Indian Readership Survey (IRS) Q1 2011

SBICAP Securities Limited
Indian Readership Survey (IRS) Q1 2011

Rahul Kundnani Research Analyst - Institutional Equities
Mafatlal Chambers, A-Wing, 2nd Floor, N.M. Joshi Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai 400013 Ph: 91-22-4227 3388 E-mail: rahul.kundnani@sbicapsec.com
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SBICAP Securities Ltd.
Indias top-10 dailies: Hindi continues to dominate readership
The Indian Readership Survey (IRS) Q1 2011 pronounced a mixed quarter for Hindi newspapers compared to the IRS Q4 2010 results.
Dainik Jagran with an average issue readership (AIR) of 1.59 crore has witnessed a decline of 2.47% compared to the IRS Q1 2010 data. On QoQ basis, Dainik Jagran has shown a marginal decline of 1%. Dainik Bhaskar has reported an AIR of 1.40 crore with the positive growth of 5.15%. However, the readership has been flat compared to IRS Q4 2010. Hindustan has secured an AIR of 1.18 crore with a whopping double-digit growth of 19.12% YoY and 3% QoQ growth. Amar Ujala is the fourth most read daily in the country with an AIR of 87.47 lakh and a readership growth of 3.01% YoY and 1.00% QoQ. Rajasthan Patrika has recorded a positive growth of 5.21% with an AIR of 70.33 lakh on YoY basis but 2% decline on QoQ basis. Punjab Kesari has seen de-growth compared to the Q1 2010 results. It has reported an AIR of 34.79 lakh in IRS Q1 2011. Navbharat Times, Hindi daily of Times Group, has garnered an AIR of 25.89 lakh, a growth of 4.73% over Q1 2010, but has been flat QoQ.
(All figures in 000s)
Publications Dainik Jagran Dainik Bhaskar Hindustan Malayala Manorama Amar Ujala Lokmat The Times Of India Daily Thanthi Rajasthan Patrika Mathrubhumi
2009 R2 16,095 12,881 9,338 9,183 8,300 7,103 7,137 7,516 6,481 6,675
2010 Q1 16,315 13,330 9,916 9,582 8,491 7,360 7,032 7,354 6,682 6,696
2010 Q2 15,925 13,303 10,143 9,841 8,417 7,402 7,088 7,402 6,900 6,566
2010 Q3 15,950 13,488 10,839 9,927 8,583 7,809 7,254 7,245 7,217 6,678
2010 Q4 16,066 13,992 11,452 9,930 8,640 7,712 7,424 7,014 7,166 6,637
2011 Q1 15,910 14,016 11,810 9,938 8,747 7,486 7,442 7,187 7,033 6,800
Growth 2011 Q1 over 2010 Q4 Absolute % (156) (1) 24 0 358 3 8 0 107 1 (226) (3) 18 0 173 2 (133) (2) 163 2
2
Source: SBICAP Securities Research, IRS 2011 Q1, Exchange4media.com, Company
Top English dailies
English dailies have witnessed a growth of 3.62% in IRS Q1 2011 on YoY basis and saw a mixed trend on QoQ basis. Amongst the top leaders, DNA with an AIR of 8.22 lakh in Q1 2011 was the top gainer with a rise of 14.64% against an AIR of 7.17 lakh in Q1 2010 and grew by 10% QoQ. Hindustan Times followed with a 6.49% YoY growth and 3% QoQ growth. The Times of India with an AIR of 74.42 lakh witnessed an increase of 5.79% YoY, but has remained flat on QoQ basis. In the top-10, Deccan Chronicle figures headed south with a drop of 7.92%YoY and a decline of 4% QoQ.
Source: SBICAP Securities Research, IRS 2011 Q1, Company
Dominates Bihar Delhi Jharkhand
Bihar
Bihar
5,000
(All Figures in 000s)
4,547
4,564
4,384
4,337
2,595 501
2,756
2,526
2,505 365
2,512
2,527
2,410 275
418
264
0 2007R2 2008 R1 2008 R2 2009 R1 2009 R2 2010 Q1 2010 Q2

