Possible STV electorates in 2008

This paper describes how the 2008 general election might have played out under the Single Transferable Vote (STV system).

STV electorates
The boundaries described below (and illustrated in separate maps) are based on the following principles derived from the Electoral Act and the report of the 1986 Royal Commission on the Electoral Systems description of how STV could work in New Zealand. At least 80% of electorates must have 5 members No electorate may have fewer that 3 or more than 7 members No general electorate may straddle the North and South Islands The total number of electorates is fixed at 120 Given the above the best fit is deemed to be o South Island general, 27 MPs o North Island general, 81 MPs o Maori roll, 12 MPs This makes the North Island slightly over-represented o In the South Island, a 5-member electorate would be the same size as 2.96 existing MMP electorates. o In the North Island, a 5-member electorate would be the same size as 2.90 existing MMP electorates. o In the Maori electorate, a 5-member electorate would be the same size as 2.92 existing MMP electorates.

The specific boundaries below represent one possible scenario. While in some cases (eg Wellington) there is a compelling logic behind the electorate described, in other cases there are several workable solutions and the choice is semi-arbitrary. Examples of this are a) splitting Auckland City north-south into the suggested Auckland Central and One Tree Hill. The same area could just as easily be split east-west. b) The division of the upper South Island (ex Christchurch) into a 5-member Canterbury-West Coast electorate and a 4-member Top of the South electorate. The same area could just as easily be split into a 4-member Canterbury electorate and a 5-member West Coast-Nelson-Marlborough-North Canterbury electorate.

Results
Calculating the result in each electorate is both simple and complex. Simple because in the great majority of cases it is pretty obvious what that result would be, complex because the mathematical procedures to demonstrate that result are fraught with complications. Firstly, should the electorate vote results be used or the party vote results? In most MMP electorates small parties do better on the party vote because a vote for a small party electorate candidate would be wasted. The party vote is thus the best indicator of how many votes a candidate would get under STV (remembering that the vote is transferable and thus there is no risk of wastage). But in some cases, such as Waiariki, Wigram, Ohariu and Epsom, the party vote fails to show the support for an individual candidate (and STV is all about individual candidates). In this model, the party vote is used except where there is a viable small-party electorate candidate whose vote significantly exceeds their partys vote in the electorate. In these cases the electorate vote is used instead. All such instances are flagged in the detailed calculations below. Secondly, how are preferences to be allocated? It is certainly not as simple as a direct cascade in which (for example) all Labour voters allocate second preferences to the Greens. Most probably would, but certainly not all. Even the assumption that National supporters would give their preferences to all National candidates before any preference for another partys candidate is dubious. There would undoubtedly be some leakage, which would help small parties because they have fewer votes to leak, and would (usually) only stand one candidate. Some preference allocations are fairly obvious. For example Progressive Party voters are judged to favour Labour over National by 92% to 8%. If that is not exacty right, it is surely in the right ballpark. However, how would National Party voters choose between Labour and Green? This has been set as a 50-50 split, but is far more of a wild guess. That in turn raises a third point: the star effect. In the notional Otago STV electorate (roughly equivalent to Dunedin North + Dunedin South + Waitaki) there might be three National candidates the same as there was under MMP. But the Greens would have only one candidate and would chose the best one with the highest profile, Meteria Turei. The benefit she gained from that profile in Dunedin North could then extracted from the rest of the larger STV electorate pulling in votes that other Green candidates did not get. An even more dramatic example is

in the notional Wellington STV electorate. In Ohariu, the UnitedFuture candidate (Peter Dunne) got 33% of the vote. In Wellington Central the UnitedFuture candidate (Vaughan Smith) got 0.5% of the vote. While there is no mathematical basis for it, common sense suggests that Mr Dunnes popularity does not simply stop when the electorate boundary is crossed. He would have pulled in votes from the Wellington Central and Rongotai areas that other UnitedFuture candidates did not. Such special cases are noted and explained in the detailed analysis below.

The following standard procedures have been used: Results are calculated using party votes, except when there is a large difference between party and electorate votes that could change the result, in which case the electorate vote is used. This leaves out the vote for parties which did not stand a candidate, but these are always votes that would have ended up being transferred anyway. These cases are labelled. For simplicity, votes cast for parties which did not gather more than 0.75% of the vote are ignored. Besides making almost no difference to the count, it is very hard to guess how the preferences of the Bill and Ben Party would flow! All preferences are allocated within parties before they are allocated to other parties. Eg it is assumed a Labour voter will rank all Labour candidates ahead of any other-party candidate. Votes are allocated from each MMP electorate to each STV electorate under the assumption that party support is evenly distributed within the electorate. For example, if the notional STV electorate X contains one third of MMP electorate Y then one third of the votes for each party in Y are allocated to X. (In practice votes are not evenly distributed in this way but trying to allocate and count individual polling booths would magnify the complexity of the task by a factor of about 20.)

