Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
21 October, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
M
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
S-TERM
MULTI-DAY
L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS
STOP
1.3910
LONG 3 Buy limit 3 Buy Stop 3 Sell Stop 3 Sell limit 3 Sell limit 3 Sell limit 3
80.20/81.50/83.30 (Entered 25/08/2011) 0.9000/0.9200/0.9316 1.0660/1.0850/1.1110 0.9930/0.9620/0.9380 121.60/118.50/116.50 106.90/104.00/100.00 0.8750/0.8580/0.8400 Await fresh signal.
SHORT 1 SHORT 3
1805 31.8150
1704 33.0550
Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports. CH-2008 Neuchtel info@migbank.com Switzerland www.migbank.com
MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01
EUR/USD EUR/USD
1.3937 caps for now.
EUR/USDs short-term recovery (worth almost 6%) has been capped below resistance at 1.3937. Bears still need a meaningful confirmation beneath that all-important psychological level at 1.3000 to unlock further scope into 1.2860 (near 2011 low) and even further. Key resistance remains at 1.3937 (15th Sept high), which is near the previous breakout zone at 1.4000. Confirmation above here will neutralise the status quo. Inversely, the US dollar remains above the 200 day moving average as most other popular risk markets weaken from overcrowded uptrends. EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Short-term price activity has found initial support close to the previous breakout zone at 76.40. Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are maintaining their spike above our trigger level of 15000 contracts and is holding at 3 standard deviations from the yearly average. This will help sustain the bull-run from historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
SpecialReport:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.
VIDEO
MIGBankWebinar:WhytheUSdollarislikelytogainupto30%in612months. MIGBankUSDollarInterviewonBloomberg
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Short 3 at 1.3660, Objs: 1.3340/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3910
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2
GBP/USD
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await signal.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3
USD/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Long 3 at 77.20, Objs: 80.20/81.50/83.30, Stop: 75.90
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4
USD/CHF
Lower high in place at 0.9083.
USD/CHF appears to have printed a lower high at 0.9083 following the break under 0.8881 yesterday. While under 0.9123 a continuation of this weakness is favoured. It is also noted that the current trading region is close to the location of the 50 week moving average, at 0.8949. Thus, a continuation of weakness would also warn of a breakdown of the recent recovery structure. However, back under 0.7712 is required to change the long-term bullish bias. Todays break lower also opens up the potential for a further extension towards 0.8600, where a return to a bullish bias would become attractive USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP again.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 0.8600, Objs: 0.9000/0.9200/0.9316, Stop: 0.8500
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5
USD/CAD
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Buy Stop 3: 1.0275, Objs:1.0660/1.0850/1.1110, Stop: 1.0150
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6
AUD/USD
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 1.0090, Objs: 0.9930/0.9620/0.9380, Stop: 1.0290
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7
GBP/JPY
116.84/98 is expected, below which would open up an extension towards 115.00 immediately. A sustained break over 123.31 is required to change the current bearish GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP bias. Should this take place a larger corrective phase higher would then be anticipated.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 123.15, Objs: 121.60/118.50/116.50, Stop: 124.40
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8
EUR/JPY
breached, scope is seen for a fresh swing higher to re-test the 107.68 level. However, the larger structure present since 114.18 favours the formation of a lower high close to 108.03, for a return to re-test 100.76. Failure to hold under 108.03 will warn of a larger recovery structure, negating our medium-term bearish bias. Also, if a push over 108.03 can be sustained this will bring into focus a potential false break lower out of a falling channel in the daily timeframe. Under the annual low would open up an extension to 97.50, ahead of EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP 92.80, levels not seen since 2000.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 107.90, Objs: 106.90/104.00/100.00, Stop: 109.00
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9
EUR/GBP
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8870, Objs: 0.8750/0.8580/0.8400, Stop: 0.8970
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10
EUR/CHF
support here would warn of a larger fall back down to the 1.2000 level. Although bullish for the time being, it is expected that the 1.2500-1.3000 zone may limit the current recovery phase from 1.0075. It is anticipated that the markets willingness to trade with the bias of the SNB may exhaust should this trading region be met, as further gains in this cross are likely to become more dependent on economic releases. EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP A sustained move under 1.2024 will alter our near-term bullish bias.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
Long stopped. Await fresh trading signal.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11
GOLD
VIDEO
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
SHORT 1: 1805, Obj: 1300. Stop: 1704
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12
SILVER
Key support at $26.0700.
Silvers latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time silver has crashed, following its 30% fall from April this year. The move was triggered following a DeMark exhaustion sell signal and has now wiped out almost 50% of silvers prior gains (taken from Silvers all-time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest. Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers longterm uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Short 3 at 31.8150, Objs: 28.4300/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 33.0550
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13
LEGAL TERMS
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
www.migbank.com
14
CONTACT