NETHERLANDS CLIMATE ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN HUONG RIVER BASIN AND ADAPTATION IN ITS COASTAL DISTRICT PHU VANG

Project Work Plan

-Edited summary-

Ha Noi - December 2005

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Title of Program Title of Project Project Number Country Supervising Agency Implementing Agency

Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme (NCAP), follow up of NCCSAP Climate Change Impacts in Huong River Basin and Adaptation in its Coastal District Phu Vang Viet Nam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) of Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) International Cooperation Department, Vietnam Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Water Resource Management, MONRE, Department of Natural Resources and Environment Thua Thien Hue (TTH), Peoples Committee Netherlands Climate Assistance Program TT Hue Province Peoples Committee Phu Vang District Peoples Committee TT Hue Department of Natural Resources and Environment Huong River Management Board Department of Agriculture and Rural Development Department of Science, Technology Department of Fishery Hydrometservice of Central Vietnam Department of Transportation Department of Planning and Investment TT Hue Tourism Department Viet Nam Red Cross and its TT Hue Branch Hue University

Collaborating Agencies

Netherlands counterpart Participating agencies

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1. General
The development objective of the project is to strengthen the capacity and preparedness of the sectors, organizations and Vietnamese people to adapt and respond to the climate change in order to foresee and minimize its negative impacts on communities, their poverty and livelihoods, to reduce losses and efficiently recover from negative effects of climate change related disasters and phenomena, and to take advantage of their possible positive impacts. This project is one of the important projects of the on-going Netherlands Climate Assistance Program (NCAP), formerly called Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Program (NCCSAP), in 15 developing countries. The Vietnam project is a pilot study of climate change impacts on the natural environment, including water systems and flows, of the most vulnerable people and adaptation policies and measures in Viet Nam. The project regards the Huong River Basin in Thua Thien Hue Province in general and its lagoon population in particular. Future impacts of climate change on the water system and flows of the entire river basin will be projected in an integrated way. The social-economic focus is on the coastal district of Phu Vang in order to involve vulnerable stakeholders in preparing detailed measures to adapt to the projected climate change impacts in their local area. The project will be developed and implemented by the Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology (IMH) in Ha Noi, and the Department of Natural Resources and Environment in Hue (DONRE). The first phase of the project consists of the following major activities: 1. Collect and analyze data on meteo-hydrological factors and natural conditions in the study area. 2. Assess the impacts of climate change on water resources by conducting water and climate change modeling for the Huong River Basin with the help of MIKE 11 and MIKE Basin (or other suitable and available) software. 3. Collect and analyze data on administrative and socio-economic circumstances of the coastal zone of the river basin Phu Vang district. 4. Collect and analyze data on livelihoods and vulnerability to climate change and disasters of the poorest people in Phu Vang district. 5. Develop the stakeholder action plan (SAP) for one commune in Phu Vang district. 6. Carry out a large stakeholder meeting in a coastal commune to introduce the project to the local community and authority. 7. Carry out semi-structured interviews with different categories of local and external stakeholders.

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8. Organize a decision making (or technical) workshop with key-stakeholders in one commune in Phu Vang district using scenarios structuring tool and decision making support software. 9. Guide key-stakeholders in their communication with the social environment. 10. Carry out a large stakeholder meeting in the commune to conclude the projects first phase. 11. Summarize and finalize the first phase works and prepare the second phase. Below the background of the project is described.

2. Viet Nam and climate change impacts

Viet Nam is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Most of the disasters in Viet Nam concerning the weather conditions and climate change. These frequency and intensity depend on season. Annually, storm, flood, drought, and other disasters cause heavy casualty of the human, damages of the property and infrastructure. Climate change impacts Climate change and its direct impacts in Vietnam have predicted as follows: According to the third assessment reports of International Panel on Climate Change, the temperature in this century will increase from 1.4 5.8oC, the average sea level globally will increase from 9-88 cm. This will lead to more harsh natural phenomena such as flood and droughts. The temperature is estimated to increase 2,5oC to year 2070. In Vietnam inland temperature (focus mainly on the highlands) will increase 2,5oC, meanwhile the temperature of coastal area can increase 1,5oC. Annual average temperature and the absolute minimum temperature would also increase; the number of days with temperature higher than 25oC will increase too. This will affect the ecosystem and farming season. The North and the South areas are affected by the Southwest monsoon but the seasonal rainfall amount decreases in July and August and increases in September, October and November. In the Centre, rainfall would increase in rainy season, about 19% in 2070. Due to increasing temperature, evapo-transpiration rate will also increase. Because rainfall would concentrate in rainy season, rainfall in dry season will decrease by 2070 in the Central Viet Nam, drought would occur more frequently. Sea level in Viet Nam has increased 5cm within the past 30 years. Sea level would rise 9cm in 2010, 33 cm in 2050, 45 cm in 2070 and 1 meter in 2100. Over the past years, the typhoons landed to Viet Nam in August in the North, in October in the Centre and in November in the South. But the typhoons season is observed to occur later and southwardly in recent years. Climate change would lead to increasing the sea surface temperature in higher latitude region of Pacific Ocean. It will lead to more typhoons occurring in the northwest Pacific Ocean. They will have more effect to Viet Nam. In the next decades, sea surface temperature is predicted warmer, which is maintaining wind speed in typhoon for along time. So, the typhoon intensity would be stronger, especially in EL NINO phenomenon year.

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Studies showed that climate change will impose not only on the change in climatic variability, but also the frequency and intensity of extreme events that definitely will harm the long-term sustainable development of the country.

