STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

Executive Summary
Global Economy
In the United States (US), the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) released a report after a survey that the U.S service sector grew for the 22nd successive month in September, although with a decline in the pace of development. The Organization said the activities recorded in the service sector fell to 53.00% in September from 53.30% recorded in August. Figures recorded above 50.00% indicates a sign of growth in the sector. The report revealed a group within the business sector recorded an increase to 57.10% in September in contrast to 55.60% recorded in August. Figures recorded in the employment index showed a drop to 48.70% in September from 51.60% in August indicating a tightening in employment, following three consecutive months of increase. In the United Kingdom (UK) the Office for National Statistics, disclosed an increase in the level of output from the service sector. The service sector grew by 0.20% in the second quarter (Q2), in contrast to 0.50% recorded in the previous month. The Treasury pointed to these figures as a proof that the UK economy was still growing and said it would be maintaining its deficit reduction programme. The Bank of England said it would inject an additional 75 billion into the economy through quantitative easing, earlier the Bank injected 200 billion into the economy through the purchase of assets such as government bonds, in an effort to stimulate lending by commercial banks. In another development, activity in the UK construction sector slowed to near stagnation in September, indicated by a closely monitored survey. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.10% in September from 52.60% recorded in August, a fraction above 50.00% no change mark which separates expansion from contraction. In the Eurozone, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) advised European Union to inject 200 billion into its banks and cautioned of a freeze in lending and a subsequent recession if the unions leaders failed to reassure anxious investors. French policy makers have been nervous by anxiety that its top banks are too exposed to Greece, whose debt is projected to end in 2011 at 357 billion. In addition, the recent dilemma affecting the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia, have worsened the situation affecting the region. The European Commission confirmed in a recent report that the level of confidence in the European sector had taken a toll for the worse since the 27-nation bloc offered more than 80 banks a clean bill of health during the summer in tests that investors regarded were sub-standard. In another development in the Eurozone, manufacturing activities declined as new orders shrank at their fastest pace since mid-2009. Even though the regions leaders have managed to control the regions debt crisis which may lead to a financial catastrophe, as recent data indicated a worsening economic fortune across the union. A recent survey revealed a notable decline in Industrial production in Greece. Industrial output in the troubled nation fell by 11.70% on a Year on Year (Y-o-Y) basis in August, significantly faster than Julys 2.60% decline. On a Month on Month (M-o-M) basis, the level of production declined by 17.40% within the month, annulling the 13.50% growth observed in the previous month. In the first eight months of 2011, industrial output dropped by an average of 8.40% from the same period in 2010.

October 1014, 2011

Greenwich Research Team

Opeyemi Tella opeyemi.tella@greenwichtrustgroup.com Oladipupo Adekanmbi oladipupo.adekanmbi@greenwichtrustgroup.com Olukayode Aladejebi olukayode.aladejebi@greenwichtrustgroup.com Dennis Okolie dennis.okolie@greenwichtrustgroup.com Awobiyi Oluyinka awobiyi.oluyinka@greenwichtrustgroup.com

Greenwich Trust Limited Plot 1698A Oyin Jolayemi Street P.M.B. 80074 Victoria Island Lagos. Tel: 234-1-2715937 Fax: 234-1-2700613 E-mail: research@greenwichtrustgroup.com Website: www.greenwichtrustgroup.com

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

Executive Summary (Contd)
Recent construction activities in Germany rose in September, According to Markit Economics a global data agency. The firms index of German construction activity grew to 50.50%, when compared with 49.80% in August. An index above 50.00% indicates the number of construction companies whose businesses expanded was higher than those whose businesses contracted. In addition, the Economic ministry in Berlin revealed that the Industrial output for Germany dropped than forecasted in August . Production dipped by 1.10% when compared to a growth of 3.9% recorded in the previous month. A 2.00% decrease was anticipated, according to a survey carried out recently. Global rating agency (Fitch) recently cut Italys sovereign rating by a notch, compounding to the regions existing crisis and a risk of fiscal slippage. Fitchs rating for Italy dropped to the same rates with countries like Malta and Slovakia are rated. The agency based its downgrade on market confidence in Italy, which had been battered by the governments initial delay to respond to the rise in yields. Analyst believe the coalition of the government is feeble and divided and efforts to introduce reforms would be abortive. However, the agency believes the country is solvent, but urged Italy which is one of the slowest growing economy in the region, to implement a more radical approach to maintaining a sustainable economy. According to data released by the Federal Statistics Office the unemployment rate of Switzerland remained the same in the month of September. The nations jobless rate remained unchanged at 3% throughout the month, whilst unemployed figures dipped by 28,696 people from the previous level recorded in August. However, the countrys retail sales declined for the second successive month in August. Retail sales fell by 3.90% in August compared to a 2.70% decrease recorded in July, food, beverages and tobacco declined by 2.20 per cent, while nonfood items excluding fuel fell 6.70 per cent.
12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00%

October 10 14, 2011

Inflation Rates Across Countries

Inflation Rates

Price Movement of Crude Oil (Oct 4- 7, 2011)

104.00 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00 4-Oct-11 5-Oct-11 6-Oct-11
OPEC Basket

7-Oct-11

Major World Stock Market Indices (October 4 7, 2011)

Index In Australia the International Monetary Fund (IMF) disclosed it anticipates the nations economy will grow by 1.80% in 2011, accelerate by 3.30 per cent in 2012 and increase by 3.4 per Dow Jones (DJA) cent in 2013, backed by a fast-growing Asia. The IMF explained that a high demand by the Asian economies could lead to the S&P 500 construction of several large iron ore and Liquefied Natural Gas projects (LNG), which in turn would boost the level of private Nikkei 225 business investment in the future.

Current Value 3,814.42 1,150.26 8,605.62

1 Week Change 4.71% 4.64% 0.70%

YTD Change -5.42% -8.54% -15.87%

FTSE 100 5,303.40 4.49% -10.11% Asia, activities within the non-manufacturing sector in China GSE Composite witnessed an increase in September, reducing fears of a decline 1,014.15 -7.46% 1.44% in the countrys economic growth. The Purchasing Managers Index Q ua te rly Int e re s t Infla t io n Index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector gained 1.7points G D P Gro wt h R ate R ate C urre nt from the previous months figure of 59.30%. A reading above R a t e (Q 2 , (A ug/ ( A ug/ J o ble s s 50 indicates an expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates a 2 0 11) S e p) S e p) R ate contraction. In addition, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) C o unt ry reduced its economic outlook for China, as a result of the de9.1 0% 5.65% 6.20% 6.1 0% cline in demand from advanced countries along with the bat- C hina tered level of investors confidence. The Bank now anticipates a N ige ria 7.72% 1 3.33% 9.30% NA rise in the countrys Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 9.30 per cent in 2011 and 9.10 per cent in 2012. J a pa n
-2.1 0% NA 1 .00% 0.50% 0.60% 0.40% 0.1 5% 0.20% 4.30% 2.1 0% 9.1 0% 6.90% 1 0.00% 7.90%

The Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry recently revealed a 42.5 per cent decline in the level of exports from previous year to $24.31billion recorded in the second quarter (Q2), while the annual growth in imports came in at 41.82 per cent during the month of August. In addition, exports and imports rose by 54.21 per cent and 40.37 per cent respectively, within the month of April to August. The ministry also stated an increase in deficit, from $10.09billion recorded last year to $14.04billion in the second quarter (Q2).

