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Big breaking news this week is Bush's space plan. Here's my take on it as a scenario--
Bush is pushing space exploration as a unifying political issue, but he needs to
successfully sell it to the public. Ocean policy is vastly more popular than space which
prevents Bush from building that public support. Bush's space plan is key to human
survival.
SPACE.................................................................................................................................3
SPACE POP SHELL PAGE 1 OF 2.................................................................................3
SPACE POP SHELL PAGE 2 OF 2.................................................................................4
2NC OVERVIEW............................................................................................................5
2NC AT: NONUNIQUE WON'T PASS NOW PAGE 1 OF 2.........................................6
2NC AT: NONUNIQUE WON'T PASS NOW PAGE 2 OF 2.........................................7
2NC LINK EXTENSION................................................................................................8
2NC IMPACT EXTENSION...........................................................................................9
2NR OVERVIEW..........................................................................................................10
SPACE KEY TO SURVIVAL........................................................................................11
BUSH IS POLITICALLY MOTIVATED......................................................................12
.......................................................................................................................................12
TOUGH SELL...............................................................................................................13
SPIRIT PROBE MEANS NOW KEY...........................................................................14
PUBLIC SUPPORT KEY TO SPACE PAGE................................................................15
POLITICAL CAPITAL IS KEY....................................................................................16
PUBLIC CARES MORE ABOUT OCEANS THAN SPACE......................................17
COST IS AFFORDABLE..............................................................................................18
BUSH PLAN = SPACE MIL.........................................................................................19
ENTITLEMENT REFORM KEY TO MARS...............................................................20
IMMIGRATION................................................................................................................21
POLITICAL CAPITAL KEY........................................................................................21
BUSH PUSH KEY........................................................................................................22
BUSH WON'T SPEND POL CAP ON IMMIGRATION OR SPACE..........................23
TOUGH FIGHT.............................................................................................................24
BUSH HAS CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT...................................................................25
BASE HATES AMNESTY............................................................................................26
WILL BE ALTERED.....................................................................................................27
WON'T PASS.................................................................................................................28
IMMIGRATION REFORM SAVES THE GOP............................................................29
MISCELLANY..................................................................................................................30
PRICES ARE STABLE.................................................................................................30
ECONOMY STRONG..................................................................................................31
TRADE DEFICIT DOWN............................................................................................32
BUSH'S ECONOMIC POLICIES WORKED...............................................................33
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BASE DOESN'T LIKE HEALTHY MARRIAGE........................................................34
POLITICAL CAPITAL ON HEALTHY MARRIAGE KEY TO BASE.......................35
HEALTHY MARRIAGE SOLIDIFIES THE BASE.....................................................36
BASE IS LOCKED DOWN..........................................................................................37
BUSH ALWAYS PLAYS TO THE BASE.....................................................................38
GOP IS UNITED, DEMS DIVIDED............................................................................39
UNITY GIVES GOP HUGE ELECTORAL ADVANTAGE........................................40
ELECTION IS A TOSSUP............................................................................................41
BUSH STRAT IS TO BUY SWING VOTES................................................................42
O'NEILL WON'T HURT BUSH....................................................................................44
VETO KEY TO FISCAL CONSERVATISM................................................................45
DEMS LOSE ON TAXES.............................................................................................46
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SPACE
This is the challenge President Bush faces as he promotes his plan for renewed space exploration: selling
the idea to a public that, when reminded, believes the billions of dollars it would cost should be spent
elsewhere. The timing of the proposal also raises a political question: Will voters discount the idea as an
election-year reach for grandiosity (with a bill that comes due later), or will they perceive this and other
recent, bold proposals as welcome signs that Mr. Bush is a leader with vision?
So far, Americans are reacting just as they did in the 1960s, when President Kennedy proposed travel to the
moon. And that may be part of the White House's calculation, as Bush lays out a multibillion-dollar plan to
establish a permanent base on the moon and a mission to Mars. During the '60s, as the nation faced the
costs of the Great Society programs and the Vietnam War, it still managed to fund a space program that put
the first man on the moon in 1969.
"If the Democrats are going to come after Bush after his speech and say, 'At a time with record deficits,
why are you proposing spending the money?' that will resonate to some degree with the public, no question
about it," says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll. "But on the other hand, the psychological
lift that comes from the concept will also resonate with the public on the Bush side, so who knows?"
Other findings: 71 percent agree that overfishing is threatening the health and stability of the marine
environment. At a time in our political history when most Americans question the role of government, a
surprising 85% of Americans believe the Federal government needs to do more to protect the ocean. And,
perhaps most dramatically, 98% of Americans say we have a responsibility to protect the ocean so future
generations can enjoy them.
The poll, conducted for SeaWeb by Washington, D.C.-based polling company The Mellman Group, found
that "the ocean" has the potential to become a powerful political issue. Says the Mellman Group's director,
Mark Mellman, "the ocean is an issue waiting to be made" in the minds of the American people.
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An even better reason comes from remembering why Polynesians in their open canoes and early Africans
and Christopher Columbus all went out in search of new lands to people: No reason other than that humans
are curious and inclined to expand their numbers when the opportunity presents itself. In satisfying their
wanderlust, their quest to go new places also helped to ensure humanity's survival.
