pedigrees, the absolute value (or Dosage figure) varying from
sire to sire. Chefs, chosen on the basis of their observable pre-
potence for type, are assigned to one or two of five aptitudinal
groups (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, and Professional)
covering the spectrum (from left to right as you read the dosage
profile) of speed to endurance. The assignments are made to
reflect the traits that these stallions predictably and consistently
transmit to their offspring. Only one winner of the Kentucky
Derby since 1940 (Strike the Gold), and only three winners of
the Belmont Stakes over the same time frame (Damascus, Con-
quistador Cielo, Creme Fraiche) have had a DI above 4.00. This
is in direct contrast to stakes winners in general, of which about
one-quarter to one-third have a DI greater than 4.00 and for
which the average DI is slightly above 4.00.
Experimental Free Handicap: The Experimental Free Handi-
cap, published annually by The Jockey Club since 1935, is a
weight-based assessment of the previous years leading 2-year-
olds, with the weights compiled for a hypothetical race at 1
1
16
miles on dirt. This years weighting committee of racing sec-
retaries was composed of Ben Huffman of Churchill Downs,
P.J. Campo of the New York Racing Association, and Thomas
S. Robbins of the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club. The committee
weighted a total of 99 males and 92 fillies. Eligible for weighting
were all 2-year-olds of 2010 that finished among the top four in
graded or listed stakes races run in the continental United States.
Listed stakes in 2010 were those with a value of $75,000 or more
available to all starters, and no restrictions other than age or sex.
The 128 pounds assigned to Uncle Mo for the 2011 Experimental
Free Handicap is two pounds above the standard impost for top
Experimental colts, including last years co-high weights Lookin
At Lucky and Vale of York. It is the highest assignment since
Favorite Trick received 128 pounds in 1997.
Furlong: one-eighth of a mile
TrueNicks: Compatibility of stallions from one male line
with mares from other sire lines has shaped the breed since the
Eclipse/Herod cross of the late 18th century. Called nicks, these
successful crosses have made a profound impact on the develop-
ment of the Thoroughbred. TrueNicks is a nick rating that uti-
lizes the database of The Jockey Club the worlds most com-
plete records of Thoroughbreds and their performanceto pro-
duce a sophisticated rating based on all foals for a given cross. A
TrueNicks rating is derived from two statistical elements: a Sire
Improvement Index (SII) and a Broodmare Sire Improvement
Index (BSII). Both of them compare the percentage of progeny
stakes winners to starters. An SII of 2.0 indicates the sire/sire line
has twice the percentage of stakes winners out of mares by the
broodmare sire/sire line as he does when bred to all other mares.
A BSII of 3.0 indicates the percentage of stakes winners out of
a stallions daughters when bred to the chosen sire/sire line is
3.0 times as high as the percentage of stakes winners produced
by the same mares when bred to all other studs. The TrueNicks
rating is then calculated by multiplying the SII by the BSII, effec-
tively recognizing the real opportunity and performance of the
given cross. A test group of more than 100,000 horses of racing
age revealed the following: While only 13% of the entire Thor-
oughbred population earn A ratings (A to A++), 37% of the
stakes winners rate as As; and horses rated B or better (B to
A++) represent just 30% of the entire population, yet 3 out of 4
(77%) stakes winners rate B or better.
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For a complete list of 2011 Triple Crown Nominations, go to
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/triple-crown-mania/nominations
Triple Crown Mania
4
2011 TRI PLE CROWN PROSPECTS
See who the pedigree experts predict to win.
Check out the Pedigree Proles from
The Blood-Horse. Coming soon!
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