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26 SEP 2011

GOLD UPDATE
Many chart s t his weekend, much t o consider because of last week's move. There is a fairly t ight grouping of support t hat I'll show first : Previous chart s have shown an increasing parabolic rise in support ing t rendlines. The foremost line is one t o wat ch, which is near 1 5 7 8 this week

: Gold has also produced a fairly consist ent st air st ep in price from which invest ors have risked 2 -3 % above t he previous st ep. Anot her t est of t he last st ep is likely underway. If invest ors are st ill in t he mood t o buy, t hey should be willing t o risk anot her 1 -3 % above t he previous st ep, providing a risk window of 1575 to 1622:

I have shown t he long st anding support at t he 1 5 0 DMA for t he past couple years, which has now moved st eadily upward t o a support level of 1 5 7 7 :

Looking at t he MT EW count Wave ( 4 ) green can be counted as an irregular expanded flat which is filling in most of the 1 2 -1 5 % correct ion window for t his degree of correct ion, same for wave( 2 ) green. The bot t om of t he 1 5 % range is at 1 6 2 5 ish

There is also a serious danger t o furt her MT upside t hat could become obvious next week. If t he Mont h of Sept ember closes below t he Opening price in August ( 1 6 1 4 .7 6 ) , a very bearish Out side Key Reversal ( OKR) will be print ed. The same occurred in 2 0 0 8 which was followed by a 3 4 % major correct ion for 7 mont hs from t he 1 0 3 2 t op in March 2 0 0 8 . Such a move would be a major sell signal for many invest ors. An int ra-mont h fall t hrough 1 6 1 4 .7 6 is accept able t his week, but t he mont h MUST close above 1 6 1 4 .7 6 , friday t he 3 0 t h t o avoid t his bearish signal. Here is t he chart :

The act ion on Friday did see an end of day bounce aft er filling in a very t hinly t raded area bet ween bet ween 1 6 3 2 and 1 6 3 8 , t hen finished t he day back above t he sloping t rend-line connect ing t he previous 2 ST bot t oms. This shows t hat t here is some degree of buying int erest at t hese levels

Also, Friday closed the day about $55 below the lower Bollinger Band (BB). This was the second day of closing below the band. One more day is possible on Monday, then chances are very good that price will rise back into the BBs again for at least a ST bounce. The 3/10/20 clearly in a bearish alignment and will remain that way with daily closes below the 10EMA (currently 1770):

A weekly t ime fibo point s t o next week as a possible bot t om. This would coincide wit h opt ions expiry, fut ures expiry, a new moon and a minor Bradley t urn dat e on t he 2 6 t h:

The daily t ime fibo also shows a pot ent ial t urn early t his week. A dead cat bounce as a minimum. Daily fibo t urns are given +/ - 1 day of window, end of day Monday t he 2 6 t h should close t he window:

In A Nut Shell: I suspect t hat Gold will see a bounce early next week back up int o t he BBs 1 7 0 0 ish from a support zone of 1 6 1 4 t o 1 6 4 3 . Then a ret est of t hose lows looks possible in t he first or second week of Oct ober. A group of significant support exist s bet ween 1 5 7 5 and 1 5 9 0 . If t his zone of support is broken below 1 5 7 5 , t hen a major t op has likely formed, one which may t ake several mont hs for PoG t o surmount aft er dropping even furt her ( 1 2 0 0 s would be possible) . This would also kill the MT EW count and prospect s of a major parabolic run into t he first quart er of 2 0 1 2 .
DISCLAIMER: CHARTS AND OPINION HERE IS FOREDUCATION AND NOT FOR TRADING, FOR DETAILD DICLAIMER VISIT CHIEFSFORUM

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