Social Inclusiveness in Asias Emerging Middle Income Countries Jakarta, Indonesia , 13 September 2011

Millennium Development Goals in Asian Middle Income Countries

Performance, Prospects and Problems
Shiladitya Chatterjee Regional Advisor on the Millennium Development Goals, Asian Development Bank

Vivian Francisco Strategy and Policy Officer Asian Development Bank

Performance and Prospects

22

MICs in Asia and the Pacific*

Pr ai a D%r w eCp GP g t t o h 21 00 Ppl to ou i n a 21 GP 00 D ( 0010 20= ; 0 mi n S ilo U$ l ) Nm r fpo u b o or e (00 ' 0) * P - rs r c i e is ( 00 7 20- ) 0 Cs ( 08 r i 20is 21) 00

3 6, 4 , 1 9 6 5
Am ia r e n Bua ht n F Is n s iji la d Gog er ia In ia d In o eia d ns K ib t ir ai Lo D a PR Mr h ll Is n s as a la d M r ns ,FdS . ico eia e. t s Mno o glia Pk t n aisa P p aNw u e a u e Gina P ilip ins h pe Sm ao a Slo o Is n s o m la d n Si L na r ak T o- et im Lse r T na og T r m isa uk e t n n T v lu ua Ubk t n z eisa Vn au a ut V tNm ie a Aeb ija zr a n Cin ha Ir nIs m Rp a , la ic e. Kz k sa aaht n Mla s a yia Mld e a ivs P la a u Rs ia Fdr t n us n eeaio Ta n h ila d Tr e uky 39 , 0 0 78 0 84 5 41 , 9 2 1 1, 6 , 4 4 2 4 22 1 3, 7 5 10 0 63 , 6 4 6 3 11 1 20 , 1 7 14 5 8, 3 7 68 , 8 8 9, 1 3 7 6 19 7 56 3 2, 1 0 0 4 17 , 1 1 14 0 57 , 7 1 1 0 2, 9 7 4 7 26 4 8, 2 9 9 0 83 , 4 9 1 5, 4 , 4 6 3 1 7, 7 5 8 0 1, 5 5 3 7 2, 1 7 4 9 34 1 2 1 10 6 4, 7 3 6, 3 8 9 1 7, 0 5 5 7

6 6, 2 , 3 7 1 6
45 , 3 0 91 6 16 , 6 8 50 , 9 3 1 0, 9 , 7 8 0 5 24 7 7, 1 3 7 6 33 , 0 4 12 3 27 2 22 , 6 1 13 6 2, 4 9 50 , 4 1 19 1 2, 7 0 39 2 66 1 2, 7 6 4 9 43 3 25 1 91 , 6 9 2, 4 6 7 5 34 9 6, 0 3 6 3 2, 5 1 2 3 3 8, 6 , 1 9 2 4 3, 0 9 3 0 16 4 4, 3 9 17 , 2 0 17 2 40 1 1, 2 3 17 8 8, 2 4 38 0 8, 5 9

82 2 6, 8 4

7 . 7
1. 1 8 6 . 3 0 . 8 7 . 7 5 . 7 3 . 7 0 . 5 4 . 8 0 . 9 0 . 5 5 . 2 2 . 7 (.) 0 6 2 . 9 4 . 3 (.) 1 4 4 . 1 (.) 1 1 0 . 9 1. 4 0 0 . 0 4 . 7 0 . 6 6 . 4 1. 6 3 9 . 8 4 . 3 9 . 7 3 . 6 5 . 1 0 . 7 7 . 6 4 . 0 3 . 8

6 . 5
(.) 2 3 4 . 6 (.) 1 5 1 . 1 6 . 5 4 . 4 (.) 1 5 5 . 8 (.) 2 7 (.) 0 8 3 . 4 1 . 0 4 . 3 2 . 5 0 . 2 1 . 9 5 . 1 7 . 1 0 . 9 6 . 8 0 . 0 6 . 8 1 . 7 4 . 8 7 . 1 9 . 1 0 . 7 2 . 0 1 . 7 1 . 4 (.) 2 6 0 . 6 2 . 1 0 . 4

61 2 55 0 0, 3 7 5, 2 7 2 2 28 , 1 1 3 5 65 0 4, 3 1 6 7 2, 7 1 6 1

13 , 7 4 48 3

1, 6 2 3 8

9 3 25 8 1, 0 5 2 7 11 5 5 25 2 23 7 25 , 9 0

* World Bank Classifications based on 2010 data which include countries with GNI per capita between 1,006-21,275 US$) ** Based on latest poverty incidence applied to 2010 population.

