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Politics - SKFTA
Politics - SKFTA
1NC ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 ***Uniqueness ........................................................................................................................................................................ 5 SKFTA Yes........................................................................................................................................................................... 6 SKFTA Yes: Markups Prove ................................................................................................................................................ 8 SKFTA Yes: Coming Fast .................................................................................................................................................... 9 SKFTA Yes: Top Of Docket ............................................................................................................................................... 10 SKFTA Yes: TAA ............................................................................................................................................................... 11 A2: TAA Blocks Passage ...................................................................................................................................................... 13 SKFTA Yes: Close ............................................................................................................................................................. 14 SKFTA Yes: Korea ............................................................................................................................................................. 15 ***Internal Links ................................................................................................................................................................... 16 SKFTA Political Capital Key ............................................................................................................................................... 17 SKFTA GOP KEY .............................................................................................................................................................. 18 OBAMA GETS CREDIT/BLAME ........................................................................................................................................... 19 OBAMA PUSH ...................................................................................................................................................................... 21 CAPITAL KEY ....................................................................................................................................................................... 22 A2: WINNERS WIN ............................................................................................................................................................... 23 ***Links ................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 Link SPS Unpopular ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 Link SPS Political Capital ................................................................................................................................................ 27 Link SPS Unpopular Lobbies ....................................................................................................................................... 28 Link Constellation Congress ........................................................................................................................................... 29 ***Impacts............................................................................................................................................................................. 31 2NC DA Outweighs ............................................................................................................................................................... 32 NK SKFTA Solves Korea War............................................................................................................................................ 33 NK China Escalation .......................................................................................................................................................... 34 NK CBW Impact ................................................................................................................................................................. 35 2NC Asian Leadership .......................................................................................................................................................... 36 2NC Regionalism .................................................................................................................................................................. 37 Asian Regionalism SKFTA Key.......................................................................................................................................... 39 SKFTA Turns Case Hegemony.......................................................................................................................................... 40 SKFTA Turns Case Competitiveness ................................................................................................................................ 41 SKFTA Turns Case Econ ................................................................................................................................................... 42 SKFTA Turns Case Innovation .......................................................................................................................................... 43 SKFTA Turns Case Warming............................................................................................................................................. 44 ***AFF Answers ................................................................................................................................................................... 44 SKFTA - No ........................................................................................................................................................................... 45 SKFTA No .......................................................................................................................................................................... 47 SKFTA No: Public Opposition ............................................................................................................................................ 48 SKFTA No: Vote Count ...................................................................................................................................................... 49 SKFTA No: TAA ................................................................................................................................................................. 50 SKFTA No: Korea .............................................................................................................................................................. 51 SKFTA No: Obama Not Pushing ....................................................................................................................................... 53 Aff SPS Plan Popular ...................................................................................................................................................... 54 AFF Constellation Link Congress Supports ................................................................................................................. 56 AFF Constellation Link Bipart Support ......................................................................................................................... 57 Link Turns - General ............................................................................................................................................................. 58 Winners Win .......................................................................................................................................................................... 59 Political Capital Not Key ........................................................................................................................................................ 61 Political Capital Not Key Ext.................................................................................................................................................. 62 IMPACT D: US-SK RELATIONS (General) .......................................................................................................................... 63 1
Politics - SKFTA
RELATS D: AT CHINESE AGGRESSION ........................................................................................................................ 64 RELATS D: AT -- SK ECON................................................................................................................................................. 65 IMPACT D: AT -- ECON IMPACT ......................................................................................................................................... 66 AT: Trade .............................................................................................................................................................................. 67 AT: Alliance ........................................................................................................................................................................... 68 AT: Korean War..................................................................................................................................................................... 69 AT: Contain China ................................................................................................................................................................. 70 AT: Economy ......................................................................................................................................................................... 71 AT: Clean Tech ..................................................................................................................................................................... 72 AT: Democracy...................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Politics - SKFTA
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A. SKFTA will pass GOP cant organize opposition, Obama push key Reuters, 7/15 (Jason Reed, Doug Palmer, 7/15/11, Obama urges compromise to ease way for trade deals,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/15/us-usa-debt-obama-trade-idUSTRE76E4JC20110715) I've got three trade deals, sitting ready to go. These are all trade deals that Republicans told me were their top priorities. They told me this would be one of the best job creators we could have," Obama said at a news conference "And yet it's still being held up because some folks don't want to provide Trade Adjustment Assistance to people who may be displaced as a consequence of trade. Surely we can come up with a compromise to solve those problems," he said. Trade Adjustment Assistance is a nearly 50-year-old program that provides retraining and
income assistance to help workers who have lost their jobs because of foreign competition. Congress has modified the program over the years, most
recently in 2009 when it was expanded to cover additional workers and provide more generous healthcare assistance. The new benefits expired early this year when many newly elected Tea Party conservatives objected to the approximately $1 billion annual cost of the expanded program. Obama administration officials warned Republicans in May the White House would not send the trade deals to Congress for a vote until there was deal to renew the expired TAA benefits. The administration and key lawmakers in the Senate and House of Representatives struck a bipartisan compromise on a slimmed-down version of the 2009 TAA reforms, but no deal was
Democrats fear Republicans will block a vote on the program and so have insisted that Obama put the TAA package into the implementing legislation for the South Korea agreement, where it would be protected against any amendments. However, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and some other party members have threatened to vote against the Korea trade deal if it includes TAA. White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley told the U.S.-Korea Business Council Thursday evening that Republicans had not offered any "credible" plan for ensuring consideration of the three trade deals and TAA. "We can no longer wait. If there's no agreement on an alternative approach in the very near future, we will move forward to seek passage of the FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with TAA" included, Daley said.
reached on how Congress would consider the legislation.
C. POLITICAL CAPITAL KEY TO SKFTA PASSAGE. GREEN 10. [11/1 -- Michael, senior advisor @ the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Echoes of the past haunt G-20 -http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2927756] Fortunately, President Obama has backed
his trade negotiators by declaring his desire to see the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement approved by the end of this year, but that is the easy part . Its passage will require him to exhibit leadership by side-stepping some of his own in the Democratic caucus and working with (probably) a majority Republican House. This will take a lot of political capital. The fact that the White House still talks about exports
rather than trade leaves some worrisome questions about how much the administration really understands and is committed to this goal.
Politics - SKFTA
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D. SKFTA is key to alliance and asian stability failure results in alliance collapse Hwang and Kim 2005 ([Balbina Y. (Policy Analyst for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center) Anthony B (Research Associate in the Center for International
Trade and Economics, at The Heritage Foundation) Beyond the U.S.South Korea Alliance: Reinvigorating Economic Relations, Backgrounder #1853, May 18, http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/bg1853.cfm Recently, increasing
anxiety about the future of the U.S.Republic of Korea alliance has raised concerns in both Washington and Seoul. Yet the two allies have more in common today than ever before in a relationship that has endured for more than 50 years. This
includes shared values of open markets, free trade, respect for the rule of law, and demo-cratic principles. With South Koreas development into one of East Asias most vibrant market-oriented democracies, its economic relationship with the United States has steadily grown stronger, becoming one of the most important pillars supporting the alliance. One of todays most prominent issues is the possibility of reaching a free trade agreement (FTA). Although the ongoing FTA review process will not automatically result in FTA negotiations, it will pro-vide insights into the obstacles to bilateral trade and lay the foundation for a future trade agreement.[1] Washington and Seoul should seize this opportunity to examine thoroughly the range of trade issues that exist between the two countries and to develop solutions. Regardless of whether or not an FTA is determined to be feasible at this time, mutual acceptance and resolution of challenges in the trading relationship will lead to a more positive and productive future for the United States and Repub-lic of Korea (ROK); therefore, the possibility of launching formal FTA
the United States and South Korea have enjoyed a strong alliance that is considered one of the pillars of stability and security in Northeast Asia. While the alliance has provided the basis of a broad and mutually beneficial economic partner-ship for the past half-century, many Americans might be
negotiations should be vig-orously pursued. The Current Status of U.S.ROK Economic Relations Since the inception of a mutual security treaty in 1953, surprised to learn that Korea actually entered into the Treaty of Peace, Amity, Commerce and Navigation with the United States in 1882. This was Koreas first treaty with a Western power, and during this long and sometimes rocky relation-ship, the two allies have come together in coopera-tion when strategic interests have converged.[2] The United States has played a critical role in the South Korean economy since the Korean War, but the bilateral economic relationship has steadily equalized in
recent years, with bilateral trade expanding dramatically in the past 20 years. In 2004, total trade between the two countries exceeded $70 billion, a 120 percent increase from 1990.[3]South Korea has the worlds 11th largest econ-omy, and the United States is its second largest export market, accounting for nearly 20 percent of its total exports in 2004 (more than 6 percent of South Koreas GDP).[4] Major exports to the United States include electrical and general machinery, cel-lular phones, textiles, and steel. In turn, South Korea is Americas seventh largest export market, importing such goods as semiconductors, machin-ery, aircraft, agricultural products, and beef. In 2003, South Korea was the United States fifth larg-est market for agricultural products and third larg-est beef market.[5]Bilateral trade in services has grown robustly as well. The United States is a major supplier of pri-vate services to the South Korean economy and ran a $4 billion surplus in 2003.[6] American companies have established a substantial presence in South Korea, with marked increases in foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years. Over the past decade, American investments totaled nearly $30 billion, with FDI from the U.S. reaching a new record of $4.7 billion in 2004 alonean astound-ing 280 percent increase from 2003. Today, more than 3,000 U.S. companies operate in South Korea. Why an FTA with the ROK? Enthusiasm for a U.S.ROK FTA has grown steadily in recent years, particularly in South Korea, while American interest has been more cau-tious. In principle, the Bush Administration has been a strong proponent of bilateral trade agree-ments because they are an integral part of U.S. trade strategy to promote competitive liberaliza-tion, both at home and abroad.[7]Comprehensive agreements benefit both partners by injecting new competition into their domestic economies, lowering consumer prices, and shifting factors of production to more efficient uses, leveling the playing field for exporters. While free trade is certainly best pursued globally to minimize barriers and distortions in trade, the slow pace of negotia-tions in the World Trade Organization (WTO) has led many nations to pursue free trade through bilat-eral and regional agreements, allowing countries to customize agreements that meet the needs and con-cerns of individual countries.For the United States, an FTA with South Korea makes immense sense considering the existing areas of economic convergence and complementa-rities and the potential for even greater future gains. As one of Americas top trading partners, with bilat-eral trade exceeding $70 billion in 2004, South Korea currently enjoys relatively free access to the U.S. market while American exporters still face hurdles in South Korea.One of the greatest benefits of an FTA for the United States would be increased opportunity to export to South Korea. A 2001 U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) report predicted that a U.S.ROK FTA would increase annual American exports to South Korea by nearly $20 billon, while South Korean exports to the United States would rise by $10 billion.[8]The ITC study concluded that the largest gains in American exports would be in agricultural products such as dairy and meat prod-ucts. South Korea, which imports over $2 billion in U.S. farm products annually, is Americas fifth larg-est export market for agricultural goods. An FTA would provide greater
access to agricultural goods by eliminating many of the strict non-tariff barriers.Official and private studies on the likely economic impact of an FTA conclude that it would benefit pro-ducers and consumers in both countries. For South Korea, increasing participation in trade agreements is not just beneficial, but may be necessary in order to achieve its stated goal of raising annual per capita income to $20,000 by 2010. Partially due to its scar-city of natural resources and the economys heavy reliance on external trade, which accounts for nearly 70 percent of GDP, South Korea will not realize this goal unless exports grow by 12 percent annually.[9] Significantly,
the benefits of a U.S.ROK FTA would go beyond promoting free trade, increasing economic benefits, and bolstering the broader bilateral relationship. Agreement and cooperation on economic issues provide a strong basis from which to reinforce collaboration in the political and security arenas. An FTA would undoubtedly reinvigorate and strengthen the dynamic and comprehensive U.S.ROK alliance, which has been the cornerstone of peace and stability in Northeast Asia for
more than 50 years. Although a broad consensus on the benefits of a U.S.ROK FTA has existed since the idea was first floated in the mid-1980s, daunting obstacles have impeded implementation. While some of these challenges are structural, lack of political will and lack of support on both sides of the Pacific have hampered any real progress toward initiating seri-ous negotiations. The American and South Korean business communities are enthusiastic about an FTA, but official support in Washington has been muted, due not only to specific markets such as agriculture, which is likely to be a highly contentious issue, but also to the view that South Korea needs to do
more with existing agreements and regulations. Seouls diffi-culty in passing the ROKChile FTA, which took almost a year to ratify, does not bode well for future South Korean trade agreements. In particular, growing popular nationalism in response to the opening of South Korean markets has caused concern in Washington. While national-ism itself is not necessarily a negative trend, in South Korea the tone is worrisomely tied to anti-foreign sentiment, including a popular backlash against for-eign investments. One trade area in which popular nationalism has overtaken the debate is the South Korean movie industry, which maintains a screen quota limiting the screening of foreign movies on the basis that South Korean culture must be protected in order to thrive. Tensions over this quota remain a primary stumbling block for the conclusion of the bilateral investment treaty.[11] While the Bush Administration is skeptical about the near-term possibility of an FTA, support is stron-ger in the U.S. Congress. In May 2001, Senator Max Baucus (DMT) introduced a bill (S. 944) authoriz-ing FTA negotiations with the ROK, marking the second time that he sponsored such legislation.[12] Regrettably, because of the lack of broader support in Congress and in the Administration, it did not lead to the launching of formal negotiations. Nevertheless, the United States should consider negotiating a free trade agreement with South Korea in the near future, although several areas of concern must be addressed before formal negotia-tions can begin. As the 2001 ITC report identified, the South Korean regulatory regime is still a signif-icant barrier to U.S. exports, along with other non-tariff measures such as product and safety stan-dards and pharmaceutical testing requirements. Seoul needs to address such issues before any future agreement is even considered. To create and build positive momentum for an FTA with South Korea, the United States should consider: Urging the South Korean government to dem-onstrate its political will by tackling issues such as U.S. beef imports and the screen quota. Initiating action on these two issues in particular would establish that South Korea is serious about seeking an FTA with the United States. Expeditiously lifting the ban on U.S. beef imports ahead of Japan would generate many supporters for the FTA among U.S. poli-cymakers, given that the issue is being watched carefully at the highest levels of the Bush Administration and Congress. Ending the screen quota would also send a strong signal that the political leadership in Seoul is strong enough to stand against special-interest groups seeking specialized protection.[13] Working to elicit stronger and more con-certed support from policymakers and the business communities in both countries. The American and South Korean business communi-ties have been moving gradually to organize a more effective campaign to promote an agree-ment and inform the general public about the potential benefits of an FTA. More important, growing numbers in Congress also understand the critical importance of the bilateral economic relationship. However, it would be equally important to have an influential advocate in the Bush Administration. Such orchestrated support to build positive momentum for a U.S.ROK FTA would increase prospects for formal negotiations. Encouraging the ongoing process of reform in South Korea. The American pursuit of an FTA with South Korea should incorporate the broader goal of upgrading South Koreas eco-nomic system. While a bold sense of entrepre-neurship has indisputably played a key role in South Koreas tremendous economic success, the economic system remains shackled by bar-riers that still limit entrepreneurial opportuni-ties. The 2005 edition of the Index of Economic Freedom, an annual study by The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal, lists South Korea as the 45th freest economy out of 155 economies surveyed.[14] As Asias third larg-est economy, South Koreas economy has the fundamentalssuch as its large supplies of capital, highly educated labor forces, modern infrastructure, and stable legal systemall in place. What is missing is strong political
leader-ship to address more difficult issues that keep South Korea from being a truly free economy. Conclusion Given the challenges posed by several conten-tious trade issues, a U.S.ROK FTA in the near future may be an overly ambitious goal. Neverthe-less, it is undoubtedly in the interests of both coun-tries to work toward a trade agreement. The American National Association of Manufacturers has identified South Korea as a one of the top five candidate countries for a future trade agree-ment.[15] If an agreement is to be reached, however, this positive assessment must be accompanied by concerted efforts in Washington and Seoul. Both
the United States and South Korea have much to gain from reinvigorating their economic relations. Seeking an FTA will reinforce the alliance by establishing a positive venue for dialogue and ultimately serve the national interests of both countries.
Politics - SKFTA
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E. Korean conflict causes every impact Hayes and Green, 10
*Victoria University AND **Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute (Peter and Michael, -The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, 1/5, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)
The consequences of failing to address the proliferation threat posed by the North Korea developments, and related political and economic issues, are serious, not only for the Northeast Asian region but for the whole international community. At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading to the resumption of Korean War hostilities. On the Korean Peninsula itself, key population centres are well within short or medium range missiles. The whole of Japan is likely to come within North Korean missile range. Pyongyang has a population of over 2 million, Seoul (close to the North Korean border) 11 million, and Tokyo over 20 million. Even a limited nuclear exchange would result in a holocaust of unprecedented proportions. But the catastrophe within the region would not be the only outcome. New research indicates that even a limited nuclear war in the region would rearrange our global climate far more quickly than global warming. Westberg draws attention to new studies modelling the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange involving approximately 100 Hiroshima-sized 15 kt bombs2 (by comparison it should be noted that the United States currently deploys warheads in the range 100 to 477 kt, that is, individual warheads equivalent in yield to a range of 6 to 32 Hiroshimas).The studies indicate that the soot from the fires produced would lead to a decrease in global temperature by 1.25 degrees Celsius for a period of 6-8 years.3 In Westbergs view: That is not global winter, but the nuclear darkness will cause a deeper drop in temperature than at any time during the last 1000 years. The temperature over the continents would decrease substantially more than the global average. A decrease in rainfall over the continents would also follow...The period of nuclear darkness will cause much greater decrease in grain production than 5% and it will continue for many years...hundreds of millions of people will die from hunger...To make matters even worse, such amounts of smoke injected into the stratosphere would cause a huge reduction in the Earths protective ozone.4 These, of course, are not the only consequences. Reactors might also be targeted, causing further mayhem and downwind radiation effects, superimposed on a smoking, radiating ruin left by nuclear next-use. Millions of refugees would flee the affected regions. The direct impacts, and the follow-on impacts on the global economy via ecological and food insecurity, could make the present global financial crisis pale by comparison. How the great powers, especially the nuclear weapons states respond to such a crisis, and in particular, whether nuclear weapons are used in response to nuclear first-use, could make or break the global non proliferation and disarmament regimes. There could be many unanticipated impacts on regional and global security relationships5, with subsequent nuclear breakout and geopolitical turbulence, including possible loss-of-control over fissile material or warheads in the chaos of nuclear war, and aftermath chain-reaction affects involving other potential proliferant states. The Korean nuclear proliferation issue is not just a regional threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community.
***Uniqueness
Politics - SKFTA
SKFTA Yes
The house is drafting a bill so that SKFTA will pass. Chicago Tribune 7/5 (7/5/11, "House eyes action on trade bills after setback ",
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-house-eyes-action-on-trade-bills-after-setback20110705,0,1576823.story) A key panel in the House of Representatives plans to start action this week on three long-delayed free trade agreements after a failed attempt last week in the Senate, congressional aides said on Tuesday. The House Ways and Means Committee will meet on Thursday to consider draft legislation for U.S. trade deals with South Korea , Panama and Colombia, the aides said. The Ways and Means panel will work on draft bills that do not include a renewal of federal "trade adjustment assistance ," an aide
said, referring to a retraining program for displaced workers opposed by many Republicans.
Congress is preparing to pass SKFTA. Yonhap News 7/6 (Lee Chi-dong, 7/6/11, " Congress ready for discussions on FTA with S. Korea ",
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/07/07/30/0301000000AEN20110707001000315F.HTML)
The U.S. Congress
looks set to begin a full-scale review of bills later this week on major trade pacts with South Korea, Colombia and Panama, while a proposed renewal of a costly program to help American workers remains a potential deal-breaker. The Democrat-led Senate Finance Committee plans to open a "mock" markup of the draft implementing bills for the free trade agreements (FTAs) on Thursday, according to committee chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) The session, originally supposed to take place a week ago, was canceled due to a Republican boycott. Baucus said in a press release that the new date was set "after consulting with members" of the committee and it would touch on a controversial extension of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program to
minimize the negative impact of trade on U.S. workers. President Barack Obama said he would not submit the bills on the FTAs unless Congress agrees to extend the US$1 billion-a-year TAA program, which expired in 2010. Republican members oppose it amid a partisan budget war. "It is past time to get this package moving. Right now, our
competitors are gaining ground in these vital markets, and jobless Americans in need of opportunities are left waiting while these trade agreements languish ," Baucus said. South Korea's FTA with the European Union took effect last week. He added, "We need to come together to move these three trade agreements and Trade Adjustment Assistance forward because American workers and small businesses simply cannot afford to wait any longer." On Thursday, meanwhile, the House Ways and Means Committee, controlled by
Republicans, is also scheduled to hold a separate discussion session on the draft FTA bills. The TAA issue is not on the agenda, however. Congress holds such a mock markup under the Trade Promotion Authority Act, also known as "fast track" procedures, so that related committees can recommend to the administration the provisions that should be included in the final version of bills. Once the administration sends a final bill, Congress can put it up to only a "yes or no" vote.