S inga po re Unite d S ta t e s G e rm a ny E uro A re a B rita in

0.38% 0.1 5% 1 .56% 1 .56% 1 .00%

5.70% 3.80% 2.60% 3.00% 4.50%

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

Executive Summary (Contd)
On the local scene, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released a statement that it will no longer allow oil companies buy US dollars at the bi-weekly auctions, to fund importation of products. The CBN criticized oil companies for the recent upward trend in the demand pressure of the U.S. dollar, leading to a depreciation in value of the local currency. In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) anticipated a growth 0f 8.84 per cent in the non-oil sector for 2011 compared to 8.49 recorded in 2010. On accumulation, the economy when measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 7.98 per cent in the current year, as against 7.85 per cent recorded in the previous year. The 2012 fiscal year may usher in the end of fuel subsidy, the Federal government recently re-evaluated its plans to eliminate fuel subsidy beginning from January 2012. Research analyst have estimated that the removal of the subsidy is expected to save the government about N1.20 trillion. A section of the fund would be utilized for the provision of safety nets for low income earners. Liquidity pressure tightened in the financial system in the week under review, as the Nigeria Interbank Offer Rates (NIBOR) increased across all tenors. This was as a result of the outflow of funds for FX funding at the CBN Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS), amidst Open Market Operations (OMO) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). During the week under review, average bond yields rose, just as their prices decreased. This was as a result of reduced demand amidst the liquidity pressure at the interbank market. On a Week-on-Week basis, the Naira depreciated against the dollar by 0.52 per cent at the official window and 2.91 per cent at the inter-bank forex to close at N155.40/$ and $164.25/$, respectively. In the same vein, it depreciated by 3.09 per cent at the parallel window and 3.11 per cent at the Bureau de Change to close at N166.00/$ and N167.00/$, respectively. The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) closed the last trading day of the week on a negative note. The All-Share Index and Market Capitalization plunged by 138 basis points (1.38 per cent) each to close at 20,225.02 and N6.45 trillion, respectively, when compared to their previous trading figures. Consequently, the Year-to-Date (YTD) change in the ASI fell to 18.35 per cent compared to 17.75 per cent recorded in the preceding week.

October 10 14, 2011

Price Movement of Crude Oil (Oct 4- 7, 2011)

104.00 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00 4-Oct-11 5-Oct-11 6-Oct-11
OPEC Basket

7-Oct-11

Movement of All Share Index Against Volume Traded (Oct 4 - 7, 2011)

300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000
4-Oct-11
V OLUME

20,800.00 20,700.00 20,600.00 20,500.00 20,400.00 20,300.00 20,200.00 20,100.00 20,000.00 19,900.00
6-Oct-11
INDEX

Nigerian FGN Bond Yield Curve 15.00% 13.00% 11.00% 9.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00%
3 5 7 10 20

OUTLOOK
We are of the view that equity investors may remain wary on the floor of the NSE, on the back of the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN to increase the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as investorsappetite may drift towards the Money and Fixed Income Markets, despite the survival of the rescued banks which drove market activities during the first two trading days of the week under review.

Ave ra ge Weighte d (07/10/11)

Aver age Weighted (30/09/11)

Ec o n o m i c I n d i c a t o r s YoY Inf lat ion ( Aug' 11) MPR ( Sep '11) Ext ernal Reserves (Oct ober 6'11) GDP Gr owt h Rat e YoY ( Q2, 2011)

Cur r e nt 9.30% 9.25%

P r e v ious 9.40% 8.75%

31.36

32.53

7.72%

7.43%

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

October 10 14, 2011

FORECAST PERFORMANCE FOR LAST WEEK

Security

Base Price

Forecast

Weeks High

Forecast as a Percentage of Actual

Last Weeks Rating

ZENITHBANK GUARANTY FIRSTBANK GTASSURE ASHAKACEM ACCESS SKYEBANK NAHCO FCMB DIAMONDBNK DANGSUGAR DANGFLOUR OANDO FIDELITYBK

12.41 12.85 9.77 1.01 16.8 5.62 5.10 5.88 4.25 3.50 7.00 6.81 22.99 2.01

12.46 12.89 9.81 1.012 16.86 5.64 5.12 5.90 4.26 3.51 7.03 6.84 23.07 2.02

12.85 12.90 9.80 1.17 17.85 5.70 5.19 6.13 4.60 3.67 7.56 7.19 26.57 2.05

103.13% 100.08% 99.90% 115.61% 105.87% 101.06% 101.37% 103.90% 107.98% 104.56% 107.54% 105.12% 115.17% 101.49%

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD

Percentage Forecast Achieved

FIDELITYBK OANDO DANGFLOUR DANGSUGAR DIAMONDBNK FCMB NAHCO SKYEBANK ACCESS ASHAKACEM GTASSURE FIRSTBANK GUARANTY ZENITHBANK 86.00% 93.00% 100.00% 107.00%

Percentage Forecast Achieved

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

SUMMARY

October 10 14, 2011

Security

Current Price (N)

OneYear Price Target 5-10 Trading Days Range (N) Forecast (N)

Rationale

Buy List
ZENITHBANK GTASSURE CUSTODYINS GUARANTY FIRSTBANK ASHAKACEM NAHCO FCMB ACCESS DANGSUGAR DIAMONDBNK OANDO 12.10 1.17 2.31 12.30 9.07 16.17 6.13 4.16 5.23 7.24 3.39 25.50 14.30 - 19.86 1.52 - 1.66 3.14 - 4.28 16.67 - 17.90 16.01 - 18.69 19.17 - 24.03 7.40 - 11.42 8.39 - 10.88 8.16 - 9.53 12.43 - 17.48 5.44 - 8.53 35.10 - 60.30 12.14 1.17 2.32 12.34 9.10 16.23 6.15 4.17 5.25 7.27 3.40 25.59 Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech

Hold List
FIDELITYBK 2.01 2.34 - 3.90 2.02 Fund-Tech

Sell List
Security OASISINS CAPHOTEL Current Price (N) 0.50 3.05 Fair Price (N) 0.50 3.13 Tech Tech

Recommendation using fundamental is based on analysis of the companys financial statements. Recommendation using technical is based on analyzing the stock price and volume trends. CAPM Capital Asset Pricing Model. See the Appendix for definitions of the technical tools used in this report. YTD Year-to-date.