Up to now, though, our eggs remain in one basket, the earth, within a bigger basket, the solar system.
Nature creates probabilities that, given enough time, are certainties: Someday something will bump into
the earth, perhaps fatally.
We wouldn't be here if asteroid impacts were not rare, but neither would we be here if they never happened,
clearing out existing life to make room for new. Scientists suspect several thousand large objects exist in
the solar system whose paths cross the earth's. One estimate predicts that collisions the size of one that
leveled 800 square miles of Siberia in 1908 are a once-a-century occurrence. Nobody knows when a rock
too big for humanity to survive might come along. The planet was pelted by several stones of civilization-
wrecking size as recently as 36 million years ago. A newly-discovered crater in Bolivia is believed to
signify a collision with an asteroid releasing the force of a thousand hydrogen bombs in the past 20,000
years. Two others of comparable size struck in the past million years.
Whether we get started this century or next might not matter against such a time frame, but every job has to
have a starting point. Here's the subtle charm of the president's plan, which waves off a direct there-and-
back trip to Mars in favor of first establishing a human habitation on the moon. His blueprint implicitly
recognizes that the best reason for going anywhere is to begin creating the possibility of self-sustaining
human settlements on other worlds.
Those who say mere science could be done more cheaply with robotic probes are right. A space program
that doesn't regard its ultimate purpose as conveying human beings to new worlds so they can inhabit and
develop them is a space program in which manned spaceflight will remain an illogical extravagance. There
is nothing humans can do on Mars that machines can't, except to live and behave (and evolve) as humans.
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2NC OVERVIEW
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2NC AT: NONUNIQUE WON'T PASS NOW PAGE 1 OF 2
"Those of us whose feet are planted firmly on Earth are alert to the fact that the promises of other bold
presidential initiatives are going unfulfilled," said Rep. Tom Lantos (D-San Mateo). "Why is the No Child
Left Behind program, which provided such hope just two years ago, now being deprived of the financial
support needed to meet its goals?"
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) lavishly praised the initiative. "A national commitment to
space is not a voluntary initiative -- it is a strategic imperative," he said.
White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan said the initiative would not derail Bush's commitment to
halve the federal budget deficit within five years.
It is easy to understand why the American space agency is now pushing for brave new worlds, not to
mention massive government support for their pains. NASA has been humbled lately in its efforts to breach
the galactic frontier. At present, NASA must rely on Russian rocket launches to reach the international
space station. Furthermore, China has been flexing its cosmic muscles with the recent announcement from
its space agency that it will "embark on a maiden unmanned mission to the moon within three years."
It seems that the Bush administration is banking on the success of its recent unmanned probe to Mars as an
opportunity to advance more controversial missions in the future. NASA chalked up a critical victory for
itself in early January as its Mars probe Spirit sent back to Earth black-and-white photos of the Martian
terrain. U.S. activity on planet Earth has been no less ambitious.
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This is the same plan presented by the first President Bush. As a re-election tactic it didn't work, obviously.
As a new scientific initiative, it wasn't started. Even as a proposal, it wasn't finished.
Christopher Kraft -- former NASA mission control director during the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo
programs -- said the main obstacle is public opinion: "The biggest challenge is getting the nation to be as
supportive for going back to the moon and on to Mars in the future the same way it was for the Apollo
program."
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IT'S TRY OR DIE BABY--THE C SUBPOINT EVIDENCE FROM THE 1NC PROVES
THAT WITHOUT BUSH'S PARADIGM SHIFT TO HUMAN SPACE
COLONIZATION ALL OUR EGGS ARE IN ONE BASKET AND HUMAN
EXTINCTION IS A CERTAINTY--DWARFS THE WORKADAY CONCERNS OF THE
AFF CASE--
The nature of humans can be very bad, but the reverse is also true.
Exploring has been in our blood since the beginning of time. Exploring and inhabiting other planets is the
next logical step in our evolution. Plus, the medical and technological breakthroughs that we will stumble
onto by exploring space will increase the quality of life for everything on planet Earth.
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2NR OVERVIEW
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Only a spacefaring culture with the skills to travel among and settle planets can be assured of escaping a
collision between Earth and a large asteroid or devastation from the eruption of a super volcano, they
told the World Space Congress.
"Space exploration is the key to the future of the human race," said Young, who strolled on the moon more
than 30 years ago and now serves as the associate director of NASA's Johnson Space Center. "We should be
running scared to go out into the solar system. We should be running fast." Scientists believe that an
asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs more than 60 million years ago, and are gathering evidence of previously
large collisions.
"The civilization of Earth does not have quite as much protection as we would like to believe," said Leonid
Gorshkov, an exploration strategist with RSC Energia, one of Russia's largest aerospace companies. "We
should not place all of our eggs in one basket."
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The president's promised "new era of discovery" was developed by a multi-agency group, coordinated at
the National Security Council. Officials said the lunar and Mars program will have a military component,
noting that the Pentagon will be consulted and may help with launches.
With his announcement of new missions to the moon -- to operate as a base for even more ambitious
expeditions to Mars -- Bush is looking to revisit the popular Apollo program launched by president John F.