3. Adaptation to climate change impacts

The Vietnamese people have a thousand year of long tradition of confronting and fighting natural disasters. But identifying adaptation options to long-term human-induced climate change is new concept. Despite its priority to achieve accelerated economic growth, the Government acknowledges that controlling and reducing the consequences of disasters are also key priorities. It therefore has developed an action plan for disaster mitigation as well as the Vietnams National Agenda 21. This project will also contribute to the objective of this program. Addressing both the direct vulnerability of livelihoods and the environmental needs in the basin in an integrated management plan, the project will allow the local Authorities to move from disaster mitigation towards sustainable resource use and conservation. It will lead to sustainable water resource management, reducing vulnerability and improve the livelihoods and quality of nature. A number of other projects have been initiated as well. "Vietnam Coastal Zone Vulnerability Assessment" -- This project, funded by the Government of the Netherlands and executed by a Vietnamese project team from Marine Hydro-meteorological Centre of Hydrometeorological Service working closely together with a European team comprised of Dutch and Polish experts in coastal zone management. The objective was to assess the vulnerability of the entire coastal zone of Vietnam to the impacts of accelerated sea level due to climate change and outlined the first steps towards integrated Coastal Zone Management in Vietnam. Pilot studies at three sites - Nam Ha, Hue and Vung Tau - were included to provide insight into present coastal management problems. "Climate Change in Asia: Vietnam" - A Regional Study on Global Environment Issue funded by ADB and implemented by the Ministry of Water Resources and Hydro-meteorological Service of Vietnam. The project started in 1992, and a report was published by ADB in July 1994. Its scope includes GHG emission inventory based on the 1990 data and provided mitigation options for energy and industrial, building, transportation, agricultural, forestry and land use sectors. In addition, it also included the socio-economic impact study on the Red River Delta and Mekong River Delta, and assessed the impacts on agriculture, monsoon and water resources, coastal zone, forestry, human health, energy system, transport and infrastructure. Policy options to cope with climate change for agriculture, water resources, coastal protection, forestry, human health and natural disasters were discussed. "The potential socio-economic effects of climate change on Vietnam" - This UNEP-funded project aimed to consider the effects of present-day climate variability on the natural environment and economy of Vietnam, and to evaluate the implications of possible future climate changes that might result from the GHG emission. It consisted of research activities focusing on the assessment of potential impacts of climate variability in Vietnam on agriculture, human health, energy production and use, mangrove forests and coastal fisheries. "Socio-economic and physical approaches to analyzing climate change impacts in Vietnam" funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council and implemented by the Centre of Environment Research, Education and Development (CERED), the Hanoi University and the Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global
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Environment and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. UK. This 24 month research project started in April 1996. It is an interdisciplinary study of socio-economic vulnerability to climate change impacts in the coastal zone of the Red River delta of Viet Nam. The ultimate goal is to develop an effective approach for policy development regarding for adaptation relevant to both the case study site and more generally to vulnerable groups and regions. "Capacity building for adaptation to climate change in Central Vietnam" funded by CIDA Canada (2002-2005) with the objective to strengthen capacity to plan and implement community-based anticipatory adaptation strategies through disasters preparedness and integration of risk reduction and mitigation into local development planning. "Preparedness for disasters related to climate change" supported by the Netherlands Red Cross and implemented by The Vietnam Red Cross Society. The objective of the project is to strengthen the most vulnerable people communities in the disaster-prone areas to climate change and disasters to response and adapt to these disasters.

4. Viet Nam and climate change mitigation

Viet Nam signed the UNFCCC in June 1992 and ratified it on 16 November 1994. In November 1998 the Government of Viet Nam signed the Kyoto Protocol and ratified it in September 2002. The Hydrometeorological Service (HMS), nowadays the newly-formed Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) has been designated by the Government as the National Authority for the focal point for country activities relating to implementing of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. Since signing the Convention, Viet Nam has carried out a large number of studies and other activities relevant to the national response to climate change issues: (a) UNDP/UNITAR/GEF "CC: TRAIN (Phase 1)" - Vietnam is one of the three participating countries in this project. It ran from June 1994 to June 1996. The project was implemented by the HMS in cooperation with relevant ministries and government agencies. Its objective was to assist the countries in formulating climate change policy for the implementation of the UNFCCC. A number of national programs for implementing the UNFCCC have been identified, while actions needed and measures have been outlined. (b) "Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy" (ALGAS) Project - Vietnam is one of the 12 participating countries in this UNDP/GEF/ADB project, which started in 1995. It aims to enhance and improve the national capacity of the participating countries in conducting GHG Inventory, assessing mitigation options, and developing the least-cost GHG abatement strategy and action plan. A GHG inventory based on the IPCC Guidelines for the year 1993 has been completed. However, this inventory was based on available statistical data and has not been verified by any field observations, which are clearly needed in view of the default emission factors used. So far the results of mitigation options analysis are still limited. Training on the use of LEAP and MARKAL models are needed. (c) UNEP/GEF project on "Economics of GHG limitation - Phase 1: Establishment of a Methodological Framework for Climate Change Mitigation Assessment". This project builds on previous work, especially that of ALGAS. It deals with GHG mitigation analysis and cost-effective options, focusing on four main issues: (a)
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associated macro economics; (b) land use and forestry; (c) Agriculture, and (d) energy. This project is implemented by the IMH in cooperation with relevant ministries and government agencies. Vietnam: Preparation of initial national communication related to the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change" funded by GEF and implemented by the IMH with the objective of enabling the country to harmonize and uptake the previous results, fill in gaps, further enhance its scientific and technical capacity, so that the country can prepare the reporting of its initial national communication. The Vietnam national communication report has been submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat in November 2003.

