A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS, VEHICULAR FLOWRATE AND SPEED WITH REFERENCE TO ROUTE F050 BP-KLUANG

Associate Professor Dr. Mohd Idrus Hj. Mohd Masirin1 1 Lecturer in Civil Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia idrus@uthm.edu.my; idrusmas@yahoo.co.uk

Hor Peay San2

2 Researcher Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia peaysan@rocketmail.com

Abstract
Road accidents have been a major influence in community and social development. In Malaysia, each life is estimated to be worth between RM 1 million to 1.5 million. This is considered a big loss to the nation. If we relate with current vehicular increase, the rate of road accidents may be proportionate if we do not have better understanding about road accidents and vehicular behaviour. Many factors contribute to road accidents such as road conditions, drivers behaviour, etc on a particular road[9]. Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050) is the main road connecting two major towns in Johor, namely Batu Pahat and Kluang. It is a fourlane undivided highway which has a total average daily traffic (ADT) of over 25,000 veh/day. According to statistical data obtained from the PDRM Batu Pahat traffic branch, there were a total of 4,963 accidents happened during the period of 2002-2006 along Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050). This caused 160 fatalities and 1,027 injuries. A study relating flow rate and free flow speed to accident frequency was done and results show that flow rate has a strong positive effect on road accidents along Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050) while free flow speed relates to accident indirectly as an effect of flow rate. Keywords: Flow rate, free flow speed, blackspot, Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050)

important road which connects the sub-urban areas to the main town. To meet the need of growing number of road users, the road was upgraded from a two-lane undivided roadway to a four-lane undivided roadway. The upgrading project began in February 2002 and completed in August 2004. It is currently undergoing another upgrade, where a divider is being built along the roadway from KM 3 to KM 20. The Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050) is the main road connecting two major towns in Johor, namely Batu Pahat and Kluang. Before the current upgrading, it was a fourlane undivided highway throughout and currently has a total average daily traffic (ADT) over 25,000veh/day [9]. The Star newspaper reported on 4 May 2009 that Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050) has been identified as the deadliest stretch of road in Malaysia, as announced by the Works Ministry of Malaysia (KKM) [10]. The stretch recorded more than an average of 1,000 accidents and 36 deaths annually since 2006 [19].

1. Background of study
The rapid development in Batu Pahat and its surrounding areas had drawn more and more people to the district and this led to increased travelling from the sub-urban areas to the city and vice-versa. All these make Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050) a very Figure 1. Johor killer stretches (The Star, 2009) According to a previous study done by UTHM at one of the accident black-spots at Federal Route (FT

050), an average 70% of motorists exceed the speed limit of 60 km/h, travelling at a mean speed of 70 km/h with the 85th percentile speed at 85 km/h on both directions [9]. This research aims to study the effects of traffic flow rate and free flow speed on road accidents along Federal Route 50 (FT 050) Jalan Kluang from Ayer Hitam to Batu Pahat.

with each 5 km/h increase in travelling speed above 60 km/h [5].

2.2. Flow rate-speed relationship

Referring to Figure 2, assuming that speed will be equal to the free flow speed when flow equals to zero. Continuous increase in flow will then effect in a continuous decrease in speed. There will be a point, however, when the further addition of vehicles will result in a reduction in the number of vehicles passing a given point on the highway (i.e., reduction in the flow)[11]. The addition of vehicles beyond this point would result in congestion, and both the flow and speed would decrease until they both become zero [7] [8][17].

2. Literature review
2.1. Speed-accident relationship
There has been many researches done to link between vehicle speeds and road accidents and results show that these two have a well established, positive relationship [3][4]. In general, with the increase of a vehicle speed, the frequency of road accidents also increases rapidly. Speeding not only increases the risk of a crash but also the severity of the crash and most likely to cause serious injuries and even fatalities [1] [2][12]. Exceeding the speed limit was found to be a contributory factor in 5% of all accidents. However, the factor became more significant with the severity of the accident. It was reported as contributory factor in 12 per cent of fatal accidents and these accidents accounted for 14 per cent of all fatalities. Accidents that involved exceeding the speed limit as a contributory factor were over twice as likely to result in at least one fatality compared to those that did not [6][15][14]. Results showed that accident frequency for all categories of accident increased rapidly with mean speed. The total injury accident frequency increased with speed to the power of approximately 2.5. In other words, it means that a 10% increase in mean speed would results in a 26% increase in the frequency of all injury accidents. No other measures of speed were found to influence accident frequency as strongly as, or in addition to, mean speed. The percentage reduction in accident frequency per 1 mile/h reduction in mean speed implied by the relationship developed for total accidents depends on the mean speed. It ranges from 9% at a mean speed of 27 miles/h to 4% at a mean speed of 60 miles/h [16]. Kloeden et.al (1997)concluded that in a 60 km/h speed limit area, the risk of involvement in a casualty crash doubles

