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2
portfolio
= w
A
2
2
A
+ (1 - w
A
)
2
2
B
+ 2 w
A
w
B
[
A
B
where
w
A
= Proportion of the portfolio in asset A
The last term in the variance formulation is sometimes written in terms of the covariance
in returns between the two assets, which is
AB
=
[
A
B
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The savings that accrue from diversification are a function of the correlation
coefficient.
Illustration 2: Extending the two-asset case - GE and The Home Depot
Step 1: Use historical data to estimate average returns and standard deviations in returns
for the two investments.
Stock Average Return (1990-94) Standard Deviation (1990-94)
General Electric 13.46% 18.42%
The Home Depot 53.26% 68.50%
Step 2: Estimate the correlation and covariance in returns between the two investments
using historical data.
Year
Returns on
GE(R
Ge
)
Returns on HD
(R
H
)
(R
GE
-
Avge(R
GE
))
2
(R
H
-
Avge(R
H
))
2
(R
GE
- Avge(R
GE
)
(R
H
-Avge(R
H
)
1990 -8.19% 58.82% 0.04686 0.00309 (0.01203)
1991 36.95% 161.79% 0.05518 1.17786 0.25494
1992 14.38% 50.60% 0.00008 0.00071 (0.00024)
1993 24.96% -21.75% 0.01322 0.56265 (0.08625)
1994 -0.80% 16.84% 0.02034 0.13265 0.05194
Total 0.13568 1.87696 0.20835
Variance in GE Returns = 0.13568/4 = 0.0339 Standard Deviation in GE Returns =
0.0339
0.5
= 0.1842
Variance in HD Returns = 1.87696/4 = 0.4692 Standard Deviation in HD Returns =
0.4692
0.5
= 0.6850
Covariance between GE and The Home Depot Returns = 0.20835/4 = 0.0521
Correlation between GE and The Home Depot Returns = GH = GH G H =
0.0521/(0.1842*0.6850) = 0.4129
Step 3: Compute the expected returns and variances of portfolios of the two securities
using the statistical parameters estimates above
Consider, for instance, a portfolio composed of 50% in GE and 50% in The Home Depot
p
2
= w
A
2
2
A
+ w
B
2
2
B
+ w
C
2
2
C
+ 2 w
A
w
B
AB
A
B
+ 2 w
A
w
C
AC
A
C
+ 2 w
B
w
C
BC
B
C
where
w
A
,w
B
,w
C
= Portfolio weights on assets
2
A
,
2
B
,
2
C
= Variances of assets A, B, and C
AB
,
AC
,
BC
= Correlation in returns between pairs of assets (A&B, A&C, B&C)
The Data Requirements
Number of covariance terms = n (n-1) /2
where n is the number of assets in the portfolio
Number of Covariance Terms as a function of the number of assets in portfolio
Number of
Assets
Number of covariance
terms
2 1
5 10
10 45
20 190
100 4950
1000 499500
Some Closing Thoughts on Risk
Most Investors do not measure their risk preferences in terms of standard deviation
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For other investors, risk has to be assessed by using
Scoring Systems (where investors are asked for information or questions to
answers which can be used to analyze how much risk an investor is willing to
take)
Risk categories (High; Average; Low)
Life cycle theories of investing
General Propositions:
As investors age, there will be a general increase in risk aversion, leading to greater
allocation to safer asset classes.
PORTFOLIO VALUE
The value of a portfolio constrains your choices at later stages.
This is because trading individual securities creates costs - brokerage costs, bid-
ask spreads and price impact
There is a critical mass value, below which it does not pay to actively manage a
portfolio - it is far better to invest in funds.
The larger a portfolio, the more choices become available in terms of assets - this
is largely because some components of trading costs - the brokerate costs and the
spread - may get smaller for larger portfolios.
If a portfolio becomes too large, it might start creating a price impact which might
cause trading costs to start increasing again.
Taxes do matter: Individuals should care about after-tax returns
Stock and Bond Returns: 1926-1989 - Before and After Taxes
Stocks Bonds
Market Returns $ 534.46 $ 17.30
After Transactions Cost $ 354.98 $ 11.47
After Income Taxes $ 161.55 $ 4.91
After Capital Gains Taxes $ 113.40 $ 4.87
After Inflation $ 16.10 $ 0.69
Transactions Costs: 0.5% a year; Income taxes: at 28%; Capital Gains at 28% every 20
years;
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CASH NEEDS & TIME FRAME
- What is a long time horizon?
- Determinants of time horizon
* Age
* Level of Income
* Stability of Income
* Cash Requirements
- Time Horizon and Asset Choice
Proposition: The cost of keeping funds in near-cash investments increases with the time
horizon of the investor.
THE IMPORTANCE OF ASSET ALLOCATION
The first step in all portfolio management is the asset allocation decision.
The asset allocation decision determines what proportions of the portfolio will be
invested in different asset classes.
Asset allocation can be passive,
o It can be based upon the mean-variance framework
o It can be based upon simpler rules of diversification or market value based
When asset allocation is determined by market views, it is active asset allocation.
Passive Asset Allocation: The Mean Variance View of Asset Allocation
Efficient Portfolios
Return Maximization Risk Minimization
Objective Function
Maximize Expected Return
Minimize return variance
Constraint
where,
j
= Investor's desired level of variance
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E(R) = Investor's desired expected returns
Markowitz Portfolios
The portfolios that emerge from this process are called Markowitz portfolios. These
portfolios are considered efficient, because they maximize expected returns given the
standard deviation, and the entire set of portfolios is referred to as the Efficient Frontier.
Graphically, these portfolios are shown on the expected return/standard deviation
dimensions
Application to Asset Allocation
If we have information on the expected returns and variances of different asset
classes and the covariances between asset classes, we can devise efficient
portfolios given any given level of risk.
For example, if the following is the information of 4 asset classes:
Asset Class Mean Standard deviation
U.S. stocks 12.50% 16.50%
U.S. bonds 6.50% 5.00%
Foreign Stocks 15.00% 26.00%
Real Estate 11.00% 12.50%
Correlation Matrix for Asset Classes
U.S. Stock U.S. Bonds Foreign Stocks Real Estate
U.S. Stocks 1.00 0.65 0.35 0.25
U.S. Bonds 1.00 0.15 -0.10
Foreign Stocks 1.00 0.05
Real Estate 1.00
Active Asset Allocation: The Market Timers
The objective is to create a portfolio to take advantage of 'forecasted' market movements,
up or down. Strategies could include:
* Shifting from (to) overvalued asset classes to (from) undervalued asset classes if you
expect the market to go up (down).
* Buying calls (puts) or buying (selling) futures on a market if you expect the market to
go up (down).
Assumption: we can forecast market movements
Advantage: If we can forecast market movements, the rewards are immense.
Disadvantage: If we err, the costs can be significant.
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SECURITY SELECTION
Once the asset allocation decision has been made, the portfolio manager has pick
the securities that go into the portfolio.
Again, the decision can be made on a passive basis or on active basis.
Active security selection can take several forms:
o it can be based upon fundamentals
o it can be based upon technical indicators
o it can be based upon information
Passive Security Selection: The Index Fund
Index funds are created by holding stocks in a wider index in proportion to their market
value. No attempt is made to trade on a frequent basis to catch market upswings or
downswings or select 'good' stocks.
Assumptions: Markets are efficient. Attempts to time the market and pick good stocks are
expensive and do not provide reasonable returns. Holding a well diversified portfolio
eliminates unsystematic risk.
Advantages: Transactions costs are minimal as is the cost of searching for information.
B. Markowitz Portfolio: A Markowitz efficient portfolio is created by searching through
all possible combinations of the universe of securities to find that combination that
maximizes expected return for any given level of risk.
Assumptions: The portfolio manager can identify the inputs (mean, variance, covariance)
to the model correctly and has enough computer capacity to run through the optimization
exercise.
Advantages: If historical data is used, the process is inexpensive and easily mechanised.
Disadvantages: The model is only as good as its inputs.
II. ACTIVE STRATEGIES
The objective is to use the skills of our security analysts to select stocks that will
outperform the market, and create a portfolio of these stocks. The security selection skills
can take on several forms.
(1) Technical Analysis, where charts reveal the direction of future price movements
(2) Fundamental Analysis, where public information is used to pick undervalued stocks
(3) Access to private information, which enables the analyst to pinpoint mis-valued
securities.
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Assumption: our stock selection skills help us make choices which, on average, beat the
market.
Inputs: The model will vary with the security selection model used.
Advantage: If there are systematic errors in market valuation andyour model can spot
these errors, the portfolio will outperform others in the market.
Disadvantage: If your security selection does not pay off, you have expended time and
resources to earn what another investor could have made with random selection.Security
Selection strategies vary widely and can lead to contradictory recommendations..
Technical investors can be
o momentum investors, who buy on strength and sell on weakness
o reversal investors, who do the exact opposite
Fundamental investors can be
o value investors, who buy low PE orlow PBV stocks which trade at less
than the value of assets in place
o growth investors, who buy high PE and high PBV stocks which trade at
less than the value of future growth
Information traders can believe
o that markets learn slowly and buy on good news and sell on bad news
o that markets overreact and do the exact opposite
The Trade offs on Trading
There are two components to trading and execution - the cost of execution
(trading) and the speed of execution.
Generally speaking, the tradeoff is between faster execution and lower costs.
For some active strategies (especially those based on information) speed is of the
essence.
Maximize: Speed of Execution
Subject to: Cost of execution < Excess returns from strategy
For other active strategies (such as long term value investing) the cost might be of
the essence.
Minimize: Cost of Execution
Subject to: Speed of execution < Specified time period.
The larger the fund, the more significant this trading cost/speed tradeoff becomes.
MEASURING PERFORMANCE
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* Who should measure performance?
Performance measurement has to be done either by the client or by an objective third
party on the basis of agreed upon criteria. It should not be done by the portfolio manager.
* How often should performance be measured?
The frequency of portfolio evaluation should be a function of both the time horizon of the
client and the investment philosophy of the portfolio manager. However, portfolio
measurement and reporting of value to clients should be done on a frequent basis.
* How should performance be measured?
I. Market Indices (No adjustment for risk): There are some who do not like models for
risk and return and prefer comparison to broad market indices (S&P 500, NYSE
composite, ..)
The limitation of this approach is that it does not explicitly control for risk. Thus, an
advantage is given to risky funds and money managers.
Tracking Error as a Measure of Risk
Tracking error measures the difference between a portfolios return and its benchmark
index. Thus portfolios that deliver higher returns than the benchmark
II. Against other portfolio managers
In some cases, portfolio managers are measured against other portfolio managers who
have similar objective functions. Thus, a growth fund manager may be measured against
all growth fund managers.
III. Risk-Adjusted Models
A. The CAPM: The capital asset pricing model provides a simple and intuitive measure
for measuring performance. It compares the actual returns made by a portfolio manager
with the returns he should have made, given both market performance during the period
and the beta of the portfolio created by the manager.
Abnormal Return = Actual Return - Expected Return
> 0: Outperformed
< 0: Underperformed
where,
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Actual Return = Returns on the portfolio (including dividends)
Expected Return = Riskfree rate at the start of the period + Beta of portfolio * (Actual
return on market during the period - Riskfree Rate)
This abnormal return is called Jensen's Alpha. It can also be computed by regressing the
returns on the portfolio against a market index, and then comparing the intercept to Rf (1-
Beta).
Variants: Define Rp to be the return on the portfolio and Rm to be the return on the
market.
Treynor Index = (Rp - Rf)/ Beta of the portfolio
> (Rm - Rf) : Outperformed
< (Rm - Rf) : Underperformed
Sharpe Index = (Rp - Rf)/ Variance of the portfolio
> (Rm - Rf)/sm : Outperformed
< (Rm - Rf)/sm : Underperformed
Information Ratio = Jensens alpha / Unsystematic Risk
> 0: Outperformed the market
< 0 : Underperformed
Tracking Error as a Measure of Risk
Tracking error measures the difference between a portfolio is return and its
benchmark index. Thus portfolios that deliver higher returns than the benchmark
but have higher tracking error are considered riskier.