5. Thua Thien Hue Province and Huong River Basin

Natural geographical characteristics The Huong River Basin is the largest basin in Thua Thien-Hue Province. It has 104 km length and total river system basin area of 2,830 km2, among this; more than 80% is mountainous and hilly areas. The average basin altitude is 330 m, average basin slope is 28.5%, average basin width is 44.6km, average basin River network density is not so high (0.6 km/km2). It has three main tributaries, namely Ta Trach, Huu Trach and Bo. Administratively, Huong River Basin consists of the following districts: Nam Dong a part of Phu Loc, Huong Thuy, Phu Vang, Hue city, Huong Tra, Quang Dien and a part of Phong Dien.

Huong River basin belongs to Thua Thien Hue Province, which located in the specific monsoon climate area of Central Part of Vietnam with severe hydrological regime: very long dry season, short rain season but often with very big flow and discharge. Every year in this area there are number of extreme weather events such as typhoons, tropical cyclones which bring heavy rain with very high rainfall. Moreover, the topography of the basin changes rapidly from the upstream high mountain zone down to the plain and large lagoon system, with hardly any transition area. This results in a high runoff in the rainy season, and large floods and inundations downstream. In the dry season, salinity intrusion comes very high upstream, even upstream of Bach Ho bridge.

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Every 2-3 years there are big floods and inundation in the Hue and adjacent areas. However, to reserve the landscape of Hue city and coastal tourist areas, it is not rational to build an embankment system around Hue city and the historical sites. Such a project would require very high budget from the central government and may harm the landscape of heritage and tourist areas. Because of the above characteristics, Huong River basin and Thua Thien Hue Province are very sensitive and vulnerable to climate change impacts and disasters. In recent years, Thua Thien Hue Province and Huong River Basin have been impacted and influenced by numerous natural disasters such as typhoons, storms,

floods and drought with significantly increasing frequency and intensity, causing enormous socio-economical losses, serious damages in downstream environment, effecting the World Heritage Hue city, destroying many people lives and property. For example, the losses in Thua Thien Hue Province caused by the historical big floods in October 1983 and September 1990 are presented in Table 1. Table 1. Losses caused by the floods in October 1983 and September 1990 No 1 2 Item Number of people dead and missing Damaged rice area Damaged/inundated subsidiary crop area Damaged industrial crop area Fields swept away/filled up Infrastructure Collapsed houses Hospitals Flood in Oct. 1983 30 6152ha 8754 ha 65 ha 30 ha 1340 52 Flood in Sep. 1990 5 7066ha 1994 ha 1577 ha 370 ha 735 91

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Irrigation structures: Soil swept away Stone swept away Concrete Transport Soil Concrete Damaged bridges Electrical cable poles 4 Other properties Sunk boats Dead buffaloes/cows Dead domestic cattle Total losses

1.24 mil. m3 1050 m3 240 m3 821000 m3 198 m3 54 32 915 425 heads 170000 75 bills. VNDong

1.29 mil. m3 1265 m3 151 m3 742000 m3 285 m3 55 35 270 heads 194210 120 bills. VNDong

The main stream of Huong River - Huu Trach - has the length of more than 100km. Originating from the altitude of 1,318m, it runs in the general direction of South-North, passing the Hue city then flows into the Tam Giang Cau Hai lagoon system and finally goes to the sea at Thuan An river mouth. Main branch of Huong River called Ta Trach has 51km of length, the basin area of 729km2. Ta Trach meets Huu Trach at Tuan confluence (in 10km upstream from Hue). Besides, there is Bo river (length: 94km, basin area: 938km2) that converges with Huong River at Sinh confluence (8km in the north from Hue). During the past decades, the natural forests in the uplands in the basin have been badly degraded, due to recent uncontrolled logging, timber extraction for construction and fuel wood, the destruction and spraying of defoliants during the war. Erosion and large-scale flooding are the result. The new forests are mainly pine, casuarinas tree and some industrial plants. Hard stone is distributed in high mountainous area; schist, laterite and bazan soil - in midland, sandy-clay - in the plain and sandy - along the coast. The soil is poor with low humus and strongly eroded. Yet, during the dry season from January to August, the flow of Huong River diminishes to such an extent that salt water traverses up-river and causes salinity intrusion, threatens the domestic water intake of the city. This insufficient water sources have been occurred seriously in many years. Up to now, the irrigated area is about 50 to 60% of cultivated area. Tam Giang Cau Hai lagoon system in Huong River basin is the largest lagoon in Vietnam and unique ecosystem. Tam Giang-Cau Hai was included on a list of 16 proposed by MOST wet land and marine protected areas in 1998. On this list, the area of the proposed marine protected area of Tam Giang Cau Hai lagoon was given as 24,876 ha. However, because of developing aquaculture without planning, the environment and water quality of the lagoons has been changing with negative impacts. Building the anti-salinity weir in Huong River is decreasing freshwater income to downstream and impacting to fauna and flora in lagoons. Hydro-meteorological conditions The basin has the highest rainfall in Vietnam, with more than 5 meters of rain per year in the highlands and up to 3 meters of rain in the Hue city. Annual rainfall in Huong River basin is very abundant, about 2500 mm in coastal areas to 3500 mm in the upper part of the basin. Besides, the topography of the basin changes
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rapidly from upper stream down to plain, there is almost not a transition area. This results in a high runoff in the rainy season, big floods and inundation in wide areas. Rainy season prolongs from August to December, 3 months of rain predominantly are SeptemberNovember, with total rainfall of 1,850 mm, accounting for 65.9 % of yearly rainfall, of which rainfall of October is recorded at 796 mm, accounting for 43 % of seasonal rainfall. Maximum 3-day rainfall is 600-1,000 mm corresponding to frequency of 5 % in the Basin of Huong River. Typhoon, tropical depression could cause extremely big flood on Huong River. Cold air surge operated particularly or cold air surge combined with typhoon, or with low atmosphere, could also cause flood above alarming level 3. Large floods usually occur from September -November, but at the end of May 1989, there was a flood spell that hit Hue at 1 m higher than alarming level 3. As the characteristic of Thua Thien-Hue seacoast, therefore, prior disembarking to the North (Quang Binh-Thanh Hoa), so tropical storms went along the seacoast of this region and causing heavy rain, and enormous flood here. In 1990, there were 5 times that tropical storms caused flood above alarm level 3 at Hue, although, in those 5 times, typhoons did not enter directly to Thua Thien Hue. When flood on Huong River, Bo River was up, then jointed directly typhoon, they cause extremely enormous losses. From 1976-1998, there was two times that low atmosphere disembarked directly to the Huong River Delta, causing flood at above alarm level 3. Land use Thua Thien-Hue Province has a total area of 500,920ha, among this 49,107ha is agricultural land, 180,412ha is forest. Except Nam Dong district that is located in the mountainous area, other districts are in the plain and strongly affected by inundation. Agricultural lands are described in Table 3. Fields in Huong River plain are low in comparison to sea level and flood water level so almost all of them are inundated when flood exceeding the alarm level 3 (at Hue, the alarm level 3 is 3.00m). 2/3 of population and 2/3 of houses in Huong River Basin may be inundated when a big flood occurs. The distribution of population and houses by altitude is described in Table 2. Table 2: Distribution of population and houses by elevation Elevati on (m) 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 Total Populati on 101,135 187,689 301,028 87,807 39,339 717,018 No. of household 21,438 40,025 58,742 16,896 7,662 144,763 House Concrete Health School houses Station with tile roofing 14,991 79 9 49 23,615 219 21 110 16,231 305 24 45 3,335 462 5 26 1,086 105 2 13 59,258 1,170 61 243 Warehouse 25 45 43 24 8 145 Office

