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PUBLIC POLICY UPDATE September 23, 2011 WASHINGTON UPDATE Highlights from the Senate FY2012 State, Foreign

Operations Bill; More Analysis to Come The Senate FY2012 State, Foreign Operations bill and committee report are now available online on the GPO website: the bill (S. 1601), the report (Report 112-85). Note that an amendment from Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) that was passed as part of the Managers Package moved $2.5 million from International Organizations and Programs to Global Health and Child Survival for programs for The Office of Displaced Children and Orphans Fund. Our table reflects that shift, as do the documents linked above. Note also that our table includes all Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) funding in the amounts listed. See the comments in Excel in the relevant cells in the spreadsheet. Some quick highlights: USAID Operating Expenses: 38 percent ($371 million) over House bill, about flat from FY2011 and FY2010 Global Health: 11 percent ($786 million) over House bill, close to flat from FY2011 and FY2010 Development Assistance: 23 percent ($482 million) over House, flat from FY2010 and FY2011 Intl Disaster Assistance: 32 percent ($242 million) over House, 16 percent ($137 million) over FY2011 (less than FY2010, but that was a spike because of Haiti) Migration and Refugee Assistance: 20 percent ($303 million) over House, 7 percent ($113 million) over FY2011 MCC: same as House, flat from FY2011, 19 percent ($207 million) under FY2010 Emergency Refugee and Migration Assistance: zeroed out as inefficient Intl Orgs and Programs: (note: InterAction does not track the subaccounts compared to previous years, only the main accounts) o Center for Human Settlements (UN Habitat): $1.9 million o International Conservation Programs: $7.9 million o International Panel on Climate Change/UN Framework on Climate Change: $11 million o OAS Fund for Strengthening Democracy: $4 million o UN Childrens Fund: $129.5 million o UN Democracy Fund: $4.755 million o UN Development Program: $80 million o UN Environment Program: $7.7 million o UN. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: $3 million o UN Women (UNIFEM): $7.5 million o UN Population Fund: $40 million We will provide further analysis in the coming days.

HEARING SUMMARIES U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan and Iraq Senate Armed Service Committee September 22, 2011 Witnesses: Leon Panetta, Secretary of Defense Admiral Michael G. Mullen, U.S. Navy, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Opening Statements: Chair Carl Levin (D-MI) We have seized the initiative in key areas, including Taliban strongholds in the south. Taliban reduced to suicide attacks and roadside bombings. Afghan security forces should assume responsibility for protecting all Afghans by 2014, as our troop drawdown continues. Evidence linking Haqqani network to the Pakistani government. Repeatedly pressed Secretary of State Clinton to add the Haqqani group to the State Departments list of terrorist organizations. U.S. must remain engaged and must learn lessons from Soviet troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. Ranking Member John McCain (R-AZ) Deep concerns about aggressive drawdown from Afghanistan and complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. At least 10,000 troops need to remain in Iraq to guarantee stability; very concerned to hear unconfirmed reports about the administration proposing as few as 3,000 troops on the ground. Success on the ground in Afghanistan is finally in reach; we should be solidifying, yet the presidents plans will only make the mission more risky. Cutting off aid to Pakistan will only worsen the situation. Strategy here will have larger impact upon our national security than anywhere else in the world. Leon Panetta, Secretary of Defense Defense budget$450 billion in savings need to be made over the next 10 years. No specific decisions made yet. Must maintain the most dominant military in the world. Involves hard decisions, and inevitably taking on greater risk. Must avoid hollowing out the force at all costs. Efficiencies, overhead duplications, procurement, greater competition in contracting, compensation. Decade of warDepartment of Defense (DoD) budget has more than doubled. We now need to prevent wars, but fight and win them if we have to. Caution strongly against further cuts to DoDwe do not have to make the choice between fiscal security and national security. Iraqfocus on ending the war in a responsible way. Allow Iraq to become a secure, sovereign, self-reliant nation. 2

Fewer than 50,000 troops remain there; were planning to draw down all combat troops in Iraq by the end of the year. Iraqi leadership interested in ongoing training relationship with the U.S. Afghanistanattempt to establish conditions in which Afghanistan can secure entirety of policing operations by 2014. Afghan national security forces increasingly capable. We have made significant progress with regard to our primary mission of disrupting and ultimately defeating al-Qaeda. The greater reliance on headline-grabbing attacks from al-Qaeda denotes a shift of momentum in our favor. Eastern Afghanistan topography gives insurgents advantages they have lost elsewherewe cannot allow them a safe haven, and must also pressure the Pakistanis to confront the issue.