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

ZENITH BANK PLC
The banks business location strategy and infrastructure deployment show its commitment to customer enthusiasm at all times, in all business offices across Nigeria. The uniqueness of the Banks brand of financial services has actually made it one of the top choices in banking, to most multinational companies in Nigeria, and this accounted for its wide customer base. As part of its vision to become a global leader in the industry, the Bank carries out its operations through a number of subsidiaries, namely; Zenith General Insurance Company Limited, Zenith Securities Limited, Zenith Registrars Limited, Zenith Bank Ghana Limited, Zenith Pension Limited, Zenith Bank (UK) Limited, Zenith Trust Limited and Zenith Medicare Limited to offer a wide range of financial services. Zenith Banks growth and performance has continued to earn excellent ratings from both local and international rating agencies. The Bank was rated Aaa in Nigeria consecutively for six (6) years by Agusto & Co. Ltd. The bank has consistently recorded impressive performance on several parameters and this demonstrates the rising customer patronage and an excellent approval and endorsement all over the world. The banks Turnover declined by 30.58 per cent from N277 billion recorded in 2009 to N192 billion in 2010. However, Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 81.59 per cent from N20.60 billion in 2009 to N37.41 billion in 2010. The bank declared a dividend per share of N0.85k. The banks half year result for 2011 saw PAT stand at N30.67 billion, from N21.31 billion recorded in the same period in 2010. Our technical analysis seems to indicate that the stock is attractive for long term investors, as the 200-day MA is below the 100-day MA. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner also show that the stock is currently below the signal line, and it seems that the price may witness an upward movement in the next couple of trading sessions. The one-year Standard Deviation decreased to 2.16% from 2.21% recorded last week. The beta of the stock price is 1.47, which is higher than the banking sectors beta of 1.06. The alpha of the stock which explains the return in excess of the compensation for the risk borne is 0.04%, compared to the sectoral average of 0.02%. The expected one year return of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 16.69%.
150.00

October 10 14, 2011

NSE All-Share Index Vs ZENITHBANK-Jan '10 -Date

100.00 R = 0.0748 50.00

0.00 4-Jan-10
NSE Rebased

4-Jul-10

4-Jan-11
Zenithbank Rebased

4-Jul-11
Poly. (Zenithbank Rebased)

ZE N I T H B A N K P LC Cur r ent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of it Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End 12.10 16.70 11.75 1.49 8.12 31,396,493,786 7.02% 20,603,000 December

ZEN IT H B AN K P LC 2010 ('0 00) Turnover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Margin Shareholders' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA 192,488,000 37,414,000 19.44% 363,561,000 1,895,027 10.67% 4.50% 2009 ('000) 277,300,000 20,603,000 7.43% 337,793,000 1,659,703,000 12.20% 2.48% CH. -30.58% 81.59% 161.61% 7.63% -99.89%

ZENITH BANK PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 11.76 22.90 15.09 5.75 14.30

A weighted average of all the valuation metrics produced a reviewed final fair price of N14.30. This indicates that the stock is 18.18% undervalued at the current market price of N12.10. We therefore maintain our BUY recommendation on Zenith Bank. In the medium to long term, we expect the share price to trend towards our target price range of N14.30 N19.86.

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

GTBANK PLC
Guaranty Trust Bank Plc has built up an impressive corporate image for itself as a strong growth, customer friendly, dependable and high performance institution. The Bank is associated with high levels of professionalism and has a reputation for high quality service delivery. Growing at a strong pace over the years, it has established itself among the most efficient and profitable banks in the industry. In 2006/2007 financial year, the Bank received a credit line of $40million from African Development Bank, taking total investments by international finance institutions in the Bank to over $400million. Also in the same period, the Bank signed an asset management joint venture agreement with Morgan Stanley Investment Management to meet part of the requirements for managing portions of Nigerias external reserves. The Bank floated a $350million Eurobond issue which recorded a substantial oversubscription. The issue has been listed on the London Stock Exchange. Similarly, the Bank raised $750m to fund its growth programmes, $500m from international investors by selling Global Depositary Receipts (GDR) and the rest from Nigerians. The GDR, which was fully subscribed has also been listed on the London Stock Exchange. The Bank recently released full year result indicated that its Turnover declined by 5.32 per cent from N162.55 billion in 2009 to N153.91 billion in 2010. However, Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 60.07 per cent from N23.69 billion in 2009 to N37.92 billion in 2010. The banks 2011 half year result saw PAT grow to N25.25 billion, from N18.22 billion recorded in the corresponding period in 2010. Our technical analysis seems to indicate that the stock is attractive for long term investors, as the 200-day MA is below the 100-day MA. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner also show that the stock is currently below the signal line, and it seems that the price may witness an upward movement in the next couple of trading sessions. The one-year Standard Deviation marginally fell to 2.51% from 2.52% recorded last week. The beta of the stock price is 1.05, which is higher than the banking sectors beta of 1.06. The alpha of the stock is 0.03%, which is higher than the sectors 0.02%, explaining the return in excess of the compensation for the extra risk. The expected one year return of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 15.68%.
200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 4-Jan-10

October 10 14, 2011

NSE All-Share Index Vs GUARANTY- Jan '10 - Date

R = 0.2494

4-Jul-10
NSE Rebased Guaranty Rebased

4-Jan-11

4-Jul-11
Poly. (Guaranty Rebased)

G U A R A N T Y T R U ST B A N K P LC Cur r ent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of i t Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End 12.30 20.50 11.64 1.54 7.99 29,431,179,226 8.13% 23,686,000 December

GUARANT Y TRUST BANK PLC Dec. 2010 ('0 00) Turnover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Margin Shareholders' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA 153,908,000 37,916,000 24.64% 210,826,000 1,152,002,000 18.81% 3.51% Dec. 2009 ('000) 162,550,418 23,686,843 14.57% 192,245,928 1,006,503,718 13.32% 2.72% CH. -5.32% 60.07% 69.06% 9.66% 14.46%

GUARANTY TRUST BANK PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Income C apitalization Model Earnings Model Discounted Cashflow (DC F) Dividend Model Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 20 20 30 20 100 26.67 18.55 14.66 22.05 3.72 16.67

A weighted average of our valuation metrics gives a fair value of N16.67. Thus, the stock is trading at a discount of 35.53% at the current price of N12.30 We maintain our BUY recommendation on Guaranty Trust Bank Plc. In the medium term, we expect the share price to trend towards a target price range of N16.67 N17.90.