The quota of votes for electing one MP is 1 divided by (#of MPs in electorate plus 1) plus infinitesimal, then rounded up to the nearest whole number. For example, in a 5-member electorate the quota is the nearest whole number that is greater than 1/6 of the vote. Because STV votes are transferable, it is vital to have a model for how voters second (and subsequent) preferences would be distributed. A full iteration of all preferences would be vastly complex, so a simplified model is used: o All voters cast a full set of preferences o To simplify the process small party votes are usually reallocated direct to those parties which are actually in the hunt for a seat rather than step by step. o To simplify calculations, where multiple reallocations are made they are made on the basis of the intermediate partys preference tree. For example, if a Progressive vote is reallocated to NZ First, and NZ First is then eliminated, the Progressive vote is reallocated according to the NZ First preference tree rather than returning to the Progressive tree. The preference distribution models are as follows: No preference distribution models allocate votes to Act, UnitedFuture, Progressive or the Maori Party (though see note re Northern Maori) because there is clearly no case where second/etc preferences has the potential to win them a seat (though each wins one or more on first preferences). Any votes reallocated to those parties would therefore simply be reallocated again on a subsequent round. Preference distributions to NZ First are however necessary to determine the result in Kaimai, and (superficially) determine results in Northland and East Cape.

FIRST CHOICE National 35

SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE Labour 45 Green 10

FIRST CHOICE Labour 5

SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE National 10 Green 5

NZ First

NZ First

Green 35

45

Labour 10

Green NZ First 10 100

80 National NZ First 80 Green National Total 3 100

20 7

NZ First NZ First Total FIRST CHOICE Green 44 10 Green Labour

5 5 Total FIRST CHOICE NZ First 30

100 Total 100 SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE Labour 88 NZ First National 44 7 1 2 2 100

SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE Labour 50 Green 20

National Green 9 National 10

National NZ First Total

8 4 100

Labour NZ First National Labour Total

Labour 1 20 20 100

National Total

40 100

Green Labour Total

FIRST CHOICE Act

SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE Labour 3 Green 1 National

FOURTH CHOICE NZ First 0 1

NZ First National National 80 Green NZ First Labour Green 2

1 1

Green National Green NZ First

0 1 1 0 15 20 3 2 20 1

35 NZ First Labour Green Labour 40 Green NZ First 20 1 National Labour National Labour NZ First

Labour 0 1

NZ First National NZ First 15 Green Labour National Total FIRST CHOICE

NZ First 0 0 0 1 0

12 100

1 Labour National 0 2 Green National 2 Green Labour Total 100

1 0 6 6

SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE

FOURTH CHOICE

Maori

Labour

65 NZ First National

Green National 20 Green National 10 Green NZ First

35 10 5

NZ First 15 5

25

5 2 2 2 5 2 5

National

15

Green NZ First Labour 7

4 NZ First Labour Green Labour 4 Green NZ First 2 8 National Labour National Labour NZ First

Green

10

Labour 1 1

NZ First National NZ First 10 Green Labour National

NZ First 3 1 0 1 0

3 Labour National 1 6 Green National 1 Green Labour

2 4 1 1

Total FIRST CHOICE Progressive

100

Total

100 FOURTH CHOICE 36 5 15 4 1 1 1 0 1 1 5 NZ First 20 31

SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE Labour 76 NZ First National National 4 Green NZ First Labour Green 10 Labour 2 1 1 Green National 35 Green National 5 Green NZ First

2 NZ First Labour Green Labour 1 Green NZ First 0 7 National Labour National Labour NZ First

NZ First National NZ First 10 Green Labour

NZ First 2 2 0 1 0

2 Labour National 1 6 Green National 1

1 5

National Total FIRST CHOICE United Future

2 100

Green Labour Total 100

1 1

SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE Labour 15 NZ First National National 80 Green NZ First Labour Green 4 Labour 0 2 6 Green National 1 Green National 7 Green NZ First

FOURTH CHOICE 7 6 1 4 3 7 30 2 4 30 1 NZ First 0 1

37 NZ First Labour Green Labour 37 Green NZ First 7 2 National Labour National Labour NZ First 0

NZ First National NZ First 1 Green

NZ First 1 0 0 2 0

Labour

Labour National Total 0 100

National 0 1 Green National 0 Green Labour Total 100

1 0 0

A simplified version of the above which distributes only to Labour and National has these values: First preference Green NZ First Act Progressive United Future Maori Party Final preference to Labour 90% 59% 7% 92% 18% 80% Final preference to National 10% 41% 93% 8% 82% 20%

As noted above, some elements of the preference trees are pretty wild guesses. In general however, these are parts of the preference tree that are seldom called on and are extremely unlikely to affect any of the outcomes.

