Doc. No.

: DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 22 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

Natural Disaster Management and Recovery System (NDMRS)

Project Proposal

November 2011
Prepared by K. Suchendar, Sc F, Tapas Kumar Hazra, Sc F Arvind Kumar Pathak, Sc E, Ajit Chaudhary, Sc E, Gopal Krishna Sahu, Sc E, DRDL DLRL RCI DRDL NSTL

Defence Research & Development Organization, Ministry of Defence, Govt. of India

Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

Executive Summary
Natural Disaster Management and Recovery System (NDMRS)
It is proposed to develop a Natural Disaster Management and Recovery System (NDMRS), which can be used to provide information regarding potential disasters to the affected zone in advance and to provide efficient assistance in recovery. The need for such a system arises from the fact that India is a vast country experiencing various types of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, cyclones etc. and natural disasters account for more loss to human population as well as resources in India than any other means such as war, accidents, etc and the existing system is not very effective. Between 1988 & 2010, flood, cyclones and earthquake have killed an average of approx. 10000 lives per year and affected 25 million populations per year. The loss of properties due to natural disaster is estimated at $70M per year (GOI India status report on natural disaster). This system is very important in order to save the valuable human resources, and take preventive actions to reduce loss of properties. The Natural Disaster Management and Recovery System (NDMRS) shall analyze and predict potential disasters with at least 70% accuracy, 24 hours before the onset of the disaster. The NDMRS shall assist the recovery by planned mitigation procedures and interacting with other agencies such as Government agencies related to Rescue Operations, Military, Police, Hospitals and Fire Fighting Services. The assistance shall be provided within 4 hours of the disaster and recovery of 80% casualty in less than 12 hours. This project involves R&D in the area of disaster prediction & management with historical database, establishing sensors and networking them with control centers. The NDMRS System of Systems shall consist of three importance systems 1. Surveillance Sensor Network System (SSNS) : It consist of various sensors such as Satellite based surveillance sensors, Weather radars surveillance sensors, Seismic and acoustic sensors etc for disaster prediction and recovery operations. These sensors are networked into an intelligent sensor system providing the situation awareness. 2. Disaster Management Operations Centres (DM-OC): It is the brain of the NDMRS. It performs disaster analysis, prediction and provides recovery assistance based on the sensors network data, existing disaster database and Geographic Information System (GIS) of the country The information shall be published on an Internet portal and interacts with various agencies such as Government agencies related to Rescue Operations, Military, Police, Hospitals, Red Cross and Fire Fighting Services. It takes on the role of a massive SOS when interacting with the various agencies in a loosely coupled but with a definite goal. 3. Communication Network System (CNS): It comprises of a number of Communication Terminals (CT), which can communicate to each other. Each communication terminal has multiple means of communication such as Satellite, Leased Line and RF microwave links to provide timely and guaranteed transmission of the messages. In addition to these, general public and other Government agencies shall be communicated through the Internet, email and messaging systems.
Comment [Ag3]: I suggest to refer to the "network" which comprises of communication links and other applications as well provided by the network.

Comment [Ag1]: Is it possible to have lower probability prediction for more than one day? It will help Comment [Ag2]: In many cases there is an international support also. So you should consider the international networking too. To foreign government and services as well

Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted I suggest to state clearly that the project will be done in 2 or 3 pahses. In the first phase to propose to build first system in one area of region (and to write how long it will take and the budget needed) and after that to build a local systems for the other regions and to connect all regions to a national overall system Allso it is suggested to add 12 months for detailed feasibility study! The scope of the project would be to a. Establish (5 + 5) DM-OC centres in 5 zones of India (North, South, East, West and Central) with rRedundant deployment. b. Establish a Communication Network system using multiple Communication Terminals (CT). (5 + 5) CT for the Operation Centres, 5 CT for existing Weather Radars, 5 CT for existing Surveillance Satellite Ground Stations and 5 CT for connecting existing Meteorological departments having access to seismic and acoustic sensors in the country. The total number of systems that shall be developed and delivered are Operation Centres = 10 Communication Terminals = 25 The project schedule from sanction till delivery and deployment of all systems in the respective sites shall be 5 years. The project will be executed in a phased manner and the deployment of the first operational system shall be in 3 years which shall be operational with limited resources. Subsequent systems shall be developed and integrated incrementally. The total cost of the project is estimated to be Rs 430 Crore (approx $ 86 M).
Comment [Ag6]: Use the word "initiation" Comment [Ag5]: What is 5+5? Comment [Ag4]: What is 5+5?

Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 2 1. PROJECT PROPOSAL .......................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 1. 2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2. Need and Justification ............................................................................................................... 5 Gap Analysis .6 Mission Statement ..................................................................................................................... 6 Proposed System of Systems ..................................................................................................... 7 SoS Architecture ....................................................................................................................... 7 Architecture Breakdown Structure (ABS)................................................................................. 8 System Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) .............................................................................. 8 Advantages ................................................................................................................................ 9

THE MARKET ................................................................................................................................ 1110 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Market Environment Analysis............................................................................................. 1110 Stakeholders ........................................................................................................................ 1110 Customers............................................................................................................................ 1111 Market Size Projection ........................................................................................................ 1211 Competitive Advantages ..................................................................................................... 1211 Time To Market (TTM) ...................................................................................................... 1211

3.

PROJECT STRUCTURE ................................................................................................................. 1312 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Organization Background ................................................................................................... 1312 Project Team ....................................................................................................................... 1312 Project Vision ...................................................................................................................... 1312 Project Management Structure and leading team ................................................................ 1312 SoS Implementation Policy ................................................................................................. 1413 Pricing Policy ...................................................................................................................... 1413 Partners and Cooperation .................................................................................................... 1413

4.

RISK ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................ 1514 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Main Risks .......................................................................................................................... 1514 Main Risks Mitigation ......................................................................................................... 1514 SWOT ................................................................................................................................. 1615 Fallback and exit plans ........................................................................................................ 1615

5.

FINANCIAL PLAN AND SCHEDULE .......................................................................................... 1716 5.1 5.2 5.3 Resources ............................................................................................................................ 1716 Project Cost ......................................................................................................................... 1716 Schedule .................................................................................................................................. 16

6.

SYSTEM SIMULATION & EVALUATION17

Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

1. PROJECT PROPOSAL Natural Disaster Management and Recovery System (NDMRS)

It is proposed to develop a Natural Disaster Management and Recovery System (NDMRS), which can be used to provide information regarding potential disasters to the affected zone in advance and to provide efficient assistance in recovery.

1.1 Need and Justification

The need for such a system arises from the fact that India is a vast country experiencing various types of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, earthquakes, cyclones, landslides, Tsunami etc. on account of its unique geo-climatic and socio-economic conditions and natural disasters account for more deaths in India than any other reason such as war, accidents, etc and the existing system is not very effective.

Figure 1.2 Hazard Zone in India

Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted As per UNDP report 2011, India is one of the ten worst disaster prone countries of the world and Out of 35 states and union territories in the country, 27 of them are disaster prone. Almost 58.6 per cent of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of moderate to very high intensity; over 40 million hectares (12 per cent of land) are prone to floods and river erosion; of the 7,516 km long coastline, close to 5,700 km is prone to cyclones and tsunamis; 68 per cent of the cultivable area is vulnerable to drought and hilly areas are at risk from landslides and avalanches.
Comment [Ag7]: It is suggested to add a reference

Fig 1.1 Losses due to Disaster in India As per GOI India status report on natural disaster, between 1988 & 2010, flood, cyclones and earthquake have killed an average of approx. 10000 lives per year and affected 25 million populations per year. The direct loss of properties due to natural disaster is estimated at $70M (Rs. 350 Crores) per year on an average. These data indicate that such a system is very important and required to save the valuable human resources, and take preventive actions to reduce loss of properties.