Admiral Michael G. Mullen, U.S. Navy, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Afghanistansecurity situation is steadily improving, and we are meeting our military and strategic objectives. Recent acts of violence from al-Qaeda aim to play on the fears of a traumatized people, and do not represent a sea change in the odds of military success. Poor governance and corruption is the major challenge undermining our efforts delegitimizes institutions to whom we will delegate authority. Credible evidence that Haqqani network was behind the bomb at the InterContinental Hotel in Kabul, and that Palestinian intelligence authority played a supporting role in the recent attack on the U.S. embassy. A flawed and difficult relationship with Pakistan is better than no relationship at all. Disagrees that Pakistan has drifted away further than before. Questioning: Chair Carl Levin (D-MI) 1. What options are available to stop these terrorist attacks if the Pakistanis will not act to prevent them? Panetta Put as much pressure on Pakistan as possible to deal with the issue on their sidehave sent a clear message in recent meetings with officials. Unhelpful to describe what they would look like operationally. 2. What is your assessment of the NATO mission to build Afghan forces capable of assuming a role in the 2014 timetable set? Mullen Significant improvements have been madeintensive literacy training has been put in place. Between 25,000-30,000 military police are undergoing training. 3. General Raymond Odierno publicly cautioned against creating the impression that there is still a significant troop presence in Iraq after our timetabled withdrawal date. Do you agree? Mullen We need to be very careful. Negotiations currently afoot to establish exactly what assistance the Afghans will require.

Ranking Member John McCain (R-AZ) 1. The reason for the significant delay in the outcome of these negotiations is that the Iraqis are waiting for our assessment of the situation. This cannot be based solely on the Iraqi needs, because we need to establish what our national security needs are. Should we stay in northern Iraq? Mullen Very contentious region. Security posture in that area has to be such that it does not spark a sudden eruption of violence. Exact composition of that presence will be the product of these negotiations. Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) 1. There is a notion circulating that we will have no presence in Afghanistan after the 2014 handover. Is this correct? Mullen The model we support is not unlike that which we are currently negotiating with Iraq. Clear message needs to be sent to Pakistan that we will not disappear; if we abandon the region, we will be forced to return as the situation would deteriorate drastically. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) 1. With regard to the DoD budget cuts, how exactly will you avoid a hollowing of forces? Panetta The key is not to take the easy way out of blanket cuts across the board, i.e. cutting everything by a certain percentage. Instead, must look at key areas and make tough decisions on saving. Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) 1. Unbridled presidential discretion with regard to the use of military power was used in responding to Libya, partly due to the vague definition of conflict that allows the executive to go over the heads of Congress. Does this trend concern you? What should the future model be for defining existential threats, and the application of military support? Mullen The fight against terrorism is not just in one country but is a truly transnational threat; complicates the practice of application of military engagement. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) 1. You previously articulated the estimate of a $450 billion cut to the DoD budget over the next 10 years, but I had heard potential cuts suggested of up to $850 billion. Is that an acceptable reduction in spending? Mullen Absolutely notnot just the amount, but also how it is executed.

Full committee hearing on the nominations of Robert Mandell to be ambassador to Luxembourg; Thomas Charles Krajeski to be ambassador to the Kingdom of Bahrain, and Dan Mozena to be ambassador to the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh Senate Foreign Relations Committee

September 21, 2011


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Witnesses: Robert A. Mandell, to be ambassador to Luxembourg Thomas Charles Krajeski, to be ambassador to the Kingdom of Bahrain Dan W. Mozena, to be ambassador to the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh Michael A. Hammer, to be assistant secretary of state for public affairs