The electorates and results

SOUTHLAND (3 MPs) Party/MMP Invercargill electorate (100%) Act 947 Green 1492 Labour 12,927 205 National 16,663 NZ First 1192 Progressive 292 UnitedFuture 319 Total Clutha-Southland (77%) 1013 1329 6230 109 15,581 745 174 196 Total 1960 2821 19,157 314 32,244 1937 466 515 59,414 (Q=14,854)

Southland preference distribution and results (quota = 14,854) Party First preference vote Remainder Act 1960 1960 Green 2821 2821 Labour 4303 19,157 (1 elected) Maori Party 314 314 National 2536 32,244 (2 elected) NZ First 1937 1937 Progressive 466 466 UnitedFuture 515 515 All seats allocated on first preferences

OTAGO (5 MPs) Party/MMP electorate Act Green Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture Total

Dunedin North (100%) 749 5221 14,608 230 9692 1132 310 312

Dunedin South (77%) 785 2971 17,408 160 12,742 1700 461 276

Clutha-Southland (23%) 302 397 1861 32 4654 223 52 58

Waitaki (73%) 1045 2035 8731 145 14,911 1056 279 204

Total 2881 10,624 42,608 567 41,999 4111 1102 850 104,742 (Q=17,458)

Otago preference distribution and results (quota = 17,458) Party Total Remainder Act, Maori, NZF, Progessive, UF votes Act 2881 2881 Green 10,624 10,624 11,568 Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive 42,608 (2 elected) 567 41,999 (2 elected) 4111 1102 7692 567 7083 4111 1102 11,406 11,931

Labour votes

21,491 (1 elected)

13, 413

UnitedFuture

850

850

A VERY close result! However, application of the star factor (if undertaken) would have helped the Greens anyway.

CANTERBURY-WESTLAND (5 MPs) Rangitata Party/MMP Selwyn (100%) electorate (100%) Act Green Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture Total 1431 1597 13,230 118 18,441 1431 329 329 1350 2761 9395 151 20,141 1115 672 421

West-Coast Tasman (50%)

Waitaki (27%)

Kaikoura (13%) 143 325 1306 26 2402 212 37 43

Waimakariri (8%) 76 163 1016 11 1483 119 32 27

Total 3759 7468 33,942 486 55,576 3925 1319 1095 107,570 (Q=17,929)

372 1870 5766 108 7594 657 146 199

387 752 3229 54 5515 391 103 76

Canterbury-Westland preference distribution and results (quota = 17,929) Party First preference vote Remainder A, M, N, NZF, P, UF votes Act 3759 3759 Green 7468 7468 12,054 Labour 16,013 23,794 (1 33,942 (1 elected) elected) Maori Party 486 486 National 55,576 (3 elected) 1789 NZ First 3925 3925 Progressive 1319 1319 UnitedFuture 1095 1095

TOP OF THE SOUTH (4 MPs) Party/MMP Nelson (100%) electorate Act 900 Green 3417 Labour 13,689 Maori Party 184 National 15,378 NZ First 1104 Progressive 282 UnitedFuture 387

Kaikoura (87%) 958 2174 8740 175 16,077 1419 248 288

West-Coast Tasman (50%)

Total 2230 7461 28,375 467 39,049 3180 676 874 82,312 (Q=16,463)

372 1870 5766 108 7594 657 146 199

TOP OF THE SOUTH preference distribution and Party First preference vote Remainde r Act 2230 2230 Green 7461 7461 Labour 11,912 28,375 (1 elected) Maori Party 467 467 National 6123 39,049 (2 elected) NZ First 3180 3180 Progressive 676 676 UnitedFuture 874 874

results (quota = 16,463) M, P, UF, A, NZF G votes votes 8020 14,637 10,264

21,855 (1 elected) 11,066

CHRISTCHURCH Party/MMP electorate Act Green Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture Total

SOUTH (5 MPs) Wigram (100%)* 355 1802 5214 10,553 471 15,320 219 * Electorate vote used

Port Hills (100%) 868 5051 13,614 250 13,816 1009 958 326

Christchurch Central (50%) 449 1844 6500 115 6205 518 349 120

Christchurch East (46%) 305 1145 7169 81 5653 622 320 150

Total 1977 9842 32,497 446 36,227 2620 16,947 815 101,371 (Q=16,896)

Christchurch South preference distribution and results (quota = 16,896) Party First preference vote Remainde P, M, U, A, N, NZF r votes Act 1977 1977 Green 9842 9842 13,254 Labour 15,601 32,497 (1 elected) 20,578 (1 elected) Maori Party 446 446 National 2485 36,227 (2 elected) NZ First 2620 2620 Progressive 51 16,947 (1 elected) UnitedFuture 815 815 Both the star effect and tactical voting effects would have applied to the Progressive vote in this electorate. Neither are considered on the basis that they would probably cancel out.