Tracking error is a way of ensuring that a portfolio stays within the same risk
level as the benchmark index.
It is also a way in which the active in active money management can be
constrained.
Performance Attribtion
This analysis can be carried one step forward, and the overall performance of a money
manager can be decomposed into market timing and security selection components.
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If money managers are good market timers,
o they should hold high beta stocks, when the the return on the market > risk
free rate
o they should hold low beta stocks, when the return on the market < risk free
rate
Thus, the market timing capabilities of a money manager can be evaluated by
looking at the managers performance over time relative to the market. For
instance, consider the following funds
In some cases, better estimates of market timing can be obtained by fitting a quadratic
curve to actual returns.
where c is a measure of the market timing ability of a fund (money manager).
B. The APT: The arbitrage pricing theory defines the expected return in terms of
statistical factors (instead of just the market as in the CAPM). A beta is defined relative
to each factor.
C. Multi-Index Models: Multi-index models allow the performance evaluator to bring in
economic factors that may influence expected returns.
* Window Dressing and other Phenomena that cloud measurement
1. Marking up the merchandise (thinly traded stocks)
2. Tricking the technicians (stocks with breakout points)
3. Playing catch up (Buying hot stocks just before evaluation)
4. Dumping the losers just before evaluation
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THE SECURITIES & EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA [SEBI]
The great Indian Scam, which took place in the year 1991-92, credit for which goes to
one Mr. Harshad Mehta, a broker on the Bombay Stock Exchange, prompted the
Government of India to enact the Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992. The
Indian Government in fact set up the SEBI in the year 1988. However, its power to
regulate the securities markets was limited until the SEBI Act, 1992 was enacted. Though
autonomous in principle, SEBI is not independent of the Central Government. Under the
SEBI Act, the SEBI's Board is set up, composition of which is:
A Chairman,
Two members from amongst the officials of the Ministries of the Central
Government dealing with finance and law,
One member from amongst the officials of the RBI, and
Two other members to be appointed by the Central Government who shall be
professionals and have experience or special knowledge relating to the securities
markets.
SEBI has its head office in Mumbai and its three regional offices in New Delhi, Calcutta
and Chennai. Each regional office is set up to carry out inter alia the duty of over seeing
the Stock Exchange and their brokers and attend to the complaints against them, to accept
offer documents of new issues of Rs.200 million or less and to accept applications for the
registration of Merchant Bankers in Categories II, III and IV. Currently SEBI consists of
the following departments:
The Primary Market Department,
The Secondary Market Department,
The Institutional Investors, the Mergers and Requisitions, Research and Public
Department (IIMARP Department),
The Legal Department and
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The Investigation Department
The registration of FII's is dealt with by the IIMARP Department.
Role of SEBI Regulatory Body
The Controller of Capital Issue (CCI) formed under the Capital Issues Control Act
controlled upto 1992, the capital primary market. During that period, the pricing of
capital issues was controlled by CCI. The premium on issue of equity shares issued
through the primary markets was done in accordance with the Capital Issues Control Act.
The CCI guidelines were abolished with the introduction of Securities & Exchange Board
of India (SEBI) formed under the SEBI Act, 1992 with the prime objective of protecting
the interests of investors in securities, promoting the development of, and regulating, the
securities market and for matters connected therewith or incidental thereto. The SEBI
Act came into force on 30th January 1992 and with its establishment, all public issues are
governed by the rules & regulations issued by SEBI. SEBI was formed to promote fair
dealing in issue of securities and to ensure that the capital markets function efficiently,
transparently and economically in the better interests of both the issuers and the investors.
The promoters should be able to raise funds at a relatively low cost. At the same time,
investors must be protected from unethical practices and their rights must be safeguarded
so that there is a steady flow of savings into the market. There must be proper regulation
and code of conduct and fair practice by intermediaries to make them competitive and
professional. Since, its formation, SEBI has been instrumental in bringing greater
transparency in capital issues. Under the umbrella of SEBI, companies issuing shares are
free to fix the premium provided adequate disclosure is made in the offer documents.
Focus being the greater investor protection, SEBI has become a vigilant watchdog.
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Regulation of stock exchanges
The stock market in India are regulated by the central government under the securities
contracts (regulation) Act, 1956 which provides the recognition of stock exchanges,
supervision and control of recognized stock exchanges, regulation of contracts in
securities, listing of securities, transfer of securities, and many other related functions.
The securities and exchange board of India Act, 1992,provides for the establishment of
the securities and exchange Board of India (SEBI) to protect investors interest in
securities and promote and regulate the securities market.
TAX IMPLICATIONS OF INVESTING IN INDIAN EQUITIES
Tax rates on investments gains are categorized as long term & short term capital gains.
(a) Long term capital gains
Long Term investments that are held for more than 12 months are termed as long
term capital assets. Profit on sale of such assets is termed as long term capital gain
(LTCG) which as per the latest Budget notification will attract nil tax.
(b) Short term capital gains
Shares that are held for less than 12 months are classified as short term capital
assets which as per the latest Budget notification will attract 10% tax.
WHAT IS FAIR VALUE OF SHARE?
We all like bargains but, but few investors attempt to estimate a company's worth before
buying a stock. Investing requires the same discipline one exerts when purchasing a
house, a car or even groceries, literally. The problem arises when investors don't
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anticipate the amount of risk they are taking when purchasing stocks that trade at high
premiums to the intrinsic..
From a purely static point of view, the fair value of an equity share is a point of
indifference. A price level, below which we would buy the stock. Or a price level, above
which we would sell the stock. Real life, however, is more dynamic and as a stock
investor, we are dealing with moving targets. Where stock prices fluctuate madly, as
much as eight or 12 per cent every day. Thankfully, the fair value of a company does not
fluctuate with the price of its share. It is important to understand this before we proceed
with our equity investments.
How to determine fair value?
A simple method is to use the price-to-earning multiple, where the price of a company's
stock is divided by the earnings per share of a company. Which makes sense since growth
in earnings is a proxy for how well a company is performing within a given market
opportunity. However, as long-term investors we are interested in absolute value,
irrespective of how the stock market is currently pricing the company. Here, the P/E loses
relevance since it is will be continuously influenced by the demand or supply for a
company's stock on the numerator side.
Earnings per share, which represents the denominator side of the P/E, also may not help.
Since all earnings do not equal free cash flows. Most of it is ploughed back into the
company via capital expenditures. And as investors we are interested in the surplus cash
(though this term has many variations, it is loosely defined as the cash after providing for
recurring capital expenditures plus depreciation and taxes, the later being a non-cash
charge).
This dictum is codified in the discounted cash flow model. Which says, that the value of a
stock is equal only of the free cash flows it produces in the future, discounted back to the
present? When we discount future income, we essentially adjust for the fact that a rupee
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in hand today is more valuable than a rupee to be received in the future because today's
rupee can be invested elsewhere to generate a return. The DCF allows us to discount
incoming cash flows by a rate, which we believe equates the level of risk we are
assuming. This risk-adjusted value then is compared with the prevailing stock price to
check a company's investment worthiness. If a stock is said to be trading at fair value, it
simply means that the market is pricing it according to the value it represents. Otherwise,
it could either be bought or sold short. With minor modifications, the DCF can be used to
value a range of companies, from those growing faster than the economy to those
growing slower, or matching the pace of the economy.
Limitations
However, like all other valuation models, the DCF too has its limitations. For decades it
served analysts and investors well until faced with the prospect of valuing companies in
the so-called new economy businesses.
Not that the basic premises of the DCF are under question, but how does one account for
companies where revenues are growing at a rate, which have a high element of surprise.
And small changes in the amount of information available can bring about large changes
in stock prices. How does one come up with an appropriate discount rate, which reflects
the high level of technological risk for many such companies?
How does the DCF model build in for a boost in valuation that comes when a company is
taken over by another? Or when Infosys' seemingly expensively priced stock becomes a
relatively inexpensive form of currency acquisitions.
The inability to predict the fair value for these companies also causes their stock prices to
fluctuate beyond wildest imaginations. Limited free float also creates price distortions.
To stretch it a bit, using the words of John Burr Williams, who pioneered the concept of
DCF: "They (the stock market) had high hopes for the business, but no logical evaluation
of these hopes in terms of stock prices. The very fact that the company was one of the
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hardest of all stocks to appraise was the reason it sold at extravagant prices, for
speculation ever feeds on mystery, as we have seen before."
Hence distinguish between 'price' and 'value'
In the end, instead of grasping on the appropriate valuation for these companies, investors
can caution themselves by thinking more carefully in terms of 'price' versus 'value'.
Price is not value. Price is what we pay. Value is what we get in return for owning a piece
of a company. When we shop for a consumer durable, we don't pay the list price without
being sure of the quality of the product and consistency of its expected performance.
Similar issues should matter more while investing--the qualimanagement, nature of the
company's business, the ability of the management to sustain growth and so on.
Alternatively, think about the return that we will need to compensate for the investment
risk given the quality of the management and the nature of business. If we cannot see a
company providing such a return over a longer term, do not invest.
When it comes to investing choosing a great company is only the starting point. In order
to make a good profit investors must buy the stocks of great companies at sensible prices.
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EQUITY
Equity or stocks is a share in the ownership of a company. Stocks represent a claim on
the companys assets and earnings. As you acquire more stock, your ownership stake in
the company becomes greater.
BEING AN OWNER:
Holding a companys stock means that you are one of the many owners (share holders) of
a company, as such, you have a claim (albeit usually very small) to everything the
company owns. A stock is represented by a stock certificate. This is a piece of paper that
is a proof of your ownership.
Being a shareholder of a public company does not mean you have a say in the day-to-day
running of the business. Instead, one vote per share to elect the board of directors at
annual meetings is the extent to one has a say in the company.
The importance of being a shareholder is that one is entitled to a portion of the
companys profits and has a claim on assets. Profits are sometimes paid out in the form of
dividends. The more shares you own, the larger the portion of the profits you get. Your
claim on assets is only relevant if a company goes bankrupt. In case of liquidation, youll
receive whats left after all the creditors have been paid. Thus, the importance of stock
ownership is your claim on assets and earnings. Without this, the stock wouldnt be worth
the paper its printed on.
Another extremely important feature of stock is its limited liability, which means that, as
an owner of a stock, one is not personally liable if the company is not able to pay its
debts.
DEBT VERSUS EQUITY:
A company issues stocks, as at some point every company needs to raise money. To do
this, companies can either borrow it from somebody or raise it by selling part of the
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company, which is known as issuing stock. A company can borrow by taking a loan from
a bank or by issuing bonds. Both the methods are known as debt financing. On the
other hand, issuing stock is called equity financing. Later one is more advantageous for
a company as it does not require the company to pay back the money or make interest
payments along the way.
RISK:
It must be emphasized that there are no guarantees when it comes to individual stocks.
Some companies pay out dividends, but many others dont. And there is no obligation to
pay out dividends even for those firms that have traditionally given them.
Although risk might sound all negative, there is also a bright side. Taking on greater risk
demands a greater return on your investment. This is the reason why stocks have
historically outperformed other investments such as bonds or saving accounts. A great
proof of the power of owning equities is GENERAL ELECTRIC. One share bought in
1928 would be worth over $65,000 today.
TYPES OF STOCK:
There are two main types of stocks: common stock and preferred stock.
COMMON STOCK:
Common shares represent ownership in a company and a claim (dividends) on a portion
of profits. Investors get one vote per share to elect the board members, who oversee the
major decisions made by management. Over the long term, common stock, by means of
capital growth, yields higher returns than almost every other investment. This higher
return comes at a cost since common stocks entail the most risk.