Opening Statements: Robert Mandell Luxembourg was a founding member of North America Trade Organization, United Nations, European Union: o Would continue the strong, productive the relationship U.S. has with Luxembourg. o The U.S. gained Luxembourgs goodwill by liberating it after World War II. o Should increase American exports to Europe. Financial services make up 25 percent Luxembourgs gross domestic product (GDP): o Luxembourg signed an agreement to stop financing terrorism/moneylaundering. o Clarity of banking strategy will be first priority as ambassador. o Other priorities will be peace, security, prosperity, medical diagnostics and healthcare, and encouraging new technologies. Thomas Krajeski The U.S. and Bahrain have a long history of cooperation and partnership: o If confirmed, will work with Bahrain to respond to external threats to security. Deeply concerned about increased confrontation during protests in February and March of this year: o Serious human rights abuses; o Encourage and support reform and not condone repression in Bahrain; o King Hamad fostered a month-long national dialogue; o The Independent Commission of Inquiry, led by internationally recognized legal experts, was also investigating reports of civil and human rights violations. Dan Mozena Plan to visit all 64 districts in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has demonstrated a moderate, secular, democratic alternative to violent extremism: o Improved relations with India; o Worlds largest contributor to international peacekeeping; o Promotes democracy and human rights, skilled in disaster preparedness, and stabilizes U.S. interest; o Economic growth has reduced poverty; o Actively combats terrorism. Weaknesses: o Democratic institutions are weak; o Political parties are polarized; o Unclear intentions toward civil society; o Threatened by rising sea levels caused by climate change. 5

Bangladesh can be a beneficiary of Obamas three initiatives: o Feed the Future; o Global Health Initiative; o Global Climate Change.

Michael Hamner Approach: echo Senator Clintons vision: How to use smart power to do better? Was previously principal deputy assistant secretary in the Public Affairs Bureau. Use social media as tool to reach more people. U.S. should not leave it to others to shape policy: o Rapid response, constant engagement; o Reach out to diaspora communities to promote who we are and universal beliefs: freedom of speech, press. Public Affairs Bureau launched nine foreign language Twitter feeds. State Department Live!new interactive online video briefing platform: o Has allowed hundreds of foreign journalists to speak with policymakers. Questioning: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) (presided over hearing) 1. Bahrain shares U.S. security interests, how does the U.S. respond to it being strongly criticized? Krajeski o King Hamads first effort was to open the government into a constitutional monarchy. This made the events of this year even more shocking. o U.S. will continue to criticize, encourage efforts to recover, and watch government response to the release of reports on the crisis. 2. Talk about the strength of relationship between U.S. military presence and how Bahrains people feel about U.S. Navys Fifth Fleet in their country. Krajeski o Both governments recognize the importance of this relationship as mutually valuable. The base has been there since 1947longest standing relationship. 3. Mentioned that financial services were a large part of Luxembourgs GDPwhat struggles has the country faced as the result of the Eurozone crisis? Mandell o 25 percent of GDP: half of workers are in financial services sector. o Eurozone issues has dampened market. o Health technologies, satellite systems, Cargolux sectors have increased. o $3 billion order in Cargolux. 4. In terms of combating the finance of terror, how close are Luxembourg and U.S. to an agreement? Mandell o Bank secrecy laws issue resolved by OECD to make sure laws are transparent. o Protocol allows U.S. trade department to look at banks. 5. Controversy of Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus removed from position at Grameen Bankwas this a political move?

Mozena o The focus is now to ensure bank philosophy in promoting welfare of women of Bangladesh continues to play leadership role. o Yunus was older than mandatory retirement age, which is why he resigned. 6. War crimes aimed at Bangladeshs split from Pakistan, 3 million killed, 10 million displaced, not many arrested. Are the trials politicized? Mozena o U.S. supports accountability in transparency. o Bangladesh has reached out for assistance. o Ambassador-at-large Steven Rapp provided long list of suggestions consistent with international standards. 7. Bangladesh is a prime candidate for one of Obamas forward-thinking policies: talk about the climate change opportunity. Mozena o Working with Bangladeshi people to create rice that grows in increasingly saline water. o Create embankments to elevate fields. o Clean and efficient cook-stoves reduce fuel consumption.. 8. How effectively has the State Department increased new media tools? Hamner o Has increased to nine foreign language Twitter feeds to use social media to connect to more diverse audiences. o State Live! allows officials to be interviewed by foreign press. 9. Recent article in the New York Times discussed an interchange with the Taliban on law on a blog. Is the State Department working with the military on these matters? Hamner o Yes: the State Department works on these issues in the interagency process. o Secretary Clinton, in a speech at the John Jay College Center on Terrorism, encouraged Defense Department to work with State. 10. How can the United States continue to engage youth in the role they played in the Arab Spring? Hamner o The State Department is very focused on youth. o Secretary Clinton has appointed a Youth Ambassador. o Social media is critical. o Town halls with youthful audiences abroad. o State Live! often has younger, less experienced journalists. 11. How will the United States work with countries diasporas? Hamner o Haitian diaspora communicates what the U.S. is doing. o Foster tighter bonds with Tunisian diaspora in New York this week.