CHRISTCHURCH Party/MMP electorate Act Green Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture Total

NORTH (5 MPs) Ilam (100%) 1422 3034 10,168 195 19,541 893 550 516

Waimakariri (92%) 877 1873 11,686 129 17,056 1363 365 315

Christchurch East (54%) 359 1344 8416 95 6636 730 376 176

Christchurch Central (50%) 449 1844 6500 115 6205 518 349 120

3107 8095 36,770 534 49,438 3504 1640 1127 104,215 (Q=17,370)

Christchurch North preference distribution and results (quota = 17,370) Party First preference vote Remainder M, U, P, L, A votes Act 3107 3107 Green 8095 8095 11,749 Labour 2030 36,770 (2 elected) Maori Party 534 534 National 14,698 49,438 (2 elected) 19,477 (1 elected) NZ First 3504 3504 3504* Progressive 1640 1640 UnitedFuture 1127 1127

*Intermediate distribution to NZ First ignored as it would not have changed result

WELLINGTON (5 MPs) Party/MMP Rongotai (100%) electorate Act 758 Green 6464 Labour 16,263 Maori Party 351 National 11,950 NZ First 960 Progressive 291 UnitedFuture 326 37,363 * Electorate vote used

Wellington Central (100%) 1628 8494 14,244 351 14,589 629 272 412 40,619

Ohariu (90%)* 438 2399 10,167 9008 11,072 33,084

Total 2824 17,357 40,674 702 35,547 1589 563 11,810 111,066 (Q=18,511)

Wellington preference distribution and results (quota = 18,511) Party Total Remainder Star effect* Act 2824 2824 2824 Green 17,357 17,357 17,357 Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture 40,674 (2 elected) 702 35,547 (1 elected) 1589 563 11,810 3652 702 17,036 1589 563 11,810 1754 702 9327 1589 563 21,417 (1 elected)

L votes 18,880 (1 elected)

9555

* Star effect: UF gets half the % dif between Ohariu and Wgtn C UF vote in Wgtn C area, and one quarter in Rongotai area, taken 80% from National and 20% from Labour. Possible tactical voting effect is ignored as there was little tactical reason for voters to back Mr Dunne (his party was clearly unlikely to get a second MP).

HUTT VALLEY-PORIRUA (5 MPs) Party/MMP Hutt South electorates (100%) Act 950 Green 2655 Labour 14,769 Maori Party 293 National 13,057 NZ First 1208 Progressive 305 UnitedFuture 490 Total

Rimutaka (100%) 909 2107 14,685 260 14,452 1453 345 499

Mana (80%) 655 2322 12,167 285 10,161 823 219 366

Ohariu (10%) 130 349 1273 28 1767 80 27 84 2644 7433 42,894 866 39,437 3564 896 1439 99,173 (Q=16,529)

Hutt Valley-Porirua preference distribution and results (quota = 16,529) Party First preference vote Remaind M, P, U, A, G votes er NZF votes Act 2644 2644 Green 7433 7433 8197 Labour 9836 13,275 42,894 (2 elected) 20,652 (1 elected) Maori Party 866 866 National 6379 11,587 12,406 39,437 (2 elected) NZ First 3564 3564 Progressive 896 896 UnitedFuture 1439 1439

MANAWATU (5 MPs) Party/MMP Palmerston North electorates (100%) Act 948 Green 2258 Labour 14,108 Maori Party 247 National 14,103 NZ First 1404 Progressive 408 UnitedFuture 430 Total

Otaki (100%) 1014 2207 14,472 321 17,534 2153 453 397

Rangitikei (70%) 1014 1285 6509 215 12,398 1203 216 272

Mana (20%) 164 581 3042 71 2540 206 55 92 3140 6331 38,131 854 46,575 4966 1132 1191 102, 320 (Q=17,054)

Manawatu preference distribution and results Party First preference vote Remainde r Act 3140 3140 Green 6331 6331 Labour 4023 38,131 (2 elected) Maori Party 854 854 National 12,467 46,575 (2 elected) NZ First 4966 4966 Progressive 1132 1132 UnitedFuture 1191 1191