1.2 Gap Analysis

As per the UNDP report 2011, India has already identified the disaster mitigation and recovery as one prime aspect of faster growth of country. It has proposed to develop an agency National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) at the national level replicating it at state level too. Also there exist multiple agencies for predicting and managing various types of disasters and at the same time, assistance and recovery also exist at multiple levels by various agencies. However, many a time, it is the timely response to a disaster which is very critical. The information revolution of 21st century has provided this edge towards the time response. The response of agencies is dependent on not only better preparedness to provide facilities but also on: Providing connectivity between participants Faster information to the agencies concerned Capability to localize the situational awareness and its relevant information
Formatted: Bulleted + Level: 1 + Aligned at: 0.57" + Indent at: 0.82" Comment [Ag8]: Do you have something similar for the defence?

Data base towards critical area of concern etc. Although information is available in fragmented manner with various agencies for different kind of disasters, a collaborative effort is required towards management of disaster in a coherent and efficient manner by information superiority achieved through data capture, repository generation, information integration and information provision to necessary agents of action. The system proposed is an effort to fill this gap by integrating the system with existing SOS of disaster management in India.

Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

1.3 Mission Statement

The project Natural Disaster Management and Recovery System (NDMRS) propose to build and operate a node based networked system which, for an affected zone of 10km2 and an average population of 500 per km2, can Provide information in the affected zone regarding potential disaster with at least 70% accuracy o 24 hours before cyclone & Flood o o as per the information provided by collaborating agencies for drought, Tsunami etc. Real time information in order to build the SA picture and for distributions to participants
Comment [Ag9]: I believe that the system is needed in town so the average population there is larger

assist in the recovery by planned mitigation procedures and interacting with other agencies such as Government agencies related to Rescue Operations, Military, Police, Hospitals and Fire Fighting Services so that the assistance to the needed environment shall be provided within 4 hours of onset of the disaster and

assist in recovery of 80% casualty in less than 12 hours.

1.4 Proposed System of Systems

It is proposed to built the NDMRS on a System of Systems approach based state-of-the-art technological solution to provide information superiority and faster recovery in the affected zone of natural disaster. The NDMRS system shall be realized using three main systems Sensors Network, Operations Centers and

Communication Network Systems. The SOS aims at Data collection and node based generation of information repository Collaboration with agencies for information receipt and dissemination provides immediate communication and surveillance to disaster affected zone to mitigate the disaster efficiently collaboration with agencies for faster and effiecient assistance and recovery
Formatted: No bullets or numbering

What is missing in your description is the analysis of the resources needed such as ambulances, hostpitals,

rescue vehicles, helicopters, firefighters, etc..at least you have to refer to this issue at this stage and not only at the end of this document

1.5 SoS Architecture

This project involves R&D in the area of disaster prediction & management with historical database, establishing sensors and networking them with control centers. The NDMRS System of Systems shall consist of three importance systems as shown in figure:

Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

Fig.1.3. SOS architecture of NDMRS The brief description of the systems of the proposed SOS is: 1. Surveillance Sensor Network System (SSNS) : It consist of a network of various sensors such as Satellite based surveillance sensors, Weather radars surveillance sensors, Seismic and acoustic sensors etc. These sensors are networked into an intelligent sensor system providing the situation awareness. 2. Disaster Management Operations Centres (DM-OC): It is the brain of the NDMRS. It performs disaster analysis, prediction and provides recovery assistance based on the sensors network data, existing disaster database and Geographic Information System (GIS) of the country. The information shall be published on an Internet portal and interacts with various agencies such as Government agencies related to Rescue Operations, Military, Police, Hospitals, Red Cross and Fire Fighting Services. It takes on the role of a massive SOS when interacting with the various agencies in a loosely coupled but with a definite goal. 3. Communication Network System (CNS): It comprises of a number of Communication Terminals (CT), which can communicate to each other. Each communication terminal has multiple means of communication such as Satellite, Leased Line and RF microwave links to provide timely and guaranteed transmission of the messages. In addition to these, general public and other Government agencies shall be communicated through the Internet, email and messaging systems.