Kennedy in 1961 that led to man's first moon walk in 1969.
"We've got a 450 billion deficit this year," said Senator Richard Gephardt, one of nine contenders for the
Democratic presidential nomination. When I led the fight for the (president Bill) Clinton economic program
in 1993, we had these kind of big deficits. Our first attention was paid to the economy and getting jobs back
in this country. And that's what we ought to be doing now."
None of the nine has emerged in the polls as a clear front-runner against Republican Bush in November,
and Bush hopes to make the most of his advantage as incumbent president in education, health and social
issues, themes considered Democrats' pet territories, while at the same time offering the space program.
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TOUGH SELL
A new Associated Press poll finds that more than half of respondents would prefer to spend the money on
domestic programs rather than on space research.
Bush asked Congress on Wednesday to increase funding for NASA by nearly $1 billion over five years and
to redirect $11 billion from other space agency programs toward the new effort during the same period.
The amounts represent seed funding for a new class of rockets and spacecraft that would carry humans on
exploratory journeys in space.
There is congressional concern that the lofty goals in the Bush initiative may far exceed the proposed
budget.
"The first year after [President John] Kennedy announced the Apollo program, the NASA budget was
doubled," said Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Florida, the only current member of Congress who has flown in space.
The value of the Bush administration proposal is likely to be judged not by the idea itself, but by whether it
can create the political and financial support needed to make the program real.
"Bush can talk the talk, but he has to come up with a plan that generates something besides artwork," said
John Pike, an expert on space issues. "He has to come up with a plan that is politically and financially
sustainable."
White House officials have withheld many details of the plan and have made no public statements,
deferring until Bush makes his widely anticipated speech next week. But the initiative already has sparked
strong debate, even within the ranks of space-exploration advocates.
A manned moon or Mars mission could be a tough sell to the general public, coming at a time when the
federal government is heavily in debt and facing massive investments needed to modernize the electrical
grid, improve crumbling highways, build new universities and many other items crucial to U.S. economic
competitiveness. The U.S. Treasury is expected to sustain a $480-billion deficit this fiscal year, and rack up
annual deficits of $1.4 trillion between now and 2008.
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"It is an unprecedented Internet event for NASA," said Brian Dunbar, NASA's Internet services manager.
The public response to the first successes of the $820 million Mars rover missions, space historians say, is
due in part to the long romance people have had with the most Earth-like planet in the solar system and the
persistent hope that it might harbor life - alien life or, one day, transplanted humans.
It also surely reflects the improved capability of the new lander's cameras and the public's access to the
Internet - which has grown enormously since the last successful Mars landing, in 1997.
What's far less certain is whether the public's fascination with the Mars images will translate into
increased political support for NASA's budget and for Bush's new ambitions in space.
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Space historian McCurdy said a success like Spirit's on Mars can help. "If the robotics people are
successful with low-cost missions which fit inside the NASA budget, it's not hard to figure out the
decision," he said.
While no one is proposing new expeditions like the $3.3 billion Cassini (launched in 1997 and due at
Saturn in July), NASA is continuing with cheaper robotic adventures, including missions to Mercury and
Pluto, both developed at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab.
"They're going to keep the momentum going with low-cost missions and hope one day to spring enough
money loose to fund the big-budget human missions," McCurdy said.
Whether Bush can whip up public enthusiasm and the big sums needed from Congress for his grand vision
of space exploration remains unknown.
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When asked to prioritize between charting space or the oceans, 55 percent of the survey group chose the
oceans, while 35 percent took space despite the discovery in 1996 of what could be microbial fossils on
Mars.
The vast majority of those surveyed for SeaWeb, an education and advocacy project of the Pew Charitable
Trusts, saw the oceans as intimately linked to the future of humans.
"It surprised us a little that the people surveyed picked the oceans over space," said Boyce Thorne-Miller, a
marine biologist with SeaWeb. "Perhaps it's because the oceans are more about people and life than space."
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COST IS AFFORDABLE
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Alice Slater, director of the Global Resource Action Centre for the Environment, said yesterday: "They are
not going to fly you to the moon, they are only going to fly military equipment. The plan to establish a
beach-head, taking the high ground from which to dominate and control the military use of space, is clearly
articulated in the documents of the US Space Command. It will create a new arms race to the heavens."
Michelle Ciarrocca, of the World Policy Institute and author of report on the Bush administration's missile
defence plans, said: "The push to establish a permanent US presence on the moon could be the first step in
carrying out the goals outlined by Rumsfeld's space commission. Eight Pentagon contractors were on the
commission, marking a serious and direct conflict of interest."
Experts believe robots would be sent to the moon by 2008 and astronauts ready to build a lunar base would
land there by 2020. The proposal envisions using the moon as a staging area for deeper space exploration
with a landing on Mars after 2030.
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Mr. Bush's sherpas are already plotting private accounts as a way to transform Social Security from a
burden on labor productivity into a property right for individuals. Health savings accounts, now in their
infancy, combined with tax reform, would provide a model for doing the same with Medicare.