Figure 2. Graph of speed vs. flow

3. Research methodology
It was necessary to identify high accident sites or also known as accident black-spots [13]. Accident data from 2005 to 2007 which covers a period of 3 years is used to identify the black-spots. This is because accidents, even at very hazardous spots, are relatively rare events having a considerable random element, particularly in the time of occurrence. The accident data was collected from the local PDRM branch and JKR branch. A visit to the black-spots indentified was done later. The main purpose of the first visit to the site is to become familiar with the site and to ensure that existing plans are up to date and detailed enough to identify the specific countermeasures on the road. This visit also helps the investigator to visualize the accidents, especially those with common characteristics. Photographs and videos were taken as tool aid for the research. Data collection was done at the identified blackspots. Spot speed and traffic volume count was done in a particular week. Spot speed was carried out at non

peak hours where flow rate was low so that free flow speed could be calculated. Traffic volume on the other hand was done only during peak hours of the day i.e. 0730-0930 hr, 1200-1400 hr and 1700-1900 hr. With the data obtained, statistical methodology was used to link speed and traffic volume with accident frequency along Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050) using Microsoft Excel 2007. The results obtained from the analysis would then be used to evaluate current road countermeasures and provide necessary recommendations for countermeasures.

highest total of accidents, with around 180 each while sections KM 25 to 27 are among the lowest.

Figure 4. Accident frequency at FT 050 Figure 5 shows the total of accident frequency according to its seriousness and accident weighting point (AWP) at each section for years 2005 to 2007. KM 5 has the highest AWP with 90.0, followed by KM 10 (86.8) and KM 9 (80.6). The high AWPs at the locations are mainly due to the high number of fatal accidents occurred there. Locations with the lowest AWPs are KM 27 (5.6) and KM 25 (15.2). Generally, at a section where the occurrence of road accidents, especially fatal is high, the AWP is high as well. The calculation of AWP is based on the points set by the Highway Planning Unit, where accidents involving fatality carries a point of 6.0, serious injury (3.0), minor injury (0.8) and damage-only (0.2).

4. Results and observations

An estimated total cost due to road accidents along FT 050 from year 2005 to 2007 is about RM 129 million. Sections KM 5 and KM 10 have contributed most to this, with over RM 8 million each. All sections have a total of accident cost above RM 1 million each except KM 27 which is only less than RM 0.1 million. The accident cost is estimated based on the rates adapted from ADB-ASEAN Regional Road Safety Program: Malaysia Accident Costing Report AC 5 [10]. Accidents involving fatality is estimated to cost RM 1.2 million, serious injury (RM 120,000), minor injury (RM 12,000) and damage-only (RM 1,200). One of the main advantages of this system is that the authority can easily estimate the economic loss incurred due to accidents and thus justify the allocation of funds needed for countermeasures [7].

Figure 3. Accident by cost at FT 050 Figure 4 shows accident frequency (total of all accidents including fatal, serious injury, minor injury and damage-only) for each section of FT 050 for years 2005-2007. The total of road accidents along FT 050 in years 2005-2007 is 2,895. Based on the accident frequency ranking, sections KM 2 to 4 have the Figure 5. Accidents at FT 050, 2005-2007 Figure 6 shows ogive of the speed distribution at KM 5, KM 20 and KM 30. The 85th percentile speed is 70.9, 75.3 and 91.6 km/h respectively. The speed limit at KM 5 and KM 20 is 60 km/h while is 90 km/h at KM 30.