Promoting Peace? Reexamining U.S. Aid to the Palestinian Authority, Part II House Foreign Affairs Committee September 14, 2011 Witnesses:
Elliott Abrams, Council on Foreign Relations 7

James Phillips, The Heritage Foundation Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracies David Makovsky, The Washington Institute

Opening Statements: Chair Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL)


We stand at a critical juncture in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Palestinians intend to seek UN recognition and are making no effort to seriously negotiate with Israel. The administration has responded slowly, but has finally announced that the U.S. will veto any related Security Council resolution. Our slow response has allowed the Palestinians to mobilize support, and thus they will now most likely go to the General Assembly. The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) has aligned with Hamas. The stated objective of Hamas is the elimination of Israel and of all its Jewish citizens. $2.5 billion in aid given over the past five years to the Palestinians has reinforced and rewarded their bad behavior.

Ranking Member Howard Berman (D-CA)


Mahmoud Abbas has chosen to scorn the negotiation table in favor of unilateral action at the UN. Counter to U.S. requests and previous Palestinian commitments; Likely to have disastrous consequences; General Assembly recognition of Palestinian state would do nothing positive for the Palestinian people, and is in fact likely to stoke tensions. U.S. cannot shrink from previous commitments. Under H.R. 268, the House affirms that Palestinian efforts to pursue recognition of statehood prior to agreement with Israel will have serious implications for U.S. aid efforts with the Palestinian Authority.

Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH)


Fundamental disconnect has formed between U.S. aid policy and our objectives. Tremendous gains made on the ground in Ramallah, with unprecedented economic growth. Current Palestinian leadership too willing to sacrifice achievements of PM Fayyads state-building efforts for unilateral dramatics. U.S. aid should not be an ever-flowing stream of taxpayers money, particularly under current economic conditions. If Palestinians continue on their current path, the question is not what portion of aid will be cut, but what, if any, will remain.

Elliott Abrams
Across-the-board cuts would be negative; some of these aid programs are in our interest. Must distinguish between Palestinian Authority (PA), led by Fayyad, and the PLO, who are going to the UN. Entire PA should not be blamed, and indeed the collapse of the PA would be negative for both U.S. and Israeli interests. 8

Presidential waiver, started in 1987 and continued by every president since, has allowed the PLO to have an office in Washington, D.C. First step must be to halt this practice immediately.

Dr. Jonathan Schanzer


U.S. aid package needs an overhaul. PA has, in recent years, been lauded for its transparency and accountability; Abbas has sidelined much of Fayyads excellent work. Palestinian Investment Fund (PIF): Created in 2002 as a sovereign fund. Abbas has changed the charter of the PIF, placing it under his full control and purposefully neglecting to have it audited. PA borrows from this fund when it cant pay its bills. U.S. has the right to intervene here, since we set it up; oversight is long overdue. Electricity scampower plant in Gaza PA foots the bills, and Hamas benefits from electricity that allows it pursue terrorist activities. Thus, the U.S. is indirectly funding Hamas operations; violation of U.S. law and must be ceased immediately.

James Phillips
Palestinian rapprochement with Hamas. May 2011 power-sharing agreements; casts doubt on Palestines genuine commitment to negotiations with Israel. Hamas implacably committed to destruction of Israel. Obama administration has bent over backwards to avoid criticizing Palestinians. Obama has failed to halt Palestinian drive for statehood at the UN. U.S. aid is not an entitlement. Should be closely tied to Palestinian efforts for peace. U.S. should declare it will withhold funds to UN agencies engaging with this Palestinian state, similar to policy of George H. W. Bush.

