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World Development, Vol. 24, No. 3. pp.

449460, 1996
Pergamon Copyright 0 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd
Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved
0305-750x/96 $15.00 + 0.00
0305-750x(95)00156-5

R&D and Technology Policy in NICs as


Learning Processes

MORRIS TEUBAL”
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel

Summary. - This paper presents a dynamic, learning perspective to research and development activity
and to policies promoting these activities and technological development more generally.
The basic idea is that successful penetration of research and development (R&D) in a newly industr-
alized country (NIC) context is a process involving extensive learning including collective learning
(“learning by others”); multidisciplinary learning (both technoeconomic and managerial/organizational);
and learning which is cumulative through time. This is especially so at an early (“infant”) phase of diffu-
sion of this process through the economy.
A dynamic view of externalities and market failures is presented, one that provides the basis for a
catalytic perspective of technological policy. This perspective is based on the distinction between an
infant and a mature phase of policy, where massive-flexible-search oriented support in the early phase
sets the base for endogenization/routinization of R&D in the economy and for the possibility of drastic
reductions in government support for traditional forms of R&D in the later phase. Copyright 0 1996
Elsevier Science Ltd

I. INTRODUCTION ing which is cumulative through time.2 This is espe-


cially so at an early (“infant”) phase of diffusion of
This paper presents a dynamic, learning perspec- this process through the economy. It follows almost
tive to research and development (R&D) activity and inevitably that widespread, even pervasive, extemali-
to policies promoting these activities and technologi- ties as well as other market failures are also present.
cal development more generally. The emerging cat- Thus once R&D becomes a critical issue for NICs,
alytic policy perspective may be a useful one for e.g., immediately after liberalization of foreign trade
newly industrialized countries NIC’s reaching the as in the case of the Latin American countries men-
stage where active promotion of R&D becomes a cen- tioned above or after exhaustion of the benefits
tral issue in the national policy agenda, as it was with derived from overwhelming reliance on imported
Israel in the early 1970s (Teubal, 1984); Taiwan and technology and backward engineering as in the case of
Korea in the early 1980s (or late 1970s - see Kim, the countries of Southeast Asia, there are strong rea-
1993 for Korea; Hou and Gee, 1993 for Taiwan) and sons for the government to actively promote this
Chile, Mexico and Argentina in the early 1990s activity.
(Teubal, 1992, 1993). A salient feature of these poli- The market failures and other institutional con-
cies and of the underlying technological and industrial straints underpinning government support to techno-
policy framework more generally, is recognition of logical development, are not however, static. Some of
the importance of neutral technological promotion the learning processes become exhausted while new
schemes, a feature which is only recently becoming mechanisms or institutions endogenously arise which
widely recognized.’ Moreover this framework is per- enhance the private appropriation of the social bene-
fectly consistent with macroeconomic policies and fits from innovation. Examples of exhaustion are
other policies designed to reduce the scope of govem- “learning to identify, select, and manage innovation
ment intervention in economies where such interven-
tion was massive and across the board in the past.
*This paper has benetitted from discussions with C. Abeledo,
The basic idea is that successful penetration of
R. Galli, M. Justman, J. Katz, D. Kaufmann, R. Mayorga,
R&D in a NIC context is a process involving exten- H. Pack, S. Radosevic, E. Steinmueller, K. Smith, B. Toren,
sive learning including collective learning (“learning P. Wegloop, and E. Zuscovitch. Currently Morris Teubal is
by others”); multidisciplinary learning (both techno- affiliated to the Industrial Development Policy Group. The
economic and managerial/organizational); and leam- Jerusalem Institute. Final revision accepted: August 2, 1995.

449
4.50 WORLD DEVELOPMENT

projects” particularly as regards to an emerging class bone of technology-support promotion systems.


