In conclusion, it seems ironic that reservations con-

cerning the desirability of describing, quantitatively,

the uncertainty inherent in forecasts of precipitation
occurrence have arisen in the operational forecasting
community at a time when the numerical weather pre-
diction community has at last recognized the need to
quantify the uncertainty in numerical model output
and is now hard at work developing and refining meth-
ods of ensemble forecasting with this goal in mind
(e.g., Tracton and Kalnay 1993; Brooks et al. 1995).
References
Brooks, H. E., M. S. Tracton, D. 1. Strensrud, G. DiMego, and
Z. Toth, 1995: Short-range ensemble forecasting: Report from
a workshop, 25-27 July 1994. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76,
1617-1624.
Curtis. J. c., 1995: Comments on "Operational omission and
misuse of numerical precipitation probability expressions."
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc" 76.1812-1813.
Epstein, E. S., 1985: Statistical inference and prediction in eii-
matology: A Bayesian approach. Meteor. Monogr" No. 42,
Arner. Meteor. Soc., 199 pp.
Comments on "Regional Simulations of
Greenhouse Warming Including Natural
Variability"
The easiest analysis of trends in average annual
temperature is to calculate a simple arithmetic aver-
age of the readily available records. When this pro-
cedure is used, thermally polluted records taint the
better temperature records all in one direction. When
temperature records are examined individually, the
forces affecting long-termtrends at individual stations
become apparent. These influences include those of
sea surface temperature from adjacent water bodies
and the urban heat island.
Chief among the forces acting on California tem-
perature trends is urban waste heat. In California the
rate of increase in temperature commonly attributed
to greenhouse warming was 3.14'F century-I for 29
stations located in counties with over one million
people and 0.04'F century-I for 27 stations located in
counties with fewer than 0.1 million people (see
Fig. I).
Long-term temperature trends are clearly a func-
tion of urban population density. There are few tem-
perature-measuring stations located in places with no
heated buildings, pavement, or night lights in their
1588
France, W. C., 1995: Comment!'. on "Operational omission and
misuse of numerical precipitation probability expressions."
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76,1814-1815.
Fritsch, 1. M., and R. L. Vislocky, 1995a: Reply. Part r. Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76,1813-1814.
--, and--, 1995b: Reply. Part II. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
76,1815-1816.
Murphy, A. H., S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R. L. Winkler,
1980: Misinterpretations ofprecipilation probability forecasts.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 61, 695-701.
Sink, S. A., 1995: Determining the public's understanding of pre-
cipitation forecasts: Results of a survey. Nat!. Wea. Dig., 19,
9-15.
Tracton, M.S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble pre-
diction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical as-
pects. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 379-398.
Vislocky, R. L., J. M. Fritsch, and S. N. DiRienzo, 1995: Opera-
tional omission and misuse of numerical precipitation prob-
ability expressions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 49-52.
Winkler, R. L., 1972: Introduction to Bayesian Inference and
Decision. Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 563 pp.
ALLAN H. MURPHY
PREDICTION AND EVALUATION SYSTEMS
CORVALLIS, OREGON
GLOBAL WARMING
An Urban Phenomenom in California
Temperature Trends at 107 Statons for 1909 to 1994.
Stralified by 1990 Population of the County where station is located
e<i-,-------------,
l'il9J951D<)
y _ 1.0406 + Large
-- Mote ,I"", [ Million People
Averag< of 29 St.,iu",
Mid,i'edCountie,
-- 1(1{I' lo I Millio" People
Averngl'uf.ll Sl"'C""
y _ 08,389 .004()5x. Sm,"1 (:o""';e,
--- i.e" Than lUOK People
-II.t+-l-&lCyf,ihleffi;-j Average of 27 51000"-'
Year
Fig. 1. Apparent global warming will not be understood except
by decomposing the datasets into individual station records and
evaluating the long-term trends of each record separately. The
apparent "global warming" is in reality urban waste heat affecting
only urban areas.
Vol. 77, No.7, July 1996
t
t
view shed. Station exposures that approach this ideal
do not reflect "greenhouse warming."
It was suggested that California's temperature
records were unique and that these results apply only to
California; however, the same relationship oflong-term
temperature trend and urban population density was also
found in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia.
It appears that Kim and North (1995) refer to trends
in the world's urban areas where the temperature is
commonly measured.
Reply
Urbanization indeed is an important source oflong-
term temperature rise at populated regions. The fig-
ure shown by Goodridge makes a point that the rate
of increase in temperature can significantly differ
between data taken from populated counties and that
from small counties in California. Therefore. regional
assessment of greenhouse warming should account for
this important effect.
The Jones dataset we use represents the surface
temperature averaged over 5 x 5 boxes on the earth.
Measurements from various sources were used for this
average. Data from different sources should first be
corrected for bias resulting from different sampling
conditions and techniques, among other things. Such
corrections include adjusting data with obvious urban-
ization effects (Jones et al. 1986). Therefore, it is not
likely that urbanization contributes significantly to the
warming trend shown in our article. The two test sites
representing the ocean (l50
0
W, 0) and land (90
0
E,
SOON) are fairly removed from any industrialization.
Temperature records at these sites, nevertheless, show
warming trends of 0.26and 0.90century-l, respec-
tively. On the other hand, a Texas coastal site, closer
to large cities than the previous two sites, shows a
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
References
Kim, K.-Y., and G. R. North, 1995: Regional simulations of
greenhouse warming including natural variability. Bull. Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 76, 2171-2178.
JAMES D. GOODRIDGE
MENDOCINO, CALIFORr\IA
negative trend. Further, considering the small area of
significant urbanization compared to the total global
area, local urbanization will not seriously contribute
to the warming in the global average temperature.
Therefore, it is our opinion that the warming trends
in our article are due mainly to the increase in the
concentration of greenhouse gases.
Undoubtedly, the urban heat effect cannot com-
pletely be removed from data and will result in a bias
toward a greater warming. It should be borne in mind
that certain local temperature records could reflect
warming due more to the increase of urban popula-
tion density than to greenhouse warming. We thank
Goodridge for pointing this out.
References
Jones, P. D., S. C. B. Raper. R. S. Bradley, H. F. Diaz, P. M. Kelly.
and T. M. L. Wigley. 1986: Northern Hemisphere surface air
temperature variations, 1851-1984.1. Climate Appl. Meteor..
25, 161-179.
KWANG-Y. KIM
TEXAS A&M UNIVERSrrY
COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS
1589
!
I
"