Those who confidently insist Mars is "unaffordable" under current budget conditions (with 77 million baby
boomers beginning their retirement four years from now) should wake up and take some perspective-
correcting medication. Nothing is affordable under current budget conditions. That's an argument for fixing
entitlements rather than for giving up on the progress of humanity.
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IMMIGRATION
"I would anticipate some very interesting hearings on the issue and some important preliminary action, but
no action on the House and Senate floors until 2005," said Randel Johnson, a vice president of the U.S.
Chamber of Commerce, which favors the Bush proposal.
"Immigration reform is never easy," and this will be no exception, said Cecilia Mun~oz, vice president for
policy with the National Council of La Raza, the nation's largest Hispanic civil rights group. "It all
depends on how much political capital that Bush is prepared to invest in it."
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who sponsored a broader proposal but spoke favorably of Bush's initiative,
also said that a major presidential push -- including a demand for action by August in next week's State of
the Union message -- is essential for passage this year. "The administration sets the agenda," he said.
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Flake was at the White House when the president outlined his plan -- a sign that the administration
approves of the effort.
One GOP aide working on immigration was pessimistic that Congress could act. "To be very honest, not
much is going to happen this year," said the aide. "It's an election year. It's a very difficult topic for
members on all sides of the political spectrum. It's really divisive in the parties."
The odds look particularly long in the House, where extending benefits to illegal immigrants would face
outright opposition. A spokesman for House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) said provisions that
"seem to reward illegal behaviors" are "not going to generate much enthusiasm on the House side." But he
praised the bill's basic premise and its enforcement provisions.
Nevertheless, Congress will deal with immigration if Bush presses for action. The Senate Judiciary
Committee could hold hearings in February, aides said.
Since the administration proposal is so far only an outline, any existing bill could become the basis for final
legislation, or another GOP member could introduce what becomes the administration bill.
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Few expect the White House to expend much political capital in pushing for the new measures to become
reality.
Thomas Mann of the liberal Brookings Institution sees Bush's proposals as election-year window dressing.
"It's all about setting the agenda, being seen as the activist president and doing it in a way that he figures he
can get political advantage simply from proposing items," said Mann.
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TOUGH FIGHT
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Another political wrinkle: While the proposal is said to upset the president's ideological base, in fact, there
are many conservative enthusiasts, including senators Larry Craig and John McCain and congressmen
Chris Cannon, Jeff Flake, and Jim Kolbe, who have called for a "market-based solution to a market-based
problem." Moreover, the business community strongly supports immigration reform, and pro-immigrant
groups like the National Immigration Forum have made positive statements. This will enable the
administration to make the Democrats play policy, not politics--or face public criticism from pro-immigrant
groups.
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WILL BE ALTERED
On Wednesday, Mr. Bush announced his principles for a new immigration policy that would allow the
estimated 8 million to 12 million illegal aliens in the United States to apply for guest-worker status if they
can find willing employers.
He also said he wants to increase the level of legal immigration, and would let those in the guest-worker
program apply for legal permanent residence.
But on other major initiatives where Mr. Bush had made a grand presentation of principles, he abandoned
key parts by the time he signed legislation.
He accepted an education reform bill in 2001 even though it lacked the vouchers he had demanded. He also
endorsed the pending energy bill though it lacked provisions to explore for oil in Alaska's Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge.
In 2002, on campaign finance reform, even as he was signing the bill, he said it might not be constitutional.
And last year he signed a $400 billion Medicare overhaul even though conservative critics said it did
nothing to enhance the long-term financial stability of the program, as Mr. Bush initially had insisted.
"The No Child Left Behind Act sort of set the template for this - it starts off with the birds and the bees and
the fluffy white clouds, and by the time it's done, you've got stuff that makes a French porno director look
away," said Michael McKenna, a Republican strategist.
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WON'T PASS
Rep. Tom Tancredo, Colorado Republican and chairman of the Congressional Immigration Reform Caucus,
said the politics of immigration differ from such issues as education, campaign finance reform and
Medicare.
"For every one of those three proposals, there was a broad-based support for the way to go," he said. "You
don't have that kind of thing on this issue."
Because of that, he said, he expects Mr. Bush will not put the sort of effort into passing an immigration bill
that he did for education and Medicare reforms.
Mr. Kent said he also doesn't think broad legislation will pass the House, but sees a political danger for the
president already.
"I think a Democratic presidential candidate, even if he's liberal on a lot of things, I think he could
effectively flank and hurt [Mr. Bush] in several key states," Mr. Kent said, adding that Mr. Bush risks
alienating his base.
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Bush has grasped the fundamental reality of American politics -- that a demographic time bomb was ticking
beneath the Republican Party, gradually converting "red" states to "blue," sapping the vitality from the GOP
political base. After decades of pushing English-only, anti-bilingual and anti-immigrant-aid initiatives, the
Republican Party was perceived by Hispanic voters as racist and Anglo-centered.
But by his proposal, Bush has reversed the field and shown a sensitivity to the needs of the Hispanic
community that may well reverse the heretofore inevitable demographic trend and save the future of his
party.