93 44 70 18 7 232

Table 3. Agricultural land distribution (ha) in Huong River Basin

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Land type Specialized in Rice nursery Double rice Spring Winter rice Summer Autumn rice 1 rice +1 subsidiary Specialized in subsidiary area Total

South part of Huong River 585 7,568 1,746 2,666 134 3,342 1,5471

Northern part of Huong River Southern part Northern part Subof Bo river of Bo river Total 204 242 446 2,991 370 237 265 2,064 6,131 5,019 906 551 182 1,478 8,378 8,011 1,276 788 447 3,542 14,509

Total 1,031 15,579 2,721 3,454 581 6,883 29,980

Table 4. Distribution of cultivated area (ha) by elevation Elevation (m) Below 0 0-0.5 m 0.5-1 m Above 1 m Total Southern part Of Huong River 5,145 2,800 1,897 5,629 15,471 Northern part of Huong River Southern part Northern part of of Bo river Bo river 500 1,528 1,528 2,762 2,640 1,567 1,463 2,521 6,131 8,378 Total 7,173 7,090 6,104 9,613 29,980

Social-economic development In 2004 Thua Thien Hue maintain a good growth rate; the industrial production value increased 15.5% in comparison with that of 2003. Agriculture-forestry-aquaculture production has overcome difficulties and challenges on weather, diseases..., and the growth rate obtained 5.4% in comparison with in 2003. The agriculture value decreased respectively from 59.9% to 58.6% and 57% of GDP. In 2004 the tourism and service sectors has developed and meet the demands for production, business and living standard of the people. The economic growth rate is expected 9-10% during the period 2001-2005, and 12-13% during the period 2006-2010. Transportation Railway and national road 1A run across the province from the northwest to the southeast. The section from Phu Oc to Hue with the length of more than 15km crosses inundated fields, and the section on the right riverside of Hue is located in a rather high area. A lot of inter-provincial, inter-county, inter-regional roads crossing the plain are often inundated when a big flood occurs. Water resource management structures
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Huong River is a main source of irrigation for agriculture, aquaculture, provides water supply for industry and energy generation, municipal and civil use, for existence of aquatic and water related environment, ecosystems and wild life on the large area. Most of people in the Huong River basin are living near poverty line; their livelihoods strongly depend on its water (hydrological) regime. In Huong River basin there is a unique ecological and economical site Tam GiangCau Hai lagoons - the largest and most complicated lagoon system in Vietnam, which is very sensitive to climate change. In the basin, there are 10 medium and small reservoirs with the volume from 2 to 10 million m3, 6 water storage dams, 56 irrigation/drainage pumping stations, dyke system for preventing the plain from sea water intrusion and dyke system along Huong River from Qui Lai to Tan My, along Tam Giang, Dong lagoons and Hai bridge. There is high concentrated population in Huong River plain, most of cultivated land are rice fields. The peoples livelihood strongly depends on water resource management. Water demand for agriculture, aquaculture, other economical sectors and human life in the area is very high. Huong River is a huge water source but the water distribution in different times of year is very unequal. Very high discharge in rainy season causes flood and inundation, low flow in long dry season often causes water supply crisis, increases water pollution, salinity intrusion, ecological and wild life degradation. Because of geographical and socio-economical characteristics, the water resource of Huong River basin is highly influenced by climate change impacts. The uplands in the basin have been badly degraded, due to timber extraction for construction and fuel wood, the spraying of defoliants during the war and recent uncontrolled use of wood for fuel.