1.6 Architecture Breakdown Structure (ABS)

Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

Fig 1.4 : Architecture Breakdown Structure

1.7 System Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) 1.7.1 WBS of DM-OC (A)
The disaster management and operation center performs the following two major functions as follows: A1. Developing a Disaster Analysis System A1.1 Disaster Database of country A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5 A2. GIS consisting of various layers of info showing potential Disaster areas Software for analysis and prediction Reporting system to publish report in Internet portal and to forward to relevant Government agencies for action Dynamic inputs from Weather radars and Satellite surveillance systems

A.1.6 Preplanned Mitigation procedures to be developed for each potential disaster Disaster Recovery System A2.1 A2.2 A2.3 A2.4 Choice of the best Mitigation and recovery solution for the current / impending disaster Software for choosing solution Manual correction of the solution Internet portal and communication facilities

Operation Centre: Subsystems

Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

Fig 1.5 : Subsystems of Operations Centre

1.7.2 WBS of Communication Terminals (CT)

The communication between the Sensors, Operation Centres and External actuators shall be done using Communication Terminals (CT). Three types of communication media are planned for both data and voice communication. These communication systems are housed in a shelter. The salient features of the communication system: Ku-Band VSAT Link (up to 2 Mbps Star Connectivity) Line-of-Sight (LOS) Radio Communication (2 Mbps) Optical Fiber Communication [OFC] (Leased Lines) These three modes of communication namely Line (OFC), Radio (LOS) and Satellite Link, will ensure 24x7 operation of the NDMRS System.

1.8 Advantages
The NDMRS provides an effective mechanism to handle natural disasters to safeguard human population as well as natural resources in India. The proposed NDMRS system due to its architectural advantages and use of state-of-the-art technologies for analysis and recovery mechanism will not only provide relief to the people, but also be able to save natural resources worth many millions.

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2. THE MARKET
2.1 Market Environment Analysis
Natural disaster has always affected our world from the beginning of Time, but their impact on human beings has been on the rise the world over. The developed countries are well equipped to cope with disaster through well-functioning disaster mitigation, preparedness and response mechanism, but the developing countries are ill equipped in terms of each of the above three parameters. Among all the continents, Asia is considered to be most vulnerable to disaster. During 1991 to 2000, Asia accounted for as much as 83 percent of the population affected by disaster globally. India is highly prone to natural disasters, and country has experienced very severe natural disaster at regular interval. Among the various types of natural disaster affecting the different parts of the country, flood, cyclones, earthquake and droughts cause maximum damage to life and property. Heat wave, cold wave, avalanches, landslides, fire and pest attack are also taking heavy tolls in life and property. The latur earthquake of 1993-94, the orissa super cyclone of 1999, the Bhuj earthquake of 2001, and Tsunami of December 2004 are some of the most severe natural disaster that have struck the country in recent past. Although the direct loss of properties due to natural disaster is estimated at $70M per year (GOI India status report on natural disaster) the indirect loss is many fold as There is loss due to loss of manpower and resources affecting future growth There is a cost involved in rebuilding the area experiencing the disaster The psychological effect on human being is massive affecting future productivity such as effect of earthquake on people of Gujarat and effect of tsunami on people of Chennai. Many a time, a natural disaster can trigger other manmade disaster, which can have lasting effect. For example: recent tsunami in Japan caused nuclear disaster in Fukishima, Daiichi etc. Countries economy and development gets severely affected by such disaster thus there is strong requirement to have an efficient mechanism to minimize this losses. Also as per National Policy for Disaster Management (NPDM 2009), the objective is to build a safer and disaster resilient India by developing a holistic, proactive, multi-disaster oriented and technology driven strategy through a culture of prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response. With this regard, it is proposed to develop a Natural Disaster Management and Recovery System (NDMRS), which can be used to predict potential disasters and provide recovery assistance. The need for such a system arises from the fact that this system is very important in order to save the valuable human resources, and take preventive actions to reduce loss of properties. The estimated cost of the project is Rs. 430 Crores ($ 86M), which shall be recovered within two years after Project Deployment, in terms of properties saved.