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

FIRST BANK OF NIGERIA PLC
First Bank of Nigeria Plc (FBN) offers commercial banking services and a variety of other financial services through its subsidiaries, which include FBN Capital Limited, FBN Mortgages Limited, First Funds Limited, First Trustees Limited, First Pension Custodian Limited, First Registrars Nigeria Limited, FBN Insurance Brokers Limited and FBN Bank (UK) Limited. It currently operates through 536 branches in Nigeria. The branch network which cuts across all parts of Nigeria, gives the bank access to large market share, and cheap funds. The Bank has been in existence for about 115 years and over the years, it has maintained a strong brand name, solid capital base and high market share. Its experienced, dynamic and competent management team, as well as, its consistent dividend and bonus policy has made it possible for the bank to distinguish itself as the leading financial institution and a major contributor to the economic advancement and development in Nigeria. First Bank has international presence through its subsidiary FBN Bank (UK) in London and Paris. It also has offices in Johannesburg and Beijing. The Bank is quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange and currently has an unlisted Global Depository Receipt (GDR) Programme. In the banks 2010 Full Year Report, Turnover rose by 5.64 per cent from N218.29 billion in 2009 to N230.61 billion in 2010. The Profit After Tax (PAT) increased to N33.41 billion at the end of 2010, as against N12.57 billion recorded in 2009. The banks 2011 half year result saw PAT grow to N31.26 billion, from N25.35 billion recorded in the same period in 2010. Our technical analysis shows that the stock price is attractive for long term investment, as the 100-day MA is slightly above the 200-day MA. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner also show that the stock price is currently below the signal line and may experience an upward rally in the next couple of trading days. The trailing Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio of the company stood at 7.50x, compared to its sectoral P/E Ratio of 11.66x. The one-year Standard Deviation decreased to 2.41% from 2.45% recorded last week. The beta of the stock price is 1.22, which is higher than the banking sectors beta of 1.06. The expected one year return of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 16.09%.
150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 4-Jan-10

October 10 14, 2011

NSE All-Share Index Vs FIRSTBANK- Jan '10 - Date

R = 0.2731

4-Jul-10

4-Jan-11

4-Jul-11

NSE Rebased

Firstbank Rebased

Poly. (Firstbank Rebased)

FI R ST B A N K OF N I GE R I A P LC Cur r ent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of it Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End
FI RST BANK OF NIGE RI A P LC 2010 ('000) Turnover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Margin Shareholders' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA 230,606,000 33,411,000 14.49% 340,626,000 2,305,258,000 9.86% 1.55% 2009 ('000) 218,287,000 12,569,000 5.76% 337,405,000 2,009,914,000 5.97% 0.86% CH. 5.64% 165.82% 151.62% 0.95% 14.69%

9.07 16.12 8.50 1.21 7.50 32,632,084,358 6.62% 33,411,000 December

FIRST BANK OF NIGERIA PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 9.81 31.46 13.80 4.83 16.01

The weighted average final fair price of First bank is N16.01 This indicates that First Bank is undervalued by 76.52%. We therefore maintain our BUY recommendation on First Bank Plc. In the medium to long term, we expect the share price to trend towards our target price range of N16.01 N18.69.

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

ASHAKA CEMENT PLC
Ashaka Cement Plc (Ashakacem) became a subsidiary of Lafarge Group, the world leader in building materials in July 2001 after the acquisition of Blue Circle Industries Plc. The companys principal activities are the manufacturing and marketing of cement products. The company has maintained a reputation of consistent dividend and bonus history. Consequently, investors expectation of bounty returns at the end of their financial year will trigger the demand for the stock. The company believes that ongoing advances in building materials must integrate respect for people, their different needs and their environment. This strong conviction is reflected in a strategy that combines industrial knowhow with performance, value creation, respect for employees & local cultures, environmental protection and conservation of natural resources & energy. The companys full year result ended December 31, 2010, shows that Turnover increased by 11.40 per cent from N17.19 billion in 2009 to N19.15 billion in 2010. Profit After Tax (PAT) surged by 218.35 per cent from N943.62 million to N3.00 billion when compared to the same period in the preceding year. Net Profit Margin (NPM) also increased from 5.49 per cent in the corresponding period of 2009 to 15.68 per cent in the 2010, indicating an increase of 185.61 per cent. The increase in earnings has been attributed to the rise in cement prices during the financial year as a result of increased public projects in terms of infrastructural development. It was also noted that the impact of the global financial crisis, which crippled the economy in 2008 is beginning to ease. Meanwhile, the strength of the Company resides in its ownership of a completed power project for production, the advantage it derives from the technical alliance with other leading companies in the sector, its domineering status in some regions of the country, and its capability to expand and take advantage of emerging opportunities. The beta of the stock is 0.97, while the one-year Standard Deviation of the stock marginally fell to 2.63% from 2.64% recorded last week. The long term return prospect of the stock estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 15.49%.
300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 4-Jan-10

October 10 14, 2011

NSE All-Share Index Vs ASHAKACEM- Jan '10 - Date

4-Jul-10
N SE Rebased Poly. (Ashakacem Rebased)

4-Jan-11
Ashakacem Rebased

R = 0.662 4-Jul-11
Poly. (Ashakacem Rebased)

A SH AK A C E M E N T P LC Cur r ent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of it Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End 16.17 30.00 16.00 1.35 11.98 2,239,453,125 1.86% 3,004,000 December

A SHA KA CE ME NT PLC 2010 ('0 00) Turnover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Margin Shareholders' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA 19,153,000 3,004,000 15.68% 16,146,000 28,123,249 20.51% 11.18% 2009 ('000) 17,193,000 943,618 5.49% 13,141,000 25,618,025 14.36% 7.37% CH. 11.40% 218.35% 185.77% 22.87% 9.78%

ASHAKA CEMENT PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 20 30 40 100 10.32 14.06 33.80 12.95 19.17

A weighted average of all the valuation metrics produced a final fair price of N19.17. This indicates that the stock is currently trading at a discount of 18.55% at the current market price of N16.17. We therefore maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock. In the medium term, the market price is likely to oscillate around our target price range of N19.17 N24.03.

