NCAI2011, 13-14 May 2011, Jaipur, India

International Journal of Soft Computing and Engineering (IJSCE) ISSN: 2231-2307, Volume-1, Issue-NCAI2011, June 2011

Tourism Crisis Evaluation Using Fuzzy Artificial Neural network

Ram Kumar, Gunja Varshney
Abstract The evaluation of tourism crisis would have significant meanings to encounter crisis and recover from it, also can be served as decision reference to relevant managers and officials. Currently researchers usually make the evaluation of tourism crisis on the aid of complex indexes system, surplus researchers subjective judgment. On considering the characteristics of tourism crisis, many variables cant be easily quantified, thus we adopt new method to evaluate tourism crisis. On combining fuzzy logics with back propagation algorithms to build Fuzzy neural networks, the model enjoys the advantages both in processing vague and uncertainty information and in good learning abilities. On analyzing the logics of fuzzy theory and back propagation artificial networks, and on the aid of Data Processing System v9.5 software, the implementation of fuzzy neural networks in tourism crisis evaluation is also be made to show the fitness of fuzzy neural networks in tourism crisis evaluation. Keywords- tourism crisis, fuzzy, fuzzy neural networks, crisis evaluation. Back propagation artificial networks, fuzzy logics

decision reference to relevant managers and officials. This paper aims to make tourism crisis evaluation. Although there existed several evaluation method, such as Delphi Method, grey system etc, adopting artificial network to make tourism crisis evaluation is also valuable on considering the extinct advantages of flexible, nonlinear data treatment etc. This paper is organized as follows. The next section provides an overview of previous research that has focused on tourism crisis evaluation. Section 3 proposed the fuzzy artificial neural network evaluation method and corresponding principles. Section 4 describes the concrete realization of this method. The final section discusses the usage and improvement direction as well as managerial implications.

II. LITERATURE REVIEW Currently researchers usually make the evaluation of tourism crisis on the aid of complex indexes system, surplus researchers subjective judgment. The reason partly lies in the properties of tourism crisis including the diversity of crisis incentives, the sudden occurrence. Besides, researchers also find that it is rather difficult to quantify relevant ambiguous factors such as tourist psychological response and the interaction among tourism chains.

I. INTRODUCTION Tourism crisis refers to the unexpected cases which can affect tourists confidence towards destination and interrupt the normal running of tourism enterprises. As to the carry out of tourism activities need to across different areas, accompanying the characteristics of high association with other industries, the development of tourism industry manifests strong dependence on surrounding circumstances. In recent years the global tourism industry has experienced many crisis and disasters including terrorist attacks, political instability, economic recession, bio security threats and natural disasters, such as Mumbai 26 November, US September 11, SARS disease, Lhasa violence, Wenchuan strong earthquake etc. The shocks caused by these unexpected cases impinge on the normal operation of local tourism as well as economic and social life. The evaluation of tourism crisis determine whether relevant enterprises, industry organization and government can adopt effective measures to control the spread of negative effect, to minimize losses, to clarify the direction of improvement. Thus the effective evaluation of tourism crisis would have significant meanings to encounter crisis and recover from it, also can be served as
Manuscript received March 26, 2011. Ram Kumar, M. Tech Scholar from RKDF Institute of science & Technology, Bhopal , (India)e-mail: hr.coet@gmail.com Gunja Varshney, is with Sobhasaria Engineering college ,sikar Rajsthan(India)e-mail: gunja.cs@gmail.com

A. Multi-Variables Analysis Crisis evaluation on cultural events and organizations adopting the methods of multi-variables analysis[1]. The evaluation considers the following factors including tourist involving activities, the speed of crisis spreading, tourist psychological factors, the probability of crisis etc. then make wholesome evaluation based on subjective judgment. In this multivariable analysis of tourism crisis includes main relevant factors, but the defect lies in the overwhelming subjective judgment which was constrained by experts acknowledgement and acquired information.