2.2

Stakeholders
Natural Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) under Ministry of Home affairs of Government of India (GOI) will be the main stake holder of the NDMRS project. The other stake holder will be the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), managed by World Bank under United National Development

Comment [Ag10]: Why not the Ministry of Defense too?

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Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted Programme. The Other stakeholders shall be the external actuators such as the Police, Military, Hospitals etc. The successful implementation of the above project will become reference for many countries which are fighting against natural disasters.

2.3

Customers
The project will be executed for the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) under Ministry of Home, Govt. of India.
Comment [Ag11]: I suggest that it will be a joint effort for the MoH and the MoD Comment [Ag12]: Here you have just to give the average number if loss and saving each year

2.4

Market Size Projection

This is a one-time implementation project for the Government of India. Hence the requirement of the project is based on the lives and properties saved and the market size is directly proportional to the saving towards the GDP of the country.

2.5

Competitors
This Project can be implemented only by major organizations. As this project should be implemented not with a view of earning profit, but with the view of saving lives and properties, this can only be implemented best by a Government agency. DRDO is a Government agency with a vast experience in the various technology areas for implementing this project.

2.6

Time To Market (TTM)

The first operational system with limited resources is proposed to be deployed in 3 years and to be operated with limited resources. Subsequent systems is proposed to be developed in parallel and deployed not later than 5 years from the date of sanction of the project.

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Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

3. PROJECT STRUCTURE
3.1 Organization Background
This project required research & development in the area of disaster management and prediction, establishing sensors and networking them with control centers. DRDO is a research and development organization with vast experience in the field of electronics, communication, networking etc and developing the systems of national importance to the defence on a turnkey basis. have successfully designed, developed and delivered massive systems with countrywide networking to the Indian Defence forces has a lot of expertise in the area of sensor systems, communication systems, Command & Control systems and integrating them to form System of Systems

3.2

Project Team
The project team is working in DRDO for the last fifteen years and has experience in designing systems in

various capacities for users. The project team have the knowledge of relevant technologies required for the development of NDMRS system, the required infrastructure are available within India and have the required expertise in system design, execution and integration.

3.3

Project Vision
To design, develop and deliver a state-of-the-art NDMRS system for natural disaster analysis, prediction,

recovery and assistance within cost and time schedules and with high quality and maintenance procedures.

3.4

Project Management Structure and leading team

The Project Management will be led by Programme Director NDMRS, with structure given below. The

Programme Director will lead the team with 3 Project Director and 5 Area Director. Each Project Director will guide 5 Area Project managers in the respective domain at different area location. The Area Project manager will also report to individual Area
Programme Director NDMRS

Director

on

day

to

day

basis.

Project Director SSNS

Project Director DM-OC

Project Director CNS

Area-1 Director

Area-5 Director

Area-1 Project Manager SSNS

Area-5 Project Manager SSNS

Area-1 Project Manager DM-OC

Area-5 Project Manager DM-OC

Area-1 Project Manager CNS

Area-5 Project Manager CNS

Fig 4 : Project Management Structure

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3.5

SoS Implementation Policy

a. Establish (5 + 5) DM-OC centres in 5 zones of India (North, South, East, West and Central) with Redundant deployment. Establishing a Communication Network using multiple Communication Terminals (CT). (5 + 5) CT for the Operation Centres, 5 CT for existing Weather Radars, 5 CT for existing Surveillance Satellite Ground Stations and 5 CT for connecting existing Meteorological departments having access to seismic and acoustic sensors in the country. The total number of systems that is proposed to be developed and delivered in Operation Centres = 10 Communication Terminals = 25 Phase 1 are
Comment [Ag13]: What is 5+5?