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PREFERRED STOCK:
Preferred stock represents some degrees of ownership in a company but usually doesnt
come with the same voting rights. With preferred shares investors are usually guaranteed
a fixed dividend forever. Another advantage is that in the event of liquidation preferred
shareholders are paid off before the common shareholders.
STOCK BASICS:
THE BULLS
A bull market is when everything in the economy is great, people are finding jobs, GDP
is growing, and stocks are rising. Picking stocks during a bull market is easier because
everything is going up. Bull markets cannot last forever though, and sometimes they can
lead to dangerous situations if stocks become overvalued.
THE BEARS
A bear market is when the economy is bad, recession is looming, and stock prices are
falling. Bear markets make it tough for investors to pick profitable stocks. One solution to
this is to make money when stocks are falling using a technique called short selling.
Another strategy is to wait on the sidelines until you feel that the bear market is nearing
its end, only starting to buy in anticipation of a bull market.
IPOS / PUBLIC ISSUES
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An Initial Public Offer (IPO) is a means of collecting money from the public by a
company for the first time in the market to fund its projects. In return, the company gives
the share to the investors in the company.
In an IPO, the Lead managers decide the price of the issue. In a book-building offer, the
syndicate members decide the indicative price range and the investors decide the price of
the issue through a tender method.
A draft prospectus provides the information on the financials of the company, promoters,
background, tentative issue price etc. It is filed by the Lead Managers with the Securities
& Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to provide issue details. Overview of the draft
prospectus can be seen on www.sebi.gov.in (SEBIs web site). The final prospectus is
printed after obtaining the clearance from SEBI and the Registrar of Companies (ROC).
This differs from issue to issue. In a normal issue, the Lead managers decide the value
and this would be notified on the form. In a book building issue, a price range is declared
and the investors who quote higher value would be allotted. In Highlights page of any
IPO these issues are explained in detail.
For a public issue, you can know the status by calling the registrar (you will know about
the registrar on the Highlights Page of the issue) after 30 to 40 days from the closing date
of the issue. However, in a book building issue, you can know the status by calling the
registrar after 20 days from the closing date.
In a public issue, you will be getting refund or share certificates after 40-45 days from the
closing date of the issue. In a book building issue, you will be getting the
refund/certificates in 30-40 days from the closing date. The Share certificates will also be
mailed around the same time if you have got the allotment.
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DEPOSITORY SYSTEM
Technology has changed the face of the Indian stock markets in the post liberalization
era. Competition amongst the stock exchanges, increase in the number of players, and
changes in the trading system led to a tremendous increase in the volume of activity. The
traditional settlement and clearing system proved to be inadequate due to operational
inefficiencies. Hence, there emerged a need to replace this traditional system with a new
system called the Depository System.
DEPOSITORY
A depository can be compared to a bank. A depository holds securities (like shares,
debentures, bonds, Government Securities, units etc.) of investors in electronic form.
Besides holding securities, a depository also provides services related to transactions in
securities.
According to section 2(e) of the Depositories Act, 1996, Depository means a company
formed and registered under the companies Act, 1956 and which has been granted a
certificate of registration under section 12(1A) of the securities and exchanges board of
India Act, 1992.
A depository interfaces with the investors through its agents called Depository
Participants (DPs). If an investor wants to avail the services offered by the depository, the
investor has to open an account with a DP. This is similar to opening an account with any
branch of a bank in order to utilize the bank's services. Suggestions on how to select a DP
are given in Section IV.
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The benefits of participation in a depository are:
Immediate transfer of securities;
No stamp duty on transfer of securities;
Elimination of risks associated with physical certificates such as bad delivery ,
fake securities , etc.;
Reduction in paperwork involved in transfer of securities;
Reduction in transaction cost;
Nomination facility;
Change in address recorded with DP gets registered electronically with all
companies in which investor holds securities eliminating the need to correspond
with each of them separately;
Transmission of securities is done by DP eliminating correspondence with
companies;
Convenient method of consolidation of folios/accounts ;
Holding investments in equity, debt instruments and Government securities in a
single account;
Automatic credit into demat account, of shares, arising out of
split/consolidation/merger etc.
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In India we have two depositories: NSDL and CDSL.
NSDL offers following facilities: -
Dematerialization i.e., converting physical certificates to electronic form;
Facilitating repurchase / redemption of units of mutual funds;
Electronic settlement of trades in stock exchanges connected to NSDL;
Pledging/hypothecation of dematerialized securities against loan;
Electronic credit of securities allotted in public issues, rights issue;
Receipt of non-cash corporate benefits such as bonus, in electronic form;
Freezing of demat accounts, so that the debits from the account are not permitted;
Nomination facility for demat accounts;
Services related to change of address;
Effecting transmission of securities;
Instructions to your DP over Internet through SPEED-e facility. (Please check
with your DP for availing the facility);
Account monitoring facility over Internet for clearing members through SPEED-e
facility;
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Other facilities viz. holding debt instruments in the same account, availing stock
lending/borrowing facility, etc.
NSDL provides its services to investors through its agents called depository participants
(DPs). These agents are appointed by NSDL with the approval of SEBI. According to
SEBI regulations, amongst others, three categories of entities i.e. Banks, Financial
Institutions and Members of Stock Exchanges [brokers] registered with SEBI can become
DPs. You can get a list of DPs from NSDL's office or from our website at
www.nsdl.co.in.
One can select his DP to open a demat account just like one select a bank for opening a
savings account.
Some of the important factors for selection of a DP can be:
Convenience - Proximity to your office/residence, business hours.
Comfort - Reputation of the DP, past association with the
organization, whether the DP is in a position to give the
specific service you may need?
Cost - The service charges levied by DP and the service standards.
In order to obtain the complete list of DP locations and
their comparative charge structure, one may log on
to or else may write to NSDL for the same.
All the DPs are appointed subject to fulfillment of uniform requirements of SEBI
(Depositories and Participants) Regulations, 1996 and requirements of NSDL. However,
the type of services offered and the service standards may differ among various DPs. For
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example, a DP branch having direct connectivity with the main office having depository
set-up may be in a position to execute instructions faster.
One can approach any DP of his choice and fill up an account opening form. At the time
of opening an account, he has to sign an agreement with DP in a NSDL prescribed
standard agreement, which details him and his DPs rights and duties.
All investors have to submit following proof of identity and proof of address along with
the prescribed account opening form.
Proof of Identity: The signature and photograph must be authenticated
by an existing demat account holder with the same DP
or by his bank. Alternatively, one can submit a copy
of Passport, Voters Id Card, and Driving License or
PAN card with photograph.
Proof of Address: One can submit a copy of Passport, Voters Id
Card, Driving License or PAN card with
photograph, ration card or bank passbook as proof
of address.
Passport-size photograph: One must remember to take original
documents to the DP for verification. He
should remember to obtain a copy of
the agreement and schedule of charges for
your future reference.
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A person can open more than one account with the same DP. There is no restriction on
the number of accounts one can open with a DP. Just as one can have savings or current
accounts with more than one bank, one can open accounts with more than one DP.
The depository has not prescribed any minimum balance. One can have zero balance in
his account.
The demat account must be opened in the same ownership pattern in which the securities
are held in the physical form. e. g. if one share certificate is in one individual name and
another certificate is jointly held in one and his wife's name, two different accounts
would have to be opened.
In case if one has physical certificates with the same combination of names, but the
sequence of names is different. i.e. some certificates with husband as first holder and wife
as second holder and other set of certificates with wife as first holder and husband as the
second holder, he may open only one account with husband and wife as the account
holders and lodge the security certificates with different order of names for
dematerialization in the same account. He will fill-up an additional form called
Transposition cum Demat" form. This would help him to effect change in the order of
names as well as dematerialize the securities.
One can authorize any person to operate his account by executing a power of attorney
and submit it to the DP.
It is compulsory to give bank details while opening a DP account. the bank account
number will be mentioned on the interest or dividend warrants, to which is entitled, so
that such warrant cannot be encashed by any one else. Further, a DP cannot open the
account if bank account number is not given.
'Standing Instruction' given in the account opening form
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In a bank account, credit to the account is given only when a 'paying in' slip is submitted
together with cash/cheque. Similarly, in a depository account 'Receipt in' form has to be
submitted to receive securities in the account.
However, for the convenience of investors, facility of 'standing instruction' is given. If
you say 'Yes' for standing instruction, you need not submit 'Receipt in' slip everytime you
buy securities.
The demat account cannot be operated on "either or survivor" basis like the bank account.
Names of the accountholders for a depository account cannot be changed. If one wants to
change name or add / delete an accountholder, he need to open a new account in the
desired holding pattern (names) and transfer the securities to the newly opened account.
The old account may be closed.
In case the address is changed, one has to inform the new address to his DP(s). When DP
enters the new address in the depository computer system, it will be automatically
conveyed to all companies in which he holds shares.
One can submit account closure request to his DP in prescribed form. His DP will
transfer all his securities, as per his instruction, and close his demat account.
The charges for account closure and securities transfer due to account closing would be
as per the schedule of charges of ones DP, agreed by him at the time of account opening
or any subsequent changes therein.
NOMINATION
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Only individuals holding beneficiary accounts either singly or jointly can make
nomination. Non-individuals including society, trust, body corporate, partnership firm,
karta of Hindu Undivided Family, holder of power of attorney cannot nominate.
Nomination is permitted for accounts with joint holders. But, in case of death of any of
the joint holder(s), the securities will be transmitted to the surviving holder(s). Only in
the event of death of all the joint holders, the securities will be transmitted to the
nominee.
NRI can nominate directly. But, the power of attorney holder cannot nominate on behalf
of NRI.
A minor cannot nominate either directly or through its guardian. But he can be a
nominee. In such a case, the guardian will sign on behalf of the nominee and in addition
to the name and photograph of the nominee, the name, address and the photograph of the
guardian must be submitted to the DP.
Only an individual can be a nominee. A nominee shall not be a society, trust, body
corporate, partnership firm and karta of Hindu Undivided Family or a power of attorney
holder.
There can not be more than one nominee for one depository account.
Separate nomination can not be made for each security held in a depository account. It
can be made account wise and not security wise.
A NRI can be a nominee subject to the exchange control regulations in force from time
to time.
Procedure for nomination
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The nomination form duly filled-in should be submitted to the DP either at the time of
account opening or later. The account holder, nominee and two witnesses must sign this
form and the name, address and photograph of the nominee must be submitted. If
nomination was not made at the time of account opening, it can be made subsequently by
submitting the nomination form.
The nomination can be changed anytime by the account holder/s by simply filling up the
nomination form once again and submitting it to the DP.
TRANSMISSION
Transmission is the process by which securities of a deceased account holder are
transferred to the account of the surviving joint holder(s)/nominee/legal heirs of the
deceased account holder. Process of transmission in case of dematerialized holdings is
more convenient as the transmission formalities for all securities held in a demat account
can be completed by submitting documents to the DP whereas in case of physical
securities the surviving joint holder(s)/nominee/ legal heirs has to correspond
independently with each company in which shares are held.
Procedure for transmission of securities to the nominee in case of the death of the
sole account holder:
In case of the death of the sole holder, for the purpose of transmission of securities, the
nominee has to submit a duly filled-in transmission form, notarized copy of death
certificate and an affidavit in the prescribed format to the DP. After verifying these
documents and if found in order, the DP will transmit the securities to the account of the
nominee.
In case the sole account holder does not make nomination, the securities would be
transmitted to the account of legal heir(s), as may be determined by an order of the
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competent court. However in cases where the value of securities to be transmitted is less
than Rs. 1,00,000/- the DP may process the request based on submission of necessary
letter of indemnity, surety, affidavits and NOC documents.