of “routine” process and product improvements.3 The basic problem is lack of a policy framework
Thus while the technological knowledge generated by linking theory and actual policy making. The policy
R&D may continue to be relevant to firms beyond framework is appreciative theory in Nelson and
those executing these activities, the organizational Winter’s sense, but theory nonetheless (Nelson and
and management knowledge will become increas- Winter, 1982; Nelson, 1994). The catalytic frame-
ingly diffused.4 Examples of mechanisms for better work is one possible element of an overall policy
appropriation of benefits include the reinforcement of framework for R&D or even industrial-technological
patent laws (e.g., in Mexico, lately) and the protection policy more generally.8
of utility models (Japan and other Southeast Asian One important piece of research about R&D policy
countries). The joint outcome of these processes is a in contexts somewhat different from those we have in
reduction in the scope of market failure and other mind are the studies on the US economy conducted by
institutional constraints to research and development, Nelson and associates (see Nelson, 1982, 1983). In
at least for the emerging “species” of routine projects.5 these studies Nelson presents the elements of a policy
The dynamic view of externalities and market fail- framework for supporting R&D effectively in differ-
ures mentioned above provides the basis for a cat- ent sectorial contexts. He asks the very important
alytic perspective of technological policy. This per- question of whether market failure analysis is by itself
spective is based on the distinction between an infant capable of explaining the distribution of R&D support
and a mature phase of policy, where massive-flexible- across sectors. The answer is clearly no. Moreover,
search oriented support in the early phase sets the base one obstacle to the implementation of policies is
for endogenization/routinization of R&D in the econ- knowledge about which projects should be supported
omy and for the possibility of drastic reductions in (the information may not be available from firms).
government support for traditional forms of R&D in Other reasons for the weak explanatory power of mar-
the later phase. Thus subsidization today is not eternal ket failure analysis have also been presented. The sig-
which is important for the essential market-forces ori- nificance of his work for our context is, first, that tech-
entation of economic policy in general; and moreover nological policy is very difficult to formulate and even
it sets the base for the restructuring of government more to implement; and second, that this requires a
support in the direction of more sophisticated techno- conceptual framework which goes beyond the usual
logical effort, e.g., in favor of consortia of firms per- Arrovian context of market-failure analysis.
forming precompetitive, generic R&D.6 The above framework of Nelson’s is insufficient to
analyze our problem for a number of reasons: (a)
implicitly at least, market failures are assumed to be
2. SALIENT FEATURES OF THE NEW static rather than dynamic; (b) external economies
PERSPECTIVE seem to include first and foremost technological
knowledge rather than the management and organiza-
The above description of the R&D process and the tional knowledge mentioned above; (c) explicitly
accompanying discussion of market failures stand in probably but certainly implicitly the policy frame-
contrast to the usual way of theorizing about R&D and work is one of selectivity-it should identify projects
of thinking about policy. Economists have not yet with clear market failures as a condition for support
developed a conceptual framework for technological since not all projects are associated with such failures
policy - one mediating between the general, Arrow- (market failures would not seem to be pervasive in the
type justifications for government intervention in context discussed by Nelson). As we will see the two
invention/R&D and the actual implementation of poli- last problems are related and both are linked to an
cies.’ aspect of the pervasiveness of market failures (for per-
The formal model-building approaches developed vasiveness of market failures, see Nelson, 1988). My
after Arrow (see, for example, Stoneman, 1982) are presumption is that once we recognize the widespread
clearly miles away from concrete policy formulation importance of organizational/management learning in
and implementation. A good example of the underde- connection with the emerging R&D activities of NICs
velopment of thinking about technological policy is (a nonproblem in the United States which Nelson ana-
the World Bank report explaining the successful expe- lyzed given that R&D has been performed systemati-
riences of eight Asian economies starting (Japan, the cally at least after WWII if not since the beginning of
Gang of Four and Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia the century) then the associated widespread extemali-
- see World Bank, 1993). In this report not only tech- ties would justify a neutral rather than selective sup-
nological policy but industrial-technological policy as port for this activity.9
a whole is identified with selective support, particu- The perspective developed in this paper presumes
larly of infant industries but also the financial sector that the R&D process involves aspects of dynamic
(World Bank, 1993, pp. 87-90). There is almost no scale economies or dynamic increasing returns (DIR)
discussion of the neutral policies forming the back- such as those appearing in the literature of path depen-
R&D AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY 451

dency including that analyzing the selection of a par- ing the possibility of exhaustion of learning opportu-
ticular variant of a new technology over other compet- nities; (iv) explicit consideration of institutional
ing variants (for a survey of this literature see Nelson, adjustments and adaptations to allow for full-fledged
1994; see also Arthur, 1988; David, 1992). The condi- diffusion of R&D into the economy; (v) explicit con-
tions for success in the routinization or diffusion of sideration of learning by government as far as the pol-
R&D within the economy could, therefore, be ana- icy is concerned, including the whole issue of policy
lyzed in terms of the conditions for existence and capabilities (see Teubal, 1994a).
exploitation of DIR. Nelson (1984) has identified Feature (i) implies pervasive externalities, at least
three such conditions appearing in the relevant litera- during the first 5- 10 years of the systematic effort of
ture -cumulative technologies, (user) network exter- government to introduce and diffuse R&D/innovation
nalities and parallel development/production of com- into the economy. This would be specific to NIC con-
plementary components or parts of the system. texts and would explain the nature of policies support-
The counterpart of the DIR conditions-cumulative ing R&D, at least initially, in this setting particularly
technology and network externalities in the use of a the centrality of the neutrality principle (Teubal,
new technology - is success in the collective-learn- 1984); and the different prescription that would follow
ing process taking place in economies who enter the for an advanced country setting (see the works of
R&D (or the innovation) phase. The meaning of “col- Nelson mentioned above). Thus the requirements for
lective learning” is not only the fact that R&D of firm specific project information so much emphasized by
i at t benefits firm j at t but also that the experience of Nelson are much lower since whatever project you
the past is relevant for the future, i.e. that there are no support there always are likely to be significant exter-
breaks or discrete configuration changes as far as the nalities, managerial and others. The second logical
organization and management of R&D is concerned. relationship among the assumptions mentioned above
The possibility of building a network of “users of relates to (iii): the exhaustion of learning potential
R&D and users of R&D promotion incentives” very which (together with iv) would imply in some sense
much depends on the capacity for the government the need for reducing government support at a later,
agency in charge of the promotion to become a “net- mature, stage of the policy (all of this under a back-
work entrepreneur” (Teubal, Yinnon and Zusovitch, ground of a strong learning process that propelled the
1991).‘” economy to the mature stage). Thus the stage is set for
The counterpart to the third element - comple- catalytic policies and the existence of a technology
mentary activities related to the overall system within policy cycle. Salient feature (v) further reinforces the
which a new technology should operate - is market- desirability of neutrality at the early stage of policy -
building and institutional change (see Teubal, 1994a, given the fact that selectivity requires much more
1994b). Both may also require active government sup- information about projects and more capabilities
port. Market-building would refer to the services - within government. It also reinforces the trend to
technoeconomic, financial and management - asso- selectivity at the mature stage - not only for
ciated with the R&D process or with innovation. A “demand” reasons, i.e., the fact that many projects
number of policies could be directed to generating and then will be undertaken without government support;
perfecting these markets and these policies are com- but also for “supply” reasons namely the capabilities
plementary to the actual policies directly promoting accumulated by government through the infant phase
firm-based R&D. The end result of a successful of the technology policy cycle.
process of introducing and diffusing R&D into the Finally the notion of routines as applied to firms
economy would be relatively well-functioning mar- performing R&D/innovation, while not logically nec-
kets for these services. This would be a dynamic essary, significantly enhances both the initial difficul-
counterpart and a path leading to materialization of ties of implanting R&D/innovation within the system
Marshallian external economies. and the subsequent endogenous routinization of these
I now summarize the main elements of the altema- activities (it may even be said that DIR are reinforced
tive view of R&D and technological policy: (i) a when firm’s behavior is largely determined by rou-
broader definition of externalities than that usually tines which do not easily change). The distinction
associated with technological or pecuniary extemali- between policy phases will be made even sharper than
ties - multidisciplinary externalities which include what they would be otherwise.
an explicit management and organizational compo-
nent; (ii) The notion of “routine” as put forward by the
behavioralist theory of the firm and refined and inte- 3. THE TECHNOLOGY POLICY CYCLE AND
grated by Nelson and Winter - particularly as far as ITS INFANT PHASE
new search and R&D routines which incumbent NIC
firms must adopt to assure an on-going process of Tables 1 and 2 present the main features of the
technological development; (iii) a dynamic view of infant, experimental and mature phases of an “ideal”
learning about R&D/innovation through time includ- firm-based, R&D/innovation promotion policy. Each
452 WORLD DEVELOPMENT