Purists in the GOP have to decide whether they want to be America's second party or only its third. Unless
the Republicans adjust to the demographic realities that are engulfing California, Arizona, Texas, Florida,
Illinois, New Jersey, New York and many other states in between, they risk fading from the center stage of
our national politics. Pat Buchanan's formula of ethnic purity represents nothing more than a pathway to
extinction.
In the United States, with our polyglot society, it is not economic but demographic changes that threaten
political parties. Bush deserves credit and support for understanding the nature of the political threat and
the substantive, moral imperatives and acting accordingly. Bravo.
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MISCELLANY
Yet manufacturers have been severely limited in their ability to pass on sharp increases in raw-materials
prices. Input prices on materials ranging from natural gas to wastepaper to iron have each risen by 8% or
more in the past 12 months. However, output prices on products ranging from cars to footwear to paper
machines have each risen by less than 2%.
This puts some pressure on profit margins. But David Greenlaw, an economist with Morgan Stanley, said
that many manufacturers have been able to offset this squeeze by keeping a tight grip on labor costs, which
are a much bigger component of their overall cost structures. He added the inability to raise prices means
"the focus on efficiency gains and cost cutting, and trying to focus on the cost side of the equation, will
continue."
Underscoring that point, the Fed's beige-book report noted that "wage pressures remained generally
subdued."
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ECONOMY STRONG
The Fed report, known as the "beige book," also said that prices charged by retailers and manufacturers
were "generally steady," despite increases in raw-materials costs. The point seemed to suggest that Fed
officials believe inflation remains tame enough to keep interest rates low for now. The Fed's next policy
meeting is Jan. 27 and 28.
Touching on a similar point, the Labor Department said in a separate report that producer prices, which are
the prices charged by manufacturers, increased in December after declining the month before. But there
were few signs in the price index that the improving economy had given manufacturers much leverage to
raise prices.
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The Commerce Department reported that total exports of U.S. goods and services rose to $90.63 billion in
November, the highest level in three years and up 2.9% from October. The gain underlines increasing signs
of improved competitiveness in the U.S. economy and rising demand for U.S. exports, which have
increased by about $2 billion every month since July.
The trade report helped fuel the dollar's rise against the euro Wednesday and push up U.S. stock prices.
Total U.S. imports came in at $128.64 billion in November for a deficit of $38 billion, $3.6 billion narrower
than October. Analysts had predicted the November gap would hit $42 billion. Much of the shift came on
the strength of a large jump in U.S. aircraft sales and a $700 million drop in U.S. crude-oil purchases from
abroad. Exports of U.S. consumer goods rose $550 million, while sales of farm products were up by $357
million.
IMPORTS ARE DOWN, INCLUDING FROM CHINA, AND TRADE GAP WILL
CONTINUE TO NARROW.
NEIL KING JR., Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, January 15, 2004,
URL: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB107412834410311700,00.html
A report from Insight Economics, an independent economic-research company in Danville, Calif.,
predicted a consistently narrowing trade deficit by the end of 2004, while noting that to achieve a sustained
narrowing of the trade gap, U.S. exports will have to outpace the rate of growth in imports by more than
50%.
In an unusual turn, imports from China were $14.14 billion in November, down $2.2 billion from the
monthly high in October. U.S. exports to China rose slightly in November to a record $3.32 billion. The
U.S. is now running an overall deficit with China for 2003 of $114 billion, compared with $101 billion in
2002.
The U.S. also clocked improved exports for the month to most countries in Asia, while overall imports
from so-called Pacific Rim countries, including Australia and New Zealand, fell by $4.55 billion to $36.68
billion in November.
The surging euro appears to have put a dent in European Union exports to the U.S., which rose through
much of the year but dropped in November by $1.5 billion. European officials have begun to worry in
recent weeks that the euro's rise against the dollar could weaken the demand for European exports.
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Wait a second. I'm a Democrat, one who helped raise hundreds of thousands of dollars for Democratic
candidates nationally in the last two decades. I voted for Al Gore.
But I'm also an objective financial commentator. With stocks at two-year highs and interest rates, as
represented by the 10-year treasury, hovering near all-time lows, I can't help reach a different conclusion
from Mr. Bush's critics: The economic policies pursued by this president have been a stunning empirical
success.
If you'd told me two years ago, in the wake of 9/11 and the collapse of the stock bubble, that we could have
8% GDP growth, I'd have laughed. Most commentators, even the optimistic ones, were worried about the
U.S. repeating Japan's post-bubble-incredible-shrinking-GDP-depression-experience. If you'd told me we
could have 8% GDP growth and long-term rates at 4%, I'd have said that such a combination was
impossibly Pollyannaish, a proverbial smooth concoction of oil and water. And if you'd told me that we
could have a robust stock market, with a broad array of 52-week highs in dozens of sectors, I'd have told
you that you were dreaming. Not after the battering this country's equities had taken.
Yet that's exactly what we have right now. I'd give the critics their due if 10-year rates had spiked to 6% or
even 5%, something they privately assured you'd have had to have happen by now. I'd also bless the
naysayers if the Dow were still at 7500, and the Nasdaq were still mired in the 1300-1400s, their residences
a year ago. But for crying out loud, you can sell billions of dollars in bonds or stocks at these great prices,
and that's evidence enough for this grizzled trader that the U.S. is booming without inflation.