(quota = 17,054) M, P, U, A NZF votes votes 6638 5710 7202 8533

16,104 5646

18,362 (1 elected)

WEST CENTRAL (5 MPs) Party/MMP New Plymouth electorates (100%) Act 1106 Green 2230 Labour 10901 Maori Party 260 National 17512 NZ First 1404 Progressive 232 UnitedFuture 227 Total

Whanganui (100%) 1052 1809 12,170 342 15869 1761 253 224

Taranaki-King Country (60%) 980 964 4106 196 11,539 871 115 155

Rangitikei (30%) 434 551 2789 92 5313 516 93 116 3572 5554 29,966 890 50,233 4552 693 722 96,182 (Q=16,031)

West Central preference distribution and results (quota = 16,031) Party First preference vote Remainder P, U, M, N votes Act 3572 3572 3572* Green 5554 5554 7239 Labour 13,935 29,966 (1 elected) 16,692 (1 elected) Maori Party 890 890 National 2140 50,233 (3 elected) NZ First 4552 4552 4552* Progressive 693 693 UnitedFuture 722 722 *Intermediate distribution to NZ First and Act ignored as it would not have changed result

HAWKES BAY-WAIRARAPA (5 MPs) Party/MMP Wairarapa Tukutuki (100%) electorate (100%) Act 1660 1552 Green 2109 2146 Labour 11,464 11,457 Maori Party 266 310 National 17,860 17,904 NZ First 2040 1129 Progressive 251 309 UnitedFuture 248 196

Napier (90%) 1166 1772 11,359 245 15,095 1183 242 192

Total 4378 6027 34,280 821 50,859 4352 802 636 102,155 (Q=17,026)

Hawkes Bay-Wairarapa preference distribution and results (quota = 17,026) Party First preference vote Remainde U votes r Act 4378 4378 4378 Green 6027 6027 6103 Labour 228 34,280 (2 elected) 228 Maori Party 821 821 821 National 17,366 (1 elected) 50,859 (2 elected) 16,807 NZ First 4352 4352 4352 Progressive 802 802 802 UnitedFuture 636 636

EAST CAPE (5 MPs) Party/MMP electorates Act Green Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture Total East Coast (100%) 816 2025 10,075 457 15,160 1862 199 698 Rotorua (100%) 879 1666 10,044 596 16,836 2122 200 282 Taupo (80%) 996 1279 8287 260 15,201 1459 189 227 Napier (10%) 130 197 1262 27 1677 131 27 21 Total 2821 5167 29,668 1340 48,874 5574 615 1228 95,287 (Q=15,882)

East Cape preference distribution and results (quota = 15,882) Party First preference vote Remainde r Act 2821 2821 Green 5167 5167 7525 Labour 17,586 (1 elected) 29,668 (1 elected) 13,786 Maori Party 1340 1340 National 48,874 (3 elected) 1228 NZ First 5574 5574 6639 Progressive 615 615

UnitedFuture

1228

1228

KAIMAI (54 MPs) Party/MMP electorate Act Green Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture

Tauranga (100%)* 217 1461 2856 21,051 9309 76

Bay of Plenty (100%) 1067 1787 7404 258 21,526 3030 175 258

Coromandel (90%) 1445 2496 8538 242 16,970 2081 195 245

Total 2729 5744 18,798 500 59,547 14,420 370 579 102,678 (Q=17,114)

* Electorate vote used Kaimai preference distribution and results (quota = 17,114) Party First preference vote Remaind P, M, U, L, A, G er votes Act 2729 2729 Green 5744 5744 Labour 18,798 (1 elected) 1685 Maori Party 500 500 National 14,664 59,547 (3 elected) 8208 NZ First 14,420 14,420 19, 566 (1 elected) Progressive 370 370 UnitedFuture 579 579

WAIKATO SOUTH (5 MPs) Hamilton West Party/MMP (100%) electorate Act Green Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture Total 1263 1719 12,048 360 15,541 1449 189 378

Hamilton East (100%)

Taranaki-King Country (40%)

Waikato (30%) 626 381 2184 71 5560 512 56 86

Taupo (20%) 249 320 2072 65 3800 365 47 57

Total 4179 5502 29,462 950 49,339 4019 559 1082 95,092 (Q=15,849)

1387 2439 10,420 323 16,745 1113 190 458

654 643 2738 131 7693 580 77 103

Waikato South preference distribution and results (quota = 15,849) Party First preference vote Remaind P, M, U, N, NZF, A er votes* Act 4179 4179 Green 5502 5502 10,327 Labour 29,462 (1 elected) ) 13,613 21,364 (1 elected) Maori Party 950 950 National 49,339 (3 elected) ) 1792 NZ First 4019 4019 Progressive 559 559 UnitedFuture 1082 1082

* It is possible in this case that intermediate preference distribution could boost NZ First or Act ahead of the Greens but there is no possibility of any of those three overtaking Labour so this scenario is bypassed as an unnecessary complication.