MDG Performance of MICs

The MICs drive the overall MDG progress in AsiaPacific
MD Prog G ressof MICsbyS ubreg ions Primary completion rate Underweight children Safe drinking water
l l l l u l l n

Maternal mortality

Primary enrolment

Gender Secondary

Under-5 mortality

Income Poverty

Gender primary

AsiaPa cific Middle Incom Countries e Excluding China and India E st a Northea Asia a nd st Northa Centra Asia nd l S outha S nd outhwest Asia S outheast Asia T Pa he cific
l

l l l l n n l

n n l l l n l

l l u

u u u

l l l l

l l l l l l l l

l l l l l u l

n n n u n n u n

n n n l n n n n

l l l

l l l l

l l l l

u u l n u

l l l u Clos e

l l l l

l l l l

On tra k c

La g g ing

Source: Authors calculations based on MDG data from UNESCAP Statistics Division.

Basic sanitation
n n u n u n l n

Gender tertiary

HIV prevalence

TB incidence

Performance of MICs by proportion of indicators on track including close to target Click to edit Master text styles
Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level

Worst Performing Indicators

(by % of MICs Off track)
Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level

Problems and Issues

Sub-region Specific Issues

East and Northeast Asia Access to basic sanitation Income poverty North and Central Asia Child mortality Maternal mortality Income poverty Underweight children S outh and S outhwest Asia Child amortality Maternal mortality Access to basic sanitation S outheast Asia Maternal mortality Child mortality Primary completion rate Access to safe drinking water Access to basic sanitation Primary completion rate Gender parity in tertiary education

Child mortality

The Pacific

Primary completion rate Gender parity in primary education Child mortality Maternal mortality Access to safe drinking water Access to basic sanitation

General issues facing MICs

Lack of inclusive growth
Rising income inequality Inequality in non-income social outcomes

Rising income inequality in selected MICs

In q a yt e d ins le t dM s e u lit r n s e c e IC C u ty o nr C in -R r l h a ua C in - U b n h a ra In o e ia u a d n s -R r l In o e ia r a d n s -U b n In ia u a d -R r l In ia r a d -U b n Pk t n a is a P ilip in s h p e Si L n a r ak V ta ie n m Pr d e io 1 8 -2 0 91 05 1 8 -2 0 91 06 1 9 -2 0 90 05 1 9 -2 0 90 05 1 9 -2 0 93 04 1 9 -2 0 93 05 2 0 -2 0 01 04 1 8 -2 0 95 06 1 9 -2 0 95 02 1 9 -2 0 92 06 G i C e ie t(% in o ffic n )/a Ana e n u liz d In ia y a F a y a go t r t it l e r in l e r r wh ae 2 .7 4 3 3 .8 5 5 1 6 .5 1 .4 8 6 3 .8 4 2 8 .6 2 .4 6 6 2 .5 9 2 0 3 .7 3 .6 4 6 3 .9 9 3 0 5 .9 2 .5 8 9 3 .4 0 6 0 8 .5 3 .3 4 4 3 .5 7 9 0 3 .8 3 .3 0 9 3 .1 1 8 0 6 .8 4 .0 1 4 4 .0 4 4 0 4 .3 3 .4 5 1 4 .0 1 6 2 0 .3 3 .6 5 8 3 .7 7 7 0 3 .4

a/ Ranges from 0-100 when expressed in percentage terms. Zero means perfect equality and 100 means with perfect inequality. Source: ADB staff estimates using tabulated data from World Bank, POVCALNET.

Inequality in Non-Income MDGs

Child mortality (per 1,000 live births)

nderweight children (% of population aged 0-4 )

Widening disparities in income and health-related MDGs

G i in ic so ine- o nr d t ib t no M Gin ic t r in d e f t r c u t y isr uio f D d ao s
In ic to da r E lie a r Ya er Gi in c e ie t o ffic n L te a r Ya er G i in c e ie t o ffic n

G a 1 Ea ic t e t e ep v r ya dh n e o l : r d ae xr m o et n u g r $ .2 p rd yp v r y 1 5 e a o et 19 97 0 2 .4 6 U d r e h c ilde n ew ig t h r n 19 95 0 9 .2 6 G a 4 R d c c ildmr a y o l : e ue h o t lit U d r mr lity n e-5 ota 19 90 In n mr a fa t ot lity 19 90 G a 5 I po emt r a h a h o l : mr v aen l e lt M ten l mr lit a r a ota y 19 90 0 7 .5 9

