Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing:
Vietnam: 3rd International Workshop on the South China Sea

Carlyle A. Thayer November 9, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] Q1Pleasetellmesomeofthemostimportantideasinyourconferencepaper. ANSWER: Developments affecting security in the South China Sea this year have been like a soccer game of two different halves. In the first half China was very assertive in enforcing its jurisdiction in disputed waters of the South China Sea. In thesecondhalfChinawentonthedefensiveandpromoteddiplomaticdiscussions. There is now a window of opportunity for claimants to the South China Sea to explore areas confidence building measures under the just adopted ASEANChina Guidelines to Implement the DOC (Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South ChinaSea).Atthesametime,ChinaandVietnamhavetheopportunitytomovefrom confrontationtocooperationundertheirbilateralAgreementonBasicPrinciplesfor theSettlementofSeaIssues. Therearesixtrends,however,thatcouldderailthisprocess: 1.Increasedexplorationforoilandgasreserves. 2.Chinasbuildupofitsciviliannavalcapacityformaritimejurisdictionenforcement. 3. Force modernization by regional states and, in particular, the expansion of submarinefleets. 4.U.S.reengagementintheregionandChinasresponse. 5.EnhancedrolesforJapanandIndiainregionalsecurityandChinasresponse. 6.Developmentofnewregionalsecurityarchitecturethatmayembedmajorpower rivalries. Insum,realpolitikcontinuallythreatenstounderminebuildinglegalregimes. Q2Inthemeetingchairedbyyou,whichreportdoyouthinkwasthemostnotable? CouldyoucommentespeciallyonthereportofProf.DustinWangKuanhsiungabout thefisheriesdispute. ANSWER: Professor Wang was unable to attend the workshop, his paper was delivered by Tai Tsung Han. Wangs paper made two major points. First, it argued

2 that international law, especially as it applies to semienclosed seas, enjoined the littoralstatestocooperate. Second,Wangspaperarguedthatsincefishdonotrespectnationalmaritimezones and because marine pollution was a threat to the interests of all, a new Regional Fishery Management Organization needed to be created. Wangs proposal addressed one of the pressing issues raised by disputes over the South China Sea: howtopreserveavitalresourceforthebenefitofall. Q3WhatsyourcommentonthepresentationsoftheVietnamesescholars? ANSWER:TheperformanceoftheVietnameseparticipantswasimpressive.Itisclear that Vietnam has succeeded in developing a cadre of younger persons who are steeped in international law and South China Sea affairs. There were four participants and they acquitted themselves well, giving as good as they got. They were not reluctant to challenge Chinese assertions and based their arguments in international law. In line with official policy, they offered useful proposals for cooperation.OneofthemostinterestingproposalswasbyVuHaiDangwhoargued foraspecialmaritimezoneinthenorthwestoftheSouthChinaSeawhereChinaand Vietnam could cooperate over fisheries as this was a bilateral matter not affecting thirdparties. Q4Accordingtoyouwhatweretheachievementsoftheworkshop? ANSWER: The first two workshops internationalized the South China Sea issue and putChinaonthebackfoot.Thisworkshopwasaimedatpromotingcooperationfor regional security and development. There were seven Chinese academics present andtheirpapers,whiledefendingChinasofficiallinethattheSouthChinaSeawas Chinasbyvirtueofhistoricrights,offeredpositiveproposalsforcooperation.Thus, themajorachievementofthisworkshopwasitsaccentuationofthepositive Q5VietnamambassadorDangDinhQuysaidthatthesovereigntydisputeoverthe SouthChinaSeaatriskofconflictexplodedintofullifthecountryinvolveddoesnot complywithinternationallaw.Whatisyourcomment? ANSWER: The third international workshop was more carefully managed than the previoustwoworkshops.Thisyearforeignparticipantsweredirectednottospeakto thepress.AllinformationwasprovidedbytheDiplomaticAcademyofVietnamand its director Dang Dinh Quy. Quys remarks reflected concerns by Vietnamese authoritiesthatnothingshouldcontradicttheofficiallinethatthetimewasripefor security cooperation in the South China Sea. Unless this opportunity was grasped therewasthelikelihoodofarmedconflict.InotherwordsQuyofferedbothacarrot of cooperation and the stick of conflict to convince China to be less assertive and more constructive. Quy was also speaking to two audiences. In addition to China, QuysremarkswereaimedatdomesticopinionthathasbeenvocallyantiChinaand implicitlycriticalofthegovernmentshandlingofrelationswithChina.Thedomestic audience basically was told cooperation rather than confrontation with China was howthegovernmentwouldhandleSouthChinaSeaissues.