WAIKATO NORTH (5 MPs) Hunua (100%) Party/MMP electorate Act 2859 Green 1168 Labour 6836 Maori Party 189 National 21,032 NZ First 1516 Progressive 194 UnitedFuture 286 Total

Papakura (100%) 1967 961 9493 300 16,672 1643 254 269

Waikato (70%)

1462 890 5096 165 12,972 1196 132 285

Coromand el (10%) 161 277 949 27 1886 231 22 27

Botany (10%) 153 76 796 10 1936 68 22 22

TOTAL 6602 3372 23,170 691 54,498 4654 624 889 94500 (Q=15,750)

Waikato North preference distribution and results (quota = 15,750) Party First preference vote Remaind P, M, U, G, NZF, A er votes * Act 6602 6602 Green 3372 3372 Labour 14,947 23,170 (1 elected) 7420 Maori Party 691 691 National 16,547 (1 54,498 (3 elected) 7248 elected) NZ First 4654 4654 Progressive 624 624 UnitedFuture 889 889 *There is no way Act can overtake either L or N with preferences from Progressive, United, Maori, NZ First and Green votes, so preference distribution to Act is bypassed.

Close result in which National narrowly captures last seat to create 4-1 split

MANUKAU (5 MPs) Party/MMP Mangere (100%) electorate Act 280 Green 511 Labour 15,446 Maori Party 241 National 4120 NZ First 830 Progressive 165 UnitedFuture 218

Manurewa (100%) 633 588 13,673 331 7941 1187 276 170

Manukau East (90%)

Total 1308 1537 43,642 820 17,982 2916 778 501 69,484 (Q=11,581)

395 438 14,523 248 5921 899 337 113

Manukau preference distribution and results (quota = 11,581) Party First preference vote Remainder Act 1308 1308 Green 1537 1537 Labour 8899 43,642 (3 elected) 13,464 (1 elected) Maori Party 820 820 9601 National 6401 17,982 (1 elected) NZ First 2916 2916 Progressive 778 778 UnitedFuture 501 501

TAMAKI (5 MPs) Party/MMP electorates Act Green Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture Total

Pakuranga (100%) 2541 1273 7872 106 21,099 1231 265 338

Botany (90%) 1375 680 7162 88 17,420 610 195 198

Tamaki (85%) 2595 1734 6929 171 19,724 811 160 250

Maugnakiekie (15%) 238 288 2081 36 2235 155 50 60

6749 3975 24,044 401 60,478 2807 670 846 99,970 (Q=16,662)

Tamaki preference distribution and results (quota = 16,662) Party First preference vote Remainder M, P, U, NZF, G, A votes Act 6749 6749 Green 3975 3975 Labour 7382 14176 24,044 (1 elected) Maori Party 401 401 National 10,492 19,191 (1 60,478 (3 elected) elected) NZ First 2807 2807 Progressive 670 670 UnitedFuture 846 846

ONE TREE HILL (5 MPs) Mt Roskill Party/MMP (100%) electorate Act 1165 Green 1459 Labour 14,533 Maori Party 163 National 14,346 NZ First 955 Progressive 281 UnitedFuture 296 Total

Maungakie kie (85%) 1351 1633 11,792 203 12,668 880 284 337

New Lynn (72%)

940 1932 10,199 177 10,156 902 229 213

Mt Albert (25%) 307 962 3724 68 3117 234 61 58

Manukau East (10%) 44 49 1614 28 658 100 37 13

Total 3807 6035 41,862 639 40,945 3071 892 917 98,168 (Q=16,362)

One Tree Hill preference distribution Party First preference vote Act 3807 Green 6035 Labour 41,862 (2 elected) Maori Party 639 National 40,945 (2 elected) NZ First 3071 Progressive 892 UnitedFuture 917

and results (quota = 16,362) Remainder 3807 6035 9138 18,143 (1 elected) 639 8221 14,572 3071 892 917

CENTRAL AUCKLAND (5 MPs) Party/MMP Epsom (100%) * electorates Act 21,102 Green 2787 Labour 5112 Maori Party National 8220 NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture 163 Total * Electorate vote used