Procedure for transmission in case of Joint Accounts
In the event of death of one of the joint holders the securities will be transmitted to the
surviving holder(s) on submission of Transmission Form and notarized copy of the death
certificate of the deceased joint holder to the DP. For transmission of securities, the
account of the surviving holder(s) must be in the same sequence in which the names
appear in the joint account to be closed.
DEMATERIALISATION
Dematerialization is the process by which physical certificates of an investor are
converted to an equivalent number of securities in electronic form and credited in the
investor's account with its DP. In order to dematerialize certificates; an investor will have
to first open an account with a DP and then request for the dematerialization of
certificates by filling up a dematerialization request form [DRF], which is available with
the DP and submitting the same along with the physical certificates. The investor has to
ensure that before the certificates are handed over to the DP for demat, they are defaced
by marking "Surrendered for Dematerialization" on the face of the certificates.
One cannot dematerialize any share certificate. Only those certificates that are already
registered in his name and are in the list of securities admitted for dematerialization at
NSDL. All the scrips included in S&P, CNX, NIFTY and BSE SENSEX have already
joined NSDL. This list has more than 4,300 companies and is steadily growing. One can
get an updated list of these companies from his DP or from NSDL's office or from NSDL
website at www.nsdl.co.in.
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Before defacing the share certificate, one must ensure that it is available for
dematerialization .He must therefore check with his Depository Participant (DP) whether
the ISIN (code number for the security in a depository system) has been activated and
made available for dematerialization by the depository. If yes, then he may deface the
share certificate. The certificates are defaced by marking "Surrendered for
Dematerialization" on the face of the certificate.
Dematerialization will normally take about 30 days.
If the process of dematerialization takes more than 30 days, one should contact his DP. If
he (DP) is unable to help him, then he may send his grievance to:
The Officer in Charge
Investor Grievance Cell
National Securities Depository Limited
4th Floor, Trade World
Kamala Mills Compound
Senapati Bapat Marg
Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013
Email: relations@nsdl.co.in
Difference between a Demat Share and a Physical Share
A demat share is held by the depository on behalf of the investor whereas a
physical share is held by the investor himself,
The holding and handling of a demat share is done electronically, whereas a
physical share is in the form of a paper,
The demat share can be converted into a physical share on request. This is
referred to as the rematerialization of share.
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The demat share does not have a folio number, distinctive number, or certificate
number like a physical share. Though there is no stamp duties on the transfer of
demat shares from one account to another. The depository participant charges a
transaction fee and levies asset holding charges.
There is, however no difference between demat share and physical shares as far as the
beneficial interests of ownership of securities are concerned. The owner is entitled to
exactly the same beneficial interests of ownership of securities are concerned. The owner
is entitled to exactly the same benefits of ownership of a security no matter in what form
it is maintained.
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES AND DEBT INSTRUMENTS
One dematerialize his debt instruments, mutual fund units, government securities also in
his demat account and hold all such investments in a single demat account.
REMATERIALISATION
Can ones electronic holdings be converted back into certificates?
If one wishes to get back his securities in physical form, he can, all he has to do is to
request his DP for dematerializations of the same. 'Dematerializations' is the term used
for converting electronic holdings back into certificates. Ones DP will forward his
request to NSDL, after verifying that he has the necessary balance. NSDL in turn will
intimate the registrar who will print the certificates and dispatch the same to him.
TRADING / SETTLEMENT
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The procedure for selling dematerialized securities
The procedure for selling dematerialized securities is very simple. After one has sold the
securities, he would instruct his DP to debit his account with the number of securities
sold by him and credit his broker's clearing account. This delivery instruction has to be
given to his DP using the delivery instruction slips given to him by his DP at the time of
opening the account.
Procedure for selling securities is given here below:
One sell securities in any of the stock exchanges linked to NSDL through a
broker;
One gives instruction to his DP to debit his account and credit the broker's
[clearing member pool] account;
Before the pay-in day, his broker gives instruction to its DP for delivery to
clearing corporation;
His broker receives payment from the stock exchange [clearing corporation];
One receives payment from the broker for the sale of securities.
To purchase dematerialized securities one may give a one-time standing instruction to his
DP. This standing instruction can be given at the time of account opening or later.
Alternatively, one may choose to give separate receipt instruction every time some
securities are to be received.
The transactions relating to purchase of securities are summarized below:
One purchase securities through a broker;
One makes payment to his broker who arranges payment to clearing corporation
on the pay-in day;
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His broker receives credit of securities in its clearing account (clearing member
pool account) on the pay-out day;
His broker gives instructions to its DP to debit clearing account and credit his
account;
One receives shares into his account. However, if standing instructions are not
given at the time of opening the account, one will have to give 'Receipt
Instructions' to his DP for receiving credit;
One should ensure that his broker transfers the securities from its clearing account
to his depository account, before the book closure. If the securities remain in the
clearing account of the broker, the company will give corporate benefits (dividend
or bonus) to the broker. In that case, one will have to collect the benefits from his
broker.
TRADING OF STOCKS:
Most stocks are traded on exchanges, which are places where buyers and sellers meet and
decide on a price. Some exchanges are physical locations where transactions are carried
out on a trading floor. The other type of exchange is virtual, composed of a network of
computers where trades are made electronically.
The purpose of a stock market is to facilitate the exchange of securities between buyers
and sellers, thus reducing the risks of investing.
There are two kinds of market: -
Primary markets:
Primary markets are those where securities are created.
Secondary markets:
In the secondary market, the previously issued securities are traded.
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Why do stock prices go up and down?
Fluctuations in a stocks price occur partly because companies make or lose money. But
that is not the only reason. There are many other factors not directly related to the
company or its sector. Interest rates, for instance. When interest rates on deposits or
bonds are high, stock prices generally go down. In such a situation, investors can make a
decent amount of money by keeping their money in banks or in bonds. Why should they
face the extra risks of the stock market? Money supply may also affect stock prices. If
there is more money floating around, some of it may flow into stocks, pushing up their
prices. Other factors that cause price fluctuations are the time of year, and publicity.
Some stocks are seasonal; they do well only during certain parts of the year and worse
during other parts. Publicity affects stock prices. If a newspaper story reports that Zee
Television has bought a stake in Asianet, odds are that the price of Zees stock will rise if
the market thinks its a good decision. Otherwise it will fall. The price of Asianet stocks
may also go up because investors may feel that it is now in better hands. Conversely, if
an article says that a company's president is a crook and has used the money raised to
build a palatial bungalow for him, and then it is a good bet that the price of that
companys stock will fall. Thus, many factors affect the price of a stock. The behavior of
the price movement of a stock is said to predict its future movement. The behavior is
analyzed by plotting on a graph the price movement against any standard index. This is
called technical analysis. It tells you when to buy a stock. Analysis of the fundamentals
of a company, on the other hand, tells you which stock to buy.
Ek-ka-do.
Stocks also go for splits. One fine day if the company whose 50 stocks you own and
having a current market price of Rs 40, declares a 2-for-1 split, you will now own 100
stocks of the company. The market will then halve the price, unless it has reasons to be
more bullish, to around Rs 20. Stock splits should not normally raise the value of your
stocks, since the prices fall to compensate for the larger number of shares held. The main
advantage of a stock split is that it improves liquidity. You can sell 50 shares and retain
the other 50. Usually companies go for stock splits when the stock's price zooms up to
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some phenomenal level and hence, becomes out of reach of many investors. Splits in
such cases make stocks affordable and usually lead to increased buying and, hence, also
increase liquidity. Naturally, it is expected that the stock's value will make an upward
ascent soon after the split and investors will stand to gain. We can also have a do-ka-ek.
Companies sometimes declare to retire their stocks in a certain proportion of their
outstanding stocks. Hence, a 1-for-2 reverse split would mean that any shareholder will
now own half the number of shares with the price of each being double as before the
reverse split. However, the total value of the holding will remain the same on the day of
the split. Reverse splits are currently not allowed in India though companies can buy back
their shares up to a certain percentage of the outstanding number of shares. Companies
usually go for reverse splits to boost up the stock's price, which might be performing
badly for a long time. A hiked price might invite more investors.
The important points to grasp about the trade on the stock are the
following:
At the most fundamental level, supply and demand in the market determine stock
price.
Price times the number of shares outstanding (market capitalization) is the value
of a company. Comparing just the share price of two companies is meaningless.
Theoretically earnings are what affect investors' valuation of a company, but there
are other indicators that investors use to predict stock price. Remember, it is
investors' sentiments, attitudes, and expectations that ultimately affect stock
prices.
There are many theories that try to explain the way stock prices move the way
they do. Unfortunately, there is no one theory that can explain everything.
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P/E RATIO:
P/E is short for the ratio of a company's share price to its per-share earnings. As the name
implies, to calculate the P/E you simply take the current stock price of a company and
divide by its earnings per share (EPS):
P/E Ratio = [Market Value per Share/Earnings per Share (EPS)]
Most of the time, the P/E is calculated using EPS from the last four quarters. This is also
known as the trailing P/E. However, occasionally the EPS figure comes from estimated
earnings expected over the next four quarters. This is known as the leading or projected
P/E. A third variation that is also sometimes seen uses the EPS of the past two quarters
and estimates of the next two quarters.
There isn't a huge difference between these variations. But it is important to realize that,
in the first calculation, you are using actual historical data. The other two
calculations are based on analyst estimates that are not always perfect or precise.
Companies that aren't profitable, and consequently have a negative EPS, pose a challenge
when it comes to calculating their P/E. Opinions vary on how to deal with this. Some say
there is a negative P/E, others give a P/E of 0, and while most just say the P/E doesn't
exist.
Historically, the average P/E ratio in the market has been around 15-25. This fluctuates
significantly depending on economic conditions at the time. The P/E can also vary widely
between different companies and industries.
Uses the P/E Ratio
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Theoretically, a stock's P/E tells us how much investor is willing to pay per rupee of
earnings. For this reason it's also called the "multiple" of a stock. In other words, a P/E
ratio of 20 suggests that investors in the stock are willing to pay Rs.20 for every Rs.1 of
earnings that the company generates. However, this is a far too simplistic way of viewing
the P/E because it fails to take into account the company's growth prospects.
Growth of Earnings
Although the EPS figure in the P/E is usually based on earnings from the last four
quarters, the P/E is more than a measure of a company's past performance. It also takes
into account market expectations for the growth of a company. Remember, stock prices
reflect what investors think a company will be worth. Future growth is already accounted
for in the stock price. As a result, a better way of interpreting the P/E ratio is as a
reflection of the market's optimism concerning a company's growth prospects.
If a company has a P/E higher than the market or industry average, this means the market
is expecting big things over the next few months or years. A company with a high P/E
ratio will eventually have to live up to the high rating by substantially increasing its
earnings, or the stock price will need to drop.
A good example is Microsoft. Several years ago, when it was growing by leaps and
bounds, its P/E ratio was over 100. Today, Microsoft is one of the largest companies in
the world, so its revenues and earnings can't maintain the same growth as before. The
result is a current P/E ratio of 43 (at the time of writing, in June 2002). This reduction in
the P/E ratio is a common occurrence as high growth startups solidify their reputations
and turn into blue chips.
Cheap or Expensive?
The P/E ratio is a much better indicator of the value of a stock than the market price
alone. For example, all things being equal, an Rs.10 stock with a P/E of 75 is much more
"expensive" than an Rs.100 stock with a P/E of 20. That being said, there are limits to
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this form of analysis -- you can't just compare the P/Es of two different companies to
determine which a better value is.
It's difficult to determine whether a particular P/E is high or low without taking into
account two main factors:
Company growth rates:
How fast has the company been growing in the past, and are these rates expected to
increase or at least continue into the future? Something isn't right if a company has only
grown at 5% in the past and still has a stratospheric P/E. If projected growth rates don't
justify the P/E, then a stock might be overpriced. In this situation, all you have to do is
calculate the P/E using projected EPS.