David Makovsky
Cutting aid to the PA completely will lead to its collapse, and would be a poor decision. Total suspension of assistance would only be warranted if the PA took steps towards a Third Intifada. Withholding U.S. aid will undermine those we want to help, and help those we want to undermine. Hamas would gain substantially from reduction in U.S. assistance. There has been real favorable change in recent years thanks to our aid. In 2002, 410 Israelis were killed by suicide bombings from the West Bank. From 2007-2010, Israel suffered only one fatality due to such attacks.

Questioning: Chair Ileana Ros-Lethinen (R-FL)


1. Long-term strategy must be to wean the PA off U.S. aid. How better can we condition our aid to meet our national objectives? 9

Abrams Education is a prime example of where we have not adequately conditioned our aid; weve talked a lot about textbooks, without setting any conditions on the content of those textbookse.g., whether they incite religious hatred. This provides an opportunity to attach more conditions to our bilateral aid. We should look at turning responsibility of helping Palestinians over to the UN High Commission for Refugees.

Ranking Member Howard Berman (D-CA)


1. Is merely closing the PLO office in Washington, D.C., really a proportionate response to such a fundamental breach of the Oslo Accords? We must ensure that there are meaningful consequences for this really dangerous action on the part of the Palestinians. Makovsky Closing the office should be combined with a suspension of high-level meetings with the U.S. for the PLOisolation. The administration named George Mitchell as the Middle East envoy right at the beginning of the term, and so made a clear commitmentas the Palestinians only came to the table for 2.5 weeks since 2008, we will devote our time and energies elsewhere.

Rep. Albio Sires (D-NJ)


1. Are there any honest actors we can deal with in the region? Does corruption still persist in the Palestinian leadership? Abrams Palestinian leadership has always been marked by corruption. No real desire to build a Palestinian state from the bottom up. Fayyad is the only leader who has made a constructive attempt at this. Phillips There was an opportunity for a possible peace settlement, but Arafat did not keep to commitments, and never really delivered on pledges to halt terrorism. Abbas is a protg of Arafat, and has only a limited ability to break with his legacy. Schanzer Ideology of Palestinian nationalism has been about destruction of Israel, not the construction of a Palestinian state. No serious attempt to build a viable state. After the political theatre has passed in New York, Palestinians will wake up and realize nothing has changed. This may create animosity towards PLOcould this be their self-destruction?

Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH)


1. Reports indicate that Tony Blair, representing the Quartet, is seeking a new basis for IsraeliPalestinian negotiations, believing a bid will shift momentum towards talks. What do you think of this approach? Abrams Valiant effort, but it wont work. Worst case scenario is that Palestinian UN resolution makes references to borders, refugees, Jerusalem, or precise 1967 borders. No future Palestinian negotiator would ever be able to step down from what the UN has given him. 10

Rep. Ted Deutch (D-FL)


1. Do you believe that the Obama administration has waged war against Israel over the past year? Makovsky There has been an over-focus on settlements. Should have put focus on Europe, and London in particular, to pressure the Palestinians. Fear that the Europeans have taken our concessions and profited. Closer we get to the UN, the more U.S. influence dwindles.

Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH)


1. How can we ensure Fayyad doesnt get forced out of office? If the gains made under his leadership are dependent on his leadership, have we already lost? Abrams Skepticism over whether gains will stick; not a one-man-band, but certainly a leader. Need to coordinate with Europeans and the Saudis to ensure we send out the same messagei.e., we dont trust where the money will go without Fayyad. Makovsky Not about tying yourself to one man, but rather the principles he has represented. Gains made towards transparency and accountability, all the more impressive giving Arafats toxic legacy.

Rep. Ted Poe (R-TX)


1. It is unfortunate that our recent commitment to Israel has been so inconsistent, and this rift has been noticed all over the world. Congress has shown bipartisan support for the nation of Israel and we should continue to do so. Why do you think withholding funds to UN organizations recognizing Palestine is a good move? Phillips Would help to minimize damage to future peace negotiations.

Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL)


1. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has achieved nothing except to exacerbate and make perpetual the refugee status of Palestinians. Do you agree we should end the $4 billion we have already wasted on UNRWA? Schanzer UNRWA needs to end nowit is perpetuating problems rather than solving them. Sees refugees as clients rather than a problem. No longer a humanitarian problem in Palestine; it is now political. Makovsky Israelis wouldnt want UNRWA shut down; it needs to be depoliticized. We all look forward to it being phased out, but we should be careful that the remedy is correct for todays situation.

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Has Mrida Evolved? Part One: The Evolution of Drug Cartels and the Threat to Mexicos Governance House Committee on Foreign AffairsSubcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Tuesday, September 13, 2011 Witnesses:
Dr. Gary M. Shiffman, Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University Dr. Andrew Selee, Mexico Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars Dr. Robert J. Bunker, Small Wars Journal El Centro Dr. Pamela Starr, U.S.-Mexico Network & the School of International Relations, University of Southern California

Opening Statements: Chair Connie Mack (R-FL), Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere
Intend to assess the evolution of illegal activity in Mexico and to determine if taxpayer programs have evolved accordingly. Since 2006, Mexican drug cartels have evolved into resilient transnational criminal organizations, expanding operations in human trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, weapons smuggling and stealing resources. o Their activities are aimed at undermining the Mexican government, protecting illegal activity, and winning the support of the people or, failing that, instilling fear in the population. U.S. has important security role in this fight as a result of proximity to and commerce with Mexico. It must work jointly with Mexico. The U.S. needs to design a new productive way forward, and the Mrida Initiative (implemented Oct. 27, 2007) is not the answer: o Has seen chronic delays and implementation challenges. o Lacks target dates, tangible goals and strategic guidance. o Does not seriously address the national security challenges we face, and does not correctly identify the problem as an insurgency. The U.S. must support a targeted, counterinsurgency strategy, measures of which must include: o An all-U.S. agency plan to attack and dismantle criminal networks. o Doubling the number of border patrol agents and increasing funding for border protection equipment. o Teaching culture of lawfulness to ensure local population support of the government and rule of law over the cartels.

Ranking Member Eliot Engel (D-NY), Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere


There is no more important relationship for the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere than with Mexico. From 2008-2010, Congress appropriated $1.5 billion for the Mrida Initiative, with bulk of funding training and equipping Mexican security forces. o Congress has funded $400 million so far this year, and pledges another $500 million.

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Mrida is moving away from focus on expensive equipment to focus on institution-building through training and technical assistance. o This switch in emphasis is critical for a number of reasons, prominently that technical expertise is less costly, more flexible and can be provided more quickly.

Chair Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations


U.S. southern border poses a growing threat to the American people. Conflicting interests as to what new policies should be in place to meet this threat are undermining effectual implementation. Closing the open border should be a priority. o Mexican government, people, businesses and cartels alike seem to want to keep the border open at all points. Mexico has no incentive, and has shown no initiative, to close the borders and limit immigration or the move of criminal operations. No cooperation on the part of Mexico to close border to all illegal activity, including illegal immigration. o Mrida is silent about the lack of adequate barriers and controls.

Ranking Member Russ Carnahan (D-MO), Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations


The time is right for Congress to be reviewing the Mrida Initiative and determining what next and new steps are needed to improve it. U.S. needs to attack this problem from all angles domestic and international.

Dr. Gary Shiffman


Drug cartels are businesses, run by individuals with goals of power and wealth. o Violence is byproduct of the nature of the marketplace in which these businesses operate. The current situation is a battle between and among government and outlaw forces for the hearts and minds of local populationsit is an insurgency. o The insurgency framework, once accepted, can simplify the nature of events that are taking place in Mexico. o With enhanced understanding, U.S. can create better policies. Mrida needs major improvements. Since 2006, nearly 40,000 people have been killed in Mexico as a result of drug-related violence. o The cartels use this violence and the threat of violence to flex their muscles, coerce local populations, and to battle for political control. In many areas of Mexico, drug cartels have taken the place of the Mexican state in terms of providing political goods and having a monopoly of force. Because drug trafficking is a business, U.S. strategy should focus on increasing the cost of engaging in narco-trafficking, so that the costs outweigh the revenue. o Strategy should also focus on the need to increase among the population respect for the rule of law. Traditional counterinsurgency methodology dictates that the battleground is not geographic but rather in the hearts and minds of the population.