Auckland Central (100%) 1456 5446 12,166 328 14,112 806 226 168

Mt Albert (75%) 920 2615 11,171 205 9351 702 183 174

Tamaki (15%) 458 306 1223 30 3481 143 28 44 23,936 11,154 29,672 563 35,164 1651 437 549 103,126 (Q=17,188)

Central Auckland preference distribution and results (quota = 17,188) Party First preference vote Remainder U, P, M, N, NZF, A, votes Act 6748 23,936 (1 elected) Green 11,154 11,154 15,628 Labour 29,672 (1 elected) 12,484 18,742 (1 elected) Maori Party 563 563 National 35,164 (2 elected) 788 NZ First 1651 1651 Progressive 437 437 UnitedFuture 549 549

The race for the last seat is between Labour and the Greens, with Act preferences making the difference Both the star effect and tactical voting effects would have applied to the Act vote in this electorate. Neither are considered on the basis that they would probably cancel out.

WAITAKERE (6 MPs) Waitakere Party/MMP (100%) electorate Act 1067 Green 2032 Labour 12,498 Maori Party 241 National 12, 952 NZ First 1117 Progressive 225 UnitedFuture 224 Total

Helensville (100%) 2481 1814 6826 182 23,559 182 195 289

Te Atatu (100%)

1002 1270 13,171 264 13,183 1328 267 278

New Lynn (28%) 366 752 3966 69 3949 351 89 83

East Coast Bays (10%) 200 144 764 14 2168 100 21 26

Rodney (10% 250 197 784 18 2244 172 20 29

TOTAL 5366 6209 38,009 788 58,055 3250 817 929 113,423 (Q=16,203)

Waitakere preference distribution and results (quota = 16,203) Party First preference vote Remainder P, U, M, G, NZF, Act votes Act 5366 5366 Green 6209 6209 6931 Labour 8872 38,009 (2 elected) 5603 Maori Party 788 788 National 58,055 (3 elected) 9446 16,607 (1 elected) NZ First 3250 3250 Progressive 817 817 UnitedFuture 929 929 National narrowly secures the sixth seat to gain a 4-2 split.

NORTH SHORE (5 MPs) Party/MMP North Shore electorate (100%) Act 2927 Green 2590 Labour 8381 Maori Party 234 National 22,738 NZ First 1149 Progressive 165 UnitedFuture 370

Northcote (100%) East Coast Bays (90%) 1877 1800 2368 1295 10,517 6878 227 127 17,827 19,513 1118 901 299 193 348 237

Total 6604 6253 25,776 588 60,078 3168 657 955 104,081 (Q=17,347)

North Shore preference distribution and results (quota = 17,347) Party First preference vote Remainder M, P, U, NZF, G, A votes Act 6604 6604 Green 6253 6253 Labour 8429 25,776 (1 elected) 17,632 (1 elected) Maori Party 588 588 National 8037 17,053 60,078 (3 elected) NZ First 3168 3168 Progressive 657 657 UnitedFuture 955 955 Labour JUST captures the last seat for a 3-2 split to National

NORTHLAND (5 MPs) Party/MMP Northland (100%) Whangarei electorate (100%) Act 1443 1385 Green 2514 2187 Labour 8573 10,433 Maori Party 507 333 National 17,703 18,252 NZ First 2194 2246 Progressive 258 531 UnitedFuture 228 260

Rodney (90%) 2246 1772 7058 164 20,197 1550 177 259 5074 6473 26,064 1004 56,152 5990 966 747 102,470 (Q=17,079)

Northland preference distribution and results (quota = 17,079) Party First preference vote Remainde U, M, P Act r votes votes Act 5074 5074 5074* Green 6473 6473 6698 6799 Labour 10,483 10,635 26,064 (1 elected) 8985 Maori Party National NZ First Progressive 1004 56,152 (3 elected) 5990 966 1004 4915 5990 966 5700 6193 9759 6954

G votes

NZF votes

16,618 10,302 7225

20,880 (1 elected) 13,264

UnitedFuture 747 747 * No votes transferred to Act as obvious Act will not stay ahead of National simplifies calculation

SOUTHERN MAORI (5 MPs) Party/MMP Te Tai Tonga electorates (100%)* Act Green 2076 Labour 7962 Maori Party 9011 National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture Total * Electorate vote used

Te Tai Hauauru (100%)* 5589 13,406

Ikaroa Rawhiti (100%)* 1070 9927 8282 3146 23,478 30,699

57,323 (Q=9554)

Southern Maori preference distribution and results (quota = 9554) Party First preference vote Remaind er Act Green 3146 Labour 23,478 (2 elected) Maori Party 30,699 (3 elected) National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture All seats allocated on first preferences