Of course, we don't yet have job growth. However, economic recoveries don't traditionally produce job
growth until one year after interest rates bottom. That means March of 2004. From my perch, discussing
hiring plans with dozens of companies in industries as varied as smokestackers, financials and tech, we're
right on schedule for robust job creation.
So, critics, keep baying against the policies. Keep calling for higher taxes or fiscal responsibility. But as
someone who's stuck looking at the daily scorecard as represented by the impossible-to-manipulate markets
themselves, the judgment's already in: The Bush economic policies have worked beyond what anyone
could have hoped for. Or, to put it in parlance my party might understand, This time it's not the economy,
stupid.
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"This is like lobbing a snowball at a forest fire," said Sandy Rios, president of Concerned Women of
America, one of the largest conservative Christian advocacy groups. "This administration is dancing
dangerously around the issue of homosexual marriage."
The conservative Christians' insistence on an amendment to prohibit same-sex marriage may put President
Bush in a political bind as he starts his re-election campaign, caught between wooing potential swing voters
and turning out his core evangelical supporters. Some conservative strategists warn that pushing to amend
the Constitution to prohibit same-sex unions could turn off some potential Republican voters like suburban
women, who might find excessive talk about the perils of same-sex marriage as intolerant, mean-spirited or
weirdly obsessive.
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Gary L. Bauer, who ran on a traditional-values platform in the Republican primaries in 2000 and is now
president of the conservative group American Values, said, "If the White House puts this on the back burner
or doesn't put political capital into it, that would deeply demoralize a large block of voters that they are
expecting to turn out in November."
Several conservative Christians involved in the push for an amendment said they saw the State of the Union
speech, when President Bush will lay out his agenda for the year, as a pivotal test. "Time is running out but
the clock is still ticking," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council.
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The plan, which may be included in his State of the Union address next week, is to help low-income
couples with their interpersonal skills and publicise the value of marriage.
"This is a way for the president to address the concerns of conservatives and to solidify his conservative
base," a presidential adviser told the New York Times.
A year of rulings on same-sex relationships could make gay rights the touchstone issue in the forthcoming
election. In June the supreme court declared the anti-sodomy laws applied by some states unconstitutional,
effectively making consensual sex between gay couples legal.
For months, administration officials have worked with conservative groups on the proposal, which would
provide at least $1.5 billion for training to help couples develop interpersonal skills that sustain "healthy
marriages."
The officials said they believed that the measure was especially timely because they were facing pressure
from conservatives eager to see the federal government defend traditional marriage, after a decision by the
highest court in Massachusetts. The court ruled in November that gay couples had a right to marry under
the state's Constitution.
"This is a way for the president to address the concerns of conservatives and to solidify his conservative
base," a presidential adviser said.
Several conservative Christian advocacy groups are pressing Mr. Bush to go further and use the State of the
Union address to champion a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage. Leaders of these
groups said they were confused by what they saw as the administration's hedging and hesitation concerning
an amendment.
Administration officials said they did not know if Mr. Bush would mention the amendment, but they
expressed confidence that his marriage promotion plan would please conservatives.
Ronald T. Haskins, a Republican who has previously worked on Capitol Hill and at the White House under
Mr. Bush, said, "A lot of conservatives are very pleased with the healthy marriage initiative."
The proposal is the type of relatively inexpensive but politically potent initiative that appeals to White
House officials at a time when they are squeezed by growing federal budget deficits.
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Political analysts say issues such as the president's immigration policy and escalating federal spending are
festering in some conservative minds - and could seriously hurt Bush if, taken together, they erode turnout
among key conservative blocs on Election Day.
"They're not going to vote Democratic," said Karlyn H. Bowman, a polling specialist at the American
Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C. "Staying home in a close election is
what the Republicans would be worried about."
Right now, polls indicate that more than 90 percent of people who identify themselves as conservative back
Bush. The president's conservative base has been firmed up by patriotic identification with the Afghanistan
and Iraq wars, the cuts in income-tax rates, and Bush's embrace of some key aspects of the evangelical
Christian social agenda, including enacting a ban on the procedure conservatives call "partial-birth"
abortion.
Many conservatives say Bush has done a good enough job responding to their key positions that it would
take more than a few variances for him to lose the support of his base.
Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform, said of immigration, "It's not a vote-moving
issue for any bloc of the center-right coalition. People vote on guns. They vote on taxes. They vote on being
prolife."
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But these irrational Bush haters are body-piercing, Hollywood-loving, left-wing freaks who should go back
where they came from: the executive offices of Alcoa, and the halls of the Army War College.
I was one of the few commentators who didnt celebrate Paul ONeills appointment as Treasury secretary.
And I couldnt understand why, if ONeill was the principled man his friends described, he didnt resign early
from an administration that was clearly anything but honest.
But now hes showing the courage I missed back then, by giving us an invaluable, scathing insiders picture
of the Bush administration. Ron Suskinds new book The Price of Loyalty is based largely on interviews
with and materials supplied by ONeill. It portrays an administration in which political considerations
satisfying the base trump policy analysis on every issue, from tax cuts to international trade policy and
global warming. The money quote may be Dick Cheneys blithe declaration that Reagan proved deficits
dont matter. But there are many other revelations.