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Dr. Andrew Selee


Fewer countries matter more for the future of the U.S. than does Mexico, economically, politically and socially. $6-9 billion in profits come from the drug trade to the U.S., half of it from cocaine. Mrida should be shifted in four ways: o Develop a strategic plan to reduce violence, i.e., go after the most violent organizations first and prioritize where the killing is worse. o Map and target trafficking organizations in the U.S. o Support reforms for police, prosecutors, and the courts. o Reduce consumption of illegal narcotics in the U.S.

Dr. Robert Bunker


Mexico is facing something way beyond organized crime threat. The Mrida Initiative needs to evolve to a more encompassing scope and scale and with greater sense of urgency. o The cartels in Mexico and elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere must be elevated to the number one strategic threat to the U.S. o Al Qaeda and terrorist organizations of the Middle East, through still a threat, must be downgraded to second priority.

Dr. Pamela Starr


Mexico has long been a source of illicit drugs, but only in the last generation has crossborder contraband evolved into crime syndicates that now present the greatest threat to Mexican national security. Democratic Mexico inherited extremely weak institutionsincluding the police force, prosecutors, courts, and jailsfrom long years of authoritarian rule. Mridas fight against Mexicos drug cartels has registered significant successes, but these successes have modified the operating environment in Mexico. o Four changes in this operating environment stand out: Strategy is gradually transforming national security challenge into a policing problem displaying acute weaknesses of Mexican law enforcement. Inter-cartel competitiveness led to increased violence. Criminal organizations with weakened capacity to transport drugs to the U.S. have turned to retail drug sales in Mexico itself, as well as other lines of business, including extortion, kidnapping, etc. Crime syndicates have morphed into international criminal networks. The situation in Mexico is a law enforcement problem, not a military one. U.S. needs to mend Mrida, not end it.

Questioning Chair Connie Mack (D-FL), Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere


1. Mexican cartels have clearly evolved and become more resilient since 2007. Do you believe that Mexicos governance and rule of law is threatened? If so, is it more in jeopardy today than it was in 2007? Shiffman: o Absolutely yes, there are actual threats to the government of Mexico today that didnt exist, or not to the same degree, in 2007. It is a condition that we must take seriously; we must elevate it. 14

Most are reluctant to call the situation an insurgency, but that is what is going ona fight for political controlin large parts of Mexico.

Selee: o We tend to think that there are these six or seven organizations that run drugs to the U.S., that theyre giant organizations, that they have a lot of people working for them, etc., but these are much smaller groups, much more compact. The groups that do kidnapping, extortion may not even belong to the cartel. Actually a loose, somewhat nebulous network of people.

Ranking Member Eliot Engel (D-NY), Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere


1. Reports have indicated that a positive development of the Mrida Initiative has been a deepening trust between the Mexican and U.S. governments. Can you further characterize the nature of the U.S.-Mexico relationship in this regard? Is this new partnership institutionalized, or will it end when Caldern leaves office? Selee: o Yes, have seen greater levels of respect on both sides, which bodes well for future administrations. o There will be challenges, and the new government may be skeptical of associating too much with the U.S. Sentiments of cooperation run deep in the lower levels of the governments, which remain across administration transitions. Shiffman: o We need to identify those advocates in the Mexican government who value cooperation with the U.S. and are willing to take this battle on: Whoever the next president is, we must make sure that the U.S. is endorsing and working with these people. 2. Are we living up to our commitments as outlined in the Mrida joint statement to reduce drug demand in the U.S.? Starr: o Theres been a change of emphasis during Obama administration in drug control strategy towards limiting demand instead of solely decreasing supply. The change of emphasis has not been sufficiently pushed forward. o If we put together strong public relations campaign against the use of drugs, we can limit this issue. Demand for drugs will never be fully eliminated, and its important to recognize this pragmatism. 3. To what extent are firearms trafficked into Mexico, and farther into Central America? Bunker: o 20 percent of the arms used by cartels in Mexico come from the U.S., while the bulk of the arms come from Central America and also from Mexico itself.