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Tourism Crisis Evaluation Using Fuzzy Artificial Neural network

B. Cross Impact Analysis and Vulnerability Analysis Cross impact analysis is a kind of quantitative method, from which we can determine the correlation between relevant factors, to verify whether the correlation is strong enough and continuous. According to this method, we can make tourism crisis evaluation as follows. Firstly, we enumerate the key environmental factors that inducing tourism crisis. Next we ask experts to make evaluation on the above factors effect. Then we sum up separate evaluation outcomes to clarify the wholesome influence made by tourism crisis. cross impact analysis of tourism crisis, in which the key influential factors inducing tourism crisis include tourist death, tourist financial loss, confidence frustrating, tourism consumption and investment reduce etc.[2] the relevant influencing area involve economic, political, law, technology, environment area. Then the detailed evaluation outcomes were listed to clarify whether the influence was positive or not. On the basis of cross impact analysis, vulnerability analysis further involves the probability of crisis to improve the tourism crisis evaluation. On vulnerability analysis we can determine whether the reaction to tourism crisis is urgent or not, also we can acknowledge the wholesome influence made by critical factors. The following table was adopted by US Federal Emergency Management Agency to make vulnerability analysis. The cross impact and vulnerability analysis of tourism crisis can help to determine the critical factors and influence, but as to the relevant influential factors and area were subjectively selected, the evaluation outcome would be partially dependent on the abundant of acquired information and evaluation experts capability. C. Crisis Shock Analysis Tourism crisis shock analysis according to the crucial characteristics of crisis[3]. The analysis was as follows. From the analysis result we can see that the shock of tourism crisis was determined by crisis own characteristics, including the source of crisis, influential scope, frequency and inducting factors.

Fig.1 Back propagation Artificial Networks B. Fuzzy Neural Networks(FNNs) FNN is more adept to our research, because many variables of tourism crisis cant be easily quantified. Simply speaking, FNNs combine fuzzy logic with neural networks, thus enjoy the advantages both in processing vague and uncertainty information and in good learning abilities [4]. The FNNs concludes two parts, Fuzzy mode and FNNs. The function of fuzzy mode is to process the input variables with fuzzy logic, then turn to the following neural algorithms. The structure of FNNs is as follows: Fuzzy Mode

FNNs

III. PRINCIPLES OF BP ARTIFICIAL NETWORKS AND FUZZYLOGIC A. BP Artificial Network Back Propagation Artificial Neural Networks is one of the most widely used neural networks, which was a single direction multilayer neural network containing input layer nodes, output layer nodes and one or more layers of hidden nodes. Two different algorithms are included in the learning process, one is forward propagation, and the other is back propagation. In the former one, the input signal was dealt with step by step and transferred to output later, the condition of each neural node only affect the next layer. If the expected output cant be acquired, then it would turn to back propagation, transferring the error signal back and adjusting the weigh of each neural node to minimize the error signal. The structure of back Propagation network is shown in fig.
Fig.2 Structure of Fuzzy Artificial Neural Networks

IV. IMPLEMENTATION OF FNNS IN TOURISM CRISIS EVALUATION In this part we make empirical research to implement FNNs in tourism crisis evaluation. Firstly we make fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on relevant tourism crisis. Based on tourism crisis evaluation index system, On considering the lack of time and fund, part of second hand data was adopted.[5] made tourism crisis evaluation based on fuzzy theory and grey systems theory, ten tourism routes were adopted as samples to evaluate relative crisis degree. Tourism crisis evaluation index system was brought forward, involving the aspects of communication, security, health, weather, lodging, route, medical assistance. The evaluation outcome

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NCAI2011, 13-14 May 2011, Jaipur, India

International Journal of Soft Computing and Engineering (IJSCE) ISSN: 2231-2307, Volume-1, Issue-NCAI2011, June 2011 evaluation, introducing the principles of fuzzy logics and BP artificial networks, and makes empirical analysis on the implementation of FNNs. The empirical outcome shows that FNNs can fit and forecast tourism crisis satisfying, adopting FNN in tourism crisis evaluation is adept. The conclusion of this paper would also have active meanings for the quantitative research of tourism crisis.

was as Table II shows, which was adopted as the input of FNNs. The training of neural network was made on the aid of DPS v9.5 software. In DPS data processing system, data need to be defined firstly thus the system can recognize [6]. The samples of R1 to R8 were chosen to be training samples, the R9 to R10 were chosen to be testing samples. Then relevant parameters should be determined. On the guidance of basic principles of DPS parameters design, we choose: The hidden layer to be 1 The node of input layer to be 14 The minimize teaching speed to be 0.1 The dynamic reference to be 0.6 The SIGMOID reference to be 0.9 The allowed error to be 0.0001 The maximum iterative times to be 1000 The node of first hidden layer to be 7 On performing the directions, the following outcome was acquired.