Table 1. Technology policy cycle - rhe infant stage

Obstacles, market failures Policy approach and policy


Objectives/targets and policy constraints components

-Widespread endogenization -Lack of good R&D projects - Learning approach: government agency
of the R&D process becoming an N3 network entrepreneur;
- Pervasive market failures generating relevant project taxonomies;
-Collective, multidisciplinary codification of policy experience
& cumulative learning process -Absence of R&D (and search)
routines at firms -Massive and flexible support
-Achieving “critical mass”
of projects - Underdeveloped R&D consultancyl - Mix between finance/monetary
advisory services and financial incentives and institutional/market-
- Developing policy capabilities services markets building policies

-Defining the specifics of -Partially inadequate institutional - Predominance of neutrality in


firm based incentives framework incentives/finance

- Inadequate policy approach and - Proactive policies (project generation)


policy capabilities by government
-Investments in new policy capabilities
(training; staff work, etc.)

Table 2. policy cycle: the mature stage


Technology

Obstacles, market failures Policy approach and policy


Objectives/targets and policy constraints components

Objective:
-Restructuring of policy -Budget constraint

Target:
- Reduced support for (“new” - Political constraints (e.g., political
category of) routine projects clout of large firms)

- Stimulating shift to “complex” - Inadequate capabilities to identify -More selectivity and less universality
R&D relevant market failures and in incentives
associated R&D project categories
-Supporting new classes of
sophisticated technological effort - Scarcity of R&D personnel
(e.g., precompetitive, cooperative
(projects) -High transaction costs

- Obstacles, market failures and


new categories of
constraints associated with new
projects
types of R&D (infant stage)

phase has its specific objectives and targets (column rather that of restructuring the R&D promotion policy
1); a specific set of obstacles, market failures and (both in terms of reduced support of routine R&D and
policy constraints (column 2); and a policy approach in terms of encouraging firms to undertake more com-
and set of policy components of its own (column 3). plex and high risk/high expected return projects).”
The differences in objectives and targets are central: The assumption underlying this view of the mature
while during the infant stage the objective is to pave phase objectives is that take-off or endogenization of
the way for widespread endoenization of the R&D the R&D process has already taken place as a result of
process in the economy-first and foremost by assur- successful policies at the infant stage; and that a set of
ing a collective, cumulative and multidisciplinary routine projects has emerged, one where learning has
learning process in R&D (which in turn might require to some extent been exhausted and where significant
the execution of at least a critical mass of “good” improvements in appropriability have reduced the gap
R&D projects) - the objective of the mature phase is between social and private profitability. Notice also
R&D AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY 453