Chair Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations


1. Is a higher likelihood that as we cooperate in intelligence with our Mexican counterparts that they may be giving information to the cartels? Does anyone doubt that?

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Selee: o Yes, intelligence is often wrongly used, even in the administration. o Though far from failsafe, the evidence is that there has been an increase in channels that are trustworthy.

Rep. Donald Payne (D-NJ)


1. On August 25, the NY Times had an article that said that the Mexican police force has been given some leeway in crossing the border to fight drug cartels in the U.S. Have any of those raids happened? Is there any concern about U.S. constitutionality or law? Shiffman: o Mexican officials, of course, have no authority inside of U.S. borders; it would just be an information liaison-type role, and the same thing with U.S. officials inside of Mexico. 2. How have we measured any success of the Mrida program? Selee: o Three sets of measures: Level and intensity of violence; Whether the cartels are splintering; and Increase in capacity of Mexican police force. Starr: o Success is also measured on what the Mexican government says its objectives are, i.e., the breaking down of large crime syndicates that threaten the government. By this measure, the Mexican government has done very well, but the violence comes as consequence of having done that. The next step is to build the occupational and institutional capacity of the police force.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX)


1. Would you agree that the drug cartels fall squarely within the U.S. law definition of terrorism? Shiffman: o Yes, it absolutely fits the definition. Selee: o These organizations are not involved in political acts, theyre in it just for the money. Starr: o Its dangerous to label the situation in Mexico: By labeling it, we tend to compare it to other things that have similar labels. We cant equate Mexico with something like the situation in Afghanistan or Pakistan, where there are terrorists whose objective is to overthrow the sitting government.

Rep. David Rivera (R-FL)


1. What can the Treasury Department do to go after the financing of the drug cartels? Shiffman: o All illicit organizations have to deal with banks, simply because it is impossible to lug around trunks of bulk cash. 16

Selee: o Priorities should be figuring out how the money gets into the U.S. system, and then cracking down on bank policies that make it easy to secure away laundered money.

Rep. Ted Poe (R-TX)


1. Which direction is Mexico headed today? Is it becoming a failed state, or pulling itself together? Bunker: o Theres another avenue: a criminalized state, where you have a state facade behind which criminals are pulling the strings. Shiffman: o Things are heading in the wrong direction in broad strokes. o It has become increasingly easy for cartels to run and have their business in the current environment in Mexico. They absolutely have political influence in certain areas. 2. Mexico has a drug problem among its population as well. Is that true? Selee: o Yes, absolutely, and its growing.

ARTICLES AND REPORTS White House news blog Sept. 20: Launch of FWD campaign USAID administrator Rajiv Shah launched the Food, War, Drought campaign, in partnership with the Ad Council, on Sept. 20. The program was created to inform the general public about the issues, particularly in the Horn of Africa. It focuses on engagement and encourages people to pass information onto their families and friends. Xinhua Sept. 20: China offers Pakistan $4.7million in emergency aid In the aftermath of severe flooding in southern Pakistan, the Chinese government provided emergency humanitarian aid worth $4.7 million. In addition, 7,000 waterproof tents will be shipped to Pakistan to help with relief efforts. Washington Post Sept. 20: Key Afghan leader killed in Kabul bombing Former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani, who was appointed last year to head a commission trying to broker a peace deal with the Taliban, was killed inside his Kabul home in a suicide bombing. Rabbani is the latest in a series of Afghan leaders who have been killed this year. New York Times Sept. 22: Michael Mullen accuses Pakistan of supporting U.S. Embassy attack Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael G. Mullen, in a testimony given in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee, claimed that Pakistans intelligence agency aided the insurgents who attacked the American Embassy in Kabul last week.

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BBC Sept. 22: Oxfam warns about effects of 'land rush' Oxfam has released a report warning that an increasing number of land deals are displacing farmers and leaving poor communities homeless. Vulnerable communities in Uganda and South Sudan have been affected, while the report also focuses on Honduras, Guatemala and Indonesia.

Disclaimer: Articles linked in the Update are intended to provide a dashboard view of newsworthy and topical issues from popular news outlets that will be of interest to readers of the Update. The articles are an information-sharing vehicle rather than an advocacy tool. They are in no way representative of the views of InterAction or the U.S. NGO community as a whole.

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