Industry:
It is only useful to compare companies if they are in the same industry. For example,
utilities typically have low multiples because they are low growth, stable industries. In
contrast, the technology industry is characterized by phenomenal growth rates and
constant change. Comparing a tech to a utility is useless.
Problems with the P/E:
So far we've learned that, in the right circumstances, the P/E ratio can help us determine
whether a company is over or under-valued. But P/E analysis is only valid in certain
circumstances and it has its pitfalls. Some factors that can undermine the usefulness of
the P/E ratio include:
Accounting-
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Earnings are an accounting figure that includes non-cash items. Furthermore, the
guidelines for determining earnings are governed by accounting rules (GAAP) that
change over time and are different in each country. To complicate matters, EPS can be
twisted, prodded and squeezed into various numbers depending on how you do the books
(for more on this see our article:"The Different Types of EPS"). The result is that we
often don't know whether we are comparing the same figures, or apples to oranges.
Inflation-
In times of high inflation, inventory and depreciation costs tend to be understated because
the replacement costs of goods and equipment rises with the general level of prices. Thus,
P/E ratios tend to be lower during times of high inflation because the market sees
earnings as artificially distorted upwards. As with all ratios, it's more valuable to look at
the P/E over time in order to determine the trend. Inflation makes this difficult, as past
information is less useful today.
ROLE OF FII INVESTMENT IN INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET
India embarked on a programmed of economic reforms in the early 1990s to tie over its
balance of payment crisis and also as a step towards globalization. An important
milestone in the history of Indian economic reforms happened on September 14, 1992,
when the FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) were allowed to invest in all the securities
traded on the primary and secondary markets, including shares, debentures and warrants
issued by companies which were listed or were to be listed on the stock exchanges in
India and in the schemes floated by domestic mutual funds. Initially, the holding of a
single FII and of all FIIs, NRIs (Non-Resident Indians) and OCBs (Overseas Corporate
Bodies) in any company was subject to a limit of 5% and 24% of the companys total
issued capital respectively. In order to broad base the FII investment and to ensure that
such an investment would not become a camouflage for individual investment in the
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nature of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), a condition was laid down that the funds
invested by FIIs had to have at least 50 participants with no one holding more than 5%.
Ever since this day, the regulations on FII investment have gone through enormous
changes and have become more liberal over time. From November 1996, FIIs were
allowed to make 100% investment in debt securities subject to specific approval from
SEBI as a separate category of FIIs or sub-accounts as 100% debt funds. Such
investments were, of course, subjected to the fund-specific ceiling prescribed by SEBI
and had to be within an overall ceiling of US $ 1.5 billion. The investments were,
however, restricted to the debt instruments of companies listed or to be listed on the stock
exchanges. In 1997, the aggregate limit on investment by all FIIs was allowed to be
raised from 24% to 30% by the Board of Directors of individual companies by passing a
resolution in their meeting and by a special resolution to that effect in the companys
General Body meeting. From the year 1998, the FII investments were also allowed in the
dated government securities, treasury bills and money market instruments. In 2000, the
foreign corporates and high net worth individuals were also allowed to invest as sub-
accounts of SEBI-registered FIIs. FIIs were also permitted to seek SEBI registration in
respect of sub-accounts. This was made more liberal to include the domestic portfolio
managers or domestic asset management companies. 40% became the ceiling on
aggregate FII portfolio investment in March 2000. This was subsequently raised to 49%
on March 8, 2001 and to the specific sectoral cap in September 2001. As a move towards
further liberalization, the Finance Minister announced in his budget speech on February
28, 2002 that, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) can invest in a company under the
portfolio investment route beyond 24 per cent of the paid up capital of the company with
the approval of the general body of the shareholders by a special resolution. I propose
that now FII portfolio investments will not be subject to the sectoral limits for foreign
direct investment except in specified sectors. Guidelines in this regard will be issued
separately.
Accordingly, a committee was set up on March 13, 2002 to identify the sectors in which
FIIs portfolio investments will not be subject to the sectoral limits for FDI, under the
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chairmanship of Dr. Rakesh Mohan. Later, on December 27, 2002 the committee was
reconstituted and Dr. Ashok K.Lahiri became the chairman. The committee has come out
with recommendations in June 2004.The committee has proposed that, In general, FII
investment ceilings, if any, may be reckoned over and above prescribed FDI sectoral
caps. The 24 per cent limit on FII investment imposed in 1992 when allowing FII inflows
was exclusive of the FDI limit. The suggested measure will be in conformity with this
original stipulation. The committee also has recommended that the special procedure for
raising FII investments beyond 24 per cent up to the FDI limit in a company may be
dispensed with by amending the relevant regulations.
Meanwhile, the increase in investment ceiling for FIIs in debt funds from US $ 1 billion
to US $ 1.75 billion has been notified in 2004. The SEBI also has reduced the turnaround
time for processing of FII applications for registrations from 13 working days to 7
working days except in the case of banks and subsidiaries.
All these are indications for the countrys continuous efforts to mobilize more foreign
investment through portfolio investment by FIIs. The FII portfolio flows have also been
on the rise since September 1992.
One of the events that have gone into the history book of the Indian Economy during the
calendar year 2004 is the newer peaks of the stock markets. The year, before closing,
achieved an all time high of both Sensex and Nifty around 6602 and 2080 respectively.
While a lot of reasons could be cited as reasons for this stock markets rally, the role of
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) can not be overlooked. In fact, the FIIs have been
playing a key role in the Indian financial markets since their entry into this country in the
early 1990s. Their importance has been growing over time as their net investment is on
the rise over time. The calendar year that just concluded has received an historic net
inflow from FIIs to the tune of US $ 9.187 billion which is around 28 per cent of the total
inflows the country has received till December 31, 2004. A huge portion of these inflows
has been received during the last six months of the year, July-December 2004. This
explosive portfolio flows by FIIs brings with them great advantages as they are engines
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of growth lowering the cost of capital in many emerging markets. They facilitate the flow
of capital to firms and countries that offer the best investment opportunities breaking the
geographical boundaries. They also bring with them the much wanted breadth and depth
into the capital markets of the emerging economies.
FIIs were first allowed to make portfolio investment in India on September 14, 1992,
initially with lots of restrictions. The regulations on them are liberalized over time and at
minimal now. The FIIs which made a modest beginning in 1993-94 at US $ 1638 million
stood at US $ 25754 million as of 2003-04. Because of the historical flows that the year
2004 witnessed, they are at US $ 32086.90 million as of December 31, 2004. This
increase in investment by FIIs is also accompanied by an increase in the number of
registered FIIs and sub accounts. There has been an addition of 195 sub accounts and 85
FIIs since the beginning of this financial year. The total number of registered FIIs is 637
as at the end of December 2004.
The size and robustness of the FIIs role in Indian capital markets can be better understood
by looking at the assets under their custody as compared to other institutions and
participants. As of November 2004, the total assets held by the FIIs stood at Rs.198243
crores as compared to Rs. 91084 crores with mutual funds and Rs.42855 with financial
institutions including banks.
In fact, the FIIs are the more predominant players in the equity market than the Mutual
funds. The total investment by the mutual funds in the Indian equity markets is just
Rs.1308 crores whereas, the same figure for the FIIs is Rs.39,959 crores as of 2003-04.
(RBI Annual Report, 2003-04) However, their roles in the debt markets are reversed with
mutual funds assuming a more important one than their counter part FIIs.
FIIs investment in Indian equity markets
The equity market capitalization in India has grown from Rs.7.25 trillion in March 2003
to Rs.13.77 trillion in March 2004. This equity market capitalization works out to US $
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310 billion. This has pushed Indian equity market into a significant one among those of
the emerging economies. The equity market capitalization is around 49 per cent of 2003-
04 GDP which places the equity market on par with the banking system in terms of
financial intermediation. (Economic Survey 2003-04).
However, given the fact that India is the second largest equity market in the world in
terms of the number of listed companies, and one of the important goals of our economic
and financial reforms is to obtain the deep and liquid stock market, we cannot possibly
satisfy ourselves with the current level of market capitalization. The two most prominent
Indian stock exchanges, NSE and BSE, rank third and fifth in the world evaluated by the
trading intensity as of 2003.
The impact cost, which is another important measure of the liquidity of the market has
drastically declined from 0.15 per cent in early 2002 to just 0.1 per cent as at the end of
2003-04.
Though all these gives us the satisfaction that we are in the right direction, we should also
not forget that this is a wide spread phenomenon across all the securities listed in the
stock markets. Many listed companies even today have a negligible liquidity. For
example, as of 2003-04, the top 50 companies listed in the NSE account for 79.47 per
cent of the turnover in the cash segment and this figure is 74.53 per cent for BSE, when
the total number of companies listed as of the same period in NSE and BSE stand at 818
and 5650 respectively.
The presence of FIIs can improve the liquidity in the market to a great extent by
providing the much wanted depth across many listed securities and make it broad based.
Broad basing the market by spreading the trading volumes across the various listed
securities is a prerequisite for insulating the market from reacting heavily to the specific
happenings of a few heavy weight companies.
LEVERAGE
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Suppose a user of a forward market adopts a position worth Rs.100. No money changes
hands at the time the deal is signed. In practice, a goodfaith deposit would be needed.
Suppose the user puts up Rs.5 of collateral. Using Rs.5 of capital, a position of Rs.100 is
taken. In this case, we say there is leverage of 20 times. This example involves a
forward market. More generally, all derivatives involve leverage. Leverage makes
derivatives useful; leverage is also the source of a host of disasters, payments crises, and
systemic risk on financial
markets. Understanding and controlling leverage is equivalent to understanding and
controlling derivatives.
PROBLEM OF FORWARD MARKET
Forward markets tend to be afflicted by poor liquidity and from unreliability deriving
from counterparty risk (also called credit risk).
Why do forward markets have poor liquidity?
One basic problem of forward markets is that of too much flexibility and generality. The
forward market is like the real estate market in that any two consenting adults can form
customdesigned contracts against each other. This often makes them design terms of the
deal which are very convenient in that specific situation; this can make the contracts non-
tradeable since others might not find those specific terms useful. In addition, forward
markets are like the real estate market in that buyers and sellers find each other using
telephones. This is inefficient and timeconsuming. Every user faces the risk of not
trading at the best price available in the country. Forward markets often turn into small
clubs of dealers who earn elevated intermediation fees. This elevates the fees paid by
users, i.e. it makes the forward market illiquid from the user perspective.
Why are forward markets afflicted by counterparty risk?
A forward contract is a bilateral relationship between two people. Each requires good
behaviour on the part of the other for the contract to perform as promised. Suppose L
agrees to buy gold from S at a future date T at a (forward) price of Rs.5,000/tola. If, on
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date T, the gold spot price is at Rs.4,000/tola, then L loses Rs.1,000/tola and S gains
Rs.1,000/tola by living up to the terms of the contract.
When L buys at Rs.5,000/tola by the terms of the contract, he is paying Rs.1,000 more
than what could be obtained on the spot market at the same time. Hence, L is tempted to
declare bankruptcy and avoid performing as per the contract.
Conversely, if on date T the gold spot price is at Rs.6,000/tola, then L gains and S loses
by living up to the terms of the contract. S stands to sell gold at Rs.5,000/tola by the
terms of the contract, which is Rs.1,000/tola worse than what could be obtained by
selling into the spot market at date T. In this case, S is tempted to declare bankruptcy and
avoid performing as per the contract.
In either case, this leads to counterparty risk. When one of the two sides of the transaction
chooses to declare bankruptcy, the other suffers. Forward markets have one basic
property: the larger the time period over which the forward contract is open, the larger are
the potential price movements, and hence the larger is the counterparty risk.
How does counterparty risk affect liquidity?
A market where counterparty risk is present generally collapses into a small club of
participants, who have homogeneous credit risk, and who have formed social and cultural
methods for handling bankruptcies.