The project will be executed in a phased manner. In the first phase, the scope of the project would be to

b.

3.6

Pricing Policy

Comment [Ag14]: Didnt understand what did you mean by pricing policy? Do you intent to charge for the services?

The NDRMS will be a service oriented organization under NDMA and will be rendering its service to all the customers. The facility is planned on BOT (built, operate and transfer) basis or as desired by govt of India alongwith NDMA. Hence The pricing of the service is proposed to be based on Govt policy towards its effect Grant by Govt towards working capital and operational expenditure Sharing of revenue thus generated among the stake holder Cost incurred towards the services rendered by collaborating and servicing agencies

3.7

Partners and Cooperation

Comment [Ag15]: Is the DRDO executing progects for other government departments rather than the MoD? Comment [Ag16]: Please "blow up" those acronyms

The project will be executed on the turnkey basis by DRDO; however the collaboration for various elements can be taken from organizations like ISRO for sensors and BSNL for communication network.

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Doc. No. : DRDO/NDMRS/PR01 Date of Issue : 21 / 11 / 2011 Classification : Restricted

4. RISK ANALYSIS
4.1
1.

Main Risks
Organizational change: - restructuring might bring in changes in the structure which may result in new policy;

The following are considered as risks to be borne for this project:

2.

Changes in user requirements Product usability: - Changes in user requirements in between project stages may reduce the product usability perceived in the beginning and might not allow the project to be completed in schedule;

3.

Availability of qualified experts : Difficulty in recruiting qualified Remote Sensing Expert, GIS and Database Specialists, Network & communication specialists might delay project implementation; Availability of data : Difficulty in acquiring some of the data required for the project in a timely manner; Workforce attrition : Risk of losing team members to NGOs and Private Sectors; Lack of commitment & motivation from members of the Multi-Hazards Team (MHTs) resulting to delays in hazards, vulnerability and risks assessments;

4. 5. 6.

7. Physical security: Increasing insecurity in the operational area may hamper work. 4.2
Sl. No. 1.

Main Risks Mitigation

Main Risk Organizational change Remarks on Risk mitigation As the project is of national importance and DRDO have a wide experience in handling such a massive project, it will ensure the continuity of manpower over the lifecycle of the project. 2. Changes in user User will be included as a part of implementation team and modern methodology to capture the requirements in the project initiation phase will be used to ensure minimum changes. of For such a project it is difficult to employ all the expert, however the service od qualified experts will be ensured through consultancies and participation of such organization through collaboration. Various methodologies to forecast scheduled requirements of the data will be used to ensure the availability of data on time. The working environment as well as the compensation to the workforce will be tried to keep in line with the best in the industry . 6. Lack of commitment & motivation Physical Security Better explanations about the requirements to the workforce Various motivational exercises Better work environment and compensation Collaboration with local security agencies

requirements

3.

Availability qualified experts

4.

Availability of data on time

5.

Workforce attrition

7.

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4.3

SWOT Analysis Strengths

The experience of DRDO and its team to handle large defence projects The large experienced and qualified human resource

Weaknesses
DRDO does not have direct experience in handling such projects Procedures in Govt organization

The strong market requirement as success of

the project provide impetus to growth of country

Opportunity

DRDO work in R&D for all activities of defence forces. In case of natural disaster, defence forces work as one of the stake holder and in fact the major participant in recovery mission. The project provide DRDO an opportunity to understand these aspects and provide better input to defence forces for handling such issues.

Threat
The vastness of country The multiplicity of disaster methods Collaboration with various organization

Large data input requirements and its

coordination

4.4

Fallback and exit plans

The project team have enough confidence to complete the project in scheduled time and cost, however in case the project team faces difficulty in meeting to do so, it envisaged that the enormity of the project as well as the importance of this project towards national progress will certainly allow the team to complete the project within tolerable limits. Also the project has been planned in phased manner and the implementation too in stages as first DM OC will be executed first. Hence the project success can be visualized from the stage 1 itself and can provide enough input towards right progress of the project. And if the team is unable to achieve the goals of stage 1 of phase 1, the project can be exited.