NORTHERN MAORI (7 MPs) Party/MMP Waiariki electorates (100%)* Act Green Labour Maori Party National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture Total

HaurakiWaikato (100%)* 9349 8461

Tamaki Makauru (100%)* 931 5336 12,876

Te Tai Tokerau (100%)* 680 5711 12,019

Total 680 931 26,365 46,137

5969 12, 781

74,113 (Q=9265)

Northern Maori preference distribution and results (quota = 9265) Party First preference vote Remainder A, G votes* Act 680 680 Green 931 931 Labour 7835 8505 26,365 (2 elected) Maori Party 9077 46,137 (4 elected) 10,017 (1 elected) National NZ First Progressive UnitedFuture * No preference tree is provided for this step. It is presumed these votes split evenly between Labour and Maori Party.

Summary of electorate results

STV electorate MP s 7 5 3 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Act Green Labour Maori National NZ First Progressi ve UnitedFut ure

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Northern Maori Southern Maori Southland Otago Canterbury-West Coast Christchurch South Christchurch North Top of the South Wellington Hutt-Porirua Manawatu West Central Hawkes BayWairarapa East Cape Kaimai Waikato South Waikato North Tamaki

19 20 21 22 23 24 TOT AL

Manukau Central Auckland One Tree Hill Waitakere North Shore Northland

5 5 5 6 5 5 12 0

48

58

Analysis
Outcome: National/Act United hold 60 seats, Labour/Prg/Green/NZ First 52 seats, Maori Party 8 seats PARTY VOTE% National 44.9 58 Labour 34.0 48 Maori 2.4 8 Green 6.7 Act 3.7 1 United 0.9 Progressive 0.9 1 NZ First 4.1 1 Gallagher Index: 7.1 SEATS SEATS% 48.33 40 6.67 2 1.67 0.83 1 0.83 0.83 0.83

Underperformance of National National beats Labour by 10.9% in vote share, but by only 8.3% in seats. Despite National/Act/United winning 49.5% of the vote to other parties 48.1 the two blocks get equal seats. Why? Essentially because electorates are based on electoral population, not on votes. Labour wins 4 seats in Manukau on a quota of only 11,581, while Nationals 4 seats in neighbouring Tamaki come at a quota of 16,662. Labour wins 4 of the Maori seats at quotas of 9554 and 9265, and the Maori Party wins seven seats at these prices, while National gets none so cheap. Sensitive dependence on boundaries The STV electorates described above have been devised with careful attention to geography, community of interest and other relevant criteria from the Electoral Act in addition to the set mathematical formulae. Nevertheless they are only a might-have-been. Someone else might have come up with a different set of solutions to those equations. While some electorates would have to be pretty close to those described, there are other cases where radically alternatives are possible. This can affect the results. For example, in the upper South Island there is a 5-member Canterbury-Westland electorate and a 4-member Topof-the-South electorate. It is perfectly feasible for this to be reversed, with a 4-member Canterbury electorate and a 5-member Top-of-the-South-West Coast electorate. Instead of being split 3-2 and 2-2, the alternative would probably be split 3-1 and 3-2, meaning one more seat for National without any change in the votes. Small boundary changes in other marginal seats could also change results. Marginal electorates A near-necessary feature of STV is that with only 24 electorates there can only be a few real marginal seats (which exacerbates sensitivity to electorate boundaries). In this model there are only four really close results: Otago where the Green Party narrowly pips Labour for the last seat (2N, 2L, 1G) Waikato North where National narrowly pips Labour for the last seat (4N, 1L) Waitakere where National narrowly pips Labour for the last seat (4N, 2L) North Shore where Labour narrowly pips National for the last seat (3N, 2L) Special factors

There are several electorates where special factors are clearly at play in the 2008 result Central Auckland (Rodney Hide) Wellington (Peter Dunne) Kaimai (Winston Peters) Christchurch South (Jim Anderton) This means that the results ascribed to those electorates (especially Wellington) rest on shaky foundations. I think the results given are what probably would have happened, but these results are wide open for debate. Errors I acknowledge that this modelling probably contains mathematical mistakes, certainly contains many arbitrary assumptions and shortcuts have often been taken in calculations. I am optimistic, however, that any errors introduced are non-significant. The work required to eliminate known sources of possible error is not feasible for me to undertake (it would probably multiply the time taken to complete the work by a factor of ten), and would be essentially trivial in the face of large and irreducible sources of uncertainty such as how Act Party preferences would divide between NZ First and the Green Party. Stephen Russell, November 2011