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

ACCESS BANK PLC
Access Bank operates through a network of 130 branches located in all major commercial centers and cities across Nigeria, and in eight other African countries, as it is geared towards developing a world class retail banking franchise in Nigeria. The Bank has undergone a transformation process which has positively impacted its every area of business and propelled it into one of Nigeria's leading banks, with Shareholders Funds in excess of N185billion, Assets and Contingents in excess of N850 billion, and a deposit base in excess of N450 billion. The Bank is well positioned in a high growth market, with consistent growth in all key performance indicators over the past 7 years. It acquired Capital Bank and Marina Bank during the 2005 Banking Reform. In 2011 and as part of the banking sector recapitalization process, shareholders of Access Bank and Intercontinental Bank unanimously granted the necessary approvals for the proposed business combination of both banks. The emerging entity retain Access Banks name. The Banks profitability index measured by Return on Asset (ROA) increased to 1.50 per cent in 2010 from a decline of 0.82 per cent in 2009, and the Return on Equity (ROE) increased to 6.54 per cent in 2010, from a decline of 4.26% in 2009. The Banks smoothed annualized return using the 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) stood at 16.14% at the end of 2010. In the banks 2010 full year report, the banks Turnover increased by 7.25 per cent from N84.98 billion in 2009 to N91.14 billion in 2010. The Profit After Tax (PAT) also surged by 368 per cent from a loss of N4.19 billion recorded in 2009 due to provision for bad loans in 2009 to a profit of N11.24 billion in 2010. Total assets increased by 16 per cent from N694 billion in 2009 to N805 billion in 2010. The bank declared a dividend per share of N0.30k in the year ended December 2010, recording a dividend yield of 4.21%. The banks result for the first quarter of 2011 saw PAT stand at N4.17 billion, from N3.99 billion recorded in the same period of 2010. The return prospect of the stock estimated with the oneyear Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 15.23%. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner shows that the stock price is currently trading below the signal line, thus a price rally may soon be witnessed. Also, the 100-day MA is currently below the 200-day MA. The one year standard deviation of the stock fell to 2.41% from 2.46% recorded last week. The beta of the stock price is 0.86, which is lower than the banking sectors beta of 1.06. However, the alpha of the stock is 0.08%, which is also higher than the sectors 0.02% alpha, making the stock attractive for investors.
150.00 100.00

October 10 14, 2011

NSE All-Share Index Vs ACCESS- Jan '10 - Date

50.00 R = 0.4276 0.00 4-Jan-10

Acc ess Rebased

4-Jul-10

4-Jan-11
NSE Rebased

4-Jul-11
Poly. (Ac cess Rebased)

A C C E SS B A N K P LC Cur rent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of i t Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End 5.23 11.10 4.90 0.70 7.47 17,888,251,479 5.74% December

AC C ESS B AN K P LC 2010 FY Turnover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Margin Shareholders' Equity Total Assets ROSH ROA 91,142,064 11,244,563 12.34% 175,370,457 804,823,772 6.54% 1.50% 2009 (9 M ON T H S) 84,980,554 (4,194,582) -4.94% 168,346,048 693,783,938 -4.26% -0.82% CH. 7.25% 368.07% 349.95% 4.17% 16.00%

ACCESS BANK PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 8.69 9.29 10.14 4.89 8.16

The weighted average valuation of the stock is N8.16 indicating that the stock is trading at a discount of 56.02% at the current market price of N5.23. We therefore maintain our LONG TERM BUY rating on the stock. We expect the share price to trend towards our target price range of N8.16 N9.53.

10

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

October 10 14, 2011

CUSTODIAN & ALLIED INSURANCE PLC

Custodian & Allied Insurance Plc (CAI) is a wholly owned Nigerian Company, which arose from the combination of Custodian and Allied Insurance Company Limited and Signal Insurance Company Limited in a bid to meet the stipulated capitalization requirements and provide an inorganic growth opportunity to achieve their strategic objective of being one of the top three insurance companies in the industry. Custody Insurance's sole purpose is to develop, package and deliver innovative insurance products that best satisfy customer needs, whilst operating a highly profitable, efficient, resourceful and ethical organization that will survive into the future and be a valuable asset to its shareholders. The uniqueness of the companys service delivery is in their ability to provide fast, efficient and highly professional service to the market in which it operates. This it is able to achieve through the automation of its various lines of operation, thereby reducing processing time and ultimately acquiring the much desired competitive edge. In addition, their products and operations are essentially market-driven with emphasis on providing a wide menu of option on policies, having paid due regard to production processes employed in various industries. The company has emerged as one of the fastest growing insurance companies in the Nigeria. Post consolidation, the new entity has been able to efficiently leverage on the unique features of the two old institutions, yielding an attractive industry positioning and emergence as a genuine competitor for industry leadership. With an EPS of 0.38, the trailing P/E Ratio of the company stood at 6.08x. The company gave an interim dividend of N0.60 and a final dividend of N0.17, resulting in a dividend yield of 9.96%. The companys result for the second quarter of 2011 saw Profit After Tax (PAT) stand at N1.29 billion, from N1.21 billion recorded in the corresponding period in 2010. In 2010, the Company carried out a Share Buy Back and delisted a total number of 37,924,787 ordinary shares from its listed shares. Our technical analysis seems to indicate that the 100day MA is trending above the 200-day MA. This suggests the stock is attractive for long term investors. The one year return prospect of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 15.53%.
150.00

NSE All-Share Index Vs CUSTODYINS- Jan '10 - Date

100.00

50.00 R = 0.2288 0.00 4-Jan-10

NSE Rebased

4-Jul-10

4-Jan-11
Custodyins Rebas ed

4-Jul-11
Poly. (Custodyins Rebased)

C U ST O D I A N A N D A L LI E D I N SU R A N C E P L C

Cur r ent Pr i ce Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of i t Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End

2.31 3.51 2.30 0.38 6.08 5,100,846,808 9.96% 1,886,903 December

CUST ODI AN AND ALLI E D I NSURANCE P LC 2010 ('000) Turnover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Margin Shareholders' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA 13,724,000 2,041,000 14.87% 15,772,000 15,771,850 13.64% 13.64% 2009 ('000) 5,277,000 1,886,000 35.74% 14,159,000 14,157,753 26.64% 26.64% CH. 160.07% 8.22% -58.39% 11.39% 11.40%

CUSTODIAN AND ALLIED INSURANCE PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 20 40 100 5.19 7.41 4.23 1.73 4.28

The stock is currently trading at a discount of 66.53% at the current market price of N2.31 when compared to the estimated fair price of N4.28. The average weighted value of all our valuation models was skewed towards the Forward Earnings Metric. We therefore maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock. In the medium term, the market price is likely to oscillate around our target price range of N3.14 N4.28.