SKFTA will be passed by Congress San Antonio Express 7/17 (7/17/11, Deal on trade pacts is a winner,
http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/editorials/article/Deal-on-trade-pacts-is-a-winner-1468096.php)
For too long, politics
has prevented the United States from concluding free-trade agreements with Panama, Colombia and South Korea. With a compromise within reach in negotiations between the White House and congressional Republicans, both sides should seize the moment to set aside partisan differences in the interest of the economy and American leadership. The three trade pacts have
been languishing for years. The biggest trade agreement, with Korea, was negotiated by the Bush administration in 2007. Touting the agreement last December, President Barack
Obama said it would bolster U.S. exports by up to $11 billion and support at least 70,000 American jobs. Despite the benefits to the United States and its trading partners that would accrue from the free-trade agreements, Democrats on Capitol Hill
have blocked their approval. Their objections range from the reasonable, such as concerns about labor rights and equal access for U.S. industries in foreign markets, to the purely political, such as pandering to domestic labor unions. Those issues had largely been resolved.
A bipartisan consensus was building to pass the three agreements. Then in May, the White House announced that President Obama would not submit the agreements to Congress without a longterm expansion of an assistance program for workers displaced by foreign competition. The inclusion of the Trade Adjustment Assistance program in the package unnecessarily complicated the matter, with Republicans questioning its costs and efficacy. Now the White House has agreed to reduce the size of the program and send
U.S. trade competitors aren't sitting still while American politicians dally. The European Union also negotiated a free trade agreement with South Korea in 2007. That agreement actually went into effect on July 1, beginning a process that will put a wide range of American goods and services at a competitive disadvantage in the world's 15th-largest economy. Groups on both sides of the aisle will find fault with the pacts and the trade assistance program compromise. But this is the best chance to finalize agreements that will reassert U.S. commitments to allies and free trade while giving a needed boost to the economy.
the trade deals to Congress for approval.
Politics - SKFTA
SKFTA Yes
Will pass opponents backing down Klingner 5-16 (Bruce, Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia Heritage Foundation, KORUS won't help North Korea, The Hill, 2011,
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/161429-korus-wont-help-north-korea) After years of delay, the South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement (KORUS) is rushing toward bipartisan Congressional approval. The Obama administration will formally submit it to Congress this month, and many previously fierce
Politics - SKFTA
response to concerns among Democrats on issues such as labor rights. The administration has been pushing to get the deals approved by Congress before a recess next month. Senator Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat and Finance committee
chairman, said he wouldn't demand that Obama send a South Korea bill that includes worker aid, as long as Congress renews the program as it approves measures for the three trade agreements.
Politics - SKFTA
Obama administration may send Congress a bill for a South Korea free-trade agreement that includes worker aid "very soon" unless lawmakers present an alternative for renewing the expired program. The Senate Finance Committee supported draft legislation last week for the trade accord over opposition from Republicans, who objected to its extension of Trade Adjustment Assistance. The House Ways and Means Committee endorsed a South Korea bill without the aid attached, and Chairman Dave Camp of Michigan led Republicans in defeating an amendment that would have added the assistance to a Panama trade deal instead. " We can no longer wait," Daley said yesterday at a U.S.- Korea Business Council dinner in Washington. "If there is no agreement on an alternative approach in the very near future, we will move forward to seek passage of the FTA with TAA. There is no time to waste playing politics as usual." Last week's hearings were "mock markups" that let lawmakers give the president their views on free-trade deals before he submits them formally under fast-track rules that prohibit amendments and provide for a yes-or-no vote. Republicans "have yet to present a credible alternative to getting this legislation passed in a timely fashion," Daley said. "If we do not act before the August recess, American businesses will suffer." The Obama administration is pushing for passage of the free-trade agreement and those with Colombia and Panama that were reached under President George W. Bush. Export Boost The South Korea deal would boost U.S. exports by as much as $10.9 billion a year when in full effect, and the accord with Colombia would increase exports by as much as $1.1 billion,
according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. The Trade Adjustment Assistance program augments health and unemployment benefits to workers who lose their jobs because of overseas competition. As part of stimulus legislation in 2009, it was expanded beyond manufacturing to include service workers such as call-center employees. Republicans say renewing the expanded aid would be too costly when lawmakers are struggling to reduce the federal deficit.
Democrats and Republicans are trying to agree on and sign FTAs as soon as possible to make the business community happy. Washington Times 7/7 (Tim Devaney, 7/7/11, " Partisan rift stalling free-trade pacts ",
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/7/partisan-rift-stalling-free-trade-pacts/) Lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Thursday clashed over long-delayed free-trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama, with Republicans balking at an Obama administration demand to attach money for a program to aid American workers as a part of the package. Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee warned they would vote against the trade pacts - the first major free-trade deals to move forward under Mr. Obama - unless funds for the controversial Trade Adjustment Assistance program were also included to protect workers who lose their jobs because of increased imports. But Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee, who last week boycotted a vote on the issue, stood firm against legislation to move forward the South Korea deal, after the majority Democrats included the TAA funding on a straight 13-11 party-line vote. The free-trade deals have strong backing from the business community, and President Obama and top Hill Republicans have cited trade as one area of bipartisan cooperation in the
wake of the 2010 midterm elections. The trade agreements originally were negotiated by the administration of President George W. Bush, but have yet to be officially
Democrats said they were ready to vote in favor of the deals with South Korea and Panama, although some in the party have raised questions about Colombias record on labor rights and protections for union leaders. Republicans, however, have said they would not vote on the deals until all three are ready. U.S. business groups have expressed fears that the trade stalemate will leave the U.S. on the sidelines as the European Union and other rivals rush to open markets with rising economic powers such as South Korea. One thing is perfectly clear: We cannot afford to let these trade agreements languish any longer, Mr. Camp said. The rest of the world is fast moving forward, and we risk losing market share and jobs if we fail to act.
submitted to Congress. Recently, the Obama administration renegotiated the agreements, and
Politics - SKFTA
Top of docket - Committee Setback is only temporary Cohen, 7/1, Richard E. Cohen is a senior congressional reporter for Politico, Cohen also has been an author of numerous books about
Congress. From 2001 until 2010, he was co-author with Michael Barone of The Almanac of American Politics, He was the 1990 winner of the Everett McKinley Dirksen Award for distinguished reporting of Congress. He has served many years as a member of the executive committee of the congressional periodical galleries, and currently is chairman of the committee, Politico.com Some caveats and nuances are present in the Senate meltdown that forced postponement of the committee's handling of the trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama, and extension of the trade-adjustment assistance program for unemployed workers. For one thing, most committee members support the trade agreements, which likely will return soon for Finance action. And the committee found itself as something of a bystander in the ongoing attacks between House Republicans and the Obama Administration.
10
Politics - SKFTA
The South Korea, Colombia and Panama pacts all are covered under fast-track because they were signed before the authority expired in June 2007. TPA has been considered a necessity for
at it down the road as negotiations advance on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. brokering trade deals because it provides some certainty to potential trading partners that Congress wont carve up the agreements. I have made it clear to the president and the White House that TAA should move on its own, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Friday. We expect in the House to move four separate bills,
Without an agreement on procedure between the White House and Congress, the administration will probably send the trade agreements to Capitol Hill with TAA included in the Korean deal because it provides a guarantee that the streamlined program passes.
and I would hope they would heed our advice.
FTAs are close to being passed in Congress. Korea Times 6/29 (6/29/11, Obama clears hurdle to FTAs with S. Korea,
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/06/113_89815.html)
President Barack Obama
has reached a deal with congressional Republicans on the terms of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program, clearing a major obstacle to the ratification of bilateral trade pacts with South Korea, Colombia and Panama, the White House announced Tuesday. "As a result of extensive negotiations, we now have an agreement on the underlying terms for a meaningful renewal of a strengthened TAA," press secretary Jay Carney said in a statement . TAA is designed to provide re-training and health care benefits for workers who lose jobs due to import competition. Obama has said he would not submit the free trade agreements (FTAs) with the three nations before resolving the renewal of the TAA program, which was expanded two years ago and expired in February. The Republicans had refused to agree to extend TAA, citing budget constraints. "The president embraces these critical elements of TAA needed to ensure that workers have the best opportunity to get good jobs that keep them in the middle class. Now it is time to move forward with TAA and with the Korea, Colombia, and Panama trade agreements, which will support tens of thousands of jobs ," Carney added. Senate Finance Committee Chairman
Max Baucus (D-Mont.) said his committee will hold a "mock" markup on Thursday of the bills on the FTAs with the three trading partners that includes the extension of TAA. But it remains unclear how smooth the process will be. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said he would vote against the FTA with South Korea if it includes a renewal of TAA. "Speaking for myself, I've never voted against a trade agreement before. If the administration were to embed a Trade Adjustment Assistance into the Korea trade agreement, I would be voting against it," McConnell said. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) also criticized the TAA deal, calling it "highly partisan." "This highly partisan decision to include TAA in the South Korean FTA implementing bill risks support for this critical job-creating trade pact in the name of a welfare program of questionable benefit at a time when our nation is broke," Hatch said in a statement. He added Obama "should send up our pending trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and Korea and allow for a clean vote."
The South Korea-U.S. FTA, called KORUS FTA, was signed in 2007 under the previous governments of the two sides. The ratification process has been stalled, however, in both nations. Obama, seeking reelection next year, views the KORUS FTA as a tool to expand exports and create jobs in a sluggish economy. The U.S. government's efforts to get it ratified have gained urgency as South Korea struck a deal with the European Union to put a bilateral free trade agreement into effect in July.
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lawmakers amendments are reviewed by the Obama administration, final versions of the trade deals implementing bills will be sent to Congress for up-or-down votes under Trade Promotion authority, often called fasttrack.
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growing momentum toward a deal to restore funding for the Trade-Adjustment Assistance program means the administration "is in a good place" to work with Congress on draft legislation that provides Congress with an opportunity for input before the trade deals are formally submitted for an up-or-down vote. Following continued negotiations over the weekend, differences between the Obama administration and Republican lawmakers have "narrowed substantially" on Trade-Adjustment Assistance, which lost significant resources when some benefits were allowed to expire in February. "We're making good progress. Hopefully we can resolve the few outstanding differences ," Mr. Kirk said before giving a speech to the annual Conference of Mayors. Rep. Kevin Brady (R., Texas), who chairs the Ways and Means trade subcommittee, said last week that the panel would start debating the trade deals this week, suggesting that a broad agreement on trade agenda could be near. However, no debates have been scheduled yet, as the two sides continue to try to hash out a compromise. While the committee doesn't need the
South Korea, Colombia and Panama. But he said administration's blessing to begin the informal discussions, trade officials are expected to participate in the process.
are working daily with our partners in Congress toward the next step in the process, which would be a mock markup of the Korea agreement as well as the other pending deals ," she told Yonhap News Agency. "We meet with our Korean
counterparts regularly to update them on developments here in Washington." The White House said, however, it has yet to secure congressional support for TAA before forwarding the trade pacts to Capitol Hill. We
are still working closely with leaders in the House and the Senate to reach an agreement on TAA, a White House spokesman said in response to the Colombian president's recent comments that the Republicans and Democrats have already struck an agreement on the issue, according to World Trade Online, which specializes in trade news.
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there are enough votes despite opposition Kim 6/24 [Rueters, Jack Kim; June 24; Q+A-Where is the S.Korea, US free trade pact headed?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/24/korea-usa-trade-idUSL3E7HO0AC20110624] South Korea President Lee Myung-bak's government has sent the trade bill to parliament but the assembly has yet to set the date to begin reviewing it. A majority of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) support the deal. Some opposition Democratic Party members oppose it, saying a revision to the deal reached in December damaged the interest of South Korean automakers. The ruling GNP has the number to force it through parliament but does not want to repeat the political
embarrassment caused by a previous attempt to do so. IS THERE ENOUGH SUPPORT ONCE IT COMES TO A VOTE? The December revision addressed concerns by U.S. car makers and auto unions that the original deal had favoured South Korean automakers too heavily. U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk said those changes meant winning approval in Congress would no longer be "horribly difficult". But it still faces stiff opposition, including from the AFL-CIO, the main U.S. labour group. In South Korea, the pact has broad support from the public and from businesses which see it as a chance to enter a greater U.S. market and to buy cheaper imports at home. In addition to
backing from the ruling GNP, some opposition Democratic Party members, who had supported the pact when the former liberal president negotiated it in 2007, are for the deal.
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were very pleased with the amount of positive support we heard related to the agreement," he said. The trade pact passed the Cabinet of South Korea, but it has yet to be
presented to the parliament as the main opposition party is against the accord, claiming that it favors the U.S. In the U.S., the Trade Adjustment Assistance, a federal
the prospect of ratification has risen recently as Washington is making a push for passing the trade bill within this year, along with FTAs with Panama and Colombia. "Secretary Clinton emphasized that passing the KORUS FTA will be beneficial for both countries and that it is one of her highest priorities," said Gaines, adding that U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke is also supportive of ratification of the agreement. "As chairman of AMCHAM, I will do my part to promote and support the early ratification of the KORUS FTA," said Gaines.
program designed to provide re-training and health care benefits for workers, has been hindering the parliamentary ratification process. But The accord, if it takes effect, will boost South Korea's economic growth by 6 percent over the long-term and help create 340,000 new jobs, according to the state-run
South Korea's trade with the U.S., the world's largest economy and its secondlargest trading partner, came to US$84.7 billion last year. Meanwhile, Gaines said that AMCHAM will step up efforts to strengthen relations and cooperation with the South Korean government and business community. "It is clear that the economic and trade relationship between the U.S. and Korea is growing and changing, and it is essential for AMCHAM to grow with these changes," said Gaines
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
South Korea is working to pass KORUS Yonhap News, 7/8 (7/8/11, "Opposition lawmakers call for renegotiation of KORUS FTA," http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/07/09/56/0301000000AEN20110709001200320F.HTML) A group of lawmakers affiliated with South Korea's main opposition party submitted a resolution on Saturday calling for the renegotiation of a free trade deal with the U.S. In the resolution, the 10 lawmakers of the Democratic Party said the free trade pact awaiting parliamentary approval in both countries should be renegotiated in order to reflect a balance of interest. In December, Seoul and Washington agreed on a supplemental agreement to address U.S. concerns over the lopsided auto trade, the biggest hurdle to getting congressional approval for the deal, signed in 2007. South Korea posted a trade surplus of US$9.4 billion with the U.S. in 2010, with two-way trade topping $90 billion, according to data compiled by the Korea International Trade Association. The pact will help South Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. widen by $463 million annually over 10 years, aided by increased exports of automobiles, electronics and textiles , the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy estimated earlier. KORUS will pass despite opposition. Arirang News 7/11 (7/11/11, "GNP To Push for KORUS FTA Ratification in Aug. ", http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=117994&code=Ne3&category=4) The ruling Grand National Party has reconfirmed its decision to pass the ratification bill for the Korea-US free trade agreement during the August extraordinary session. During a supreme council meeting on Monday, GNP floor leader Hwang Woo-yea said the ratification bill is one of many pending legislations that the ruling party must pass during the next session, reconfirming the agreement made by senior party members the day before. The GNP held a meeting on Sunday led by new Chairman Hong Joon-pyo and
decided to approve the trade pact that did not see any progress in the June session. And on Monday morning, a member of the GNP supreme council and the chairman of the trade committee, Nam Kyung-pil, called on opposition party leaders to stop using negative rhetoric in regards to the Korea-US FTA to achieve political gains. Appearing on a radio program, Nam
said that while he will work with lawmakers who oppose the trade deal, opposition parties should come to the talks for a genuine discussion on a way forward . The trade committee chairman's remarks are in response to 10
lawmakers from the main opposition Democratic Party introducing a non-binding resolution on Saturday, which calls for the renegotiation of the FTA with the US, reiterating the DP's position that the balance of the deal has been broken following the additional rounds of negotiations this past December.
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GOP SUPPORT NOT INEVITABLE AVOIDING PARTISAN ISSUES KEY TO ENSURE COOPERATION. KAROL 10. [David, assistant professor of government at American University, After the election: Can Obama find common ground with the GOP
on trade? The Hill -- 10/28]
the chief obstacle to cooperation between the administration and GOP legislators on trade is pervasive mistrust flowing from polarization, which aggravates politicians temptation to posture for short-term partisan advantage. While President Clinton worked with Republicans to liberalize trade via NAFTA and PNTR, partisan mistrust impeded cooperation in the 1990s as well. Then Speaker Gingrich and most GOP legislators did back
Beyond these differences however, Clintons 1997 request for fast track authority. Yet Clintons fast track bid failed in part because dozens of Republicans were reluctant to give him a win of any sort. The following year Gingrich brought up the bill when he knew the votes werent there simply to drive a wedge between Democrats and the business community. So cooperation between Obama and Congressional Republicans on trade policy is
hardly assured. Yet in an era in which the partisan divide looms large it is one area where at least common ground is visible.
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chief spokesman, policy pitchman, fundraiser and negotiator. No Cabinet secretary has emerged as an adequate surrogate. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is seen as a tepid public speaker; Energy Secretary Steven Chu is prone to long, wonky digressions and has rarely gone before the cameras during an oil spill crisis that he is working to end. So, more falls to Obama, reinforcing the Velcro effect: Everything sticks to him. He has opined on virtually everything in the hundreds of public statements
he has made: nuclear arms treaties, basketball star LeBron James' career plans; Chelsea Clinton's wedding. Few audiences are off-limits. On Wednesday, he taped a spot on ABC's "The View," drawing a rebuke from Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Edward G. Rendell, who deemed the appearance unworthy of the presidency during tough times. " Stylistically he creates some of those problems," Eddie Mahe, a Republican political strategist, said in an interview. "His favorite pronoun is 'I.' When you position yourself as being all things to
all people, the ultimate controller and decision maker with the capacity to fix anything, you set yourself up to be blamed when it doesn't get fixed or things happen." A new White House strategy is to forgo talk of big policy changes that are easy to
ridicule. Instead, aides want to market policies as more digestible pieces. So, rather than tout the healthcare package as a whole, advisors will talk about smaller parts that may be more appealing and understandable such as barring insurers from denying coverage based on preexisting conditions. But at this stage, it may be late in the game to downsize either the president or his agenda . Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) said: "The man came in promising change. He has a higher profile than some presidents because of his youth, his race and the way he came to the White House with the message he brought in. It's naive to believe he can step back and have some Cabinet secretary be the face of the oil spill. The buck stops with his office."
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OBAMA PUSH
Only Obama involvement gets plan passed General Hamel et. al, 09 Michael A., Lt. General (retired), USAF (3/10/10, The Committee for US Space Leadership, MEMORANDUM
FOR THE PRESIDENT: Americas Leadership in Space, http://spacepolicyonline.com/pages/images/stories/Memo_For_the_President_March_10_20091.pdf) Just as the mastery and use of the maritime and air domains helped define the course of world affairs and the histories of the 19th and 20th centuries, so too mastery of space will be a defining feature of the 21st century. Loss of our strategic advantage in space would have acute consequences, both symbolic and substantive, on U.S. standing in the world and erode capabilities crucial to the nations security and prosperity in the decades ahead. We know the formula for success in space. It takes the right skills, hard work, and effective management, starting at the top. Strong White House leadership is essential to putting the national space
enterprise on an effective new course, which in turn will be highly supportive and synergistic with your broader agenda, priorities, and goals for the nation. Nearly fifty years ago, a new President challenged America to become the
world leader in space, to send Americans to the moon and return them safely to Earth within a decade. America succeeded in achieving President Kennedys vision, and the nation has benefited beyond imagination from meeting that challenge. America is at a new crossroads, and we need
our new President to inspire the nation with a space vision and government actions to assure our continued leadership in the 2s1t century.
Plan requires presidential involvement means Obama gets the blame Marcia Smith 11 Smith is President of the Space and Technology Policy Group, LLC, which specializes in news, information and analysis of civil,
military and commercial space programs and other technology areas. From March 2006-March 2009, Ms. Smith was Director of the Space Studies Board (SSB) at the National Research Council (NRC), Last Man on Moon and Space Policy Expert Dismayed at State of U.S. Human Spaceflight Program 5/25 http://spacepolicyonline.com/pages/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1591:last-man-on-moon-and-space-policy-expertdismayed-at-state-of-us-human-spaceflight-program&catid=67:news&Itemid=27 Logsdon recounted the key points of his new book, John F. Kennedy and the Race to the Moon, emphasizing that JFK was not a space visionary, but a President coping with Cold War realities. In his op-ed for the Orlando Sentinel today, Logsdon suggested that JFK could be a role model for President Obama in remaining closely involved in space program decisions. "If President Obama hopes for a positive space legacy, he needs to emulate John Kennedy; without sustained presidential leadership,
NASA will continue to lack the focus required for a space effort producing acknowledged international leadership and national pride in what the United States accomplishes," Logsdon wrote.
Executive Controls Space Policy Obama Push Is Required G. Ryan Faith 10 G. Ryan Faith is an independent technology consultant and Adjunct Fellow for Space Initiatives at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, (CSIS). President Obamas Vision for Space Exploration (part 2) 4/26 http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1616/1 One thing that President Obama can learn from the fate of his predecessors plan for space exploration is that continued,
periodic political support at the Presidential level is of great importanceor is perceived to be within the space community because of the sentiment that the national space exploration program is a tool to be used by and within the prerogative of the executive. Should international cooperation play a greater role in American plans in the near future, engagement by the President and State Department on behalf of NASA will be quite valuable.