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6. Climate change in Huong River Basin

Climate change impacts In some areas, such as the mountainous areas of Thua Thien Hue province, run-off is high and the module reaches 75-80 l/s/km2. Climate change will impact on annual run-off and make it change from +4% down to -19%. The change of low flow is rather significant from -2% down to -24%. Calculation results show that by 2070, for medium and small rivers, the biggest decrease of annual run-off would be recorded in the Thua Thien hue province 23-40.5%. PET would increase by 3%, 8% successively. During the dry period of the year, the flow of the Huong River diminishes to such an extent that salt water traverses up-river and threatens the domestic water intake of the Hue city. This process will increase. More salinity intrusion would affect the ecosystems and could lead to loss of habitat of fresh water living creatures. It could also result in the reduction of mangrove forest, strong decrease in population of some aquacultural species, and a decrease in sources of photosynthesis products and nutrition for living creatures in seabeds and river-beds. Thus, quality of living habitat of various living aqua-creatures would get worse. The increase of water temperature would lead to clearer thermal vertical stratification that, in its turn, would affect biological habit of living creatures. An increased temperature of the coastal water could accelerate mineralization and organic decomposition processes and affect the food chain of living creatures, and reduce the productivity and commercial quality of aqua-cultural products. Due to larger rainfall intensity, salt concentration of seawater would reduce by 10 - 20% during a long period. As a result, brackish water and coastal living creatures, especially, dual crust mollusks (like arca and oyster) would die massively because they could not stand against changes of salt concentration. Storm surges would be stronger and threaten structures in the coastal zone and low lands of the province. The coastal zone will become narrower unless the dyke system would be upgraded. Sea level rise would threaten industrial, transport and national defence structures that were designed according to present sea level. The increase of floods would negatively affect the foundations of dike structures. The increased magnitude and intensity of typhoons and tornadoes would require the strengthened resistance of structures that lead to increase of their costs in the region. Adaptation problems The provincial authorities have constructed a number of dikes and dams to contain the flood waters and prevent salt water intrusion. Yet, the devastating floods of 1999, and the less severe floods of 2000, indicate the shortcomings of this structural approach to flood management and mitigation. An alternative solution that is based on an integrated management approach of the basin is being considered. Such an integrated approach can also address the current over-exploitation of resources in the basin and the lagoon. At local levels, very few activities are carried out on flood vulnerability reduction, water resources protection or resource rehabilitation. Most local work has been disaster relief. Other investments, for example in water supply, sanitation and pollution mitigation and prevention have been extremely small or absent. Huong river basin should be managed sustainably to reduce flood vulnerability and improve the livelihoods and quality of nature.
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Lagoons, small bays, deltas, sand beaches, islands, soft and hard sea beds, and brackish aqua-cultural ponds have varying structures and functions. There are many fishery and farming activities along the lagoons. More then 300,000 people, mostly poor, are living along the lagoon. The problem of managing of the entire system needs deep analysis. Hue and Huong River are World Heritage sites and tourist places. Protection and adaptation for Huong river system to any change is very important for these activities. The coastal zone of the river basin, including Phu Vang district, is a very complicated combination of downstream flows and the unique Tam Giang - Cau Hai lagoon system with some poorest, most vulnerable communities of fisherfolk and peasant households. Phu Vang is among the most vulnerable districts in the Thua Thien Hue province. Most damages and losses in Phu Vang are caused by rain water floods from the upstream area as well as by storms arriving from the sea. The low level of poor peoples culture and awareness, their very limited sources of income, along with their unwillingness or disability to resettle - all this contribute to the losses of human lives and properties in the case of a large storm or flood. In the historical 1999 flood, 64 households of Hoa Duan village of the lagoon were washed out to the ocean and hundreds of people died or remained missing. Together with more severe floods and storms in the rainy season, the stronger and longer drought season leads to deeper salinity intrusion, environmental pollution, land and wild life degradation, may bring bankruptcy to many small agricultural and aqua-cultural farms in the lagoon. Poor people are getting trapped into a downward cycle of needing more subsidy-credits, increasing debts and more poverty. One of the biggest problems of the district is erosion and land loss along the Huong river banks and sea coasts, due to floods and the complicated mechanism of opening and closing the salt water intrusion barrier where the river enters the lagoon. There must be a governmental program for anti-erosion constructions in the coastal zone from the Thuan An estuary to the Tu Hien estuary. The government and local authorities have been trying to cope with some of the problems. They established Disaster Management and Preparedness Centers in district and local level. They also plan the project of Ta Trach Reservoir for the purposes of flood control, water regulation and distribution for agriculture, aquaculture and household use. But these measures are still in stage of preparation and not yet effectively coordinated.

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7. Objectives Development objectives The main development objective of the project is to strengthen the capacity of the sectors, institutions and Vietnamese people to adapt and respond to the climate change impacts in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change and disasters by raising their understanding and preparedness, to foresee, minimize the negative impacts and losses. Through this, the project may also contribute to the implementation of Vietnam national strategy on poverty elimination and sustainable development. The results and findings of the project may be analyzed to develop a participatory climate change adaptation and integrated water resources management model, which can be used in other basins and areas nation-wide. Project objectives 1. To combine water flow modeling for an entire river basin with participatory management tools for a coastal commune. 2. To study existing and future climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin and understand how poor peoples livelihoods strongly depend on climate and water resource changes. 3. To improve awareness, a pro-active attitude and preparedness regarding climate change and its impacts among all related stakeholders, especially the most vulnerable communities and individuals; 4. To assess, prioritize and improve the existing adaptation measures with stakeholders participation. 5. To prepare and develop, with stakeholders participation, the optimal feasible adaptation plan and policy at district level with view to replicate at provincial and national levels.

