Technical Research | November 21, 2011

Daily Technical Report

Sensex (16372) / NIFTY (4906)
On Friday, once again our Benchmark indices opened with a downside gap and traded with negative bias during the first half of the session. However, markets found intraday support near the gap area of 4860 4828 and managed to close marginally above 4900. On the sectoral front, Realty, FMCG and Metal counters were among the major losers. There was no sector in the positive territory. The advance decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters (A=882 D=1989). (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
Momentum oscillators viz. the RSI and the Stochastic on the Weekly chart are negatively poised. We are witnessing a negative crossover of 3 & 8
Source: Falcon

Weekly EMA. The stochastic oscillator on the Daily chart has given a

Actionable points:
View Resistance levels Support level Neutral 4925 5013 4845 4718

positive crossover. The Daily chart exhibits a Bullish Hammer pattern at

78.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. This pattern needs a confirmation.

Trading strategy:
Markets registered a Weekly low of 16165 / 4845 and managed to give a minor bounce on Fridays session, which pushed indices higher to close marginally above 16300 / 4900 levels. We are now observing that the momentum oscillators and 3 & 8 EMA on the weekly chart are negatively poised. Thus, if indices sustain below the 16165 / 4845 level, further weakness is expected in the coming weeks. This may result into a sharp decline to test crucial and important support level of 15745 / 4718. A move below this level may reinforce strong negative momentum, which can drag indices lower to test 15650 15330 / 4675 4540 levels.

On the other hand, the Daily chart depicts a Bullish Hammer Japanese Candlestick pattern. The said pattern will be confirmed only if indices manage to break and close above Fridays high of 16397 / 4925. In this scenario, markets may bounce up to 16669 16900 / 5013 5085 levels. Therefore, we reiterate our view that traders should stay light on positions and follow strict stop losses.

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Technical Research | November 21, 2011

Bank Nifty Outlook - (8850)

Bank nifty opened with a minor downside gap and witnessed selling pressure during the first half of the session. However, index found intraday support near 8700 level and bounced back sharply during the second half to close almost at the highest point of the day. We are now observing a Dragon Fly Doji candle stick, which is a reversal pattern and needs confirmation in the form of a close above 8875 level. We are also witnessing a positive crossover in momentum oscillator viz., the Stochastic. Combining above technical evidences, if Bank Nifty crosses Fridays high of 8875, then it is likely to rally towards 9165 9265 levels. The said pattern will be negated only if Bank Nifty closes below 8706 level. On the downside, 8706 - 8626 levels may act as support levels for the day. Actionable points: View
Positive Above Expected Targets Support Levels Bullish
Source: Falcon

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

8875 9165 9265 8706 - 8626

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Technical Research | November 21, 2011

Positive Bias: Stock Name Sintex Industries Jain Irrigation 5 Day EMA 96 118.10 20 Day EMA 109.20 122.60 Expected Target 103 129.50 Remarks View will change below 83 View will change below 113

Negative Bias:

Stock Name Max India JSW Steel

5 Day EMA 173 642.65

20 Day EMA 179.90 642.90

Expected Target 155 577

Remarks View will change above 178 View will change above 636

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Technical Research | November 21, 2011

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 16,079 4,809 8,643 1,118 150 921 1,659 387 257 497 293 306 193 1,525 363 397 623 445 2,063 116 380 739 105 2,697 196 516 57 457 1,181 704 890 158 245 828 96 424 69 290 777 391 84 82 1,669 175 687 104 486 21 165 92 378 1,057 353 S1 16,225 4,857 8,747 1,134 151 943 1,676 392 266 509 300 310 199 1,541 372 401 634 452 2,128 120 385 754 108 2,719 199 526 60 466 1,213 721 915 160 252 852 98 442 71 298 793 401 87 88 1,698 179 709 106 493 22 168 95 385 1,072 364 PIVOT 16,311 4,887 8,810 1,149 152 962 1,702 397 276 519 306 314 203 1,560 380 404 641 457 2,165 122 389 764 110 2,742 203 535 61 472 1,233 739 932 163 259 870 101 453 73 307 802 411 90 94 1,732 186 724 108 498 24 170 96 392 1,091 370 R1 16,457 4,935 8,913 1,165 154 983 1,719 402 285 531 314 318 208 1,576 389 408 652 463 2,230 126 394 780 113 2,764 206 545 64 481 1,265 756 957 165 266 894 104 471 75 315 818 421 93 101 1,761 190 747 110 504 25 173 99 398 1,106 381 R2 16,543 4,965 8,976 1,180 155 1,002 1,745 407 296 542 320 323 212 1,595 397 411 659 468 2,267 128 398 789 115 2,786 210 554 65 487 1,285 775 974 167 273 912 106 482 77 324 827 431 95 107 1,795 197 762 112 509 27 175 100 405 1,124 387

Technical Research Team

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Technical Research | November 21, 2011 Technical Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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