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CAPITAL KEY
Ideology doesnt outweigh presidential success dictates votes Lebo, 2010 (Matthew J. Lebo, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University, and Andrew O'Geen, PhD
Candidate, Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University, Journal of Politics, The Presidents Role in the Partisan Congressional Arena forthcoming, google) Keeping this centrality in mind, we
use established theories of congressional parties to model the presidents role as an actor within the constraints of the partisan environment of Congress . We also find a role for the president's approval
level, a variable of some controversy in the presidential success literature. Further, we are interested in both the causes and consequences of success. We develop a theory that views the presidents record as a key component of the party politics that are so important to both the passage of legislation and the electoral outcomes that follow . Specifically, theories of
partisan politics in Congress argue that cross-pressured legislators will side with their parties in order to enhance the collective reputation of their party (Cox and McCubbins 1993, 2005), but no empirical research has answered the question: "of what are collective reputations made?" We demonstrate that it is the success of the president not parties in Congress that predicts rewards and punishments to parties in Congress. This allows us to neatly fit the president into
existing theories of party competition in Congress while our analyses on presidential success enable us to fit existing theories of party politics into the literature on the presidency.
Studies prove issues spilloverthe president is key. Eshbaugh-Soha, M. (2008). Policy Priorities and Presidential Success in Congress. Conference Papers -- American
Political Science Association, 1-26. Retrieved from Political Science Complete database.
Presidential-congressional relations are a central topic in the scientific study of politics. The literature is clear that a handful of variables strongly influence the likelihood of presidential success on legislation. Of these variables, party control of Congress is most important (Bond and Fleisher 1990), in that conditions of unified government increase, while conditions of divided government decrease presidential success, all else equal. The presidents approval ratings (Edwards 1989) and a favorable honeymoon (Dominguez 2005) period may also increase presidential success on legislation. In addition, presidential speeches that reference policies or roll-call votes tend to increase the presidents legislative success rate (Barrett 2004; Canes-Wrone 2001; Eshbaugh-Soha 2006). In their landmark examination of presidential success in Congress, Bond and Fleisher (1990, 230) identify yet
another condition that may facilitate presidential success on legislation when they write that the presidents greatest influence over policy comes from the agenda he pursues and the way it is packaged. Moreover, the policies that the president prioritizes have a major impact on the presidents relationship with Congress. Taken together, these assertions strongly suggest that the policy content of the presidents legislative agendawhat policies the president prioritizes before Congressshould be a primary determinant of presidential success in Congress.
Capital determines agenda above all else Light 99 Senior Fellow at the Center for Public Service (Paul, the Presidents Agenda, p. 34)
In chapter 2, I will consider just how capital affects the basic parameters of the domestic agenda. Though the internal resources are important contributors to timing and size, capital remains the cirtical factor. That conclusion will become essential in understanding the domestic agenda. Whatever the Presidents personal expertise, character, or skills, capital is the most important resource. In the past, presidential scholars have focused on individual factors in discussing White House decisions, personality being the dominant factor. Yet, given low levels in presidential capital, even the most positive and most active executive could make little impact. A president can be skilled, charming, charismatic, a veritable legislative wizard, but if he does not have the basic congressional strength, his domestic agenda will be severely restricted capital affects both the number and the content of the Presidents priorities. Thus, it is capital that determines whether the President will have the opportunity to offer a detailed domestic program, whether he will be restricted to a series of limited initiatives and vetoes. Capital sets the basic parameters of the agenda, determining the size of the agenda and guiding the criteria for choice. Regardless of the Presidents personality, capital is the central force behind the domestic agenda.
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One of the "realities" that Obama has to face is that American politics is not a winner-take-all system. It is pluralistic vertically and horizontally, and getting anything done politically, even when the President and the Congress are controlled by the same party, requires groups to negotiate, bargain and engage in serious horse trading. No one takes orders from the President who can only use moral or political suasion and promises of future support for policies or projects. The system was in fact deliberately engineered to prevent overbearing majorities from conspiring to tyrannise minorities. The system is not only institutionally diverse and plural,
the planet. Clearly, he is the proverbial "Black Knight on a White Horse." but socially and geographically so. As James Madison put it in Federalist No 10, one of the foundation documents of republicanism in America, basic institutions check other basic institutions, classes and interests check other classes and interests, and regions do the same. All are grounded in their own power bases which they use to fend off challengers. The coalitions change from issue to issue, and there is no such thing as party discipline which translated, means you do what I the leader say you do. Although Obama is fully aware of the political limitations of the office which he holds, he is fully aware of the vast stock of political capital which he currently has in the bank and he evidently plans to enlarge it by drawing from the stock held by other groups, dead and alive. He is clearly drawing heavily from the caparisoned cloaks of Lincoln and Roosevelt. Obama seems to believe that by playing the all-inclusive, multipartisan, non-ideological card, he can get most of his programmes through the Congress without having to spend capital by using vetoes, threats of veto, or appeals to his 15 million strong constituency in cyberspace (the latent "Obama Party").
Link outweighs the link turn on timeframe Silber 07 [PhD Political Science & Communication focus on the Rhetoric of Presidential Policy-Making Prof of Poli
Sci Samford, [Marissa, WHAT MAKES A PRESIDENT QUACK?, Prepared for delivery at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August 30th-September 2nd, 2007, UNDERSTANDING LAME DUCK STATUS THROUGH THE EYES OF THE MEDIA AND POLITICIANS] Important to the discussion of political capital is whether or not it can be replenished over a term. If a President expends political capital on his agenda, can it be replaced ? Light suggests that capital declines over time public approval consistently falls: midterm losses occur (31). Capital can be rebuilt, but only to a limited extent. The decline of capital makes it difficult to access information, recruit more expertise and maintain energy. If a lame duck President can be defined by a loss of political capital, this paper helps determine if such capital can be replenished or if a lame duck can accomplish little. Before determining this, a definition of a lame duck President must be developed.
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WINNERS DONT WIN ON CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES THE HILL IS TOO POLARIZED. MANN 10. [Thomas, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, American Politics on the Eve of the Midterm Elections Brookings Institute -- November]
That perception
of failure has been magnified by the highly contentious process by which Obamas initiatives have been adopted in Congress. America has in recent years developed a highly polarised party system, with striking
ideological differences between the parties and unusual unity within each. But these parliamentary-like parties operate in a governmental system in which majorities are unable readily to put their programmes in place. Republicans adopted a strategy of consistent, unified, and aggressive opposition to every major component of the Presidents agenda , eschewing negotiation, bargaining and compromise, even on matters of great national import. The Senate filibuster has been the indispensable weapon in killing, weakening, slowing, or discrediting all major legislation proposed by the Democratic majority.
WINNERS LOSE FOR OBAMA LOSES THE SPIN GAME. BAKER 10. [Peter, foreign policy reporter, author of Kremlin Rising: Vladimir Putin and Russian Counter-Revolution, Education of a President
New York Times]
But it is possible to win the inside game and lose the outside game. In their darkest moments, White House aides wonder aloud whether it is even possible for a modern president to succeed, no matter how many bills he signs. Everything seems to conspire against the idea: an implacable opposition with little if any real interest in collaboration, a news media saturated with triviality and conflict, a culture that demands solutions yesterday, a societal cynicism that holds leadership in low regard. Some White House aides who were ready to carve a new spot on Mount Rushmore
for their boss two years ago privately concede now that he cannot be another Abraham Lincoln after all. In this environment, they have increasingly concluded, it may be that every modern president is going to be, at best, average. Were all a lot more cynical now, one aide told me. The easy answer is to blame the Republicans, and White House aides do that with exuberance. But they are also looking at their own misjudgments, the hubris that led them to think they really could defy the laws of politics. Its not that we believed our own press or press releases, but there was definitely a sense at the beginning that we could really change Washington, another White House official told me. Arrogance isnt the right word, but we were overconfident. The biggest miscalculation in the minds of most Obama advisers was the assumption that he could bridge a polarized capital and forge genuinely bipartisan coalitions. While Republican leaders resolved to stand against Obama, his early efforts to woo the opposition also struck many as halfhearted. If anybody thought the Republicans were just going to roll over, we were just terribly mistaken, former Senator Tom Daschle, a mentor and an outside adviser to Obama, told me. Im not sure anybody really thought that, but I think we kind of hoped the Republicans would go away. And obviously they didnt do that. Senator Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat in the upper chamber and Obamas ally from Illinois, said the Republicans were to blame for the absence of bipartisanship. I think his fate was sealed, Durbin said. Once the Republicans decided they would close ranks to defeat him, that just made it extremely difficult and dragged it out for a longer period of time. The American people have a limited attention span. Once you convince them theres a problem, they want a solution. Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, though, is among the Democrats who grade Obama harshly for not being more nimble in the face of opposition. B-plus, Aminus on substantive accomplishments, he told me, and a D-plus or C-minus on communication. The health care legislation is an incredible achievement and the stimulus program was absolutely, unqualifiedly, enormously successful, in Rendells judgment, yet Obama allowed them to be tarnished by critics. They lost the communications battle on both major initiatives, and they lost it early, said Rendell, an ardent Hillary Clinton backer who later became an Obama supporter. We didnt use the president in either stimulus or health care until we had lost the
spin battle.
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barrier is that launching anything into space costs a lot of money. A substantial investment would be needed to get a solar power satellite into orbit; then the launch costs would make the electricity that was produced more
expensive than other alternatives. In the long term, launch costs will need to come down before generating solar power in space makes economic sense. But is the expense of launching enough to explain why so little progress has been made ? There were over 60 launches in 2003, so last year there was enough money spent to put something into orbit about every week on average. Funding was found to launch science satellites to study gravity waves and to explore other planets. There are also dozens of GPS satellites in orbit that help people find out where they are on the ground. Is there enough money available for these purposes, but not enough to launch even one solar power satellite that would help the world develop a new source of energy? In the 2004 budget the Department of Energy has over $260 million allocated for fusion research. Obviously the government has some interest in funding renewable energy research and they realize that private companies would not be able to fund the development of a sustainable fusion industry on their own. From this perspective,
the barrier holding back solar power satellites is not purely financial, but rather the problem is that there is not enough political will to make the money available for further development. There is a very interesting discussion on the
economics of large space projects that makes the point that the fundamental problem in opening any contemporary frontier, whether geographic or technological, is not lack of imagination or will, but lack of capital to finance initial construction which makes the subsequent and typically more profitable economic development possible. Solving this fundamental problem involves using one or more forms of direct or indirect government intervention in the capital market.
No Support for space solar power Mahan 7 (Rob, Founder Citizens for Space Based Solar Power, SBSP FAQ, http://c-sbsp.org/sbsp-faq/)
What are the main hurdles to developing and deploying space-based solar power? Let me start by saying that I believe there are three solutions to every complex problem. First, the technical solution how are we going to solve the problem (often the easiest). Second, the financial solution who is going to pay for / profit from the solution. And third, the political solution who is going to organize the solution and take credit for it. The technical solution for space-based solar power is exciting because no scientific breakthroughs are needed. It is essentially a complex engineering project. The technical solution will initially be dependent on developing low cost and reliable access to space, but later we could use resources mined from Moon and near Earth objects like asteroids. The financial solution will admittedly be very expensive
at first, so there must be an early adopter, like the Defense Department, to provide a market and rewards for those willing to invest in space based solar power and the supporting technologies. Engineering and scientific advancements and the
commercialization of supporting technologies will soon lead to ubiquitous and low cost access to space and more widespread use of wireless power transmision. Economies of scale will eventually make space-based solar power affordable, but probably never cheap again, like energy was fifty years ago. Eventual Moon based operations will reduce costs significantly, since it takes twenty-two times less energy to launch from Moon than from Earths gravity well and the use of lunar materials will allow heavier, more robust structures. The political solution will most likely
be the biggest hurdle to the development of space-based solar power because so many areas have to be negotiated and agreed upon, not only within the United States, but with our allies around the world, too. Strong energy independence
legislation is the first step that needs to be taken immediately. Treaties and agreements for the military and commercial use of space must be negotiated and put into place. Universal safety measures must be agreed upon and integrated into related legislation and treaties. Getting widespread voter (i.e. tax-payer) support to prompt Congress to take action may be the highest hurdle of all
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economic case for space solar power is abysmal. The best estimates are that SSP will cost at least three times the cost per kilowatt hour of even relatively expensive nuclear power. But the military wants to dramatically lower the cost of delivering fuel to distant locations, which could possibly change the cost-benefit ratio. The military savior also theoretically solves some other problems for SSP advocates. One is the need for deep pockets to foot the immense development costs. The other is an institutional avatar one of the persistent policy challenges for SSP has been the fact that responsibility for it supposedly falls through the cracks because neither NASA nor the Department of Energy wants responsibility. If the military takes on the SSP challenge,
the mission will finally have a home. But theres also another factor at work: navet. Space activists tend to have little understanding of military space, coupled with an idealistic impression of its management compared to NASA, whom many space activists have come to despise. For instance, they fail to realize that the military space program is currently in no better shape, and in many cases worse shape, than NASA. The majority of large military space acquisition programs have experienced major problems, in many cases cost growth in excess of 100%. Although NASA has a bad public record for cost overruns, the DoDs less-public record is far worse, and military space has a bad reputation in Congress, which would never allow such a big, expensive new program to be started . Again, this is not to insult the fine work conducted by those who produced the NSSO space solar power study. They accomplished an impressive amount of work without any actual resources. But it is nonsensical for members of the space activist community to claim that the military supports space solar power based solely on a study that had no money, produced by an organization that has no clout.
Last time SPS was introduced to congress- it was blocked because of controversy Eakman 11 (Beverly K. Eakman, She left to become a scientific writer for a NASA contractor. She went on to serve as a former speechwriter for the Voice of America and for the late Chief Justice Warren E. Burger when he chaired the Commission on the Bicentennial of the U.S. Constitution. She was an editor and writer for the U.S. Dept. of Justice before retiring from federal government. She is now author of six books covering education policy, mental-health issues, datatrafficking and political strategy, with dozens of keynote speeches, feature articles and op-eds to her credit. Her most recent works include A Common Sense Platform for the 21st Century and the 2011 Edition of her ever-popular seminar manual, How To Counter Group Manipulation Tactics (Midnight Whistler Publishers, 2010 and 2011, respectively, 17 March 2011, 17 March 2011, , http://www.americandailyherald.com/20110318328/top-stories/left-wing-tsunami-puts-usenergy-infrastructure-at-risk//ZY)
The solar-array
concept went from NASA to the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) in Washington, DC, but was quickly deep-sixed for political reasons, mainly because of the environmentalists concerns over stray birds flying through the microwave beamstechnically called passive relay microwave energy(unlikely to harm wildlife in places like the Mojave Desert). Oil companies contributed to scuttling of the project out of expectations that resurgence in a U.S.-based oil economy eventually would push the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) out of the picture, which never happened.
Instead of giving the green light to American oil-drilling, Congress learned nothing from Carter-era gas lines, and imported even more oil from overseas, because environmentalists deemed drilling at home messy, smelly and toxic.
Solar power creates infighting amongst dems and reps over technicalities Washington Examiner (blog) 6/8 (Rand Simberg, 6/8/11, " Space politics makes strange bedfellows ", http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/opinion-zone/2011/06/space-politics-makes-strange-bedfellows)//ZY
These words were music to the ears of both the Competitive Space Task Force (full disclosure: of which I am chairman) and Tea Party in Space, a Florida-based group that promotes a vigorous but fiscally responsible space program (something exactly the opposite of what those who make space policy on the Hill seem to want). Hence, Monday's press release lauding the two senators' action. Interestingly and ironically, it sets up a potential battle in the upper chamber over space policy, in which the Democratic senators from California are fighting for a competitive approach (in the interest, of course, of their own home state contractor), against a "conservative" Republican senator from Utah who insists on a wasteful, sole-source pork-based one in the interest of his state. Which all goes to show (as we've seen for the last year and a half) that space policy is truly non-partisan, and non-ideological, and it is driven primarily by rent seeking, not a desire to open up space to humanity. As long as space policy remains
unimportant, it will continue to be subject to the petty politics of those whose states and districts benefit from the jobs created, even as wealth is destroyed. But the good news is that this may delay things sufficiently long that an expensive, unnecessary rocket
never gets built at all.
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NYT, By JOHN M. BRODER, Published: January 31, 2011, Obamas Bid to End Oil Subsidies Revives
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/science/earth/01subsidy.html//ZY
Previous efforts
have run up against bipartisan opposition in Congress and heavy lobbying from producers of oil, natural gas and coal. The head of the oil and gas lobby in Washington contends that the president has it backward that the industry subsidizes the government, through billions of dollars in taxes and royalties, not the other way around. But even as the president says he wants to do away with incentives for fossil fuels, his policies continue to provide for substantial aid to oil and gas companies as well as billions of dollars in subsidies for coal, nuclear and other energy sources with large and long-lasting environmental impacts. Mr. Obamas proposal rekindles a long-running debate over federal subsidies for energy of all kinds, including petroleum, coal, hydropower, wind, solar and biofuels. Opposition to such subsidies often euphemistically referred to as incentives, tax credits, preferences or loan guarantees spans the ideological spectrum, from conservative economists who believe such breaks distort the marketplace to environmentalists who believe that renewable energy sources will always lose out in subsidy fights because of the power of the entrenched fossil fuel industries. David W. Kreutzer, an energy economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, argues that the federal government should take its thumb off the scale by eliminating subsidies for all forms of energy, even it if means slowing development of cleaner-burning fuel sources. We would like to get rid of all
subsidies, Dr. Kreutzer said. We know that petroleum and coal survive just fine in places where there are no subsidies. I dont know if thats true for wind and solar now, but someday it will be, when the price comes down. H. Jeffrey Leonard, president of the Global Environment Fund, a private equity firm that invests in clean-technology ventures, said that the current subsidy structure was the legacy of 60 years of lobbying and political jockeying in Washington that largely benefits oil, coal, nuclear power and corn-based ethanol. He calls for scrapping all subsidies and letting fuel sources compete on equal ground. Mr. Obama is not willing to go that far. He has supported favored tax treatment for wind and solar power as well as a 50 percent increase in federal research spending on other alternative energy sources. He also has proposed as much as $50 billion in federal loan guarantees for nuclear power plant construction, money he believes is needed because the private market is unwilling to assume the potential costs of a catastrophic accident. Energy economists say that the presidents call in the State of the Union address for doubling the amount of electricity produced from cleaner technology by 2035 is designed to manipulate energy markets, forcing utilities to shift to the governments preferred sources of energy on the governments timetable, although leaving to them the choice of fuels. A White House spokesman put it a bit more benignly. The plan the president outlined would establish a clear goal for clean energy and let utilities achieve that in the most cost-effective way possible, the official said. Mr. Obamas policies encourage utilities to switch from coal to cleaner-burning natural gas to generate electricity, which simply substitutes one fossil fuel for another and helps subsidize natural gas exploration and distribution. The president is also proposing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to develop technology to capture and store carbon dioxide emissions from coal plants and oil refineries, another hidden subsidy for fossil fuels. And, many environmentalists argue, every day that goes by without a policy to put a price on carbon emissions from all sources is a day in which the federal government subsidizes energy producers by socializing the long-term health and environmental costs of their products. My view is the
country is better off on having a neutral playing field for all forms of energy, said Douglas Koplow, founder of Earth Track, a group in Cambridge, Mass., that studies global energy subsidies. President Obama defines clean fuels as natural gas, coal
with carbon capture, nuclear, Mr. Koplow said. From my perspective, if you subsidize carbon capture and storage, thats a big subsidy for coal. Nuclear is massively subsidized through a risk transfer from shareholders to ratepayers. Its hard to justify these technologies that cant make it on their own. If were really concerned about greenhouse gases, we should deal with the problem and cap them, he added. Instead, politicians and lobbyists want to carve out policies for their own industries. Mr. Obama specifically proposes to eliminate roughly $4 billion a year in more than a half-dozen tax exemptions for oil and gas companies and an additional $200 million a year in preferences for coal. The tax breaks for oil have a long history the so-called percentage depletion allowance for oil and natural gas wells dates to the 1920s and have withstood repeated efforts to kill them. The president proposed a global end to such subsidies at the Group of 20 meeting in 2009, and while most nations endorsed the idea in theory, little has been done. And Mr. Obama will have a tough fight trying to get even these relatively modest proposals enacted over the objections of the oil and coal industries, who argue that such tax treatment is necessary to keep drillers drilling and miners mining. This is a tired old argument weve been hearing for two years now, said Jack Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute, the oil and gas industrys main lobby in Washington. If the president were serious about job creation, he would be working with us to develop American oil and gas by American workers for American consumers. Mr. Gerard noted that there was bipartisan opposition to lifting the tax breaks, adding: The federal government by no stretch of the imagination subsidizes the oil industry. The oil industry subsidizes the federal government at a rate of $95 million a day. Michael Levi, an energy and climate change analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, said calls for an end to energy subsidies missed a broader point: that embryonic energy technologies will need some government help to gain a foothold against the fossil fuel lobbies. Id love to find a quick fix for Americas energy problems just as much as the next guy, Mr. Levi wrote last week on his blog. Id also be delighted to have a reason to cut subsidies, many of which are hugely wasteful, he added. But an effort to eliminate all energy subsidies without instituting better alternative policies should be understood for what it is: a recipe for cementing the dominance of traditional fossil fuels against their competitors.