that a target of policy at the infant stage is develop- Market-building is relevant for only a small
ment of capabilities to undertake the restructuring fraction of the R&D process itself - for numerous
required at the later phase while increasingly applying reasons the penetration of R&D into the economy is
selective rather than neutral criteria of support. done first and foremost by user organizations rather
One of the significant differences between the two than by specialized suppliers of knowledge (this may
phases relates to the policy constraints facing decision increasingly be less true due to the emergence of
makers. Under an ideal scheme such as the one being world markets for certain types of technology, a result
traced here a real budget constraint does not exist at of the process of globalization).‘” Parts of the R&D
the infant stage since there is a generalized absence of process within firms, however, may be done by out-
good projects and of associated search and manage- side specialists, e.g., the design of a specialized chip
ment/organizational routines. Thus essentially any for an instrument, certain types of research on
“good” project (and the criteria for “goodness” must materials; etc. These providers of knowledge should
be absolute rather than relative here and quite flexible then be included within the market-building efforts of
and general at that ) must receive government support. the government agency in charge of policy.
This is not the case at the mature phase where a con- Some attention should be given to the policy itself
stant flow of privately profitable projects continu- - the approach and its components - at the infant
ously emerges from the system such that, at infant- stage. It is important to provide unambiguous, sus-
stage levels of support, there would be “excess tained and massive support of good projects while -
demand” for government funds (rather than excess as mentioned above - simultaneously build markets
supply), i.e, the budget constraint would be effective. and adapt institutions. The approach should be neutral
At this later phase however, the political clout of large (or include a significant component of neutrality) both
firms may hinder the restructuring of the funds toward because of enormous uncertainty of where market
the higher risk and new types of projects and activities failures are located and because of the presumption
(such as precompetitive, collaborative consortia that these are pervasive (see above). Moreover, a
rather than single-firm product/process development). proactive policy stimulating the creation of new pro-
Reduction in support of routine projects, of course, is jects should be adopted.
a result of the fact that while pervasive market failures As mentioned, a central aspect of the policy
characterize the infant stage, these are localized approach at the infant phase of the technology policy
within particular groups of projects (more sophisti- cycle is the promotion of learning both within the
cated, and larger projects; and different kinds of pro- recipient firms and within the government agency
jects altogether, requiring additional routines within executing the policy. This involves numerous aspects,
firms) at the mature phase. Correspondingly, starting from an awareness of the impossibility of
enhanced selectivity and probably a set of criteria and planning (“learning,” in contrast to “planning” - a
policy instruments catering to different classes of pro- desirable feature put forth by Imai et al., 1988 in the
jects should substitute the largely massive and neutral context of innovation activity within firms); and a
support of the infant stage. nonlinear model of the innovation-promoting policy
Two additional points should be mentioned in con- process (in parallel to the nonlinear or interactive fea-
nection with the infant stage prior to discussing in ture of the innovation process imbedded in the so-
some more detail the nature of the policies imple- called innovation or product cycle, see Kline and
mented: first, the need to promote and build markets; Rosenberg, 1989).
and second, institutional adaptations. I will expand on A second crucial aspect of the “learning approach’
the former. Building markets refers first and foremost mentioned above is assuring the existence of a “collec-
to markets of services supporting R&D and innova- tive” learning process which first and foremost implies
tion - consultancy and advisory services; tests and creating the conditions for the sharing of experience
analysis, and financial services. These markets proba- among “users” of the promotion schemes (particularly
bly do not exist initially where sources of supply are nonproprietary information and experience such as that
fragmented or non-existed and where the “needs” for associated with search, project selection and innovation
such services on the part of R&D performers are not management). More forcefully, the government agency
yet well articulated. A full-fledged R&D performing should attempt to disseminate widely “nonproprietary”
sector will certainly benefit from such markets; and technoeconomic information generated by project
vice versa, i.e., a mutual or reciprocal externalities sit- experience. We may visualize, in this connection, a sit-
uation. The associated potential coordination failure uation where nonproprietary experience from firm i
may justify policies which not not only promote R&D would, through the government agency, flow to firm j.
but also, in parallel, stimulate the building and per- The agency may become a network Private Branch
fecting of such markets.QThe possibility of this being Exchange (see Teubal, Yinnon and Zuscovitch, 1991)
the desirable course of action is greater at the infant performing the switching function within a particular
than at a later stage of “diffusion” of R&D in the type of network: that linking the agency with the popu-
economy. lation of recipient tirm~.~~
454 WORLD DEVELOPMENT

This learning function should also include an reductions in the rate of subsidization (or the share of
attempt at generating relevant taxonomies of projects incentives over R&D costs) during the first five or
and firms which may enhance fitness or successful more years of implementation of the program.r7 Major
coupling between the two (while assuring that know- changes are, however, expected at the mature phase in
ledge about this becomes “common knowledge” as far connection with the restructuring needs of the policy.
as possible!). Finally, the long-term policy needs An excellent example is that of Korea (Kim, 1993)
require creating policy capabilities both through for- where the share of government was reduced during
mal training efforts and through extensive staff work 1971-87. Additional examples of reductions in the
involving mapping of technology needs and market share of government-financed R&D in total business
failures; and by identifying the conditions for com- enterprise R&D for OECD countries is shown in
mercial success in innovation in various areas and Table 3.r*
industrial branches. It is clear not only that policy I will attempt to trace three alternative profiles of
should not be associated too closely with pecuniary government support to R&D through time, each one
incentives exclusively; but that in addition to institu- linked to a particular set of external and domestic
tional adaptations, both market building and extensive characteristics. The specific profiles of government
“search and information-gathering activities” should support through time will depend on at least three
be undertaken. major factors: the extent by which firms’ R&D at the
infant staged focused or not on very dynamic techno-
logical and market areas; whether a dynamic group of
4. PROFILES OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT firms has emerged who is poised to enter a new phase
THROUGH TIME - THE MATURE PHASE in R&D - one directed to larger, more risky and
potentially more profitable projects (we term this
In the implementation of the R&D promotion pol- emerging new category of R&D as “complex”); and
icy in its infant phase government support (or subsi- whether full or partial policy restructuring is taking
dization) of R&D might have to represent at least 50% place - where full restructuring involves both reduc-
of R&D project costs. This seems to be a reasonable ing support to routine projects and increasing support
division of risk and of finance between the govem-
ment and the business sector -reflecting, on the one
hand, the need to provide incentives; and on the other, Table 3. Share of business enterprise R&D financed by
reasonable assurance of avoiding “moral hazard.” It government @ercentage)*
also reflects approximately the actual situation in a
number of contexts (e.g., the basic Israeli support 1981 1985 1989
scheme has been a 50% grant scheme since its incep-
tion about 25 years ago). The absolute amounts will Australiat 8.4 6.9 3.0
Austria 7.4 7.9 8.0
also increase significantly once the R&D process in
Belgium 8.3 8.4 6.0
the economy takes off and this may happen after the
Canada 10.7 12.0 10.2
critical mass of projects triggers the above-mentioned Denmark 12.4 9.9 11.7
collective learning process. Finland? 4.2 3.2 3.1
Numerous obstacles may, however, lie in the way Francet 24.6 23.4 19.3
of effective take-off: bureaucratic procedures associ- Germany? 16.9 15.3 11.0
ated with extending the incentives, whether they are Greece$ 4.6 14.7 9.5
loans or subsidies (e.g., the first years of the Fidetec Iceland 38.3 15.8 10.9
program in Mexico, in connection with the require- Irelandt 13.7 12.4 6.9
Italy$ 8.8 16.9 16.3
ment that private banks rather than the government
Japan? 1.9 1.6 1.2
agency extend loans for R&D)15; a passive rather than 7.5 12.6 10.6
Netherlandsj:
a proactive policy toward the generation of R&D pro- New Zealand7 16.4 n.a. 6.7
jects, e.g., resulting from an attitude such as “if firms Norwayt 25.3 18.8 19.6
want to do R&D let them come to us with good pro- Portugal* 1.6 2.9 2.5
jects” (this may result from a misconceived perception Spain* 4.1 7.7 11.8
of the nature of firms and the difficulty of introducing Sweden? 13.6 11.6 11.5
new management and organizational routines); and Switzerland 1.3 1.8 0.8
absence of an explicit learning approach.r6 Finally, Turkey n.a. n.a. n.a.
United Kingdom? 30.0 23.0 17.2
effective take-off in a number of contexts, may be hin-
United States7 31.6 32.3 30.9
dered by the absence of explicit attempts at diffusing
the program especially among SME’s. Source: OECD, STIID Data Base, July 1992.
Although the rate of growth of government support *See OECD 1993.
will depend crucially on the rate of growth of indus- tDecrease in share.
trial R&D there are no apn’on’reasons to expect major SIncrease in share.
R&D AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY 455