11

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

October 10 14, 2011

NAHCO PLC
NAHCO was incorporated on December 6, 1979 as a private limited company and converted to a public limited company on August 4, 2005. The company operates in the Airline Services Sector, and is ranked as a top industry player in the sector. Despite the challenges faced in the business environment during the year under review, the companys turnover increased from N6.01 ibillion in the previous year to N6.35 billion in 2010. However, Profit After Tax decreased by 5.61%, when compared to the same period in 2009, declinig from N1.25 billion to N1.18 billion. Net Profit Margin also declined from 20.56% in 2009 to 18.55% in 2010. The companys result for the first quarter (Q1) of 2011 saw Turnover rise by 5.14 per cent from N1.52 billion recorded in Q1 2010 to N1.60 billion in Q1 2011. However, PAT dipped by 51.37 per cent from N396.00 million recorded in Q1 2010 to N192.56 million in Q1 2011. The companys half year result for 2011 saw Turnover increase by 12.18 per cent from N3.08 billion recorded in Q2 2010 to N3.45 billion in Q2 2011. However, Profit After Tax dropped by 39.90 per cent from N677.17 million in 2010 to N484.04 million in 2011. With an EPS of N0.80, the trailing P/E Ratio of the company stood at 7.66X. The P/E Ratio for the sector stood at 5.74x. The company proposed a final dividend of N0.40k and its dividend yield stood at 6.53%. The dividend yield for the sector stood at 5.83%. In order to remain solidly afloat in the midst of the emerging competitions from new entrants into the aviation ground handling sector in June 2011, the company announced its plans to divest into power sector, which is expected to be one of the companys new strategies to boost its revenue base. The Standard Deviation of the stock price increased to 2.74% from 2.71% recorded last week. This indicates that the stock volatility increased during the week. The beta of the stock price is 1.33, which is higher than the Aviation sectors beta of 0.74. The alpha of the stock is 0.13%, which is higher than the sectors 0.05%, explaining the return in excess of the compensation for the risk borne. The long term return prospect of the stock estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 16.35%, signifying that the stock may be attractive for long term investment.
250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 4-Jan-10

NSE All-Share Index Vs NAHCO- Jan '10 - Date

R = 0.4822 4-Jul-10
NSE Rebased N AH CO Rebased

4-Jan-11

4-Jul-11
Poly. (NAH CO Rebased)

NAH CO P LC Cur rent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of i t Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End 6.13 11.75 5.40 0.80 7.66 1,230,468,750 6.53% 1,247,334 December

NAHCO P LC 2010 ('0 00) Turnover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Margin Shareholders' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA 6,345,000 1,177,000 18.55% 4,992,000 7,287,800 24.35% 16.76% 2009 ('000) 6,066,000 1,247,000 20.56% 4,676,000 6,761,543 45.09% 28.37% CH. 4.60% -5.61% -9.76% 6.76% 7.78%

NAHCO PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 20 30 40 100 4.63 4.26 10.46 7.37 7.40

A weighted average of the valuation models gave a final fair price of N7.40. This seems to indicate that NAHCO Plc is undervalued by 20.72% at the current market price of N5.88. We therefore maintain our LONG TERM BUY recommendation on the stock. We also expect the share price to trend towards our target price range of N7.40 N11.42 in the medium term.

12

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

DIAMOND BANK PLC
Diamond Bank Plc began as a private limited liability, but became a public quoted company following a highly successful Private Placement share offer in 2005. The Banks shares were consequently admitted to the daily official list of The Nigerian Stock Exchange. During the recapitalization exercise, the bank acquired Lion Bank and African International Bank (AIB). The Bank in 2008 became the first bank in Africa to be listed on the Professional Securities Market of the London Stock Exchange, with the admission of its Global Depositary Receipts (GDR) on the Exchange. The Bank has developed relationships with various multinationals and international financial organizations, such as the U.S. Eximbank, The Netherlands FMO and the World Banks International Finance Corporation (IFC). The Bank currently partners Citibank, HSBC Bank, ANZ Banking Group, ING BHF Bank AG, Standard Chartered Bank, Belgolaise Bank S.A, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, and Nordea Bank Plc in order to provide a bouquet of world class banking services to its clients. Diamond Bank Plc is a pioneer in the use of cutting edge information technology. The bank has a strong brand name and reputation, strategic branch network and excellent IT infrastructure, which has helped the bank increase its market share in the Industry. The banks full year (FY) result for 2010 shows a 34.38 per cent increase in Turnover from N67 billion in 2009 to N91 billion in 2010. The Profit after tax (PAT) increased by 615.24 per cent from a loss of -N8.17 billion in 2009 to N1.33 billion in 2010. The bank declared a dividend per share of N0.15k. The banks 2011 half year result saw PAT decline to N1.20 billion, from N4.60 billion recorded in the same period in 2010. The 100-day MA is crossing over the 200-day MA, suggesting long term investment opportunities in the stock. The stock price is more volatile than the market, given a beta of 1.37. The one-year Standard Deviation fell to 2.92% from 2.96% recorded as last week. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner shows that the stock price is below the signal line, and it seems that the price may reverse upwards in the short term. Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the one-year return prospect of the stock is estimated at 16.45%.
150.00

October 10 14, 2011

NSE All-Share Index Vs DIAMONDBNK- Jan '10 - Date

100.00

50.00

0.00 4-Jan-10
N SE Rebased

4-Jul-10
Diamondbnk Rebased

4-Jan-11

4-Jul-11 R = 0.594
Poly. (Diamondbnk Rebased)

D I A M ON D B A N K P LC Cur r ent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of it Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End 3.39 9.27 3.39 0.06 56.50 14,475,243,105 4.42% December

D IA M ON D B AN K P LC Dec 2010 ( '000) Tur nover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Mar gin Shar eholder s' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA 91,022,288 1,328,655 1.46% 107,084,863 594,795,137 1.25% 0.21% Dec 2009 ( '000) 67,735,695 (8,174,413) -12.07% 106,093,071 650,395,601 -15.41% -2.51% CH. 34.38% 615.24% 826.75% 0.93% -8.55%

DIAMOND BANK PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 4.34 3.21 6.85 6.63 5.44

The Dividend and Book Value Models seem to indicate that the stock is underpriced. The fair value from the weighted average of the valuation models is N5.44 per share. We therefore maintain our LONG TERM BUY rating on Diamond Bank Plc. In the medium to long term, we expect the share price to trend towards our target price range of N5.44 N8.53.