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Obamas goal of getting to a near Earth asteroid. Yet the new NASA proposal does not include any money for this specific mission. Last year Congress passed and the President signed a NASA authorization bill that promised the agency $19.5 billion in fiscal year 2012. The same bill ordered that NASA begin work on a new heavy lift vehicle, called the Space Launch System (SLS), not dissimilar to the Ares 5 launcher that had been under development for the Constellation program. Now the agencys Exploration Systems Mission Directorate says that they cannot build the rocket that Congress and the President ordered them to build. This raises the question: when did NASA realize it couldnt build the SLS? If it was sooner than
Januarys preliminary report to Congress that contained that conclusion, did NASAs leadership raise those concerns with the White House and Congress? By taking away the goal of going back to the Moon and building a base there, NASA has eliminated the element of national pride that has always been the most important and unspoken aspect of Americas space program. If NASA is now just another international partner, its funding will reflect the importance most Americans give to passing what Senator, and failed presidential candidate, John Kerry called the global test. There is also now no reason for Congress to give NASAs technology development program more than a billion dollars to do essentially nothing. None of the proposed development programs are sufficiently funded to produce any operational hardware within the foreseeable future. With no goal, except uncertain and ill-defined asteroid and Mars missions that will almost certainly never take off before 2030, NASAs Chief Technologist reminds one of the title character in the old Beatles song Nowhere Man. NASAs $5-billion science budget is almost certainly going to be cut. Many in Congress are suspicious of its earth science programs since not only do they seem to have
little to do with the agencys core space exploration mission, but the programs are so intertwined with the controversies and political battles over global warming that cutting them or putting them on pause would seem logical. At the very least many of the new earth observation satellites will be delayed while Congress examines the role of earth sciences at
NASA.
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The US space agency (Nasa) has been given a new direction, one that will seek to put astronauts in orbit using privately-run launch services. The change comes into effect with the signing by President Barack Obama of the Nasa Authorization Act 2010. The legislation, passed by Congress last week, mandates the agency to fly the space station until 2020 and to launch one extra shuttle next year. It also instructs Nasa to start work on a rocket for deep-space exploration. The president's signature on the act brings to an end eight months of fractious debate on Capitol Hill about the future course of the agency. Nasa's Administrator Charles Bolden told reporters: "Our nation's leaders have come together and endorsed a blueprint for Nasa, one that requires us to think and act boldly as we move our agency into the future. This legislation supports the president's ambitious plan for Nasa to pioneer new frontiers of innovation and discovery." The act will mark a sea change in the way Nasa does some of its business, particularly in the realm of
human spaceflight. The legislation calls for $1.3bn to be allocated to the development of commercial crew services over the next three years. The money will seed private companies to design and build rockets and capsules capable of delivering astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS). The legislation also signals a formal end to the Constellation programme begun under President George Bush that sought to return humans to the Moon with a new spaceship called Orion and two new rockets called Ares 1 and Ares 5. Some $9bn was spent
on Constellation. Much of its technology and know-how will now be directed into an alternative rocket system big enough to launch a spaceship, or at least some of its elements, on missions that go far beyond the ISS. Atlantis shuttle (Nasa) Nasa will aim to fly one last shuttle to the space station, probably in June or July 2011 These
ventures are likely to include asteroids and, eventually, Mars. Legislators want Nasa to receive $11.5bn over the next six years to have the new heavy-lift rocket ready for operation by 31 December 2016. Some critics of the legislation have questioned whether
the funding being requested is sufficient for the task, but Florida Senator Bill Nelson who helped build bipartisan support for the legislation said it should be ample. "If we can't develop a new rocket for $11.5bn, building on a lot of the technologies that were already developed in spending $9bn - if we can't do it for that then we ought to question whether we can build a rocket." The act authorises $19bn for Nasa in the federal year 2011, a significant increase on 2010. This would allow the agency to expand its activities in a number of areas, including in Earth observation where some missions have been allowed to run past their nominal lifetimes without replacements being ordered up in time to prevent data gaps. Lockheed Martin Work done on Constellation will now be directed into the new heavy-lift launch system "I think it's wonderful that we're now at this stage," commented Dr Sally Ride, the first American woman in space and one of a group of experts tasked by President Obama with reviewing human spaceflight policy when he came into office. "The extensive discussion of the president's budget and the deliberation of the elements of this bill I believe have resulted in legislation that will strengthen Nasa and the space programme." The $19bn is not completely guaranteed. The money still has to be allocated by congressional appropriators, but Senator Nelson said he thought wide support on Capitol Hill for Nasa would ensure its activities were not denied funding as a result of more general arguments over federal spending and the need to reduce the nation's deficit.
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programs over the next three years, but Nelson said it is going to be a tough legislative session figuring out how and where that money would be spent. Bolden said the bill moves resources away from the space shuttle program and toward the commercial space industry more smoothly. He added that the bill also speeds up the development of heavy-lift rocket, starting in 2011. NASA said the addition of an extra space shuttle flight would help transfer additional supplies to and from the International Space Station that would not travel well in a Russian Soyuz rocket. Most importantly, said Nelson -- himself a former astronaut -- the additional shuttle mission was designed to help save jobs on the Space Coast, and make for a smoother transition from the 30-year shuttle program to what he called the new NASA. Instead of the workforce dropping off a cliff, it smoothes the transition down, then starts to ramp up the workforce with the building of the new heavy-lift rocket being accelerated, plus commercial rocket activity and the assembling of spacecraft that will ultimately fly on the heavy-lift rocket, said Nelson. U.S. Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, also on the conference call, said the space program is a very important resource for our country, and especially along the Space Coast, where it has been in the DNA of families for generations. Space exploration here is part of the fabric of the community, said Kosmas, whose district includes the Kennedy Space Center and northern Brevard County. Nelson and Kosmas, both
Democrats, made a point to thank their colleagues on both sides of the aisle for the bipartisan support of the space programs future. Also on the conference call was former astronaut Sally Ride, the first American woman to fly into space, who further praised the
strong support for NASA from both Democrats and Republicans. Ride said she was happy that we have a bill thats bipartisan, and one the president and Congress can be excited about. Plan unpopular NASA likes the end of Constellation Bolden 10 [Charles Bolden, NASA administrator quote reported in article: Jacqueline Fell, Reporter for CF 13 News. Central Florida News 13/Bright
House Networks, 11 October 2010: President Obama signs NASA authorization bill accessed June 22, 2011 from http://www.cfnews13.com/article/news/2010/october/160470/President-Obama-signs-NASA-reauthorization-bill] NASA Administrator Charles Bolden's statement "Earlier today, President Obama signed into law the and
N ational Aeronautics S pace Administration Authorization Act of 2010. It is important bipartisan legislation that charts a new course for space exploration, science, technology development, and aeronautics. We are grateful for the President's forward-thinking plan and the hard work members of Congress put into this framework that will
guide us for the coming three years. "This legislation supports the president's ambitious plan for NASA to pioneer new frontiers of innovation and discovery. With this direction, we will extend operations on the International Space Station through at least 2020. "We will foster a
growing commercial space transportation industry that will allow NASA to focus our efforts on executing direction in the act to start work on a heavy-lift architecture to take astronauts beyond low-Earth orbit and to develop a multipurpose crew vehicle for use with our new space launch systems. "Also, we will continue to invest in green aviation and other technologies that make air travel safer and more efficient. "In collaboration with our international partners, industry, and academia, we will build and launch observatories and robotic missions to explore our solar system and peer through new windows into our amazing universe, as well as help us better understand our own home planet with a robust plus-up in our Earth Science program. Our education programs will build on all of this to inspire future generations of scientists, engineers, and explorers. "We have been given a new path in space that will enable our country to develop greater capabilities, transforming the state of the art in aerospace technologies. We will continue to maintain and expand vital partnerships around the world. It will help us retool for the industries and jobs of the future that will be vital for long-term economic growth and national security. "Our workers have been steadfast in their dedication to safety and
success through this time of transition, and we salute their hard work and continued professional excellence. They will continue to be our most vital resource as we implement these plans. "As the 2011 appropriations process moves forward, there is still a lot of hard work ahead of us in collaboration with the Congress. We are committed to work together with the continued wide public support for NASA, and the bipartisan backing of Congress. Today's vote of confidence from the president ensures America's space program will remain at the forefront of a bright future for our nation."
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***Impacts
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2NC DA Outweighs
SKFTA will pass because Obama is using political capital to gain concessions from both Democrats and Republicans. Space policy alienates both groups by shifting the debate to spending. Failure to pass the agreement collapses the alliance and causes Korea war. Disad outweighs the case. Only Korea Escalates to Nuclear warUS deterrence key Gray 2005
[Professor of International Politics and Strategic Studies, and Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, at the University of Reading (Spring 2005, Colin S., Parameters, How Has War Changed Since the End of the Cold War? http://www.carlisle.army. mil/usawc/parameters/05spring/gray.htm) 6. Interstate war, down but far from out. Logically, the reverse side of the coin which proclaims a trend favoring political violence internal to states, is the claim that
interstate warfare is becoming, or has become, an historical curiosity. Steven Metz and Raymond Millen assure us that most armed conflicts in coming decades are likely to be internal ones.21 That is probably a safe prediction, though we might choose to be troubled by their prudent hedging with the qualifier, most. Their plausible claim would look a little different in hindsight were it to prove strictly true, but with the exceptions of one or two interstate nuclear conflicts, say between India and Pakistan, and North Korea and the United States and its allies. The same authors also offer the comforting judgment that [d]ecisive war between major states is rapidly moving toward historys dustbin.22 It is an attractive claim; it is a shame that it is wrong. War, let alone decisive war, between major states currently is enjoying an off season
for one main reason. So extreme is the imbalance of military power in favor of the United States that potential rivals rule out policies that might lead to hostilities with the superpower. It is fashionable to argue that major interstate war is yesterdays problemrecall that the yesterday in question is barely fifteen years in the past--because
The menace of major, if not necessarily decisive, interstate war will return to frighten us when great power rivals feel able to challenge American hegemony. If you read your Thucydides, and Donald Kagan, you will be reminded of the deadly and eternal influence of the deadly triad of motives for war,
now there is nothing to fight about and nothing to be gained by armed conflict. Would that those points were true; unfortunately they are not. fear, honor, and interest.23
All eyes will remain on the sabre rattling between the two Koreas . Interesting fact: The Korean war isnt over. Literally. Theres an
armistice, which means theyre not supposed to shoot at each other (North Korea, I am looking at you), but technically its still on. No one really thinks the Koreas are about to break into trench warfare resembling 1951 again at any moment. The
presence of nuclear weapons drastically changes the calculus for both sides because the stakes are literally survival and neither side has a death wish. This has not diminished the international communitys concern, however, that in the heat of the moment, a cant-take-it-back move could be made and things could rapidly devolve. Not surprising considering Seoul is well within range of a North Korean conventional artillery strike let alone any need for long-range missiles or nucleartipped weapons. Great Leader Kim Jong-il the leader previously known as Intelligent Leader and Dear Leader and one can see why, what with the starving of people to build nukes will transfer power to his son Kim Jong-un. Expect the aggressive moves and rhetoric to pick up as the family dynasty demonstrates its power and solidarity inside and outside the regime. Last year saw the North build a new and surprisingly sophisticated uranium enrichment plant to fuel the nuclear weapons program. Kim Jong-il torpedoed and sunk a South Korean warship, killing sailors. Later in the year, he killed South Korean soldiers with a conventional artillery strike. Expect 2011 to bring increasing tension and global attention to the Korean peninsula.
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Strong alliance coordination with South Korea has ensured peninsular stability for more than five decades, initially in response to North Koreas conventional threat and now in promoting a coordinated response to North Koreas efforts to develop nuclear weapons. While successfully deterring North Korea, the alliance also provided the political stability necessary for South Koreas economic and
political trans- formation into a leading market economy with a vibrant democratic political system. South Koreas democratic transformation has allowed a more robust and enduring partnership with the United States that also applies to a growing list of regional and global security, economic, and political issues beyond North Korea. Presidents Obama
and Lee recognized the potential for such cooperation through the adoption of a Joint Vision Statement at their White House meeting in June 2009.43 Citing shared values between the two countries, the statement outlines an agenda for broadened global
cooperation on peacekeeping, post conflict stabilization, and development assistance, as well as for addressing a wide range of common challenges to human security, including terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, piracy, organized crime and narcotics, climate change, poverty, infringement on human rights, energy security, and epidemic disease.44 The
Joint Vision Statement also underscores U.S. commitments to defend South Korea from North Koreas nuclear challenge by providing extended deterrence to protect South Koreathat is, a pledge to use its nuclear arsenal in response to any nuclear attack on South Koreaand to transition the role of U.S. forces in South Korea from a leading to a supporting role. It also pledges to strengthen bilateral economic, trade, and investment ties through ratification of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA).
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NK China Escalation
China gets pulled in on North Koreas side ISN 1/27
(International Relations and Security Network http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISNInsights/Detail?lng=en&id=126468&contextid734=126468&contextid735=126467&tabid=126467) Similar political realities have undermined another Washington attempt at a concert of powers, the Six Party Talks concerning the North Korean nuclear program. The Korean Peninsula is the strategic key to Manchuria and to China's coastal security. The 1894 Sino-Japanese War was a contest between the two powers for influence in Korea. China's loss led to a weakened Qing position in Manchuria and along the coast that invited further aggression from Japan, Russia and the European powers. In the Korean War in the 1950s, China spent, by some estimates, over a million lives to keep North Korea in existence and in the Sino-Soviet sphere. Beijing is unlikely to
Recent events show the opposite. China has boosted its economic aid and investment programs in North Korea, and Beijing has been particularly reluctant to use its considerable leverage over Pyongyang to force concessions on its nuclear weapons program. Indeed, Kim Jong Il's recent visit to China, just as he is working to effect a smooth leadership transition, indicates that Beijing will remain deeply invested in the present North Korean regime.
take any action to undermine a regime that acts as a buffer against the United States, South Korea and Japan.
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NK CBW Impact
North Korean conflict will involve Biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons The Telegraph 2/2
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html Spencer)
security briefing at an international non-proliferation summit in 2008 stated that a nuclear and missile arms race [in South Asia] has the direct potential to lead to nuclear war in the world's most densely populated area and a region of increasing global economic significance. The same briefing gave warning that development of cruise and ballistic missiles in the Middle East and Asia could enable rogue states to fire weapons of mass destruction into neighbouring regions. The leaked documents also disclose alarming details of the chemical and biological weapons programmes being pursued by rogue states such as Syria and North Korea. Syria - which backs the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah is believed to be
Secret records of a US developing chemical weapons using the lethal nerve agents sarin and VX, which shut down the nervous system in under a minute if inhaled or absorbed through the skin. In December 2008, a company connected to the Syrian WMD programme attempted to buy a shipment of glass-lined reactors, heat exchangers and pumps used in weapons manufacturing from two Indian firms, prompting an intervention by the US. Condoleezza Rice, then US Secretary of State, sent a strongly-worded cable classified secret to the US embassy in New Delhi instructing diplomats to order the Indian government to block the sale. Threatening sanctions against the firms if they did not comply, Miss Rice urged embassy officials to remind the Indian government of its obligation to never, under any circumstances, assist anyone in the development of chemical weapons. The US has made similar interventions to block the sale of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons materials to North Korea. In March 2008, US
diplomats in Beijing urged the government to investigate a Chinese company which had agreed to sell a deadly chemical to North Korea. The US has also been advised to make flattering overtures to North Korea to prevent the regime from feeling the need to flex its muscles by advancing its nuclear capabilities. South Korean politicians told US
diplomats last year that the North had made a show of testing nuclear missiles in the early months of Barack Obamas presidency because it was feeling ignored and lonely and was trying to draw Americas attention.
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U.S.South Korea relations magnifies the KORUS FTAs importance, primarily because the fate of the FTA will be seen as an indicator of broader U.S. policy: it would be harder for the United States to take concrete steps regionally to minimize the negative effects in the event the KORUS FTA is rejected or indefinitely delayed. Additionally, the KORUS FTA has become something of a symbol of the depth of the U.S. commitment to the U.S.South Korea alliance and to the U.S. forward presence in East Asia. Right or wrong, many Asians believe that the United States is disengaging from the region. If the South Korean National Assembly approves the pact and the FTA is either rejected or not introduced in the United States, many Koreans and Asians may regard this as an additional sign of U.S. disengagement at a time when other great powers like
Looking beyond Japan and China are increasing their economic diplomacy.
US dominance in East Asia is key to prevent Chinese invasion of Taiwan and ensure regional stability Brookes 2008
[sr. fellow, National Security Affairs, Heritage, 11/24/ (Brookes, Peter, "Why the World Still Needs America's Military Might,"http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/hl1102.cfm)
China is undergoing a major military buildup, especially involving its power projection forces--i.e., air force, navy, and ballistic missile forces, all aimed at Taiwan. Indeed, today Beijing has the world's third
Further to the south, what about stability across the Taiwan Strait? We know that largest defense budget and the world's fastest growing peacetime defense budget, growing at over 10 percent per year for over a decade. It increased its defense budget nearly 18 percent annually over the past two years. I would daresay that military China
tensions across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and would be much greater today if not for an implied commitment on the part of the United States to prevent a change in the political status quo via military means. China hasn't renounced the use of force against its neighbor and rival, Taiwan, a vibrant, free-market democracy. It is believed by many analysts that absent American military might, China would quickly unite Taiwan with the mainland under force of arms. In general, the system of military alliances in Asia that the United States maintains provides the basis for stability in the Pacific, since the region has failed to develop an overarching security architecture such as that found in Europe in NATO.
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable. Conflict on such a scale would embroil other countries far and near and -- horror of horrors -raise the possibility of a nuclear war. Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics
support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser
east Asia will be set on fire. And the conflagration may not end there as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US distracted, Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political landscape. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia, hostilities between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous phase. Will a full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway, commander of the US Eighth Army which
extent, Singapore. If China were to retaliate, fought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had at the time thought of using nuclear weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with two choices in Korea -- truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar capability, there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later, short of using nuclear weapons. The
Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. MajorUS estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities. General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. He said military leaders considered the
we would see the destruction of civilisation. There would be no victors in such a war. While the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.
use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention. Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass,
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2NC Regionalism
Asian regional trade is at a crossroads SKFTA is key to shift towards a US based liberal model and away from Chinese influence. These market based rules are critical to Asian regionalism. Snyder 2010
Scott Director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation and Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korean Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Economic Interdependence, Alliance Cooperation, and Sino-U.S. Complex Interdependence December 23, 2010 The East Asia Institute Issue Briefing No. MASI 2010-07
Both the United States and South Korea face an unanswerable question regarding the impact of Chinas rise on the global system that will have a direct impact on both the alliance and the structure of the international community; i.e., will Chinas rise reinforce global norms or introduce changes in the international system that are contrary to U.S./ROK collective interests? The phenomenon of delinking economic interdependence from a purely security-oriented view that has in the past constrained the development of economic relations with non-security partners is both evidence of Chinas willingness to embrace the existing international order as a vehicle by which to secure its own economic development and an opportunity to break out of a situation in which overt economic competition in strictly realist terms served only to reinforce national power in a zero-sum fashion that may make conflict inevitable. But the diffusion of economic prosperity across traditional political and security dividing lines also carries with it a certain level of political risk if indeed the international structure that has enabled Chinas rise is then used to make new global rules that privilege self-advantage or compromise efforts to promote a market-based level playing field that has been a hallmark of the post-war international system. The KORUS FTA deepens U.S.-ROK economic integration in ways that might serve to buttress an open trading system on the U.S. model, but such integration is not likely to have a major impact on the U.S.-ROK security alliance. However, it remains to be seen whether Chinacentered economic integration may eventually constrain the U.S.-ROK military alliance in other ways, by shifting perceived interest in ways that raise the cost and effectiveness of political military cooperation within the alliance while creating new patterns of interaction and self-interest that weaken the efficacy of alliance ties.
Conclusion: Will Chinas Economic Rise Result in a Paradigm Shift for the Structure of Security Relations?