8. Methodology of the project

Overall approach The project combines the stakeholder approach with water modeling. The technical scientific tools will be selected and employed on the basis of needs as by IMH will support local awareness raising and designing of adaptation measures. Participatory tools will facilitate the presentation and discussion of water modeling results in the district and commune as well the follow-up that will aim at demand driven needs and timely adaptation to the benefit of the most vulnerable people. The chosen set of participatory management and technical science tools supports the effective transition between stages in a project cycle, from research to decision making to implementation of adaptation measures. In the preparation stage, results will be collected from other projects in the district that have been conducted by other parties, including a vulnerability assessment (VA), a participatory rural appraisal (PRA) and implementation of adaptation measures.
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Water modeling tools The project will use mathematical models with various physical scenarios. 1. Rainfall-runoff model - for calculation of runoff flow caused by rainfall on the basin. When rainfall, rain distribution change and rain amount lost by evapo-transpiration and temperature increase, the runoff and discharge will change. The results of this model may serve as inputs for other models. 2. Water use simulation models - used for calculation water demand and supply of all water users in the basin, based on predicted demand of sectors for the next 50, 70, 100 years, in the context that water resources change together with climate change. The results will help the policy makers and managers on strategy development, integrated water resources management according to climate change scenarios. 3. Hydrodynamic model - will calculate and simulate the flood regime, the inundation areas, the salinity intrusion for the downstream plain with the context of water resources changing and sea level rise. 4. Secondary analysis models - will analyze the consequent impacts of the water resources changing to the regional socio-economical situation of the province and the basin, using GIS and some economy analytical models. Mostly MIKE11 and MIKEBASIN will be used. The computer software for these models and skills to handle this software are already available at IMH. Also the data for the Huong River Basin are available. The larger part of the work will consist of transforming the results into presentation materials that are understandable for the uneducated in the village. Participatory tools 1. The project will be structured a stakeholder action plan (SAP) designed by IMH in Hanoi and DoNRE in Hue. The SAP format, included in the annex of this report. The designed SAP format supports the planning and meaningful integration of various tools of the project. The SAP format supports the identification of relevant stakeholders and the further selection of stakeholders to be interviewed or to remain as informants all along in the project. The SAP format also facilitates meaningful modifications and further decisions in the course of the project. 2. Systematic communication with authorities, scientific institutes and development agencies working in the province and district will avoid overlap and create meaningful integration of activities. 3. A large meeting in the study commune will create the opportunity to introduce the project in the village and present the modeling results in accessible ways. 4. Semi-structured interviews (based on a list of issues be discussed) and informal talks will be conducted among a selection of relevant categories of stakeholders. These interviews and talks bring out worries, felt needs and possible measures. They help improving the quality of adaptation measures. They also generate ownership of the adaptation plan by the poor which reinforces their pro-active attitude and participation in the implementation and future maintenance of measures. Pilot questionnaires are

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designed and tested in a small of interviews. The findings will shape the final design of questionnaires that will be used in more interviews. An estimated number of 10 interviews for each category will be held. The categories may be: poor fishermen, their wives, poor farmers, their wives, better-off villagers, government officials, relevant outsiders such as merchants. The SAP format supports the selection criteria and precisely adjusted times and places for interviews. 5. A decision making workshop is held with a small number of educated representatives for future scenario structuring and decision making about best adaptation measures. The supporting computer software DEFINITE is freely available. This workshop helps defining so far implicit problems. It clarifies the implicit criteria that stakeholders have in mind. It structures thinking about the future. It brings about compromise among stakeholders with different interests, opinions and power positions. It results in clear policy recommendations. This workshop requires both careful preparation and follow-up. The other participatory tools bring about this care. 6. Key stakeholders remain guided in their communication with their immediate social environment by the project staff. The local communication by key stakeholders helps maintaining the momentum of the project in the village and providing more information to the project staff. 7. A large meeting in the commune by the end of the project is organized to present the results and have discussions with the involved stakeholders.

9. Activities in the first phase of the project

1. Develop and submit the project document, prepare and finalize the detailed workplan 1. Collect and process data and information needed for the proposal preparation, meeting and consultation with relevant institutions and experts. 2. Documentations overview and review of all relevant projects and activities. 3. Prepare, finalize and submit all projects documents following required format: workplan, time schedule, budget, logical framework and monitoring indicators. Revise and change the documents if needed. 4. Develop and submit the proposal to NCAP and MONRE. 2. Collect and analyze data on meteo-hydrological factors, natural conditions and general regional socioeconomic sutuation in the study area. 1. Collect and analyze the hydro-meteorological and natural conditions data (including topography, geology, vegetation cover, land use, ecosystem conditions and trends), overview of the general socioeconomic situation of the Huong River Basin and its coastal district Phu Vang as a pilot area for stakeholder research and adaptation measures development and implementation in reality. 2. Collect data and records on climate and water related natural disasters and extreme events: flood, drought, storms and typhoons, erosion and salinity intrusion, ecosystem and wild life degradation etc. with possible data on damages and losses for recent years of the Huong River Basin, Thua Thien Hue Province in general and Phu Vang district in particular.
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3. Analyze, assess and process the collected data in context of climate change adaptations. 3. Assess the impacts of climate change on water resources by conducting water and climate change modeling for the Huong River Basin with the help of MIKE 11 and MIKE Basin or other suitable and available software. 1. Study and develop climate change scenarios for the study area: the overall consideration for Huong River Basin with focus on impacts to coastal area and district Phu Vang. 2. Apply the modeling method like MIKE 11 and MIKE Basin (or other) software for the Huong River Basin. 3. Study and assess the climate change impacts to water resources of the study area based on calculation results of stream-flow, evapo-transpiration, ground water, flood and drought, water quality, socioeconomical development trends. 4. Collect and analyze, in Hanoi, data on administrative and socio-economic circumstances of Phu Vang district. 1. Collect the administrative and socio-economical data (including development plan of main sectors: agriculture, irrigation, industry, energy, infrastructure, transportation; data on poverty and vulnerability), water management data (water use, supply and demand) of Phu Vang district in context and with consideration of whole Huong river basin. 2. Systematize, analyze and process collected data. 5. Collect and analyze in Hanoi, data on livelihoods and vulnerability to climate change of the poorest people in Phu Vang district. 1. Collect reports on vulnerability assessment to possible climate change impacts and disasters of the communities, particularly the poor people in Phu Vang district. 2. Collect other data on living conditions, livelihoods and vulnerability to the possible climate change impacts and disasters of the poorest people in the area. 3. Assess from these reports and other data the preparedness and coping capacity of the poor in Phu Vang and their felt needs of improvement or intervention. 4. Assess options and priorities for adaptation for the poor to impacts of climate change. 6. Conduct exploratory meetings with key-stakeholders in Thua Thien Hue province and Phu Vang district. 1. Introduce the project at provincial and district level.