20 04 20 05

0 5 .4 2 0 5 .4 4

0 7 .3 8 0 4 .3 3

20 09 20 08

0 8 .3 7 0 6 .3 5

20 08

0 9 .5 3

G a 6 C ma H /AD ,mlaiaa do h rd e s s o l : o b t I I S a r n t e is ae V T in id n e B c ec T pe a n e B r v le c 19 90 19 90 0 0 .4 5 0 3 .5 8 20 08 20 08 0 4 .4 7 0 5 .5 2

Source: Wan, G. and Y. Zhang, 2011. Between Country Disparities in MDGs: The AsiaPacific Region

Other General Issues

Lack of prioritization of expenditures towards MDGs Insufficient taxation Lack of adequate social protection Governance and corruption Insufficient basic infrastructure

Spending on Education and Health in MICs is Insufficient

14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Average High income iddle income income M Low World M ICs Asia -Pacific

Health expenditure, total (% of GDP)

2000 2009

Public spending on education, total (% of GDP)

Source: Authors calculations using data from World Bank, World Development Indicators online database.

Social Protection Coverage in MICs is Poor

Jp aa n Ke oa r Kg s n y yt r za M gi o oa nl U eitn z ka b s CoI l ns oks d a Ka s n ak t z ha A ra n z bj e ia SLn r ak i a Id ni a Ci a h n Nr au u Vt a i N e m AA S I Ma i aya l s A ei r n ma Msa I l ns a hl s d r l a I dns noea i B gds al e na h Ti itn a s jk a Mde ai s lv Tvu ul a P lpi e h p s ii n C bd a oi m a Na el p LoD aPR B tn ha u F Il ns ii s d j a V uu aa nt Tn og a P i tn as ka P u N Gna a a e ue p w i 0 0 . 2 0 . 4 0 . 6 0 . 8 1

Source: Asian Development Bank, Social Protection Index for Committed Poverty Reduction, 2008.

Tax Effort in MICs is Inadequate

Tax revenue (% of GDP)
12

10

Source: Authors calculations using data from World Bank, World Development Indicators online database.

Governance and Corruption

MICs Percentile Rankings

Government effectiveness Corruption control

Source: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators database.

Basic Infrastructure
Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level

Access to Infrastructure
R dc si 2 5 7 o a e n0 / a cs 00 K opvdod e M f ae r a pr 1, 0 pros 0 0e n 0 s E c i iy c si l t c Ae n er t c s 2 89 0/ 00 E c i i a na ( ) let fct r t % r io e

A hn t n f ai a g s A ei r n ma A r aa z bi n e j Bnl ds ag eh a Bu n ht a B ni r e u Cm d ab i oa Ci a h n D Kr a P o R e Es T o at i r m Fi i j G ri eg o a Id ni a I dns noei a Kzksa aaht n Kr ysa y zt n g Lo D a PR Ml yi a s a a Mr ns FdS .o i oei e. t f c a s Mnoa ogl i M na y m a r Npl ea Pk t n ai a s Ppa e G na au Nw u e i Pii p e h pi s l n Sl m I l ns o o s d o n a S Lna r ak i Taad hi n l Tna og Tr m i t n u e sa k n U ei t n z k a b s Vna aut u V tNm i a e

4 . 9 2. 2 0 3. 4 9 1 . 5 8. 1 1 1 . 8 1. 3 4

1. 5 6

4. 1 0 9. 9 7 2. 4 0 9. 9 4 2. 6 0 2. 2 0

2. 1 1 1. 7 8 1. 4 9 9 . 9 5. 4 5 3. 4 0 6 . 7 2. 9 0 3 . 9 7 . 0 0 . 7 3 . 7 1. 0 0 1 . 3 2 . 4 0 . 8 4. 1 0 1. 8 6 4. 3 3 2. 8 8 1. 3 5 8 . 9

6. 6 3 6. 4 5

5. 5 0 9. 9 4 6. 7 0 1. 3 0 4. 3 6 6. 2 4 8. 9 7 7. 6 6 9. 9 3

9. 7 6

Access to Infrastructure

Electr Road access in 2005/ 07 2

KM of paved road per Electrifi 10,000 persons Developing Asia 12.9 7 M ICs in Asia and the Pacific 13.7 8 OECD 211.7 9 Latin America 14.3 9

Sources: WB, World Development Indicators Online database; Int

Conclusions
The Asia-Pacific MICs have done well to reduce extreme poverty but they still have a long way to go to achieve MDG targets relating to hunger, health and sanitation. Despite fairly good growth performance, they are missing out the opportunity to expand effort on basic services by not taxing enough and not spending enough on social services. They also have to improve service delivery by improving quality of public services; tackling corruption; and expanding basic infrastructure.

Thank You