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2NC Regionalism
Collapse of regionalism collapses ASEAN - results in extinction. Rajaratnam 1992
(Distinguished Senior Fellow at Institute of South East Asian Studies and Former Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore The Way Ahead, www.aseansec.org/13991.htm)
Should regionalism collapse, then ASEAN too will go the way of earlier regional attempts like SEATO, ASA and MAPHlLlNDO. All that remains today of these earlier experiments are their bleached bones. Should the new regional efforts collapse, then globalism, the final stage of historical development, will also fall apart. Then we will inevitably enter another Dark Ages and World War III, fought this time not with gun-powder, but with nuclear weapons far more devastating than those exploded in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Modern technology and science
are pushing the world simultaneously in the direction of regionalism and globalism. What is responsible for today's economic disintegration, disorder and violence is the resistance offered by nationalism to the irresistible counter-pressures of regionalism and globalism. As of today, there are only two functioning and highly respected regional organizations in the world. They are, in order of their importance and seniority, the European Community (EC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The first came into being in 1957 and the second in 1967. A mere ten years separates the two. The population of the European Community as at 1990 was 350 million, and that of ASEAN an estimated 323 million. In terms of population, they are not all that unequal. In terms of political and economic dynamism, though, the gap is qualitatively wider. The economic dynamism and the proven political cohesion of ASEAN is nevertheless slowly but steadily narrowing the gap between the European Community and ASEAN. To compare ASEAN with the so-called Little Dragons of Asia is to compare unrelated political species. The Little Dragons are
In the case of ASEAN, as integration proceeds, its strength will be the cohesiveness of over 300 million people with far greater resources than any of the lone baby dragons. The most remarkable feature about the two regional organizations is their continuity and coherence despite the persistence and often unmanageable turbulence and tensions that have and still characterize the post-war world.
lone wolves hunting separately. They lack collective strength or awareness. With them it is a case of each wolf for itself. There have been some 100 international, civil, racial and religious conflicts. Far from abating, these are growing in number. By comparison the European Community and ASEAN are the still centres in the eye of the storm. There is apprehension that chaos, not order, is the draft of world politics and economies today. For many, the expectation is that tomorrow will be worse than
Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold." Yet the two multi-racial and multi-cultural regional organizations I have mentioned con- tinue to grow in maturity, cohesiveness, and confidence. They believe that regionalism
yesterday and that history has been a descent from the Golden Age to the Dark Ages. To quote the poet Yeats, though the world is seemingly intact: " can survive the buffeting winds and storms. The European Community, unlike ASEAN, has had far more experience with regional organization because its founding members, in particular Britain, France, Holland, Belgium and even Germany participated in the creation and management of far-flung complex global empires. Their scientific and technological cultures were many light years ahead of all preceding cultures and civilizations. However eminent and admirable pre-European tradi- tional civilizations were, the 19th and 20th century culture created by the West cannot be surpassed or displaced by invoking ancient creeds. Only Japan has so far demonstrated that the gap between medieval and modern cultures can be narrowed and possibly over taken. Moreover, only Western nations and Japan have demonstrated a capacity for con- structing massive modern empires, though unfortunately, they demonstrated this by their ability to organize and unleash modern wars. No Asian nation, however, has fought, let alone won, wars of comparable magnitude. Saddam Hussein's chest-thumping has the resonance of hollow drums. Western Europeans have over a period of 500 years built a chain of multi-racial and multi-national empires that at their peak stretched from Portugal and Spain to the Pacific shores of Russia, and parts of Asia and Africa. So reconstituting a West European regional community should be child's play for them. But creating and managing, within a brief period of only 25 years, an ASEAN community of six economically and industrially under-developed peoples who had no experience of administering a modern, complex multi-racial regional organization verges, in my view, on the miraculous. The reach of the ancient empires of Greece, Rome, China, India, Persia and Babylon, ruled by allegedly Divine emperors, was ludicrously short and their claims of being rulers of World empires were fanciful exaggerations. The effective extent of their empires did not go beyond the palace and surrounding villages. Modern nationalism, regionalism and globalism are of a different order politically, economically and even psychologically. Nationalism is a 19th century concept. Earlier forms of nationalism were, in fact, imperialism. It united petty principalities, states and clans into nations. These have now outlived their usefulness. But regionalism is based on concepts and aspirations of a higher order. Asian regionalism was first launched on 25 April 1955 at Bandung. It was initially a comprehensive Afro-Asian Conference presided over by Heads of Government. It included legendary figures like Sukarno. Nehru, Zhou Enlai, Kotalawela of what was then Ceylon, Sihanouk and Mohammed Ali, the Prime Minister of Pakistan. However, this regional effort did not last long. Asian and African nationalisms which helped speed up the collapse of Western, and later Japanese imperialisms, did not last long. Within a few years after its founding, not only Afro-Asian solidarity but also the solidarity of individual Asian and African nation states was in disarray. The destruction of nationalism is today being brought about, not by Western imperialism, which had already grown weary. thanks to two world wars, of holding sway over palm and pine, but by Third World nationalism. The economic and political underpinnings of European nationalisms were in fact, even before the start of the 20th century, beginning to crack. In fact, Lord Acton. towards the end of the 19th century, predicted the inevitable collapse of nationalism. I quote his judgement- "Nationality does not aim either at liberty or prosperity, both of which it sacrifices to the imperative necessity of making the nation the mould and measure of the state. It will be marked by material and moral ruin." This prophecy is as accurate today as it was when Lord Acton made it in 1862. So was Karl Marx's prophecy about the inevitable collapse of nationalism but for different reasons. He predicted the overthrow of nationalism and capitalism by an international proletariat. So did Lenin and so did Mao with their clarion call of: "Workers of the World unite." Internationalism has a long history. Chinese, Christians, Greeks, Romans and Muslims were never tired of announcing themselves as "World Rulers", However, after World War II, empires went out of fashion. It is today being gradually replaced by a more rational form of political and economic organization. The early years of the 20th century witnessed, for example, experiments with a novel form of regionalism -continental regionalism. It was formed by simply prefixing the word "Pan" to the continents of Europe, Asia and America -Pan-Europa, Pan-America and Pan-Asia, of which Japan, after having in 1905 defeated the Russian fleet in one of the most decisive naval battles ever fought in the Tsushima Straits, became Asia's most persistent publicist. After World War II, Pan-African and Pan-Arab movements were added to the list. However, these early "Pan" movements have since then either collapsed totally or are in the process of violent disintegration because of dissension on grounds of race, religion, language or nation. However, the word "Pan" has recently been revived in East Europe. It is called "Pan-Slavism" and is today being revived with bloody vengeance. The multi-racial and multi-cultural Yugoslav nation that President Tito created during World War 11 and which is today being
The new regionalism that is now emerging out of the ruins of post-World War II nationalism appears to have learnt from the errors of the past. A more sophisticated and realistic form of regionalism is being constructed, not as an end in itself but as the means towards a higher level of political, social and economic organization. I propose to do no more than list the names of some of the new regionalisms now taking shape. Basic to this approach is that there is not going to be any sudden great leap forward from regionalism to globalism. However, none of the new regionalisms now taking shape are as bold as either the European Community or ASEAN. The latter two are more rationally focussed regionalism. But a word of caution is necessary. We must know how to
torn apart is a grim warning of what can happen to nations possessed by racial and religious demons. handle these new regionalisms intelligently. They could be steps towards global peace, progress and cultural development or they could be fuel for World War III. Foremost among the new regional approaches is the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum. Among the many other regional concepts waiting in the wings are: the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); the Group of Seven (G7); East Asian Economic Caucus (EAEC); Pacific Economic Co-operation Conference (PECC); the amiable Little Dragons of South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan for which no acronym has yet been announced. There are also the distant rumbles of the possible emergence of Big Dragons but as a Chinese saying goes: "There is a lot of noise in the stairways, but nobody has so far entered the room." One fervently hopes that when a Big Dragon turns up, it would be an amiable Great Dragon and one which would know its way around the Spratly and Paracel Islands but without being a Dragon in a China shop. World War II started, it must be remembered, simply because the German
Real regionalism requires a world-view if it is not to lose its way in the global world of modern technology and science. It must also have a rational and deep understanding of the new history which is being shaped not by heroic individuals, but through the coand Japanese Dragons got their maps all wrong. operative inter-action of some 5 billion people who today live in a vastly shrunken planet and who, thanks to growing literacy and fast-as-light electronic communication, are better informed about the world we live in than earlier generations. Nobody, not even super-computers can predict what will happen when each day the flow of history is cumulatively determined by individual decisions
Fewer and fewer people today believe that oppression, hunger and injustice is God's will to which they must meekly submit. People today know the difference between "Let us pray" and "Let us prey". The end of the Cold War and the collapse of communism has, in no way, made for a more peaceful world. Wars have ended in the West- ern world but not so elsewhere. World War III, should it ever be unleashed, would be the last war mankind will ever fight .
made by 5 billion human beings who are asserting their right to a decent and just society.
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Whither U.S.-Korea trade relations? The answer depends importantly on what happens with the KORUS FTA . If the U.S.
policy inertia of the first year of the Obama administration continues and Congress does not address the KORUS FTA in 2010, then events in Asia will increasingly dominate the Korean policy agenda. In other words, the trend of the past decade, which has recorded a steady decline in the U.S. share of Korean trade, will deepen. In this scenario, Korea
would then pursue closer ties with its Asian partners, especially China and Japan. Korean trade priorities would focus on building a Northeast Asian FTA with China and Japan , as well as harmonizing the pacts that each of them has concluded with the ASEAN; in other words, the emphasis would be on creating a more substantive Ten plus Three arrangement linking Northeast and Southeast Asia instead of engaging with the United States in other trade initiatives in East Asia, including nascent efforts to build a trans-Pacifi c partnership (TPP). More important, the lack of U.S. follow-through on the KORUS FTA would cast doubts about the overall U.S. commitment to its alliance with Korea. All in all, this scenario means increased tension in U.S.-Korea relations, lost opportunities for U.S. exporters and investors, and possibly new discrimination across the major markets of Asia. But the bleak scenario of U.S. policy inertia has
an equally optimistic counterpart. If the impasse over implementing the KORUS FTA can be broken and the agreement ratified in 2010, then the stage will be set for
ratifying the KORUS FTA would refocus attention on how Asian countries engage with the United States and redirect efforts toward Asia-Pacific initiatives.
expanded bilateral trade ties and broader bilateral cooperation on regional economic integration. Simply put,
SKFTA serves as a template for liberal and open East Asian regional trade. Snyder 2010
[Scott, Director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation and Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korean Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Economic Interdependence, Alliance Cooperation, and Sino-U.S. Complex Interdependence December 23, 2010 The East Asia Institute Issue Briefing No. MASI 2010-07
One significant implication of the KORUS FTA is that is can serve as a template for other FTAs that the United States would like to see in the Asia-Pacific region, thereby providing an essential road map or template for other initiatives such as the
Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP) negotiations or the initiative to establish a Free Trade Area in the AsiaPacific (FTAAP). Moreover, the KORUS agreement clearly served as the benchmark for South Koreas free trade agreement with the European Union, even if the Korea-EU FTA comes into affect prior to the ratification of the KORUS FTA.
To the extent that the KORUS FTA can contribute to the shaping of an open versus a mercantilistic approach to international trade in East Asia, such developments are in the interest of both countries and set the stage for both regional and multilateral discussions on these issues that can assist in promoting development of a new global standard that is favorable to Korean and U.S. interests . This is a strategic argument that the two countries are able to make on the
merits, but it has little impact on the level of security cooperation in the U.S.-ROK alliance relationship.
Failure of SKFTA locks the US out of Asian trade architectures undercutting US leadership on trade and in Asia. Manyin & Cooper 2009
Congressional Research Service, 2009, CAN THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTH KOREA SING WITHOUT KORUS? THE ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC EFFECTS OF THE KORUS FTA, [Mark; William], p. http://www.keia.org/Publications/JointAcademicStudies/2009/Cooper.pdf On the economic front, a
delay or rejection of the KORUS FTA could have wider implications for U.S. trade policy, which is now in a period of reevaluation. In addition to the KORUS FTA, U.S. FTAs with Colombia and Panama are not likely to receive consideration before the conclusion of the 110th Congress, leaving it to a new Congress and administration to decide their fates. The Doha Development Agenda round in the WTO is for all intents and purposes on life support, if not already dead, raising questions in the minds of U.S. policymakers and other experts regarding the future role of the WTO and multilateral negotiations in shaping the international trading framework. KORUS FTA will likely play a role in the reevaluation of trade policy. For better or worse, its rejection or indefinite delay might call into question the viability of FTAs as a
serious U.S. tool to strengthen economic ties with major trading partners. The KORUS FTA is the first FTA that the United States has entered into with a major trading
Some might argue that if, for example, the United States cannot accept an FTA with South Korea, how could it hope to achieve an FTA with Japan or the EU, two trading partners with which the United States has even more complex trade issues, to say nothing of the broader Free Trade Agreement of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) that the Bush administration has proposed. Similarly, the fate of the KORUS FTA could have an impact on U.S. efforts to institutionalize its economic presence in East Asia . The United States has been using FTAs to try to accomplish this since the initiative with the 21-member Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum has stalled, if not collapsed. The FTAs are also in response to proposals among East Asian countries to form an East Asian Free Trade Area consisting of the 10 members of ASEAN, Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia, and New Zealand but excluding the United States. In addition to the KORUS FTA, the
partner since the conclusion of NAFTA. United States has an FTA with Singapore. It has been negotiating with Malaysia and Thailand, but these negotiations have been slow or dormant. In September 2008, the United States announced it would launch negotiations to join the Trans-Pacifi c Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (also called the P-4 agreement), a trade
Failure of the KORUS FTA could be viewed as a serious blow to this competitive liberalization strategy. With FTAs throughout East Asia proliferating, this would mean that over time the United States could be shut out of important regional economic groupings. 39
liberalization arrangement among Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore.
Politics - SKFTA
the U.S. could lose more of its economic clout in Korea if the administration of President Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress continue to delay the ratification of the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement (FTA). They say the European Union and China, which compete with the U.S. for global hegemony, will establish closer economic ties with Korea if the U.S. heads toward protectionism and places greater priority on domestic populism than trade. According to the Korea Customs Services (KCS) Monday, Korea's trade dependence on the U.S. stood at 9.7
Russia and other emerging economies. Analysts here say that percent in 2009, down from 24.4 percent in 1991. Korea shipped about 10.36 percent of its total outbound shipments to the world's largest economy, down from 25.8 percent over the same period, while taking 9 percent of its total imports from the U.S., down from 23.18 percent. On the other hand, Korea's trade dependence on China has increased at an explosive pace since the two countries began diplomatic relations in 1992. South Korea's exchange of agricultural and industrial goods with the world's fastest-growing economy reached 20.5 percent last year, up from 2.9 percent in 1991. Korea exported 23.9 percent of its outbound shipments to the neighboring country in 2009, up from 1.4 percent, with 16.8 percent of its imports coming from China, up from 4.2 percent. The U.S. has become less important to Korea
"Korea is the sixth-largest trading partner of the U.S. and a key Asian economy strategically located in Northeast Asia. American policymakers and businesses should be alert over their diminishing economic influence over Korea," LG Economic Research Institute managing
economically over the years, with the latter increasingly relying on China, the European Union and other economies for growth. director Oh Moon-suk said. Oh said if the U.S. continues to remain reluctant to sign the free trade pact with Korea, the Asian nation will continue to move closer toward China and the European Union, adding the EU will likely sign a free trade accord with Korea before the U.S. does.
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Must Compete for Trade Deals or Fall Behind. America can get back in the game by implementing the Korea FTA. While we have been on the sidelines, competitors like China, the European Union, India and Japan have aggressively pursued new trade deals to win fairer treatment for their exports. Asia-Pacific countries have been particularly active, and are now considering or negotiating over 75 new trade deals. The EU-Korea FTA should take effect next year and would ultimately provide EU products with a price advantage in Korea averaging 9% over nonFTA products. America must secure similar benefits to assure that our companies can gain new business and keep current sales to Korea. For example, without an FTA, U.S. pork would be priced out of South Korea within a decade, and American pork producers would lose
4. America their sixth largest export market and sales of $215 million. 5. China is Not a Fan. The Korea FTA would solidify Americas strategic relationship with South Korea, a key ally. It would bolster stepped-up U.S. efforts to respond to an increasingly assertive China and a belligerent North Korea by building strong trade, diplomatic and security
The Agreement would also help America compete and win in Koreas $1.3 trillion The FTAs advantages would help U.S. companies and workers win back business from China and others in this vital Asian market.
relationships with South Korea and other Pacific allies. economy. In recent years, China has muscled aside the United States, and is Koreas #1 supplier.
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agenda associated with KORUS will potentially double US exports within 5 years, subsequently saving approximately 340,000 US jobs and creating more than 70,000 new ones. This agreement will help American companies to sell their services and goods to Korea, the 12th largest world economy, by doing away with import taxes to Korea.
Washington should be expanding American investment and trade opportunities throughout East Asia . The starting point should be ratifying the FTA with the Republic of Korea (ROK). South Korea possesses one of the world's largest economies number 13 at
last count and is among the top dozen trading nations. Total bilateral trade between the U.S. and the ROK ran about $85 billion in 2008. The seventh largest merchandise trading partner of the U.S., the ROK is a major importer of aircraft, cereals, chemicals, machinery, and plastics. Even
a small expansion of U.S.-ROK trade would offer a significant benefit for America's economy. Despite its stunning economic success due in large part to
exports, the South has never welcomed international competition. Korean business professor Moon Hwy-chang admits: "Korea has not been a very open economy." The FTA helps change that. Jeffrey Schott of the Peterson Institute for International Economics reported: " The
U.S.-Korea pact covers more trade than any other U.S. trade agreement except the North American Free Trade Agreement" and "opens up substantial new opportunities for bilateral trade and investment in goods and services ." Roughly 95 percent of trade would become duty free within three
years and most of the other tariffs would be lifted within a decade. The accord would provide particularly significant benefits for U.S. agriculture, financial services companies, and American firms seeking access to ROK government procurement.
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Innovators identified a series of problems that uniquely affect small businesses. Smaller companies and entrepreneurs continue to face a real credit crunch that began with the global financial crisis. Even successful companies are finding it difficult to access sufficient capital to grow their businesses, which is limiting overall economic growth. Smaller businesses also find it more difficult to access global markets, overcome barriers to entry into new countries, and address counterfeiting and piracy abroad. Many companies, big and small, worry about the ability of U.S. companies and workers to compete globally on an uneven playing field . Foreign governments continue to take aim at American jobs through a range of protectionist practices that block American sales to their markets, such as non-transparent standards, price controls, censorship of American content and massive subsidies for local firms. How Washington Can Encourage U.S. Innovation Happily, these are all issues that can be addressed through smart public policy. Based on the
feedback from our conference, Congress should focus on five critical areas to create an enabling environment for Americas innovative businesses and workers in the global marketplace: 1. Create
a more open, rules-based, competitive trading environment through the conclusion and passage of new and innovative trade agreements. These binding commitments with our trading partners create win-win opportunities for economic growth and development of new innovations to address common global challenges. The pending U.S. trade agreements with Korea, Panama and Colombia would be excellent places to start. 2. Ensure that value is being delivered back home for U.S. innovation. In particular , lack of protection in foreign markets for U.S. innovation chills investment, reduces opportunities for transnational technology and knowledge collaboration and removes opportunities for exports of American products and services.
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The pending KoreaU.S. Free Trade Agreement, known as the KORUS FTA, is a ready-made vehicle for pioneering a clean energy future and ensuring greater prosperity in the two nations. If President Obama is genuinely serious about clean energy and successfully expanding markets
for American entrepreneurs, he should submit the KORUS FTA for congressional ratification without further delay, according to the November 2010 timetable he indicated during the recent G-20 summit in Toronto. Freer Trade Is Key to Clean Energy and Protecting the Environment When a country lowers its barriers to trade, it opens its economy to competitive opportunities for greater efficiency and dynamic economic growth. Competition spurs the movement of labor and capital from industries that cannot compete to those that can, enabling a nation to both produce more efficiently and attract new investment. The need to adhere to such a strategy is no less important today than in previous eras. Free
trade expands the base for vibrant innovation and growth. In countries around the world, energy technology is no exception. Indeed, the most practical improvements in clean energy technology efficiency and environmental protection over the past decades have not stemmed from government mandates, but by freer trade and economic freedom. The KORUS FTA: Compelling Case for Advancing Green Growth In 2007,
trade has been shown to be one of the greatest drivers of technological change. Clean the U.S. and South Korea concluded a free trade pact that in part reflects and in part encourages a virtuous economic relationship between the two nations. The agreement has been characterized as strong and balanced and as an agreement for the 21st century. Key features of the agreed trade deal include reducing tariff rates on 95 percent of all consumer and industrial products, improving transparency and intellectual property rights protection, and addressing standards and regulations. Indeed, if timely ratified, America firmly stands to gain from the KORUS FTA, particularly given its competitive edge in innovation, commercialization, and
South Korea has been heralded as a leader in crafting green growth strategies in recent years. Since 2008, South Korean President Lee Myung-baks long-term vision of Low Carbon, Green Growth has driven policy to dramatically expand clean energy usage. Significant components of the plan aim to attract international partners and foreign technologies . This presents a tremendous market opportunity for American entrepreneurs . According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, most if not all of the targeted economic sectors under the green growth vision are in sectors of U.S. competitive strength. Key U.S. exports to
deployment of advanced technologies. those sectors include industrial electronic machinery, auto parts, power generation equipment, and scientific equipment. These exports are all directly or indirectly
America has a comparative advantage over South Korea in commercializing and deploying clean energy technology such as solar, wind, nuclear, and smart grids, the trade pact would capitalize on an existing strength. The U.S. need not fear clean energy competition from South Korea. Business and workers in both countries would benefit.
related to clean energy technology. Time for Action As
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***AFF Answers
Politics - SKFTA
SKFTA - No
SKFTA fails-South Korea faces issues with SKFTA
Peoples Daily Online, June 27, 2011 (S Korea's Lee, opposition leader fail to close gap over U.S. FTA, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90851/7421835.html) South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and the opposition leader failed to settle their differences Monday over a free trade agreement with the United States and other pending issues. Lee held the meeting, the first of its kind in nearly three years,
with Sohn Hak-kyu, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, an apparent shot at bridging the yawning gap between the government and the opposition camp on six pressing national issues. The presidential office Choeng Wa Dae said Lee called for "active support" of
the opposition for ratifying the two-way free trade pact with Washington, while Sohn, considered the strongest opposition presidential aspirant, insisted on renegotiation of what he sees as a lopsided deal favoring Washington. The trade accord, originally signed in 2007, has been awaiting legislative approval both in Seoul and Washington due to differences over auto trade imbalances and U.S. beef imports. The two countries reached supplementary agreements last December, but opposition lawmakers here believe Seoul made too much concession in negotiations.