13

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

October 10 14, 2011

DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC

Dangote Sugar Refinery (DSR) operates in two key business areas which include: Refining Process and Marketing & Distribution. A total of 10 billion shares of N0.50 per share were listed on the 8th of March 2007. The company whose offer was 139.5% over subscribed, returned over N20 billion, with 10% per annum interest to investors whose application were invalid. The company intends to diversify into the upstream segment of the sugar business by acquiring and developing Savannah Sugar Company Limited (SSCL), a subsidiary of Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), to create synergies and increase overall capacity. SSCL currently produces white sugar from own grown sugarcane. On successful combination, the potential synergies between DSR and its intended merger partner, SSCL, will see it become a formidable institution within the Sugar industry in Nigeria and beyond. The company expanded its production capacity by 75% in the first quarter of 2008, through the production of 2.55 million metric tones per annum from 1.44 million metric tones.
Turnover
Cur r ent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield
0.00 4-Jan-10 50.00 100.00 150.00

NSE All-Share Index Vs DANGSUGAR - Jan '10 - Date

R = 0.7726

NSE Rebas ed

Dangsugar Rebased

Poly. (Dangs ugar Rebas ed)

D A N GOT E SUGA R R E FI N E R Y P LC 7.24 16.20 6.99 0.71 10.20 12,000,000,000 8.29% 11,282,000 December

Pr of it Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End

DANGOTE SUGAR RE FI NERY P LC 2010 ('0 00) 89,980,000 11,282,000 12.54% 40,895,000 62,291,340 27.35% 16.13% 2009 ('000) 82,395,000 13,185,000 16.00% 41,612,000 77,562,125 39.03% 20.65% CH. 9.21% -14.43% -21.65% -1.72% -19.69%

DSR has relied mainly on retained earnings to support its growth in the past, and this strategy accounted for the non-payment of dividend for some years. This has helped the company to maintain consistent growth. Meanwhile, the Board of Directors of the company that earlier promised quarterly dividend in 2009, resolved to change the quarterly dividend policy of the company as a result of difficulty in the payment process, and failure of the policy to impact noticeably on the market valuation of the shares of the company. With an EPS of 0.71, the trailing P/E Ratio of the company stood at 10.20x, lower than the sectors 17.18x. The company proposed a dividend per share of N0.60, resulting in a dividend yield of 8.29%, compared to the sectoral average dividend yield of 2.47%. Our technical analysis shows that the stock price is attractive for long term investment, as the 100-day MA is slightly above the 200-day MA. The one year Return prospect of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 16.23%. The estimated oneyear Standard Deviation of the stock price decreased to 2.56% from 2.60% recorded last week.

Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Margin Shareholders' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA

DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 20 30 40 100 22.36 6.12 15.97 10.44 12.43

The fundamental value of DSR is tilted towards the Earnings Metric, as the weighted average of all our valuation metrics produced a final fair price of N12.43. This indicates that the stock is trading at a discount of 71.69%. Therefore, we maintain our recommendation on the stock as LONG TERM BUY. We also expect the share price to trend towards our target price range of N12.43 N17.48 in the medium to long term.

14

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

OANDO PLC
Oando Plc (formerly Unipetrol Nigeria Plc) is the second largest oil marketing company by revenue in Nigeria. The Company is an integrated energy solutions provider as its operations scale across gas, international supply, trading and energy services to its petroleum marketing business. The Company is currently incubating exploration, production and power initiatives. The company has an upgraded terminal operations, massive modernization and large number of trucking fleet, significant pump deployment and forecourt improvement, across the country. Oando is the first Nigerian company to accomplish a cross-border listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa. Oandos drive into the refinery business provides an advantage for further improving and sustaining earnings growth over the medium-term. The company recently declared its commitment to the completion of the 128km South East natural gas pipeline project, which is set for first gas in August 2011. The Company commenced the execution of its long-term strategy with a Rights Issue of 301,694,876 Ordinary Shares of N0.50k each at N70 per share to rank pari passu with the existing share capital of the company. The Companys audited result for 2010 showed an increment in Profit After Tax (PAT) by 42.37 per cent to N14.37 billion, when compared to N10.10 billion recorded in the corresponding period in 2009. Turnover for the year also grew by 12.49 per cent from N336.86 billion in 2009 to N378.93 billion in 2010. The Board of Directors of the company proposed a dividend of N3.00k and a bonus of one ordinary share for every four held as at 29th of April 2011. The companys 2011 half year result saw PAT grow to N6.68 billion, from N5.33 billion recorded in the corresponding period in 2010. The technical analysis of Oando indicates that the stock has become more attractive for long term investors, as the 100-day MA is currently trading above the 200-day MA. The estimated one-year Standard Deviation of the stock rose to 2.62% from 2.56% recorded in the previous week. With an EPS of 6.91, the trailing P/E Ratio of the company stood at 3.69x, compared to its sectoral EPS and P/E Ratio of 3.25 and 10.56x, respectively. The stock has a relatively high long term return prospect, given the one year expected return of 15.02% estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).
200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 4-Jan-10

October 10 14, 2011

NSE All-Share Index Vs OANDO- Jan '10 -Date

4-Jul-10
NSE Rebased

4-Jan-11
Oando Rebased

R = 0.7019 4-Jul-11
Poly . (Oando Rebased)

OA N D O P LC Cur rent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of i t Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End
OA N DO P LC 2010 ('000) Turnover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Prof it Margin Shareholders' Funds Net Assets ROSH RONA 19.38% 9.35% 95,004,000 53,319,000 78.18% 378,930,000 14,374,000 3.79% 2009 ('000) 336,859,000 10,096,000 3.00% CH. 12.49% 42.37% 26.57%

25.50 78.97 20.99 6.91 3.69 2,828,390,000 11.76% 10,096,000 December

OANDO PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 30 10 30 30 100 39.26 38.45 48.79 100.16 60.30

A final fair value of N60.98 after adjustment for bonus issue and dividend payment indicates that Oando is trading at a huge discount of 136.47%. We therefore maintain our LONG TERM BUY recommendation on the stock. We also expect the share price to trend towards our target price range of N35.10 N60.30 in the medium term.

15

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

October 10 14, 2011

FIDELITY BANK PLC

The current enlarged Fidelity Bank was a result of the merger with the former FSB International Bank Plc and Manny Bank Plc (under the Fidelity brand name) in December 2005 during the consolidation era. The Bank is ranked amongst the top 10 in the Nigerian banking industry, with presence in the major cities and commercial centers of the country. The Bank has partnership with various off-shore institutions, such as ANZ London, Afri-eximbank Cairo, Egypt, ABSA South Africa, Commerce Bank, Frankfurt, Citibank, N.A. London and New York, FBN Bank, UK Ltd, SCB, London, HSBC, US Ex-im Bank, USAID, etc. The Bank has international access to correspondent banking, confirmation lines, credit and other relationships with multinationals and financial organizations. The Bank has an experienced and stable management team, reputed for integrity and professionalism. The Bank, having operated as an investment bank for 11 years, has a leverage on its pedigree in its structures and service offerings for a retail populace. The audited result of the Bank for the year ended December 31, 2010 showed a turnover of N56.05 billion, as against N34.72 billion in the previous year, indicating a growth of 61.45 per cent. Profit After Tax surged by 292.10 per cent from N1.56 billion in 2009 to N6.11 billion in 2010. The Banks first quarter result ended March 31, 2011 indicated a decline of 62.23 per cent in Turnover and Profit After Tax also decreased by 5.78 per cent, when compared to the same period in 2010. However, Net Profit Margin (NPM) rose from 10.62% to 26.50%. Our technical analysis seems to indicate that the stock price trend strengthened in the week under review, as the 100-day MA is now above the 200-day MA, which suggests that the stock is attractive for long term investment. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner also show that the stock is currently below the signal line, and it seems that the price may witness an upward movement in the next couple of trading sessions. The trailing P/E Ratio of the company stood at 10.05x, compared to its sectoral P/E Ratio of 11.66x. The one year Standard Deviation of the stock price fell marginally to 2.50% from 2.53% recorded last week. The expected one year Return of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 16.00%.