Table 4. Patterns of government support and R&D growth -mature stage

Dynamism of Restructuring Reduction in Explicit reinforcement of Launching of


technology/firms of policy Gr Gr’ Gti

Dynamic “B” “c” “B” “B”. “c”*


Nondynamic ‘A.3

*delayed launch.

both to complex, firm-based R&D and to new (and in support of routine R&D (this requires government
probably more advanced) types of technological effort to be able to perform market failure analysis and to
such as cooperative, precompetitive R&D. I combine have identified the relevant taxonomy of projects).
the first two factors into a “dynamism of firms tech- This is due to the shift of resources toward more com-
nology” variable and use the term TI (= Technological plex etc. R&D (= r’ and Gr’ in the graph) and toward
Infrastructure) and TIP (= TI Policy) to indicate the set TZ (Gti in the graph).
of new types of technological effort and associated
policies which ideally would be receiving support or
launched at the mature phase. The set of possible
combinations of circumstances affecting the time pro-
file of government support to R&D is reflected in the
cells of Table 4. I will focus on three possible patterns
of government support (and correspondingly of R&D
growth) which are traced in Figure 1.

(a) Pattern A: Non-dynamic areas/fimts and partial


policy restructuring
I a: Pattern A
In this case the total R&D outlays schedule (R&D
in Figure 1a) is S-shaped and the government-support
schedule (G) is bell-shaped, i.e., we expect an
absolute reduction in total government support and an
even more drastic reduction in the share of total R&D G (=Gr + Gr’ + Rti)
paid for by the government. This is an interesting case
since it very sharply illustrates one implication of cat-
alytic policies (support might decline from 80% of
total R&D to 20% in a matter of years), although its
relevance might be limited to what will be termed
“routine” R&D. Moreover, partial policy restructur-
1b: Pattern B
ing might not have a very significant effect on growth
both due to lack of dynamism of technologies/firms
and to absence of positive restructuring towards r’
(“complex” R&D) and TIP.

(b) Pattern B: dynamic areas/firms and total policy


restructuring

In this case we expect the government-support 1c: Pattern C


schedule (G) of Figure l(b) to increase absolutely
probably with some monotonic reduction in the share Figure 1. Time patterns of R&D and of government support.
of total technological effort (R&D = r* + r’* + TI*) r*: “routine” R&D; r’ (r’*): “complex” R&D (“complex”
R&D resulting from an explicit promotion scheme); TI
being supported. Note that R&D’s S-curve if traced
(TI*): expenditures on technological infrastructure (techno-
within the same pair of axes would lie above the cor- logical infrastructure expenditures resulting from an explicit
responding schedule for Pattern A (due to the more promotion scheme); Gr: Government support of “routine”
dynamic context). Under total policy restructuring, R&D; Gr’: Government support of “complex” R&D; Gti:
government outlays do not decline despite a reduction Government support of technological infrastructure.
456 WORLD DEVELOPMENT