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2. Identify the vulnerable sectors and communities, determine the linkage between poverty and climate change impacts in this areas. 7. Develop and implement a stakeholder action plan (SAP) for Phu Vang district (see annex for SAP format). 1. Use SAP format to identify local and external stakeholders in the Phu Vang district with their roles, interests, power positions, opinions, responsibilities and social interactions. 2. Use SAP format to select stakeholders to be invited for the large gathering. 3. Use SAP format to select stakeholders for interviews. 4. Use SAP format to identify best places and times for interviews. 5. Use SAP format to select key-stakeholders for a technical workshop. 6. Use SAP format to foresee obstacles that may come up. 7. Use SAP format to foresee solutions to these problems. 8. Carry out a large stakeholder meeting in a coastal village to introduce the project to the local community and authority. 1. Identify stakeholders to be invited and prepare these people for the meeting. 2. Design a plan for the meeting. 3. Prepare materials to explain climate change impacts at the meeting. 4. Carry out the meeting. 5. Assess and report the meetings results. 9. Carry out semi-structured interviews with different categories of local and external stakeholders. 1. Prepare the questionnaire and subjects for interview. 2. Enlist interviewees according to different categories of stakeholders. 3. Carry out pilot interviews for each category of interviewees. 4. Analyze the feedback information from pilot interviews and improve questionnaires and methods if needed. 5. Carry out the interviews.

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6. Assess the results of the interviews. 10. Organize a decision making workshop (technical workshop) with key-stakeholders in Phu Vang district using software for scenario structuring, multi-criteria analysis and decision making support. 1. Select and invite capable representatives of the poor fishermen, their wives, poor farmers, their wives, better-off villagers, government officials, relevant outsiders such as merchants, and external experts, with a maximum of twelve people. 2. Develop possible options of adaptation to climate change in the Phu Vang district, with focus on solutions of problems related to water resources and the coastal and lagoon system. 3. Send this preliminary documentation to invited key-stakeholders. 4. During the workshop, introduce and discuss the possible climate change adaptation scenarios. 5. Discuss with the participants potential involvement conflicts and potential for compromise. 6. Process the results with the help of a software package for multi-criteria analysis and future scenario structuring (DEFINITE or other). 7. If needed, again hold discussions and process with the software until the outcome has reached a optimal compromise for all. 8. Report the meeting. 11. Guide key-stakeholders in their communication with the social environment. 1. Keep contacts with the key-stakeholders from the technical workshop, guide them in communicating and working with their social environment about the workshop information and adaptation measures that they committed to implement. 2. Collect, analyze and process the feedback data and information. 12. Carry out second large stakeholder gathering in the village to conclude the projects first phase. 1. Prepare to the gathering: schedule and plan, prepare information and documentation using results of the interviews, the Workshop and feedbacks. 2. Conduct the gathering. 3. Report of the results of the gathering. 13. Summarize and finalize the first phase works and prepare the second phase.

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1. Overview and revise all the project reports and results. 2. Develop the outline of the First Phase final report. Draft the report.. 3. Send the report for consultant's comments. 4. Finalize the report. 5. Submission and publication of the report.

10. Institutional setting

Institutional setting in Viet Nam The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) has been assigned by MONRE as the executive Agency to develop and implement the project in cooperation with other related institutions. National and international experts from NCAP, Netherlands Embassy, relevant economical sectors, provincial and local institutions, and representatives from local communities will support and assist IMH on project development and implementation. In the field, Thua Thien Hue provincial and district administrations (Peoples Committee), related provincial departments like: Natural resources and Environmnent (DONRE), Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD), Tourism (DOT), Fishery (DOF) etc., Huong River Management Board, TT Hues Red Cross, may be the PMU of Hydropower plants and dams will participate implementation of the project activities with the cooperation and support of IMH and the projects officials. The key stakeholders will consist of representatives of local (district and village levels) communities and CBOs (the Women Union, Youth Union and Farmers Union etc. should be included), especially the poor people, provincial and local government and authorities, local officials of all relevant sectors, local businessmen, local and external experts from related agencies. The stakeholders will be guided by a Technical Team, who will provide the technical assistance and information. This Technical Team will include three groups of several experts: a Vulnerability and adaptation assessment group, a Policies and measures development group and a Modeling group. The Management Board will consist of a Project Director and a Project Coordinator and be assisted by an administrative officer, accountant and secretariat. They will undertake a considerable part of the analytical and paper works and be assisted by both national and international experts. IMH will provide the facilities for the project including offices, office equipments such as telephone, fax, computer, Internet and other services: transport, finance, legal documents support. The National Project Coordinator or NC (distinct from international coordinator of NCAP), being nominated by IMH, will work permanently at project office and coordinate the project activities. The project staff will assist the NC.

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Local authorities and some key project agents will be responsible for part of the survey, vulnerability and need assessment. Other project partners will be relevant MONREs departments, other research institutes and universities, representatives of relevant NGOs or from other projects related to climate change or disasters in the area (such as Hue offices of CECI, ICZM, IMOLA etc.). Specific links will be established with the authorities in TT Hue who are responsible for the Integrated Coastal Zone Management Strategy, prepared under the Netherlandssupported ICZM project. Links will also be established with the national and provincial disaster management system, including specifically the follow up to the National Disaster Management Strategy (NDMS). The preparation of a climate change adaptation strategy and Stakeholder Action Plan will build on the strategic framework and stakeholder consultation processes provided by the ICZM Strategy for Hue and the NDMS with the goal of enhancing these strategies to include climate change adaptation. The policy analysis and recommendations will also reflect these policy frameworks as well as key national development policies such as the National Water Strategy, Viet Nam CPRGS, decentralization and socialization.