One is that ONeill and Alan Greenspan knew that it was a mistake to lock in huge tax cuts based on
questionable projections of future surpluses. In May 2001 Greenspan gloomily told ONeill that because the
first Bush tax cut didnt include triggers it went forward regardless of how the budget turned out it was
irresponsible fiscal policy. This was a time when critics of the tax cut were ridiculed for saying exactly the
same thing.
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So is that it? After Sept. 11, the Iraq war and the Madonna-Britney kiss, could it really be that we are back
to where we started? Since 2000, tens of millions of people have moved, divorced and converted; can it
really be that everything in America changes except politics?
Yes and no. Yes, the political divides today do look a lot like the ones that split the nation in 2000. But no.
When you look beneath the headline data, you see at least one important change. The events of the past
three years have brought to the foreground issues that divide Democrats, and pushed to the background
issues that divide Republicans. The first result is that the Republican Party is more unified than ever before.
Ninety-one percent of Republicans approve of the job President Bush is doing. In 1992, Bush's father didn't
have anything like that level of support, and even the Reagan administration was split between so-called
pragmatists and ideologues.
Today's Republicans not only like Bush personally, they also overwhelmingly support his policies.
According to a Pew Center study, 85 percent of Republicans support the war in Iraq, 82 percent believe that
pre-emptive war is justified, and 72 percent believe the United States is justified in holding terror suspects
without trial.
The Democrats, meanwhile, are divided on all these issues. According to the same Pew survey, 54 percent
of Democrats oppose the war in Iraq, but 39 percent support it. Forty-four percent of Democrats oppose the
pre-emptive war doctrine, but 52 percent support it. Forty-seven percent of Democrats oppose holding
terror suspects without trial, but 46 percent are in favor.
Liberals have all the passion these days. They dominate campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire, but
they have not won over half the voters in their own party.
The Democrats are also divided on major domestic issues. The Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg
surveyed Democrats in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Democrats there were split on NAFTA
and gay marriage and on whether to roll back all the Bush tax cuts.
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GOP UNITY AND DEM FISSURES GIVE BUSH A MASSIVE ELECTORAL EDGE.
David Brooks, New York Times columnist, Long Beach Press-Telegram (Long Beach,
CA), January 14, 2004 Wednesday
The biggest divide among Democrats is metaphysical. Some portion of the party, led by Howard Dean, is
so disgusted by Republicans that it does not believe it is possible to work with such people. Meanwhile,
others, including Dick Gephardt, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton, accept that Republicans are in power, are
willing to work with them and take a starkly different approach to politics.
This situation Republican unity and Democratic fissures means that the Democratic vote is less cohesive
than the GOP vote, at least on the presidential level. In a Bush-Dean matchup, 20 percent of Democrats
would vote for Bush, according to a CBS poll, while only 3 percent of Republicans would vote for Dean.
Overall, Bush leads Dean by 20 points. And in Iowa and New Hampshire, swing states where voters know
both candidates well, Bush is up by significant margins.
In other words, at least at the moment, Bush has crashed through the 45/45 partisan divide. He is a
polarizing figure, but there are many more people who support him than oppose him. And this support is
not merely personal; it is built into the issue landscape. According to an ABC/Washington Post poll, 57
percent of Americans say they are more likely to support a candidate who supported going to war in Iraq,
while only 35 percent say they would be less likely. According to Pew, 59 percent believe that the war in
Iraq has helped in the broader war on terror.
All of this means two things. First, as we dive into this period of intense Democratic primary competition,
it's worth keeping in mind that Democratic primary voters are a misleading snapshot of the electorate as a
whole. Second, while the nation remains closely divided overall, and gravitational pressures will cause the
general election to tighten, it is wrong to think that the electorate is fixed. There are millions of people who
may lean toward one party or another but who can be persuaded to support either presidential candidate.
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ELECTION IS A TOSSUP
Bush is basking in boffo poll numbers, economic statistics and fundraising results, but he's again playing
the "compassionate conservative" to appeal to moderates and Latinos. And his campaign is organizing as
though it fears a rerun of the 2000 near-tie.
Last week's Gallup poll showed Bush's national approval rating up to 60 percent, while 55 percent think the
country is on the "right track."
Fifty-four percent approve of his handling of the economy, which every indicator suggests is improving
rapidly, and 61 percent support his policies on Iraq, where the rate of attacks on U.S. forces is down since
the capture of Saddam Hussein.
In Gallup's trial run, Bush beats an unnamed "generic" Democratic opponent among likely voters by a
whopping 56 percent to 40 percent. And he beats Democratic frontrunner Howard Dean by 57 percent to 37
percent.
Yet, top officials at the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign say that "from a historical perspective, we
expect to be behind the Democratic nominee at two key points - when the nominee is chosen in March and
again after the Democratic convention" in July.
A top strategist at the Bush campaign told me that he thinks the president could win the election by 52
percent to 48 percent - but not by more, given the evenly divided U.S. political landscape, and only by
running scared.
"Is this a 50-50 country? Absolutely," said another top Bush campaign official. "If we weren't going into
this thinking that, would we have spent the Christmas break a year before the election working on training
sessions for 10,000 county chairs and precinct leaders?