Lee and Sohn also discussed lowering college tuition fees amid ongoing student protests, but they only agreed in principle that tuition should be cut and colleges need reforms, according to Cheong Wa Dae. Also on the table were household debts, job creation, a scandal
involving local savings bank and a supplementary budget. Lee refused to draw up an extra budget the opposition demands.
both chambers had been urging Obama to submit the deals to Congress, but after Tuesdays announcement, GOP leaders charged that the attachment of a three-year renewal of the Trade Adjustment Assistance program to the South Korea deal was a highly partisan move. Including unrelated and highly controversial provisions, like the TAA spending
program, into the Korean trade agreement violates the letter and spirit of this law, Hatchs office said Thursday. The White House and Democrats have defended the deals. The addition of Trade Adjustment Assistance to the Korea Free Trade Agreement is entirely consistent with precedent, a Senate Finance Committee Democratic aide said Thursday. As you may recall, Trade Adjustment Assistance was added to the implementing language of the NAFTA agreement a trade agreement many of the current members of the Senate supported in the past. Meanwhile, some Democrats are also expressing opposition to the deals. House Democratic Conference Chairman John Larson (Conn.) on Thursday announced that he would not back the Colombia deal over concerns on labor rights.
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SKFTA - No
Boycott delays SKFTA passage
New York Times, June 30, 2011. (Republicans Boycott a Hearing on Trade, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/business/01trade.html?_r=1 )
WASHINGTON Senate
Republicans boycotted a preliminary hearing Thursday on free trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama, instead staging a simultaneous press conference and bringing the stop-and-go process to yet another halt. In an upside-down pair of performances, Democratic senators filled half a hearing room to declare their support for trade deals opposed by much of their partys political base, while Republican senators stood before television cameras to declare that they would not allow a hearing on legislation that much of their own base strongly supports. Senator Orrin Hatch, the ranking Republican on the Finance Committee, said Republicans were responding to a decision by the White House to include in the free trade legislation the expansion of a benefits program for workers who lose jobs to foreign competition. We made it clear time and time and time again that we would not stomach attaching a big government spending program onto these agreements, Mr. Hatch said. The president knew where we stood, and he decided to ignore those who dont agree with him. Democrats, in turn, said Republicans were blocking
legislation that would help the economy. They want the country to be in as bad shape as possible because that might help them electorally, said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York. The breakdown came less than 48 hours after the Obama administration announced a deal with House Republicans and Senate Democrats over the terms of the benefits program. An expansion passed by Democrats in 2009 lapsed at the beginning of this year. The agreement would reinstate about 60 percent of the lapsed financing for an additional two years. Democrats had demanded the deal as a condition of their support for the trade agreements. House Republicans agreed reluctantly, after several weeks of negotiations. The agreement, however, did not include Senate Republicans. Mere minutes before the Senate Finance Committee convened Thursday afternoon to consider the legislative package, the Republican members invoked Senate rules to prevent the meeting. Thats it, said a frustrated Senator Max Baucus, the committees chairman. Were waiting. Then, after all the Democrats spoke, they got up and left. The three free trade agreements, which would eliminate tariffs on cross-border transactions, would expand annual exports of American goods by about $12 billion, according to estimates by the United States International Trade Commission. It would also create new opportunities for American service providers to compete in the three countries. The pacts were negotiated by the Bush administration and are strongly backed by the United States Chamber of Commerce and other business trade groups. For most of the intervening years, Republicans pressed for a vote on the pacts while Democrats resisted. The Obama administration, which is focused on expanding trade to invigorate growth, changed that dynamic. It has sought to win Democratic support for the deals through measures to protect American workers from negative consequences. The compromise reached this week would provide $964 million in additional financing for the benefits program, almost all of which would be spent by 2013. The Obama
administration plans to submit that deal as part of the pact with South Korea, to give Democrats the assurance that it will rise or fall with the pacts. House Republicans say they will hold separate votes on the trade pact and the benefits program. Senate Republicans, many of whom oppose any additional financing for the benefits program, and who lack the power to set the terms of debate, said that their actions Thursday were an assertion of the rights of the minority party to be heard and respected. We tried everything in our power to work with the majority to find a resolution, Mr. Hatch said.
Republicans cannot prevent the legislation from leaving the committee, but they can delay it. Democrats said that continuing to do so would hurt the economy. This boycott means the opportunity to pass important job-creation legislation is now delayed, Mr. Baucus said. American workers and our economy simply cant afford to wait any longer.
SKFTA wont pass TAA battles, partisanship, and 2012 elections Wall Street Journal 5/28
(Elizabeth Williamson is a staff writer for WSJ, 5/28/11, Dispute Threatens Key Deals on Trade accessed 6/10/11 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304066504576349832361669832.html)
The centerpiece of the American trade agendaa trio of international trade pacts worth $13 billion in new U.S. exportsis in peril as Democrats and Republicans battle over a program that provides aid to U.S. workers. The dispute over the future of the 50-year-old Trade Adjustment Assistance program, which provides benefits to American workers displaced by foreign competition, is putting pending free-trade pacts with South Korea, Colombia and Panama in jeopardy by pulling them into the contentious debate over federal spending. The Obama administration and Democrats in Congress want the TAA program renewed. Some Republicans question its value and say it should be scaled back to narrow the deficit. The delay caused by the congressional sparring means it is now virtually impossible to pass the South Korea agreement before a trade pact between Korea and the European Union takes effect July 1 . That will put a wide
range of U.S. industries at a competitive disadvantage. Just a few weeks ago, the administration saw the TAA battle as surmountable. Now, unless lawmakers reach consensus soon, the trade pacts won't pass before the August recess, congressional aides say. After that, chances of passage grow slimmer as the 2012 election nears and lawmakers avoid controversial votes. "We're fighting like hell because if the vote doesn't happen by the recess, we risk it not happening in the fall," said Christopher Wenk, senior director for international policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. On Thursday, scores of business leaders visited all 100 senators to lobby for the agreements, and they plan to call on each House member in coming days.
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SKFTA No
SKFTA wont pass procedure and TAA debate Belgum 6/23
[Deborah Belgum Senior Editor, June 23, 2011 http://www.apparelnews.net/news/international/062411-South-Korea-Colombia-Panama-Free-Trade-Agreements-inDoubt/page3]
Passage of free-trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama had been expected to be approved by Congress before recessing for summer vacation Aug. 8. But now that is in doubt. Several factors are clouding quick passage of the three free-trade pacts, which have been languishing for several years over cantankerous issues that range from beef and auto imports to labor concerns . Even though most of these concerns have been resolved, one major hurdle is passage of the Trade Adjustment Assistance program , a $1 billion retraining program for U.S. workers who may lose their jobs because of these new free-trade agreements. The Obama administration is pushing hard to reinstate this retraining program , which expired in February, before the free-trade agreements move forward. But Republicans have shied away from the retraining programs expensive price tag, especially during a time of pinched budgets and debate over the nations debt ceiling. The only thing that is hanging them up [from] moving everything forward is the TAA [Trade Adjustment Assistance], said Cass Johnson, president of
the National Council of Textile Organizations, a trade group in Washington, D.C. But reports have been positive in the last week that it is close to being resolved. Once a retraining program is back on firm ground, the free-trade pacts will be sent to the Senate Committee on Finance and the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade, where final adjustments are to be made in a process called mock markups. These are committee debates, usually taking one week, on any changes that need to be made to the agreements. If any member of Congress has an idea about what should be tweaked, this is their chance to do it, said Brenda Jacobs, a trade-law and policy expert at law firm Sidley Austin in Washington, D.C. The
free-trade agreements would then be sent to the White House, which would probably introduce them as a package to the House and Senate for an up-or-down vote, meaning there would be no further debate on them . At the earliest, introduction could be made sometime in early July, but the Senate is on break July 410, and the House is in
recess July 1824. Still, some are optimistic that something can be done by the end of July. I think there is enough time to get them passed by the August recess, noted Nicole Bivens Collinson, president of trade and legislative affairs at the Washington, D.C., office of law firm Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg. I may be a lone ranger, but I believe it is still possible.
SKFTA wont Pass Obama wont budge on TAA and he need Republican support JoonAng Daily 6/20
[Jun 20 2011, [Viewpoint] Is KORUS FTA in Trouble in DC(http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2937745)TT
TAA, which was introduced in legislation in 1974, essentially amounts to a bribe to labor unions unhappy with free trade deals . It provides
workers the opportunity to apply for 156 weeks of financial aid if they can demonstrate that they lost their jobs or some income because of foreign competition. Union workers have always been best organized and instructed on how to collect TAA and the Democratic-controlled Congress put a generous amount of TAA funding in the stimulus package at the request of the union bosses in 2009. That
funding runs out in February 2011 and the unions are demanding that more TAA funding be approved before the administration submits the Korus and the other free trade agreements for ratification. Republicans are adamantly opposed to this TAA condition and have now upped the ante by threatening to hold off confirmation
hearings for Commerce Secretary-nominee John Bryson until the administration submits Korus and the other two trade pacts without any strings attached. Republicans oppose TAA because they do not believe the government owes extended compensation because of competition in the market place, particularly since the determination of damages is so imprecise and exploitable by the 6.9 percent of private sector workers in unions. More important still is the huge battle between the Republican House and the White House over legislation needed to raise the debt ceiling so that the Treasury Department can borrow more money to keep the government running.
Republicans are insisting that there be substantive budget cuts as a condition for approving an increase in the debt ceiling, and an increase in TAA funding runs completely counter to that demand. At the end of the day, as important as Korus is politically in Washington, it pales in comparison with the show-down over the national debt, which will be one of the central issues of the 2012 presidential campaign . The U.S. business community is probably more amenable to accepting TAA as a condition for passing Korus and may prevail on the Republican Congress to accept a token increase. On the other hand, if Obama stands firm on the demand for TAA, he may win the battle of convincing unions to organize for him in the 2012 election, but he will risk losing the larger war with Republicans over who is better able to create new economic growth and jobs. He will also put at risk the White House claim that the United States is back in Asia - not to mention the ability of the United States to negotiate
future trade agreements. In terms of political, strategic and economic interests, therefore, the burden is on the administration to find a way forward on the Korus FTA
The Obama administration has indicated that they will not submit legislation on these trade agreements until a deal is reached on the TAA the Trade
Adjustment Assistance, a now-retired jobs program for laid-off workers. At a time when 14 million Americans are looking for work, they actually want to hold off on these known job-creating agreements in exchange for a green light to spend more money," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said on the Senate floor, It's astonishing.
Republicans are calling for these two issues the trade deals and the TAA -- to be dealt with separately and independently, in order to move ahead with the long-stalled trade deals. Republicans warned that the time is of the essence, suggesting that as the 2012 campaign season picks up the desire and ability to tackle these trade agreements will decrease even more. "I'm convinced that the window for the administration to submit these agreements will soon pass," Hatch said, "Given the upcoming election season, I'm afraid that if these agreements aren't submitted this summer, they never will be." 47
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KORUS is based on the NAFTA model, the outstanding achievement of which was managing to lower living conditions for the majority of citizens in
three nations (United States, Mexico, and Canada) simultaneiously. KORUS has the enthusiastic support of President Barack Obama despite the fact his winning presidential campaign heavily depended on stirring up anti-NAFTA and anti-"offshoring" sentiment in Midwestern industrial states. Along with South Korea, Obama is also seeking to consummate free trade deals with Panama, distinguished by its role as a tax-avoidance haven and money-laundering center, and Colombia, whose elite has presided (see here andhere) over the killings of some 2,100 trade unionists in the past two decades .
These trade deals are unlikely to be greeted with enhtusiam by the American public, 44% of whom believe that economic conditions are growing worse,
according to an April poll. Continuing job losses to offshore subsidiaries of U.S. firmsthe Wall St. Journal reporting that U.S. firms created 2.4 million jobs outside the United States while eliminating 2.9 million American jobs since 2000have discredited "free trade" with nearly nine out of 10 Americans. 86
percent of Americans are convinced that the offshoring of jobs is a significant factor undermining Americas economic situation.
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Pending free-trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and South Korea must be voted on in Congress quickly, or risk never being approved, said Senator Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican. If we do not have an opportunity to vote on these agreements this
summer, I am afraid we never will, Hatch, the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, said today at a hearing on the Korean deal. Hatch and Senator Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, are split on the issue now delaying these pacts: renewing trade adjustment assistance for workers who lose their jobs because of overseas competition. Baucus said aid for service workers, which was put in place in 2009 and expired in February, must be extended as part of a package of measures to approve the trade pacts. Either they all pass, or none of them pass, Baucus, the panels chairman, said today. SenatorRon Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, said he wants the worker aid approved by Congress and signed into law before any votes on the free-trade pacts. Hatch questioned the worker aid, adding that the merits aside, we dont have the votes to
do this. One of the reasons I dont think this will pass, is they want $7.2 billion at a time when this country is basically broke, Hatch said. Why hold up three agreements that are beneficial to the American worker? Meanwhile, senators such as Massachusetts
Democrat John Kerry said that delaying approval of the South Korean accord may give competitors on Europe a leg up on U.S. exporters. The longer we delay the harder it is to retain our competitive advantage, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Demetrios Marantis said.
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The Republicans easily have the votes to pass the Korus FTA even if the White House cannot muster a majority of Democrats in the House. That is essentially how Bill Clinton passed Nafta in 1993 - with Republican help. But now the White House is balking at submitting Korus for ratification. Why? Because its Democratic allies in Congress are insisting that the Republicans also agree to Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) as a condition for moving forward with KORUS. TAA fight kills the agreement Southerton May 28, 2011 [Don Southerton,CEO Bridging Culture Worldwide Korea coach at Hyundai MOBIS Korea coach at Kia Motors America CEO at Bridging Culture Worldwide, May 28, 2011,
June 24, 2011,AR.]
The dispute over the future of the 50-year-old Trade Adjustment Assistance program, which provides benefits to American workers displaced by foreign competition, is putting pending free-trade pacts with South Korea, Colombia and Panama in jeopardy by pulling them into the contentious debate over federal spending. The Obama administration and Democrats in Congress want the TAA
program renewed. Some Republicans question its value and say it should be scaled back to narrow the deficit. The delay caused by the congressional sparring means it is now virtually impossible to pass the South Korea agreement before a trade pact between Korea and the European Union takes effect July 1. That will put a wide range
the administration saw the TAA battle as surmountable. Now, unless lawmakers reach consensus soon, the trade pacts wont pass before the August recess, congressional aides say. After that, chances of passage grow slimmer as the 2012 election nears and lawmakers avoid controversial votes.
of U.S. industries at a competitive disadvantage. Just a few weeks ago,
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opposition Democratic Party has complained that the revised FTA is unfavorable to Korean businesses and have demanded another round of negotiation. U.S. trade representative Ron Kirk reiterated earlier this week the Obama administrations commitment to send the agreement to Congress fairly soon, but the White House said it requires time to resolve one last step before sending the FTA to Congress. The U.S. still needs to secure the legislatures support of trade adjustment assistance intended to provide assistance to workers who have lost jobs
as a result of increased imports or shifts in production outside the U.S. the White House said Monday.
Wont Pass In Korea DNP Boycotted Meeting for Ratification JoonAng Daily 6/23
[Guess who didnt come to lunch with Lee Democratic Party lawmakers boycott event meant to promote FTA with U.S.(http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/print.asp)TT
Opposition lawmakers yesterday boycotted a Blue House luncheon designed to urge the legislatures approval of the Korea-U.S. FTA, while President Lee Myung-bak dined with the ruling party lawmakers and his aides and discussed the issue. Lee
invited lawmakers on the National Assemblys Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee and senior government officials, but representatives of the Democratic Party and Liberty Forward Party were a no-show. The
committee has 28 members and 18 of them, including its head, Nam Kyung-pil, are Grand Nationals. Sixteen GNP lawmakers attended the luncheon. Trade Minister Kim Jong-hoon, Blue House chief of staff Yim Tae-hee and Lees political, foreign, economic and public affairs senior secretaries accompanied the president at the
luncheon. According to DP spokesman Lee Yong-sup, DP lawmakers decided to turn down Lees invitation because they thought the meeting was unnecessary since the president will meet with their leader, Sohn Hak-kyu, on Monday. The
passage of the Korea-U.S. FTA was one of the main agendas to be discussed at the summit. The DP said its lawmakers will also turn down Lees other invitation for a luncheon with members of the National Assemblys
National Defense Committee, scheduled for today. The meeting is intended to push defense reform measures.
SKFTA wont pass in korea the DP will demand renegotiation. Bernama.com 6-13
[Ruling Party To Introduce South Korea-US Free, Trade Agreement Before Parliament In June http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=593602]
The ruling Grand National Party (GNP) will try to introduce the long-pending free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States to the National Assembly this month to seek parliamentary approval of the de al, a lawmaker said Monday. The
move will set in motion what is expected to be a contentious process to ratify the trade pact that was signed in 2007 and supplemented last December. Opposition parties are against endorsing the accord, claiming it favours the US, Yonhap News Agency reported. The US Congress has not yet ratified the pact either. "There are many opinions that an FTA ratification bill should be introduced during this extraordinary session," Rep Yoo Ki-june, a GNP leader on the parliamentary foreign affairs and trade committee, told Yonhap. "We will push actively to bring up the bill in this extraordinary session," he said. The parliamentary committee plans to hold a public hearing session on Thursday to discuss safeguard measures for local industries before approving the pact, Yoo said. The GNP will also form a consultation body composed of ruling and opposition party legislators as well as government officials, including ministers of foreign affairs, trade and finance, to discuss further measures, party officials said. The
planned bill is expected to encounter tough resistance, as the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) and other opposition groups claim that the pact is unbalanced in favor of the U.S. The DP has been calling for a renegotiation of the agreement. "There should first be a renegotiation" before bringing the pact before parliament, said Rep Kim Dong-chul, who is the DP's leader on the parliamentary committee.
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Wont pass on either side- its hasnt even been introduced in South Korea and Job Training blocks it in the US Arirang 6/23 [Ratification Process of KORUS FTA May Take Longer in Seoul JUN 23, 2011; Arirang News;
http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=117376&code=Ne2&category=2 ] Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan has admitted that it may take Seoul longer than Washington to ratify the Korea-US free trade agreement. The minister, who is currently in New York, told reporters on Wednesday local time, that the FTA has made no progress as it has not even been introduced to the Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification Committee at the National Assembly. Kim said that officials in Korea may be holding up the deal to approve it at the same time as Washington. However, not much headway has been made in Washington either, as the officials there are divided over the renewal of a job training program designed to help US workers.
It wont get ratified in Korea Korea Times 6/29/11 (EU free trade pact sparks debate on KORUS FTA,
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/06/116_89863.html)
To be honest, the problems both in the National Assembly here and the U.S. Congress are far more political than economic, he noted. In Korea, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) teamed up with three other minor parties to stop the ratification of the KORUS FTA which is pending at the National Assembly Foreign Affairs Committee. These opposition parties demanded that negotiators of the two countries need to sit down again to fix what they called hazardous clauses that will negatively affect the job security of farmers and service sector workers. This week, President Lee Myung-bak had a two-hour meeting with DP leader Sohn Hak-kyu, which highlighted the deep divide between the two sides.
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South Korea trade deal has not even been submitted by President Obama to Congress. Thats December, January, February, March, April, May and now June six full months half a year since Obama made his bold statement. For some reason, the president has not gotten around to sending the agreement to the U.S. Senate for approval . Is it
accelerate the economic recovery and create jobs for the millions of Americans who are still looking for work." One problem: It is now June 8, 2011, and the because the employment situation has improved so dramatically in the U.S. that we dont need the new jobs that the president claims will be created? Is it because our economic recovery is so astoundingly out of control that the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to cool it off? No? The only reason that the president is not submitting HIS free trade agreement with South Korea is because his labor union allies are demanding the expansion of a government program to provide billions of dollars to their members for retraining.
Either the agreement that Obama negotiated and signed is good for the economy or it isnt. His failure to submit the South Korea Free Trade Agreement to the U.S. Senate for ratification is either an indication that he was not telling the truth when he boldly proclaimed that the trade pact was good for American jobs, or we have to conclude that he cares more about his labor union campaign funders than the American worker. Obama Isnt Pushing Afraid to spend Political Capital Trust About Trade Tech. 3/23
[Will or wont the administration lead on trade(http://www.truthabouttrade.org/blog/22-blog/17586-will-or-wont-the-administration-lead-on-trade) TT]
When referring to the pending free trade deals, the administration deftly keeps using language to make is sound like the deals are or havent been finished, need more time, and perhaps arent ready. Aside from some items the current administration
says they wanted renegotiated, the deals were completed years ago and have simply been aging in the bureaucratic world of DC. Thats what so many have found frustrating - the political stall tactics, which is due in great part to labor unions dislike of trade agreements and the e-word...elections. As Oppenheimer said, until
Obama is ready to spend political capital the deals will remain in political purgatory.