Aj
238
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
259
2011 Q1
Hindustan
Dainik Jagran
Good growth of dailies in Bihar; Hindustan grew by 5.7% Seven out of top-10 dailies witness growth; Hindustan remains the distant leader in Bihar and still growing at a consistent rate by adding 104,000 readers in the IRS Q1 2011. It has grown by 5.7% last year. Its current AIR is 47.29 lakh compared to 46.25 lakh in IRS Q4 2010. Dainik Jagran , the second largest daily read in the state, is back on growth path and has registered a growth of 3.5% over the previous quarter. It has an AIR of 25.68 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 24.82 lakh in the previous survey. Dainik Jagran has grown by 1.7% last year. Prabhat Khabar is growing swiftly in Bihar and has added more than 23% readers over last quarter. Hindustan Times lost more than 19% of readers in a quarter. It recorded an AIR of 84,000 in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 104,000 in last quarter and 80,000 in Q1 2010. I-Next grew by 46.8% readers over last survey. The Times of India has recorded an AIR of 1.51 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 and has added 5,000 readers last year.
269
270
1,250
2,382 284
2,482
2,568
2,500
4,294
3,750
4,331
4,475
4,515
4,625
4,729

Delhi
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 500 0 2007R2
837
1,907 1,733
2,134
2008 R1
947
1,862 1,661
2,113
2008 R2
The Times Of India
1,103
2,011 1,539
1,935