NSE All-Share Index Vs FIDELITYBK - Jan '10 - Date

150.00

100.00

50.00

R = 0.148

0.00 4-Jan-10
NSE Rebased

4-Jul-10

4-Jan-11
Fidelitybk Rebased

4-Jul-11
Poly. (Fidelitybk Rebased)

FI D E LI T Y B A N K P LC Cur r ent Pr ice Year High Year Low EPS P/ E Ratio (x) Outstanding Shar es Dividend Yield Pr of it Af ter Tax '000 (Full Year ) Year End 2.01 3.20 1.67 0.20 10.05 28,974,797,023 6.97% 6,105,000 December

FI DE LI T Y BANK P LC 2010 ('0 00) Turnover Net Prof it Af ter Tax Net Pof it Margin Shareholders' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA 56,048,000 6,105,000 10.89% 136,052,000 481,614,000 4.58% 1.33% 2009 ('000) 34,716,000 1,557,000 4.48% 130,691,000 435,666,000 1.94% 0.48% CH. 61.45% 292.10% 142.87% 4.10% 10.55%

FIDELITY BANK PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 2.37 1.99 2.77 2.24 2.34

All our fundamental valuation models seems to indicate that the stock is 16.42% underpriced at a fair value of N2.34. We therefore maintain our HOLD recommendation on Fidelity Bank Plc. Furthermore, the stock may likely rally within our target price range of N2.34 N3.90 in the medium term.

16

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

October 10 14, 2011

APPENDIX
DEFINITION OF TECHNICAL ANALYTICS TERMS

Moving Average - MA
This is an indicator frequently used to measure momentum and to define areas of possible support and resistance. It shows the average value of a security's price over a set period. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations that can confuse interpretation.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Information Source The data used in this report were sourced from the audited accounts of the companies for their various financial year ends. Other sources included the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) monthly reports, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) Price List, Greenwich Research Database, and National dailies.

Valuation Models and Methodology Applied in this Report

The equity analysis was conducted using a combination of valuation models, namely: Earnings (Historical), Forecasted Earnings, Dividends Basis, and Price to Book Basis. A weighted average of all these valuation methods was taken as the final estimated fair value of the stock. The weights applied were based on our perceived applicability of the models to the different sectors of the Nigerian economy. The forecasted earnings were derived using CAGR as a forecast factor over a period of time. The most recent profit after tax, which was used as the base, was forecasted five years into the future and the average of these five years was taken as the normalized earnings in the forecasted valuation model after discounting for present value equivalent. A five year time horizon was used in most cases in order to smoothen the returns as much as possible, so as to generate a realistic returns. Despite the five year forecast horizon, adjustments were still made where estimates seemed unrealistic. Good judgment and objectivity were displayed in deriving the estimates. CAPM, which is the Capital Asset Pricing Model, was used in this report to derive the expected investment returns for one year investment timeframe. Note that this is an expectation and that returns may be significantly higher or the expected returns may be achieved over a time period much less than one year. The risk-free rate of return was the current yield on the 20-year FGN Bond recently issued with a coupon rate of 10%, while market return is the weighted average of the sector returns on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The betas of the stocks were calculated using market data covering 36 months. The price forecasts in the Report are for time horizon between 5 to 10 trading sessions. However, the forecasts may be achieved in a period less than 5 trading sessions. The forecast was based on an average of the CAGR for a 10-day trading period and the daily average growth rate of the stock price for the corresponding period. Good judgment was exercised in determining the current market trend and adjustments were made when we felt that the observed trend might not be attainable for the forecast horizon.

17

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

October 10 14, 2011

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTD

Sector AGRICULTURE AIRLINE SERVICES AUTOMOBILE & TYRE AVIATION BANKING BREWERIES BUILDING MATERIALS CHEMICAL & PAINTS COMMERCIAL/SERVICES COMPUTER & OFFICE EQUIPMENT CONGLOMERATES CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY FOOD/BEVERAGES & TOBACCO FOOTWEAR HEALTHCARE HOTEL & TOURISM INDUSTRIAL/DOMESTIC PRODUCTS INFORMATION, COMMUNICATION & TELECOMMUNICATIONS INSURANCE LEASING MACHINERY(MARKETING) MARITIME MEDIA MORTGAGE COMPANIES OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS PACKAGING PETROLEUM(MARKETING) PRINTING & PUBLISHING REAL ESTATE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECOND-TIER SECURITIES TEXTILES THE FOREIGN LISTINGS Basis of Projection Earnings Earnings Book Value Earnings Historical Dividends / Book Value / Earnings Historical Dividends Book Value Book Value Book Value Earnings Book Value Historical Dividends / Book Value Book Value Earnings Book Value Earnings Book Value Book Value Book Value Earnings Earnings Book Value Earnings Book Value Earnings Historical Dividends / Book Value Book Value / Earnings Historical Dividends / Earnings Book Value Earnings Book Value Book Value Earnings Book Value Book Value / Earnings

18

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

Investment Timeframes

October 10 14, 2011

We refer to long term investment timeframe to be a period greater than one year and short term investment timeframe to be a period less than one year. We give a Buy recommendation when the stock has good technicals and strong fundamentals, implying that the stock can be used for speculating the market, and for fundamental investing where growth and income are the investment objectives.

Hedge Clause
The report was prepared by Greenwich Research, and it is for information purposes only. Greenwich Trust Limited is under no obligation to accept any liabilities that may arise from the use of any part of this report, as no representation is made on the accuracy of the sources used in preparing the Report. The price projections for the financial year in the report were generated based on the perceived nature of business of the respective sectors. In some cases, where more than one estimates were stated, the average of the estimates was taken as the price. Analyzed below is tabularized bases of estimating the forecasts.

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