The impact of the total restructuring of technology A necessary condition for successful take-off and
policy under Pattern B is likely to be high, both consolidation of firm-based R&D and the possibility
because the dynamic context enables the experience of effecting the above-mentioned policy restructuring
associated with early, “routine” projects to be effec- is the adoption of a “learning” rather than a “planning”
tively harnessed for entering the “complex” (firm- approach to government policy. This is in line with an
based) R&D project areas, a fact that might lead to the evolutionary rather than a neoclassical perspective of
creation of a separately identifiable high-tech sector in innovation, economic change and technology policy
the economy (over and above the “diffusion” of R&D (Nelson and Winter, 1982; Metcalfe, 1993). A major
within the mid-tech and traditional sectors).i9 component of such approach is the transformation of
individual experience with R&D/innovation -
including that associated with identification, selection
(c) Pattern C: intermediate situations -
and management of projects within firms - into col-
nonmonotonic profiles
lective experience, i.e., into a body of more or less
codified knowledge about the process available to all
Situations lying between the two extremes could
firms. For the above to be effective it is clear that a
include dynamic areas on the one hand and only par-
systematic approach to R&D and technology policy
tial “positive” restructuring, i.e. either toward more
should be adopted, one emphasizing the accumulation
complex firm-based R&D or toward TIP.
and diffusion of intangibles and capabilities in the ini-
Alternatively significant delays in implementing TIP
tial phase (including activities associated with search)
take place due to bureaucratic inertia and opposition
- both to induce a system take-off and a transition to
of either firms or scientists (who are afraid that initiat-
maturity; and to set the base for policy restructuring in
ing TIP is a prelude to even sharper reductions in the
the mature phase. Both bureaucratic and political fac-
support of traditional activities). Whatever the partic-
tors may block either or both of these processes; more-
ular situation, the eventual reduction in Gr will not be
over, insufficient awareness of the need to develop
immediately compensated by an increase in Gti (see
policy capabilities may lead to a mediocre level of
Figure lc). The result might be a “scalloped” total
implementation. There is no doubt in my mind that a
government-support schedule with a period of relative
combination of long-termism and an entrepreneurial
(and even absolute) reduction in support being fol-
approach by government to the formulation and
lowed by one of increasing support (Figure lc).
implementation of industrial and technology policy is
It is clear that numerous intermediate cases could
the best assurance of success in this difficult and less-
be built which combine different circumstances both
known area of growth-promoting policies.
about what “should” be done and about what in fact is
The above characteristics imply that the framework
being done.
of analysis is adapted to analyze grant or loan-based sys-
The cost to the national economy of a delayed
tems where the implementing government agency could
launch of TIP (and corresponding to this, Git) - in
play the role ideally presented above. It would not be
terms of reduced rates of growth and reduced accumu-
adaptable to analyze automatic tax-incentive schemes
lation of intangible technological assets - may be
implemented by several countries such as Japan
large indeed.
(Nagaoka, 1990, p. 31), the United States, Canada,
Australia, and other OECD countries. Tax-incentives
5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS would be instances of neutral support of R&D but in
themselves would not conform to the features of a tech-
The paper presents a technology policy framework nology policy cycle. They certainly could be part of such
based on the view that the widespread diffusion of a policy framework in conjunction with a grant/loan
R&D in the business sector of an economy - starting scheme. In hybrid schemes of this kind grants or loans
with R&D performed by firms - is a collective, mul- (provided by a proactive government agency which also
tidisciplinary and cumulative learning process charac- adopted the “learning” approach) would be directed to
terized by dynamic increasing returns. The process, provide incentives to SME’s with little or no prior expe-
which partakes of characteristics by which a new tech- rience with R&D/innovation; to young firms and new,
nology variant takes hold in the market implies a cat- technology-based start-ups; and probably to a minor
alytic approach to technology policy based on a fun- extent, to larger firms especially those who have not yet
damental distinction between an infant and a mature routinized R&D. Tax incentives would be directed to
phase of policy implementation. Since certain aspects larger firms with larger R&D project portfolios and to
of learning associated with the management and orga- firms where the R&D function has already been rou-
nization of R&D within firms are both pervasive tinized. While tax incentives may be important to widely
(especially for NICs just entering the R&D business) extend R&D promotion even in our “mature phase” one
and to some extent exhaustible, a shift from extensive should not underestimate the importance of grants (and
neutrality in incentives to greater selectivity (and less to a lesser extent) of loans in inducing system take-off.
universality) is in order.z0 Table 5 also shows that grants most probably repre-
R&D AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY 457

sented the major tool used in the mid- 1980s for promot- however, it is clear that the market should take over a
ing industrial R&D in OECD countries.21 lot of the task of implementing R&D in the economy.
The framework is useful to analyze both the pat- The catalytic role of government will always be
tern of R&D and the relative share of publicly sup- important due to the need for stimulating increasingly
ported R&D through time. There are widespread cir- complex and novel types of R&D including precom-
cumstances for reducing the relative share of petitive, generic and collaborative projects; techno-
government through time and even, in some cases, the logical infrastructure; projects involving both firms
absolute outlays after a certain point. In all cases, and academic institutions or government laboratories;
and eventually, promotion of the integration of local
firms into world innovation networks. This role need
Table 5. Government policy instruments used to support
industrial R&D: 1985-T%* not decline through time and in some cases may even
outweigh the declining role played by governments in
Tax Grant + supporting “routine” R&D.
concessions Grants Loan loan The above framework makes technology policy
perfectly consistent with a market economy and even
United States 65 35 with attempts to reduce the role of government in the
Canadat 100 economy (for example, in Eastern Europe and Latin
Japant 35 25
American countries). It also provides a more balanced
CECt 100
view of the role of such policies in the process of
Denmark 80 20
France 25 75 structural change and growth than that flowing from
Germany 10 90 the World Bank report on growth of the East Asian
Greece 100 Economies (World Bank, 1993).12
Ireland 100 It is true that the catalytic role of technology policy
Italy 10 90 is intended to promote structural change, in accor-
Netherlands 50 40 10 dance with the structuralist approach to growth and
Portugal 100 development (Justman and Teubal, 1990, 1991) but
Spain 100
this should be interpreted broadly. Thus, the major
United Kingdom 65 35
Austria
structural change targets are the introduction and dif-
50 50
Finland 22.5 31.5 40 fusion of R&D within the economy (as we have seen
Norway 100 this is a discrete process because of dynamic scale
Swedens IO 30 economies, reinforced by the need to change firm rou-
Switzerland 100 tines); promoting the increased sophistication of
Australia 70 30 industry; and promotion a class or category of sectors
which we may term “high-tech.” The first two at least
*Approximate share of 1985-86: expenditures (percentage). are critical for economies undergoing liberalization
tTax concessions are not included.
and deregulation, under conditions of globalization
SApart from tax concessions and grants, there are equity
since they may enable a smoother integration into
capital of 2.5% and consignment subsidies of 40%.
Consignment subsidies involve research commissioned by world markets. Thus, neutral Technological policy (a
central government from private industry associations, central aspect of the policies undertaken) is an impor-
groups of private firms and government laboratories in tant component of growth promoting policies for
national cooperative projects such as the large-scale pro- NICs - a fact largely missed in the World Bank
jects, or the Fifth-Generation Computer Project. report on growth in Southeast Asian economies with
PExcluding technical R&D support appropriations which go its tendency to identify industrial and technology poli-
to private industry, universities and government-backed cies with selective infant industry promotion. It is
institutions via the National Board of Technical
worthwhile noting that the financing of this catalytic
Development, STU. Sweden also has a policy of guarantees
role of government, even under periods of price stabi-
which consists of 1% of the expenditure.
Source: OECD (1990). Loans are at face value, i.e. gross lization, should not deter Ministries of Finance, espe-
government budget expenditure. Note that for Germany, the cially given that the small or moderate sums initially
inclusion of data on support to industrial R&D by subcentral required to support R&D are intended - and in fact
authorities may influence comparability with other coun- will, if the policy is successful - to trigger a process
tries. making this support unnecessary in the future.