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SBSP is an idea that appears to generate significant interest and support across a broad variety of sectors. Compared to other ideas either for space exploration or alternative energy, Space-Based Solar Power is presently not a publicly well-known idea, in part because it has no organizational advocate within government, and has not received any substantial funding or public attention for a significant period of time. Nevertheless, DoD review team leaders were virtually overwhelmed by the interest in Space-Based Solar Power that they discovered. What began as a small e-mail group became unmanageable as the social network & map-of-expertise expanded and word spread. To cope, study
The SBSP Study Group found that leaders were forced to move to an on-line collaborative group with nearly daily requests for new account access, ultimately growing to over 170 aerospace and policy experts all contributing pro-bono. This group became so large, and the need to more closely examine certain questions so acute, that the group had to be split into four additional groups. As word spread and enthusiasm grew in the space advocacy community, study leaders were invited to further expand to an open web log in
media interest was substantial. Activity was so intense that total e-mail traffic for the study There was clear interest from potential military ground customersthe Army, Marines, and USAF Security Forces, and installations personnel, all of which have an interest in clean, low environmental-impact energy sources, and especially sources that are agile without a long, vulnerable, and continuing logistics chain. There was clear interest from both traditional big aerospace, and the entrepreneurial space community. Individuals from each of the major American aerospace companies participated and contributed. The subject was an agenda item for the Space Resources Roundtable, a dedicated industry group.
collaboration with the Space Frontier Foundation. The amount of leads could be as high as 200 SBSP-related e-mails a day, and the sources of interest were very diverse. Study leaders were made aware of significant and serious discussions between aerospace companies and several major energy and construction companies both in and outside of United States. As the study progressed the study team was invited to brief in various policy circles and think tanks, including the Marshall Institute, the Center for the Study of the Presidency, the Energy Consensus Group, the National Defense Industry Association, the Defense Science Board, the Department of
Interest in the idea was exceptionally strong in the space advocacy community, particularly in the Space Frontier Foundation (SFF), National Space Society (NSS), Space Development Steering Committee, and Aerospace Technology Working Group (ATWG), all of which hosted or participated in events related to this subject during the study period. There is reason to think that this interest may extend to the greater public . The most recent survey indicating public interest in SBSP was conducted in 2005 when respondents were asked where they prefer to see their space tax dollars spent. The most popular response was collecting energy from space ,
Commerces Office of Commercial Space, and the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). with support from 35% of those polledtwice the support for the second most popular response, planetary defense (17%)and three times the support for the current How does one account for such significant interest? Perhaps it is because SBSP lies at the intersection of missionary and mercenaryappealing both to mans idealism and pragmatism, the United States special mission in the world and her citizens faith in business and technology. As an ambitious and optimistic project, it excites the imagination with its scale and grandeur, besting Americas previous projects, and opening new frontiers. Such interest goes directly to the concerns of the Aerospace commission, which stated, The aerospace industry has always been a reflection of the spirit of America. It has been, and continues to be, a sector of pioneers drawn to the challenge of new frontiers in science, air, space, and engineering. For this nation to maintain its present proud heritage and leadership in the global arena, we must remain dedicated to a strong and prosperous aerospace industry. A healthy and vigorous aerospace industry also holds a promise for the future, by kindling a passion within our youth that beckons them to reach for the stars and thereby assure our nations destiny. space exploration goals of the Moon (4%) / Mars(10%).
Cho 2007
[Dan Cho, NewScientist.com news service, Pentagon Backs Plan to Beam Solar Power From Space, October 11, 2007]
A futuristic scheme to collect solar energy on satellites and beam it to Earth has gained a large supporter in the US military. A report released yesterday by the National Security Space Office recommends that the US government sponsor projects to demonstrate solar-power-generating satellites and provide financial incentives for further private development of the technology. Space-based solar power would use kilometre-sized solar panel arrays to gather sunlight in orbit. It would then beam power down to Earth in the form of microwaves or a laser, which would be collected in antennas on the ground and then converted to electricity. Unlike solar panels based on the ground, solar power satellites placed in geostationary orbit above the Earth could operate at night and during cloudy conditions."We think we can be a catalyst to make this technology advance," said US Marine Corps lieutenant colonel Paul
Washington, DC
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Boyle, 2007
[Alan Boyle, MSNCB, Science Editor, Power From Space?, October 12, 2007]
we have found the killer application that we have been looking for to tie everything together that we're doing in space," Air Force Col. Michael V. "Coyote" Smith, who initiated the study for the Defense Department's National Security Space Office, told msnbc.com on Thursday. Space advocacy groups immediately seized on the idea and formed a new alliance to push the plan .
"I think
Plan Popular & could be done by 2012 Pentagon MSNBC '07 (MSNBC, Oct. 12, 2007, Power from space? Pentagon likes the idea. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21253268/page/2/) Herm A new Pentagon study lays out the roadmap for a multibillion-dollar push to the final frontier of energy: a satellite system that collects gigawatts worth of solar power and beams it down to Earth. The military itself could become the anchor tenant for such a power source, due to the current high cost of fueling combat operations abroad, the study says. The 75-page report, released Wednesday, says new economic incentives would have to be put in place to close the business case for space-based solar power systems but it suggests that the technology could be tested in orbit by as early as 2012.
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program enjoyed near-unanimous support, being approved and endorsed by the Bush administration and by both Democratic and Republican Congresses. However, due to its congressionally authorized funding falling victim to Office of
Management and Budget cuts, earmarks and other unexpected financial diversions, Constellation fell behind schedule. An administration-appointed review committee concluded the Constellation program was "not viable" due to inadequate funding.
Plans massively popular --- all of Congress supports it Dinerman 10 (Taylor, Consultant Department of Defense and Reporter Space Review, The Collapse of NASA?, Hudson New York, 6-9,
http://www.hudson-ny.org/1366/the-collapse-of-nasa)
The resistance to Obama's program on Capitol Hill and elsewhere is fierce. NASA Administrator Bolden has literally had to
beg his own employees for support. Meanwhile, supporters and skeptics are at each others throats. The damage this is doing to personal and professional relationships inside the space industry is real and lasting. Ever since it was created by President Eisenhower in 1958, NASA has had a powerful grip on the American imagination. As Tom Wolfe put it: " The 'space race' became a fateful test and presage of the entire Cold War conflict between the 'superpowers' the Soviet Union and the United Startes. Surveys showed that people throughout the world looked upon the competition as a preliminary contest proving final and irresistible power to destroy." After a rough start, the Apollo Moon landing in 1969 ended the first phase of the space race with a decisive American victory. The pictures of astronauts standing next to the flag became a permanent part of America's global image. So much so, in fact, that US enemies almost always subscribe to the belief that the Moon landings were faked. After Apollo, it became commonplace to say that NASA lost its way. On the contrary, the agency has, with remarkable tenacity, pursued an human space exploration agenda that has provided the framework for almost everything it does. First, they pursued a low-cost, safe,reliable Earth to Orbit transportation system, The Shuttle, which was supposed to provide; but due to cost-cutting by the Nixon administration and Congressional Democrats, led by Edward Kennedy and Walter Mondale in the early 1970s, it failed to live up to its potential. The agency also wanted a Space Station as a stepping stone to the Solar System. The existing International Space Station (ISS) may not be in the ideal orbit for interplanetary exploration, but it does exist and this alone is a tribute to NASA's powerful institutional will. A permanent base on the Moon, and eventually a manned landing on Mars, were the ultimate goals of the US space agency. President George W. Bush's Science Advisor, John Marbuger, explained what the end result would be during a speech in March 2006: "As I see it, questions about the the (NASA) Vision boil down to whether we want to incorporate the Solar System in our economic sphere or not." The proposal to replace the shuttle with a commercial taxi service has gotten a lot of attention. The concept is not new. During the Bush administration, NASA set up the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) contracts, the of which were to provide cargo services to the Space Station. It was hoped that later ones would be able to carry astronauts. Sadly, the firms involved have found that they needed a lot more time and money than originally planned. Whether Bolden said it or not, there is a better than even chance that at some point they will need to be bailed out. At one time, the US-manned space program was something that the overwhelming majority of Americans could be proud of; with a few exceptions, it enjoyed strong bipartisan and popular support. It has so much visibility that many people believe it gets as much as 20 percent of the federal budget, instead of the the real number which is a little more than one-half of one percent. Now it is the object of a nasty political squabble -- mostly between the White House and
Congress as a whole, rather than between Republicans and Democrats. While a few leaders in Washington are seeking a compromise, the fight over Constellation has been getting nasty. Senator Richard Shelby (R Al.), the most eager supporter of the Moon Mission, may attach an amendment forbidding NASA to cancel the Constellation to a "must pass" military appropriations bill. This would insure the programs survival at least until 2012.
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with deep bipartisan support . Throwing it on the ash heap is a sign of just how little this administration really values the idea of working
across party lines.
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For all the rhetoric about cutting government spending, NASAs space mission remains sacred in Congress. A handful of powerful lawmakers are so eager to see an American on the moon or even Mars that they effectively mandated NASA to spend not less than $3 billion for a new rocket project and space capsule in the 2011 budget bill signed by the president last week. NASA has repeatedly raised concerns about the timeframe for building a smaller rocket but the new law expresses
Congresss will for the space agency to make a massive heavy-lift rocket that can haul 130 metric tons, like the ones from the days of the Apollo.
Congressional approval of the plan all while $38 billion is being cut elsewhere in the federal government reflects not only the power of key lawmakers from NASA-friendly states, but the enduring influence of major contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing in those states.
NASA policies dont require political capital- bipartisan support ensures popularity SpacePolitics.com, 5/25/2011, Congressional support for NASAs MPCV decision,
http://www.spacepolitics.com/category/congress/page/2/
The key decision that NASA announced Tuesday regarding the agencys space exploration plans was not too surprising, and perhaps a bit underwhelming: NASA is transitioning its existing work on the Orion spacecraft to the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle
(MPCV). In the NASA statement and media teleconference later that day, NASA indicated there would be effectively no major modifications to Orion to become MPCV, but offered little in the way of specifics on the cost of the MPCV or when it would be ready to begin flights. The MPCV was included in the NASA authorization act last year with a specific requirement to continue to advance development of the human safety features, designs, and systems in the Orion project. There was, then, an expectation that NASA would do what it announced yesterday, and transition its existing Orion contract to the MPCV; there was also some frustration in Congress that NASA was taking a long time to make that decision. Now, though, that NASA has done just that, members of Congress are expressing their support for that move, while pressing NASA to also make a decision soon on the Space Launch System (SLS) heavy-lifter. This is a good thing, Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) said in a statement. The decision shows real progress towards the goal of exploring deep space and also helps Florida, he added, since hundreds will be employed at the Kennedy Space Center to process the MPCV for launch. The release also notes that NASA administrator Charles Bolden called Nelson personally to inform him of the decision. In that call, Bolden told the senator that soon NASA will be making further decisions with regard to the transportation architecture of a big deep space rocket. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) also supported the decision. After more than a year of uncertainty and delay, NASA has come to the same conclusion that it reached years ago Orion is the vehicle that will advance our human exploration in space, she said in a statement (not yet posted online.) She reminded NASA, though, that it must continue to follow law and announce plans for the SLS. NASA needs to follow this important step by quickly finalizing and announcing the heavy lift launch vehicle configuration so that work can accelerate and the requirements of the law can be met. This was the only fiscally and technologically prudent decision that NASA could make, Rep. Pete Olson (R-TX) said in a statement. With this decision NASA can continue to build on current projects and investments rather than further delay with unnecessary procurements. NASAs decision means that Lockheed Martins contract to work on Orion/MPCV will continue, and thats a relief for people in Colorado, where much of that work is taking place. In a joint statement,
Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) and Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO) noted the decision protects over 1,000 aerospace jobs, and nearly 4,000 total jobs, in the state , which to them appeared to be just as
important as the MPCVs role in future human space exploration. With the Space Shuttle Endeavors [sic] final launch, Orion represents the next frontier in human space exploration and has the potential to stir the imagination of a new generation of young scientists while giving our economy a much needed boost, Bennet said.
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Winners Win
WINNERS WIN.
Singer 9 (Jonathan -- senior writer and editor for MyDD. Singer is perhaps best known for his various interviews with prominent politicians. His interviews have included
John Kerry, Walter Mondale, Bob Dole, Michael Dukakis, and George McGovern, Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Tom Vilsack. He has also also interviewed dozens of senatorial, congressional and gubernatorial candidates all around the country. In his writing, Singer primarily covers all aspects of campaigns and elections, from polling and fundraising to opposition research and insider rumors. He has been quoted or cited in this capacity by Newsweek, The New York Times, USA Today, The Politico, and others. My Direct Democracy, 3-3-09, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428)
From the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey: Despite the country's struggling economy and vocal opposition to some of his policies, President Obama's favorability rating is at an all-time high. Two-thirds feel hopeful about his leadership and six in 10 approve of the job he's doing in the White House. "What is amazing here is how much political capital Obama has spent in the first six weeks," said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "And against that , he stands at the end of this six weeks with as much or more capital in the bank." Peter Hart gets at a key point. Some believe that political capital is finite, that it can be used up. To an extent that's true. But it's important to note, too, that political capital can be
regenerated -- and, specifically, that when a President expends a great deal of capital on a measure that was difficult to enact and then succeeds, he can build up more capital. Indeed, that appears to be what is happening with Barack Obama, who went to the mat to pass the stimulus package out of the gate, got it passed despite nearunanimous opposition of the Republicans on Capitol Hill, and is being rewarded by the American public as a result. Take a look
at the numbers. President Obama now has a 68 percent favorable rating in the NBC-WSJ poll, his highest ever showing in the survey. Nearly half of those surveyed (47 percent) view him very positively. Obama's Democratic Party earns a respectable 49 percent favorable rating. The Republican Party, however, is in the toilet, with its worst ever showing in the history of the NBC-WSJ poll, 26 percent favorable. On the question of blame for the partisanship in Washington, 56 percent place the onus on the Bush administration and another 41 percent place it on Congressional Republicans. Yet just 24 percent blame Congressional Democrats, and a mere 11 percent
with President Obama seemingly benefiting from his ambitious actions and the Republicans sinking further and further as a result of their knee-jerked opposition to that agenda, there appears to be no reason not to push forward on anything from universal healthcare to energy reform to ending the war in Iraq.
blame the Obama administration. So at this point,
VICTORIES INCREASE CAPITAL. Lee 5 (Andrew, Claremont McKenna College, Invest or Spend? Political Capital and Statements of Administration Policy in the First Term of the George W. Bush
Presidency, Georgia Political Science Association Conference Proceedings, http://a-s.clayton.edu/trachtenberg/2005%20Proceedings%20Lee.pdf)
To accrue political capital, the president may support a particular lawmakers legislation by issuing an SAP urging support, thereby giving that legislator more
pull in the Congress and at home. The president may also receive capital from Congress by winning larger legislative majorities. For example, the presidents successful
The president may also receive political capital from increased job favorability numbers, following through with purported policy agendas, and defeating opposing party leaders (Lindberg 2004). Because political capital diminishes, a president can invest in policy and legislative victories to maintain or increase it. For example, President George W. Bush invests his political capital in tax cuts which he hopes will yield returns to the economy and his favorability numbers. By investing political capital, the president assumes a return on investment.
efforts at increasing Republican representation in the Senate and House would constitute an increase in political capital.
WINNERS WIN ON CONTROVERSIAL POLICIES. Ornstein 1 (Norman, American Enterprise Institute, How is Bush Governing? May 15, http://www.aei.org/events/filter.,eventID.281/transcript.asp)
The best plan is to pick two significant priorities, things that can move relatively quickly. And in an ideal world, one of them is going to be a little bit tough, where it's a battle , where you've got to fight, but then your victory is all the sweeter. The
other matters but you can sweep through fairly quickly with a broad base of support and show that you're a winner and can accomplish something. Bush did just that, picking one, education, where there was a fairly strong chance. Something he campaigned on, people care about, and a pretty strong chance that he could get a bill through with 80, 85 percent support of both houses of Congress and both parties. And the other that he picked, and there were other choices, but he picked the tax cuts.
use every bit of political capital you have to achieve early victories that will both establish you as a winner, because the key to political power is not the formal power that you have. Your ability to coerce people to do what they otherwise would not do . Presidents don't have a lot of that formal power. It's as much psychological as it is real. If you're a winner and people think you're a winner, and that issues come up and theyre tough but somehow you're going to prevail, they will act in anticipation of that. Winners win. If it looks like you can't get things done, then you have a steeply higher hill to climb with what follows. And as you use your political capital, you have to recognize that for presidents, political capital is a perishable quality, that it evaporates if it isn't used . That's a lesson, by the way, George W. Bush learned firsthand from his father. That if you use it and you succeed, it's a gamble, to be sure, you'll get it back with a very healthy premium.
What flows from that as well is,
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Winners Win
Winners win
Halloran 10 (Liz, Reporter NPR, For Obama, What A Difference A Week Made, National Public Radio, 4-6,
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125594396)
Amazing what a win in a major legislative battle will do for a president's spirit. (Turmoil over spending and leadership at
the Republican National Committee over the past week, and the release Tuesday of a major new and largely sympathetic book about the president by New Yorker editor David Remnick, also haven't hurt White House efforts to drive its own, new narrative.) Obama's Story Though the president's national job approval ratings failed to get a boost by the passage of the health care overhaul his numbers have remained steady this year at just under 50 percent he has earned grudging respect even from those who don't agree with his policies . "He's achieved something that virtually everyone in Washington thought he couldn't," says Henry Olsen, vice president and director of the business-oriented American Enterprise Institute's National Research Initiative. "And that's given him confidence." The protracted health care battle looks to have taught the White House something about power, says presidential historian Gil Troy a lesson that will inform Obama's pursuit of his initiatives going forward. "I think that Obama realizes that presidential power is a muscle, and the more you exercise it,
the stronger it gets," Troy says. "He exercised that power and had a success with health care passage, and now he wants to make sure people realize it's not just a blip on the map." The White House now has an opportunity, he says, to change the narrative that had been looming that the Democrats would lose big in the fall midterm elections, and that Obama was looking more like one-term President Jimmy Carter than twotermer Ronald Reagan, who also managed a difficult first-term legislative win and survived his party's bad showing in the midterms. Approval Ratings Obama is exuding confidence since the health care bill passed, but his approval ratings as of April 1 remain unchanged from the beginning of the year, according to Pollster.com. What's more, just as many people disapprove of Obama's health care policy now as did so at the beginning of the year. According to the most recent numbers: Forty-eight percent of all Americans approve of Obama, and 47 disapprove. Fifty-two percent disapprove of Obama's health care policy, compared with 43 percent who approve. Stepping Back From A Precipice Those watching the reemergent president in recent days say it's difficult to imagine that it was only weeks ago that Obama's domestic agenda had been given last rites, and pundits were preparing their pieces on a failed presidency. Obama himself had framed the health care debate as a referendum on his presidency. A loss would have "ruined the rest of his presidential term," says Darrell West, director of governance studies at the liberal-leaning Brookings Institution. "It would have made it difficult to address other issues and emboldened his critics to claim he was a failed president." The conventional wisdom in Washington after the Democrats lost their supermajority in the U.S. Senate when Republican Scott Brown won the Massachusetts seat long held by the late Sen. Edward Kennedy was that Obama would scale back his health care ambitions to get something passed. "I thought he was going to do what most presidents would have done take two-thirds of a loaf and declare victory," says the AEI's Olsen. "But he doubled down and made it a vote of confidence on his presidency, parliamentary-style." "You've got to be impressed with an achievement like that," Olsen says. But Olsen is among those who argue that, long-term, Obama and his party would have been better served politically by an incremental approach to reworking the nation's health care system, something that may have been more palatable to independent voters Democrats will need in the fall. "He would have been able to show he was listening more, that he heard their concerns about the size and scope of this," Olsen says. Muscling out a win on a sweeping health care package may have invigorated the president and provided evidence of leadership , but, his critics say, it remains to be seen whether Obama and his party can reverse what the polls now suggest is a
losing issue for them.
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item is rarely influenced by anything a president does. Although journalists (and political scientists) often focus on the legislative endgame to gauge presidential influence will the President swing enough votes to get his preferred legislation enacted? this mistakes an outcome with actual evidence of presidential influence. Once we control for other factors a member of Congress ideological and partisan leanings, the political leanings of her constituency, whether shes up for reelection or not we can usually predict how she will vote without needing to know much of anything about what the president wants. (I am ignoring the importance of a presidents veto power for the moment.) Despite the much publicized and celebrated instances of presidential arm-twisting during the legislative endgame, then, most legislative outcomes dont depend on presidential lobbying. But this is not to say that presidents lack
influence. Instead, the primary means by which presidents influence what Congress does is through their ability to determine the alternatives from which Congress must choose. That is, presidential power is largely an exercise in agenda-setting not arm-twisting. And we see this in the Sotomayer nomination. Barring a major scandal, she will almost certainly be confirmed to the Supreme Court whether
Obama spends the confirmation hearings calling every Senator or instead spends the next few weeks ignoring the Senate debate in order to play Halo III on his Xbox . That is, how senators decide to vote on Sotomayor will have almost nothing to do with
Obamas lobbying from here on in (or lack thereof). His real influence has already occurred, in the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee.