Club markets do not allow for free entry into intermediation. They support elevated
intermediation fees for club members, have fewer market participants, and result in
reduced liquidity.
Sometimes, regulators who are afraid of payments crises forcibly shut out large numbers
of participants from an OTC derivatives market. This automatically generates a club
17market, and yields a fraction of the liquidity which could come about if participation
could be enlarged.
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What is pricetime priority?
A market has pricetime priority if it gives a guarantee that every order will be matched
against the best available price in the country, and that if two orders are equal in price,
the one which came first will be matched first.
Forward markets, which involve dealers talking to each other on phone, do not have
pricetime priority. Floorbased trading with openoutcry does not have pricetime pri-
ority. Electronic exchanges with order matching, or markets with a monopoly market
maker, have pricetime priority.
On markets without pricetime priority, users suffer greater search costs, and there is a
greater risk of fraud.
What is a futures contract?
A futures contract is a forward contract which trades on an exchange.
How does the futures market solve the problems of for-ward markets?
Futures markets feature a series of innovations in how trading is organised: Futures
contracts trade at an exchange with pricetime priority. All buyers and sell-ers come to
one exchange. This reduces search costs and improves liquidity. This harnesses the gains
that are commonly obtained in going from a nontransparent club market (based on
telephones) to an anonymous, electronic exchange which is open to participation. The
anonymity of the exchange environment largely elimi-nates cartel formation.
Futures contracts are standardised all buyers or sellers are constrained to only choose
from a small list of tradeable contracts defined by the exchange. This avoids the
illiquidity that goes along with the unlimited customisation of forward contracts.
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A new credit enhancement institution, the clearing corporation, eliminates coun-terparty
risk on futures markets. The clearing corporation interposes itself into every transaction,
buying from the seller and selling to the buyer. This is called novation. This insulates
each from the credit risk of the other. In futures markets, unlike in forward markets,
increasing the time to expiration does not increase the counterparty risk.
Novation at the clearing corporation makes it possible to have safe trading between
strangers. This is what enables largescale participation into the futures market in
contrast with small clubs which trade by telephone and makes futures markets liquid.
What is cash settlement?
The forward or futures contracts discussed so far involved physical settlement. On 31
Dec 2001, the seller was supposed to come up with 100 tolas of gold and the buyer was
supposed to pay for it.
In practice, settlement involves high transactions costs. This is particularly the case for
products such as the equity index, or an interbank deposit, where effecting settlement is
extremely difficult or impossible.
In these cases, futures markets use cash settlement. Here, the terminal value of the
product is deemed to be equal to the price seen on the spot market. This is used to
determine cash transfers from the counterparties of the futures contract. The cash transfer
is treated as settlement.
Example. Suppose L has purchased 30 units of Nifty from S at a price of 1500 on 31 Dec
2000. Suppose we come to the expiration date, i.e. 31 Dec 2000, and the Nifty spot is
actually at 1600. In this case, L has made a profit of Rs.100 per Nifty and S has made a
loss of Rs.100 per Nifty. A profit/loss of Rs.100 per nifty
applied to a transaction of 30 nifties translates into a profit/loss of Rs.3,000. Hence, the
clearing corporation organises a payment of Rs.3,000 from S and a payment of Rs.3,000
to L. This is called cash settlement.
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Cash settlement was an important advance, which extended the reach of derivatives into
many products where physical settlement was unviable.
What determines the price of a futures product?
Supply and demand on the secondary market determines the futures price. On dates prior
to 31 Dec 2000, the Nifty futures expiring on 31 Dec 2000 trade at a price that purely
reflect supply and demand. There is a separate order book for each futures product which
generates its own price.
Economic arguments give us a clear idea about what the price of a futures should be. If
the secondary market prices deviate from these values, it would imply the presence of
arbitrage opportunities, which (we might expect) would be swiftly exploited. But there is
nothing innate in the market which forces the theoretical prices to come about.
Doesnt the clearing corporation adopt an enormous risk by giving out credit
guarantees to all brokerage firms?
Yes, it does.
If a brokerage firm goes bankrupt with net obligations of Rs.1 billion, the clearing
corporation has a legal obligation of Rs.1 billion. The clearing corporation is legally
obliged to either meet these obligations, or go bankrupt itself. There is no third
alternative. There is no committee that meets to decide whether the settlement fund can
be utilised; there are no escape clauses.
It is important to emphasise that when L buys from S, at a legal level, L has bought from
the clearing corporation and the clearing corporation has bought from S. Whether S lives
up to his obligations or not, the clearing corporation is the counterparty to L. There is no
escape clause which can be invoked by the clearing corporation if S defaults.
How does the clearing corporation assure it does not go bankrupt itself?
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The futures clearing corporation has to build a sophisticated risk containment system in
order to survive.
Two key elements of the risk containment system are the mark to market margin and
initial margin. These involve taking collateral from traders in such a way as to greatly
diminish the incentives for traders to default.
Electronic trading has generated a need for online, realtime risk monitoring. In India,
trading takes place swiftly and funds move through the banking system slowly. Hence the
only meaningful notion of initial margin is one that is paid upfront. This leads to the
notion of brokerage firms placing collateral, and obtaining limits upon the risk of their
position as a function of the amount of collateral with the clearing corporation.
Can we concretely sketch the operations of one futures market?
On 1 January, an exchange decides to trade three gold futures contracts with expiration
31 Jan, 28 Feb and 31 Mar respectively. The three futures contracts all trade at the same
time, with three distinct prices. Traders can buy/sell all three contracts as they please. All
through January, no settlement takes place. Positions are netted; i.e. if a person buys 100g
of 31 Jan gold and then (a few days later) sells off 100g of 31 Jan gold, his net position
drops to 0.
Trading for the January contract stops on 31 Jan. All net open positions on this contract,
as of the close of trading of 31 Jan, have to do settlement on 2 February (T+2 settlement).
A buy position (as of close of trading on 31 Jan) has to bring money on 2 Feb, and a sell
position (as of close of trading on 31 Jan) has to bring gold on 2 Feb. On 1 Feb, when
trading commences, the exchange announces the start of trading on a new contract, one
which expires on 30 Apr, thus ensuring that three contracts always trade at any one time.
Similarly, on 28 Feb, trading for the Feb contract stops. On 1 March, a new 31 May
contract is born. On 2 March, open positions of the Feb contract are settled.
Nifty options
The strike prices and expiration dates for traded options are selected by the exchange. For
example, NSE may choose to have three expiration months, and five strike prices
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(1200,1300,1400,1500,1600). There would be two types of options: put and call. This
gives a total of 30 distinct traded options (3 5 2), with 30 distinct order books and
prices.
A typical set of option prices is shown in Table 4.1. It illustrates the intruiging nature of
option prices.
When Nifty is at 1500, the right to buy Nifty at 1600 one month away is worth little
(Rs.13). The buyer of this option puts down Rs.13 when the option is purchased, and this
fee is nonrefundable. If Nifty turns out to be above 1600 after a month, this option will
prove to be valuable. If Nifty proves to be at 1602 after a month, the option will pay Rs.2.
Conversely when Nifty is at 1500, the right to sell Nifty at 1400 one month away isnt
worth much (Rs.8): this is the insurance premium for protecting yourself against a fall
in Nifty of worse than a hundred points.
However, when we increase the time to expiration of the option, there is a greater chance
that prices can move around, and these same options become worth more: e.g. the 25
right to sell Nifty at 1600 is worth Rs.25 when we consider a threemonth horizon (i.e.
insurance against a hundredpoint drop on a threemonth horizon).
Options v/s Futures
Options are different from futures in several interesting senses.
At a practical level, the option buyer faces an interesting situation. He pays for the option
in full at the time it is purchased. After this, he only has an upside. There is no possibility
of the options position generating any further losses to him (other than the funds already
paid for the option). This is different from a futures: which is free to enter into, but can
generate very large losses. This characteristic makes options attractive to many
occasional market participants, who cannot put in the time to closely monitor their futures
positions.
Buying put options is buying insurance. To buy a put option on Nifty is to buy insurance
which reimburses the full extent to which Nifty drops below the strike price of the put
option. This is attractive to many people, and to mutual funds creating guaranteed return
products. The Nifty index fund industry will find it very useful to make a bundle of a
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Nifty index fund and a Nifty put option to create a new kind of a Nifty index fund, which
gives the investor protection against extreme drops in Nifty.
Selling put options is selling insurance, so anyone who feels like earning revenues by
selling insurance can set himself up to do so on the index options market.
More generally, options offer nonlinear payoffs whereas futures only have linear
payoffs. By combining futures and options, a wide variety of innovative and useful
payoff structures can be created.
In general, both futures and options trade on all underlyings abroad. Indeed, the
international practice is to launch futures and options on a new underlying on the same
day.
Factors that determines the price of an option
Supply and demand on the secondary market drives the option price. On dates prior to 31
Dec 2000, the call option on Nifty expiring on 31 Dec 2000 with a strike of 1500 will
trade at a price that purely reflects supply and demand. There is a separate order book for
each option which generates its own price.
The values shown in Table 4.1 are derived from a theoretical model. If the secondary
market prices deviate from these values, it would imply the presence of arbitrage
opportunities, which (we might expect) would be swiftly exploited. But there is nothing
innate in the market which forces the prices in the table to come about.
Position of derivative in equity market
As mentioned in Question 3.9, trading on the spot market for equity has actually
always been a futures market with weekly or fortnightly settlement. These futures
markets feature the risks and difficulties of futures markets, without the gains in price
discovery and hedging services that come with a separation of the spot market from the
futures market.
Indias primary market has experience with derivatives of two kinds: convertible bonds
and warrants (a slight variant of call options). Since these warrants are listed and traded,
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options markets of a limited sort already exist. However, the trading on these instruments
is very limited.
A variety of interesting derivatives markets exist in the informal sector. These markets
trade contracts like bhav-bhav, teji-mandi, etc. For example, the bhav-bhav is a bundle of
one in-the-money call option and one in-the-money put option. These informal markets
stand outside the mainstream institutions of Indias financial system and enjoy limited
participation.
In 1995, NSE asked SEBI whether it could trade index futures. In 2000, SEBI gave
permissions to NSE and BSE to trade index futures. In addition, futures and options on
Nifty will also trade at the Singapore Monetary Exchange (SIMEX) from endAugust
2000.
Commodity derivatives
India produces a range of commodities that enjoy a high global rank in production. The
weighted rank of India in the global supply function pertinent to these commodities is
between two and three. The impact of the commodity sector on the total economy is
considerable.
A reforms program towards building commodity futures exchanges is being effected
under the aegis of the Forward Markets Commission (FMC), which is constituted under
the Ministry of Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution.
Futures contracts in pepper, turmeric, gur (jaggery), hessian (jute fabric), jute sacking,
castor seed, potato, coffee, cotton, and soybean and its derivatives are traded in 18
commodity exchanges located in various parts of the country. Futures trading in other
edible oils, oilseeds and oil cakes have been permitted. Trading in futures in the new
commodities, especially in edible oils, is expected to commence in the near future. The
sugar industry is exploring the merits of trading sugar futures contracts.
The policy initiatives and the modernisation programme include extensive training,
structuring a reliable clearinghouse, establishment of a system of warehouse receipts, and
the thrust towards the establishment of a national commodity exchange. The Government
of India has constituted a committee to explore and evaluate issues pertinent to the
establishment and funding of the proposed national commodity exchange for the
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nationwide trading of commodity futures contracts, and the other institutions and
institutional processes such as warehousing and clearinghouses.
With commodity futures, delivery is best effected using warehouse receipts (which are
like dematerialised securities). Warehousing functions have enabled viable exchanges to
augment their strengths in contract design and trading. The viability of the national
commodity exchange is predicated on the reliability of the warehousing functions. The
programme for establishing a system of warehouse receipts is in progress. The Coffee
Futures Exchange India (COFEI) has operated a system of warehouse receipts since
1998.