NOTES

1. This was first recognized, to my knowledge, from an industrial and technological policies for growth was put for-
analysis of the grant-based, neutral, industrial R&D promo- ward in Justman and Teubal (1990). in which a distinction
tion schemes launched by the Government of Israel since the was made between three levels of policy: a vision level; a
late 1960s (Teubal, 1984). The generalized role of neutral “strategic” level; and a “current support” level. The policy
458 WORLD DEVELOPMENT

approach ascribed then to the latter level is essentially neutral Teubal, 1992) is related to Marshallian external economies,
whereas selectivity prevails at the strategic level. The cat- that is, they are internal to the sector of “R&D performing
alytic approach of this paper introduces a more realistic tklS.”
dimension to the overall I&T policy framework, e.g., selec-
tivity and neutrality may coexist at both the strategic and the 6. The catalytic framework, therefore, explains the con-
current support level. See also Justman and Teubal(l986). tinuous restructuring of technological policy which normally
takes place - a shift from firm-based R&D to cooperative
2. A systematic analysis of the “learning to innovate” R&D, etc. See Dodgeson and Rothwell (1992) for the evolu-
occurring within an Israeli electronics firm can be found in tion of European policies in this regard.
Teubal(1982). Within the first 10 years of existence of the
Elscint - a diagnostic imaging instrumentation firms - a 7. The Arrow conditions are of course external
total of nine projects were identified, of which four were suc- economies (or private nonappropriability of the results of
cessive generations of nuclear-medicine “gamma cameras” R&D); indivisibilities; and the existence of inherent uncer-
and two successive generations of “scanners.” A strong tainty in this activity. All of these might deter potential
increase in direct project profitability across generations was investors (see Arrow, 1962) to socially desirable inven-
registered and this was interpreted in terms of spill-overs tions/innovations. The efficiency or degree of perfection of
from generation to generation. These spillovers were multi- capital markets will influence both the extent to which inno-
disciplinary, i.e., involved not only technical knowledge but vation -related risks may be reduced and the effective finan-
also knowledge about user needs, the coupling of technology cial constraint facing innovators.
to these needs, marketing, and the overall strategy of innova-
tion for this particular high tech area. Under very conserva- 8. For a more general attempt to generate a policy frame-
tive assumptions between one-third and two-thirds of total work for I&T policies supporting socially desirable activities
(direct and indirect) profitability of later generations of the (SDA’s) - which include both R&D and other activities -
“gamma camera” could be attributed to spillovers from ear- see Teubal(l994a).
lier projects. The analysis gives a concrete example of multi-
disciplinary, cumulative learning within an individual firm. 9. The importance of neutrality in R&D support has
A prior study of the whole biomedical electronic instrumen- finally been recognized in actual policy making. Twenty
tation sector in its infant phase identifies part of the collective years ago I am aware only of tax-relief mechanisms (United
learning process which the eight firms of the sector were States, Canada, etc.) and of Israel’s neutral subsidies-to-
undergoing. A particularly important aspect was learning R&D scheme. Nowadays, most countries have neutral R&D
about the relationship of complementarity and substitution schemes involving grants (OECD, 1990), although there is a
between R&D and marketing. When needs were clearly spectrum of specialized programs by technological area
defined more and more successful R&D might reduce the (biotechnology, information technology, materials). These
need for marketing; whereas when the increased R&D is latter programs should be viewed more in terms of offering a
associated with increasingly less known and new product menu of policy choices to firms; of adapting criteria to the
types (up to the point of launching completely new product particular requirements of each technological area; and as
classes) the relationship is one of complementarity, i.e., more devices for effective search strategies (see Teubal, 1994a). In
R&D requires more marketing for commercial success. See themselves they do not necessarily express implementation
Spiller and Teubal (1977). of selective policies.

3. An additional and no less important aspect of the not 10. The term “network entrepreneur” was used in Teubal,
purely technical learning pertains to the generation of new Yinnon and Zuscovitch (1991) to describe the entrepre-
projects. Experience in R&D and innovation generate neurial activity linked to the creation of a new user-pro-
numerous new ideas about possible commercially successful ducer network - one associated with a new class of capital
new projects. Correspondingly, the absence of such experi- goods. The objective of such a network is collective leam-
ence means that a major bottleneck in the penetration of ing for market-building. The network need not arise spon-
R&D into a NIC context not familiar with this activity is taneously in every case since user coordination to achieve
absence of (good) projects. This in fact explains the search- critical mass may be required initially. Similarly, the gov-
intensive feature of the early stage of policy implementation ernment agency may have to make a special effort in order
(Teubal, 1994a). to generate a network of R&D performers which may con-
tribute to the spread of knowledge about what is and how to
4. Justman and Teubal(l986) have broadened the notion do R&D.
of externalities from R&D or innovation to include organiza-
tional and management aspects of the process. In Teubal 11. The diversification of Elscint, an Israeli medical diag-
(1984) I stated that the objective of the R&D support policy nostic instrumentation firm active in the nuclear medicine
of the Government of Israel included the promotion of inno- area, to the CAT scanner area was significantly stimulated by
vation capabilities, i.e., explicit organizational and manage- a new support program at the Office of the Chief Scientist
ment components. (OCS) of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (“The National
Projects” Program of the second half of the 197Os), which
5. Alternatively, we may say that R&D is increasingly substantially increased the monetary incentives to R&D.
being undertaken “endogenously” by market forces (Teubal, CAT scanner R&D is more complex and multidisciplinary
1994a). An additional factor supporting such endogenization work than that undertaken for Gamma Cameras. Part of the
is “market-building” (see Teubal, 1994b and Justman and difference in scope and complexity of innovation is reflected
Teubal, 1993). Market-building in connection with advisory in product price: while gamma cameras were priced at that
and financial services linked to R&D and innovation (see time between $50,000 and $1OO,ooO per system (depending
R&D AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY 459