REFERENCES
[1] Babyn, C., Bell, J.W.,Monk, J., Montgomery ,K.W. The Impact of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Crisis on Cultural Events and Organizations in Ontario (Final Report). March, 2004, Ontario Region of the Department of Canadian Heritage. [2] Glaeper, Dirk. Crisis Management in the Tourism Industry. Oxford: Butterworth Heinemann,2003. [3] Gurhan Aktas & Ebru A.Gunlu. Crisis Management in Tourist Destination. In William F. Theobald. Global Tourism (3rd edition). Elsevier: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2005. [4] Liu Puyin, LiHongxing. Fuzzy Neural Network Theory and Application[Z]. Baker& Taylor Books, 2004, 201-212. [5] Xi Jianchao, Liu Haolong, Qi Xiaobo, Wu Pu. The Risk Assessment Model of Tourism Destination-Taking ten Adventure Tourism Lines as a Case Study[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, May, 2007, 370-375. [6] Tang Qiyi, Feng Guangming. Statistical Analysis and DPS Data Processing Systems[Z]. Science Press, 2007, 511-515.

Fig -2 The fitness of neural network

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This paper was supported by Henan Educational Committee social science project

The following table summarizes relevant data, including the fitness value and true value of training samples, the forecasting value and true value of testing samples. The outcomes show that the fitness of history data and the forecasting of testing data are satisfying; the implementation of FNNs in tourism crisis evaluation is rather adept TABLE I. OUTCOMES OF FNN TRAINING AND FORECASTING

Route Training Output True value Route Training Output True value

1
0.3265 0.33388

2
0.3277 0.32363

3
0.4196 0.41967

4
0.3501 0.34965

5
0.4414 0.44122

6
0.5721 0.57667

7
0.4257 0.42569

8
0.3646 0.36466

9
0.3734* 0.38234

10
0.7781* 0.77793

V. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATION The implementation of FNNs would be a new adept method to evaluate tourism crisis more objectively and scientifically. In this paper we analyze the fitness of FNNs in tourism crisis

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Tourism Crisis Evaluation Using Fuzzy Artificial Neural network

TABLE- II. Crisis shock analysis

Comm unicat ion

R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

3.024 3.24 3.456

Comm unicat ion conve nienc e 3.219 6.786

crim e

Local attitu d e

Infecti ous disor d ers

Dinin g healt h y

Lodgi ng safet y

Safe g uard

weath er

disas t er

affili a te

servi c e

Emer gency assist a nce

Medic al assist a nce

Crisis evaluat i on

0.26
0.3

4.76
4.2

5.655
2.958

2.244
2.176

2.451
2.223

1.886
1.656

8.858
7.622

4.83
4.968

2.116
2.668

2.07
0.966

2.604
2.604

1.988
1.775

0.33388
0.32363

4.032 4.896 5.184 4.464 4.176 3.816 6.12

7.134 4.611 7.482 7.743 7.395 6.69 7.569 7.83

0.34 0.76 1.12 1.2 .05 0.52 0.46 0.92

3.528 4.368 3.808 3.808 4.368 3.864 4.256 3.64

2.697 5.829 4.872 3.045 4.872 6.786 6.96 4.02

3.05 3.264 4.556 4.42 4.08 3.672 3.808 5.1

2.565 3.021 3.876 3.99 3.306 2.622 2.565 3.99

1.84 2.254 2.852 3.22 2.576 2.07 1.748 3.588

7.004 5.974 6.489 5.356 7.725 8.858 9.167 3.914

5.382 3.795 3.864 3.726 4.485 5.244 5.382 2.346

2.392 3.956 5.52 5.152 4.232 5.152 4.416 6.624

1.564 2.116 2.852 2.99 3.082 2.438 2.3 2.99

2.976 5.828 7.192 8.432 7.068 5.332 5.208 9.672

3.159 3.408 3.834 3.763 3.266 3.408 2.414 4.544

0.41967 0.34965 0.44122 0.57667 0.42569 0.36466 0.38234 0.77793

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