11. Logical framework

See Annex.

12. Expected outputs of first phase

1. The complete project document, the revised detailed workplan and other related documents following the required format such as: project monitoring indicators, time schedule, budget and logical framework etc. to be approved by NCAP and MONRE. 2. Analyzed, processed and systematized data and information on hydro-meteorological and natural conditions, overview of the general socio-economic situation of the Huong River Basin area (Thua Thien Hue province) and its coastal district Phu Vang in context of climate change adaptation. 3. Analyzed and systematized data on climate and water related disasters and extreme events (flood, drought, storms and typhoons, erosion and salinity intrusion, ecosystem and wild life degradation etc.) and related to them damages and losses for recent years of the Huong River Basin (Thua Thien Hue Province) and Phu Vang district. 4. Results of modeling: Projected climate change impacts to water resources of Huong River Basin and different types of climate change scenarios, with focus on impacts to coastal area and Phu Vang district. 5. Comprehensive administrative and socio-economical data, data on poverty, livelihood and water management (water use, supply and demand) of Phu Vang district. 6. Report on vulnerability assessment (VA), assessment of preparedness and coping capacity to possible climate change impacts and disasters, information and assessment of existing and on-going adaptation measures of the various communities, particularly the poorest people in Phu Vang district.

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7. Proceedings and report of the exploratory meetings in Hue and Phu Vang district. 8. Detailed stakeholder action plan (SAP) for Phu Vang district following SAP format with information about all possible stakeholders, their interrelationship, potential obstacles and solutions, to be changed, revised and improved in the process of implementation. 9. The list of participants, plan and materials for the large meeting in the village. The meetings report. 10. The interviewees list, the initial questionnaire and improved questionnaire after pilot interviews. Results and analysis of the interviews results. 11. Report of the decision making workshop with results of discussion and using the software package. Adaptation options to climate change impacts in the Phu Vang district. 12. Report and feedback data and information of the key-stakeholders from the technical workshop, after their communication and work with their own social environment. 13. Report of the second large stakeholders gathering in the village. 14. Progress reports and finance statements (of every 6-months period). Outline, draft and final version of the first phase final report. Recommendation and plan for the second phase.

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13. Organization chart for the project

MONRE

Consultants

IMH Management board: Director & Coordinator

Involved Stakeholders

Group of V&A assessment specialists

Group of modelling specialists

Group of measure development specialists

Admin. Officer, Secretariat

National and International Technical Experts Teams

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14. Time schedule

Time schedule of the first phase (18 months), summary
Year-Month 2005 Oct-Dec 2006 January January February February Febr-March March April April April-June July April-August September Oct-Nov Oct-Dec December 2007 January Jan-Febr Jan-March February Febr-Mar March Activities Preparing, writing and submitting the work plan. Review existing & on-going relevant studies. Field trip and identifying the location for the project Exploratory meetings to introduce the project. Communication with government agencies and foreign donors in the province and district to avoid overlap and create integration. Identification of stakeholders and selection of interviewees Large meeting in the village Drafting of questionnaires Pilot interviews Redesign of questionnaires First progress report writing Interviews Processing of information Conducting water and climate change modeling. Preparation for decision making workshop Workshop for future scenario structuring and decision making on policy recommendations Second progress report writing. Exploring feasibility of recommendations. Follow-up contacts with stakeholders Progress report writing Writing of proposal for second phase Preparing adaptation measures Follow-up contacts with stakeholders Drafting of conclusions Final report writing Third progress report writing
Implementing agencies

IMH, NCAP, MoNRE DoNRE, IMH IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE IMH DoNRE, IMH IMH, DoNRE IMH, DoNRE, NCAP Key-stakeholders IMH, DoNRE, NCAP IMH IMH, DoNRE IMH IMH IMH, Stakeholders DoNRE, IMH IMH, DoNRE IMH IMH

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Detailed time schedule of the first phases Work plan:

No 1. 2. 3. Activities 10 Preparing, writing and submitting the work plan and related project documents. Review of existing and on-going relevant studies. Exploratory meetings in TTHue province and Phu Vang district to introduce the project. Communication with government agencies and foreign donors in province and district to avoid overlap and create integration. Collect and analyze data on meteo-hydrological factors, natural and environmental conditions and general socio-economic situation in the study area (Huong river basin & PhuVang). Collect and analyze data on administrative, socio-economic state and livelihoods, carry out the vulnerability assessment to climate change of the poor people in Phu Vang district. Develop and implement a stakeholder action plan (SAP) for Phu Vang district: Identification of stakeholders and selection of interviewees Large meeting in the village Drafting of questionnaires Pilot interviews First progress report and finance statement Redesign of questionnaires Interviews and processing of information Conducting water and climate change modeling for Huong River Basin Preparation of decision making workshop
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2005 11 12

2006 6 7

10

11

12

2007 2

4.

5.

6. 7. 8. 9. 10 . 11 . 12 . 13 . 14

. 15 . 16 . 17 . 18 . 19 . 20 . 21 .

Workshop for future scenario structuring and decision making on policy recommendations

Guide key-stakeholders in communication with their social environment. Exploring feasibility of recommendations
Second progress report and finance statement Second large stakeholder gathering in the village to conclude the projects first phase Writing and submitting the first phases final report. Follow-up contacts with stakeholders. Writing the proposal for second phase. Preparing adaptation measures. Third progress report and finance statement

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