2009 R1 2009 R2 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3
Hindustan Navbharat Times
1,262
1,990 1,569
1,954
Delhi
Hindustan Times
1,183
1,934 1,590
2,024
1,188
2,012 1,690
1,947
1,160
1,885 1,961 1,724 1,856 1,914 1,163 1,920 1,169 1,954 1,132 1,795 1,895
2010 Q4 2011 Q1
1,871 1,890 1,853
Jharkhand
1,217
1,252
1,086
1,164
1,196
1,500
1,353
1,469
1,630
1,766
2,000
1,014
1,004
1,001 800
1,000
982
966 851
981 854
923 869
1,133
1,286
801
795
500
0 2007R2 2008 R1 2008 R2 2009 R1 2009 R2 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1
Hindustan Prabhat Khabar Dainik Jagran
Hindustan leads in Jharkhand; dailies grow The top three dailies have seen growth in readership in Q1 results of IRS. Hindustan, the No.1 Hindi daily of Jharkhand, recorded 4.6% of growth in the IRS Q1 2011. Prabhat Khabar, the second largest read daily in Jharkhand, has recorded a growth of 6.6% readers in this quarter. It has registered an AIR of 13.71 lakh compared to 12.86 lakh in the previous quarter. Dainik Jagran, the No.3 daily in the state, has registered a growth of 3% in the IRS Q1 2010.
776
823
888
915
1,371
1,848
Jharkhand
dominates
Madhya Pradesh Gujarat Rajasthan Punjab
8
Haryana Chhattisgarh Chandigarh
Madhya Pradesh
4,000
Madhya Pradesh
3,226
3,127
3,126
3,060
2,000
3,026
3,201
3,000
3,314
3,357
3,534
626 378
612 339
1,209
618
790 455 546 394
574 343
1,081
467 738 487 332
509 571
629 524
517
386
348
331
296
200
2007R2
2008 R1
2008 R2
2009 R1
2009 R2
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
2011 Q1
Dainik Bhaskar
Nai Dunia
Nava Bharat (MP)
Raj Express
Dainik Jagran
Madhya Pradesh dailies grow marginally; Dainik Bhaskar grows by 5.5% The growth story continues for dailies in Madhya Pradesh. Dainik Bhaskar has sustained its leadership in the state with AIR of 37.3 lakh; a growth of 5.5% against the Q4 AIR numbers. Nai Dunia + Nav Dunia has seen a tremendous growth last year. The newspapers have combined AIR of 16.15 lakh in the state compared to 14.99 lakh in the previous quarter. Patrika has seen a marginal growth of 3% in IRS Q1 2011 over the last quarter.
177
520 344
513 375
491 432
1,000
485 456
928
880
982
1,285
3,730
Gujarat
5,000 Gujarat
4,725 3,816 3311
4,723
4,762
4,604
4,561
4,506
4,460
4,472
4,420
4,449
3544
3566
3579
4,365
3435
3,590
3,601
3,568
3,391
3229
3,750
3294
3360
3366
3,377
3,234
3,303
3507
2,500
1,250
0 2007R1 2007R2 2008 R1 2008 R2 2009 R1 2009 R2 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1
Gujarat Samachar Sandesh Divya Bhaskar
Good quarter for dailies in Gujarat, Gujarat Samachar grew marginally Seven out of top-10 dailies in the state have registered growth in IRS Q1 2011. Gujarat Samachar has maintained its top spot. Divya Bhaskar has seen growth in the IRS Q1 2011. It has recorded an AIR of 35.34 lakh compared to 35.07 lakh in the previous quarter. Sandesh has seen a decline of 2.1% over last quarter readership. The Times of India registered 15.1% growth in the state. It has recorded an AIR of 3.27 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 2.84 lakh in the last quarter.
3,121
3,127
3,232
3534
10
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
8,000
7,353
7,239
7,135 6,104
7,026 6,379
6,571 5,823
6,538 5,736
4,000
2,000
6,363 5,694
6,000
5,744
5,761
6,593 6,001
6,805 6,121
451
417
401
401
374
0 2007R2 2008 R1 2008 R2 2009 R1 2009 R2 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1
Rajasthan Patrika
Dainik Bhaskar
364
Dainik Navjyoti
Rajasthan Patrika still the leader but losing readers Rajasthan Patrika lost 1.55 lakh readers in IRS Q1 2011. Dainik Bhaskar has not been able to hold its readers. Its current AIR is 63.12 lakh compared to 63.79 lakh a marginal decline against the previous quarter. Dainik Navjyoti has an AIR of 4.95 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 4.44 lakh in the previous quarter. The Times of India grew marginally with an AIR of 2.26 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 2.11 lakh in previous quarter.
396
417
444
495
6,871 6,312
11
Punjab
1,400 Punjab
1,200
1131 1,183 1,095 1152 1,067 990 (All Figures in 000s) 1150 1,026 958 828 1110 1,119 969 893 1074 1,046 929 714 1078 991 1070 965 1035 974 869 834 849 1005 1,027 862
565
802
819
800 600
265
810
1,000
1100 1,018 891 773
400 200 0
2007R2
2008 R1
2008 R2
2009 R1
2009 R2
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
2011 Q1
Punjab Kesari
Jag Bani
Dainik Jagran
Dainik Bhaskar
The dailies growth decline in state, but Punjabi daily Ajit grew marginally The Q1 was not good for Punjab dailies as seven out of top-10 dailies lost there readers. The state is led by Punjabi daily Ajit, which has managed to retain its readers in this quarter. Its AIR is 11.23 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 11.18 lakh in the last quarter. IRS 2011 has brought a big change as circulation of Punjabi daily Jag Bani has replaced Punjab Kesri. Jag Bani has registered a growth of 6.4% in this quarter and taken its AIR at 10.27 lakh compared to 9.65 lakh in the previous quarter. Whereas Punjab Kesri AIR is 10.05 lakh compared to 10.7 lakh in the previous quarter. Dainik Bhaskar has managed to add readers this quarter. It has recorded an AIR of 8.62 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 8.49 lakh in the previous quarter. The readership of Dainik Jagran is on decline as it has lost 6.7% readers in the current survey. Hindustan Times has also lost 8.7% readers in this quarter.
Source: SBICAP Securities Research, IRS 2011 Q1, Company 12
764
Haryana
Danik Bhaskar declines by 4% but still the market leader Dainik Bhaskar continues to be Haryanas No.1 Hindi daily. Its current AIR is 13.33 lakh compared to 13.89 lakh in the last quarter. Punjab Kesri has seen a decline of 5.6% in the current quarter. Dainik Jagran has recorded an AIR of 9.28 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 10.02 lakh in the previous quarter. The Times of India has lost its readership by more than 11% in the Q1 survey. It has recorded an AIR of 1.19 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 2.16 lakh in previous quarter and 1.61 lakh in Q1 2010. Hindustan Times has replaced The Times of India to become the largest read English daily in Haryana.
Source: SBICAP Securities Research, IRS 2011 Q1, Company 13
Chhattisgarh and Chandigarh