on the specific configuration ordered), CAT scanners were progress, through the extensive undertaking of case studies
priced at a minimum of half a million dollars. and attempts at codification of the experience, have not taken
place.
12. A description of the process of building markets for
novel technological services in connection with Basic 17. It may be that the early years of implementation of a
Technological Infrastructure Policy (Basic TIP) is presented broad R&D promotion program may in fact be characterized
in Justman and Teubal (1995). Market-building in our con- by an increase in the share of the activity supported by gov-
text of promotion of firm-based R&D rather than TI would ernment. This because prior to the program. whatever R&D
preserve some of the main features mentioned there. that took place received little if any support from public (or
external) sources.
13. One reason is transactions costs associated with
accessing the results of R&D through explicit contracting in 18. The sample includes small, large. leading, and
“technologyiknowledge” markets. The relationship how- peripheral countries during the 1980s. The exceptions to
ever, between user-performed R&D and externally supplied the relative decline of government’s share are first and fore-
R&D may be much more complex, involving elements of most peripheral countries catching-up in R&D such as
complementarity together with substitution. Thus, in house Ireland. Portugal, and Spain. In these countries broad sup-
R&D - by reducing transactions costs associated with port of R&D presumably began during this decade and our
external purchase of knowledge - may be a condition for conceptual framework is consistent with an increase in the
accessing the latter source. Moreover, to some extent, the share of government initially (see previous note). A similar
availability of organizations externally supplying commis- picture holds for Italy. The other case is the Netherlands.
sioned R&D results may, in some cases, be a condition for which stands as an exception within the category of
initiation of R&D serving the needs of particular types of advanced OECD countries. It would be interesting to know
firms and industrial branches @ME‘s in traditional and mid- if the increase in the share of government in business enter-
tech areas). Sectorial technological centers for example may prise R&D in this country during the 1980s results from the
be loci of R&D capabilities serving such firms especially initiation of new programs supporting complex and new
(but not exclusively) when needs for R&D are pressing and forma of innovation and technological development. Set
when R&D is not yet feasible in the short term due to firm below for “alternative time-profiles of government support
size or other factors. for R&D.”

14. Following Teubal, Yinnon and Zuscovitch (1991), 19. This has been the case of Israel, after the launch of the
we may term this a N3-network to distinguish it from the industrial R&D support scheme in 1970. Both Elscint and the
component-assembler network (Nl) and the user-producer biomedical diagnostic areas in which this firm specialized
network (N3). The project followers and functional spe- during the first half of the 1970s are indicative of a “dynamic
cialists of the Office of the Chief Scientist, Ministry of firm/technology” context. The same combination of
Industry and Trade, have traditionally performed this dynamic areas and firms was present elsewhere within hiph-
informal role with success (this information may be very tech industry.
helpful for new firms entering the circle of R&D-perform-
ing firms). The role of the government agency would also 20. The emphasis on neutrality at the infant stage - while
involve codification of the information and experience: clear from the early experience of some countries such as
and analysis. Teubal and Zuscovitch (1994) used the term Israel (Teubal, 1984) - was considered until recently as
“general discriminating capabilities” to indicate - within unjustified since strict application of Arrovian market-failure
N2 -the increased capacity of a producer to know how to analysis, with its emphasis on technological or template
couple technology to needs. In our context, this would externalities. would point to more selective policies. The
mean an increased capacity to identify the configuration of approach of this paper provides an “evolutionary” market-
policy tools and actions appropriate to a particular type ol failure analysis which justifies and even configures govem-
user/projects. ment intervention even in the presence of “pervasive” exter-
nalities. The combination of such externalities and dynamic
15. One of the advantages of a grant-based system over a scale economies would justify a relatively neutral promotion
loan-based system, especially for small and medium-sized at the early stage of the policy cycle.
enterprises, is avoiding the need of obtaining loan-repayment
guararitees from recipient firms. This requirement has cre- 21. The experience of countries with R&D promoting
ated difficulties during the early stages of R&D promotion loans and grants have not always conformed to the theory of
programs in some Latin American countries such as Mexico this paper. While Israel had one of the earliest of such sya-
and even Chile. The advantages of a grant-based promotion terns with success in take-off, it has not restructured in a
system are evidenced by the Israeli experience, at least in the timely fashion, not in the sense of reducing support for rou-
critical early years prior to (and immediately following) tine projects nor (despite some examples to the contrary) in
‘*take-off.” the sense of early support of precompetitive. cooperative
projects (Teubal, 1993). Mexico is an example where take-
16. The Israeli R&D promotion system has followed some off has either not begun or has been significantly hindered
elements of a “learning approach,” especially as regards the by bureaucratic procedures associated with a loan-based
informal transmission of experience among firms, e.g., on system. The Chilean broad-based promotion system, in
the part of project overseers. This may also have reflected place since 1992-93, has been fairly successful, although
some of the advantages of being a relatively small country. no clear take-off has taken place during the first 2-3 years
Explicit intensification and formalization of the learning of operation.
460 WORLD DEVELOPMENT

22. Their emphasis in identifying “interventionist” indus- some cases major component of government growth-pro-
trial/technology policy in successful Asian countries with moting policies included the promotion of R&D and capabil-
selective industry promotion of targeted industries is proha- ities per se and not only as part of infant industry promotion,
bly misplaced. Although additional research on these coun- (Korea and Japan seem to he cases of this sort).
tries’ experience may be required, my presumption is that in

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