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Greenberg argues that because the GOP now controls the White House, Congress and a majority of state
governorships and legislatures, it's in a position to use its power to "buy" swing constituencies.
He asserts this was the motivation behind Bush's temporary steel import quotas, his signing an exorbitantly
expensive farm bill and his supporting a $400 billion Medicare prescription drug bill.
A DEAN WIN WOULD BE A HISTORIC TURNING POINT AND CRUSH THE GOP.
John Podhoretz, The New York Post, January 13, 2004, Tuesday, Pg. 027
A Dean victory would be a watershed because it would be seen as a national rejection of the hard-charging
Bush-GOP approach to governance.
Dean would ascend to the Oval Office having sworn to raise taxes - ending the doctrine in place since 1984
that says nobody can win an election by promising to increase the American tax burden.
And (far more important) Dean's election would be seen as decisive repudiation of Bush's approach to the
War on Terror. His victory would bring an end to the Republicans' unquestioned 35-year dominance on the
question of which party does a better job of keeping America safe and strong.
Dean would have beaten a sitting president in the midst of an economic recovery and after victory in two
wars. Even if he wins by only 930 votes, as Bush did in 2000, there will be no arguing the point.
The Bush administration and the GOP Congress have put it all on the line these past years - from the tough
line in the War on Terror to the tax cuts to the Big Government solutions on health care and education. A
loss would destroy Republican self-confidence and indicate that the American people are eager for a
different kind of governing ideology.
But if the president wins in a landslide - by eight points or more - then the November election will be the
undoing of the present-day Democratic Party. Such a victory would almost certainly ensure that the
Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate would grow.
Americans would be making a clear and decisive ideological choice - not only embracing the president and
his agenda, but tossing Howard and the Deaniacs onto the ash heap of history.
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BRIAN MITCHELL, Investor's Business Daily, January 14, 2004 Wednesday, Pg. A01
Americans continued to give President Bush higher marks in January as their attitudes about the national
outlook improved, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll.
The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index jumped 4.7 points to 58.8, the highest since last June. It was
the index's third straight gain and the biggest since April 2003's Iraq war spike.
The improvement was fueled in part by six-point jump among Hispanics, one of the most-watched and
courted demographic groups this election year.
The IBD/TIPP National Outlook Index also rose, by 3.4 points to a seven-month high of 55.3.
"As he goes to give his State of the Union address next week, Bush enjoys solid approval ratings with
Americans who feel that the country is headed in the right direction and expecting a great economy in
2004," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling
partner.
"All six components of the National Outlook Index moved up handsomely," Mayur said. "The U.S.
standing in the world scored the biggest percentage improvement, gaining 9.4%. The capture of Saddam
Hussein, Libya's admission and reduction in troop casualties since Saddam's capture are all contributing to
the boost."
Two components topped 60. Economic optimism rose 1.5 to 60.6, a 22-month high. And quality of life rose
3.3 points to 63.1, the highest since Bush took office.
Direction of the country rose 4.3 to 55.9, a seven-month high. Only one of the six components -- moral and
ethics -- is still below 50. But it rose 1.4 points to 39.9.
The presidential leadership index peaked at 69.4 in April on the wings of victory in Iraq. But a six-month
slide left it at 53.5 in October, Bush's lowest rating ever.
The leadership index is made of three components. All three rose strongly in January.
Bush's favorability rating rose the most. It jumped 5.7 points to 57, a six-month high.
His job approval rating rose 4.5 points to 57.6, a five-month high.
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But judging by Reagan's ultimate political success - reelection to a second term and a growing legacy as a
hero to conservatives - Stockman appears to have gotten the lesser end of the deal. Today, political
observers predict the same for O'Neill, particularly if Bush wins reelection.
"It's a two-day story," says Jim Campbell, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo. "For Bush
supporters, it will be dismissed as sour grapes by someone who was fired from the administration, because
he wasn't doing a very effective job in the Cabinet. For people who are Bush detractors, this won't be any
news."
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The two straws that broke the conservative back came late last year, when Congress passed a 10-year,
$400-billion expansion of Medicare and drafted a year-end spending bill that was packed with billions for
special-interest projects.
Both Bush and Joshua Bolton, his budget director, have said the administration's aim will be to halve the
deficit, which is expected to near $500 billion in 2004, over the next five years. Much of that will come as a
result of economic growth, officials have said, but Bush also plans to keep a lid on spending by capping
annual appropriations growth at 3% or 4%, sources close to the administration say.
"That doesn't sound very radical," said Chris Edwards, a budget analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute,
demanding tighter budget restraint. "I guess they've decided they can win the election without us."
Administration officials held meetings last month to try to persuade conservative critics that Bush's budget
was not spendthrift. Bolton published a column defending Bush's budget record in the editorial pages of the
Wall Street Journal.
Bush's biggest test may come not in his budget request but in how much he stands up to Congress to
enforce his spending limits. He has yet to veto any legislation since becoming president, and some
Republicans have suggested that he veto a bill this year to reestablish his bona fides as a fiscal
conservative.
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