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5.
5.1 Resources

FINANCIAL PLAN AND SCHEDULE

The Manpower Requirements during execution phase is proposed to be as follow: Sl. No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Type Program Director Project Director Area Director Project Managers Working executives Working staff Total No. 1 3 5 15 60 120 204

The project shall also require the support for contract staffs on time to time as per need basis.

5.2 Project Cost

The total cost of the project is estimated to be Rs 400 Crores (approx $ 80 M). The brief breakup of the cost is given below: Sl. No 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Cost Element Operation Centre Communication Terminal Software development Sensors integration System Engineering & Program Management TOTAL Cost Rs Crores 10.0 8.0 20.0 4.0 50.0 Qty M$ 2.0 1.6 4.0 0.8 10.0 10 25 15 Total Cost Rs Crores 100 200 20 60 50 430 M$ 20 40 4 12 10 86

5.3

Schedule
The project schedule from sanction till delivery and deployment of all systems in the respective sites shall

be 5 years. The deployment of the first operational system shall be in 3 years and the system shall be operational with limited resources.

Development System-1 System-2 System-3 System-4 System-5 Integration 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Months

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6. SYSTEM SIMULATION AND EVALUATION

1. For an affected zone of 10km2 and an average population of 500 per km2, The proposed system is expected to: Provide information in the affected zone regarding potential disaster with at least 70% accuracy o 24 hours before cyclone & Flood o as per the information provided by collaborating agencies for drought, Tsunami etc. assist in the recovery by planned mitigation procedures and interacting with other agencies such as Government agencies related to Rescue Operations, Military, Police, Hospitals and Fire Fighting Services so that the assistance to the needed environment shall be provided within 4 hours of onset of the disaster and assist in recovery of 80% casualty in less than 12 hours. The affected population will be 5000 for a node serving for 10km2. In a case of disaster it is assumed that the % of injured population is 50 % i.e. 2500 and a casualty percentage of 15 % i.e. 750. Indian meteorological Agency can provide cyclone information 36 hour before and Indian Flood warning agency can provide information with respect to major rivers 24 hour before. Hence information can be provided to the affected zone 24 hour before for cyclone and flood. The prediction of earthquake is almost impossible hence only assistance and recovery action is possible. The prediction of Tsunami is possible but it is highly location specific towards response time availability. For Assistance in 4 hour Sl. No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Disaster occur Disaster pick up by sensor Sensor information to OC Localisation of disaster affected zones Locate the necessary actuators Inform the actuators Initialisation of actuator and its preparation Dispatch of relief team and its arrival at affected zone Total time Event & Activity Time line T0 15 min (max) 15 min (max) 30 min 15 min 15 min 1.0 hr 1.5 hr T0 + 4 hrs

Comment [Ag17]: I think you have to put this chapter prior to chapter 5

Comment [Ag18]: Agaun I suggest to take a buger number. A biger number represent also a national war disaster in an urban area

2. 3.

4. 5. 6.

7.

80 % Recovery in 12 hours Minimum injured population to be addressed: 2000 Minimum Casualty population to be addressed: 600 Capability Assumption o o
o

A doctor can treat 10 patient per hour for injury. An Ambulance require 2 hour for tansit between affected zone and hospitals. A military vehicle can carry 20 military personnel minimum.

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o A hospital can treat 500 OPD patients and will have 100 bed.

Requirements in the affected zone o 40 doctors o 4 hospitals o 10 ambulances o 5 Military vehicles o o 100 military personnel 200 NGO volunteers

With this capability and assumptions, it has been found that the recovery can be carried out for the required affected population in 6 hours. Sl. No. 1. 2. 3. 4. Disaster occur Relief to reach in affected zone Activation of recovery team Recovery of required affected population Total time Event & Activity Time line T0 4 hrs 2 hrs 6 hrs T0 + 12 hrs

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