How do futures trade?
In the cash market, the basic dynamic is that the issuer puts out paper, and people trade
this paper. In contrast, with futures (as with all derivatives), there is no issuer, and hence,
there is no fixed issue size. The net supply of all derivatives contracts is 0. For each
buyer, there is an equal and opposite seller. A contract is born when a buyer and a seller
meet on the market.
The total number of contracts that exist at a point is called open interest.
How would a seller deliver a market index?
On futures markets, open positions as of the expiration date are normally supposed to
turn into delivery by the seller and payment by the buyer.
It is not feasible to deliver the market index. Hence open positions are squared off in cash
on the expiration date, with respect to the spot Nifty. Specifically, on the expiration date,
the last mark to market margin is calculated with respect to the spot Nifty instead of the
futures price.
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What products will be traded on NSEs market?
Three Nifty futures contracts will trade at any point in time, expiring in three near
months. The expiration date of each contract will be the last thursday of the month. For
example, in January 1996 we will see three tradeable objects at the same time: a Nifty
futures expiring on 25 January, a Nifty futures expiring on 29 February, and a Nifty
futures expiring on 28 March.
The three futures trade completely independently of each other. Each has a distinct price
and a distinct limit order book.
Hence, once this market trades, there would be four distinct prices that can be ob-served:
the Nifty spot, and three Nifty futures prices.
Market lot
The market lot is 200 nifties. A user will be able to buy 200 or 400 nifties, but not 300
nifties. If Nifty is at 1500, the smallest transaction will have a notional value of
Rs.300,000.
What kind of margins do we expect to see
The initial (upfront) margin on trading Nifty is likely to be around 7% to 8%. Thus, a
position of Rs.300,000 (around 200 nifties) will require upfront collateral of Rs.21,000
to Rs.24,000.
Nifty futures at SIMEX will probably involve a somewhat lower initial margin as
compared with Nifty futures at NSE. Since the BSE Sensex is more volatile than Nifty, a
higher initial margin will be required for trading it.
The daily marktomarket margin will be similar to that presently seen on the cash
market, with two key differences: As is presently the case, mark-to-market losses will
have to be paid in by the trader to NSCC. However, mark-to-market profits will be paid
out to traders by NSCC this is not presently done on the cash market.
Hedged futures positions will attract lower margin if a person has purchased 200
October nifties and sold 200 November nifties, he will attract much less than 7 8%
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margin. In the present cash market, all positions attract 15% initial (upfront) margin from
NSCC, regardless of the extent to which they are hedged.
Users of index futures
As with all derivatives, there are (a) speculators, (b) hedgers and (c) arbitrageurs.
Speculators would make forecasts about movements in Nifty or movements in futures
prices. Hedgers would take buy or sell positions on Nifty futures in offsetting equity
exposure that they have, which they consider undesirable. Arbitrageurs lend or borrow
money from the market, depending on whether rates of return are attractive.
What kind of liquidity is expected on index derivatives markets?
Impact cost on index derivatives markets is likely to be much smaller than that seen on
the spot index. One thumb rule which is commonly used internationally is that trans-
actions costs on trading index futures are around onetenth the cost of trading the spot
index. When this level of liquidity is attained, we will be able to trade Rs.1 million of
Nifty futures in a market impact cost of 0.01%. High liquidity is the essential appeal of
index derivatives. If trading on the spot market were cheap, then many portfolio
modifications would get done there itself. However, because transactions costs on the
cash market are high, using derivatives is an appealing alternative.
What determines the fair price of a derivative?
The fair price of a derivative is the price at which profitable arbitrage is infeasible. In this
sense, arbitrage (and arbitrage alone) determines the fair price of a derivative: this is the
price at which there are no profitable arbitrage opportunities.
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What determines the fair price of an index futures product?
The pricing of index futures depends upon the spot index, the cost of carry, and expected
dividends. For simplicity, suppose no dividends are expected, suppose the spot Nifty is at
1000 and suppose the onemonth interest rate is 1.5%. Then the fair price of an index
futures contract that expires in a month is 1015.
What is basis?
The difference between the spot and the futures price is called the basis. When a Nifty
futures trades at 1015 and the spot Nifty is at 1000, the basis is said to be Rs.15 or
1.5%.
What is basis risk?
Basis risk is the risk that users of the futures market suffer, owing to unwanted
fluctuations of the basis. In the ideal futures market, the basis should reflect interest rates,
and interest rates alone. In reality, the basis fluctuates within a band. These fluctuations
reduce the usefulness of the futures market for hedgers and speculators.
What happens if the futures are trading at Rs.1025 instead of Rs.1015?
This is an error in the futures price of Rs.10. An arbitrageur can, in principle, capture the
mispricing of Rs.10 using a series of transactions. He would (a) buy the spot Nifty, (b)
sell the futures, and (c) hold till expiration. This strategy is equivalent to risklessly
lending money to the market at 2.5% per month. As long as a person can borrow at
1.5%/month, he would be turning a profit of 1% per month by doing this arbitrage,
without bearing any risk.
What happens if the futures are trading at Rs.1005 instead of Rs.1015?
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This is an error in the futures price of Rs.10. An arbitrageur can, in principle, capture the
mispricing of Rs.10 using a series of transactions. He would (a) sell the spot Nifty, (b)
buy the futures, and (c) hold till expiration. This is equivalent to borrowing money from
the market, using (Nifty) shares as collateral, at 0.5% per month. As long as a person can
lend at 1.5%/month, he would be turning a profit of 1% per month by doing this
arbitrage, without bearing any risk.
Are these pricing errors really captured by arbitrageurs?
In practice, arbitrageurs will suffer transactions costs in doing Nifty program trades. The
arbitrageur suffers one market impact cost in entering into a position on the Nifty spot,
and another market impact cost when exiting. As a thumb rule, transactions of a million
rupees suffer a oneway market impact cost of 0.1%, so the arbitrageur suffers a cost of
0.2% or so on the roundtrip. Hence, the actual return is lower than the apparent return by
a factor of 0.2 percentage points or so.
What kinds of arbitrage opportunities will be found in this fashion?
The international experience is that in the first six months of a new index futures market,
there are greater arbitrage opportunities that lie unexploited for relatively longer. After
that, the increasing size and sophistication of the arbitrageurs ensures that arbitrage
opportunities vanish very quickly. However, the international experience is that the
glaring arbitrage opportunities only go away when extremely large amounts of capital are
deployed into index arbitrage.
What kinds of interestrates are likely to show up on the index futures market will
they be like badla financing rates?
Arbitrage in the index futures market involves having the clearing corporation (NSCC) as
the legal counterparty on both legs of the transaction. Hence the credit risk involved here
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will be equal to the credit risk of NSCC. This is in contrast with the risks of badla
financing.
You say buying Nifty. How do you buy a market index?
A market index is just a portfolio of all the stocks in the index, where the weightage
given to each stock is proportional to its market capitalisation. Hence buying Nifty is
equivalent to buying all 50 stocks, in their correct proportions. To take one example,
suppose Reliance has a 7.14% weight in Nifty, suppose the price of Reliance is Rs.108
and we are buying Rs.1 million of Nifty. This means that we need to buy 661 shares of
Reliance.
Wont that be a lot of timeconsuming typing, placing 50 orders by hand?
These orders should not be placed by hand. In the time that it would take to place 50
orders, market prices would move, generating execution risk. A rapid placement of a
batch of orders is called program trading. NSEs NEAT software (which is used for
trading on the cash market) supports this capability. However, even though NSE is a fully
electronic market, the time taken in doing program trades is quite high (around two to
three minutes to do a Nifty program trade). This compares poorly against stock
exchanges elsewhere in the world.
Isnt program trading dangerous or somehow unhealthy?
Program trading replaces the tedium, errors, and delays of placing 50 orders by hand. If
program trading didnt exist, these orders would be placed manually. Its hard to see how
this automation can be dangerous.
What makes a good stock market index for use in an index futures and index
options market?
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Several issues play a role in terms of the choice of index. Diversification A stock market
index should be well-diversified, thus ensuring that hedgers or speculators are not
vulnerable to individual company- or industry-risk. This di-versification is reflected in
the Sharpe's Ratio of the index.
Liquidity of the index The index should be easy to trade on the cash market. This is partly
related to the choice of stocks in the index. High liquidity of index compo-nents implies
that the information in the index is less noisy.
Liquidity of the market Index traders have a strong incentive to trade on the market
which supplies the prices used in index calculations. This market should feature high
liquidity and be well designed in the sense of supplying operational conve-niences suited
to the needs of index traders. Operational issues The index should be regularly
maintained, with a steady evolution of securities in the index to keep pace with changes
in the economy. The calculations involved in the index should be accurate and reliable.
When a stock trades at mul-tiple venues, index computation should be done using prices
from the most liquid market.
How do we compare Nifty and the BSE Sensex from this perspective?
Nifty has a higher Sharpe's ratio. Nifty is a more liquid index. Nifty is calculated using
prices from the most liquid market (NSE). NSE has designed features of the trading
system to suit the needs of index traders. Nifty is better maintained. Nifty is used by three
index funds while the BSE Sensex is used by one.
Why does liquidity matter for a market index?
At one level a market index is used as a pure economic time-series. Liquidity affects this
application via the problem of non-trading. If some securities in an index fail to trade
today, then the level of the market index obtained reflects the valuation of the
macroecon-omy today (via securities which traded today), but is contaminated with the
valuation of the macroeconomy yesterday (via securities which traded yesterday). This is
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the problem of stale prices. By this reasoning, securities with a high trading intensity are
best-suited for inclusion into a market index.
As we go closer to applications of market indexes in the indexation industry (such as
index funds, or sector-level active management, or index derivatives), the market index is
not just an economic time-series, but a portfolio which is traded. The key difficulty faced
here is again liquidity, or the transactions costs faced in buying or selling the entire index
as a portfolio.
How can Nifty futures be used for interest rate trading?
The basis between the spot Nifty and the 1 month Nifty futures reflects the interest rate
over the coming month. If interest rates go up, the basis will widen. A buy position on the
futures and a sell on the spot Nifty stands to gain if interest rates go up, while being
immune to movements in Nifty. Similar positions can be used against the twomonth and
threemonth futures to take views on other spot interest rates on the yield curve. Similar
strategies can be applied for trading in forward interest rates, using the basis between the
onemonth and twomonth futures, the onemonth and threemonth futures, etc.
When does hedging go wrong?
Hedgers fear basis risk. Basis risk is about Nifty futures prices moving in a way which is
not linked to the Nifty spot.
An unhedged position suffers from price risk; the hedged position suffers from basis risk.
Of course, basis risk is generally much smaller than price risk, so that it is better to hedge
than not to hedge. However basis risk does detract from the usefulness of hedging using
derivatives.
What influences basis risk?
A well designed index, and a welldesigned cash market for equities, serves to minimise
basis risk. See Question 10.1.
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What do we know about Nifty and the BSE Sensex in their usefulness on hedging?
Nifty has higher hedging effectiveness for typical portfolios of all sizes. Nifty also
requires lower initial margin (since it is less volatile) and is likely to enjoy lower basis
risk (owing to the ease of arbitrage).
How do I lend money into the futures market?
Buy a million rupees of Nifty on the spot market. Pay for them, and take delivery.
When you make the payment, you are giving a loan.
Simultaneously, sell off a million rupees of Nifty futures.
Hold these positions till the futures expiration date.
On the futures expiration date, sell off the Nifty shares on the spot market. When you
get paid for these, you are getting your loan repaid.
When is this attractive?
This is worth doing when the interest rate obtained by lending into the futures market is
higher than that which can be obtained through alternative riskless lending avenues.
How do I borrow money from the futures market, using shares as collateral?
Sell a million rupees of Nifty on the spot market. Make delivery, and get paid. This is
your borrowed funds.