Chhattisgarh
1200
1,056 833 895
911
886
1,119
1,095
1,097
728
1,021
722
1,116
818
771
1,016 771
1000 800 600 400 200 0
1,021 776 851
971 808
887
865
819
966
2011 Q1
170 93
2011 Q1
789
745
2007R2
2008 R1
2008 R2
2009 R1
687
2009 R2
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
Dainik Bhaskar
Nava Bharat (Mah/Chh)
Hari Bhoomi
Dainik Bhaskar No.1 in state but lost 5% Dainik Bhaskar in the IRS Q1 2011 has lost 5% of its readers and recorded an AIR of 9.66 lakh compared to 10.16 lakh in the previous quarter. Nava Bharat grew by 2.7% in the current quarter in Maharshtra and Chhattisgarh.
Chandigarh
250
239
208
199
182
197
188 125
218
180
100
95
171
182
792
95
85
0 2007R2 2008 R1 2008 R2 2009 R1 2009 R2 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 Dainik Bhaskar The Tribune
68
72
84
63
94
89
893
14
dominates
UTTAR PRADESH
15
Uttar Pradesh
UP
10,000
9,418
9,158
9,192
9,142
9,065
9,067
8,945
8,847
8,938
7,500
2,500
0 2007R2 2008 R1 2008 R2 2009 R1 2009 R2 2010 Q1 2010 Q2

Hindustan
2,034
2,149
2,191
2,312
2,353
2,599
2,919
2010 Q3
3,189
5,000
2010 Q4
6,831 3,526
2011 Q1
Dainik Jagran
Amar Ujala
Dainik Jagran leads UP, however declines by 1.4% The largest Hindi speaking state, Uttar Pradesh has seen six out of top-10 dailies flourishing in the IRS Q1 2011. Dainik Jagran, the No.1 daily of Uttar Pradesh, maintained the status quo in IRS Q4 2010 but seen a decline of 1.4% in the current survey. Its current AIR is at 88.15 lakh compared to 89.38 lakh in previous quarter. Hindustan has maintained its high double-digit growth rate on QoQ basis. It has recorded an AIR of 36.76 lakh in IRS Q1 2011 compared to 31.89 lakh in the previous quarter. The Times of India and I-Next have witnessed decline in readership in the state. Though Hindustan Times has a growth of more than 9% in its readers.
6,946 3,676
6,080
6,138
6,165
6,278
6,381
6,517
6,525
6,749
8,815
16
Other states
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
8,000
7,802
7,360
7,396
7,553
6,704
6,767
6,000
6,627
6,788
7,103
4,550
4,572
7,305 1,946 4,511

2011 Q1
4,145
3,983
3,858
3,878
2,435
2,440
2,423
2,226
2,309
2,221
2,182
2,059
2,000
3,774
3,992
4,107
4,000
0 2007R2 2008 R1 2008 R2 2009 R1 Lokmat 2009 R2 Daily Sakal 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4
Punya Nagari
Maharashtra mixed growth for dailies, Lokmat losses 3.3% Five out of top-10 dailies register growth in AIR in the state. Though three out of top-5 dailies, Lokmat lost 3.3%, Daily Sakal and Punya Nagari also saw a marginal decline in readers in the IRS Q1 2011. Of the top-5 papers only Marathi newspaper Pudhari and English daily The Times of India were able to strengthen there position. Its current AIR is 20.5 lakh compared to 20.04 lakh in IRS Q4 2010.
1,810
17
Other states
Andhra Pradesh readership declines
The IRS Q1 2011 has not been much exciting for the newspaper publications in Andhra Pradesh. With an AIR of 1.16 crore for any Telugu dailies in IRS Q1 2011, readership have fallen by 2.45% in Q1 2011 compared to Q1 2010 and has declined by 2% on QoQ basis. Eenadu remains the most read Telugu daily in the country, garnering an AIR of 59.91 lakh. The daily has seen a marginal growth of 0.81% in IRS Q1 2011. Sakshi, the second largest read daily, has also seen a growth in AIR from 45.64 lakh in Q1 2010 to 50.42 lakh in the latest quarter, a hike of 10.47% are the only newspaper to maintain the consistent growth throughout the year. Kerala readership flat on QoQ basis, up 6.2% on YoY basis With an addition of 10.99 lakh new readers, Malayalam dailies have seen a growth of 6.20% in readership in IRS Q1 2011 compared to IRS Q1 2010 results. However, on QoQ basis it has been flat. Tamil Nadu readership declines on YoY basis but up 3% on QoQ basis With an overall decline of 5.39% in AIR, the top-6 Tamil dailies have reported negative trends as per the IRS Q1 2011 data. However, on YoY basis the readership has grown by 3%.
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Indian Readership Survey (IRS) Q1 2011

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