residents are made up of students of UTHM, villagers and local residents with lower income as compared to those living in Batu Pahat town centre. Thus it would be more affordable to use a Class I vehicle i.e. motorcycle and bicycle. On another hand, KM 5 contains the highest percentage of Class II vehicles with 58%, though it does not differ much from KM 20 (51%) and KM 30 (55%). Yet in actual number of vehicles, the figure differs greatly KM 5 (7,885), KM 20 (4,424) and KM 30 (2,849). This shows that the Class II vehicles are the preferred mode of transport for road users of FT 050 though in actual figure, the volume of the vehicles differs greatly. The composition of Class IV vehicles is in contrast to that of Class I vehicles, with KM 30 (16%), followed by KM 20 (10%) and the least being 8% at KM 5. Class IV vehicles are made up of heavy trucks and buses. As Ayer Hitam is the main gateway to Batu Pahat from the south (Johor Bahru and Singapore), heavy trucks that carry goods to be transported would enter Ayer Hitam toll and travel to Batu Pahat via KM 30.

Figure 6. Ogive curve for speed Figure 7 shows the total of average daily traffic volume at selected time for KM 5, KM 20 and KM 30. KM 30 has the highest traffic volume with 13,542 vehicles over the period. This is followed by KM 20 with 8,746 vehicles and KM 30 with 5,173 vehicles in that same period of time. This is due to KM 5 being located very near to Batu Pahat town centre, which is highly populated as compared to KM 20 at a suburban area and KM 30 at a rural area which is less populated. KM 30 is considered to be pass by point for road users heading towards Batu Pahat / Parit Raja from Kluang / Ayer Hitam. As trips generated on this route are lesser, thus the traffic volume at KM 30 is lower. Generally, vehicles of all classes are lowest at KM 30, followed by KM 20 and the highest at KM 5. This is in line with the population at these 3 areas.

Figure 8. Vehicle composition at various locations

5. Data analysis
Fig 9 shows the accident frequency and flow rate at selected sections along Jalan Batu Pahat- Kluang (FT 050). Generally it is observed that when the flow rate at a particular section is high, the accident frequency is high and when the flow rate is low, the accident frequency is low as well. Fig 10 shows the correlation between accident frequency and flow rate. The correlation produces an R2 value of 0.959, which means that a 95.9% of the variation in the accident frequency can be explained by the change in the flow rate. In other words, accident frequency at Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang has a

Figure 7. Total of average traffic volume at various locations KM 20 has the highest percentage of Class I vehicle users with an average of 27% of the total traffic volume at its location, as compared to 21% at KM 5 and almost doubles that of KM 30 with only 15% of its traffic volume. This could be due to the fact that KM 20 is located at Parit Raja where most

very strong positive relationship with the flow rate. From the graph, it can be said that with the increase of every 100 pc/hr/lane at Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050), it is expected that the accident frequency will increase by 9.4 cases. Thus at sections with higher traffic volume, the possibility of road accident increases. KM 5.0 has recorded one of the highest accident frequencies with 141 road accidents between 2005 and 2007. It has also recorded the highest flow rate of 1532 pc/hr/lane. KM 15.0 has the lowest accident frequency along Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT050) with one of the lowest flow rate recorded with 601 pc/hr/lane after KM 25.0 with 525 pc/hr/lane.

can be seen that as speed increases, the accident frequency reduces. It is commonly known that the opposite is true, where speed increases, road accident increases.

Figure 11. Correlation between accident frequency and speed In reality, speed does not directly relate to the road accident frequency. What actually happens is that when flow rate or traffic volume builds up along Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050), the speed vehicles reduces. This can be seen in the correlation between speed and flow rate in Figure 12. Thus the frequency of road accidents is a direct effect of the increase of flow rate or traffic volume as explained for Figure 10.

Figure 9. Accident frequency and flow rate various locations

6. Conclusion and Recommendations

From the research conducted it can be concluded that traffic volume or flow rate has a strong and positive influence on road accident frequencies. Free flow speed on the other hand may relate to accident indirectly as an effect of flow rate. Speed and rural roads depended mostly on road conditions and drivers behaviour [15][16]. These are also inter-related with speed and characteristics of speeders [17][18]. However, further investigations on the effectiveness of countermeasures along Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050) and other relevant parameters should be conducted in order to understand the road accident pattern clearer.

Figure 10. Correlation between accident frequency and flow rate Figure 11 shows the correlation between accident frequency and the 85th percentile speed at KM 5, KM 20 and KM 30 of Jalan Batu Pahat-Kluang (FT 050). It

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Figure 12. Correlation between speed and flow rate

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