Simultaneously, buy a million rupees of Nifty futures.
Hold these positions till the futures expiration date.
On the futures expiration date, buy back the Nifty shares on the spot market. When you
pay for them, you are repaying your loan.
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When is this attractive?
This is worth doing when the interest rate obtained by borrowing from the futures market
is lower than that which can be obtained through alternative fully collateralised
borrowing avenues.
Is there a compact thumbrule through which I can visualise the interest rates
actually available in lending to the index futures market?
Suppose Nifty is at 1500 and a futures product which expires within 30 days is trading at
1520. At first, this looks like a return of Rs.20 on a base of Rs.1500 for a onemonth
holding period. However, you should subtract out the transactions costs that you will
suffer on doing two trades on the Nifty spot. Suppose we assume a transaction size of
Rs.1 million. In this case, its safe to assume transactions costs of roughly 0.1% (or
Rs.1.5) each.
Hence, you will actually get only 20 - 1.5 - 1.5 or Rs.17 on a base of Rs.1500. This is a
return of 1.13% for a onemonth holding period, or 14.48% annualised. Thinking in
terms of the actual transaction, you would lend Rs.1,000,000 into the market, and get
back Rs.1,011,333 after a month.
This thumbrule ignores the dividends obtained on the shares you hold for the month.
Dividend payments in India are highly bunched towards the yearend. At other times of
the year, its safe to ignore dividends in a thumbrule.
Exactly what is the timeperiod for which we calculate the interest cost?
Suppose we are on 12 June 2000 (a Monday) and we have purchased the spot, and sold
the near futures (which expires on 29 June 2000). We will only need to put up funds on
Tuesday, 20 June 2000. The shares are sold on the spot market on 29 June 2000
(Thursday). These turn into funds on 11 July 2000 (Tuesday). Hence, the overall period
for which funds are invested is from 20 June to 11 July, i.e. a holding period of 22 days.
Hence, the cost of carry should be applied for a 22 day holding period.
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Can it happen that a Nifty future is cheaper than the Nifty spot?
Suppose the Nifty spot is the same as the price of the three month futures, i.e. that the
basis is zero. This means that the futures market is willing to give you a loan (against a
Nifty portfolio as collateral) for a threemonth period at an interest rate of zero.
If the Nifty futures are cheaper than the Nifty spot, it means that the futures market
is willing to pay you if you borrow money.
Many people in India would be very happy to borrow (against a Nifty portfolio as
collateral) at a zero or negative interest rate. When they step into futures market to do so,
they will buy the futures and sell the spot. That will push futures prices away from these
weird states.
Nothing forbids these weird states (negative or zero basis). Its just that they are
extremely attractive arbitrage opportunities and are unlikely to lie around for long.
These transactions look exactly like a stock repo to me.
Index arbitrage is indeed an index repo, with one key difference. Repos normally
involve counterparty risk. In index arbitrage, you face nearzero risk with NSCC as the
counterparty.
Why these borrowing/lending activities are called arbitrage?
They involve a sequence of trades on the spot and on the index futures market. Yet, they
are completely riskless. The trader is simultaneously buying at the present and selling off
in the future, or vice versa. Regardless of what happens to Nifty, the returns on arbitrage
are the same. Since there is no risk involved, it is called arbitrage.
Are these transactions really riskless?
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These transactions are riskless insofar as the fluctuations of Nifty are concerned: no
matter whether Nifty goes up or down, they will yield the identical and predictable rate of
return. The rate of return you calculate at the outset is exactly what will come out at the
end.
However, they involve the credit risk of the clearing corporation. When you do arbitrage
on NSE, you are exposed to the risk that the National Securities Clearing Corporation
(NSCC) which is the legal counterparty to all your trades might be unable to meet its
obligations.
The required rate of return in lending to NSCC is the interest rate from the Government
of India yield curve, with a credit risk premium for NSCC added into it. If the 90day
interest rate on the GOI yield curve is 7%, and if you believe that NSCC requires a credit
risk premium of one percentage point, then the threemonth futures should involve an
interest rate of 8%.
Whats the probability that NSCC will default?
Internationally, clearing corporations calibrate their risk containment system so that
failures are expected to take place roughly once or twice in each fifty years.
The track record of futures clearing corporations internationally is impressive. In the 20th
century, we have seen just a handful of failures (e.g. Hong Kong in 1987).
NSCC has a short track record: it has been doing novation on the equity spot market
(which is actually a futures market) from 1996 onwards. In these five years, the equity
market has experienced high volatility, a high incidence of bankruptcies by NSE
brokerage firms, payments problems on other exchanges, etc. NSCC has successfully
shouldered the task of doing novation on Indias largest financial market (NSE). While
this suggests that NSCC may have fairly sound risk containment systems, we should be
cautious since it only has a track record of five years of doing novation.
What do we know about the risks of BSEs clearinghouse?
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BSE has no experience with novation. Today, equity trading at BSE takes place without
novation. BSE has experienced payments problems fairly recently.
What do we know about Nifty and the BSE Sensex on the question of arbitrage?
The market impact cost in trading the BSE Sensex is higher, for two reasons: index
construction and trading venue. Even if BSE Sensex trades were done on NSE, the
impact cost faced in trading the BSE Sensex is higher than that of Nifty. In addition,
arbitrageurs working on the BSE Sensex would be forced to trade at the less liquid
market, the BSE.
The BSE lacks a credit enhancement institution of the credibility of NSCC.
These problems imply that arbitrageurs working on the BSE Sensex will demand a higher
credit risk premium, and require larger pricing errors in order to compensate for the
larger transactions costs. Hence, the BSE Sensex futures are expected to show lower
market efficiency and greater basis risk.
How does one speculate using index futures?
There are several kinds of speculation that are possible forecasting movements of Nifty,
forecasting movements in Nifty futures prices, and forecasting interest rates.
What is involved in forecasting Nifty?
Nifty is a welldiversified portfolio of companies that make up 54% of the market
capitalisation of India. The diversification inside Nifty serves to cancel out influences
of individual companies or industries.
Hence Nifty, as a whole, reflects the overall prospects of Indias corporate sector and
Indias economy. Nifty moves with events that impact Indias economy. These include
politics, macroeconomic policy announcements, interest rates, money supply and
budgets, shocks from overseas, etc. Thomas & Shah (1999) offer some timeseries
econometrics applied to Nifty.
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RECOMMENDATIONS
On the basis of the study, as performance and achievements made by the responsibilities
assigned to me during my summer training tenure, I recommended the higher authorities
the following for their kind consideration:
As Religare has started to open the demate A/C, I have given the advice to the
authorities that the old clients normal trading & demat a/c should be converted
into the demate A/C. From this advice company can save the local conveyance
cost which is incurred to receive the delivery from the clients and also through
this settlements process will become easier.
In the company software i.e., ODIN the trading dealer is not able to see the scrip
vise client position and this is creating a lot of problems due to the reason that
whenever scrip prices increase or decreases the dealer want to buy or sell the
scripts of the clients for this dealer has to see the client wise position & not the
scrip wise position this will result in the lost of the precious time. On this I
recommended the systems dept to include the feature to see the scritp wise
position of the clients also.
The clearing and the settlement of the northern region is done on the centralized
basis & this is creating the a lot of problems i.e., to track the all the branches on
the telephonic line, this will result in delay in the settlement process, to short out
the queries of the clients branches has to call to the Delhi main branch where all
the settlement of the northern region are carried out,i.e., branches are dependent
on the H..O
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CONCLUSION
Investing is every bodys need. Every one wants to invest their savings for uncertain
future ahead. These hard earn savings should be properly and smartly invested so that the
principal is safe, returns are maximized and liquidity is available. With the globalization
of Indian financial market lot of avenues of investment has opened up. With the increase
in number of options now available, complexity too has increased. Proper knowledge can
help an investor to get maximum possible returns while minimizing his risk.
The project covers the various investment avenues provided by Religare and seeks to
analyze them with respect to return they generate and risk they have. The project cover
detailed information about making a investment in different investment. The key focus of
the project is to have better insight into investment in equities market and related
instrument like derivatives and portfolio management services (PMS) .The project has
also covered information about the investment options in debt market which have petty
low risk and assured but low returns.
The project in first stage has been able to cover the indepth study of direct investment in
equities market ie investment through holding the ownership of share of different
companies. The details regarding investment in fixed income options have also been
provided.
The next stage of project has covered the study of Derivatives and commodity. That has
been followed by the analysis of all of these options in different economic conditions in
terms of return they generate and degree of risk they have. Here study has been restricted
to only those investment options which are offered at Religare.
After studding the different investment avenues provided by the Religare I conclude that:
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For the risk awesser investors insurance products are the safest mode of the
earnings
For medium or less risk takers Mutual fund is the best option for investment as
there is the less risk in the mutual fund due to the reason that the portfolio is
managed by the professionals.
And for the higher risk taker in my view derivative segment is the best segment
for the investment. However it requires a lot of attention and market updation and
the good analytical review.
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ORGANISATIONAL LEARNINGS
It is very important in an organization to have clarity of roles and unity of command. I
observed that this feature was not focused upon in branch after an organizational
restructuring. Employee at the branch was not very clear about the reporting mechanisms,
the flow of command and formal authority. This had an negative effect on employee
moral irrespective of the leadership. Impact on entry level employee was the most, they
ended up being frustrated because unclear authority and command.
Generally organizations focus more on either marketing or finance in the organization
and make the Endeavour to make these functions as efficient as possible. But in the
process they dont have much focus on operations. I find operation at kotak securities
inefficient and wanting. They have serious complication on functioning and loss of
business to competitors. I believe that this function should also be provided be given
more attention and should be equipped with not only better technology but also more
efficient work force.
During my summers at Religare Securities, I was fortunate enough to experience two
different kind of leadership style. Not commenting on any one it , I just want to say that
they had major impact on the way the branch function, level of satisfaction of
employees , cost cutting, and most important of all revenue generated. So leadership is
one area where top management should be very careful and focused as they form
important part of any organizational success.
Technology plays a major role in organizational functioning.
Although it is an established fact that technology helps in smooth functioning of
organization. But I observed it myself at kotak securities. The BOS (back office support)
system is one of the major strength of kotak securities, it is one tool which keeps kotak
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ahead of its competitors by helping in better query handing , trouble shooting and having
a more satisfied customer.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOOKS:
Bhalla .V.K, Investment Management: Security Analysis & Portfolio
Management, S.Chand publication, 2007, New Delhi. Depository & Index Pages
reffered from 102 -105 and 183-206.
NCFM, Security Market (Basic Module), 2007. Primary Market
Portfolio Management 2007. Role of AMC & Trustee in the Security market.
MAGAZINE & JOURNAL/ NEWSPAPER:
Kumar Dhirendra, ULIP Key Feature, Business world, 24 June, 2007, pages
reffered from 22-54.
Rao Ramesh, Portfolio Management Services, Mar2007, Pages reffered from 18-
34.
Mittal Ashok, Derivative Trading, Financial Express Annual magazine 2006,
pages reffered from 46-88.
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INTERNET
www.nseindia.com, Clearing & Settlement Of Equity & portfolio
June, 2007.
www.debtonnetindia.com, Retail debt market,
June, 2007.
www.moneycontrol.com, Basics, Future & Option, July, 2007.
www.Religare.in
www.yahoosearch.com
www.wikipedia.com
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WORD OF THANKS
I take the opportunity to pay hearty regards to Dr. D. K. Garg (chairman) and Mr. M. K.
Verma (dean) for lending me their kind support for completion of my project.
I thank all those who directly or indirectly supported me morally, financially and
through providing knowledge by which I could complete my research.
Last but not the least I am thankful to the management of Religare securities ltd.
And my guide Mr. Vipul Gupta (Sr. Relationship Manager) his guidance was a milestone
in completion of my project.
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