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power is widely credited with dictating public policy, the truth is that presidential influence over domestic law making is quite limited. Presidential speeches (as in the case of Obamas nationally televised September address to restart health reform) can influence the agenda of issues for DC insiders and all Americans. But Constitutional checks and balances prevent any president from having his way with Congress and this situation was exacerbated in 2009 and 2010 by Republican obstructionist tactics. In practice, Obama and his aides were often little more than frustrated witnesses to Congressional maneuvers and delays .
POLITICAL CAPITAL IS IRRELEVANT -- EMPIRICALLY PROVEN. Bond & Fleisher 96. [Jon R. and Richard, professor in Political Science - Texas A&M and Professor in Political Science. Fordham - 1996.
"The President in Legislation] In sum, the
evidence presented in this chapter provides little support for the theory that the president's perceived leadership, skills are associated with success on roll call votes in Congress. Presidents reputed as highly skilled do not win consistently more often than should be expected. Even the effects of the partisan balanced Congress, the president's popularity, and, the cycle of decreasing influence over the course of his term. Presidents reputed as unskilled do not win consistently less often relative to. Moreover, skilled presidents do not win significantly more often than unskilled presidents on either important votes or close votes, in which skills have the greatest potential to affect the outcome. Because of the difficulty of establishing a definitive test of the skills theory, some may argue that it is premature to
reject this explanation of presidential success based on the tests reported in this chapter. It might be argued that these findings by themselves do not deny that leadership skill is an important component of presidential-congressional relations. Failure to find systematic effects in general does not necessarily refute the anecdotes and case studies demonstrating the importance of skills.
PRESIDENTIAL CAPITAL ISNT SIGNIFICANT PARTY SUPPORT AND DIVISIONS ARE KEY Bond & Fleisher 96. [Jon R. and Richard, professor in Political Science - Texas A&M and Professor in Political Science. Fordham - 1996.
"The President in Legislation] Neustadt is correct that weak political parties in American politics do not bridge the gap created by the constitutional separation of powers. We would add: neither does skilled presidential leadership or popularity with the public. In fact, the forces that Neustadt stressed as the antidote for weak parties are even less successful in linking the president and Congress than are weak parties. Our findings indicate that members of Congress provide levels of support for the President that are generally consistent with their partisan and ideological predispositions. Because party and ideology are relatively stable,
facing a Congress made up of more members predisposed to support the president does increase the likelihood of success on the floor. There is, however, considerable variation in the behavior of the party factions. As expected, crosspressured members are typically divided, and when they unify, they unify against about as often as they unify for the president. Even members of the party bases who have reinforcing partisan and ideological predispositions frequently fail to unify for or against the president's position. Our analysis of party and committee leaders in Congress reveals that support from
congressional leaders is associated with unity of the party factions. The party bases are likely to unify only if the party and committee leader of a party take the same position. But party and committee leaders within each party take opposing stands on a significant proportion of presidential roll calls. Because members of the party factions and their leaders frequently fail to unify around a party position,
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EMPIRICALLY DENIED SKFTA HAS BEEN STALLED IN THE SENATE SINCE 2007 RELATIONS HAVENT COLLAPSE. ALT CAUS --- ANTI-AMERICANISM, POLICY DIFFERENCES. Bandow 3 (Doug, Senior Fellow Cato Institute and Robert A. Taft Fellow American Conservative Defense Alliance,
Ending the Anachronistic Korean Commitment, Parameters, 33, Summer, http://www.carlisle.army.mil/USAWC/PARAMETERS/03summer/bandow%20.pdf) changing perceptions of the threat posed by the North, combined with increasing national self-confidence in South Korea, are challenging bilateral relations. South Korean frustrations are not new, but they have gained greater force than ever before. Explains Kim Sung-han of the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security, Anti-Americanism is getting intense. It used to be widespread and not so deep. Now its getting widespread and deep.9 Although polls show that a
The United States established a permanent troop presence in the Korean peninsula with the onset of the Korean War. But majority of South Koreans still supports the US troop presence, a majority also pronounces its dislike of America. Some Americans hope that the sentiments will recede and everything will go back to normal. However, the generation grateful for American aid in the Korean War is passing from the scene. Younger people associate the United States more with US support for various military regimes and the indignities (and tragedies) of a foreign troop presence. Policy differences between Seoul and Washington also will likely worsen as the nuclear crisis proceeds. In late January, President Kim Dae-jung offered veiled criticism of the United States: Sometimes we need to talk to the other party, even if we dislike the other party.10 At the same time, Washington was pushing the issue toward the UN Security Council, which, in Seouls view, would short-circuit the diplomatic process. Shortly thereafter the Bush Administration pointedly observed that military action remained an option, generating a near hysterical response from Seoul. Indeed, Roh Moo-hyun, who once called for the withdrawal of US forces, ran on an explicit peace platform that sharply diverged from US policy: We have to choose between war and peace, he told one rally.11 He owes his narrow election victory to rising popular antagonism against the United States and particularly the presence of American troops. Of course, he later tried to moderate his position and called for strengthening the alliance. Yet he complained that so far, all changes in the size of US troop strength here have been determined by the United States based on its strategic consideration, without South Koreas consent.12 Moreover, proposed reforms of the relationshipadjusting the Status of Forces Agreement, moving Americas Yongsan base out of Seoul, withdrawing a small unit or two, changing the joint command (which envisions an American general commanding Korean troops in war)are mere Band-Aids. President Roh has called for a more equal relationship and promised not to kowtow to Washington. 13 But the relationship between the two countries will never be equal so long as South Korea is dependent on Washington for its defense. The United States cannot be expected to risk war on another nations terms.
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Yet South Korea has drawn closer to China over the past two decades, not farther away . Furthermore, South Korea has had increasing friction with Japan, a capitalist democracy that shares an alliance with the United States. Indeed, South Korea appears more worried about potential Japanese militarization than it is worried about actual Chinese militarization. Although the US-ROK alliance remains strong, the key point for this article is that the alliance is not a balancing alliance against China, and the recent adjustments in the alliance were neither aimed at nor the result of China. In sum, there is little evidence that South Korea will attempt to balance China, and even less evidence that South Korea fears China.
WONT STOP CHINAS RISE Kang 9 (David, Associate Professor of Government Dartmouth College, Between Balancing and Bandwagoning: South Korea's Response to
China, Journal of East Asian Studies, 1-1, Lexis) However, the
US-ROK alliance is directed more fundamentally to the North and to other contingencies, and the alliance is not a balancing exercise against China. Furthermore, there appears little evidence that the alliance has changed to accommodate rising Chinese power, and agreements on out-of-area operations do not appear to relate to China. The military aspect of
the alliance has undergone fairly major changes in the past few years; but this was driven by US out-of-area needs (particularly the "war on terror") and South Korean domestic considerations, not China. The two allies signed a base-restructuring agreement that includes the return of over sixty US camps to the South Koreans, as well as the relocation of the US Army headquarters from downtown Seoul to the countryside. By 2012, wartime operational control will return to South Korea, and the United States is reducing its South Korean deployments from 37,000 to 25,000 troops (US Department of Defense 2000). US power on the peninsula is thus actually decreasing, and as a result, it has been noted that "the U.S. will emphasize the ROK's primary leading role in defending itself. Physically, the U.S. seems not to have sufficient augmentation forces, especially ground troops" (Choi and Park 2007, 18).
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RELATS D: AT -- SK ECON
US NOT KEY TRADING PARTNER CHINA IS. GAULIER 7. [Guillaume, PhD on economic integration and real convergences, research associate with the CEPII Chinas Integration in East Asia:
Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade, http://www.economieinternationale.fr/anglaisgraph/workpap/pdf/2005/wp05-09.pdf] Since 1980, Chinas economy has grown at the rate of 9% a year and its foreign trade has expanded at the pace of almost 15% a year. Its share in world trade rose from less than 1% to about 5% in 20023. The emergence of China as a great economic and trade power is bringing far reaching changes in the world economy and in international economic relations. Chinas now holds large world market shares in traditional industries (accounting for about one third of world exports in leather and shoes, one fifth in clothing), but is also rapidly enlarging its shares in electrical and electronic exports, the fastest growing segments of world trade. In 2002 China recorded one fifth of world exports of consumer electronics and of domestic appliance. For East Asian countries, China has become a major partner, their first partner in the region . In 2003, for Japan, China was the second export market, behind the US, and its first supplier. For South- Korea, China was the first
export market and its second supplier behind the US. In 2003 and 2004, the accelerated increase of Chinas import demand (+40% and 37% respectively) has been the engine of economic growth in East Asia. The aim of the paper is
to help understand how China has achieved such outstanding trade performance and to bring to the fore the factors underlying Chinas competitiveness in world markets. It shows Chinas involvement in the international segmentation of production processes and its integration in Asian production networks are at the core of its rapid trade expansion.
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No impact even in the worst-case scenario Bandow 92 (Doug, Senior Fellow Cato Institute, The U.S.-South Korean Alliance, p. 4)
The belief that the Republic of Korea (ROK) is vital to America's security is more a product of obsolete Cold War assumptions combined with an emotional commitment resulting from the sacrifice of American blood and treasure during the Korean War than it is a rational assessment of current U.S. security interests or requirements. Neither South Korea's economic nor strategic importance to the United States is sufficient to justify the costs and risks entailed by Washington's security commitment, especially the continued presence of U.S. forces on the peninsula. True, the ROK is a significant trading partner; U.S.South Korean trade came to nearly $32 billion in 1988.5 Disruption of that commerce would be costly and unpleasant, but even a worst-case scenario involving the total loss of trade with South Korea would hardly devastate America's $5.5 trillion-a-year economy.
SKFTA IS IRRELEVANT -- NO CHANCE OF COMPLETE TRADE DISRUPTION Bandow 96 (Doug, Senior Fellow Cato Institute and Robert A. Taft Fellow American Conservative Defense
Alliance, Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World, p. 57)
Although economic ties are among the strongest aspects of the existing relationship between America and the ROK, Washington's security promise provides the United States with no tangible economic advantages. After all, U.S.-South Korean trade is valuable but not critical, accounting for about 3 percent of America's total trade and only a bit more than one-half a percent of its gross
domestic product. Bilateral trade would be affected by the removal of U.S. troops only if the ROK was overrun, an exceedingly unlikely prospect for a nation so much more advanced than its adversary.
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AT: Trade
KORUS not key to trade economic recovery will boost liberalization Drum, 6/16/11 Kevin, political blogger, Mother Jones (http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/06/why-im-not-worriedabout-free-trade) when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were pandering to anti-NAFTA sentiment before the Ohio primary in 2008, it was obvious even at the time that they weren't serious about it. As I said at the time, "The fact that Obama and Clinton jacked up the anti-NAFTA rhetoric just in time for the Ohio primary and will almost certainly abandon it on Wednesday is all the evidence I think we need." It was, namely, evidence that this was just political posturing and neither one of them was really anti-trade. For the same reason, I don't take seriously the lack of trade boosterism among the Republican candidates this year. Are they going to stick their necks out in favor of trade agreements when the economy is still in shock and registered voters everywhere are worried about their jobs being offshored? Of course not. They aren't suicidal, after all. Frankly, I'm surprised that Senate Republicans are even going so far as to use pending trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama as hostages for some of Obama's executive branch nominees. That's more support than I would have expected. If you're a trade liberalization fan, there's not much to be happy about right now. But let's be honest: during a massive economic downturn that features epic levels of unemployment, mere lack of progress isn't bad. Of course no progress is likely to be made right now. But the fact that no serious ground has been lost either just goes to show how permanently free trade has become the default position of virtually everyone on both the left and the right. When the economy picks up, support for trade liberalization will pick up right alongside it.
Dan continues to be worried. I continue to yawn. Why? Partly because of that first bolded statement:
Trade wars don't escalate Bearce 3 (David, Associate Prof. Pol. Sci. @ U. Pittsburgh, International Studies Quarterly, Grasping the Commercial Institutional Peace, 47:3, Blackwell-Synergy)
Even as we accept that such trade dispute settlement mechanisms help resolve economic conflict, it is not clear that this finding should have any strong application to the dependent variable of inter-state military conflict. On this point, it is important to distinguish between different types of inter-state conflicteconomic versus military (McMillan, 1997:39) and recognize that disputes about banana
tariffs, for example, are not likely to escalate into military confrontations. While military conflict often has economic antecedents, there is little evidence that trade wars ever become shooting wars. In terms of inter-state disagreements with real potential for military conflict, scholars highlight territorial disputes (Vasquez, 1993; Hensel, 2000; Huth, 2000). The trade
dispute settlement mechanisms embedded in regional commercial institutions simply have no jurisdiction or power to resolve highly contentious territorial disagreements.
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AT: Alliance
FTA not key to the alliancefundamental interests ensure cooperation Cooper et al 10 [William, Mark Manyin, Remy Jurenas, Michaela Platzer, Specialists in Trade + Asian Affairs @
Congressional Research Affairs, "The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications," 11-12, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34330.pdf]
The United States and South Korea negotiated the KORUS FTA in part as a means to restore the health of a critical foreign policy and national security alliance. 158 While the talks were ongoing, the KORUS FTA sometimes was discussed as a possible counterweight to the bilateral friction that was occurring over issues such as how to manage relations with North Korea and the repositioning of U.S. troops in South Korea. These tensions decreased markedly in 2007, following the Bush Administrations decision to place greater
emphasis on engagement and negotiations with North Korea. The election of Lee, who has stressed the importance of rebuilding U.S.-South Korean ties has improved relations further. Thus, with the alliance apparently on firmer ground, the KORUS FTA no longer appears as an exceptional area of bilateral cooperation . Although the FTAs utility as an acute salve for the alliance has been reduced, some argue it could help to boost the alliance, over the medium and longer term,
by deepening bilateral economic and political ties. Entering into an FTA, some argue, is a way to help reorient the alliance to adapt to the changes on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia. However, in concrete terms, it is difficult to see how the KORUS FTA would make a
significant difference in the strategic relationship, as it is unlikely to alter either countrys fundamental interests on the Peninsula or in Northeast Asia.
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Meyer 3
[Carlton, U.S. Marine Corps, The Mythical North Korean Threat, http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm]
Even if North Korea employs a few crude nuclear weapons, using them would be suicidal since it would invite instant retaliation from the United States. North Korea lacks the technical know-how to build an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, despite the hopes and lies from the National Missile Defense proponents in the USA. North Korea's industrial production is almost zero, over two million people have starved in recent years, and millions of homeless nomads threaten internal revolution. The US military ignores this reality and retains old plans for the deployment of 450,000 GIs to help defend South Korea, even though the superior South Korean military can halt any North Korean offensive without help from a single American soldier. American forces are not even required for a counter-offensive. A North Korean attack would stall after a few intense days and South Korean
forces would soon be in position to overrun North Korea. American air and naval power along with logistical and intelligence support would ensure the rapid collapse of the North Korean army.
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bilateral FTAs, the most substantial one being Korea US FTA. However, even if the United States were ultimately to lose competition in economic regionalism to China, that would not automatically entail the advent of Sino-centric political institutions in the region. Economic integration does not necessarily result in stronger intergovernmental or supranational arrangements of political nature. Indeed, when integration makes great progress in economic area, member-states may deliberately constrain it in other, especially political, spheres, so as not to put their national sovereignty at risk. Even the European Unions experience testifies to such a hedging strategy (Busygina and Filippov 2010).East Asian countries, including Japan and both Koreas, are well aware of the risks inherent in their high economic dependence on China. Therefore they are seeking to offset such risks by maintaining political and strategic ties to the actors capable of balancing a rising China, especially the United States. Both Tokyo and Seoul have no intention of abandoning their alliances with Washington. Indeed, they are even strengthening strategic cooperation with America in some areas. There are reasons to believe that even North Korea is wary of growing Chinas might and is interested in the United States acting as a balancing force .Russia, although its regional clout is
much less than Americas, can be seen as another independent player, performing a balancing function. That is probably why in 2003 Pyongyang insisted on Moscow having a seat at the Six-Party talks. In other words, the Six-Party process, and a prospective institutionalized mechanism with full American and Russian membership, might be viewed as a means to maintain balance of power and prevent Chinese dominance in Northeast Asia. Economic triangle of Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul could be transformed into a political bloc, only if full-fledged Chinas hegemony arrives, similar to what happened following the Second World War, when the United States used its overwhelming predominance to build and manage Western institutional architecture. Economic leadership alone is not enough for successful hegemony. Two other requirements are militarystrategic primacy and the recognition of hegemony as legitimate from the lesser states (Alagappa 2003:53-4). It is clear that
China does not meet these requirements as yet. Its military capabilities are still no match to Americas. And in terms of moral and political legitimacy, neither Korea, nor especially Japan, appear ready to recognize Chinese primacy. To be sure, one can not rule out the emergence of Beijings hegemony in the future. However, at present it seems unlikely.
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AT: Economy
SKFTA doesnt cause job growth Chan 10 (Sewell, Washington Correspondent New York Times, Few New Jobs Expected Soon From Free-Trade Agreement With South Korea, New York Times, 12-7, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/08/business/global/08korea.html) The revised free-trade agreement with South Korea announced on Friday by the Obama administration has gotten acclaim from
corporate leaders and Congressional Republicans. Praising the deal reached by his trade negotiators, President Obama said on Monday that the accord would boost our annual exports to South Korea by $11 billion and support at least 70,000 American jobs. The Obama administration has been careful to use the verb support, not create. In fact, the effect of the agreement on aggregate output and employment in the United States would likely be negligible, according to a federal study, largely because the United States economy is so much larger than that of South Korea. Indeed, the study found, the countrys overall trade deficit with the rest of the world is likely to grow slightly as a result of the agreement.
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AT: Democracy
Democracy doesnt solve war Schwartz and Skinner 1 (Thomas and Kiron K (Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, associate professor of history and political science at Carnegie Mellon University); December 22, 2001; The Myth of Democratic Peace; JAI Press; ORBIS)
Here we show that neither
the historical record nor the theoretical arguments advanced for the purpose provide any support for democratic pacifism. It does not matter how high or low one sets the bar of democracy. Set it high enough to avoid major exceptions and you find few, if any, democracies until the Cold War era. Then there were no wars between them, of course. But that fact is better explained by NATO and bipolarity than by any shared form of government. Worse, the peace among the high-bar democracies of that era was part of a larger pacific pattern: peace among all nations of the First and Second Worlds. As for theoretical arguments, those we have seen rest on implausible premises. Why, then, is the belief that democracies are mutually pacific so widespread and fervent? The explanation rests on an old American tendency to slip and slide unawares between two uses of the word "democracy": as an objective description of regimes, and as a term of praise--a label to distinguish friend from foe. Because a democracy (term of praise) can do no wrong--or so the thinking seems to run--at least one side in any war cannot be a democracy (regime description). There lies the source of much potential mischief in foreign policy.
The Historical Problem Democratic pacifism combines an empirical generalization with a causal attribution: democracies do not fight each other, and that is because they are democracies. Proponents often present the former as a plain fact. Yet regimes that were comparatively
democratic for their times and regions have fought each other comparatively often--bearing in mind, for the purpose of comparison, that most states do not fight most states most of the time. The wars below are either counter-examples to democratic pacifism or borderline cases. Each is listed with the year it started and those combatants that have some claim to the
democratic label. American Revolutionary War, 1775 (Great Britain vs. U.S.) Wars of French Revolution (democratic period), esp. 1793, 1795 (France vs. Great Britain) Quasi War, 1798 (U.S. vs. France) War of 1812 (U.S. vs. Great Britain) Texas War of Independence, 1835 (Texas vs. Mexico) Mexican War, 1846 (U.S. vs. Mexico) Roman Republic vs. France, 1849 American Civil War, 1861 (Northern Union vs. Southern Confederacy) Ecuador-Columbia War, 1863 Franco-Prussian War, 1870 War of the Pacific, 1879 (Chile vs. Peru and Bolivia) Indian Wars, much of nineteenth century (U.S. vs. various Indian nations) Spanish-American War, 1898 Boer War, 1899 (Great Britain vs. Transvaal and Orange Free State) World War I, 1914 (Germany vs. Great Britain, France, Italy, Belgium, and U.S.) Chaco War, 1932 (Chile vs. Argentina) EcuadorPeru, 1941 Palestine War, 1948 (Israel vs. Lebanon) Dominican Invasion, 1967 (U.S. vs. Dominican Republic) Cyprus Invasion, 1974 (Turkey vs. Cyprus) Ecuador-Peru, 1981 Nagorno-Karabakh, 1989 (Armenia vs. Azerbaijan) Yugoslav Wars, 1991 (Serbia and Bosnian-Serb Republic vs. Croatia and Bosnia; sometimes Croatia vs. Bosnia) Georgia-Ossetia, 1991 (Georgia vs. South Ossetia) Georgia-Abkhazia, 1992 (Georgia vs. Abkhazia and allegedly Russia) Moldova-Dnestr Republic, 1992 (Moldova vs. Dnestr Republic and allegedly Russia) Chechen War of Independence, 1994 (Russia vs. Chechnya) Ecuador-Peru, 1995 NATO-Yugoslavia, 1999 India-Pakistan, 1999
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